{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1209, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0776, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0982, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2549, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1209 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0982 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0913 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0776 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0757 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0662, "0-1": 0.0982, "0-2": 0.0757, "0-3": 0.0384, "0-4": 0.0146, "0-5": 0.0045, "0-6": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0776, "1-1": 0.1209, "1-2": 0.0913, "1-3": 0.0464, "1-4": 0.0177, "1-5": 0.0054, "1-6": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0475, "2-1": 0.0723, "2-2": 0.0551, "2-3": 0.028, "2-4": 0.0107, "2-5": 0.0033, "2-6": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0191, "3-1": 0.0291, "3-2": 0.0222, "3-3": 0.0113, "3-4": 0.0043, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0058, "4-1": 0.0088, "4-2": 0.0067, "4-3": 0.0034, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0016, "5-3": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3002, "draw": 0.2549, "away_win": 0.4449 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5139, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4861, "btts_yes": 0.5493, "btts_no": 0.4507, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2178, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2991 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.86, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 7.22, "ATR": 6.98, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Leeds 1W-4D-5L vs Man Utd over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Bryan Mbeumo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.207, "away_lambda": 1.524, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1209, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3002, "draw": 0.2549, "away_win": 0.4449 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4449, "fair_spread": -0.317, "fair_total": 2.731, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.207, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.524, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5139, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5493, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2178, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2991, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.3205, "probability": 0.2742, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.4486, "probability": 0.3615, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Elvedi (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1145, "probability": 0.1082, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2567, "probability": 0.2264, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.731, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 902, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.1, "possession_away_pct": 50.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4449, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.32 goals and fair total 2.73.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Harry Wilson, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Sean Longstaff.", "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Benjamin Šeško, Carlos Baleba, Leny Yoro.", "Assist usage should flow through Anton Stach, Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.37 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Leeds": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "player_id": 834308, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 181, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0377, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0873, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "creation_factor": 1.0649, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.072, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2835, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2292, "combined_rank_score": 838.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8365, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christopher Díaz", "ranking": 2287 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Valenzuela", "ranking": 2288 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Calderón", "ranking": 2289 }, { "player_name": "Wesley", "ranking": 2290 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Chukwueze", "ranking": 2291 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergi Darder", "ranking": 2293 }, { "player_name": "Yangel Herrera", "ranking": 2294 }, { "player_name": "Cris Martínez", "ranking": 2295 }, { "player_name": "Matt Dench", "ranking": 2296 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Jae", "ranking": 2297 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9101, "expected_assists": 0.0911, "assists": 0.1002, "assist_rate": 0.1002, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1871, "total_shots": 0.6865, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.6476, "accurate_pass": 20.5928, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.2697, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1834, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6835, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6146, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9782, "crosses_total": 3.6395, "crosses_accurate": 1.1387, "touches": 51.5313, "possession_lost": 16.7631, "dispossessed": 0.6864, "duels_lost": 3.9312, "aerial_won": 0.7019, "aerial_lost": 0.694, "interceptions": 1.2598, "tackles_won": 0.8951, "tackles": 1.9572, "clearances": 1.5329, "total_contest": 1.8824, "won_contest": 0.8819, "challenges_lost": 0.7749, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 1.6289, "blocks": 0.0816, "big_chances_created": 0.245, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "ball_carries": 10.9658, "total_progression": 59.6534, "progressive_carries": 1.2379, "shots_off_target": 0.4993 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 50.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.5379, "creative_index": 0.3142, "expectedGoals": 0.0207, "expectedAssists": 0.0925, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1753 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9101352095603943, "model_output": 0.9101, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1139 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0905 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0493 } ], "others": -0.139, "total": 0.9101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120045 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.086084 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.062226 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.06133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045936 } ], "others_margin": -0.142061 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09112925827503204, "model_output": 0.0911, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.0911, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.169672 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096889 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.084521 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.068637 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042566 } ], "others_margin": -0.145987 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10023738443851471, "model_output": 0.1002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.1002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.118165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.111853 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.074915 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06646 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.055419 } ], "others_margin": -0.155033 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04164252430200577, "model_output": 0.0416, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.465546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.148717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.140354 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.113694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108933 } ], "others_margin": -0.05793 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04838022589683533, "model_output": 0.0484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0484, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.220866 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205772 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.166758 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.115632 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102737 } ], "others_margin": -0.097425 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18714384734630585, "model_output": 0.1871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0663 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.022 } ], "others": 0.0085, "total": 0.1871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.227723 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.202592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.173933 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119743 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.115881 } ], "others_margin": 0.046197 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6864627003669739, "model_output": 0.6865, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2468 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0416 } ], "others": -0.1101, "total": 0.6865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.246806 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.0613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.046701 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041587 } ], "others_margin": -0.110174 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.836483001708984, "model_output": 6.8365, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 6.8365, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.020921 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.020223 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.014202 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007955 } ], "others_margin": -0.012181 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assists": 0.1009, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.1884, "total_shots": 0.691, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.5026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assists": 0.1009, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.1884, "total_shots": 0.691, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.5026 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assists": 0.1009, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "skill_edge": -0.0466, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.765, "defender_skill": 0.8686, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8686 } ], "xg_override": 0.0405 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7065, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.691, "after": 0.668 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5026, "after": 0.4859 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1884, "after": 0.1821 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "creation_factor": 1.0649 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "creation_factor": 1.0649, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2292, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0377, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "creation_factor": 1.0649, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "scorer_weight": 0.0412, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0323, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1821, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.8365, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 27.8301, "accurate_pass": 20.7287, "duels_won": 5.204, "total_long_balls": 3.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1912, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0375, "crosses_total": 3.6635, "crosses_accurate": 1.1462, "touches": 51.8714, "possession_lost": 16.8737, "dispossessed": 0.6909, "duels_lost": 3.9571, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6986, "interceptions": 1.2681, "tackles_won": 0.901, "tackles": 1.9701, "clearances": 1.543, "total_contest": 1.8948, "won_contest": 0.8877, "challenges_lost": 0.78, "fouls": 0.7805, "fouls_drawn": 1.6397, "blocks": 0.0821, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 11.0382, "total_progression": 60.0471, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0377, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0873, "finishing_factor": 1.0729, "creation_factor": 1.0649, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.1009, "provider_weight": 0.0972, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.1268, "creation_factor": 1.0649, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ao Tanaka": { "player_id": 871886, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 180, "market_value": 16200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0564, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "creation_factor": 0.9861, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3146, "combined_rank_score": 1112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1780.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8088, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Valente", "ranking": 3144 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 3149 }, { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.755, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6906, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "total_shots": 0.9784, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.3104, "accurate_pass": 29.3323, "duels_won": 2.9591, "total_long_balls": 1.7008, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8916, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7451, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5872, "crosses_total": 1.5542, "crosses_accurate": 0.4552, "touches": 45.3564, "possession_lost": 6.8559, "dispossessed": 0.4276, "duels_lost": 2.5681, "aerial_won": 0.323, "aerial_lost": 0.3925, "interceptions": 1.008, "tackles_won": 0.9276, "tackles": 1.607, "clearances": 0.9221, "total_contest": 0.691, "won_contest": 0.3837, "challenges_lost": 0.4724, "fouls": 1.0922, "fouls_drawn": 0.6454, "blocks": 0.0312, "big_chances_created": 0.1239, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 10.365, "total_progression": 24.3354, "progressive_carries": 0.2876, "shots_off_target": 0.7041 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9523, "creative_index": 0.1865, "expectedGoals": 0.1113, "expectedAssists": 0.0319, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2311 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6905689239501953, "model_output": 0.6906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1344 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0927 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.1484, "total": 0.6906, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140191 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.094546 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.084666 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072748 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.049469 } ], "others_margin": -0.194751 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06522272527217865, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130618 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.128596 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.127068 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.090028 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.06715 } ], "others_margin": -0.170178 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06379631161689758, "model_output": 0.0638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.0638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.08651 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.082851 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.082845 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079755 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.0772 } ], "others_margin": -0.231246 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07694859802722931, "model_output": 0.0769, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 0.0769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.215441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.194127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110492 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057835 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.050896 } ], "others_margin": -0.226366 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06828901171684265, "model_output": 0.0683, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": -0.017, "total": 0.0683, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124354 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112906 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105512 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.090924 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.085966 } ], "others_margin": -0.222354 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2742564380168915, "model_output": 0.2743, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0677 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0498, "total": 0.2743, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.233178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.101828 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.028051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026403 } ], "others_margin": -0.167398 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9783408045768738, "model_output": 0.9783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1471 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.1117, "total": 0.9783, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03691 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.021976 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01829 } ], "others_margin": -0.111572 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.808784484863281, "model_output": 6.8088, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 6.8088, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027816 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025773 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020387 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007519 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005219 } ], "others_margin": -0.013192 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.592)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0685, "shots_on_target": 0.2752, "total_shots": 0.9817, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5595, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 0.3241, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0114, "tackles_won": 0.9308, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0959, "fouls_drawn": 0.6476, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1359, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.7065 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16200000, "quality_factor": 0.5921, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0028)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2744, "total_shots": 0.9789, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 0.3241, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1359, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.7065 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0028, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8311, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2744, "total_shots": 0.9809, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 0.3241, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1359, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.7065 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.0222, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "skill_edge": -0.1253, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6109, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.0612 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3241, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9809, "after": 0.7772 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7065, "after": 0.5598 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2744, "after": 0.2174 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1359, "after": 0.1077 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0772, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0683, "after": 0.0541 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.028, "after": 0.0222 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.0222, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "creation_factor": 0.9861 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "creation_factor": 0.9861, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3146, "fifa_rank": 1780.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0564, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "creation_factor": 0.9861, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "scorer_weight": 0.0543, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0425, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6929, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2174, "total_shots": 0.7772, "rating": 6.8088, "minutes": 74.8, "total_pass": 33.4237, "accurate_pass": 29.432, "duels_won": 2.9692, "total_long_balls": 1.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8946, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.802, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.63, "crosses_total": 1.5551, "crosses_accurate": 0.4567, "touches": 45.5106, "possession_lost": 6.8792, "dispossessed": 0.4291, "duels_lost": 2.5768, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3938, "interceptions": 1.0085, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.6125, "clearances": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.6933, "won_contest": 0.385, "challenges_lost": 0.474, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.6458, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 10.4002, "total_progression": 24.4181, "progressive_carries": 0.2886, "shots_off_target": 0.5598, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0564, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 0.9362, "creation_factor": 0.9861, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "assist_rate": 0.0638, "provider_weight": 0.0642, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0837, "creation_factor": 0.9861, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "player_id": 847097, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 182, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0449, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "creation_factor": 1.0525, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "expected_assists": 0.091, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 942, "combined_rank_score": 437.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 676.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0273, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ethan Ampadu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Carrasco", "ranking": 941 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sadio Mané", "ranking": 943 }, { "player_name": "Josh Brillante", "ranking": 944 }, { "player_name": "Yassine Bounou", "ranking": 945 }, { "player_name": "Steffan Pino", "ranking": 946 }, { "player_name": "Mitchell Duke", "ranking": 947 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0076, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.673, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0531, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.1838, "total_shots": 0.7026, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.0428, "accurate_pass": 40.1361, "duels_won": 4.7187, "total_long_balls": 3.8263, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7255, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0621, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7885, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3477, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1785, "touches": 65.2068, "possession_lost": 12.1958, "dispossessed": 0.3291, "duels_lost": 3.2668, "aerial_won": 1.3638, "aerial_lost": 1.0745, "interceptions": 1.825, "tackles_won": 1.018, "tackles": 2.0733, "clearances": 2.2781, "total_contest": 0.2292, "won_contest": 0.1966, "challenges_lost": 0.6638, "fouls": 1.2724, "fouls_drawn": 1.0903, "blocks": 0.492, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0355, "xgot": 0.0985, "ball_carries": 12.983, "total_progression": 26.7771, "progressive_carries": 0.6097, "shots_off_target": 0.5188 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.6039, "creative_index": 0.4311, "expectedGoals": 0.0362, "expectedAssists": 0.0528, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2024 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6729778051376343, "model_output": 0.673, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1179 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0723 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0384 } ], "others": -0.0987, "total": 0.673, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123997 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.080749 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.08066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060028 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.048524 } ], "others_margin": -0.136888 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05991358682513237, "model_output": 0.0599, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 0.0599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.158981 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.157175 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144021 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037747 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036459 } ], "others_margin": -0.183828 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06626129895448685, "model_output": 0.0663, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.0663, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.114686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.087563 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.043927 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.038527 } ], "others_margin": -0.160156 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05305185168981552, "model_output": 0.0531, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0531, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.166962 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.141091 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.134591 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088209 } ], "others_margin": -0.175327 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05999426171183586, "model_output": 0.06, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.06, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.196874 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.160087 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.112924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096666 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.050662 } ], "others_margin": -0.064677 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18382145464420319, "model_output": 0.1838, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.0466, "total": 0.1838, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.223119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.207274 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122949 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11557 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.076508 } ], "others_margin": -0.225595 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7026022672653198, "model_output": 0.7026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1163 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": -0.1323, "total": 0.7026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057335 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045883 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039356 } ], "others_margin": -0.132344 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.027292728424072, "model_output": 7.0273, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1079 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0031, "total": 7.0273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.107852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.067619 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.023057 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01376 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013656 } ], "others_margin": 0.003125 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0668, "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0605, "goal_rate": 0.0605, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.708, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4924, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.3742, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8389, "tackles_won": 1.0257, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0986, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0358, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.5227 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0076, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "shots_on_target": 0.1835, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.3742, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0358, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.5227 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9978, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0257, "after": 1.0207 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "shots_on_target": 0.1835, "total_shots": 0.7062, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.3742, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0358, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.5227 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goals": 0.0542, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "skill_edge": -0.0572, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.7622, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.0484 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.3742, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7062, "after": 0.6385 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5227, "after": 0.4726 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1835, "after": 0.1659 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0992, "after": 0.0897 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0535, "after": 0.0484 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "creation_factor": 1.0525 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "creation_factor": 1.0525, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 942, "fifa_rank": 676.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0449, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "creation_factor": 1.0525, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0449, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "scorer_weight": 0.0486, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0381, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6781, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 7.0273, "minutes": 89.8, "total_pass": 47.4003, "accurate_pass": 40.4411, "duels_won": 4.7546, "total_long_balls": 3.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7386, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9617, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4795, "crosses_total": 0.4925, "crosses_accurate": 0.1799, "touches": 65.7024, "possession_lost": 12.2885, "dispossessed": 0.3316, "duels_lost": 3.2916, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0827, "interceptions": 1.8404, "tackles_won": 1.0207, "tackles": 2.0891, "clearances": 2.2954, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.1981, "challenges_lost": 0.6688, "fouls": 1.2841, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.4957, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0324, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 13.0817, "total_progression": 26.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0449, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "finishing_factor": 1.0589, "creation_factor": 1.0525, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "provider_weight": 0.0634, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0826, "creation_factor": 1.0525, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jayden Bogle": { "player_id": 929132, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.224, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1182, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0952, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "creation_factor": 0.9814, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0731, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2098, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9023, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.2229, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3244, "combined_rank_score": 1184.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1791.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7929, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Pellegrini", "ranking": 3247 }, { "player_name": "Kevin", "ranking": 3248 }, { "player_name": "Dodô", "ranking": 3249 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0039, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 157.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9681, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.1191, "goals": 0.1227, "goal_rate": 0.1227, "shots_on_target": 0.4509, "total_shots": 1.2261, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.5908, "accurate_pass": 16.8558, "duels_won": 3.8943, "total_long_balls": 2.8934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1339, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7887, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0672, "crosses_total": 1.9238, "crosses_accurate": 0.6501, "touches": 39.9085, "possession_lost": 11.2336, "dispossessed": 0.8881, "duels_lost": 4.3435, "aerial_won": 0.8641, "aerial_lost": 0.6415, "interceptions": 0.5151, "tackles_won": 0.9066, "tackles": 1.2253, "clearances": 1.6503, "total_contest": 1.4242, "won_contest": 0.6613, "challenges_lost": 0.9954, "fouls": 1.2071, "fouls_drawn": 1.1436, "blocks": 0.1329, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.1889, "xgot": 0.2121, "ball_carries": 10.0869, "total_progression": 36.1779, "progressive_carries": 0.9412, "shots_off_target": 0.7752 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9111, "creative_index": 0.3943, "expectedGoals": 0.1476, "expectedAssists": 0.0816, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4886 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9681289196014404, "model_output": 0.9681, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1293 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0444 } ], "others": -0.0585, "total": 0.9681, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135217 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.051588 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.049626 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.044562 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.04232 } ], "others_margin": -0.058622 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10001540184020996, "model_output": 0.1, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 0.1, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.115633 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105891 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043478 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.03062 } ], "others_margin": -0.11365 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09806369245052338, "model_output": 0.0981, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0981, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080221 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.074815 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065745 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.056291 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050668 } ], "others_margin": -0.079316 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11911620199680328, "model_output": 0.1191, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.1191, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.217355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104175 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086225 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.018694 } ], "others_margin": 0.044299 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.12266182899475098, "model_output": 0.1227, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 0.1227, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.190113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.142889 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115568 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.065221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064561 } ], "others_margin": 0.063171 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.45089513063430786, "model_output": 0.4509, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0567 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0146, "total": 0.4509, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.150471 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046021 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025121 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023204 } ], "others_margin": 0.0328 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2260791063308716, "model_output": 1.2261, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1542 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0653 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 1.2261, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.154239 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065268 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041037 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.033701 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.028183 } ], "others_margin": -0.009809 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792943954467773, "model_output": 6.7929, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 6.7929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029549 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021204 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010067 } ], "others_margin": -0.007061 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0984, "assist_rate": 0.0984, "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.4527, "total_shots": 1.2309, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9313, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 0.8675, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9101, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2118, "fouls_drawn": 1.1481, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.1896, "xgot": 0.2129, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.7782 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.1221, "shots_on_target": 0.449, "total_shots": 1.2208, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 0.8675, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.1896, "xgot": 0.2129, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.7782 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.873, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1481, "after": 1.1597 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2309, "after": 1.2208 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.1221, "shots_on_target": 0.449, "total_shots": 1.2272, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 0.8675, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.1896, "xgot": 0.2129, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.7782 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.2364, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "skill_edge": 0.0751, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.6976, "defender_skill": 0.5308, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Luke Shaw", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5308 } ], "xg_override": 0.1328 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2272, "after": 1.3626 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8675, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7782, "after": 0.864 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.449, "after": 0.4985 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2129, "after": 0.2364 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1896, "after": 0.2105 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1221, "after": 0.1356 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1196, "after": 0.1328 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.2364, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.224, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "creation_factor": 0.9814 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1328, "after": 0.1258 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.224, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "creation_factor": 0.9814, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3244, "fifa_rank": 1791.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.224, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1182, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "creation_factor": 0.9814, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1182, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "scorer_weight": 0.1277, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.1001, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9719, "expected_assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3626, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 78.57, "total_pass": 22.6789, "accurate_pass": 16.9215, "duels_won": 3.9095, "total_long_balls": 2.9047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1383, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0912, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8191, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1026, "crosses_total": 1.9281, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 40.0641, "possession_lost": 11.2774, "dispossessed": 0.8916, "duels_lost": 4.3604, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.644, "interceptions": 0.5171, "tackles_won": 0.9111, "tackles": 1.2301, "clearances": 1.6567, "total_contest": 1.4298, "won_contest": 0.6639, "challenges_lost": 0.9993, "fouls": 1.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.1597, "blocks": 0.1334, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.2105, "xgot": 0.224, "ball_carries": 10.1262, "total_progression": 36.319, "progressive_carries": 0.9449, "shots_off_target": 0.864, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1182, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0952, "finishing_factor": 1.0153, "creation_factor": 0.9814, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "provider_weight": 0.0981, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.128, "creation_factor": 0.9814, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "player_id": 1118177, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 193, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 39, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 73, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0899, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0454, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.086, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0085, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 47, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3979, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 66, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3240, "combined_rank_score": 1184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 151.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 2217.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9687, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 }, { "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking": 3238 }, { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.645, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.645, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0396, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1621, "tackles": 1.1461, "tackles_won": 0.6607, "clearances": 6.6043, "aerial_won": 3.6586, "total_shots": 0.6919, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.4975, "accurate_pass": 46.6547, "duels_won": 5.7879, "total_long_balls": 5.7772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9156, "total_own_half_passes": 37.6316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4971, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1575, "crosses_total": 0.1257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.7988, "possession_lost": 7.8307, "dispossessed": 0.1257, "duels_lost": 4.2204, "aerial_lost": 3.2687, "total_contest": 0.3771, "won_contest": 0.3771, "ball_recovery": 3.3958, "challenges_lost": 0.2736, "fouls": 0.5524, "fouls_drawn": 0.7695, "blocks": 0.6508, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.174, "assist_rate": 0.174, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.1948, "xgot": 0.0461, "ball_carries": 16.4706, "total_progression": 29.3024, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.174, "shots_off_target": 0.585 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.8673, "aerialWon": 3.8632, "totalClearance_p90": 7.8673, "totalTackle": 0.778, "defensive_actions": 2.5011 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.162066102027893, "model_output": 1.1621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0932 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": 0.0634, "total": 1.1621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.092837 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.041943 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.026244 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.024576 } ], "others_margin": 0.056113 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1460597515106201, "model_output": 1.1461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1395 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1205 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0489 } ], "others": -0.1062, "total": 1.1461, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.095547 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.081952 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041382 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.039277 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.038273 } ], "others_margin": -0.08872 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6606839299201965, "model_output": 0.6607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0868 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0284 } ], "others": -0.097, "total": 0.6607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096753 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.076181 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.057125 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046588 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036749 } ], "others_margin": -0.136961 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.604323387145996, "model_output": 6.6043, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8727 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5767 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3086 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3184 } ], "others": 0.7669, "total": 6.6043, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.226524 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125705 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.065071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057545 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.056092 } ], "others_margin": 0.12343 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.658628225326538, "model_output": 3.6586, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.7667 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2516 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2771 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2877 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2587 } ], "others": 0.4395, "total": 3.6586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.442558 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.110963 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109444 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.102241 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.083763 } ], "others_margin": 0.127986 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.691924512386322, "model_output": 0.6919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0792 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.6919, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.07918 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06001 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.035125 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.031406 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027828 } ], "others_margin": -0.016125 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.968682289123535, "model_output": 6.9687, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0401, "total": 6.9687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044174 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.027804 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.025411 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023572 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022918 } ], "others_margin": 0.040099 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0396, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2081, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6868, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7193, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5743, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.6766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1809, "assist_rate": 0.1809, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1111, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0396, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7107, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1738, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2081, "after": 1.2393 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1111, "after": 0.1264 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1307, "after": 0.1452 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8, "after": 0.7882 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7193, "after": 0.7107 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6868, "after": 0.6794 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1809, "after": 0.1738 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1738, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1738, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0899, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0454, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0949, "after": 0.0899 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0899, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0454, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3240, "fifa_rank": 2217.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0899, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0454, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.086, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0719, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0563, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2393, "tackles": 1.1914, "tackles_won": 0.6794, "clearances": 6.8659, "aerial_won": 3.8035, "total_shots": 0.7346, "rating": 6.9687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.616, "accurate_pass": 48.5022, "duels_won": 6.0171, "total_long_balls": 6.006, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0311, "total_own_half_passes": 39.1218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9028, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5993, "crosses_total": 0.1452, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.5628, "possession_lost": 8.1408, "dispossessed": 0.1307, "duels_lost": 4.3875, "aerial_lost": 3.3981, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 3.5303, "challenges_lost": 0.2844, "fouls": 0.5714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7882, "blocks": 0.6766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0899, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1264, "big_chances_created": 0.2025, "xgot": 0.0454, "ball_carries": 17.1228, "total_progression": 30.4628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1809, "shots_off_target": 0.6082, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.086, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0085, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0085, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0139, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nico Elvedi": { "player_id": 282229, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 188, "market_value": 11000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1082, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 59, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.052, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.5672, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1584, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 132.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7852, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.569, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.569, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0044, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 57.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.04, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9976, "tackles": 1.1633, "tackles_won": 0.7248, "clearances": 5.0011, "aerial_won": 1.7405, "total_shots": 0.4904, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.3478, "accurate_pass": 38.8603, "duels_won": 2.1587, "total_long_balls": 2.4864, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6927, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1677, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.4367, "possession_lost": 5.3264, "dispossessed": 0.2267, "duels_lost": 3.2303, "aerial_lost": 1.8449, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5745, "challenges_lost": 0.6522, "fouls": 0.5065, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.1144, "shots_on_target": 0.2667, "big_chances_created": 0.3854, "xgot": 0.1469, "ball_carries": 19.2447, "total_progression": 87.8192, "progressive_carries": 1.3337, "key_pass": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2237 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.9489, "aerialWon": 1.3904, "totalClearance_p90": 4.2429, "totalTackle": 0.6052, "defensive_actions": 1.6396 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9975757002830505, "model_output": 0.9976, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0132, "total": 0.9976, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127457 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.031949 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.029456 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025097 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.020935 } ], "others_margin": 0.013268 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1633142232894897, "model_output": 1.1633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1705 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.127 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0845 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0605 } ], "others": -0.1408, "total": 1.1633, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125552 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.114356 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.094593 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.063903 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.045385 } ], "others_margin": -0.114234 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7248192429542542, "model_output": 0.7248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1028 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0851 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": -0.0563, "total": 0.7248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123979 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.11239 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.103641 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.039547 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.036862 } ], "others_margin": -0.074836 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.001059532165527, "model_output": 5.0011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4629 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3733 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1996 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1402 } ], "others": 0.2759, "total": 5.0011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126489 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.097024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083388 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0419 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.029242 } ], "others_margin": 0.056734 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.7405179738998413, "model_output": 1.7405, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1645 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1201 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1025 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 1.7405, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112805 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.081072 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072665 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06614 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060868 } ], "others_margin": 0.002643 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4904055595397949, "model_output": 0.4904, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 0.4904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058441 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012277 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.01125 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009631 } ], "others_margin": -0.02254 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785209655761719, "model_output": 6.7852, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 6.7852, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011963 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010791 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007976 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.007193 } ], "others_margin": -0.000488 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.002, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.728, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4926, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5087, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9229, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2679, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4862, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9907, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0429 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.728, "after": 0.7185 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.002, "after": 1.0104 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5087, "after": 0.5021 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4926, "after": 0.4862 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1584, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0223, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0104, "tackles": 1.1684, "tackles_won": 0.7185, "clearances": 5.0231, "aerial_won": 1.7482, "total_shots": 0.4891, "rating": 6.7852, "minutes": 89.16, "total_pass": 43.5385, "accurate_pass": 39.0313, "duels_won": 2.1682, "total_long_balls": 2.4973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7206, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8101, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4491, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2212, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6674, "possession_lost": 5.3498, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2445, "aerial_lost": 1.853, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.5021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0429, "blocks": 0.9229, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "shots_on_target": 0.2644, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 19.3294, "total_progression": 88.2056, "progressive_carries": 1.3396, "key_pass": 0.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.2247, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1082, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1082, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0916, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.1195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "James Justin": { "player_id": 827681, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 183, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1815, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0634, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1898, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0595, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3031, "combined_rank_score": 1003.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1778.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8328, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Justin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dong-geon No", "ranking": 3026 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Pastene", "ranking": 3027 }, { "player_name": "Dumitru Celeadnic", "ranking": 3028 }, { "player_name": "Leo Kapilevich", "ranking": 3029 }, { "player_name": "Jens Petter Hauge", "ranking": 3030 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jens Hofer", "ranking": 3032 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Zaragoza", "ranking": 3033 }, { "player_name": "Wout Weghorst", "ranking": 3034 }, { "player_name": "Jake Azzopardi", "ranking": 3035 }, { "player_name": "Ki Hyun Lee", "ranking": 3036 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1855, "tackles": 2.3498, "tackles_won": 1.4306, "clearances": 3.5159, "aerial_won": 1.5734, "total_shots": 0.9992, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.4523, "accurate_pass": 23.5982, "duels_won": 5.7669, "total_long_balls": 3.9493, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3041, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5764, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3725, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2257, "crosses_total": 1.6944, "crosses_accurate": 0.2897, "touches": 52.2455, "possession_lost": 12.2105, "dispossessed": 0.2998, "duels_lost": 3.2901, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.0798, "ball_recovery": 2.8258, "challenges_lost": 0.924, "fouls": 0.7896, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4572, "goals": 0.2185, "goal_rate": 0.2185, "assists": 0.1167, "assist_rate": 0.1167, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "shots_on_target": 0.4125, "big_chances_created": 0.2388, "xgot": 0.191, "ball_carries": 9.0532, "total_progression": 34.7668, "progressive_carries": 0.8337, "key_pass": 0.6228, "shots_off_target": 0.5867 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.587, "aerialWon": 1.6966, "totalClearance_p90": 3.8883, "totalTackle": 2.7485, "defensive_actions": 4.1068 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1854662895202637, "model_output": 1.1855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1113 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0894 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0654, "total": 1.1855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121551 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.087967 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024741 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014669 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.014246 } ], "others_margin": 0.056768 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.3497893810272217, "model_output": 2.3498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2015 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1703 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1214 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1248 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.1143 } ], "others": 0.226, "total": 2.3498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135231 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.101574 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.066556 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.064136 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055315 } ], "others_margin": 0.101127 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.4306362867355347, "model_output": 1.4306, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1271 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0967 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0527 } ], "others": 0.1406, "total": 1.4306, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13869 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.09398 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.080384 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.057485 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.041683 } ], "others_margin": 0.103526 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.5158557891845703, "model_output": 3.5159, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1969 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1073 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0719 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0616 } ], "others": -0.0714, "total": 3.5159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122804 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.052052 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029545 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.019899 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.017033 } ], "others_margin": -0.020148 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5734256505966187, "model_output": 1.5734, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1768 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0809 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0523 } ], "others": -0.2388, "total": 1.5734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.154014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104402 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046411 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.033149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029271 } ], "others_margin": -0.141305 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9991577863693237, "model_output": 0.9992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3954 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0274 } ], "others": 0.041, "total": 0.9992, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.395415 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063504 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.036311 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.033664 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027402 } ], "others_margin": 0.040984 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832835674285889, "model_output": 6.8328, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 6.8328, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039512 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036107 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.009022 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.00793 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007847 } ], "others_margin": -0.002687 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1895, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4355, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0026, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.7002, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.7923, "fouls_drawn": 1.4191, "blocks": 0.4588, "goals": 0.2192, "goal_rate": 0.2192, "assists": 0.1171, "assist_rate": 0.1171, "expected_goals": 0.0825, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1916, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 0.997, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goals": 0.2168, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.0825, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1916, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.977, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4355, "after": 1.4464 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0026, "after": 0.997 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goals": 0.2168, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.0825, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1916, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goals": 0.2168, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.0825, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1916, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0825, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1916, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1815, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1815, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3031, "fifa_rank": 1778.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1815, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "scorer_weight": 0.0978, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0766, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1872, "tackles": 2.3578, "tackles_won": 1.4464, "clearances": 3.5278, "aerial_won": 1.5788, "total_shots": 1.0034, "rating": 6.8328, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 31.5592, "accurate_pass": 23.6784, "duels_won": 5.7865, "total_long_balls": 3.9627, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3085, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2605, "crosses_total": 1.6977, "crosses_accurate": 0.2907, "touches": 52.4231, "possession_lost": 12.252, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 3.3013, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "total_contest": 0.2498, "won_contest": 0.0801, "ball_recovery": 2.8354, "challenges_lost": 0.9271, "fouls": 0.789, "fouls_drawn": 1.4143, "blocks": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.2168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.1815, "ball_carries": 9.084, "total_progression": 34.885, "progressive_carries": 0.8365, "key_pass": 0.6249, "shots_off_target": 0.5887, "opponent_faced": "Amad Diallo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0634, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "provider_weight": 0.0819, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.1068, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 52, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1101 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9933 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1378 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.3189 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1874 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3277 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6451 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025094, "match_date": "2025-08-31", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.0718 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025083, "match_date": "2025-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0815 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025050, "match_date": "2025-08-16", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.7363 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1256, "combined_rank_score": 548.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 212.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.175, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 885.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9981, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Trafford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Caroca", "ranking": 1251 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Hernández", "ranking": 1252 }, { "player_name": "Israel Poblete", "ranking": 1253 }, { "player_name": "Julian Chabot", "ranking": 1254 }, { "player_name": "Filip Kurto", "ranking": 1255 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ju-sung Kim", "ranking": 1257 }, { "player_name": "Saidafzalkhon Akhrorov", "ranking": 1258 }, { "player_name": "Dostonbek Tursunov", "ranking": 1259 }, { "player_name": "Sylvanus Nimely", "ranking": 1260 }, { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 10, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0265, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 10 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0514, "goals_prevented": -0.0946, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6405, "accurate_pass": 24.6732, "total_long_balls": 20.5273, "accurate_long_balls": 6.9547, "touches": 50.7317, "clearances": 1.255, "ball_recovery": 11.1752, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.6329, "aerial_won": 0.3816, "sweeper_actions": 2.2436, "sweeper_accurate": 2.166, "saves_inside_box": 2.3182, "possession_lost": 14.3408, "duels_won": 0.5941, "duels_lost": 0.2696, "total_contest": 0.0599, "won_contest": 0.0599, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0509, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6127, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0262 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-23", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.9546, "save_contribution": 4.2859, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9263, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 19.0262, "passValueNormalized": 0.0658, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.6127 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0513525009155273, "model_output": 3.0514, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0122, "total": 3.0514, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.007909 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.007492 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007277 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.006271 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.003888 } ], "others_margin": 0.003985 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.09455232322216034, "model_output": -0.0946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": -0.0946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.017808 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.016823 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016449 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014843 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014576 } ], "others_margin": -0.049273 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.998114585876465, "model_output": 6.9981, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": 0.017, "total": 6.9981, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.046164 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.020609 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.008894 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007004 } ], "others_margin": 0.016909 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0265, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1322, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0522, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0265, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0289)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0289, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3467 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.8, "after": 14.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.13, "after": 3.55 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.08, "after": 1.22 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1256, "fifa_rank": 885.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1284, "goals_prevented": -0.0971, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6645, "accurate_pass": 25.327, "total_long_balls": 21.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 7.139, "touches": 52.0761, "clearances": 1.2883, "ball_recovery": 11.4713, "high_claims": 1.0889, "punches": 0.6497, "aerial_won": 0.3917, "sweeper_actions": 2.3031, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2234, "saves_inside_box": 2.3796, "possession_lost": 14.7208, "duels_won": 0.6098, "duels_lost": 0.2767, "total_contest": 0.0615, "won_contest": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5304, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3467, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Anton Stach": { "player_id": 889861, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 192, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1295, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1037, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.9018, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.089, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.08, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4275, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3241, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2818, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "expected_assists": 0.1101, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 837, "combined_rank_score": 400.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 693.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9225, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anton Stach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Khozhimat Erkinov", "ranking": 832 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Sabino", "ranking": 833 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Asencio", "ranking": 834 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Dackers", "ranking": 835 }, { "player_name": "Choi Kang-Min", "ranking": 836 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lautaro Pastrán", "ranking": 838 }, { "player_name": "Marcelo Morales", "ranking": 839 }, { "player_name": "Alesson", "ranking": 840 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Jesus", "ranking": 841 }, { "player_name": "Pedro", "ranking": 842 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0082, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3353, "expected_assists": 0.109, "assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "expected_goals": 0.1522, "goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "shots_on_target": 0.4411, "total_shots": 1.4432, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.3921, "accurate_pass": 21.6693, "duels_won": 6.8517, "total_long_balls": 2.1792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3934, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3211, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3481, "crosses_total": 6.6883, "crosses_accurate": 1.2067, "touches": 52.376, "possession_lost": 16.9265, "dispossessed": 0.7432, "duels_lost": 5.3199, "aerial_won": 2.3715, "aerial_lost": 1.1861, "interceptions": 1.2682, "tackles_won": 1.5277, "tackles": 2.6393, "clearances": 1.8783, "total_contest": 1.0745, "won_contest": 0.4568, "challenges_lost": 0.9983, "fouls": 1.9027, "fouls_drawn": 1.389, "blocks": 0.4605, "big_chances_created": 0.1115, "big_chances_missed": 0.2432, "xgot": 0.0658, "ball_carries": 9.2374, "total_progression": 22.4163, "progressive_carries": 0.5263, "shots_off_target": 1.0021 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.6335, "creative_index": 0.6963, "expectedGoals": 0.1434, "expectedAssists": 0.0932, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3233 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3352807760238647, "model_output": 1.3353, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1226 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1264 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0948 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0549 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 1.3353, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128618 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.117304 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.079729 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054871 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.041163 } ], "others_margin": -0.019354 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10902831703424454, "model_output": 0.109, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 0.109, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.125601 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.116298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.094514 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.064581 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.052308 } ], "others_margin": 0.020746 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09442446380853653, "model_output": 0.0944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.0944, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.098931 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.074498 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054215 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.052863 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.048494 } ], "others_margin": -0.144157 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.15222519636154175, "model_output": 0.1522, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 0.1522, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.26852 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.132917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.122712 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067267 } ], "others_margin": 0.03652 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15835271775722504, "model_output": 0.1584, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 0.1584, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.28862 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16452 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.129678 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101332 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088589 } ], "others_margin": 0.145813 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4411303699016571, "model_output": 0.4411, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.4411, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.165918 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.155305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153472 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12303 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.072817 } ], "others_margin": -0.056659 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4432028532028198, "model_output": 1.4432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3166 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0797 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0445 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 1.4432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.316555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134246 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.079698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048711 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.044467 } ], "others_margin": -0.016611 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.922457218170166, "model_output": 6.9225, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0147, "total": 6.9225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.083312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.021342 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018716 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017871 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01329 } ], "others_margin": 0.014623 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1535, "goals": 0.1597, "goal_rate": 0.1597, "shots_on_target": 0.4447, "total_shots": 1.4551, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7431, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 2.3909, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2786, "tackles_won": 1.5402, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.9183, "fouls_drawn": 1.4004, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2452, "xgot": 0.0663, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.0103 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.1535, "goals": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1632, "shots_on_target": 0.4451, "total_shots": 1.4604, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 2.3909, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2452, "xgot": 0.0663, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.0103 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9703, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 6.7431, "after": 6.7121 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2786, "after": 1.2963 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4004, "after": 1.4168 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.9183, "after": 1.908 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5402, "after": 1.534 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4551, "after": 1.4604 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.1535, "goals": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1632, "shots_on_target": 0.4451, "total_shots": 1.4604, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 2.3909, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2452, "xgot": 0.0663, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.0103 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.1464, "goals": 0.1557, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "skill_edge": -0.0634, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.7484, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.1464 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.3909, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4604, "after": 1.3929 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0103, "after": 0.9636 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4451, "after": 0.4245 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2452, "after": 0.2339 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1632, "after": 0.1557 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1535, "after": 0.1464 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1464, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.9018 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1464, "after": 0.1387 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.9018, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 837, "fifa_rank": 693.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1295, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.9018, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "scorer_weight": 0.1453, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.1138, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3462, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goal_rate": 0.1557, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "total_shots": 1.3929, "rating": 6.9225, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 29.6331, "accurate_pass": 21.847, "duels_won": 6.9079, "total_long_balls": 2.1971, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4048, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4576, "crosses_total": 6.7121, "crosses_accurate": 1.2166, "touches": 52.8055, "possession_lost": 17.0653, "dispossessed": 0.7493, "duels_lost": 5.3635, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.1958, "interceptions": 1.2963, "tackles_won": 1.534, "tackles": 2.6609, "clearances": 1.8937, "total_contest": 1.0833, "won_contest": 0.4605, "challenges_lost": 1.0065, "fouls": 1.908, "fouls_drawn": 1.4168, "blocks": 0.4643, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "big_chances_missed": 0.2339, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 9.3131, "total_progression": 22.6001, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 0.9636, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1295, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1037, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.9018, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1037, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "provider_weight": 0.0987, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.1288, "creation_factor": 0.9018, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Noah Okafor": { "player_id": 865523, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8605, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0713, "expected_assists": 0.0767, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3281, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.193, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.36, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2522, "combined_rank_score": 912.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 403.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7701, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Moritz Nicolas", "ranking": 2517 }, { "player_name": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "ranking": 2518 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 }, { "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking": 2524 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0095, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 93.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.94, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1528, "goals": 0.1773, "goal_rate": 0.1773, "shots_on_target": 0.5631, "total_shots": 1.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0648, "key_pass": 0.7798, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.0707, "accurate_pass": 12.7181, "duels_won": 4.0783, "total_long_balls": 1.4136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9831, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7893, "crosses_total": 1.8867, "crosses_accurate": 0.3438, "touches": 31.8886, "possession_lost": 11.3571, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 5.7981, "aerial_lost": 1.1237, "total_contest": 4.5235, "won_contest": 1.7887, "ball_recovery": 2.344, "challenges_lost": 0.5483, "fouls": 0.5303, "fouls_drawn": 0.747, "assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0491, "interceptions": 0.2141, "tackles_won": 0.8152, "tackles": 0.9446, "clearances": 0.5754, "blocks": 0.0417, "big_chances_created": 0.1138, "big_chances_missed": 0.1249, "xgot": 0.2309, "offsides": 0.1531, "ball_carries": 12.4775, "total_progression": 70.1516, "progressive_carries": 3.3502, "shots_off_target": 0.8207 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9108, "expectedGoals": 0.1158, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.5047, "accuratePass": 10.8605, "totalShots": 1.2359 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.15277737379074097, "model_output": 0.1528, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0655 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 0.1528, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.286406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198793 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.065688 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.060581 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040171 } ], "others_margin": -0.178028 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1772683709859848, "model_output": 0.1773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.037, "total": 0.1773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.284729 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184749 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.077477 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.062636 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.032596 } ], "others_margin": -0.189844 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.56313556432724, "model_output": 0.5631, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2036 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0305 } ], "others": -0.1155, "total": 0.5631, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.321086 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.054273 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.051949 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.046494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043896 } ], "others_margin": -0.186706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3838257789611816, "model_output": 1.3838, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4558 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1592 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0578 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0388 } ], "others": -0.1241, "total": 1.3838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.455848 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.159192 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.065897 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.057827 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.038849 } ], "others_margin": -0.124098 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06475886702537537, "model_output": 0.0648, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.0648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.194531 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.102742 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.07434 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.07243 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032778 } ], "others_margin": -0.11423 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7798331379890442, "model_output": 0.7798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2005 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0497, "total": 0.7798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.260691 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063544 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.049214 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.031831 } ], "others_margin": 0.065815 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.770095348358154, "model_output": 6.7701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 6.7701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056393 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01369 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012333 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011176 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.010972 } ], "others_margin": -0.029796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1542, "goals": 0.179, "goal_rate": 0.179, "shots_on_target": 0.5685, "total_shots": 1.397, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9046, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5353, "fouls_drawn": 0.7541, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "interceptions": 0.2161, "tackles_won": 0.8229, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.1546, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8285 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0056)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1542, "goals": 0.178, "goal_rate": 0.178, "shots_on_target": 0.5653, "total_shots": 1.3978, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8285 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0056, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7951, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9046, "after": 1.9161 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8229, "after": 0.8316 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1542, "goals": 0.178, "goal_rate": 0.178, "shots_on_target": 0.5653, "total_shots": 1.3978, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8285 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1782, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2334, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "skill_edge": 0.0169, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.752, "defender_skill": 0.7144, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5395 } ], "xg_override": 0.1544 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2334, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8605 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1544, "after": 0.1463 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8605, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2522, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8605, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "scorer_weight": 0.1633, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.128, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.3996, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.7872, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 71.56, "total_pass": 16.2234, "accurate_pass": 12.8389, "duels_won": 4.117, "total_long_balls": 1.427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9924, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8728, "crosses_total": 1.9161, "crosses_accurate": 0.3471, "touches": 32.1915, "possession_lost": 11.465, "dispossessed": 0.8742, "duels_lost": 5.8532, "aerial_lost": 1.1344, "total_contest": 4.5665, "won_contest": 1.8057, "ball_recovery": 2.3663, "challenges_lost": 0.5535, "fouls": 0.5367, "fouls_drawn": 0.7543, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles_won": 0.8316, "tackles": 0.9536, "clearances": 0.5809, "blocks": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0.1537, "ball_carries": 12.596, "total_progression": 70.818, "progressive_carries": 3.382, "shots_off_target": 0.8296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8605, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.063, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "provider_weight": 0.056, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0731, "creation_factor": 0.8605, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "player_id": 372344, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4896, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0285, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.523, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9885, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5559, "expected_assists": 0.0606, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9231, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1268, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.482, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 10, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8165, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4544, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2067, "combined_rank_score": 786.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 717.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6857, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 855.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8641, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Antonio Sabando Sanhueza", "ranking": 2062 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kyu-Min", "ranking": 2063 }, { "player_name": "Salem Al Dawsari", "ranking": 2064 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Williams", "ranking": 2065 }, { "player_name": "Youssef En-Nesyri", "ranking": 2066 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3452, "goals": 0.3866, "goal_rate": 0.3866, "shots_on_target": 0.9056, "total_shots": 2.0958, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 15.9066, "accurate_pass": 8.1555, "duels_won": 5.9907, "total_long_balls": 0.2995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2077, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8287, "crosses_total": 0.2444, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.1572, "possession_lost": 11.875, "dispossessed": 0.4221, "duels_lost": 7.8377, "aerial_lost": 4.7187, "total_contest": 1.3589, "won_contest": 0.5122, "ball_recovery": 2.2201, "challenges_lost": 0.1722, "fouls": 1.7617, "fouls_drawn": 1.0568, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.1073, "tackles_won": 0.016, "tackles": 0.0246, "clearances": 1.7958, "blocks": 0.1509, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7611, "xgot": 0.5269, "offsides": 0.6915, "ball_carries": 6.7839, "total_progression": 2.3642, "progressive_carries": 0.5158, "shots_off_target": 1.1902 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 12.0099, "expectedGoals": 0.4943, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.7971, "accuratePass": 8.1123, "totalShots": 1.7926 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.34515395760536194, "model_output": 0.3452, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 0.3452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.257489 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14138 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.067459 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.0347 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032856 } ], "others_margin": 0.024268 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.38662633299827576, "model_output": 0.3866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0357, "total": 0.3866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.23377 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.18002 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.110498 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.075665 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.05467 } ], "others_margin": 0.09721 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9055652022361755, "model_output": 0.9056, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1714 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0541 } ], "others": 0.075, "total": 0.9056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276789 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.076255 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.073173 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.071894 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.063054 } ], "others_margin": 0.086296 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.09578537940979, "model_output": 2.0958, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.537 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0578 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0569 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 2.0958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.536994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.119815 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.057783 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.057683 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.056887 } ], "others_margin": 0.008349 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.028811844065785408, "model_output": 0.0288, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202962 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.148484 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.145334 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.138545 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.106056 } ], "others_margin": -0.466001 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5396624207496643, "model_output": 0.5397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1578 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0541 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0336 } ], "others": -0.1209, "total": 0.5397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.210565 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.06256 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050349 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.049679 } ], "others_margin": -0.202021 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8640522956848145, "model_output": 6.8641, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 6.8641, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04928 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036822 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027012 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.022959 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018352 } ], "others_margin": -0.020672 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3473, "goals": 0.389, "goal_rate": 0.389, "shots_on_target": 0.9112, "total_shots": 2.1088, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7726, "fouls_drawn": 1.0634, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.108, "tackles_won": 0.0161, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7658, "xgot": 0.5302, "offsides": 0.6958, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1976 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3473, "goals": 0.3898, "goal_rate": 0.3898, "shots_on_target": 0.9071, "total_shots": 2.1068, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7658, "xgot": 0.5302, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1976 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9494, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.6958, "after": 0.7027 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0634, "after": 1.0579 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3473, "goals": 0.3898, "goal_rate": 0.3898, "shots_on_target": 0.9071, "total_shots": 2.1068, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7658, "xgot": 0.5302, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1976 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3385, "goals": 0.38, "goal_rate": 0.38, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.5168, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "skill_edge": -0.0091, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.7144, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5395 } ], "xg_override": 0.3385 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1068, "after": 2.0537 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1976, "after": 1.1674 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9071, "after": 0.8842 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.7658, "after": 0.7465 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.5302, "after": 0.5168 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3898, "after": 0.38 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3473, "after": 0.3385 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3385, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.5168, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.4896, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3385, "after": 0.3205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.4896, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2067, "fifa_rank": 855.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.4896, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "goal_rate": 0.38, "scorer_weight": 0.3547, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.2779, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.38, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8842, "total_shots": 2.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.543, "rating": 6.8641, "minutes": 85.45, "total_pass": 16.0052, "accurate_pass": 8.2061, "duels_won": 6.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.3014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.209, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8648, "crosses_total": 0.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 28.3318, "possession_lost": 11.9486, "dispossessed": 0.4247, "duels_lost": 7.8863, "aerial_lost": 4.748, "total_contest": 1.3673, "won_contest": 0.5154, "ball_recovery": 2.2339, "challenges_lost": 0.1733, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 0.0159, "tackles": 0.0248, "clearances": 1.8069, "blocks": 0.1518, "big_chances_created": 0.0045, "big_chances_missed": 0.7465, "xgot": 0.4896, "offsides": 0.7027, "ball_carries": 6.826, "total_progression": 2.3789, "progressive_carries": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 1.1674, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0285, "finishing_factor": 1.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "provider_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0302, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Lucas Perri": { "player_id": 871290, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 196, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.014, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025052, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1289 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025284, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6086 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025264, "match_date": "2026-01-01", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.7617 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025250, "match_date": "2025-12-28", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.49 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025224, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 37, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1024 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025186, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1599 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025168, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6922 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025138, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2277 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025108, "match_date": "2025-11-29", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.6775 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025078, "match_date": "2025-11-23", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.5362 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3357, "combined_rank_score": 1306.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 835.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5875, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.989, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking": 3352 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 16, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 16, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.691536137511768, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.12234255170508039, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (16 historical appearances) to 4.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.12); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.6769, "goals_prevented": 0.085, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2416, "accurate_pass": 18.3531, "total_long_balls": 21.6926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8312, "touches": 43.6944, "clearances": 1.1387, "ball_recovery": 6.2017, "high_claims": 1.1859, "punches": 1.1134, "aerial_won": 0.3126, "sweeper_actions": 0.4271, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4271, "saves_inside_box": 1.8263, "possession_lost": 17.0485, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.1807, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0846, "fouls_drawn": 0.4168, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5521 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-01", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-28", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0519, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0442, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0375, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 16.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.8312, "save_contribution": 2.2494, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7975, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.5522, "passValueNormalized": 0.0848, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.5814 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.676867723464966, "model_output": 2.6769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2255 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 2.6769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079774 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.006555 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.006041 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.00532 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005044 } ], "others_margin": -0.016574 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0850365087389946, "model_output": 0.085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0624, "total": 0.085, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025028 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.019044 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.015911 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014405 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.014387 } ], "others_margin": 0.062463 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.988968849182129, "model_output": 6.989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 6.989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027532 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.019258 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.018558 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017186 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016102 } ], "others_margin": -0.034181 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6785, "goals_prevented": 0.0851, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2621, "accurate_pass": 18.3641, "total_long_balls": 21.7056, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8347, "touches": 43.7206, "clearances": 1.1394, "ball_recovery": 6.2054, "high_claims": 1.1866, "punches": 1.1141, "aerial_won": 0.3128, "sweeper_actions": 0.4274, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4274, "saves_inside_box": 1.8274, "possession_lost": 17.0587, "duels_won": 0.5677, "duels_lost": 0.1808, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0847, "fouls_drawn": 0.4171, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5602 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.12)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4409, "goals_prevented": 0.014, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.69, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1646, "appearance_probability": 0.122 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4409, "goals_prevented": 0.014, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4409, "goals_prevented": 0.014, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.122, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4409, "goals_prevented": 0.014, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3357, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Joe Rodon": { "player_id": 828640, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 193, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.062, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1207, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1976, "combined_rank_score": 764.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 115.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.425, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1413.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7042, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joe Rodon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nodir Soyibov", "ranking": 1971 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Zalewski", "ranking": 1972 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beraldo", "ranking": 1973 }, { "player_name": "Geon-heui Pyo", "ranking": 1974 }, { "player_name": "Damien Da Silva", "ranking": 1975 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Senny Mayulu", "ranking": 1977 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Gumbau", "ranking": 1978 }, { "player_name": "Malik Tillman", "ranking": 1979 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Vargas", "ranking": 1980 }, { "player_name": "Norman Rodríguez", "ranking": 1981 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29163464336888, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (37 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2986, "tackles": 0.5279, "tackles_won": 0.2902, "clearances": 1.5661, "aerial_won": 0.8384, "total_shots": 0.2068, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.7732, "accurate_pass": 21.7451, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 2.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6325, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1964, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5487, "crosses_total": 0.337, "crosses_accurate": 0.2821, "touches": 40.6396, "possession_lost": 7.612, "dispossessed": 0.2339, "duels_lost": 3.2168, "aerial_lost": 1.5755, "total_contest": 0.2207, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 1.9925, "challenges_lost": 0.4012, "fouls": 0.8669, "fouls_drawn": 0.5881, "blocks": 0.6132, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.2068, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.087, "ball_carries": 6.0429, "total_progression": 18.5367, "progressive_carries": 0.3871, "key_pass": 0.5169, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.3707, "aerialWon": 1.7642, "totalClearance_p90": 5.4, "totalTackle": 0.8589, "defensive_actions": 1.3931 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2985706031322479, "model_output": 0.2986, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4764 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0347, "total": 0.2986, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.806003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.125607 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038888 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.030917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.025136 } ], "others_margin": -0.110167 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5278761982917786, "model_output": 0.5279, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7363 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0452, "total": 0.5279, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.75319 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.039677 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.035995 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.034735 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.023537 } ], "others_margin": -0.082147 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.29017266631126404, "model_output": 0.2902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4539 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0394, "total": 0.2902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.75799 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.056219 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.048602 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.045762 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.043596 } ], "others_margin": -0.12748 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.566077470779419, "model_output": 1.5661, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1372 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2268 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1305 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0458 } ], "others": 0.0792, "total": 1.5661, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.974454 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.161308 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.089606 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.034808 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.031314 } ], "others_margin": 0.051847 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8384075164794922, "model_output": 0.8384, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8072 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1527 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 0.8384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.882049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.237313 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059033 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034322 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.031907 } ], "others_margin": 0.023089 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2068, "model_output": 0.194, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0236, "total": 0.194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.235697 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010885 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009601 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008461 } ], "others_margin": -0.023617 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.704205513000488, "model_output": 6.7042, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 6.7042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024126 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016928 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.015773 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012105 } ], "others_margin": -0.033519 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2998, "tackles": 0.53, "tackles_won": 0.2914, "clearances": 1.5725, "aerial_won": 0.8418, "total_shots": 0.2076, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3384, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8705, "fouls_drawn": 0.5905, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2076, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18800000, "quality_factor": 0.6191, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.53, "tackles_won": 0.2893, "clearances": 1.5725, "aerial_won": 0.8418, "total_shots": 0.2074, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8679, "fouls_drawn": 0.5887, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2061, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2377, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.3541, "tackles_won": 0.1933, "clearances": 1.0507, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.29, "projection_minutes": 21.39, "minutes_scale": 0.6681, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.3541, "tackles_won": 0.1933, "clearances": 1.0507, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.3541, "tackles_won": 0.1933, "clearances": 1.0507, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.3541, "tackles_won": 0.1933, "clearances": 1.0507, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7042, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1976, "fifa_rank": 1413.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Jaka Bijol": { "player_id": 886930, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 192, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1059, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 14, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2459, "combined_rank_score": 887.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 352.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1423.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaka Bijol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking": 2458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Ramos", "ranking": 2460 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Moya", "ranking": 2461 }, { "player_name": "Ji Dong-Won", "ranking": 2462 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Savarino", "ranking": 2463 }, { "player_name": "Mukhriddin Zoirov", "ranking": 2464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.765, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.279596783510211, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.231, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0049, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (29 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4104, "tackles": 0.4427, "tackles_won": 0.2778, "clearances": 2.3324, "aerial_won": 1.242, "total_shots": 0.348, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 22.2, "total_pass": 10.0394, "accurate_pass": 8.6192, "duels_won": 2.0261, "total_long_balls": 1.3345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3877, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.888, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7312, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2867, "possession_lost": 1.527, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.35, "aerial_lost": 0.9917, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8836, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3583, "fouls_drawn": 0.1257, "blocks": 0.2408, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.348, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0544, "ball_carries": 3.141, "total_progression": 3.8958, "progressive_carries": 0.1948, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.8515, "aerialWon": 2.4445, "totalClearance_p90": 8.4907, "totalTackle": 0.7665, "defensive_actions": 1.4899 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.41037145256996155, "model_output": 0.4104, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4685 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0153, "total": 0.4104, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.785629 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.031597 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.03122 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030083 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.023123 } ], "others_margin": 0.038161 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.44266965985298157, "model_output": 0.4427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7697 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0944, "total": 0.4427, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.805586 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051807 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.03685 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029581 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028116 } ], "others_margin": -0.193378 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.27782320976257324, "model_output": 0.2778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4595 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 0.2778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.772136 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.070545 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.050656 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.04517 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.038173 } ], "others_margin": -0.146461 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.3324358463287354, "model_output": 2.3324, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1127 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3289 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0902 } ], "others": 0.4099, "total": 2.3324, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.955715 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.222455 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.055958 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049529 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04806 } ], "others_margin": 0.19327 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.242016077041626, "model_output": 1.242, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7791 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1686 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0701 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.057 } ], "others": 0.2741, "total": 1.242, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.833945 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.248268 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.087494 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.084774 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.060729 } ], "others_margin": 0.249283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.348, "model_output": 0.2356, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2392 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0485, "total": 0.2356, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014555 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011599 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0106 } ], "others_margin": 0.048333 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77237606048584, "model_output": 6.7724, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 6.7724, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018894 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01594 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012277 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.00925 } ], "others_margin": 0.010652 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4124, "tackles": 0.4448, "tackles_won": 0.2792, "clearances": 2.3439, "aerial_won": 1.2481, "total_shots": 0.3497, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 22.2, "total_pass": 10.0886, "accurate_pass": 8.6614, "duels_won": 2.036, "total_long_balls": 1.341, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9169, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.71, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3567, "possession_lost": 1.5345, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3566, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8879, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3601, "fouls_drawn": 0.1263, "blocks": 0.242, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "shots_on_target": 0.3497, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0547, "ball_carries": 3.1564, "total_progression": 3.9149, "progressive_carries": 0.1958, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4132, "tackles": 0.4448, "tackles_won": 0.2781, "clearances": 2.3439, "aerial_won": 1.2481, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 22.2, "total_pass": 10.0886, "accurate_pass": 8.6614, "duels_won": 2.036, "total_long_balls": 1.341, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9169, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.71, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7446, "crosses_total": 0.0016, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3567, "possession_lost": 1.5345, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3566, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8879, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3582, "fouls_drawn": 0.1267, "blocks": 0.242, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0547, "ball_carries": 3.1564, "total_progression": 3.9149, "progressive_carries": 0.1958, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2467, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.2 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2658, "tackles": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "clearances": 1.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8028, "total_shots": 0.2248, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 6.4892, "accurate_pass": 5.5712, "duels_won": 1.3096, "total_long_balls": 0.8626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2506, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8059, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7654, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2346, "possession_lost": 0.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8726, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5711, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2304, "fouls_drawn": 0.0815, "blocks": 0.1557, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 2.0303, "total_progression": 2.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.1259, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 22.2, "minutes_scale": 0.6432, "appearance_probability": 0.231 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2658, "tackles": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "clearances": 1.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8028, "total_shots": 0.2248, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 6.4892, "accurate_pass": 5.5712, "duels_won": 1.3096, "total_long_balls": 0.8626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2506, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8059, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7654, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2346, "possession_lost": 0.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8726, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5711, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2304, "fouls_drawn": 0.0815, "blocks": 0.1557, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 2.0303, "total_progression": 2.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.1259, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2658, "tackles": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "clearances": 1.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8028, "total_shots": 0.2248, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 6.4892, "accurate_pass": 5.5712, "duels_won": 1.3096, "total_long_balls": 0.8626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2506, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8059, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7654, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2346, "possession_lost": 0.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8726, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5711, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2304, "fouls_drawn": 0.0815, "blocks": 0.1557, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 2.0303, "total_progression": 2.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.1259, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.231, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2658, "tackles": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "clearances": 1.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8028, "total_shots": 0.2248, "rating": 6.7724, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 6.4892, "accurate_pass": 5.5712, "duels_won": 1.3096, "total_long_balls": 0.8626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2506, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8059, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7654, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2346, "possession_lost": 0.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8726, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5711, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2304, "fouls_drawn": 0.0815, "blocks": 0.1557, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 2.0303, "total_progression": 2.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.1259, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2459, "fifa_rank": 1423.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1865, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025188, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6709, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (25 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3607, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.171, "total_shots": 0.3957, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6427, "accurate_pass": 3.6322, "duels_won": 0.6366, "total_long_balls": 0.6297, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2465, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5276, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1046, "crosses_total": 0.5692, "crosses_accurate": 0.3558, "touches": 7.2326, "possession_lost": 1.4568, "dispossessed": 0.233, "duels_lost": 1.0637, "aerial_won": 0.1917, "aerial_lost": 0.2932, "interceptions": 0.1991, "tackles_won": 0.1188, "tackles": 0.1738, "clearances": 0.1483, "total_contest": 0.1068, "won_contest": 0.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.2226, "fouls": 0.3149, "fouls_drawn": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0858, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1303, "xgot": 0.11, "ball_carries": 1.099, "total_progression": 3.4722, "progressive_carries": 0.1176, "shots_off_target": 0.2247 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4052, "creative_index": 0.2184, "expectedGoals": 0.0432, "expectedAssists": 0.0568, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3606819212436676, "model_output": 0.3607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4143 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.3607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623616 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101334 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.073608 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.062855 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.03493 } ], "others_margin": -0.010227 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.038571976125240326, "model_output": 0.0386, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0386, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.081142 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.067419 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.046104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028124 } ], "others_margin": -0.110417 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03737650811672211, "model_output": 0.0374, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0374, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319118 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.186166 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.092847 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.081454 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.075776 } ], "others_margin": -0.243832 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03706260770559311, "model_output": 0.0371, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0019 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.0371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606767 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177419 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.111421 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.04852 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034304 } ], "others_margin": -0.052428 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.059143345803022385, "model_output": 0.0591, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.0591, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.173775 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063948 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.06314 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.059196 } ], "others_margin": 0.134154 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17096121609210968, "model_output": 0.171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0121, "total": 0.171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.29918 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.081208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051598 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.043405 } ], "others_margin": 0.072976 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.395658403635025, "model_output": 0.3957, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2263 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": 0.0206, "total": 0.3957, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027594 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.022567 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.018829 } ], "others_margin": 0.020592 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670915126800537, "model_output": 6.6709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074819 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015026 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014095 } ], "others_margin": -0.025903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3619, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1715, "total_shots": 0.397, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.165, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.2255 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3619, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5707, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles_won": 0.1191, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.1649, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.2255 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1489, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.4 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 13.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1254, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0279 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0305 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "scorer_weight": 0.0349, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0273, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "provider_weight": 0.03, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0392, "creation_factor": 0.985, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilia Gruev": { "player_id": 911679, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 185, "market_value": 11000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025188, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025170, "match_date": "2026-02-06", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2883, "expected_assists": 0.4264, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025134, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15129439, "match_date": "2026-01-26", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3426, "combined_rank_score": 1419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 630.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.76, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 2209.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.687, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilia Gruev", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alphonse Aréola", "ranking": 3421 }, { "player_name": "Yarek", "ranking": 3422 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Hofmann", "ranking": 3423 }, { "player_name": "Zion Suzuki", "ranking": 3424 }, { "player_name": "Esmir Bajraktarević", "ranking": 3425 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aaron Hickey", "ranking": 3427 }, { "player_name": "Joaquin Seys", "ranking": 3428 }, { "player_name": "Julián Araujo", "ranking": 3429 }, { "player_name": "Emil Forsberg", "ranking": 3430 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Hughes", "ranking": 3431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.35517694040277, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5161444063819441, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0016, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (23 historical appearances) to 22.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.52)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0311, "assist_rate": 0.0311, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "shots_on_target": 0.0858, "total_shots": 0.2384, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 7.143, "accurate_pass": 5.9766, "duels_won": 0.9167, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3906, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5859, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9839, "possession_lost": 1.6482, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6042, "aerial_won": 0.3505, "aerial_lost": 0.3065, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0915, "tackles": 0.2405, "clearances": 0.6228, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2062, "fouls": 0.0915, "fouls_drawn": 0.3257, "blocks": 0.149, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7399, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1526 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-06", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-26", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4313, "creative_index": 0.2012, "expectedGoals": 0.0254, "expectedAssists": 0.035, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0493 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.26658326387405396, "model_output": 0.2666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4116 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.1023, "total": 0.2666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.617808 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.097985 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.061089 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.055759 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.051342 } ], "others_margin": -0.324897 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02100306935608387, "model_output": 0.021, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530144 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.200336 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.153685 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.113466 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.065891 } ], "others_margin": -0.341966 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.031055033206939697, "model_output": 0.0311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.293082 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.146902 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.103804 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103599 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.099069 } ], "others_margin": -0.286465 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.020174240693449974, "model_output": 0.0202, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.0202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.393149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.19925 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043928 } ], "others_margin": -0.241276 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03276272118091583, "model_output": 0.0328, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0328, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.443986 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.190032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.179903 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094336 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.063484 } ], "others_margin": -0.248744 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08577636629343033, "model_output": 0.0858, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0858, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.538099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.300631 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.189138 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.150752 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035848 } ], "others_margin": -0.119855 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23839828372001648, "model_output": 0.2384, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2169 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.117, "total": 0.2384, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216855 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.028564 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025042 } ], "others_margin": -0.117048 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.68696928024292, "model_output": 6.687, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0737 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073709 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03191 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029367 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007777 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.006768 } ], "others_margin": -0.016556 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.267, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0311, "assist_rate": 0.0311, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "shots_on_target": 0.0859, "total_shots": 0.2388, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 7.1544, "accurate_pass": 5.9862, "duels_won": 0.9182, "total_long_balls": 0.1492, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.396, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.59, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9999, "possession_lost": 1.6508, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0916, "tackles": 0.2409, "clearances": 0.6238, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.0916, "fouls_drawn": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7411, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1528 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0368, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1016, "total_shots": 0.2825, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.36, "projection_minutes": 18.9, "minutes_scale": 1.1828, "appearance_probability": 0.516 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0368, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1016, "total_shots": 0.2825, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1016, "total_shots": 0.2825, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.516, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1016, "total_shots": 0.2825, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3426, "fifa_rank": 2209.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Harry Wilson": { "player_id": 355528, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1523, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2284, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 423, "combined_rank_score": 260.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 20.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.638, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Paredes", "ranking": 419 }, { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 }, { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.547, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (41 historical appearances) to 36.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goals": 0.0737, "goal_rate": 0.0737, "shots_on_target": 0.2297, "total_shots": 0.6449, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.3575, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6181, "accurate_pass": 6.4172, "duels_won": 1.5673, "total_long_balls": 0.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6089, "crosses_total": 0.9439, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 12.5367, "possession_lost": 2.5359, "dispossessed": 0.2181, "duels_lost": 1.9733, "aerial_lost": 0.5884, "total_contest": 0.2588, "won_contest": 0.1927, "ball_recovery": 0.5288, "challenges_lost": 0.5304, "fouls": 0.5702, "fouls_drawn": 0.8212, "assists": 0.1076, "assist_rate": 0.1076, "interceptions": 0.2532, "tackles_won": 0.1737, "tackles": 0.5534, "clearances": 0.1753, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1753, "ball_carries": 3.6846, "total_progression": 6.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.508, "shots_off_target": 0.4152 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.1593, "expectedGoals": 0.0572, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6142, "accuratePass": 10.6788, "totalShots": 0.9865 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.054132383316755295, "model_output": 0.0541, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 0.0541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544183 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.204929 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.082528 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.066692 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049283 } ], "others_margin": -0.346791 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07372473925352097, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.138587 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.100808 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.072036 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.060683 } ], "others_margin": -0.148195 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22970211505889893, "model_output": 0.2297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1987 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 0.2297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46143 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064351 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.044301 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044276 } ], "others_margin": -0.15845 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.644945502281189, "model_output": 0.6449, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1089 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.105, "total": 0.6449, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468678 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.108886 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026184 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.021138 } ], "others_margin": -0.105119 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04187439754605293, "model_output": 0.0419, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0017 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.0419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.271379 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.110185 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053441 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039229 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038146 } ], "others_margin": -0.06994 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35753679275512695, "model_output": 0.3575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0202, "total": 0.3575, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455943 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060214 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05463 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031814 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024392 } ], "others_margin": -0.054846 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6380181312561035, "model_output": 6.638, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 6.638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013198 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011228 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009805 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008017 } ], "others_margin": -0.050538 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "total_shots": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.3598, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6653, "accurate_pass": 6.457, "duels_won": 1.577, "total_long_balls": 0.8607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4113, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6313, "crosses_total": 0.9498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1764, "touches": 12.6144, "possession_lost": 2.5516, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 1.9855, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.2604, "won_contest": 0.1939, "ball_recovery": 0.5321, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.5737, "fouls_drawn": 0.8263, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "interceptions": 0.2548, "tackles_won": 0.1748, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.1764, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1764, "ball_carries": 3.7074, "total_progression": 6.8004, "progressive_carries": 0.5111, "shots_off_target": 0.4178 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.2298, "total_shots": 0.6464, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.3598, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6653, "accurate_pass": 6.457, "duels_won": 1.577, "total_long_balls": 0.8607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4113, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6313, "crosses_total": 0.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.1764, "touches": 12.6144, "possession_lost": 2.5516, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 1.9855, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.2604, "won_contest": 0.1939, "ball_recovery": 0.5321, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.5716, "fouls_drawn": 0.8228, "assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "interceptions": 0.2557, "tackles_won": 0.175, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.1764, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 3.7074, "total_progression": 6.8004, "progressive_carries": 0.5111, "shots_off_target": 0.4178 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2438, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.9 to 36.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assists": 0.1615, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.59, "projection_minutes": 21.94, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assists": 0.1615, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0818, "after": 0.0424 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.0344 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 423, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "scorer_weight": 0.0517, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0405, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0561, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya": { "player_id": 1146148, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2937, "combined_rank_score": 976.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6129, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robbie Brady", "ranking": 2932 }, { "player_name": "José Tapia", "ranking": 2933 }, { "player_name": "Anibal Gajardo", "ranking": 2934 }, { "player_name": "Wisdom Mike", "ranking": 2935 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Souček", "ranking": 2936 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Íñigo Lekue", "ranking": 2938 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Luque Notaro", "ranking": 2939 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Aškovski", "ranking": 2940 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rosier", "ranking": 2941 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Lerma", "ranking": 2942 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.20735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6003344610298231, "market_value_adjustment": 1.035, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (2 historical appearances) to 26.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.076, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "shots_on_target": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.5723, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0.2951, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 12.93, "total_pass": 1.5405, "accurate_pass": 1.5405, "duels_won": 0.9189, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.0, "possession_lost": 0.5405, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5405, "aerial_lost": 0.5405, "total_contest": 0.4595, "won_contest": 0.4595, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4595, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 14.5027, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3357 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.0, "accuratePass": 1.5405, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07603158056735992, "model_output": 0.076, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0741 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.076, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4704 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178859 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.093739 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.053817 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049573 } ], "others_margin": -0.108302 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06892050057649612, "model_output": 0.0689, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0771 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.0689, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476545 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.191858 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.092839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070006 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.065781 } ], "others_margin": -0.184985 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23662476241588593, "model_output": 0.2366, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.2366, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.089275 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060438 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.059778 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044442 } ], "others_margin": -0.107502 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5723177194595337, "model_output": 0.5723, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4755 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1391 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.1632, "total": 0.5723, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475543 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139113 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.058489 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047746 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.034453 } ], "others_margin": -0.163156 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.01191001571714878, "model_output": 0.0119, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0119, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480741 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.331263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.229107 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.16627 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.107915 } ], "others_margin": -0.369568 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29510289430618286, "model_output": 0.2951, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2739 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0332 } ], "others": -0.1176, "total": 0.2951, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522035 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.107603 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.102835 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.100571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.077301 } ], "others_margin": -0.3355 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612921237945557, "model_output": 6.6129, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0683 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0834, "total": 6.6129, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.047978 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015944 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014523 } ], "others_margin": -0.083307 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0350, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2449, "total_shots": 0.5924, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3054, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 12.93, "total_pass": 1.5944, "accurate_pass": 1.5944, "duels_won": 0.9511, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.035, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.14, "possession_lost": 0.5594, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5594, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.4756, "won_contest": 0.4756, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4756, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.07, "total_progression": 15.0103, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3474 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.107, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.21, "projection_minutes": 12.93, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.6 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.107, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1181, "after": 0.0671 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0185, "after": 0.0111 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.107, "scorer_weight": 0.0627, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0491, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0089, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1865, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025188, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6709, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (25 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3607, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.171, "total_shots": 0.3957, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6427, "accurate_pass": 3.6322, "duels_won": 0.6366, "total_long_balls": 0.6297, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2465, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5276, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1046, "crosses_total": 0.5692, "crosses_accurate": 0.3558, "touches": 7.2326, "possession_lost": 1.4568, "dispossessed": 0.233, "duels_lost": 1.0637, "aerial_won": 0.1917, "aerial_lost": 0.2932, "interceptions": 0.1991, "tackles_won": 0.1188, "tackles": 0.1738, "clearances": 0.1483, "total_contest": 0.1068, "won_contest": 0.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.2226, "fouls": 0.3149, "fouls_drawn": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0858, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1303, "xgot": 0.11, "ball_carries": 1.099, "total_progression": 3.4722, "progressive_carries": 0.1176, "shots_off_target": 0.2247 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4052, "creative_index": 0.2184, "expectedGoals": 0.0432, "expectedAssists": 0.0568, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3606819212436676, "model_output": 0.3607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4143 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.3607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623616 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101334 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.073608 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.062855 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.03493 } ], "others_margin": -0.010227 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.038571976125240326, "model_output": 0.0386, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0386, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.081142 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.067419 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.046104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028124 } ], "others_margin": -0.110417 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03737650811672211, "model_output": 0.0374, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0374, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319118 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.186166 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.092847 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.081454 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.075776 } ], "others_margin": -0.243832 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03706260770559311, "model_output": 0.0371, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0019 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.0371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606767 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177419 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.111421 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.04852 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034304 } ], "others_margin": -0.052428 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.059143345803022385, "model_output": 0.0591, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.0591, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.173775 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063948 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.06314 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.059196 } ], "others_margin": 0.134154 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17096121609210968, "model_output": 0.171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0121, "total": 0.171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.29918 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.081208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051598 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.043405 } ], "others_margin": 0.072976 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.395658403635025, "model_output": 0.3957, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2263 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": 0.0206, "total": 0.3957, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027594 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.022567 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.018829 } ], "others_margin": 0.020592 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670915126800537, "model_output": 6.6709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074819 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015026 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014095 } ], "others_margin": -0.025903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3619, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1715, "total_shots": 0.397, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.165, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.2255 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3619, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5707, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles_won": 0.1191, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.1649, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.2255 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1489, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.4 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 13.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1254, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0279 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0305 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "scorer_weight": 0.0349, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0273, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.6709, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.985, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "provider_weight": 0.03, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0392, "creation_factor": 0.985, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya": { "player_id": 1146148, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2937, "combined_rank_score": 976.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6129, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robbie Brady", "ranking": 2932 }, { "player_name": "José Tapia", "ranking": 2933 }, { "player_name": "Anibal Gajardo", "ranking": 2934 }, { "player_name": "Wisdom Mike", "ranking": 2935 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Souček", "ranking": 2936 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Íñigo Lekue", "ranking": 2938 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Luque Notaro", "ranking": 2939 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Aškovski", "ranking": 2940 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rosier", "ranking": 2941 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Lerma", "ranking": 2942 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.20735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6003344610298231, "market_value_adjustment": 1.035, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (2 historical appearances) to 26.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.076, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "shots_on_target": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.5723, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0.2951, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 12.93, "total_pass": 1.5405, "accurate_pass": 1.5405, "duels_won": 0.9189, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.0, "possession_lost": 0.5405, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5405, "aerial_lost": 0.5405, "total_contest": 0.4595, "won_contest": 0.4595, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4595, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 14.5027, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3357 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.0, "accuratePass": 1.5405, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07603158056735992, "model_output": 0.076, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0741 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.076, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4704 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178859 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.093739 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.053817 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049573 } ], "others_margin": -0.108302 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06892050057649612, "model_output": 0.0689, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0771 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.0689, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476545 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.191858 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.092839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070006 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.065781 } ], "others_margin": -0.184985 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23662476241588593, "model_output": 0.2366, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.2366, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.089275 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060438 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.059778 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044442 } ], "others_margin": -0.107502 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5723177194595337, "model_output": 0.5723, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4755 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1391 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.1632, "total": 0.5723, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475543 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139113 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.058489 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047746 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.034453 } ], "others_margin": -0.163156 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.01191001571714878, "model_output": 0.0119, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0119, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480741 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.331263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.229107 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.16627 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.107915 } ], "others_margin": -0.369568 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29510289430618286, "model_output": 0.2951, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2739 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0332 } ], "others": -0.1176, "total": 0.2951, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522035 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.107603 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.102835 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.100571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.077301 } ], "others_margin": -0.3355 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612921237945557, "model_output": 6.6129, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0683 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0834, "total": 6.6129, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.047978 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015944 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014523 } ], "others_margin": -0.083307 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0350, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2449, "total_shots": 0.5924, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3054, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 12.93, "total_pass": 1.5944, "accurate_pass": 1.5944, "duels_won": 0.9511, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.035, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.14, "possession_lost": 0.5594, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5594, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.4756, "won_contest": 0.4756, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4756, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.07, "total_progression": 15.0103, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3474 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.107, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.21, "projection_minutes": 12.93, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.6 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.107, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1181, "after": 0.0671 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0185, "after": 0.0111 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.107, "scorer_weight": 0.0627, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0491, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "total_shots": 0.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6129, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 0.934, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0089, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Harry Wilson": { "player_id": 355528, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1523, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2284, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 423, "combined_rank_score": 260.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 20.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.638, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Paredes", "ranking": 419 }, { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 }, { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.547, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (41 historical appearances) to 36.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goals": 0.0737, "goal_rate": 0.0737, "shots_on_target": 0.2297, "total_shots": 0.6449, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.3575, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6181, "accurate_pass": 6.4172, "duels_won": 1.5673, "total_long_balls": 0.8554, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6089, "crosses_total": 0.9439, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 12.5367, "possession_lost": 2.5359, "dispossessed": 0.2181, "duels_lost": 1.9733, "aerial_lost": 0.5884, "total_contest": 0.2588, "won_contest": 0.1927, "ball_recovery": 0.5288, "challenges_lost": 0.5304, "fouls": 0.5702, "fouls_drawn": 0.8212, "assists": 0.1076, "assist_rate": 0.1076, "interceptions": 0.2532, "tackles_won": 0.1737, "tackles": 0.5534, "clearances": 0.1753, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1753, "ball_carries": 3.6846, "total_progression": 6.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.508, "shots_off_target": 0.4152 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.1593, "expectedGoals": 0.0572, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6142, "accuratePass": 10.6788, "totalShots": 0.9865 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.054132383316755295, "model_output": 0.0541, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 0.0541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544183 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.204929 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.082528 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.066692 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049283 } ], "others_margin": -0.346791 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07372473925352097, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.138587 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.100808 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.072036 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.060683 } ], "others_margin": -0.148195 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22970211505889893, "model_output": 0.2297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1987 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 0.2297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46143 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064351 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.044301 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044276 } ], "others_margin": -0.15845 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.644945502281189, "model_output": 0.6449, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1089 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.105, "total": 0.6449, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468678 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.108886 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026184 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.021138 } ], "others_margin": -0.105119 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04187439754605293, "model_output": 0.0419, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0017 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.0419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.271379 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.110185 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053441 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039229 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038146 } ], "others_margin": -0.06994 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35753679275512695, "model_output": 0.3575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0202, "total": 0.3575, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455943 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060214 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05463 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031814 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024392 } ], "others_margin": -0.054846 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6380181312561035, "model_output": 6.638, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 6.638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013198 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011228 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009805 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008017 } ], "others_margin": -0.050538 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "total_shots": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.3598, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6653, "accurate_pass": 6.457, "duels_won": 1.577, "total_long_balls": 0.8607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4113, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6313, "crosses_total": 0.9498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1764, "touches": 12.6144, "possession_lost": 2.5516, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 1.9855, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.2604, "won_contest": 0.1939, "ball_recovery": 0.5321, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.5737, "fouls_drawn": 0.8263, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "interceptions": 0.2548, "tackles_won": 0.1748, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.1764, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1764, "ball_carries": 3.7074, "total_progression": 6.8004, "progressive_carries": 0.5111, "shots_off_target": 0.4178 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.2298, "total_shots": 0.6464, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.3598, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 21.94, "total_pass": 7.6653, "accurate_pass": 6.457, "duels_won": 1.577, "total_long_balls": 0.8607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4113, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6313, "crosses_total": 0.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.1764, "touches": 12.6144, "possession_lost": 2.5516, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 1.9855, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.2604, "won_contest": 0.1939, "ball_recovery": 0.5321, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.5716, "fouls_drawn": 0.8228, "assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "interceptions": 0.2557, "tackles_won": 0.175, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.1764, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 3.7074, "total_progression": 6.8004, "progressive_carries": 0.5111, "shots_off_target": 0.4178 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2438, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.9 to 36.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assists": 0.1615, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.59, "projection_minutes": 21.94, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assists": 0.1615, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.2741, xG scale 0.9474, xA scale 0.9960, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.207, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2741, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7877, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9474, "xa_scale": 0.996, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0818, "after": 0.0424 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.0344 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 423, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "scorer_weight": 0.0517, "squad_weight_total": 1.2764, "weight_share": 0.0405, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3547, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3547, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3447, "total_shots": 0.9714, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5397, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.4979, "accurate_pass": 9.6855, "duels_won": 2.3655, "total_long_balls": 1.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "crosses_total": 1.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2646, "touches": 18.9216, "possession_lost": 3.8274, "dispossessed": 0.2195, "duels_lost": 2.9783, "aerial_lost": 0.592, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.2908, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.5337, "fouls": 0.8574, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3835, "tackles_won": 0.2625, "tackles": 0.8352, "clearances": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.1766, "ball_carries": 5.5611, "total_progression": 10.2006, "progressive_carries": 0.7667, "shots_off_target": 0.6267, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.2193, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 0.7668, "weight_share": 0.0561, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Anton Stach", "weight": 0.0987, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.0987, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0981, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.21, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 383, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } }, "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Senne Lammens": { "player_id": 964753, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3804 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.494 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.0345 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.9145 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.4931 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.089 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.814 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.8106 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 551, "combined_rank_score": 305.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 381.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9669, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raniele", "ranking": 546 }, { "player_name": "David Button", "ranking": 547 }, { "player_name": "Demethryus", "ranking": 548 }, { "player_name": "Pil-su Choi", "ranking": 549 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Mayol", "ranking": 550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Arce", "ranking": 552 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Panach Olmo", "ranking": 553 }, { "player_name": "Edu Altozano", "ranking": 554 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0092, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8285, "goals_prevented": -0.0791, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.3605, "accurate_pass": 16.0722, "total_long_balls": 11.5521, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4353, "touches": 32.1919, "clearances": 0.8189, "ball_recovery": 7.0106, "high_claims": 0.6708, "punches": 0.7744, "aerial_won": 0.3373, "sweeper_actions": 0.8641, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8641, "saves_inside_box": 2.3456, "possession_lost": 8.3482, "duels_won": 0.5498, "duels_lost": 0.0214, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.213, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8406 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 9.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 3.4353, "save_contribution": 3.0971, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8729, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.8406, "passValueNormalized": 0.0396, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.8887 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8285059928894043, "model_output": 2.8285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1036 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0261, "total": 2.8285, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.035866 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012451 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.00616 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.005316 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.005037 } ], "others_margin": -0.009161 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.07905913889408112, "model_output": -0.0791, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": 0.02, "total": -0.0791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.037414 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.018428 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014108 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014027 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.012917 } ], "others_margin": 0.020113 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.966921329498291, "model_output": 6.9669, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0137, "total": 6.9669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.029573 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.027666 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027306 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.025258 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.010341 } ], "others_margin": 0.013647 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8545, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.215, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2813 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.2, "after": 11.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.99, "after": 2.82 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.03, "after": 0.97 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 551, "fifa_rank": 381.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8509, "goals_prevented": -0.0798, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.5846, "accurate_pass": 16.2201, "total_long_balls": 11.6584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4669, "touches": 32.4881, "clearances": 0.8264, "ball_recovery": 7.0751, "high_claims": 0.677, "punches": 0.7815, "aerial_won": 0.3404, "sweeper_actions": 0.872, "sweeper_accurate": 0.872, "saves_inside_box": 2.3672, "possession_lost": 8.425, "duels_won": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 0.0216, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2128, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9679, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2813, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "player_id": 927083, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 73000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4486, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5288, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3615, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2439, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2709, "expected_assists": 0.2464, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4885, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.758, "expected_assists": 0.2115, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4969, "expected_assists": 0.2278, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9174, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.5675, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.417, "expected_assists": 0.4265, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 318, "combined_rank_score": 216.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1323, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "ranking": 313 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 314 }, { "player_name": "Juan Musso", "ranking": 315 }, { "player_name": "Ju-kong Kim", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yong Bak", "ranking": 317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 }, { "player_name": "Mario Rivas", "ranking": 321 }, { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 }, { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 323 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0126, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 4.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.373, "goals": 0.4127, "goal_rate": 0.4127, "shots_on_target": 1.0267, "total_shots": 2.3627, "expected_assists": 0.1322, "key_pass": 1.5209, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.0369, "accurate_pass": 21.5065, "duels_won": 3.1705, "total_long_balls": 0.5777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.284, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8752, "crosses_total": 3.3935, "crosses_accurate": 1.0436, "touches": 40.9906, "possession_lost": 10.4697, "dispossessed": 0.7455, "duels_lost": 6.2474, "aerial_lost": 2.367, "total_contest": 2.4123, "won_contest": 0.9914, "ball_recovery": 2.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.8136, "fouls": 0.9004, "fouls_drawn": 0.8555, "assists": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "interceptions": 0.6501, "tackles_won": 0.5407, "tackles": 0.7618, "clearances": 0.4482, "blocks": 0.1155, "big_chances_created": 0.2988, "big_chances_missed": 0.7082, "xgot": 0.4394, "offsides": 0.1972, "ball_carries": 12.7584, "total_progression": 63.6762, "progressive_carries": 2.9856, "shots_off_target": 1.336 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 18.8203, "expectedGoals": 0.5216, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 16.2757, "accuratePass": 20.663, "totalShots": 2.8743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3730201721191406, "model_output": 0.373, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0684 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0693 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.297317 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.23162 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.075245 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.050607 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.046905 } ], "others_margin": -0.065901 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4126739799976349, "model_output": 0.4127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0865 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": 0.0503, "total": 0.4127, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.330815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.266547 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.094421 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.065868 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048353 } ], "others_margin": 0.13013 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.0266766548156738, "model_output": 1.0267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2004 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0514 } ], "others": 0.1538, "total": 1.0267, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.316861 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.081033 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.073285 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.070755 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.057156 } ], "others_margin": 0.162097 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.3627026081085205, "model_output": 2.3627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5047 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2036 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0769 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0539 } ], "others": 0.0879, "total": 2.3627, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.504745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.203648 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.076866 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061948 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053866 } ], "others_margin": 0.087788 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1321685016155243, "model_output": 0.1322, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": 0.0289, "total": 0.1322, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.234162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.173079 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.083268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.082032 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.070119 } ], "others_margin": 0.245708 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.52086341381073, "model_output": 1.5209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.149 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1254 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1227 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0463 } ], "others": 0.2353, "total": 1.5209, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.223727 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.162905 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119161 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.104241 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.036672 } ], "others_margin": 0.168034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1323370933532715, "model_output": 7.1323, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0772 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": 0.1263, "total": 7.1323, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.077218 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05146 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.0403 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.039219 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.030803 } ], "others_margin": 0.126333 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.875)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3777, "goals": 0.4179, "goal_rate": 0.4179, "shots_on_target": 1.0396, "total_shots": 2.3925, "expected_assists": 0.1338, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4363, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9117, "fouls_drawn": 0.8663, "assists": 0.0257, "assist_rate": 0.0257, "interceptions": 0.6583, "tackles_won": 0.5475, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7171, "xgot": 0.4449, "offsides": 0.1997, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3528 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 73000000, "quality_factor": 0.8747, "boost_factor": 1.0126, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3777, "goals": 0.4185, "goal_rate": 0.4185, "shots_on_target": 1.0434, "total_shots": 2.411, "expected_assists": 0.1338, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assists": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7171, "xgot": 0.4449, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3528 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9496, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.4363, "after": 3.4726 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3925, "after": 2.411 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6583, "after": 0.6518 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3777, "goals": 0.4185, "goal_rate": 0.4185, "shots_on_target": 1.0434, "total_shots": 2.411, "expected_assists": 0.1338, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assists": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7171, "xgot": 0.4449, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3528 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3853, "goals": 0.427, "goal_rate": 0.427, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1338, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assists": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.4539, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "skill_edge": 0.0737, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.8747, "defender_skill": 0.7109, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 11000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5755 } ], "xg_override": 0.3853 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.411, "after": 2.4597 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3528, "after": 1.3801 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0434, "after": 1.0645 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.7171, "after": 0.7316 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4449, "after": 0.4539 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4185, "after": 0.427 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3777, "after": 0.3853 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3853, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1338, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.4539, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4486, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.5288, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3853, "after": 0.4486 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1338, "after": 0.1512 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4486, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.5288, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 318, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4486, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.5288, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3615, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3615, "goal_rate": 0.427, "scorer_weight": 0.4916, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.2902, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4486, "goal_rate": 0.427, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0645, "total_shots": 2.4597, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.54, "rating": 7.1323, "minutes": 85.46, "total_pass": 25.3524, "accurate_pass": 21.7775, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 0.585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0878, "crosses_total": 3.4726, "crosses_accurate": 1.0567, "touches": 41.5071, "possession_lost": 10.6016, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 6.3261, "aerial_lost": 2.3968, "total_contest": 2.4427, "won_contest": 1.0039, "ball_recovery": 2.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.8239, "fouls": 0.9074, "fouls_drawn": 0.8624, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6518, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.7714, "clearances": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.3026, "big_chances_missed": 0.7316, "xgot": 0.5288, "offsides": 0.2024, "ball_carries": 12.9192, "total_progression": 64.4785, "progressive_carries": 3.0232, "shots_off_target": 1.3801, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3615, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "finishing_factor": 1.0958, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "assist_rate": 0.0254, "provider_weight": 0.121, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0961, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2056, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2032, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1692, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1809, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "expected_assists": 0.3943, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.108, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1178, "expected_assists": 0.054, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.1515, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2431, "expected_assists": 0.2127, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.319, "expected_assists": 0.4868, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3259, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 356, "combined_rank_score": 231.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 261.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0909, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9806, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorginho", "ranking": 351 }, { "player_name": "Renê", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Amanov", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Aboubacar Toungara", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking": 357 }, { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0128, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 158.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 2.85, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1622, "goals": 0.219, "goal_rate": 0.219, "shots_on_target": 0.6888, "total_shots": 2.0856, "expected_assists": 0.162, "key_pass": 1.5517, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 28.8727, "accurate_pass": 23.8302, "duels_won": 4.0234, "total_long_balls": 0.7509, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3768, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6596, "crosses_total": 1.6567, "crosses_accurate": 0.2109, "touches": 46.1245, "possession_lost": 11.7895, "dispossessed": 1.3137, "duels_lost": 5.2336, "aerial_lost": 1.2088, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.8331, "ball_recovery": 3.6408, "challenges_lost": 0.5017, "fouls": 1.3936, "fouls_drawn": 1.5207, "assists": 0.2317, "assist_rate": 0.2317, "interceptions": 0.5858, "tackles_won": 1.0985, "tackles": 1.3587, "clearances": 0.3306, "blocks": 0.1895, "big_chances_created": 0.3347, "big_chances_missed": 0.0098, "xgot": 0.1602, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 77.0091, "progressive_carries": 3.0876, "shots_off_target": 1.3968 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 19.5935, "expectedGoals": 0.1545, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 15.5124, "accuratePass": 23.5699, "totalShots": 2.514 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16219639778137207, "model_output": 0.1622, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.1622, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.274329 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.16429 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.078476 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.073144 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.063675 } ], "others_margin": -0.091773 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.21902231872081757, "model_output": 0.219, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0652 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 0.219, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.278022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.183906 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.074871 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.064632 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.052793 } ], "others_margin": 0.043125 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6888429522514343, "model_output": 0.6888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1667 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0696 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0256 } ], "others": 0.0701, "total": 0.6888, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.270083 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.104032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.072354 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057282 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.040569 } ], "others_margin": 0.107253 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0856399536132812, "model_output": 2.0856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2244 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0392 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 2.0856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.458159 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224435 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.062311 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.055487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039207 } ], "others_margin": -0.003178 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.16200946271419525, "model_output": 0.162, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": 0.0431, "total": 0.162, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.197217 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.174875 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.098562 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.083085 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063587 } ], "others_margin": 0.308084 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5517340898513794, "model_output": 1.5517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1715 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1427 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1145 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0857 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.071 } ], "others": 0.2929, "total": 1.5517, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.226898 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.156061 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109723 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.074901 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.058078 } ], "others_margin": 0.209174 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.980584144592285, "model_output": 6.9806, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 6.9806, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.062068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05766 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.029957 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.017947 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01766 } ], "others_margin": 0.028289 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1643, "goals": 0.2218, "goal_rate": 0.2218, "shots_on_target": 0.6977, "total_shots": 2.1124, "expected_assists": 0.1641, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6779, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4114, "fouls_drawn": 1.5402, "assists": 0.2347, "assist_rate": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.5933, "tackles_won": 1.1126, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0099, "xgot": 0.1623, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.4147 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 79000000, "quality_factor": 0.8811, "boost_factor": 1.0128, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0089)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1643, "goals": 0.2198, "goal_rate": 0.2198, "shots_on_target": 0.701, "total_shots": 2.1173, "expected_assists": 0.1641, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assists": 0.2372, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0099, "xgot": 0.1623, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.4147 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0089, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9371, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1126, "after": 1.1027 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4114, "after": 1.4035 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5933, "after": 0.588 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1643, "goals": 0.2198, "goal_rate": 0.2198, "shots_on_target": 0.701, "total_shots": 2.1173, "expected_assists": 0.1641, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assists": 0.2372, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0099, "xgot": 0.1623, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.4147 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.2362, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1641, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assists": 0.2372, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.1744, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "skill_edge": 0.0766, "height_edge": -0.026, "attacker_skill": 0.8811, "defender_skill": 0.7109, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 11000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5755 } ], "xg_override": 0.1765 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1173, "after": 2.2748 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4147, "after": 1.52 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.701, "after": 0.7532 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2198, "after": 0.2362 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1643, "after": 0.1765 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1623, "after": 0.1744 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1641, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.1744, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2056, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.2032, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1765, "after": 0.2056 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1641, "after": 0.1854 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2056, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.2032, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 356, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2056, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.2032, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "scorer_weight": 0.257, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.1517, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2056, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7532, "total_shots": 2.2748, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.5716, "rating": 6.9806, "minutes": 84.34, "total_pass": 29.2423, "accurate_pass": 24.1352, "duels_won": 4.0749, "total_long_balls": 0.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.86, "crosses_total": 1.6815, "crosses_accurate": 0.2136, "touches": 46.7149, "possession_lost": 11.9404, "dispossessed": 1.3305, "duels_lost": 5.3006, "aerial_lost": 1.2243, "total_contest": 1.749, "won_contest": 0.8438, "ball_recovery": 3.6874, "challenges_lost": 0.5081, "fouls": 1.4035, "fouls_drawn": 1.5404, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.588, "tackles_won": 1.1027, "tackles": 1.3761, "clearances": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1919, "big_chances_created": 0.339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0106, "xgot": 0.2032, "offsides": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 14.6592, "total_progression": 77.9948, "progressive_carries": 3.1271, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1692, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "provider_weight": 0.2318, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.1842, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "player_id": 288205, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 179, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2567, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 43, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2528, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1954, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2264, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2779, "expected_assists": 0.1929, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0292, "expected_assists": 0.3259, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1542, "expected_assists": 0.0615, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 2.0223, "expected_assists": 0.4802, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.2565, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 74, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "expected_assists": 0.1451, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1944, "expected_assists": 0.8829, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1073, "expected_assists": 0.9081, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8, "combined_rank_score": 14.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 8.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 20.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.144, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0074, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 1.5, "assists_per90": 0.5, "shots_per90": 5.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 36.4, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 1.5, ast/90: 0.5)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8548, "expected_assists": 0.2255, "assists": 0.3355, "assist_rate": 0.3355, "expected_goals": 0.22, "goals": 0.3417, "goal_rate": 0.3417, "shots_on_target": 0.7384, "total_shots": 2.2888, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 57.9264, "accurate_pass": 48.0985, "duels_won": 2.3363, "total_long_balls": 6.6673, "accurate_long_balls": 4.175, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6984, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9628, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.1357, "crosses_total": 6.9897, "crosses_accurate": 1.9984, "touches": 75.8364, "possession_lost": 17.6118, "dispossessed": 0.7781, "duels_lost": 3.6577, "aerial_won": 0.286, "aerial_lost": 0.3629, "interceptions": 0.2691, "tackles_won": 0.7129, "tackles": 1.141, "clearances": 0.3662, "total_contest": 0.8006, "won_contest": 0.2111, "challenges_lost": 1.0796, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.6984, "blocks": 0.2344, "big_chances_created": 0.5542, "big_chances_missed": 0.1635, "xgot": 0.2557, "ball_carries": 16.8363, "total_progression": 70.9001, "progressive_carries": 1.8416, "shots_off_target": 1.5503 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.6841, "creative_index": 1.5512, "expectedGoals": 0.2874, "expectedAssists": 0.3104, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.666 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.8547744750976562, "model_output": 2.8548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.2494 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.2044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1697 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0989 } ], "others": 1.1154, "total": 2.8548, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.246334 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.164623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11866 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.078611 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.058552 } ], "others_margin": 0.495401 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.2255416065454483, "model_output": 0.2255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": 0.0878, "total": 0.2255, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.157214 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.108659 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093097 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.071748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044407 } ], "others_margin": 0.493226 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.3354654610157013, "model_output": 0.3355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.1509, "total": 0.3355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.171564 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.163167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.147753 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.140479 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.126596 } ], "others_margin": 0.597278 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.22001363337039948, "model_output": 0.22, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.22, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.401332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.207496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060894 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.051043 } ], "others_margin": 0.007074 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.341683566570282, "model_output": 0.3417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": 0.1107, "total": 0.3417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.399997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.182013 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105748 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.086469 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.085167 } ], "others_margin": 0.391684 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7384393215179443, "model_output": 0.7384, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0984 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0352 } ], "others": 0.0632, "total": 0.7384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.270898 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.207354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070007 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.053602 } ], "others_margin": 0.089438 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.288757085800171, "model_output": 2.2888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6775 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1841 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.101 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0904 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0695 } ], "others": 0.1708, "total": 2.2888, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.677535 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.184143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.100966 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090443 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.069478 } ], "others_margin": 0.170656 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.144043922424316, "model_output": 7.144, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1101 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1023 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": 0.1257, "total": 7.144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.110103 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.102335 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "margin": -0.045931 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027382 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026064 } ], "others_margin": 0.125798 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2272, "assists": 0.3379, "assist_rate": 0.3379, "expected_goals": 0.2216, "goals": 0.3442, "goal_rate": 0.3442, "shots_on_target": 0.7439, "total_shots": 2.3057, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0414, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 0.2881, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2711, "tackles_won": 0.7182, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.854, "fouls_drawn": 0.7036, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1647, "xgot": 0.2576, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.5618 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2272, "assists": 0.3394, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "expected_goals": 0.2216, "goals": 0.355, "goal_rate": 0.355, "shots_on_target": 0.7556, "total_shots": 2.3355, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 0.2881, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1647, "xgot": 0.2576, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.5618 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9949, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3057, "after": 2.3355 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7439, "after": 0.7556 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3442, "after": 0.355 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7036, "after": 0.697 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2272, "assists": 0.3394, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "expected_goals": 0.2216, "goals": 0.355, "goal_rate": 0.355, "shots_on_target": 0.7556, "total_shots": 2.3355, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 0.2881, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1647, "xgot": 0.2576, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.5618 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2272, "assists": 0.3394, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "expected_goals": 0.1866, "goals": 0.299, "goal_rate": 0.299, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.217, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "skill_edge": -0.0514, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.732, "defender_skill": 0.8462, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 } ], "xg_override": 0.1866 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2881, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3355, "after": 1.967 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5618, "after": 1.3153 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7556, "after": 0.6364 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.355, "after": 0.299 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2576, "after": 0.217 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2216, "after": 0.1866 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1647, "after": 0.1387 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2272, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1866, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.217, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2567, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.2528, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1866, "after": 0.2174 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2272, "after": 0.2567 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2567, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.2528, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 8, "fifa_rank": 20.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2567, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.2528, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1954, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1954, "goal_rate": 0.299, "scorer_weight": 0.2717, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.1604, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.8759, "expected_assists": 0.2567, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.967, "rating": 7.144, "minutes": 89.54, "total_pass": 58.3551, "accurate_pass": 48.4544, "duels_won": 2.3536, "total_long_balls": 6.7166, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2059, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.5405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3883, "crosses_total": 7.0407, "crosses_accurate": 2.0132, "touches": 76.3976, "possession_lost": 17.7421, "dispossessed": 0.7839, "duels_lost": 3.6848, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3656, "interceptions": 0.2732, "tackles_won": 0.7161, "tackles": 1.1494, "clearances": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.8065, "won_contest": 0.2127, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.8506, "fouls_drawn": 0.697, "blocks": 0.2361, "big_chances_created": 0.5583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.2528, "ball_carries": 16.9609, "total_progression": 71.4248, "progressive_carries": 1.8552, "shots_off_target": 1.3153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1954, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2264, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2264, "assist_rate": 0.3394, "provider_weight": 0.3209, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.255, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Amad Diallo": { "player_id": 971037, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 173, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.182, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.08, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "expected_assists": 0.791, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1239, "expected_assists": 0.3311, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4818, "expected_assists": 0.029, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.033, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1262, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1014, "combined_rank_score": 573.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 449.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8937, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 698.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8407, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amad Diallo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás González", "ranking": 1009 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Francés", "ranking": 1010 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Kudus", "ranking": 1011 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Seiwald", "ranking": 1012 }, { "player_name": "Mateus Fernandes", "ranking": 1013 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dani Parejo", "ranking": 1015 }, { "player_name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "ranking": 1016 }, { "player_name": "Min-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1017 }, { "player_name": "Tim Hartzell", "ranking": 1018 }, { "player_name": "Dae-kwang Lee", "ranking": 1019 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0117, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1343, "goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.185, "shots_on_target": 0.5712, "total_shots": 1.6608, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.896, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.6233, "accurate_pass": 22.5457, "duels_won": 3.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.5449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4553, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3756, "crosses_total": 0.9744, "crosses_accurate": 0.1997, "touches": 39.6631, "possession_lost": 7.9898, "dispossessed": 0.6729, "duels_lost": 4.3074, "aerial_lost": 0.5019, "total_contest": 2.9135, "won_contest": 1.1457, "ball_recovery": 3.5277, "challenges_lost": 0.4973, "fouls": 0.9089, "fouls_drawn": 0.7884, "assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.14, "interceptions": 0.7219, "tackles_won": 0.7333, "tackles": 1.0156, "clearances": 0.5431, "blocks": 0.099, "big_chances_created": 0.2999, "big_chances_missed": 0.1866, "xgot": 0.159, "offsides": 0.2419, "ball_carries": 13.897, "total_progression": 62.4361, "progressive_carries": 3.1144, "shots_off_target": 1.0896 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.9148, "expectedGoals": 0.1226, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.9983, "accuratePass": 18.4918, "totalShots": 1.6182 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1343054622411728, "model_output": 0.1343, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 0.1343, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.251814 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.193859 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.132058 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.098723 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.061553 } ], "others_margin": -0.151343 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1849932223558426, "model_output": 0.185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 0.185, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.279654 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169953 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.102264 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.07669 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.034716 } ], "others_margin": 0.009322 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5712049603462219, "model_output": 0.5712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1409 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0555 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 0.5712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.232709 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.094305 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.09411 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.06587 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027116 } ], "others_margin": 0.055002 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.660787582397461, "model_output": 1.6608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4519 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1092 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1015 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0398 } ], "others": -0.0609, "total": 1.6608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.451873 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109181 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.10147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.071898 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039755 } ], "others_margin": -0.060984 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07296627014875412, "model_output": 0.073, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.073, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161979 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.13303 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094983 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.068832 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.063651 } ], "others_margin": -0.001362 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8959586024284363, "model_output": 0.896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.171 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0841 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0675 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.065 } ], "others": 0.0475, "total": 0.896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.226327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094891 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.08722 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.082621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079763 } ], "others_margin": 0.05446 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840740203857422, "model_output": 6.8407, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 6.8407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052294 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.030459 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.023474 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.023116 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.011926 } ], "others_margin": 0.002552 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goals": 0.1872, "goal_rate": 0.1872, "shots_on_target": 0.5779, "total_shots": 1.6802, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assists": 0.1416, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1888, "xgot": 0.1609, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.1023 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goals": 0.1872, "goal_rate": 0.1872, "shots_on_target": 0.5779, "total_shots": 1.6802, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assists": 0.1416, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1888, "xgot": 0.1609, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.1023 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goals": 0.1818, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assists": 0.1416, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.1562, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "skill_edge": 0.0402, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.7109, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 11000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5755 } ], "xg_override": 0.1319 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6802, "after": 1.6313 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1023, "after": 1.0702 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5779, "after": 0.5611 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1888, "after": 0.1833 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1872, "after": 0.1818 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.1562, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.182, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1319, "after": 0.1537 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0738, "after": 0.0834 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.182, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1014, "fifa_rank": 698.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.182, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1425, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "scorer_weight": 0.1921, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.1134, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5611, "total_shots": 1.6313, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "key_pass": 0.9064, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 25.9231, "accurate_pass": 22.8095, "duels_won": 3.4161, "total_long_balls": 0.5513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5555, "crosses_total": 0.9858, "crosses_accurate": 0.202, "touches": 40.1272, "possession_lost": 8.0833, "dispossessed": 0.6808, "duels_lost": 4.3578, "aerial_lost": 0.5078, "total_contest": 2.9476, "won_contest": 1.1591, "ball_recovery": 3.569, "challenges_lost": 0.5031, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7303, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.0275, "clearances": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.1002, "big_chances_created": 0.3034, "big_chances_missed": 0.1833, "xgot": 0.182, "offsides": 0.2447, "ball_carries": 14.0596, "total_progression": 63.1666, "progressive_carries": 3.1508, "shots_off_target": 1.0702, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.08, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.08, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "provider_weight": 0.1043, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0829, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "player_id": 1142175, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 184, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0125, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1073, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "creation_factor": 0.8138, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.03, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 64, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "expected_assists": 0.0985, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 74, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1378, "expected_assists": 0.2677, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1036, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0826, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.06, "expected_assists": 0.016, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 726, "combined_rank_score": 350.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 172.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 529.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2855, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kobbie Mainoo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nikola Šipčić", "ranking": 721 }, { "player_name": "Kwak Yun-Ho", "ranking": 722 }, { "player_name": "Ju-seong Uh", "ranking": 723 }, { "player_name": "Beom-kyeong Choi", "ranking": 724 }, { "player_name": "Song-hun Shin", "ranking": 725 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Michael Kayode", "ranking": 727 }, { "player_name": "Sava Petrov", "ranking": 728 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Rovira", "ranking": 729 }, { "player_name": "José Carabalí", "ranking": 730 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Gómez", "ranking": 731 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.761, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 103.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.99, "expected_assists": 0.099, "assists": 0.0717, "assist_rate": 0.0717, "expected_goals": 0.0571, "goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.8162, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 62.9706, "accurate_pass": 57.908, "duels_won": 5.007, "total_long_balls": 2.4887, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7539, "total_own_half_passes": 27.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.0433, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8648, "crosses_total": 0.1414, "crosses_accurate": 0.0257, "touches": 78.3503, "possession_lost": 8.8665, "dispossessed": 1.7761, "duels_lost": 4.8762, "aerial_won": 0.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.7673, "interceptions": 1.4274, "tackles_won": 1.0209, "tackles": 2.0215, "clearances": 0.7888, "total_contest": 2.2032, "won_contest": 1.6344, "challenges_lost": 0.8491, "fouls": 0.9148, "fouls_drawn": 0.9898, "blocks": 0.5641, "big_chances_created": 0.0362, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 26.8192, "total_progression": 112.052, "progressive_carries": 2.3033, "shots_off_target": 0.6145 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8158, "creative_index": 0.4442, "expectedGoals": 0.0395, "expectedAssists": 0.0753, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0553 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9899546504020691, "model_output": 0.99, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": 0.99, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130438 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.0823 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.080442 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055339 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.038505 } ], "others_margin": -0.042321 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09899124503135681, "model_output": 0.099, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.099, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.181569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135646 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.079797 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.062261 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.034099 } ], "others_margin": 0.014642 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07174281030893326, "model_output": 0.0717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 0.0717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.151706 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.102143 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.101055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.099825 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.072979 } ], "others_margin": -0.01813 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05711710825562477, "model_output": 0.0571, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.0571, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.16049 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.118069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058083 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035006 } ], "others_margin": -0.240754 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0576556958258152, "model_output": 0.0577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.0577, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.207902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.138811 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.087858 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063528 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062858 } ], "others_margin": -0.143079 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20168837904930115, "model_output": 0.2017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0446, "total": 0.2017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.177342 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.087674 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074446 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.062772 } ], "others_margin": -0.200227 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.816146731376648, "model_output": 0.8161, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0338 } ], "others": -0.1205, "total": 0.8161, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.061114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.053518 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044711 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033781 } ], "others_margin": -0.120486 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.285526752471924, "model_output": 7.2855, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0276 } ], "others": 0.0736, "total": 7.2855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.155596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106784 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034817 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.033952 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.027646 } ], "others_margin": 0.073676 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0728, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.2046, "total_shots": 0.8279, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1434, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.448, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.928, "fouls_drawn": 1.0041, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0061)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0061, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.966, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8279, "after": 0.8435 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.928, "after": 0.9223 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1004, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0125, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "creation_factor": 0.8138 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0579, "after": 0.0675 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1004, "after": 0.1135 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0125, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "creation_factor": 0.8138, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 726, "fifa_rank": 529.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0125, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "creation_factor": 0.8138, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "scorer_weight": 0.0676, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0399, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1135, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2034, "total_shots": 0.8435, "rating": 7.2855, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8774, "accurate_pass": 58.7419, "duels_won": 5.0791, "total_long_balls": 2.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7792, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4039, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3381, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4785, "possession_lost": 8.9942, "dispossessed": 1.8017, "duels_lost": 4.9464, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "aerial_lost": 0.7783, "interceptions": 1.4499, "tackles_won": 1.04, "tackles": 2.0506, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 2.2349, "won_contest": 1.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.8613, "fouls": 0.9223, "fouls_drawn": 1.0087, "blocks": 0.5722, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0125, "ball_carries": 27.2054, "total_progression": 113.6655, "progressive_carries": 2.3365, "shots_off_target": 0.6233, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1073, "finishing_factor": 1.0019, "creation_factor": 0.8138, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1073, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "provider_weight": 0.0924, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0734, "creation_factor": 0.8138, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Youri Tielemans": { "player_id": 331737, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 177, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1178, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 13 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0613, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 74, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4705, "expected_assists": 0.1058, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.107, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 65, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0181, "expected_assists": 0.2791, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.073, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 76, "combined_rank_score": 84.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 138.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.234, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking": 75 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking": 81 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0121, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 156.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.31, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 31 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1184, "expected_assists": 0.1096, "assists": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.075, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.0621, "shots_on_target": 0.2574, "total_shots": 0.9548, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 55.3844, "accurate_pass": 48.6925, "duels_won": 5.5265, "total_long_balls": 3.6132, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7758, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2148, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.4777, "crosses_total": 1.2551, "crosses_accurate": 0.3592, "touches": 69.8674, "possession_lost": 10.3343, "dispossessed": 0.2944, "duels_lost": 3.6, "aerial_won": 0.8214, "aerial_lost": 1.0348, "interceptions": 1.0591, "tackles_won": 1.6076, "tackles": 2.4341, "clearances": 0.6066, "total_contest": 0.8977, "won_contest": 0.2235, "challenges_lost": 1.1119, "fouls": 0.487, "fouls_drawn": 2.0517, "blocks": 0.3524, "big_chances_created": 0.0721, "big_chances_missed": 0.1034, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 18.2659, "total_progression": 62.2562, "progressive_carries": 1.0866, "shots_off_target": 0.6974 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9731, "creative_index": 0.4936, "expectedGoals": 0.0675, "expectedAssists": 0.1212, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4088 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1183512210845947, "model_output": 1.1184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0836 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0317 } ], "others": 0.0658, "total": 1.1184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124927 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.079389 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.037791 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.032703 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.030598 } ], "others_margin": 0.060624 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10956532508134842, "model_output": 0.1096, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.1096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114086 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.039175 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.03426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030973 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030444 } ], "others_margin": 0.059376 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07498688995838165, "model_output": 0.075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.075, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.11582 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094969 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06797 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.061587 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057049 } ], "others_margin": -0.127185 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06507156789302826, "model_output": 0.0651, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0651, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.116428 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.086805 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08234 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.022975 } ], "others_margin": -0.145725 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.062113456428050995, "model_output": 0.0621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.188629 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.141874 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.11563 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.041706 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039935 } ], "others_margin": -0.089354 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.257357120513916, "model_output": 0.2574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0379 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 0.2574, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.169291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129212 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.079463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.049812 } ], "others_margin": -0.111082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.954758882522583, "model_output": 0.9548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.14 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0779, "total": 0.9548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139954 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.069382 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032804 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.019182 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.018595 } ], "others_margin": -0.077957 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2339582443237305, "model_output": 7.234, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1414 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": 0.0453, "total": 7.234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.141395 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029935 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02763 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022605 } ], "others_margin": 0.045275 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0759, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0629, "goal_rate": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.9663, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2703, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0719, "tackles_won": 1.6271, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4929, "fouls_drawn": 2.0765, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0121, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0102)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0751, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0102, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8924, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.6271, "after": 1.6158 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9663, "after": 0.9775 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0765, "after": 2.0875 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2605, "after": 0.2683 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2703, "after": 1.2627 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0751, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0751, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0659, "after": 0.0768 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1109, "after": 0.1253 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 76, "fifa_rank": 138.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "scorer_weight": 0.0744, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0439, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1319, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 0.9775, "rating": 7.234, "minutes": 80.32, "total_pass": 56.0546, "accurate_pass": 49.2817, "duels_won": 5.5934, "total_long_balls": 3.6569, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 22.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8223, "crosses_total": 1.2627, "crosses_accurate": 0.3635, "touches": 70.7128, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 0.298, "duels_lost": 3.6436, "aerial_won": 0.8313, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 1.0717, "tackles_won": 1.6158, "tackles": 2.4636, "clearances": 0.6139, "total_contest": 0.9086, "won_contest": 0.2262, "challenges_lost": 1.1254, "fouls": 0.4932, "fouls_drawn": 2.0875, "blocks": 0.3567, "big_chances_created": 0.073, "big_chances_missed": 0.1047, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 18.4869, "total_progression": 63.0095, "progressive_carries": 1.0997, "shots_off_target": 0.7058, "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1178, "finishing_factor": 0.9689, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1178, "assist_rate": 0.0751, "provider_weight": 0.1002, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0797, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Luke Shaw": { "player_id": 190839, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 178, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0499, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0202, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0903, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1832, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "expected_assists": 0.2259, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.261, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2215, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 6, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1940, "combined_rank_score": 746.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 852.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7756, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luke Shaw", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kyrian Nwoko", "ranking": 1935 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Gutiérrez", "ranking": 1936 }, { "player_name": "Conor Bradley", "ranking": 1937 }, { "player_name": "Matías Soulé", "ranking": 1938 }, { "player_name": "Georginio Rutter", "ranking": 1939 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Thomas Müller", "ranking": 1941 }, { "player_name": "Manjrekar James", "ranking": 1942 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze", "ranking": 1943 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Shukurov", "ranking": 1944 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Coates", "ranking": 1945 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9996, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 162.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1442, "tackles": 2.0612, "tackles_won": 1.2815, "clearances": 2.6881, "aerial_won": 1.1902, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.8062, "accurate_pass": 35.3685, "duels_won": 4.1461, "total_long_balls": 2.0419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9463, "total_own_half_passes": 19.329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1476, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4773, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2209, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 62.8306, "possession_lost": 9.9268, "dispossessed": 0.4525, "duels_lost": 2.9818, "aerial_lost": 0.6419, "total_contest": 0.5314, "won_contest": 0.3172, "ball_recovery": 1.932, "challenges_lost": 0.7297, "fouls": 1.0002, "fouls_drawn": 0.5322, "blocks": 0.3824, "goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "assists": 0.1091, "assist_rate": 0.1091, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0742, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.9198, "total_progression": 40.5949, "progressive_carries": 0.8451, "key_pass": 0.495, "shots_off_target": 0.4678 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.9383, "aerialWon": 1.5542, "totalClearance_p90": 3.085, "totalTackle": 1.8346, "defensive_actions": 3.9528 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1441720724105835, "model_output": 1.1442, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1172 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0371, "total": 1.1442, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127603 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.038181 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.036372 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033587 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.015709 } ], "others_margin": 0.033036 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.0612151622772217, "model_output": 2.0612, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.201 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0961 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0999 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0754 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0497 } ], "others": 0.1476, "total": 2.0612, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134952 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.058596 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.057496 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.041318 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.026334 } ], "others_margin": 0.074213 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2814549207687378, "model_output": 1.2815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1334 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0824 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0715 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.0672, "total": 1.2815, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145093 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.080104 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.064691 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.031145 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.030667 } ], "others_margin": 0.053924 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.6880898475646973, "model_output": 2.6881, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4568 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3107 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.276 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2502 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2222 } ], "others": -0.1423, "total": 2.6881, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12494 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.083238 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.080265 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078765 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.075587 } ], "others_margin": -0.05161 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1902012825012207, "model_output": 1.1902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1404 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1249 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0749 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0456 } ], "others": -0.1677, "total": 1.1902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097098 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.085889 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.052392 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.044695 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.033016 } ], "others_margin": -0.131902 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5419681668281555, "model_output": 0.542, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.542, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019139 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.012264 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009557 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008514 } ], "others_margin": -0.024945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775613307952881, "model_output": 6.7756, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 6.7756, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011859 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007793 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.00675 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.006376 } ], "others_margin": -0.000478 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1437, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2809, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5418, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.5215, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9998, "fouls_drawn": 0.532, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "assists": 0.1091, "assist_rate": 0.1091, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0742, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5374, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "assists": 0.1082, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9459, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5215, "after": 1.539 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9998, "after": 0.9917 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "assists": 0.1082, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "assists": 0.1082, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0499, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1832 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0837, "after": 0.0946 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0499, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1832, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1940, "fifa_rank": 852.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0499, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0202, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1832, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0202, "goal_rate": 0.059, "scorer_weight": 0.0255, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0151, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 2.0604, "tackles_won": 1.2833, "clearances": 2.687, "aerial_won": 1.1897, "total_shots": 0.5412, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0499, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4676, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0202, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0903, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1832, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0903, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "provider_weight": 0.1119, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.089, "creation_factor": 1.1832, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "player_id": 859999, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 175, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 64, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 83, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 124, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.039, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 67, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1514, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 79, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "expected_assists": 0.0758, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 92, "accurate_pass": 83, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025203, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 110, "accurate_pass": 102, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 431, "combined_rank_score": 262.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 148.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.32, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 377.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1263, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lisandro Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Park Chang-Hwan", "ranking": 432 }, { "player_name": "Venício Tomás", "ranking": 433 }, { "player_name": "Edoardo Colombo", "ranking": 434 }, { "player_name": "Teddy Sharman-Lowe", "ranking": 435 }, { "player_name": "Charles Lokolingoy", "ranking": 436 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0167, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 23 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9203, "tackles": 1.2485, "tackles_won": 0.7867, "clearances": 4.1603, "aerial_won": 1.2781, "total_shots": 0.6343, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 69.7231, "accurate_pass": 63.0674, "duels_won": 3.0674, "total_long_balls": 6.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3016, "total_own_half_passes": 37.7303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4265, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.6409, "crosses_total": 0.0364, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 81.38, "possession_lost": 7.4915, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 2.2135, "aerial_lost": 0.9894, "total_contest": 0.5228, "won_contest": 0.4861, "ball_recovery": 3.3585, "challenges_lost": 0.2912, "fouls": 0.7605, "fouls_drawn": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.9108, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.2492, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 29.5436, "total_progression": 121.5229, "progressive_carries": 1.4631, "key_pass": 0.2301, "shots_off_target": 0.3851 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.8172, "aerialWon": 1.0391, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9623, "totalTackle": 1.2841, "defensive_actions": 2.1136 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9202538132667542, "model_output": 0.9203, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.9203, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124317 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.032078 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015886 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.012641 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011128 } ], "others_margin": -0.017654 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2485129833221436, "model_output": 1.2485, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.17 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0327 } ], "others": -0.1509, "total": 1.2485, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115275 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.031771 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.029302 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.025414 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.023085 } ], "others_margin": -0.114136 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7867439985275269, "model_output": 0.7867, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1079 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0963, "total": 0.7867, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118938 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.040534 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.040158 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.034265 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029165 } ], "others_margin": -0.115371 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.160268306732178, "model_output": 4.1603, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3921 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3527 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3694 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1717 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.1345 } ], "others": -0.0804, "total": 4.1603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108154 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.0882 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.084726 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038483 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.031214 } ], "others_margin": -0.019161 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.278096318244934, "model_output": 1.2781, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2117 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1498 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": -0.0595, "total": 1.2781, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.166892 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120881 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.035918 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030498 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022153 } ], "others_margin": -0.045485 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6342626214027405, "model_output": 0.6343, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 0.6343, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.130095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048588 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026857 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022152 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.021516 } ], "others_margin": -0.046413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.126327037811279, "model_output": 7.1263, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1023 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0745, "total": 7.1263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.102341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.057978 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.046506 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032605 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.027713 } ], "others_margin": 0.07448 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0167, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9356, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7999, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6449, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.037, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7732, "fouls_drawn": 0.2158, "blocks": 0.926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.2534, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0167, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9851, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9356, "after": 0.9284 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7999, "after": 0.7937 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7732, "after": 0.7672 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0322, "after": 0.0375 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 431, "fifa_rank": 377.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.03, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9284, "tackles": 1.2694, "tackles_won": 0.7937, "clearances": 4.2297, "aerial_won": 1.2994, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 7.1263, "minutes": 88.66, "total_pass": 70.8875, "accurate_pass": 64.1206, "duels_won": 3.1186, "total_long_balls": 6.6737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0181, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.1025, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.023, "touches": 82.739, "possession_lost": 7.6166, "dispossessed": 0.138, "duels_lost": 2.2505, "aerial_lost": 1.0059, "total_contest": 0.5315, "won_contest": 0.4942, "ball_recovery": 3.4146, "challenges_lost": 0.2961, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 0.2141, "blocks": 0.926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.2514, "big_chances_created": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 30.037, "total_progression": 123.5523, "progressive_carries": 1.4875, "key_pass": 0.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.3915, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.039, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0318, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0253, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Harry Maguire": { "player_id": 149380, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 194, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 127, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0549, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.827, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1209, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0132, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1218, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.4045, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1513, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 786, "combined_rank_score": 379.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 368.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9393, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Maguire", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samandar Shukurullaev", "ranking": 781 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-un Hong", "ranking": 782 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Khozhimirzaev", "ranking": 783 }, { "player_name": "Ollie Watkins", "ranking": 784 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 785 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ho-jun Son", "ranking": 787 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 }, { "player_name": "Julian Andres Bonilla Tovar", "ranking": 790 }, { "player_name": "Murillo", "ranking": 791 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1709, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7684, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1529, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.506, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9966, "fouls_drawn": 0.8656, "blocks": 0.4288, "goals": 0.0045, "goal_rate": 0.0045, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2929, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.544, "aerialWon": 2.9814, "totalClearance_p90": 4.6567, "totalTackle": 1.0015, "defensive_actions": 2.6144 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.170896291732788, "model_output": 1.1709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1075 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0866 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0418, "total": 1.1709, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117673 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.085663 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.029808 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023579 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014567 } ], "others_margin": 0.036287 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2576241493225098, "model_output": 1.2576, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1651 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1099 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0869, "total": 1.2576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112147 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.073232 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.032694 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.021655 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.018901 } ], "others_margin": -0.066828 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7683579921722412, "model_output": 0.7684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0944 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0296 } ], "others": -0.0916, "total": 0.7684, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104808 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.056482 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.03841 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.038139 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.035055 } ], "others_margin": -0.112703 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.807581424713135, "model_output": 4.8076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.474 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2262 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2169 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1509 } ], "others": -0.1586, "total": 4.8076, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.127176 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114751 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.050433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.046093 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.030847 } ], "others_margin": -0.032464 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.4989209175109863, "model_output": 2.4989, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5934 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2372 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1567 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0757 } ], "others": 0.2941, "total": 2.4989, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.358265 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113638 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.068563 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.036218 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.03376 } ], "others_margin": 0.125237 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1528527736663818, "model_output": 1.1529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4582 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0686, "total": 1.1529, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.458226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060696 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.041209 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.027335 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022427 } ], "others_margin": 0.068459 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.939256191253662, "model_output": 6.9393, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0349, "total": 6.9393, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.052543 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022291 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.018643 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.016091 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.010172 } ], "others_margin": 0.034814 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1709, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7684, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1529, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.506, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9966, "fouls_drawn": 0.8656, "blocks": 0.4288, "goals": 0.0045, "goal_rate": 0.0045, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2929, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goals": 0.0044, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.991, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7684, "after": 0.7586 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.506, "after": 0.5122 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goals": 0.0044, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goals": 0.0044, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.827 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0555, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.05, "after": 0.0565 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.827, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 786, "fifa_rank": 368.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.827, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "scorer_weight": 0.0518, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0306, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1749, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7586, "clearances": 4.8076, "aerial_won": 2.4989, "total_shots": 1.1572, "rating": 6.9393, "minutes": 89.19, "total_pass": 54.2928, "accurate_pass": 48.076, "duels_won": 5.1699, "total_long_balls": 5.3221, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6038, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0594, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0165, "crosses_total": 0.5122, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 67.0242, "possession_lost": 6.9908, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.5658, "aerial_lost": 0.9037, "total_contest": 0.3131, "won_contest": 0.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.8854, "challenges_lost": 0.6489, "fouls": 0.9965, "fouls_drawn": 0.8609, "blocks": 0.4288, "goal_rate": 0.0044, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2955, "big_chances_created": 0.1016, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 23.5734, "total_progression": 127.2378, "progressive_carries": 1.9676, "key_pass": 0.3776, "shots_off_target": 0.86, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0549, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.827, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0327, "provider_weight": 0.0467, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0371, "creation_factor": 0.827, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Diogo Dalot": { "player_id": 843200, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 184, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0717, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0101, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.152, "expected_assists": 0.1158, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3016, "expected_assists": 0.1528, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2123, "combined_rank_score": 802.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 510.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8529, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1095.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7295, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Ortiz", "ranking": 2118 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bracco", "ranking": 2119 }, { "player_name": "Park Su-been", "ranking": 2120 }, { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking": 2124 }, { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking": 2126 }, { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.759, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 84.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 4.29, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.06 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.06, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1472, "tackles": 1.6896, "tackles_won": 1.1162, "clearances": 2.3208, "aerial_won": 1.0745, "total_shots": 0.788, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.6128, "accurate_pass": 34.0315, "duels_won": 4.1754, "total_long_balls": 2.5755, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9884, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2491, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7824, "crosses_total": 1.8306, "crosses_accurate": 0.4886, "touches": 58.457, "possession_lost": 9.9542, "dispossessed": 0.2294, "duels_lost": 3.169, "aerial_lost": 0.4398, "total_contest": 1.3884, "won_contest": 0.596, "ball_recovery": 5.1139, "challenges_lost": 0.5897, "fouls": 1.1177, "fouls_drawn": 0.5089, "blocks": 0.2869, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0228, "expected_goals": 0.069, "expected_assists": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.1825, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 11.6669, "total_progression": 53.083, "progressive_carries": 1.5621, "key_pass": 1.2355, "shots_off_target": 0.6055 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9181, "aerialWon": 1.2931, "totalClearance_p90": 3.0721, "totalTackle": 1.4564, "defensive_actions": 2.3455 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.147230863571167, "model_output": 1.1472, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1183 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0355 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 1.1472, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128765 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.056521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.041401 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035714 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.031227 } ], "others_margin": -0.00647 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6895500421524048, "model_output": 1.6896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1923 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0994 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0208, "total": 1.6895, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129444 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.060888 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02898 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.020175 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.017471 } ], "others_margin": 0.012409 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.1162209510803223, "model_output": 1.1162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1196 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0235 } ], "others": 0.0448, "total": 1.1162, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131093 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.054308 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.04251 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.023377 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.022141 } ], "others_margin": 0.040904 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.320783853530884, "model_output": 2.3208, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5893 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3685 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2876 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2155 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1634 } ], "others": -0.2246, "total": 2.3208, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.18835 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121876 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.076539 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.062201 } ], "others_margin": -0.092423 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0744653940200806, "model_output": 1.0745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1352 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1138 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0978 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0722 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.062 } ], "others": -0.0922, "total": 1.0745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093634 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.078231 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.072513 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.05711 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.051788 } ], "others_margin": -0.082302 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7879563570022583, "model_output": 0.788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.202 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0269, "total": 0.788, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.202004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056471 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031832 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020306 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.01657 } ], "others_margin": 0.026885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729525566101074, "model_output": 6.7295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 6.7295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020877 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015512 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015228 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011659 } ], "others_margin": -0.012996 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1548, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1236, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.7932, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8427, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1251, "fouls_drawn": 0.5123, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.023, "assist_rate": 0.023, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1837, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9731, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8427, "after": 1.8581 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7932, "after": 0.8079 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.081 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.0744 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2123, "fifa_rank": 1095.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.003, "scorer_weight": 0.0648, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0383, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1592, "tackles": 1.7007, "tackles_won": 1.1234, "clearances": 2.3361, "aerial_won": 1.0816, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8742, "accurate_pass": 34.2561, "duels_won": 4.203, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9949, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9128, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8998, "crosses_total": 1.8581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4918, "touches": 58.8428, "possession_lost": 10.0199, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3976, "won_contest": 0.5999, "ball_recovery": 5.1477, "challenges_lost": 0.5936, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5101, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.1874, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 11.7439, "total_progression": 53.4333, "progressive_carries": 1.5724, "key_pass": 1.2437, "shots_off_target": 0.6095, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0717, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0717, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "provider_weight": 0.0595, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0473, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Karl Darlow": { "player_id": 123689, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 190, "market_value": 210000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0065, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1882, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.465, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.2661 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.6314 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.0333 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6349 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0244 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2952 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 27, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1875 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "goals_prevented": -0.3532 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3070, "combined_rank_score": 1038.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 307.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0364, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1769.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9087, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Axel Disasi", "ranking": 3065 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 3067 }, { "player_name": "Amine Adli", "ranking": 3068 }, { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking": 3071 }, { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 22, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 22, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9962, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (22 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7204, "goals_prevented": -0.0424, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 38.412, "accurate_pass": 22.4541, "total_long_balls": 22.3493, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1124, "touches": 48.4709, "clearances": 1.296, "ball_recovery": 8.7715, "high_claims": 0.7463, "punches": 1.2256, "aerial_won": 0.3092, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 2.4467, "possession_lost": 16.0559, "duels_won": 0.5399, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0115, "won_contest": 0.0115, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.275, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4457 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1543, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1312, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1115, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0948, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 7.1124, "save_contribution": 3.5647, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9006, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.4457, "passValueNormalized": 0.0999, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 19.2839 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.720447063446045, "model_output": 2.7204, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2093 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0612, "total": 2.7204, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07384 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.010005 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.009166 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007779 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.006719 } ], "others_margin": -0.022238 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.04240609332919121, "model_output": -0.0424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": -0.0424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.015192 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.013751 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.009726 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009138 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.009047 } ], "others_margin": -0.004394 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90874719619751, "model_output": 6.9087, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0576, "total": 6.9087, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011375 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.010813 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009428 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.009189 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.008667 } ], "others_margin": -0.057562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7101, "goals_prevented": -0.0422, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 38.266, "accurate_pass": 22.3688, "total_long_balls": 22.2644, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0854, "touches": 48.2867, "clearances": 1.2911, "ball_recovery": 8.7382, "high_claims": 0.7435, "punches": 1.2209, "aerial_won": 0.308, "sweeper_actions": 0.7687, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7687, "saves_inside_box": 2.4374, "possession_lost": 15.9949, "duels_won": 0.5378, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0115, "won_contest": 0.0115, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.274, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3794 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 210000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4177, "goals_prevented": -0.0065, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.8973, "accurate_pass": 3.4473, "total_long_balls": 3.4312, "accurate_long_balls": 1.092, "touches": 7.4416, "clearances": 0.199, "ball_recovery": 1.3467, "high_claims": 0.1146, "punches": 0.1882, "aerial_won": 0.0475, "sweeper_actions": 0.1185, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1185, "saves_inside_box": 0.3756, "possession_lost": 2.465, "duels_won": 0.0829, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6784, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4177, "goals_prevented": -0.0065, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.8973, "accurate_pass": 3.4473, "total_long_balls": 3.4312, "accurate_long_balls": 1.092, "touches": 7.4416, "clearances": 0.199, "ball_recovery": 1.3467, "high_claims": 0.1146, "punches": 0.1882, "aerial_won": 0.0475, "sweeper_actions": 0.1185, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1185, "saves_inside_box": 0.3756, "possession_lost": 2.465, "duels_won": 0.0829, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6784, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4177, "goals_prevented": -0.0065, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.8973, "accurate_pass": 3.4473, "total_long_balls": 3.4312, "accurate_long_balls": 1.092, "touches": 7.4416, "clearances": 0.199, "ball_recovery": 1.3467, "high_claims": 0.1146, "punches": 0.1882, "aerial_won": 0.0475, "sweeper_actions": 0.1185, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1185, "saves_inside_box": 0.3756, "possession_lost": 2.465, "duels_won": 0.0829, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6784, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4177, "goals_prevented": -0.0065, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.8973, "accurate_pass": 3.4473, "total_long_balls": 3.4312, "accurate_long_balls": 1.092, "touches": 7.4416, "clearances": 0.199, "ball_recovery": 1.3467, "high_claims": 0.1146, "punches": 0.1882, "aerial_won": 0.0475, "sweeper_actions": 0.1185, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1185, "saves_inside_box": 0.3756, "possession_lost": 2.465, "duels_won": 0.0829, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6784, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3070, "fifa_rank": 1769.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Leny Yoro": { "player_id": 1153315, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 190, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1966, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023983, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2589, "expected_assists": 0.1304, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2687, "combined_rank_score": 939.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 757.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6567, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6666, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leny Yoro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Barco", "ranking": 2683 }, { "player_name": "Denis Bouanga", "ranking": 2684 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 2685 }, { "player_name": "Evander", "ranking": 2686 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 2688 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Espejo", "ranking": 2689 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Zannoni", "ranking": 2690 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrobjon Parmonkulov", "ranking": 2691 }, { "player_name": "Hislat Khalilov", "ranking": 2692 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.632, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0114, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (35 historical appearances) to 16.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4928, "tackles": 0.8103, "tackles_won": 0.3959, "clearances": 1.0226, "aerial_won": 0.4093, "total_shots": 0.1973, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.847, "accurate_pass": 7.7602, "duels_won": 0.923, "total_long_balls": 0.6223, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2918, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8441, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2952, "possession_lost": 1.5477, "dispossessed": 0.1816, "duels_lost": 0.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.2844, "total_contest": 0.1838, "won_contest": 0.0319, "ball_recovery": 0.4756, "challenges_lost": 0.0606, "fouls": 0.2867, "fouls_drawn": 0.0319, "blocks": 0.3006, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6204, "total_progression": 33.4243, "progressive_carries": 0.8567, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1973 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2863, "aerialWon": 0.7817, "totalClearance_p90": 5.8791, "totalTackle": 1.1955, "defensive_actions": 2.9098 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.49279531836509705, "model_output": 0.4928, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4976 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0451, "total": 0.4928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862861 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.139437 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.063798 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.034463 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.028924 } ], "others_margin": 0.096233 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8103185892105103, "model_output": 0.8103, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.8103, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.715654 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.066851 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042109 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035346 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.031322 } ], "others_margin": -0.000688 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39589646458625793, "model_output": 0.3959, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4657 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.3959, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.787901 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038287 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.037625 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.037279 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.033588 } ], "others_margin": 0.015899 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0225539207458496, "model_output": 1.0226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1617 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1995 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1512 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": 0.105, "total": 1.0226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.993556 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.170783 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.152093 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.041739 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038786 } ], "others_margin": 0.108332 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.40925613045692444, "model_output": 0.4093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1385 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.03 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 0.4093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.930483 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.294305 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.086457 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.077973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.077711 } ], "others_margin": 0.097434 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19731293618679047, "model_output": 0.1973, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1817 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0385, "total": 0.1973, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.181667 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087681 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036624 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014742 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008768 } ], "others_margin": -0.03849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666565895080566, "model_output": 6.6666, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 6.6666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035657 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015828 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015435 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011648 } ], "others_margin": -0.02432 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4984, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1996, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.29, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1994, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1791, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 16.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.12, "projection_minutes": 16.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0, "appearance_probability": 0.632 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.632 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2687, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.003, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0018, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "appearance_weight": 0.632, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0035, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0028, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "appearance_weight": 0.632, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ayden Heaven": { "player_id": 1445799, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 189, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1212, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 61, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023978, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15238290, "match_date": "2026-02-23", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025079, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025037, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2698, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3363, "combined_rank_score": 1313.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 442.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9067, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 2184.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8179, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayden Heaven", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aron Dønnum", "ranking": 3364 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 3365 }, { "player_name": "Liam Scales", "ranking": 3366 }, { "player_name": "Matías Vecino", "ranking": 3367 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Estève", "ranking": 3368 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 19, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 19, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.738792805130341, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.241, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0142, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (19 historical appearances) to 14.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3924, "tackles": 0.662, "tackles_won": 0.2944, "clearances": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.4652, "total_shots": 0.1894, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 9.76, "total_pass": 2.9246, "accurate_pass": 2.8266, "duels_won": 0.6228, "total_long_balls": 0.3554, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3554, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9563, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9563, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.9683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8703, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.3037, "possession_lost": 0.098, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3407, "aerial_lost": 0.1812, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6046, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1595, "fouls_drawn": 0.2208, "blocks": 0.098, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.098, "assist_rate": 0.098, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.1768, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.098, "shots_off_target": 0.1894 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1572, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1336, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1136, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0965, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.082, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0697, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0593, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-23", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0504, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0428, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0364, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 19.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.9977, "aerialWon": 0.7007, "totalClearance_p90": 7.0508, "totalTackle": 1.3112, "defensive_actions": 1.3302 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3924259841442108, "model_output": 0.3924, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4793 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 0.3924, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.813613 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.120909 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.11248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060948 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.044966 } ], "others_margin": -0.069472 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6620301008224487, "model_output": 0.662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.739 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 0.662, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.757397 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.041002 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039736 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036634 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.020848 } ], "others_margin": -0.002486 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.29437392950057983, "model_output": 0.2944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0516, "total": 0.2944, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.803358 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054204 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050428 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.050078 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045869 } ], "others_margin": -0.161495 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.264289379119873, "model_output": 1.2643, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1488 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1793 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0992 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0659 } ], "others": 0.0418, "total": 1.2643, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.98342 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.176138 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.154022 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.08227 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.055383 } ], "others_margin": 0.033577 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4652041792869568, "model_output": 0.4652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8327 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1393 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0295, "total": 0.4652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.927881 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.295486 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.098002 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074843 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049155 } ], "others_margin": 0.06564 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18943576514720917, "model_output": 0.1894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 0.1894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016447 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012428 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008688 } ], "others_margin": -0.013141 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8178606033325195, "model_output": 6.8179, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 6.8179, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026093 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012003 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009625 } ], "others_margin": 0.005802 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.398, "tackles": 0.6714, "tackles_won": 0.2986, "clearances": 1.2822, "aerial_won": 0.4718, "total_shots": 0.1921, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 9.76, "total_pass": 2.9661, "accurate_pass": 2.8667, "duels_won": 0.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.3604, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3604, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8827, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.3648, "possession_lost": 0.0994, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3455, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1618, "fouls_drawn": 0.2239, "blocks": 0.0994, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0994, "assist_rate": 0.0994, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0994, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.1793, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0994, "shots_off_target": 0.1921 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3944, "tackles": 0.6714, "tackles_won": 0.2959, "clearances": 1.2822, "aerial_won": 0.4718, "total_shots": 0.1923, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 9.76, "total_pass": 2.9661, "accurate_pass": 2.8667, "duels_won": 0.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.3604, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3604, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8827, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.3648, "possession_lost": 0.0994, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3455, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1613, "fouls_drawn": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.0994, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0985, "assist_rate": 0.0985, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0994, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.1793, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0994, "shots_off_target": 0.1921 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 19, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1084, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 9.8 to 14.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5916, "tackles": 1.0071, "tackles_won": 0.4438, "clearances": 1.9233, "aerial_won": 0.7077, "total_shots": 0.2884, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 4.4491, "accurate_pass": 4.3, "duels_won": 0.9474, "total_long_balls": 0.5406, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5406, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5472, "possession_lost": 0.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5182, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9198, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2419, "fouls_drawn": 0.3357, "blocks": 0.1491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2689, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1491, "shots_off_target": 0.2882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.74, "projection_minutes": 9.76, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.241 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5916, "tackles": 1.0071, "tackles_won": 0.4438, "clearances": 1.9233, "aerial_won": 0.7077, "total_shots": 0.2884, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 4.4491, "accurate_pass": 4.3, "duels_won": 0.9474, "total_long_balls": 0.5406, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5406, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5472, "possession_lost": 0.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5182, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9198, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2419, "fouls_drawn": 0.3357, "blocks": 0.1491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2689, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1491, "shots_off_target": 0.2882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5916, "tackles": 1.0071, "tackles_won": 0.4438, "clearances": 1.9233, "aerial_won": 0.7077, "total_shots": 0.2884, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 4.4491, "accurate_pass": 4.3, "duels_won": 0.9474, "total_long_balls": 0.5406, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5406, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5472, "possession_lost": 0.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5182, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9198, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2419, "fouls_drawn": 0.3357, "blocks": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2689, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1491, "shots_off_target": 0.2882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.241, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5916, "tackles": 1.0071, "tackles_won": 0.4438, "clearances": 1.9233, "aerial_won": 0.7077, "total_shots": 0.2884, "rating": 6.8179, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 4.4491, "accurate_pass": 4.3, "duels_won": 0.9474, "total_long_balls": 0.5406, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5406, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9762, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5472, "possession_lost": 0.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5182, "aerial_lost": 0.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9198, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2419, "fouls_drawn": 0.3357, "blocks": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2689, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1491, "shots_off_target": 0.2882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3363, "fifa_rank": 2184.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Carlos Baleba": { "player_id": 1199043, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 179, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.085, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3317, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2006, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023972, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1907, "combined_rank_score": 737.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 775.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.64, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 700.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7298, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking": 1902 }, { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 }, { "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking": 1906 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "ranking": 1908 }, { "player_name": "Ramy Najjarine", "ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64127853832616, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5746035699239163, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0143, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (32 historical appearances) to 23.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5003, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0341, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.691, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 11.2532, "accurate_pass": 9.792, "duels_won": 2.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.4621, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0194, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2109, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6821, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5811, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6497, "possession_lost": 2.4265, "dispossessed": 0.1659, "duels_lost": 1.2397, "aerial_won": 0.4229, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9458, "tackles_won": 0.2396, "tackles": 1.0094, "clearances": 0.5381, "total_contest": 0.5803, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.1825, "fouls": 0.3642, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1471, "total_progression": 25.1304, "progressive_carries": 0.5942, "shots_off_target": 0.5824 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9803, "creative_index": 0.3596, "expectedGoals": 0.0409, "expectedAssists": 0.0379, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1501 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5002878904342651, "model_output": 0.5003, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3521 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 0.5003, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501346 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.065087 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.05502 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.054613 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044977 } ], "others_margin": 0.051707 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02548789046704769, "model_output": 0.0255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.0255, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597164 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.195467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.122411 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.053433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.046483 } ], "others_margin": -0.196994 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03412292152643204, "model_output": 0.0341, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.0341, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245198 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.194441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085684 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.082297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078594 } ], "others_margin": -0.252497 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03574296459555626, "model_output": 0.0357, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0011 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.0357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499233 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.120802 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.105735 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.093628 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.027555 } ], "others_margin": -0.123124 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.038546714931726456, "model_output": 0.0385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.0385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409477 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.123588 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096052 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065779 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063564 } ], "others_margin": -0.172478 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.10862880945205688, "model_output": 0.1086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1526 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 0.1086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.632102 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.111752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.110751 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05938 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048196 } ], "others_margin": -0.254711 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6910434365272522, "model_output": 0.691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0288, "total": 0.691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324264 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.04898 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.044075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036424 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032262 } ], "others_margin": 0.02884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729770183563232, "model_output": 6.7298, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.7298, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0922 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021941 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012705 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009756 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006081 } ], "others_margin": -0.006014 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5074, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "assists": 0.0346, "assist_rate": 0.0346, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1102, "total_shots": 0.7009, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 11.4141, "accurate_pass": 9.932, "duels_won": 2.2975, "total_long_balls": 1.483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.034, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2711, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9021, "possession_lost": 2.4612, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4289, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9593, "tackles_won": 0.243, "tackles": 1.0238, "clearances": 0.5458, "total_contest": 0.5886, "won_contest": 0.054, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.3694, "fouls_drawn": 0.7907, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.198, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2207, "total_progression": 25.4898, "progressive_carries": 0.6027, "shots_off_target": 0.5907 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.64, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1874, "appearance_probability": 0.575 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.575 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0431, "after": 0.0289 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0308, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1907, "fifa_rank": 700.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "scorer_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "appearance_weight": 0.575, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "provider_weight": 0.0226, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0179, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "appearance_weight": 0.575, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Andrey Santos": { "player_id": 1105779, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "goal_rate": 0.031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.6732, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2324, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2226, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0534, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023971, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1467, "combined_rank_score": 606.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 701.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7508, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Andrey Santos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bekhruz Shaydulov", "ranking": 1462 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Palma", "ranking": 1463 }, { "player_name": "Ahmadullo Muqimjonov", "ranking": 1464 }, { "player_name": "Kirill Pechenin", "ranking": 1465 }, { "player_name": "Paulinho", "ranking": 1466 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miloš Kerkez", "ranking": 1468 }, { "player_name": "Misael Llantén", "ranking": 1469 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Graciani", "ranking": 1470 }, { "player_name": "Hyeong-won Kim", "ranking": 1471 }, { "player_name": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "ranking": 1472 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.759, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.529, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0127, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.06 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (30 historical appearances) to 16.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 11.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2553, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0275, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.04, "shots_on_target": 0.0734, "total_shots": 0.2733, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 16.4407, "accurate_pass": 14.8166, "duels_won": 1.5919, "total_long_balls": 0.5165, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4342, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3824, "crosses_total": 0.0167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.3031, "possession_lost": 2.1485, "dispossessed": 0.0842, "duels_lost": 1.3236, "aerial_won": 0.2981, "aerial_lost": 0.3982, "interceptions": 0.1497, "tackles_won": 0.1756, "tackles": 0.9482, "clearances": 0.9272, "total_contest": 0.2837, "won_contest": 0.0842, "challenges_lost": 0.3444, "fouls": 0.3414, "fouls_drawn": 0.2615, "blocks": 0.0611, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0142, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 5.5216, "total_progression": 14.0431, "progressive_carries": 0.2929, "shots_off_target": 0.1999 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.253, "creative_index": 0.0683, "expectedGoals": 0.039, "expectedAssists": 0.0441, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0942 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2553029954433441, "model_output": 0.2553, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4142 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0873, "total": 0.2553, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623283 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.114952 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.097859 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.072263 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.049632 } ], "others_margin": -0.294125 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.020850541070103645, "model_output": 0.0209, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0209, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598922 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.211029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124112 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.072176 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.069342 } ], "others_margin": -0.337195 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.02750622294843197, "model_output": 0.0275, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.0275, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.28146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.197718 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.153152 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098265 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.073308 } ], "others_margin": -0.350368 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.027632489800453186, "model_output": 0.0276, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.0276, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.538995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232442 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.135846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.098299 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.051471 } ], "others_margin": -0.170383 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04002910479903221, "model_output": 0.04, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.04, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.140808 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.073686 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.071459 } ], "others_margin": -0.066677 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07343344390392303, "model_output": 0.0734, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1507 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.0734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.621221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.321366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.188939 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053026 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.046685 } ], "others_margin": -0.258451 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27328482270240784, "model_output": 0.2733, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1874 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.1159, "total": 0.2733, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.332326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.187432 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044114 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022334 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.020169 } ], "others_margin": -0.115874 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750826358795166, "model_output": 6.7508, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0089, "total": 6.7508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105729 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025488 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01578 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012753 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010162 } ], "others_margin": -0.0088 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2585, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "total_shots": 0.2768, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 16.6495, "accurate_pass": 15.0048, "duels_won": 1.6121, "total_long_balls": 0.5231, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2605, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5159, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4889, "crosses_total": 0.0169, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5736, "possession_lost": 2.1758, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.3404, "aerial_won": 0.3019, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.1516, "tackles_won": 0.1778, "tackles": 0.9602, "clearances": 0.939, "total_contest": 0.2873, "won_contest": 0.0853, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.3457, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.0619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0144, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 5.5917, "total_progression": 14.2214, "progressive_carries": 0.2966, "shots_off_target": 0.2024 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0056)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2585, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0277, "assist_rate": 0.0277, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.074, "total_shots": 0.2753, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 16.6495, "accurate_pass": 15.0048, "duels_won": 1.6121, "total_long_balls": 0.5231, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2605, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5159, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4889, "crosses_total": 0.0168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5736, "possession_lost": 2.1758, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.3404, "aerial_won": 0.3019, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.1508, "tackles_won": 0.1783, "tackles": 0.9602, "clearances": 0.939, "total_contest": 0.2873, "won_contest": 0.0853, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.3467, "fouls_drawn": 0.2663, "blocks": 0.0619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0144, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 5.5917, "total_progression": 14.2214, "progressive_carries": 0.2966, "shots_off_target": 0.2024 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0056, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2396, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 16.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0213, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.031, "shots_on_target": 0.0569, "total_shots": 0.2126, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.8037, "accurate_pass": 11.5389, "duels_won": 1.2397, "total_long_balls": 0.4023, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2003, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0108, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5281, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5905, "possession_lost": 1.6732, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.1371, "tackles": 0.7384, "clearances": 0.7221, "total_contest": 0.2209, "won_contest": 0.0656, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.2666, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0476, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.3001, "total_progression": 10.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.2281, "shots_off_target": 0.1556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.58, "projection_minutes": 21.56, "minutes_scale": 0.769, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0213, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.031, "shots_on_target": 0.0569, "total_shots": 0.2126, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.8037, "accurate_pass": 11.5389, "duels_won": 1.2397, "total_long_balls": 0.4023, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2003, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0108, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5281, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5905, "possession_lost": 1.6732, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.1371, "tackles": 0.7384, "clearances": 0.7221, "total_contest": 0.2209, "won_contest": 0.0656, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.2666, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0476, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.3001, "total_progression": 10.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.2281, "shots_off_target": 0.1556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "goal_rate": 0.031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0569, "total_shots": 0.2126, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.8037, "accurate_pass": 11.5389, "duels_won": 1.2397, "total_long_balls": 0.4023, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2003, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0108, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5281, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5905, "possession_lost": 1.6732, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.1371, "tackles": 0.7384, "clearances": 0.7221, "total_contest": 0.2209, "won_contest": 0.0656, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.2666, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0476, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.3001, "total_progression": 10.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.2281, "shots_off_target": 0.1556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.529, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "goal_rate": 0.031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0569, "total_shots": 0.2126, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.8037, "accurate_pass": 11.5389, "duels_won": 1.2397, "total_long_balls": 0.4023, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2003, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0108, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5281, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5905, "possession_lost": 1.6732, "dispossessed": 0.0853, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.4033, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.1371, "tackles": 0.7384, "clearances": 0.7221, "total_contest": 0.2209, "won_contest": 0.0656, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.2666, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0476, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.3001, "total_progression": 10.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.2281, "shots_off_target": 0.1556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1467, "fifa_rank": 701.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Benjamin Šeško": { "player_id": 986397, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 195, "market_value": 78000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.287, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2471, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4365, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3139, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3149, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1116, "combined_rank_score": 499.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 613.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.775, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6323, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benjamin Šeško", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arihiro Sentoku", "ranking": 1111 }, { "player_name": "Leonel González", "ranking": 1112 }, { "player_name": "Veldin Hodža", "ranking": 1113 }, { "player_name": "Breno Bidon", "ranking": 1114 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jeong Hyun", "ranking": 1117 }, { "player_name": "Jaba Jigauri", "ranking": 1118 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Opeyemi Teidi", "ranking": 1119 }, { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 1120 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 1121 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.755, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (34 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "shots_on_target": 0.4092, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3055, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 4.946, "accurate_pass": 3.7629, "duels_won": 0.8007, "total_long_balls": 0.0259, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0259, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9398, "crosses_total": 0.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0998, "possession_lost": 2.3566, "dispossessed": 0.2946, "duels_lost": 2.1612, "aerial_lost": 1.2478, "total_contest": 0.4912, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.1311, "challenges_lost": 0.0228, "fouls": 0.3444, "fouls_drawn": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1595, "blocks": 0.0194, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1536, "xgot": 0.1713, "offsides": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 2.3632, "total_progression": 8.9014, "progressive_carries": 0.5264, "shots_off_target": 0.5812 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.8711, "expectedGoals": 0.2691, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.3735, "accuratePass": 5.6189, "totalShots": 1.5366 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12007563561201096, "model_output": 0.1201, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 0.1201, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.625872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.140822 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044331 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.039046 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.02654 } ], "others_margin": -0.033922 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14207115769386292, "model_output": 0.1421, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0911 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0045, "total": 0.1421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.594597 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.146859 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.054467 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.042375 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040538 } ], "others_margin": 0.032797 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40920290350914, "model_output": 0.4092, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2284 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0401, "total": 0.4092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049014 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.048227 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.045077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034905 } ], "others_margin": 0.102973 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9904407858848572, "model_output": 0.9904, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0932 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0335 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.9904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568443 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093239 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043029 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.042886 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.033549 } ], "others_margin": -0.027661 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.015224253758788109, "model_output": 0.0152, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.0152, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.216865 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.184861 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.105129 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.081294 } ], "others_margin": -0.450058 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30554136633872986, "model_output": 0.3055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2527 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.3055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470342 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080838 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077958 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046015 } ], "others_margin": -0.05603 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.632325649261475, "model_output": 6.6323, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 6.6323, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016304 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.012328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011594 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01111 } ], "others_margin": -0.046066 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1218, "goals": 0.1441, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "shots_on_target": 0.4151, "total_shots": 1.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5896 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1218, "goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1438, "shots_on_target": 0.4142, "total_shots": 1.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5896 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goals": 0.1592, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goals": 0.1592, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1348, "after": 0.1186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "scorer_weight": 0.1343, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0793, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0116, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0092, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marcus Rashford": { "player_id": 814590, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 188, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1123, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.301, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2491, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.553, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3971, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1157, "expected_assists": 0.0809, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2566, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.244, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2901, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.2921, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 471, "combined_rank_score": 281.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 191.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2182, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 371.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8801, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcus Rashford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gjoko Zajkov", "ranking": 466 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Terrats", "ranking": 467 }, { "player_name": "Igor Formiga", "ranking": 468 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Caceres", "ranking": 469 }, { "player_name": "James Garner", "ranking": 470 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "João Cancelo", "ranking": 472 }, { "player_name": "Oh-kyu Kim", "ranking": 473 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Lopez", "ranking": 474 }, { "player_name": "Eberechi Eze", "ranking": 475 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Ekitiké", "ranking": 476 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.553, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0092, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (38 historical appearances) to 36.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.2758, "total_shots": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "key_pass": 0.7874, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 11.6621, "accurate_pass": 9.9767, "duels_won": 1.1313, "total_long_balls": 0.7356, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3971, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.803, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3742, "crosses_total": 1.8038, "crosses_accurate": 0.4901, "touches": 18.3914, "possession_lost": 4.8229, "dispossessed": 0.2592, "duels_lost": 1.5845, "aerial_lost": 0.3925, "total_contest": 0.9165, "won_contest": 0.427, "ball_recovery": 0.5304, "challenges_lost": 0.1421, "fouls": 0.3012, "fouls_drawn": 0.593, "assists": 0.1171, "assist_rate": 0.1171, "interceptions": 0.1171, "tackles_won": 0.0882, "tackles": 0.0882, "clearances": 0.1198, "blocks": 0.1438, "big_chances_created": 0.1171, "big_chances_missed": 0.1202, "xgot": 0.1646, "offsides": 0.2011, "ball_carries": 5.577, "total_progression": 23.9593, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.757 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 17.2507, "expectedGoals": 0.1581, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 14.0729, "accuratePass": 19.2601, "totalShots": 2.0041 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07423065602779388, "model_output": 0.0742, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604419 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169077 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.055036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050491 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.042304 } ], "others_margin": -0.057333 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06416920572519302, "model_output": 0.0642, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0967 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0642, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.645415 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.140449 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.121869 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.056586 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.051566 } ], "others_margin": -0.137556 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2757861912250519, "model_output": 0.2758, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.2758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.590793 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.065144 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.051396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050805 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044009 } ], "others_margin": 0.00428 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0328141450881958, "model_output": 1.0328, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5704 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1075 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0441 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 1.0328, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10749 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.067122 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059764 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.044108 } ], "others_margin": -0.049096 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06439509987831116, "model_output": 0.0644, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0087, "total": 0.0644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.441983 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.20642 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.081562 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.073645 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.06251 } ], "others_margin": 0.14566 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7873674631118774, "model_output": 0.7874, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2768 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0752 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.082 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0647 } ], "others": 0.096, "total": 0.7874, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529381 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.168731 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.148487 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.1402 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.098272 } ], "others_margin": 0.130093 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.880070686340332, "model_output": 6.8801, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0213 } ], "others": 0.0765, "total": 6.8801, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08577 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.046525 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031874 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022676 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021302 } ], "others_margin": 0.076462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0749, "goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.0648, "shots_on_target": 0.2783, "total_shots": 1.0423, "expected_assists": 0.065, "key_pass": 0.7946, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 11.7694, "accurate_pass": 10.0685, "duels_won": 1.1417, "total_long_balls": 0.7424, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4008, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.442, "crosses_total": 1.8204, "crosses_accurate": 0.4946, "touches": 18.5606, "possession_lost": 4.8673, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 0.9249, "won_contest": 0.4309, "ball_recovery": 0.5353, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.5985, "assists": 0.1182, "assist_rate": 0.1182, "interceptions": 0.1182, "tackles_won": 0.089, "tackles": 0.089, "clearances": 0.1209, "blocks": 0.1451, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.1213, "xgot": 0.1661, "offsides": 0.203, "ball_carries": 5.6283, "total_progression": 24.1797, "progressive_carries": 1.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.764 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0071)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0749, "goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 1.0404, "expected_assists": 0.065, "key_pass": 0.7946, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 11.7694, "accurate_pass": 10.0685, "duels_won": 1.1417, "total_long_balls": 0.7424, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4008, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.442, "crosses_total": 1.8156, "crosses_accurate": 0.4946, "touches": 18.5606, "possession_lost": 4.8673, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 0.9249, "won_contest": 0.4309, "ball_recovery": 0.5353, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.3019, "fouls_drawn": 0.5983, "assists": 0.1174, "assist_rate": 0.1174, "interceptions": 0.1174, "tackles_won": 0.0897, "tackles": 0.089, "clearances": 0.1209, "blocks": 0.1451, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.1213, "xgot": 0.1661, "offsides": 0.2029, "ball_carries": 5.6283, "total_progression": 24.1797, "progressive_carries": 1.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.764 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0071, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2667, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.0 to 36.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1123, "goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 0.4187, "total_shots": 1.5647, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "key_pass": 1.1919, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 36.72, "total_pass": 17.6541, "accurate_pass": 15.1028, "duels_won": 1.7125, "total_long_balls": 1.1136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.163, "crosses_total": 2.7234, "crosses_accurate": 0.7419, "touches": 27.8409, "possession_lost": 7.301, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 2.3986, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 1.3874, "won_contest": 0.6463, "ball_recovery": 0.803, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.4528, "fouls_drawn": 0.8975, "assists": 0.1761, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "interceptions": 0.1761, "tackles_won": 0.1335, "tackles": 0.1335, "clearances": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.2177, "big_chances_created": 0.1773, "big_chances_missed": 0.182, "xgot": 0.2491, "offsides": 0.2029, "ball_carries": 8.4425, "total_progression": 36.2696, "progressive_carries": 1.6383, "shots_off_target": 1.146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.553, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.72, "projection_minutes": 24.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.553 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1123, "goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 0.4187, "total_shots": 1.5647, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "key_pass": 1.1919, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 36.72, "total_pass": 17.6541, "accurate_pass": 15.1028, "duels_won": 1.7125, "total_long_balls": 1.1136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.163, "crosses_total": 2.7234, "crosses_accurate": 0.7419, "touches": 27.8409, "possession_lost": 7.301, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 2.3986, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 1.3874, "won_contest": 0.6463, "ball_recovery": 0.803, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.4528, "fouls_drawn": 0.8975, "assists": 0.1761, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "interceptions": 0.1761, "tackles_won": 0.1335, "tackles": 0.1335, "clearances": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.2177, "big_chances_created": 0.1773, "big_chances_missed": 0.182, "xgot": 0.2491, "offsides": 0.2029, "ball_carries": 8.4425, "total_progression": 36.2696, "progressive_carries": 1.6383, "shots_off_target": 1.146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.553, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1123, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4187, "total_shots": 1.5647, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "key_pass": 1.1919, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 36.72, "total_pass": 17.6541, "accurate_pass": 15.1028, "duels_won": 1.7125, "total_long_balls": 1.1136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.163, "crosses_total": 2.7234, "crosses_accurate": 0.7419, "touches": 27.8409, "possession_lost": 7.301, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 2.3986, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 1.3874, "won_contest": 0.6463, "ball_recovery": 0.803, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.4528, "fouls_drawn": 0.8975, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1761, "tackles_won": 0.1335, "tackles": 0.1335, "clearances": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.2177, "big_chances_created": 0.1773, "big_chances_missed": 0.182, "xgot": 0.2491, "offsides": 0.2029, "ball_carries": 8.4425, "total_progression": 36.2696, "progressive_carries": 1.6383, "shots_off_target": 1.146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.553, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.553, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1123, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4187, "total_shots": 1.5647, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "key_pass": 1.1919, "rating": 6.8801, "minutes": 36.72, "total_pass": 17.6541, "accurate_pass": 15.1028, "duels_won": 1.7125, "total_long_balls": 1.1136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.163, "crosses_total": 2.7234, "crosses_accurate": 0.7419, "touches": 27.8409, "possession_lost": 7.301, "dispossessed": 0.2616, "duels_lost": 2.3986, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 1.3874, "won_contest": 0.6463, "ball_recovery": 0.803, "challenges_lost": 0.1434, "fouls": 0.4528, "fouls_drawn": 0.8975, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1761, "tackles_won": 0.1335, "tackles": 0.1335, "clearances": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.2177, "big_chances_created": 0.1773, "big_chances_missed": 0.182, "xgot": 0.2491, "offsides": 0.2029, "ball_carries": 8.4425, "total_progression": 36.2696, "progressive_carries": 1.6383, "shots_off_target": 1.146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.553, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.72, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 471, "fifa_rank": 371.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Benjamin Šeško": { "player_id": 986397, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 195, "market_value": 78000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.287, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2471, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4365, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3139, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3149, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1116, "combined_rank_score": 499.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 613.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.775, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6323, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benjamin Šeško", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arihiro Sentoku", "ranking": 1111 }, { "player_name": "Leonel González", "ranking": 1112 }, { "player_name": "Veldin Hodža", "ranking": 1113 }, { "player_name": "Breno Bidon", "ranking": 1114 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jeong Hyun", "ranking": 1117 }, { "player_name": "Jaba Jigauri", "ranking": 1118 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Opeyemi Teidi", "ranking": 1119 }, { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 1120 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 1121 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.755, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (34 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "shots_on_target": 0.4092, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3055, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 4.946, "accurate_pass": 3.7629, "duels_won": 0.8007, "total_long_balls": 0.0259, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0259, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9398, "crosses_total": 0.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0998, "possession_lost": 2.3566, "dispossessed": 0.2946, "duels_lost": 2.1612, "aerial_lost": 1.2478, "total_contest": 0.4912, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.1311, "challenges_lost": 0.0228, "fouls": 0.3444, "fouls_drawn": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1595, "blocks": 0.0194, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1536, "xgot": 0.1713, "offsides": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 2.3632, "total_progression": 8.9014, "progressive_carries": 0.5264, "shots_off_target": 0.5812 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.8711, "expectedGoals": 0.2691, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.3735, "accuratePass": 5.6189, "totalShots": 1.5366 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12007563561201096, "model_output": 0.1201, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 0.1201, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.625872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.140822 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044331 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.039046 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.02654 } ], "others_margin": -0.033922 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14207115769386292, "model_output": 0.1421, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0911 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0045, "total": 0.1421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.594597 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.146859 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.054467 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.042375 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040538 } ], "others_margin": 0.032797 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40920290350914, "model_output": 0.4092, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2284 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0401, "total": 0.4092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049014 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.048227 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.045077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034905 } ], "others_margin": 0.102973 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9904407858848572, "model_output": 0.9904, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0932 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0335 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.9904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568443 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093239 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043029 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.042886 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.033549 } ], "others_margin": -0.027661 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.015224253758788109, "model_output": 0.0152, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.0152, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.216865 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.184861 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.105129 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.081294 } ], "others_margin": -0.450058 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30554136633872986, "model_output": 0.3055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2527 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.3055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470342 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080838 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077958 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046015 } ], "others_margin": -0.05603 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.632325649261475, "model_output": 6.6323, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 6.6323, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016304 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.012328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011594 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01111 } ], "others_margin": -0.046066 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1218, "goals": 0.1441, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "shots_on_target": 0.4151, "total_shots": 1.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5896 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1218, "goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1438, "shots_on_target": 0.4142, "total_shots": 1.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5896 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goals": 0.1592, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goals": 0.1592, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1348, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1348, "after": 0.1186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "scorer_weight": 0.1343, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0793, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.111, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.343, "rating": 6.6323, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6526, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0116, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0092, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Leny Yoro": { "player_id": 1153315, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 190, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1966, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1988, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023983, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2589, "expected_assists": 0.1304, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2687, "combined_rank_score": 939.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 757.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6567, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6666, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leny Yoro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Barco", "ranking": 2683 }, { "player_name": "Denis Bouanga", "ranking": 2684 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 2685 }, { "player_name": "Evander", "ranking": 2686 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 2688 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Espejo", "ranking": 2689 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Zannoni", "ranking": 2690 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrobjon Parmonkulov", "ranking": 2691 }, { "player_name": "Hislat Khalilov", "ranking": 2692 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.632, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0114, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (35 historical appearances) to 16.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4928, "tackles": 0.8103, "tackles_won": 0.3959, "clearances": 1.0226, "aerial_won": 0.4093, "total_shots": 0.1973, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.847, "accurate_pass": 7.7602, "duels_won": 0.923, "total_long_balls": 0.6223, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2918, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8441, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2952, "possession_lost": 1.5477, "dispossessed": 0.1816, "duels_lost": 0.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.2844, "total_contest": 0.1838, "won_contest": 0.0319, "ball_recovery": 0.4756, "challenges_lost": 0.0606, "fouls": 0.2867, "fouls_drawn": 0.0319, "blocks": 0.3006, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6204, "total_progression": 33.4243, "progressive_carries": 0.8567, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1973 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2863, "aerialWon": 0.7817, "totalClearance_p90": 5.8791, "totalTackle": 1.1955, "defensive_actions": 2.9098 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.49279531836509705, "model_output": 0.4928, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4976 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0451, "total": 0.4928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862861 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.139437 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.063798 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.034463 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.028924 } ], "others_margin": 0.096233 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8103185892105103, "model_output": 0.8103, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.8103, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.715654 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.066851 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042109 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035346 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.031322 } ], "others_margin": -0.000688 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39589646458625793, "model_output": 0.3959, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4657 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.3959, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.787901 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038287 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.037625 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.037279 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.033588 } ], "others_margin": 0.015899 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0225539207458496, "model_output": 1.0226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1617 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1995 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1512 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": 0.105, "total": 1.0226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.993556 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.170783 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.152093 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.041739 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038786 } ], "others_margin": 0.108332 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.40925613045692444, "model_output": 0.4093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1385 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.03 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 0.4093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.930483 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.294305 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.086457 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.077973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.077711 } ], "others_margin": 0.097434 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19731293618679047, "model_output": 0.1973, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1817 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0385, "total": 0.1973, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.181667 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087681 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036624 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014742 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008768 } ], "others_margin": -0.03849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666565895080566, "model_output": 6.6666, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 6.6666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035657 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015828 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015435 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011648 } ], "others_margin": -0.02432 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4984, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1996, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.29, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1994, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1791, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 16.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.12, "projection_minutes": 16.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0, "appearance_probability": 0.632 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.632 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2687, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.003, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0018, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "appearance_weight": 0.632, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8196, "tackles_won": 0.4, "clearances": 1.0342, "aerial_won": 0.4139, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.6666, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9479, "accurate_pass": 7.8487, "duels_won": 0.9335, "total_long_balls": 0.6294, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2951, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9607, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4354, "possession_lost": 1.5653, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9762, "aerial_lost": 0.2876, "total_contest": 0.1859, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.481, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2907, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6617, "total_progression": 33.8053, "progressive_carries": 0.8665, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.632, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "finishing_factor": 0.9174, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0039, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0035, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0028, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "appearance_weight": 0.632, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carlos Baleba": { "player_id": 1199043, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 179, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.085, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3317, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2006, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023972, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1907, "combined_rank_score": 737.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 775.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.64, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 700.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7298, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking": 1902 }, { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 }, { "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking": 1906 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "ranking": 1908 }, { "player_name": "Ramy Najjarine", "ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64127853832616, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5746035699239163, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0143, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (32 historical appearances) to 23.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5003, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0341, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.691, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 11.2532, "accurate_pass": 9.792, "duels_won": 2.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.4621, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0194, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2109, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6821, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5811, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6497, "possession_lost": 2.4265, "dispossessed": 0.1659, "duels_lost": 1.2397, "aerial_won": 0.4229, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9458, "tackles_won": 0.2396, "tackles": 1.0094, "clearances": 0.5381, "total_contest": 0.5803, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.1825, "fouls": 0.3642, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1471, "total_progression": 25.1304, "progressive_carries": 0.5942, "shots_off_target": 0.5824 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9803, "creative_index": 0.3596, "expectedGoals": 0.0409, "expectedAssists": 0.0379, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1501 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5002878904342651, "model_output": 0.5003, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3521 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 0.5003, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501346 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.065087 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.05502 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.054613 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044977 } ], "others_margin": 0.051707 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02548789046704769, "model_output": 0.0255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.0255, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597164 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.195467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.122411 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.053433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.046483 } ], "others_margin": -0.196994 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03412292152643204, "model_output": 0.0341, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.0341, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245198 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.194441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085684 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.082297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078594 } ], "others_margin": -0.252497 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03574296459555626, "model_output": 0.0357, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0011 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.0357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499233 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.120802 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.105735 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.093628 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.027555 } ], "others_margin": -0.123124 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.038546714931726456, "model_output": 0.0385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.0385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409477 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.123588 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096052 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065779 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063564 } ], "others_margin": -0.172478 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.10862880945205688, "model_output": 0.1086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1526 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 0.1086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.632102 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.111752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.110751 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05938 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048196 } ], "others_margin": -0.254711 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6910434365272522, "model_output": 0.691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0288, "total": 0.691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324264 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.04898 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.044075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036424 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032262 } ], "others_margin": 0.02884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729770183563232, "model_output": 6.7298, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.7298, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0922 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021941 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012705 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009756 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006081 } ], "others_margin": -0.006014 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5074, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "assists": 0.0346, "assist_rate": 0.0346, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1102, "total_shots": 0.7009, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 11.4141, "accurate_pass": 9.932, "duels_won": 2.2975, "total_long_balls": 1.483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.034, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2711, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9021, "possession_lost": 2.4612, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4289, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9593, "tackles_won": 0.243, "tackles": 1.0238, "clearances": 0.5458, "total_contest": 0.5886, "won_contest": 0.054, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.3694, "fouls_drawn": 0.7907, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.198, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2207, "total_progression": 25.4898, "progressive_carries": 0.6027, "shots_off_target": 0.5907 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.64, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1874, "appearance_probability": 0.575 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3082, xG scale 1.1650, xA scale 1.1301, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3082, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0789, "team_expected_assists": 1.2192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.165, "xa_scale": 1.1301, "opponent_lambda": 1.207, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.575 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0431, "after": 0.0289 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0308, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1907, "fifa_rank": 700.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "scorer_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 1.6938, "weight_share": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "appearance_weight": 0.575, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.4916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4916, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6025, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1309, "total_shots": 0.8323, "rating": 6.7298, "minutes": 23.64, "total_pass": 13.5532, "accurate_pass": 11.7933, "duels_won": 2.7281, "total_long_balls": 1.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2278, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0715, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7218, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.2571, "possession_lost": 2.9224, "dispossessed": 0.1683, "duels_lost": 1.493, "aerial_won": 0.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1391, "tackles_won": 0.2885, "tackles": 1.2157, "clearances": 0.6481, "total_contest": 0.6989, "won_contest": 0.0641, "challenges_lost": 0.1851, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.9389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2351, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1991, "total_progression": 30.2668, "progressive_carries": 0.7157, "shots_off_target": 0.7014, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.575, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.044, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0282, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.0354, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "provider_weight": 0.0226, "squad_weight_total": 1.2581, "weight_share": 0.0179, "creation_factor": 1.1275, "appearance_weight": 0.575, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3209, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3209, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2318, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.52, "expected_assists": 1.22, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 519, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.01, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.693, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "xg_contribution": 0.1544, "xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (SS) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.693, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "xg_contribution": 0.3386, "xg_multiplier": 0.9748, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (SS) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €43M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.0405, "xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (LWB) is evenly matched against Lisandro Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Luke Shaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.1328, "xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke Shaw", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (RWB) is slightly favored against Luke Shaw in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anton Stach", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.1464, "xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anton Stach (CM) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.0484, "xg_multiplier": 0.9041, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€33M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "xg_contribution": 0.0612, "xg_multiplier": 0.7923, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "xg_contribution": 0.1866, "xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Tarik Muharemović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.665, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "xg_contribution": 0.1765, "xg_multiplier": 1.0744, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (ST) is slightly favored against Tarik Muharemović and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.665, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "xg_contribution": 0.3853, "xg_multiplier": 1.0202, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (ST) is evenly matched against Tarik Muharemović and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.385 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.665, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1319, "xg_multiplier": 0.9709, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (ST) is evenly matched against Tarik Muharemović and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.723, "away_midfield_power": 0.802, "home_creative_power": 0.561, "away_creative_power": 0.755, "home_defensive_power": 0.616, "away_defensive_power": 0.712, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.474, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ao Tanaka", "Ethan Ampadu", "Jayden Bogle", "Anton Stach" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Ethan Ampadu vs Kobbie Mainoo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.986, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.013 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.207, "away_lambda": 1.524, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Luke Shaw", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Anton Stach", "Ethan Ampadu", "Ao Tanaka", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luke Shaw": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Diogo Dalot": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1365, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1302, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9376, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9384, "home_midfield_factor": 0.986, "away_midfield_factor": 1.013, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6736, "away_avg_quality": 0.748, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0744, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5189, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.6147, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5953, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2053, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1129, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0657, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9223, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0542 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.986, "result": 1.0395 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.9875 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1356 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9922, "result": 1.1268 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.9852 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9376, "result": 0.9237 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1365, "result": 1.0602 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0602, "result": 1.0602, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2053, "factor": 0.9343, "pre": 1.0602, "result": 0.9905 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9905 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1851, "result": 1.1761 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.7241, "result": 1.2813 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2813, "result": 1.281, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.243 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.243, "result": 1.2075, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.207 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.207 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.207, "result": 1.207, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.207 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8803, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0683 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.013, "result": 1.0822 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.1363 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1363 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9389, "result": 1.0669 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.9328 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9384, "result": 0.8754 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1302, "result": 1.0056 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0056, "result": 1.0056, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2053, "factor": 1.1129, "pre": 1.0056, "result": 1.1191 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1191 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.339 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.3467 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3467, "result": 1.347, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.482 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.482, "result": 1.5244, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.524 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.524 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.524, "result": 1.524, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.524 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1851, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Leeds United", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.207, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.524, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2813, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3467, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.207, "final_away_lambda": 1.524 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9922, "attack_index": 0.968, "defense_concede_index": 1.006, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.42, "opponent_ppg": 1.17 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9389, "attack_index": 1.006, "defense_concede_index": 0.855, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.17, "opponent_ppg": 1.42 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Leeds vs Man Utd. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.281, Away 1.347). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.207, Away 1.524 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Leeds United", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.207, "away_lambda": 1.524, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.281, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.347 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:34:55Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }