{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1738, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0747, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1738, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Sociedad", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2616, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1738 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1166 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1141 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0853 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1166, "0-1": 0.1738, "0-2": 0.1313, "0-3": 0.0658, "0-4": 0.0248, "0-5": 0.0075, "0-6": 0.0019, "1-0": 0.0747, "1-1": 0.1141, "1-2": 0.0853, "1-3": 0.0428, "1-4": 0.0161, "1-5": 0.0048, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0245, "2-1": 0.0368, "2-2": 0.0277, "2-3": 0.0139, "2-4": 0.0052, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0053, "3-1": 0.008, "3-2": 0.006, "3-3": 0.003, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0009, "4-1": 0.0013, "4-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1595, "draw": 0.2616, "away_win": 0.5789 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3652, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6348, "btts_yes": 0.3725, "btts_no": 0.6275, "home_clean_sheet": 0.222, "away_clean_sheet": 0.522 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.05 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.73, "MCR": 6.93, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Málaga 4W-3D-3L vs Real Sociedad over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Orri Óskarsson", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Pablo Martínez vs Jon Gorrotxategi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 1.505, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1738, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1595, "draw": 0.2616, "away_win": 0.5789 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5789, "fair_spread": -0.855, "fair_total": 2.155, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.505, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3652, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3725, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.222, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2019, "probability": 0.1828, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.4036, "probability": 0.3321, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1219, "probability": 0.1148, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.1887, "probability": 0.172, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.155, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 818, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.3, "possession_home_pct": 47.5, "possession_away_pct": 52.5, "notes": "Real Sociedad projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5789, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.85 goals and fair total 2.15.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Orri Óskarsson against Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Sociedad projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jens-Lys Cajuste, Joaquín Muñoz, Juan Cruz.", "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Orri Óskarsson; bench watchlist: Gonçalo Guedes, Job Ochieng.", "Assist usage should flow through Ander Barrenetxea; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.08 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "4-1-4-1", "players": { "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1558, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1828, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0259, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2089, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6769, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2054, "combined_rank_score": 783.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.725, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chupete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Liam Jessop", "ranking": 2049 }, { "player_name": "Tohirjon Ashuboyev", "ranking": 2050 }, { "player_name": "Javier Méndez", "ranking": 2051 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Marín", "ranking": 2052 }, { "player_name": "Lee Rim", "ranking": 2053 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miguelito", "ranking": 2055 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Herrera", "ranking": 2056 }, { "player_name": "Joon-mo Kang", "ranking": 2057 }, { "player_name": "Maks Juraj Čelić", "ranking": 2058 }, { "player_name": "Eligijus Jankauskas", "ranking": 2059 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 12.5, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3011, "goals": 0.3417, "goal_rate": 0.3417, "shots_on_target": 0.8368, "total_shots": 2.0138, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.5915, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.5643, "accurate_pass": 9.3627, "duels_won": 3.7808, "total_long_balls": 0.4513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5246, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.894, "crosses_total": 0.7838, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8028, "possession_lost": 9.8471, "dispossessed": 0.098, "duels_lost": 4.9793, "aerial_lost": 2.043, "total_contest": 1.3005, "won_contest": 0.3753, "ball_recovery": 1.3174, "challenges_lost": 0.6462, "fouls": 1.2669, "fouls_drawn": 1.1063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1595, "tackles_won": 0.3689, "tackles": 0.3689, "clearances": 1.4786, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0.4543, "ball_carries": 5.6499, "total_progression": 16.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8741, "shots_off_target": 1.177 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.8701, "expectedGoals": 0.2786, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.8334, "accuratePass": 7.9993, "totalShots": 1.6905 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.30108800530433655, "model_output": 0.3011, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.3011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276528 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.105481 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064247 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05253 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.044276 } ], "others_margin": -0.016436 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3417222797870636, "model_output": 0.3417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.014, "total": 0.3417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25129 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.162219 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.115104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.098842 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.079711 } ], "others_margin": 0.042076 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8368380665779114, "model_output": 0.8368, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1685 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0586 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0395 } ], "others": 0.0435, "total": 0.8368, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.272683 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.079662 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.075948 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.061494 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051081 } ], "others_margin": 0.053452 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0138251781463623, "model_output": 2.0138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5027 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1224 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0502 } ], "others": 0.0518, "total": 2.0138, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.502687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.122445 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.06378 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050465 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.050221 } ], "others_margin": 0.051757 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.034241337329149246, "model_output": 0.0342, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.0342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271531 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.15071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.141445 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.11334 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.058503 } ], "others_margin": -0.436343 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5914561748504639, "model_output": 0.5915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2002 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.1054, "total": 0.5915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.260258 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072673 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.057455 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.02939 } ], "others_margin": -0.163942 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725028038024902, "model_output": 6.725, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0798, "total": 6.725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05039 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023479 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01976 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016195 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014498 } ], "others_margin": -0.079818 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.302, "goals": 0.3427, "goal_rate": 0.3427, "shots_on_target": 0.8393, "total_shots": 2.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2707, "fouls_drawn": 1.1096, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.16, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2342, "xgot": 0.233, "offsides": 0.4557, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.1805 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0500)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.302, "goals": 0.3418, "goal_rate": 0.3418, "shots_on_target": 0.8134, "total_shots": 2.0491, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.384, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2342, "xgot": 0.233, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.1805 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.05, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9753, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7862, "after": 0.7469 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0199, "after": 2.0491 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8393, "after": 0.8134 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2707, "after": 1.2559 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.37, "after": 0.384 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.16, "after": 0.152 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1096, "after": 1.1029 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.4557, "after": 0.4492 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.302, "goals": 0.3418, "goal_rate": 0.3418, "shots_on_target": 0.8134, "total_shots": 2.0491, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2342, "xgot": 0.233, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.1805 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2644, "goals": 0.2992, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.204, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "skill_edge": -0.0667, "height_edge": -0.018, "attacker_skill": 0.5306, "defender_skill": 0.6789, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.732 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 } ], "xg_override": 0.2644 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0491, "after": 1.794 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1805, "after": 1.0335 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8134, "after": 0.7121 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3418, "after": 0.2992 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.302, "after": 0.2644 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2342, "after": 0.205 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.233, "after": 0.204 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2644, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.204, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.1558, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2644, "after": 0.2019 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0343, "after": 0.0262 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.1558, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2054, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.1558, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1828, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1828, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "scorer_weight": 0.2243, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.3233, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2992, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7121, "total_shots": 1.794, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.5932, "rating": 6.725, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 15.611, "accurate_pass": 9.3908, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 0.4527, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9147, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8832, "possession_lost": 9.8766, "dispossessed": 0.0983, "duels_lost": 4.9942, "aerial_lost": 2.0491, "total_contest": 1.3044, "won_contest": 0.3764, "ball_recovery": 1.3214, "challenges_lost": 0.6481, "fouls": 1.2559, "fouls_drawn": 1.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.37, "clearances": 1.483, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.205, "xgot": 0.1558, "offsides": 0.4492, "ball_carries": 5.6668, "total_progression": 16.9903, "progressive_carries": 0.8767, "shots_off_target": 1.0335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1828, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0259, "finishing_factor": 1.1107, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0461, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Adrián Niño": { "player_id": 1402927, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 186, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1383, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1327, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1032, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0803, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.289, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1408, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4211, "combined_rank_score": 2241.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4265.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6979, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adrián Niño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Léo Scienza", "ranking": 4206 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 4207 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Avom Ebong", "ranking": 4208 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Pérez", "ranking": 4209 }, { "player_name": "Salomón Rondón", "ranking": 4210 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Sanson", "ranking": 4215 }, { "player_name": "Hamari Traoré", "ranking": 4216 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9887, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.23, "goals": 0.2596, "goal_rate": 0.2596, "shots_on_target": 0.8067, "total_shots": 2.0794, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.5525, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.5359, "accurate_pass": 4.0024, "duels_won": 1.2327, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3878, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7626, "possession_lost": 1.5275, "dispossessed": 0.3138, "duels_lost": 2.7942, "aerial_lost": 2.2137, "total_contest": 0.2667, "won_contest": 0.2667, "ball_recovery": 0.2667, "challenges_lost": 0.2667, "fouls": 0.1927, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.2667, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2233, "offsides": 0.2267, "ball_carries": 1.4935, "total_progression": 8.8816, "progressive_carries": 0.4935, "shots_off_target": 1.2727 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.9213, "expectedGoals": 0.1465, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.3878, "accuratePass": 4.0024, "totalShots": 1.6993 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2299683541059494, "model_output": 0.23, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.23, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.275497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.131493 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.058036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.054795 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.050855 } ], "others_margin": -0.039514 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.25964897871017456, "model_output": 0.2596, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.2596, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.292942 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.166185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.072009 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.05236 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.049129 } ], "others_margin": 0.048831 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8066661953926086, "model_output": 0.8067, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1786 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0674 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0376 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.8067, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.286837 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.089981 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062893 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051423 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.047358 } ], "others_margin": -0.007003 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0793776512145996, "model_output": 2.0794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1193 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0865 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0431 } ], "others": 0.0307, "total": 2.0794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.460427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.119289 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.086473 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043071 } ], "others_margin": 0.030627 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.034411877393722534, "model_output": 0.0344, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.0344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.263539 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.21615 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.160303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.116955 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.082055 } ], "others_margin": -0.311921 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.552548348903656, "model_output": 0.5525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0745 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0433 } ], "others": -0.0995, "total": 0.5525, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26452 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088716 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075228 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.068556 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.064323 } ], "others_margin": -0.165448 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697890758514404, "model_output": 6.6979, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0823, "total": 6.6979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022636 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.0157 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015199 } ], "others_margin": -0.082256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2274, "goals": 0.2567, "goal_rate": 0.2567, "shots_on_target": 0.7976, "total_shots": 2.0559, "expected_assists": 0.034, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.2583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2274, "goals": 0.2567, "goal_rate": 0.2567, "shots_on_target": 0.7976, "total_shots": 2.0559, "expected_assists": 0.034, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.2583 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1864, "goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.034, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.181, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "skill_edge": -0.1087, "height_edge": -0.014, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6789, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.732 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 } ], "xg_override": 0.1864 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0559, "after": 1.6852 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2583, "after": 1.0314 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7976, "after": 0.6538 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2567, "after": 0.2104 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2274, "after": 0.1864 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2208, "after": 0.181 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1864, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.034, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.181, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1383, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1864, "after": 0.1424 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.034, "after": 0.026 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1383, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4211, "fifa_rank": 4265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1383, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1327, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1327, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "scorer_weight": 0.1569, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.2261, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.2104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6538, "total_shots": 1.6852, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.5463, "rating": 6.6979, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 4.4846, "accurate_pass": 3.9572, "duels_won": 1.2188, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3608, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.6636, "possession_lost": 1.5102, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 2.7626, "aerial_lost": 2.1887, "total_contest": 0.2637, "won_contest": 0.2637, "ball_recovery": 0.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "tackles": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.2637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1383, "offsides": 0.2241, "ball_carries": 1.4766, "total_progression": 8.7812, "progressive_carries": 0.4879, "shots_off_target": 1.0314, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1327, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1015, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0208, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0457, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "player_id": 1465424, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 176, "market_value": 2300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 82, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0475, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "creation_factor": 0.964, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1761, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 67, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4238, "combined_rank_score": 2259.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4261.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9314, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Lorenzo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raúl de Tomás", "ranking": 4233 }, { "player_name": "Romain Faivre", "ranking": 4234 }, { "player_name": "Matt Targett", "ranking": 4235 }, { "player_name": "Matías Arezo", "ranking": 4236 }, { "player_name": "Montassar Talbi", "ranking": 4237 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Himad Abdelli", "ranking": 4239 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Boggio", "ranking": 4240 }, { "player_name": "José Florentín", "ranking": 4241 }, { "player_name": "John Souttar", "ranking": 4242 }, { "player_name": "Osame Sahraoui", "ranking": 4243 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.706, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.706, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 163.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0643, "assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0623, "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goals": 0.0617, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0.2014, "total_shots": 0.6166, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.7855, "accurate_pass": 46.4739, "duels_won": 5.3951, "total_long_balls": 2.9495, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0974, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7107, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.6633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7632, "crosses_total": 0.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.1849, "possession_lost": 7.8217, "dispossessed": 1.2326, "duels_lost": 3.9512, "aerial_won": 0.2408, "aerial_lost": 0.3219, "interceptions": 0.6285, "tackles_won": 1.103, "tackles": 1.5764, "clearances": 0.6141, "total_contest": 2.9034, "won_contest": 2.0996, "challenges_lost": 0.683, "fouls": 0.9099, "fouls_drawn": 1.4783, "blocks": 0.1257, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.186, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.8019, "total_progression": 83.174, "progressive_carries": 2.0684, "shots_off_target": 0.4152 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.3029, "creative_index": 0.3179, "expectedGoals": 0.0297, "expectedAssists": 0.0348, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7320744395256042, "model_output": 0.7321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1114 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0955 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0687 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0372 } ], "others": -0.0838, "total": 0.7321, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117525 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.099862 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.078629 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.076005 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04665 } ], "others_margin": -0.108363 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06434919685125351, "model_output": 0.0643, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.0643, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.207674 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146279 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.121717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.102175 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.101492 } ], "others_margin": -0.102035 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06225433200597763, "model_output": 0.0623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.0623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.150212 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.085465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080617 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.074455 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045439 } ], "others_margin": -0.211411 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04509510472416878, "model_output": 0.0451, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.0451, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.216224 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190723 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.154037 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116576 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.05474 } ], "others_margin": -0.238506 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06173653155565262, "model_output": 0.0617, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149947 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103256 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.089893 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.071557 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058827 } ], "others_margin": -0.166237 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20143014192581177, "model_output": 0.2014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.2014, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.143573 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123335 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.118661 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.062979 } ], "others_margin": -0.15535 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6165964603424072, "model_output": 0.6166, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2621 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0399 } ], "others": -0.088, "total": 0.6166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.262079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063667 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043326 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039877 } ], "others_margin": -0.088086 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.931375026702881, "model_output": 6.9314, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0879 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0326, "total": 6.9314, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087856 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032337 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026941 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01915 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017019 } ], "others_margin": -0.032645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assists": 0.0617, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0612, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.6115, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.2388, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6232, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.9023, "fouls_drawn": 1.4659, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1844, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0325)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1932, "total_shots": 0.5916, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.2388, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1844, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0325, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8738, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9023, "after": 0.873 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6115, "after": 0.5916 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0937, "after": 1.0739 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6232, "after": 0.6345 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.203, "after": 0.1964 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1997, "after": 0.1932 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1932, "total_shots": 0.6049, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.2388, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1844, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "skill_edge": -0.1261, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.7176, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7176 } ], "xg_override": 0.0362 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2388, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6049, "after": 0.4893 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4117, "after": 0.333 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1932, "after": 0.1563 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1844, "after": 0.1491 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0479 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0447, "after": 0.0362 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "creation_factor": 0.964 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0362, "after": 0.0277 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0638, "after": 0.0487 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "creation_factor": 0.964, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4238, "fifa_rank": 4261.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "creation_factor": 0.964, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "scorer_weight": 0.0315, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0454, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1563, "total_shots": 0.4893, "rating": 6.9314, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3589, "accurate_pass": 46.0835, "duels_won": 5.3498, "total_long_balls": 2.9247, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9364, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5367, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5468, "crosses_total": 0.1964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6457, "possession_lost": 7.756, "dispossessed": 1.2222, "duels_lost": 3.918, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3192, "interceptions": 0.6345, "tackles_won": 1.0739, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 0.6089, "total_contest": 2.879, "won_contest": 2.082, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.873, "fouls_drawn": 1.4656, "blocks": 0.1246, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1491, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6188, "total_progression": 82.4753, "progressive_carries": 2.051, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0475, "finishing_factor": 1.1357, "creation_factor": 0.964, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0475, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "provider_weight": 0.0469, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.1032, "creation_factor": 0.964, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "David Larrubia": { "player_id": 1002405, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 172, "market_value": 6300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 137, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1148, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.204, "expected_assists": 0.1723, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.122, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1965, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1257, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1361, "combined_rank_score": 577.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 577.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1189, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Larrubia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marko Bakić", "ranking": 1356 }, { "player_name": "Nika Gagnidze", "ranking": 1357 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Geraldes", "ranking": 1358 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Niño", "ranking": 1359 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Arguibide", "ranking": 1360 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "John Edwin Montaño", "ranking": 1362 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Xavier", "ranking": 1363 }, { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9969, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 215.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.93, "shots_on_target_pct": 28.6, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goals": 0.1422, "goal_rate": 0.1422, "shots_on_target": 0.5428, "total_shots": 1.7361, "expected_assists": 0.1599, "key_pass": 1.5474, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.2947, "accurate_pass": 24.7151, "duels_won": 6.66, "total_long_balls": 2.1666, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6711, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4678, "crosses_total": 1.0727, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.1393, "possession_lost": 17.1081, "dispossessed": 2.1439, "duels_lost": 8.77, "aerial_lost": 0.2508, "total_contest": 6.6359, "won_contest": 3.0783, "ball_recovery": 3.7428, "challenges_lost": 1.9026, "fouls": 1.1028, "fouls_drawn": 1.3252, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8391, "tackles_won": 1.2517, "tackles": 2.0688, "clearances": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.0833, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0861, "offsides": 0.098, "ball_carries": 20.5725, "total_progression": 137.1013, "progressive_carries": 5.3273, "shots_off_target": 1.1932 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 22.8664, "expectedGoals": 0.0969, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 17.5154, "accuratePass": 23.5364, "totalShots": 1.632 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10925433784723282, "model_output": 0.1093, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0387, "total": 0.1093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244889 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181866 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.162385 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.1083 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.080233 } ], "others_margin": -0.304264 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14221002161502838, "model_output": 0.1422, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.1422, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.228734 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.226491 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.132554 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.113078 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.064216 } ], "others_margin": -0.050055 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5428404211997986, "model_output": 0.5428, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1676 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0629 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": 0.0481, "total": 0.5428, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271314 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.119542 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.10591 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.088989 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.039939 } ], "others_margin": 0.092675 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7360892295837402, "model_output": 1.7361, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4878 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1405 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1156 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0799 } ], "others": -0.2482, "total": 1.7361, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.48777 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.177722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.140512 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.115558 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.079921 } ], "others_margin": -0.248276 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15994928777217865, "model_output": 0.1599, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 0.1599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.193955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.18725 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.088648 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.087309 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.083143 } ], "others_margin": 0.272307 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5473663806915283, "model_output": 1.5474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1571 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1177 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0823 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0647 } ], "others": 0.2403, "total": 1.5474, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273586 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.163316 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107021 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068522 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.050771 } ], "others_margin": 0.1688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.118935585021973, "model_output": 7.1189, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0366 } ], "others": 0.1945, "total": 7.1189, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.056247 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.049932 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048645 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039322 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.036626 } ], "others_margin": 0.194413 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.5412, "total_shots": 1.7307, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0694, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0994, "fouls_drawn": 1.3211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8365, "tackles_won": 1.2478, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0977, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 1.1895 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9969, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0400)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1361, "shots_on_target": 0.5523, "total_shots": 1.7758, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 1.1895 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.04, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9753, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2478, "after": 1.3117 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7307, "after": 1.7758 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.0694, "after": 1.0266 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0994, "after": 1.0717 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3211, "after": 1.3008 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0977, "after": 0.11 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5412, "after": 0.5523 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1418, "after": 0.1361 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1361, "shots_on_target": 0.5523, "total_shots": 1.7758, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 1.1895 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.106, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0668, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.779, "skill_edge": -0.0904, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4781, "defender_skill": 0.6789, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.732 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 } ], "xg_override": 0.0848 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7758, "after": 1.3833 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1895, "after": 0.9266 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5523, "after": 0.4302 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1361, "after": 0.106 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1089, "after": 0.0848 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0858, "after": 0.0668 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0668, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0848, "after": 0.0648 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1595, "after": 0.1219 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1361, "fifa_rank": 577.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.106, "scorer_weight": 0.075, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.1081, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4302, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.5426, "rating": 7.1189, "minutes": 87.78, "total_pass": 31.1977, "accurate_pass": 24.6385, "duels_won": 6.6394, "total_long_balls": 2.1599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4105, "crosses_total": 1.0266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9622, "possession_lost": 17.0551, "dispossessed": 2.1373, "duels_lost": 8.7428, "aerial_lost": 0.25, "total_contest": 6.6153, "won_contest": 3.0688, "ball_recovery": 3.7312, "challenges_lost": 1.8967, "fouls": 1.0717, "fouls_drawn": 1.3008, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8356, "tackles_won": 1.3117, "tackles": 2.0624, "clearances": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.083, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.11, "ball_carries": 20.5087, "total_progression": 136.6763, "progressive_carries": 5.3108, "shots_off_target": 0.9266, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.779, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Héctor Fort", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1148, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1148, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0975, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.2144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Carlos Dotor": { "player_id": 997221, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 180, "market_value": 1200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1528, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0487, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0526, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "creation_factor": 0.9917, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1784, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 93, "combined_rank_score": 114.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9154, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Dotor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diogo Costa", "ranking": 88 }, { "player_name": "Vinícius Júnior", "ranking": 89 }, { "player_name": "Khozhiakbar Alizhonov", "ranking": 90 }, { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Nematov", "ranking": 91 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Suárez", "ranking": 92 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cristhian Martínez", "ranking": 94 }, { "player_name": "Luka Stankovski", "ranking": 95 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking": 96 }, { "player_name": "Luke Brattan", "ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Caicedo", "ranking": 98 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.713, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.713, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 228.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.39, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8509, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0737, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "goals": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.0857, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 0.7481, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.6731, "accurate_pass": 35.1155, "duels_won": 3.5343, "total_long_balls": 1.5529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.921, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7045, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4111, "crosses_total": 0.1257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5885, "possession_lost": 9.0245, "dispossessed": 0.7285, "duels_lost": 3.809, "aerial_won": 0.348, "aerial_lost": 0.6195, "interceptions": 0.6781, "tackles_won": 1.0901, "tackles": 1.8526, "clearances": 0.5834, "total_contest": 0.9951, "won_contest": 0.6474, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 1.2791, "fouls_drawn": 0.6864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2423, "ball_carries": 16.1683, "total_progression": 33.4235, "progressive_carries": 1.0361, "shots_off_target": 0.5042 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.5807, "creative_index": 0.2977, "expectedGoals": 0.0503, "expectedAssists": 0.0482, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4451 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8508656620979309, "model_output": 0.8509, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1298 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0971 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0661 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.8509, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135713 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.099715 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.074029 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.033308 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.031366 } ], "others_margin": -0.008338 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07130296528339386, "model_output": 0.0713, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 0.0713, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.186797 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141738 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.045984 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.037503 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.037411 } ], "others_margin": -0.01726 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07365144044160843, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.154564 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085661 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.075463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.073306 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.052285 } ], "others_margin": -0.003951 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0791679248213768, "model_output": 0.0792, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.0792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.135323 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131749 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.061902 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051775 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03538 } ], "others_margin": -0.092987 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08566445112228394, "model_output": 0.0857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.0857, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.158095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.092999 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.081313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.043533 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.043177 } ], "others_margin": -0.072671 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.24385088682174683, "model_output": 0.2439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.2439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270379 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142402 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064844 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058377 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025972 } ], "others_margin": -0.064284 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7480552792549133, "model_output": 0.7481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2581 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0894, "total": 0.7481, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.258076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127265 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046638 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.035808 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.016355 } ], "others_margin": -0.089483 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.915402889251709, "model_output": 6.9154, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0849 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0408, "total": 6.9154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084887 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032148 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031198 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02552 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019568 } ], "others_margin": -0.040798 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0785, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.2418, "total_shots": 0.7418, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1246, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 0.3451, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6724, "tackles_won": 1.0809, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2684, "fouls_drawn": 0.6806, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2403, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0785, "goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0811, "shots_on_target": 0.2466, "total_shots": 0.7241, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 0.3451, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2403, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.5 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0451, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8953, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0809, "after": 1.1291 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2684, "after": 1.2273 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6806, "after": 0.6499 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1246, "after": 0.1513 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7418, "after": 0.7241 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0785, "goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0811, "shots_on_target": 0.2466, "total_shots": 0.7466, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 0.3451, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2403, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "skill_edge": -0.1261, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.7176, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7176 } ], "xg_override": 0.0653 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3451, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7466, "after": 0.6214 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5, "after": 0.4162 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2466, "after": 0.2052 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2403, "after": 0.2 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0811, "after": 0.0675 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0785, "after": 0.0653 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1528, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "creation_factor": 0.9917 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0653, "after": 0.0499 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0707, "after": 0.054 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1528, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "creation_factor": 0.9917, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 93, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1528, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0487, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "creation_factor": 0.9917, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "scorer_weight": 0.0509, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0733, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8437, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2052, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.9154, "minutes": 80.58, "total_pass": 41.323, "accurate_pass": 34.8205, "duels_won": 3.5046, "total_long_balls": 1.5399, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9133, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8768, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4463, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.248, "crosses_total": 0.1513, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.1552, "possession_lost": 8.9487, "dispossessed": 0.7224, "duels_lost": 3.777, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6143, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 1.1291, "tackles": 1.837, "clearances": 0.5785, "total_contest": 0.9867, "won_contest": 0.642, "challenges_lost": 0.8273, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6499, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1528, "ball_carries": 16.0325, "total_progression": 33.1427, "progressive_carries": 1.0274, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "opponent_faced": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0487, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0526, "finishing_factor": 1.0191, "creation_factor": 0.9917, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "provider_weight": 0.0536, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.1177, "creation_factor": 0.9917, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jose Salinas": { "player_id": 1068891, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 178, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1573, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083642, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083303, "match_date": "2026-02-09", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083180, "match_date": "2025-12-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2864, "combined_rank_score": 1199.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 969.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.35, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5783, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jose Salinas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jérémy Corinus", "ranking": 2859 }, { "player_name": "Livio Meier", "ranking": 2860 }, { "player_name": "Park Chae-Joon", "ranking": 2861 }, { "player_name": "Martin Andersen", "ranking": 2862 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Cabello", "ranking": 2863 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Camenzuli", "ranking": 2865 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Loureiro", "ranking": 2866 }, { "player_name": "Saba Sazonov", "ranking": 2867 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Nieto", "ranking": 2868 }, { "player_name": "Adalid Terrazas", "ranking": 2869 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 17, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 17, "data_confidence": 0.756, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9954, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 50.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 17 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.04, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7566, "tackles": 1.636, "tackles_won": 0.9608, "clearances": 2.2851, "aerial_won": 0.8117, "total_shots": 0.2963, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.9865, "accurate_pass": 31.1117, "duels_won": 4.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.174, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3097, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1756, "crosses_total": 1.1417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 50.6985, "possession_lost": 6.3845, "dispossessed": 0.3116, "duels_lost": 3.7845, "aerial_lost": 1.3626, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.692, "ball_recovery": 2.3378, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 1.6059, "fouls_drawn": 0.9829, "blocks": 0.3805, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1253, "total_progression": 38.96, "progressive_carries": 0.7664, "key_pass": 0.6203, "shots_off_target": 0.2963 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1601, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1361, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1157, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0983, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0836, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.071, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0604, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0513, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-09", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0436, "rating": 4.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0371, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 17.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.1599, "aerialWon": 0.5105, "totalClearance_p90": 1.4401, "totalTackle": 1.1495, "defensive_actions": 1.8087 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7566323280334473, "model_output": 0.7566, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1125 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0852 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0219 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.7566, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122832 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.091598 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.054293 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.039848 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.027482 } ], "others_margin": -0.038683 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6359541416168213, "model_output": 1.636, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1967 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0752 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0303 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 1.636, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132238 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.046284 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.033948 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.026685 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.018233 } ], "others_margin": -0.005713 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9608311057090759, "model_output": 0.9608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.113 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": -0.0708, "total": 0.9608, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124271 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.036199 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.034318 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.03364 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.028837 } ], "others_margin": -0.070956 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.285111904144287, "model_output": 2.2851, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3741 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3191 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2658 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.191 } ], "others": 0.1103, "total": 2.2851, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.286877 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135579 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.114452 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.106463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.084162 } ], "others_margin": 0.049432 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8116885423660278, "model_output": 0.8117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4338 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1294 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0523 } ], "others": -0.0542, "total": 0.8117, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.378307 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.147532 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.123462 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122948 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.062287 } ], "others_margin": -0.064706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.29633772373199463, "model_output": 0.2963, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.109 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0538, "total": 0.2963, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.109008 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.043095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033979 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.01429 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010194 } ], "others_margin": -0.053787 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.578299522399902, "model_output": 6.5783, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0866, "total": 6.5783, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.041859 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028481 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018623 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015634 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.015207 } ], "others_margin": -0.086599 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9954, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7532, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9564, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.295, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5985, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.3787, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9954, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0059)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2933, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0059, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9189, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5985, "after": 1.5891 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1364, "after": 1.1297 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9784, "after": 0.9726 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9564, "after": 0.9507 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0296 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2864, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0026, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0038, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7578, "tackles": 1.6284, "tackles_won": 0.9507, "clearances": 2.2746, "aerial_won": 0.808, "total_shots": 0.2949, "rating": 6.5783, "minutes": 82.7, "total_pass": 33.8302, "accurate_pass": 30.9686, "duels_won": 4.1581, "total_long_balls": 0.6771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1732, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8629, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1058, "crosses_total": 1.1297, "crosses_accurate": 0.1064, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 6.3551, "dispossessed": 0.3102, "duels_lost": 3.7671, "aerial_lost": 1.3563, "total_contest": 0.6888, "won_contest": 0.6888, "ball_recovery": 2.327, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 0.9726, "blocks": 0.3787, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0741, "total_progression": 38.7808, "progressive_carries": 0.7629, "key_pass": 0.6174, "shots_off_target": 0.2949, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9311, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0521, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Ángel Recio": { "player_id": 1123218, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 185, "market_value": 1000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 55, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.005, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0064, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 60, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.069, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 65, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 102, "accurate_pass": 96, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7921, "combined_rank_score": 6392.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 983.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 11802.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8671, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ángel Recio", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Fabian Schleusener", "ranking": 7916 }, { "player_name": "Johannes Schenk", "ranking": 7917 }, { "player_name": "Tim Oberdorf", "ranking": 7918 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Santos", "ranking": 7919 }, { "player_name": "Khalid Eissa", "ranking": 7920 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ramón Martínez", "ranking": 7922 }, { "player_name": "Adis Jašić", "ranking": 7923 }, { "player_name": "Chan Kim", "ranking": 7924 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Zapata", "ranking": 7925 }, { "player_name": "Loïs Diony", "ranking": 7926 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9155, "tackles": 1.2017, "tackles_won": 0.7652, "clearances": 4.8982, "aerial_won": 1.9267, "total_shots": 0.6891, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.3717, "accurate_pass": 55.4925, "duels_won": 3.3326, "total_long_balls": 5.3094, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4881, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.772, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7204, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2046, "possession_lost": 5.1771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6444, "aerial_lost": 1.2999, "total_contest": 0.1753, "won_contest": 0.1753, "ball_recovery": 3.6895, "challenges_lost": 0.682, "fouls": 0.6625, "fouls_drawn": 0.5039, "blocks": 0.6871, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.1076, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 21.5722, "total_progression": 95.9206, "progressive_carries": 1.1575, "key_pass": 0.0778, "shots_off_target": 0.5815 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.6952, "aerialWon": 1.6747, "totalClearance_p90": 4.6952, "totalTackle": 0.9789, "defensive_actions": 1.5634 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9155097603797913, "model_output": 0.9155, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0862 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 0.9155, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125211 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.09249 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.02921 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.01527 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014793 } ], "others_margin": 0.027959 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.201676368713379, "model_output": 1.2017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1698 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0952 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0345 } ], "others": -0.2023, "total": 1.2017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115148 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.062886 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.035178 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032997 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.024885 } ], "others_margin": -0.15564 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7651565670967102, "model_output": 0.7652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1036 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.1292, "total": 0.7652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11443 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.049342 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.044925 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.037476 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.026605 } ], "others_margin": -0.155978 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.898181915283203, "model_output": 4.8982, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4518 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4945 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2389 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2315 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1471 } ], "others": -0.0983, "total": 4.8982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.123634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119828 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053129 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.048914 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.029877 } ], "others_margin": -0.019875 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.9267075061798096, "model_output": 1.9267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2232 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1961 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 1.9267, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.150189 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115589 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.057247 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028939 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.024393 } ], "others_margin": 0.008107 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6891133189201355, "model_output": 0.6891, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1986 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.6891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.198614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026534 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02572 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.017887 } ], "others_margin": -0.018499 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.867100238800049, "model_output": 6.8671, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 6.8671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.039481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022579 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008639 } ], "others_margin": -0.002952 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0066, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0066, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0066, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0066, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.005, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.005, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7921, "fifa_rank": 11802.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.005, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0185, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9084, "tackles": 1.1923, "tackles_won": 0.7592, "clearances": 4.86, "aerial_won": 1.9117, "total_shots": 0.6838, "rating": 6.8671, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.9008, "accurate_pass": 55.0597, "duels_won": 3.3066, "total_long_balls": 5.268, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4687, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.493, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5666, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6492, "possession_lost": 5.1367, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6238, "aerial_lost": 1.2898, "total_contest": 0.1739, "won_contest": 0.1739, "ball_recovery": 3.6607, "challenges_lost": 0.6767, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 0.5, "blocks": 0.6817, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.005, "ball_carries": 21.4039, "total_progression": 95.1724, "progressive_carries": 1.1485, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0064, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0064, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0055, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.012, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Fernando Calero": { "player_id": 857205, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 183, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0099, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 66, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0387, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083221, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 59, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083330, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1459, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081800, "match_date": "2026-03-09", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1185, "combined_rank_score": 513.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 522.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7936, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sebastián Díaz", "ranking": 1180 }, { "player_name": "Jesse Lingard", "ranking": 1181 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 }, { "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking": 1187 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.997, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9869, "tackles": 1.2583, "tackles_won": 0.7749, "clearances": 4.7995, "aerial_won": 1.5906, "total_shots": 0.4886, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 49.1333, "accurate_pass": 44.09, "duels_won": 2.8171, "total_long_balls": 4.9385, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2208, "total_own_half_passes": 33.1197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0666, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0234, "crosses_total": 0.2533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1526, "touches": 60.2374, "possession_lost": 5.987, "dispossessed": 0.1526, "duels_lost": 3.6789, "aerial_lost": 1.5586, "total_contest": 0.1721, "won_contest": 0.0216, "ball_recovery": 3.8084, "challenges_lost": 0.7577, "fouls": 1.0594, "fouls_drawn": 0.7197, "blocks": 0.6241, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0259, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.3121, "total_progression": 54.472, "progressive_carries": 0.1644, "key_pass": 0.0652, "shots_off_target": 0.4729 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-09", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.4528, "aerialWon": 1.0079, "totalClearance_p90": 4.256, "totalTackle": 0.8284, "defensive_actions": 1.6975 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9868919253349304, "model_output": 0.9869, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.9869, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11824 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.020056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.016637 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013669 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.010602 } ], "others_margin": 0.00595 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2583085298538208, "model_output": 1.2583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1745 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1027 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0391 } ], "others": -0.1397, "total": 1.2583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118155 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.067825 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.049805 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.031776 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027555 } ], "others_margin": -0.105363 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.774894118309021, "model_output": 0.7749, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1096 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0286 } ], "others": -0.0963, "total": 0.7749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120749 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.072063 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.052683 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.049275 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032268 } ], "others_margin": -0.117225 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.7995452880859375, "model_output": 4.7995, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1749 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.1273 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1234 } ], "others": 0.3199, "total": 4.7995, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.039786 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.02881 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027936 } ], "others_margin": 0.068984 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.590634822845459, "model_output": 1.5906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1946 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1784 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1087 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0393 } ], "others": 0.0363, "total": 1.5906, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.152285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140497 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076812 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030265 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025581 } ], "others_margin": 0.023129 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4886222183704376, "model_output": 0.4886, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 0.4886, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05966 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015566 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013977 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009569 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009254 } ], "others_margin": -0.028304 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793637275695801, "model_output": 6.7936, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 6.7936, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.016652 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014011 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.012054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00889 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.00749 } ], "others_margin": -0.004358 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0296 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1185, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7726, "clearances": 4.7851, "aerial_won": 1.5859, "total_shots": 0.4872, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 48.9859, "accurate_pass": 43.9577, "duels_won": 2.8086, "total_long_balls": 4.9237, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.0203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9704, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9873, "crosses_total": 0.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.1521, "touches": 60.0567, "possession_lost": 5.969, "dispossessed": 0.1521, "duels_lost": 3.6679, "aerial_lost": 1.5539, "total_contest": 0.1716, "won_contest": 0.0215, "ball_recovery": 3.797, "challenges_lost": 0.7554, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 0.7175, "blocks": 0.6222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.0157, "big_chances_created": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.2692, "total_progression": 54.3086, "progressive_carries": 0.1639, "key_pass": 0.065, "shots_off_target": 0.4715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0099, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0079, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0174, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Rafa Garrido": { "player_id": 1595666, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 170, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0019, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1375, "combined_rank_score": 713.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.747, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rafa Garrido", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vitão", "ranking": 1370 }, { "player_name": "Jemmes", "ranking": 1371 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Muratbaev", "ranking": 1372 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jae Kim", "ranking": 1373 }, { "player_name": "Jung-min Lee", "ranking": 1374 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Mendoza", "ranking": 1376 }, { "player_name": "Peque Fernández", "ranking": 1377 }, { "player_name": "Javi Morcillo", "ranking": 1378 }, { "player_name": "Luis Pacheco", "ranking": 1379 }, { "player_name": "Fredy Noguera", "ranking": 1380 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0852, "tackles": 1.7117, "tackles_won": 1.0486, "clearances": 1.9421, "aerial_won": 0.6022, "total_shots": 0.3947, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 44.1257, "accurate_pass": 40.4224, "duels_won": 4.4133, "total_long_balls": 1.8256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8937, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0894, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8277, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.5948, "crosses_total": 2.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.2208, "touches": 66.2447, "possession_lost": 8.2421, "dispossessed": 0.1356, "duels_lost": 2.8741, "aerial_lost": 0.9212, "total_contest": 1.7322, "won_contest": 1.183, "ball_recovery": 4.8709, "challenges_lost": 0.4828, "fouls": 0.7854, "fouls_drawn": 1.693, "blocks": 0.9861, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2208, "assist_rate": 0.2208, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8472, "total_progression": 80.5158, "progressive_carries": 3.0973, "key_pass": 0.6292, "shots_off_target": 0.3947 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9062, "aerialWon": 0.1983, "totalClearance_p90": 2.278, "totalTackle": 1.4344, "defensive_actions": 2.4951 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0852054357528687, "model_output": 1.0852, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1192 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0381 } ], "others": 0.0905, "total": 1.0852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129707 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.056764 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041947 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037601 } ], "others_margin": 0.086975 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.711690068244934, "model_output": 1.7117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1787 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.014, "total": 1.7117, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120818 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.049591 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030247 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.013469 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011739 } ], "others_margin": 0.008168 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0485849380493164, "model_output": 1.0486, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1053 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0296 } ], "others": 0.0119, "total": 1.0486, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116208 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.039335 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.033681 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.032491 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028144 } ], "others_margin": 0.011501 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9421422481536865, "model_output": 1.9421, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5738 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3683 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3017 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2581 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1977 } ], "others": -0.5276, "total": 1.9421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.182899 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121189 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.098147 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.092351 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.077007 } ], "others_margin": -0.240349 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6021974086761475, "model_output": 0.6022, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5311 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1024 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1002 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0554 } ], "others": -0.1214, "total": 0.6022, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.487086 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.129014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126353 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.080131 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.073705 } ], "others_margin": -0.183722 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.394694983959198, "model_output": 0.3947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.3947, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.134332 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053309 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023658 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.021595 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009877 } ], "others_margin": -0.053912 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7469916343688965, "model_output": 6.747, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 6.747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01427 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01076 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.009919 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009771 } ], "others_margin": -0.019361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2191, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2191, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2191, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0262, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1375, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0019, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0018, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0026, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0767, "tackles": 1.6983, "tackles_won": 1.0404, "clearances": 1.927, "aerial_won": 0.5975, "total_shots": 0.3916, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 87.57, "total_pass": 43.7815, "accurate_pass": 40.1071, "duels_won": 4.3789, "total_long_balls": 1.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8867, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.673, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8566, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.4342, "crosses_total": 2.2372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2191, "touches": 65.728, "possession_lost": 8.1778, "dispossessed": 0.1345, "duels_lost": 2.8517, "aerial_lost": 0.914, "total_contest": 1.7187, "won_contest": 1.1738, "ball_recovery": 4.8329, "challenges_lost": 0.479, "fouls": 0.7793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6798, "blocks": 0.9784, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.7002, "total_progression": 79.8878, "progressive_carries": 3.0731, "key_pass": 0.6243, "shots_off_target": 0.3916, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0019, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 0.9524, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.2191, "provider_weight": 0.025, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.055, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 47, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1799 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.2423 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3488 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 45, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3644 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.8332 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7359 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6449 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3276, "combined_rank_score": 1220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0533, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Bueno", "ranking": 3273 }, { "player_name": "Hany Mukhtar", "ranking": 3274 }, { "player_name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ranking": 3275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 3280 }, { "player_name": "Beñat Prados", "ranking": 3281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9699, "goals_prevented": -0.0578, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.2333, "accurate_pass": 26.733, "total_long_balls": 14.8518, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5005, "touches": 47.4782, "clearances": 0.9133, "ball_recovery": 8.2157, "high_claims": 1.4306, "punches": 1.2667, "aerial_won": 0.3138, "sweeper_actions": 0.6595, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6595, "saves_inside_box": 2.3419, "possession_lost": 9.7065, "duels_won": 0.6157, "duels_lost": 0.2267, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.149, "fouls_drawn": 0.3019, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6071 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.5004, "save_contribution": 3.7596, "distribution_accuracy": 0.942, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 24.6072, "passValueNormalized": 0.067, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 26.2168 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9698805809020996, "model_output": 2.9699, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 2.9699, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.008909 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007897 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004853 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.004232 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.003053 } ], "others_margin": -0.003373 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.057773102074861526, "model_output": -0.0578, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0087, "total": -0.0578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014925 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.013725 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.013609 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.012739 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008918 } ], "others_margin": 0.008777 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.053277015686035, "model_output": 7.0533, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 7.0533, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015594 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012908 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012205 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010596 } ], "others_margin": 0.004013 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9467, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1478, "fouls_drawn": 0.2995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 420000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0500)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.05, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9467, "after": 2.9994 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2995, "after": 0.2845 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1478, "after": 0.1404 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.4, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4617 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.4, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.9, "after": 14.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.4, "after": 3.5 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.17, "after": 1.2 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3276, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.9994, "goals_prevented": -0.0573, "rating": 7.0533, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.9507, "accurate_pass": 26.5245, "total_long_balls": 14.736, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4576, "touches": 47.1079, "clearances": 0.9062, "ball_recovery": 8.1516, "high_claims": 1.4194, "punches": 1.2568, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "sweeper_actions": 0.6544, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6544, "saves_inside_box": 2.3236, "possession_lost": 9.6308, "duels_won": 0.6109, "duels_lost": 0.2249, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2845, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4152, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4617, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Pablo Martínez": { "player_id": 927066, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1046, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "creation_factor": 1.0128, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "expected_assists": 0.309, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.3682, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "expected_assists": 0.039, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.6553, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083676, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2582, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0921, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "expected_assists": 0.7169, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1083, "combined_rank_score": 444.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 490.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 399.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9035, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Davinson Sánchez", "ranking": 1078 }, { "player_name": "Robert Sánchez", "ranking": 1079 }, { "player_name": "Romelu Lukaku", "ranking": 1080 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Delgado", "ranking": 1081 }, { "player_name": "Kim Han-Seo", "ranking": 1082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ethan Espinoza", "ranking": 1084 }, { "player_name": "Ji-Min Rim", "ranking": 1085 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Bandeira", "ranking": 1086 }, { "player_name": "Guk-yeong Han", "ranking": 1087 }, { "player_name": "Ramiro Vaca", "ranking": 1088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.755, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9974, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Málaga", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Málaga, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.664, "expected_assists": 0.1451, "assists": 0.148, "assist_rate": 0.148, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.362, "total_shots": 1.0901, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.3456, "accurate_pass": 27.379, "duels_won": 1.7303, "total_long_balls": 3.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9748, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0843, "crosses_total": 6.0201, "crosses_accurate": 2.414, "touches": 47.6404, "possession_lost": 10.8847, "dispossessed": 0.4771, "duels_lost": 2.9544, "aerial_won": 0.4085, "aerial_lost": 0.16, "interceptions": 0.7977, "tackles_won": 0.4446, "tackles": 0.7759, "clearances": 1.1114, "total_contest": 0.6366, "won_contest": 0.2302, "challenges_lost": 0.8712, "fouls": 1.0615, "fouls_drawn": 0.3458, "blocks": 0.3458, "big_chances_created": 0.2858, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0212, "ball_carries": 11.4206, "total_progression": 34.3654, "progressive_carries": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.7281 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0534, "creative_index": 1.0362, "expectedGoals": 0.0378, "expectedAssists": 0.197, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2584 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.66400146484375, "model_output": 1.664, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1364 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1436 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0669 } ], "others": 0.2387, "total": 1.664, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.175082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130486 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10661 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.101195 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.045853 } ], "others_margin": 0.154895 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.14512035250663757, "model_output": 0.1451, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 0.1451, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.133172 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.119768 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118609 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.068727 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.033467 } ], "others_margin": 0.053666 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.14796790480613708, "model_output": 0.148, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0302, "total": 0.148, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.113849 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.107032 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.080922 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079484 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.078519 } ], "others_margin": 0.227475 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0842152088880539, "model_output": 0.0842, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.0842, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146404 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.092616 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.071082 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.030024 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.02793 } ], "others_margin": -0.097853 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07706771790981293, "model_output": 0.0771, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0771, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122504 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.113403 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.090011 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055424 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.052507 } ], "others_margin": -0.089311 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3620179295539856, "model_output": 0.362, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0176, "total": 0.362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138451 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054824 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041712 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038627 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024651 } ], "others_margin": 0.049737 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0900869369506836, "model_output": 1.0901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.153 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0611, "total": 1.0901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152963 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043354 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031622 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02276 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021702 } ], "others_margin": 0.061027 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.903503894805908, "model_output": 6.9035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 6.9035, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03234 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019881 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.013268 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.012782 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011187 } ], "others_margin": 0.000753 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "assists": 0.1476, "assist_rate": 0.1476, "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.3611, "total_shots": 1.0873, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0044, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7956, "tackles_won": 0.4434, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0587, "fouls_drawn": 0.3449, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.7262 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0028)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "assists": 0.1472, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0767, "shots_on_target": 0.3601, "total_shots": 1.0842, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.7262 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0028, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8977, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "assists": 0.1472, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0767, "shots_on_target": 0.3601, "total_shots": 1.0863, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.7262 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "assists": 0.1472, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.781, "skill_edge": -0.137, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4429, "defender_skill": 0.7474, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7474 } ], "xg_override": 0.0656 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4074, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0863, "after": 0.8484 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7262, "after": 0.5672 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3601, "after": 0.2812 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.084, "after": 0.0656 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0767, "after": 0.0599 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "creation_factor": 1.0128 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0656, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1447, "after": 0.1105 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "creation_factor": 1.0128, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1083, "fifa_rank": 399.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "creation_factor": 1.0128, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "scorer_weight": 0.0476, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0687, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.8484, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 32.2615, "accurate_pass": 27.3078, "duels_won": 1.7258, "total_long_balls": 3.3749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9697, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2601, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0477, "crosses_total": 6.0078, "crosses_accurate": 2.4077, "touches": 47.5165, "possession_lost": 10.8564, "dispossessed": 0.4759, "duels_lost": 2.9467, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1596, "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles_won": 0.4421, "tackles": 0.7739, "clearances": 1.1085, "total_contest": 0.6349, "won_contest": 0.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.8689, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 0.3449, "big_chances_created": 0.2851, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 11.3909, "total_progression": 34.276, "progressive_carries": 0.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.5672, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1046, "finishing_factor": 0.9507, "creation_factor": 1.0128, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1046, "assist_rate": 0.1472, "provider_weight": 0.1119, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.2461, "creation_factor": 1.0128, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Carlos Lopez": { "player_id": 1442178, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 184, "market_value": 95000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 9083, "combined_rank_score": 7736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 15175.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Lopez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lars-Jørgen Salvesen", "ranking": 9078 }, { "player_name": "Greg Docherty", "ranking": 9079 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wright", "ranking": 9080 }, { "player_name": "Stiven Muhlethaler", "ranking": 9081 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Thompson", "ranking": 9082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Osho", "ranking": 9084 }, { "player_name": "Sam Sutton", "ranking": 9085 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wharton", "ranking": 9086 }, { "player_name": "David Turnbull", "ranking": 9087 }, { "player_name": "Sam Smith", "ranking": 9088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€95,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 62.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 9083, "fifa_rank": 15175.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 62.0 } } ] }, "Adam Aznou": { "player_id": 1466124, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 178, "market_value": 6200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 5.1129, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6312, "combined_rank_score": 4601.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 9024.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7645, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adam Aznou", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Xavier Arreaga", "ranking": 6307 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Nunes", "ranking": 6308 }, { "player_name": "Tom Watson", "ranking": 6309 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Piña", "ranking": 6310 }, { "player_name": "Angus Thurgate", "ranking": 6311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fernando Meza", "ranking": 6313 }, { "player_name": "David Miculescu", "ranking": 6314 }, { "player_name": "Dino Beširović", "ranking": 6315 }, { "player_name": "Adama Traoré", "ranking": 6316 }, { "player_name": "Enrique Triverio", "ranking": 6317 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.728465634082903, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.30583934700376836, "market_value_adjustment": 0.993, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 13.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.31)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3925, "tackles": 0.5963, "tackles_won": 0.3189, "clearances": 0.923, "aerial_won": 0.4121, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 21.33, "total_pass": 9.0, "accurate_pass": 8.0, "duels_won": 4.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.0, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 5.0, "won_contest": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0, "total_progression": 63.5764, "progressive_carries": 2.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3758 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.0, "aerialWon": 1.0, "totalClearance_p90": 6.4286, "totalTackle": 2.0, "defensive_actions": 2.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.39245638251304626, "model_output": 0.3925, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4533 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0288, "total": 0.3925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.747717 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.099172 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.082694 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.050014 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047384 } ], "others_margin": 0.07607 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5963055491447449, "model_output": 0.5963, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8133 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 0.5963, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.878168 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.054332 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053408 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.047397 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.0433 } ], "others_margin": 0.025757 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.318857342004776, "model_output": 0.3189, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5004 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 0.3189, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.881507 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.060364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058802 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.058025 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.054381 } ], "others_margin": -0.101793 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9230383038520813, "model_output": 0.923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.211 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.235 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0596 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 0.923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.033067 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.213612 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.157698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069157 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.06395 } ], "others_margin": -0.04217 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4120537042617798, "model_output": 0.4121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8132 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0992 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0325 } ], "others": -0.0701, "total": 0.4121, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.892711 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.193428 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.109442 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.076256 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069845 } ], "others_margin": -0.157255 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37581709027290344, "model_output": 0.3758, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0381 } ], "others": 0.0395, "total": 0.3758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.136155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.094122 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.084686 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.049527 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.038053 } ], "others_margin": 0.039509 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764469623565674, "model_output": 6.7645, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0816, "total": 6.7645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.060299 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021286 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020193 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.019059 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019056 } ], "others_margin": -0.081622 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3897, "tackles": 0.5921, "tackles_won": 0.3166, "clearances": 0.9166, "aerial_won": 0.4092, "total_shots": 0.3732, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 21.33, "total_pass": 8.937, "accurate_pass": 7.944, "duels_won": 3.972, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.965, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.979, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.832, "possession_lost": 7.944, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.958, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.965, "won_contest": 0.993, "ball_recovery": 0.993, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.986, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.951, "total_progression": 63.1314, "progressive_carries": 1.986, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.3 to 13.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3811, "tackles_won": 0.2038, "clearances": 0.5899, "aerial_won": 0.2634, "total_shots": 0.2402, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 5.7521, "accurate_pass": 5.1129, "duels_won": 2.5565, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1956, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3388, "possession_lost": 5.1129, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8347, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.1956, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 0.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4738, "total_progression": 40.6328, "progressive_carries": 1.2782, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2402, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.73, "projection_minutes": 21.33, "minutes_scale": 0.6436, "appearance_probability": 0.306 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3811, "tackles_won": 0.2038, "clearances": 0.5899, "aerial_won": 0.2634, "total_shots": 0.2402, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 5.7521, "accurate_pass": 5.1129, "duels_won": 2.5565, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1956, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3388, "possession_lost": 5.1129, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8347, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.1956, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 0.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4738, "total_progression": 40.6328, "progressive_carries": 1.2782, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2402, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3811, "tackles_won": 0.2038, "clearances": 0.5899, "aerial_won": 0.2634, "total_shots": 0.2402, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 5.7521, "accurate_pass": 5.1129, "duels_won": 2.5565, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1956, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3388, "possession_lost": 5.1129, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8347, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.1956, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 0.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4738, "total_progression": 40.6328, "progressive_carries": 1.2782, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2402, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.306, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3811, "tackles_won": 0.2038, "clearances": 0.5899, "aerial_won": 0.2634, "total_shots": 0.2402, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 5.7521, "accurate_pass": 5.1129, "duels_won": 2.5565, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1956, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9174, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3388, "possession_lost": 5.1129, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8347, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.1956, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 0.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4738, "total_progression": 40.6328, "progressive_carries": 1.2782, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2402, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6312, "fifa_rank": 9024.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } } ] }, "Diego Murillo": { "player_id": 1410734, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 182, "market_value": 1600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 327, "combined_rank_score": 208.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 197.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 }, { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 323 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,600,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.4, "tackles": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "clearances": 2.5, "aerial_won": 2.1, "duels_won": 5.2, "total_pass": 42.0, "accurate_pass": 33.0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0, "crosses_total": 0.8, "crosses_accurate": 0.4, "touches": 58.0, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3.3, "aerial_lost": 1.9, "total_contest": 3.7, "won_contest": 2.1, "ball_recovery": 4.7, "challenges_lost": 0.9, "fouls": 0.9, "fouls_drawn": 0.6, "blocks": 0.6, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0.32, "shots_on_target": 0.14, "shots_off_target": 0.18, "big_chances_created": 0.04, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0.5, "ball_carries": 19.0, "total_progression": 56.0, "progressive_carries": 4.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2111, "tackles": 0.3318, "tackles_won": 0.196, "clearances": 0.377, "aerial_won": 0.3167, "duels_won": 0.7842, "total_pass": 6.3337, "accurate_pass": 4.9765, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 13.57, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1669, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9048, "crosses_total": 0.1206, "crosses_accurate": 0.0603, "touches": 8.7465, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.4976, "aerial_lost": 1.9, "total_contest": 0.558, "won_contest": 0.3167, "ball_recovery": 0.7088, "challenges_lost": 0.9, "fouls": 0.1357, "fouls_drawn": 0.0905, "blocks": 0.0905, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.0211, "shots_off_target": 0.0271, "big_chances_created": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 2.8652, "total_progression": 8.4449, "progressive_carries": 0.6032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1508, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2111, "tackles": 0.3318, "tackles_won": 0.196, "clearances": 0.377, "aerial_won": 0.3167, "duels_won": 0.7842, "total_pass": 6.3337, "accurate_pass": 4.9765, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 13.57, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1669, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9048, "crosses_total": 0.1206, "crosses_accurate": 0.0603, "touches": 8.7465, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.4976, "aerial_lost": 1.9, "total_contest": 0.558, "won_contest": 0.3167, "ball_recovery": 0.7088, "challenges_lost": 0.9, "fouls": 0.1357, "fouls_drawn": 0.0905, "blocks": 0.0905, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.0211, "shots_off_target": 0.0271, "big_chances_created": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 2.8652, "total_progression": 8.4449, "progressive_carries": 0.6032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2111, "tackles": 0.3318, "tackles_won": 0.196, "clearances": 0.377, "aerial_won": 0.3167, "duels_won": 0.7842, "total_pass": 6.3337, "accurate_pass": 4.9765, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 13.57, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1669, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9048, "crosses_total": 0.1206, "crosses_accurate": 0.0603, "touches": 8.7465, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.4976, "aerial_lost": 1.9, "total_contest": 0.558, "won_contest": 0.3167, "ball_recovery": 0.7088, "challenges_lost": 0.9, "fouls": 0.1357, "fouls_drawn": 0.0905, "blocks": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.0211, "shots_off_target": 0.0271, "big_chances_created": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 2.8652, "total_progression": 8.4449, "progressive_carries": 0.6032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2111, "tackles": 0.3318, "tackles_won": 0.196, "clearances": 0.377, "aerial_won": 0.3167, "duels_won": 0.7842, "total_pass": 6.3337, "accurate_pass": 4.9765, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 13.57, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1669, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9048, "crosses_total": 0.1206, "crosses_accurate": 0.0603, "touches": 8.7465, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.4976, "aerial_lost": 1.9, "total_contest": 0.558, "won_contest": 0.3167, "ball_recovery": 0.7088, "challenges_lost": 0.9, "fouls": 0.1357, "fouls_drawn": 0.0905, "blocks": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.0211, "shots_off_target": 0.0271, "big_chances_created": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 2.8652, "total_progression": 8.4449, "progressive_carries": 0.6032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 327, "fifa_rank": 197.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "player_id": 857671, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, "combined_rank_score": 1806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6674, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 }, { "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking": 3803 }, { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 }, { "player_name": "Darío Osorio", "ranking": 3809 }, { "player_name": "Josh Sargent", "ranking": 3810 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajradinović", "ranking": 3811 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.147767132293673, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5067166878315306, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9942, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2173, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "assists": 0.0234, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.038, "shots_on_target": 0.0811, "total_shots": 0.2538, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 6.0, "accurate_pass": 5.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.0, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "tackles": 1.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 4.2118, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1727 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.0003, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0005, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2173301875591278, "model_output": 0.2173, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4531 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.07, "total": 0.2173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708091 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.13454 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.114244 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.090403 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.086934 } ], "others_margin": -0.278937 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.014401228167116642, "model_output": 0.0144, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.628119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.251696 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.228712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.123464 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.082422 } ], "others_margin": -0.468428 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.023378213867545128, "model_output": 0.0234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.0234, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.279157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.217582 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.203522 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.099279 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.086897 } ], "others_margin": -0.430441 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02214127406477928, "model_output": 0.0221, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.0221, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.409949 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.136709 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.112909 } ], "others_margin": -0.269239 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03799067437648773, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.454374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.251355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.161859 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.107437 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.066049 } ], "others_margin": 0.095608 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08105263859033585, "model_output": 0.0811, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1483 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0811, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.607223 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.354341 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.279253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.202458 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.137671 } ], "others_margin": -0.085364 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2537994086742401, "model_output": 0.2538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2383 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0282 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": 0.2538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355672 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.23834 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042039 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028228 } ], "others_margin": -0.042779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6674418449401855, "model_output": 6.6674, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 6.6674, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049731 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018831 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012935 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012334 } ], "others_margin": -0.013864 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2161, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.0806, "total_shots": 0.2523, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9884, "total_progression": 4.1874, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0311, "after": 0.012 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.0078 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "scorer_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0216, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "provider_weight": 0.0092, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0202, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Izan Merino": { "player_id": 1493488, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 186, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.015, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 3.3028, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5154, "combined_rank_score": 3350.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 5916.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7309, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Izan Merino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Krasso", "ranking": 5149 }, { "player_name": "Abdallah Sima", "ranking": 5150 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Okoh", "ranking": 5151 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Sy", "ranking": 5152 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Hidalgo", "ranking": 5153 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Louis Mouton", "ranking": 5155 }, { "player_name": "Yassin Belkhdim", "ranking": 5156 }, { "player_name": "Erik Janža", "ranking": 5157 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Cornejo", "ranking": 5158 }, { "player_name": "Jacques Ekomié", "ranking": 5159 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.060466051098082, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5027484568680947, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9943, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (7 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2775, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0256, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.0539, "total_shots": 0.1952, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 20.95, "total_pass": 35.4488, "accurate_pass": 33.2484, "duels_won": 0.5916, "total_long_balls": 2.7047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9605, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6935, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3355, "crosses_total": 0.2208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.3229, "possession_lost": 3.1545, "dispossessed": 0.1877, "duels_lost": 1.621, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.098, "interceptions": 0.2818, "tackles_won": 0.3488, "tackles": 0.4321, "clearances": 1.2473, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5765, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.1595, "blocks": 0.0833, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.646, "total_progression": 31.6046, "progressive_carries": 0.336, "shots_off_target": 0.1413 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.098, "creative_index": 0.1402, "expectedGoals": 0.0046, "expectedAssists": 0.0147, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.27748239040374756, "model_output": 0.2775, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0623, "total": 0.2775, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.618484 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.113697 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.103731 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.084708 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04572 } ], "others_margin": -0.202468 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019019970670342445, "model_output": 0.019, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.019, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.575322 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.205739 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.154684 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.145396 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.079795 } ], "others_margin": -0.343728 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.025615589693188667, "model_output": 0.0256, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 0.0256, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.284096 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.235745 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.174123 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.111992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.090242 } ], "others_margin": -0.329284 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.014285368844866753, "model_output": 0.0143, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0009 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.0143, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.467655 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.29412 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124637 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043637 } ], "others_margin": -0.386349 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.028373192995786667, "model_output": 0.0284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446235 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.223932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.197277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.102516 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.092861 } ], "others_margin": -0.174544 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.05385439097881317, "model_output": 0.0539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0524 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.0539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.627058 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.35865 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.268736 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.191798 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.045215 } ], "others_margin": -0.308327 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19516298174858093, "model_output": 0.1952, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3288 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.1344, "total": 0.1952, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328781 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228346 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040404 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028743 } ], "others_margin": -0.13442 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730945110321045, "model_output": 6.7309, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0921 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 6.7309, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039884 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033794 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01964 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019107 } ], "others_margin": -0.035571 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9943, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0535, "total_shots": 0.1941, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 20.95, "total_pass": 35.2467, "accurate_pass": 33.0589, "duels_won": 0.5882, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9493, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8051, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2538, "crosses_total": 0.2195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.0988, "possession_lost": 3.1365, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 1.6118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0974, "interceptions": 0.2802, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 0.4296, "clearances": 1.2402, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5732, "fouls": 0.7546, "fouls_drawn": 0.1586, "blocks": 0.0828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5853, "total_progression": 31.4245, "progressive_carries": 0.3341, "shots_off_target": 0.1405 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9943, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2905, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "expected_goals": 0.015, "goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2044, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 37.115, "accurate_pass": 34.8112, "duels_won": 0.6194, "total_long_balls": 2.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0526, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6191, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8019, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0093, "crosses_total": 0.2311, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.1713, "possession_lost": 3.3028, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 1.6972, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0974, "interceptions": 0.2951, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "tackles": 0.4524, "clearances": 1.3059, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5732, "fouls": 0.7946, "fouls_drawn": 0.167, "blocks": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1464, "total_progression": 33.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.3518, "shots_off_target": 0.1479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.06, "projection_minutes": 20.95, "minutes_scale": 1.053, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2905, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "expected_goals": 0.015, "goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2044, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 37.115, "accurate_pass": 34.8112, "duels_won": 0.6194, "total_long_balls": 2.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0526, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6191, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8019, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0093, "crosses_total": 0.2311, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.1713, "possession_lost": 3.3028, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 1.6972, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0974, "interceptions": 0.2951, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "tackles": 0.4524, "clearances": 1.3059, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5732, "fouls": 0.7946, "fouls_drawn": 0.167, "blocks": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1464, "total_progression": 33.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.3518, "shots_off_target": 0.1479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2905, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.015, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2044, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 37.115, "accurate_pass": 34.8112, "duels_won": 0.6194, "total_long_balls": 2.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0526, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6191, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8019, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0093, "crosses_total": 0.2311, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.1713, "possession_lost": 3.3028, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 1.6972, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0974, "interceptions": 0.2951, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "tackles": 0.4524, "clearances": 1.3059, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5732, "fouls": 0.7946, "fouls_drawn": 0.167, "blocks": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1464, "total_progression": 33.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.3518, "shots_off_target": 0.1479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.503, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2905, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.015, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2044, "rating": 6.7309, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 37.115, "accurate_pass": 34.8112, "duels_won": 0.6194, "total_long_balls": 2.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0526, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6191, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8019, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0093, "crosses_total": 0.2311, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.1713, "possession_lost": 3.3028, "dispossessed": 0.1866, "duels_lost": 1.6972, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0974, "interceptions": 0.2951, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "tackles": 0.4524, "clearances": 1.3059, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5732, "fouls": 0.7946, "fouls_drawn": 0.167, "blocks": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1464, "total_progression": 33.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.3518, "shots_off_target": 0.1479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5154, "fifa_rank": 5916.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4788, "combined_rank_score": 2863.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6315, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 }, { "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking": 4785 }, { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 }, { "player_name": "Auston Trusty", "ranking": 4791 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 4792 }, { "player_name": "Reo Hatate", "ranking": 4793 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (8 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2212, "total_shots": 0.528, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "key_pass": 0.4111, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 24.96, "total_pass": 13.1049, "accurate_pass": 10.1952, "duels_won": 2.8177, "total_long_balls": 0.9278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3865, "crosses_total": 1.6714, "crosses_accurate": 0.253, "touches": 22.6702, "possession_lost": 8.0586, "dispossessed": 0.5825, "duels_lost": 3.9184, "aerial_lost": 0.4946, "total_contest": 2.1426, "won_contest": 0.9085, "ball_recovery": 1.5061, "challenges_lost": 1.1028, "fouls": 0.5045, "fouls_drawn": 1.3856, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3328, "tackles_won": 0.3308, "tackles": 0.5235, "clearances": 0.0915, "blocks": 0.0915, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2062, "ball_carries": 8.8551, "total_progression": 37.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.8577, "shots_off_target": 0.3068 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.6529, "expectedGoals": 0.0209, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.3865, "accuratePass": 10.1952, "totalShots": 0.6201 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04925883188843727, "model_output": 0.0493, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 0.0493, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52736 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232915 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.116596 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.067064 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.065585 } ], "others_margin": -0.379231 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05907302349805832, "model_output": 0.0591, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0844 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0591, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535915 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178007 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.101566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096951 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.069602 } ], "others_margin": -0.254153 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22117368876934052, "model_output": 0.2212, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2045 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.2212, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478545 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.097556 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.091622 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068884 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050342 } ], "others_margin": -0.101309 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5279274582862854, "model_output": 0.5279, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1429 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.1271, "total": 0.5279, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.142908 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053206 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.045694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024072 } ], "others_margin": -0.127128 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.046265389770269394, "model_output": 0.0463, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0019 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.0463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370631 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.06676 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044648 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043507 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.041165 } ], "others_margin": 0.149563 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4110530912876129, "model_output": 0.4111, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2464 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0247, "total": 0.4111, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455474 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073234 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037109 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.033849 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023331 } ], "others_margin": 0.061728 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.63153600692749, "model_output": 6.6315, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0647 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0641, "total": 6.6315, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064744 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018889 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012002 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010382 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010163 } ], "others_margin": -0.064052 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.0586, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.5239, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4078, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 24.96, "total_pass": 13.0027, "accurate_pass": 10.1157, "duels_won": 2.7957, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3211, "crosses_total": 1.6584, "crosses_accurate": 0.251, "touches": 22.4934, "possession_lost": 7.9957, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.8878, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 0.9014, "ball_recovery": 1.4944, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5006, "fouls_drawn": 1.3748, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3302, "tackles_won": 0.3282, "tackles": 0.5194, "clearances": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0908, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.786, "total_progression": 37.1524, "progressive_carries": 1.8432, "shots_off_target": 0.3044 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goals": 0.0594, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.96, "minutes_scale": 1.0133, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goals": 0.0594, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0496, "after": 0.0212 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0465, "after": 0.0199 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4788, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "scorer_weight": 0.0233, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.035, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Juan Cruz": { "player_id": 936234, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4217, "combined_rank_score": 2245.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3532.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6421, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Sanson", "ranking": 4215 }, { "player_name": "Hamari Traoré", "ranking": 4216 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maxime Lopez", "ranking": 4218 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Martínez", "ranking": 4219 }, { "player_name": "Haris Belkebla", "ranking": 4220 }, { "player_name": "Renato Sanches", "ranking": 4221 }, { "player_name": "Yusuf Sarı", "ranking": 4222 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0589, "goals": 0.0543, "goal_rate": 0.0543, "shots_on_target": 0.2567, "total_shots": 0.5554, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3466, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 6.3635, "accurate_pass": 5.5962, "duels_won": 0.6122, "total_long_balls": 0.7673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2267, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4225, "crosses_total": 1.4749, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3836, "possession_lost": 3.7087, "dispossessed": 0.6462, "duels_lost": 1.0656, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8049, "challenges_lost": 0.2267, "fouls": 0.1927, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4194, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0346, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7273, "total_progression": 29.9771, "progressive_carries": 0.96, "shots_off_target": 0.2987 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.1558, "expectedGoals": 0.0124, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.2978, "accuratePass": 7.0318, "totalShots": 0.434 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05894352123141289, "model_output": 0.0589, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0788 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.508655 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.210627 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.105991 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.060907 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054323 } ], "others_margin": -0.268755 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.054333899170160294, "model_output": 0.0543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0212, "total": 0.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.523853 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181986 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.113962 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.092622 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080099 } ], "others_margin": -0.327296 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.25669920444488525, "model_output": 0.2567, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.2567, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.411188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090111 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05677 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04815 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.042177 } ], "others_margin": -0.090904 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5553805232048035, "model_output": 0.5554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1491 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0311 } ], "others": -0.0691, "total": 0.5554, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493659 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149096 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.042751 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.032642 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031096 } ], "others_margin": -0.069215 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03953132405877113, "model_output": 0.0395, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.0395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.309624 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.108691 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.102645 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.057461 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.05252 } ], "others_margin": 0.04075 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34664639830589294, "model_output": 0.3466, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2563 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.3466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478938 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059913 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055293 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.038982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033333 } ], "others_margin": 0.002471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.642139911651611, "model_output": 6.6421, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0579, "total": 6.6421, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054908 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022735 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013066 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010713 } ], "others_margin": -0.057909 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2545, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3437, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 6.31, "accurate_pass": 5.5492, "duels_won": 0.6071, "total_long_balls": 0.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2248, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3854, "crosses_total": 1.4625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.288, "possession_lost": 3.6775, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.0566, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7981, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.1911, "fouls_drawn": 0.1911, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4159, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.696, "total_progression": 29.7253, "progressive_carries": 0.9519, "shots_off_target": 0.2962 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 21.25, "minutes_scale": 1.1902, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.0297 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0467, "after": 0.0199 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4217, "fifa_rank": 3532.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "scorer_weight": 0.0284, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0409, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.035, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Juan Cruz": { "player_id": 936234, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4217, "combined_rank_score": 2245.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3532.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6421, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Sanson", "ranking": 4215 }, { "player_name": "Hamari Traoré", "ranking": 4216 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maxime Lopez", "ranking": 4218 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Martínez", "ranking": 4219 }, { "player_name": "Haris Belkebla", "ranking": 4220 }, { "player_name": "Renato Sanches", "ranking": 4221 }, { "player_name": "Yusuf Sarı", "ranking": 4222 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0589, "goals": 0.0543, "goal_rate": 0.0543, "shots_on_target": 0.2567, "total_shots": 0.5554, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3466, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 6.3635, "accurate_pass": 5.5962, "duels_won": 0.6122, "total_long_balls": 0.7673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2267, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4225, "crosses_total": 1.4749, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3836, "possession_lost": 3.7087, "dispossessed": 0.6462, "duels_lost": 1.0656, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8049, "challenges_lost": 0.2267, "fouls": 0.1927, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4194, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0346, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7273, "total_progression": 29.9771, "progressive_carries": 0.96, "shots_off_target": 0.2987 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.1558, "expectedGoals": 0.0124, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.2978, "accuratePass": 7.0318, "totalShots": 0.434 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05894352123141289, "model_output": 0.0589, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0788 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.508655 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.210627 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.105991 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.060907 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054323 } ], "others_margin": -0.268755 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.054333899170160294, "model_output": 0.0543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0212, "total": 0.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.523853 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181986 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.113962 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.092622 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080099 } ], "others_margin": -0.327296 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.25669920444488525, "model_output": 0.2567, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.2567, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.411188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090111 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05677 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04815 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.042177 } ], "others_margin": -0.090904 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5553805232048035, "model_output": 0.5554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1491 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0311 } ], "others": -0.0691, "total": 0.5554, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493659 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149096 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.042751 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.032642 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031096 } ], "others_margin": -0.069215 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03953132405877113, "model_output": 0.0395, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.0395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.309624 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.108691 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.102645 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.057461 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.05252 } ], "others_margin": 0.04075 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34664639830589294, "model_output": 0.3466, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2563 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.3466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478938 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059913 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055293 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.038982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033333 } ], "others_margin": 0.002471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.642139911651611, "model_output": 6.6421, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0579, "total": 6.6421, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054908 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022735 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013066 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010713 } ], "others_margin": -0.057909 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2545, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3437, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 6.31, "accurate_pass": 5.5492, "duels_won": 0.6071, "total_long_balls": 0.7609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2248, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3854, "crosses_total": 1.4625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.288, "possession_lost": 3.6775, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.0566, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7981, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.1911, "fouls_drawn": 0.1911, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4159, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.696, "total_progression": 29.7253, "progressive_carries": 0.9519, "shots_off_target": 0.2962 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 21.25, "minutes_scale": 1.1902, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.0297 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0467, "after": 0.0199 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4217, "fifa_rank": 3532.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "scorer_weight": 0.0284, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0409, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "total_shots": 0.6555, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4091, "rating": 6.6421, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.3525, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.035, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4788, "combined_rank_score": 2863.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6315, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 }, { "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking": 4785 }, { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 }, { "player_name": "Auston Trusty", "ranking": 4791 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 4792 }, { "player_name": "Reo Hatate", "ranking": 4793 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (8 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2212, "total_shots": 0.528, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "key_pass": 0.4111, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 24.96, "total_pass": 13.1049, "accurate_pass": 10.1952, "duels_won": 2.8177, "total_long_balls": 0.9278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3865, "crosses_total": 1.6714, "crosses_accurate": 0.253, "touches": 22.6702, "possession_lost": 8.0586, "dispossessed": 0.5825, "duels_lost": 3.9184, "aerial_lost": 0.4946, "total_contest": 2.1426, "won_contest": 0.9085, "ball_recovery": 1.5061, "challenges_lost": 1.1028, "fouls": 0.5045, "fouls_drawn": 1.3856, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3328, "tackles_won": 0.3308, "tackles": 0.5235, "clearances": 0.0915, "blocks": 0.0915, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2062, "ball_carries": 8.8551, "total_progression": 37.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.8577, "shots_off_target": 0.3068 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.6529, "expectedGoals": 0.0209, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.3865, "accuratePass": 10.1952, "totalShots": 0.6201 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04925883188843727, "model_output": 0.0493, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 0.0493, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52736 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232915 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.116596 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.067064 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.065585 } ], "others_margin": -0.379231 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05907302349805832, "model_output": 0.0591, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0844 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0591, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535915 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178007 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.101566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096951 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.069602 } ], "others_margin": -0.254153 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22117368876934052, "model_output": 0.2212, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2045 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.2212, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478545 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.097556 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.091622 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068884 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050342 } ], "others_margin": -0.101309 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5279274582862854, "model_output": 0.5279, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1429 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.1271, "total": 0.5279, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.142908 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053206 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.045694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024072 } ], "others_margin": -0.127128 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.046265389770269394, "model_output": 0.0463, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0019 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.0463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370631 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.06676 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044648 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043507 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.041165 } ], "others_margin": 0.149563 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4110530912876129, "model_output": 0.4111, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2464 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0247, "total": 0.4111, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455474 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073234 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037109 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.033849 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023331 } ], "others_margin": 0.061728 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.63153600692749, "model_output": 6.6315, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0647 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0641, "total": 6.6315, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064744 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018889 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012002 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010382 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010163 } ], "others_margin": -0.064052 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.0586, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.5239, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4078, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 24.96, "total_pass": 13.0027, "accurate_pass": 10.1157, "duels_won": 2.7957, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3211, "crosses_total": 1.6584, "crosses_accurate": 0.251, "touches": 22.4934, "possession_lost": 7.9957, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.8878, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 0.9014, "ball_recovery": 1.4944, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5006, "fouls_drawn": 1.3748, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3302, "tackles_won": 0.3282, "tackles": 0.5194, "clearances": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0908, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.786, "total_progression": 37.1524, "progressive_carries": 1.8432, "shots_off_target": 0.3044 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goals": 0.0594, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.96, "minutes_scale": 1.0133, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goals": 0.0594, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0496, "after": 0.0212 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0465, "after": 0.0199 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4788, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "scorer_weight": 0.0233, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.5309, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.4132, "rating": 6.6315, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 13.1758, "accurate_pass": 10.2503, "duels_won": 2.8329, "total_long_balls": 0.9329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7105, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4319, "crosses_total": 1.6805, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 22.7928, "possession_lost": 8.1021, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 3.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.4907, "total_contest": 2.1542, "won_contest": 0.9134, "ball_recovery": 1.5143, "challenges_lost": 1.0942, "fouls": 0.5073, "fouls_drawn": 1.3931, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3346, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.5263, "clearances": 0.092, "blocks": 0.092, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 8.9029, "total_progression": 37.6469, "progressive_carries": 1.8677, "shots_off_target": 0.3085, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0208, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0195, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.035, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "player_id": 857671, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, "combined_rank_score": 1806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6674, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 }, { "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking": 3803 }, { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 }, { "player_name": "Darío Osorio", "ranking": 3809 }, { "player_name": "Josh Sargent", "ranking": 3810 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajradinović", "ranking": 3811 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.147767132293673, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5067166878315306, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9942, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2173, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "assists": 0.0234, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.038, "shots_on_target": 0.0811, "total_shots": 0.2538, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 6.0, "accurate_pass": 5.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.0, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "tackles": 1.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 4.2118, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1727 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.0003, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0005, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2173301875591278, "model_output": 0.2173, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4531 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.07, "total": 0.2173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708091 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.13454 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.114244 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.090403 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.086934 } ], "others_margin": -0.278937 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.014401228167116642, "model_output": 0.0144, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.628119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.251696 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.228712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.123464 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.082422 } ], "others_margin": -0.468428 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.023378213867545128, "model_output": 0.0234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.0234, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.279157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.217582 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.203522 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.099279 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.086897 } ], "others_margin": -0.430441 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02214127406477928, "model_output": 0.0221, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.0221, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.409949 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.136709 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.112909 } ], "others_margin": -0.269239 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03799067437648773, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.454374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.251355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.161859 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.107437 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.066049 } ], "others_margin": 0.095608 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08105263859033585, "model_output": 0.0811, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1483 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0811, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.607223 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.354341 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.279253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.202458 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.137671 } ], "others_margin": -0.085364 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2537994086742401, "model_output": 0.2538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2383 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0282 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": 0.2538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355672 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.23834 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042039 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028228 } ], "others_margin": -0.042779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6674418449401855, "model_output": 6.6674, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 6.6674, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049731 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018831 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012935 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012334 } ], "others_margin": -0.013864 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2161, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.0806, "total_shots": 0.2523, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9884, "total_progression": 4.1874, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 0.8509, xG scale 0.7639, xA scale 0.7639, team xA 0.50 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8509, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6556, "team_expected_assists": 0.5008, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7705, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7639, "xa_scale": 0.7639, "opponent_lambda": 1.505, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0311, "after": 0.012 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.0078 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "scorer_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.6936, "weight_share": 0.0216, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3054, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0534, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.3566, "rating": 6.6674, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2427, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0077, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "provider_weight": 0.0092, "squad_weight_total": 0.4548, "weight_share": 0.0202, "creation_factor": 1.1795, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.65, "expected_assists": 0.5, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 426, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "player_id": 823622, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 181, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2939, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2813, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1265, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8269, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5377, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.09, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1853, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1597, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1764, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.2839, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 31, "combined_rank_score": 26.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 40.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9568, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joshua Kimmich", "ranking": 26 }, { "player_name": "Ljupche Doriev", "ranking": 27 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Romo", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Michael Olise", "ranking": 29 }, { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 30 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 32 }, { "player_name": "Fermín López", "ranking": 33 }, { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 34 }, { "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking": 35 }, { "player_name": "Remo Freuler", "ranking": 36 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 268.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.6666666666666666, "shots_per90": 2.35, "shots_on_target_pct": 57.1, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.6666666666666666)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2587, "goals": 0.2586, "goal_rate": 0.2586, "shots_on_target": 0.7284, "total_shots": 2.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.5882, "accurate_pass": 19.1483, "duels_won": 3.682, "total_long_balls": 1.1278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7285, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5279, "crosses_total": 0.326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0972, "touches": 38.4128, "possession_lost": 10.9126, "dispossessed": 1.0558, "duels_lost": 4.0637, "aerial_lost": 0.8769, "total_contest": 1.3204, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 2.9339, "challenges_lost": 0.4581, "fouls": 0.8595, "fouls_drawn": 1.1682, "assists": 0.1638, "assist_rate": 0.1638, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.8046, "tackles": 0.9832, "clearances": 0.3032, "blocks": 0.0258, "big_chances_created": 0.1742, "big_chances_missed": 0.6672, "xgot": 0.2477, "offsides": 0.1352, "ball_carries": 12.6601, "total_progression": 58.4512, "progressive_carries": 3.0263, "shots_off_target": 1.2891 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 12.9323, "expectedGoals": 0.3233, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.4856, "accuratePass": 15.6044, "totalShots": 1.7989 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2587318420410156, "model_output": 0.2587, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.037, "total": 0.2587, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.257048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.149619 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.091899 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.048133 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.040724 } ], "others_margin": -0.133671 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2586011588573456, "model_output": 0.2586, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.2586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261079 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.154339 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.123241 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.082228 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.046881 } ], "others_margin": -0.016509 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7283759117126465, "model_output": 0.7284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1565 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0313 } ], "others": 0.0389, "total": 0.7284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.255512 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.096175 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.091045 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047915 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.046518 } ], "others_margin": 0.054626 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.017524480819702, "model_output": 2.0175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5097 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1453 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0327 } ], "others": -0.0829, "total": 2.0175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.509703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.145272 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061819 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042486 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.032698 } ], "others_margin": -0.082897 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09822104871273041, "model_output": 0.0982, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 0.0982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.17558 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.086649 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.052136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.035351 } ], "others_margin": 0.021607 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0347422361373901, "model_output": 1.0347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1918 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 1.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.250597 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.065639 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049319 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.038548 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029979 } ], "others_margin": -0.004467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9567999839782715, "model_output": 6.9568, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0432, "total": 6.9568, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.06756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059856 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.017544 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.014871 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013316 } ], "others_margin": 0.043282 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2603, "goals": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.2602, "shots_on_target": 0.7327, "total_shots": 2.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8647, "fouls_drawn": 1.1752, "assists": 0.1648, "assist_rate": 0.1648, "interceptions": 0.3598, "tackles_won": 0.8094, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.6712, "xgot": 0.2492, "offsides": 0.136, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.2968 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2603, "goals": 0.2566, "goal_rate": 0.2566, "shots_on_target": 0.7388, "total_shots": 2.03, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assists": 0.1706, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.6712, "xgot": 0.2492, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.2968 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8763, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1752, "after": 1.1872 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8094, "after": 0.7982 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7327, "after": 0.7388 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1648, "after": 0.1706 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2603, "goals": 0.2566, "goal_rate": 0.2566, "shots_on_target": 0.7388, "total_shots": 2.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assists": 0.1706, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.6712, "xgot": 0.2492, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.2968 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2999, "goals": 0.2957, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assists": 0.1706, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2871, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "skill_edge": 0.1155, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "market_value": 1000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2999 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0356, "after": 2.3454 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2968, "after": 1.4942 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7388, "after": 0.8512 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.6712, "after": 0.7734 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2603, "after": 0.2999 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2566, "after": 0.2957 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2492, "after": 0.2871 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2999, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2871, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2939, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2813, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2999, "after": 0.2939 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0988, "after": 0.1352 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2939, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2813, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 31, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2939, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2813, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2546, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "scorer_weight": 0.2904, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.1731, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2939, "goal_rate": 0.2957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8512, "total_shots": 2.3454, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "key_pass": 1.041, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7357, "accurate_pass": 19.2632, "duels_won": 3.7041, "total_long_balls": 1.1346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7329, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5971, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.6433, "possession_lost": 10.9781, "dispossessed": 1.0621, "duels_lost": 4.0881, "aerial_lost": 0.8822, "total_contest": 1.3283, "won_contest": 0.4812, "ball_recovery": 2.9515, "challenges_lost": 0.4608, "fouls": 0.8608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1872, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3589, "tackles_won": 0.7982, "tackles": 0.9891, "clearances": 0.305, "blocks": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.1752, "big_chances_missed": 0.7734, "xgot": 0.2813, "offsides": 0.1341, "ball_carries": 12.7361, "total_progression": 58.8019, "progressive_carries": 3.0445, "shots_off_target": 1.4942, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1265, "finishing_factor": 0.988, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1706, "provider_weight": 0.169, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.1613, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "player_id": 966862, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 174, "market_value": 17200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.143, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.132, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1339, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1332, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2601, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0924, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0292, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1694, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.5795, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1136, "combined_rank_score": 550.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 589.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8369, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ander Barrenetxea", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ousmane Diomande", "ranking": 1131 }, { "player_name": "Rui Silva", "ranking": 1132 }, { "player_name": "Abror Karimov", "ranking": 1133 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Guerrero", "ranking": 1134 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Urzi", "ranking": 1135 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Youstin Salas", "ranking": 1137 }, { "player_name": "Jegal Jae-min", "ranking": 1138 }, { "player_name": "Jin-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1139 }, { "player_name": "Imeda Ashortia", "ranking": 1140 }, { "player_name": "Sunnatilla Abdullazhonov", "ranking": 1141 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 214.0, "goals_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.68, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.4166666666666667, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1392, "goals": 0.2106, "goal_rate": 0.2106, "shots_on_target": 0.4852, "total_shots": 1.5005, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 1.0849, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.0234, "accurate_pass": 19.3407, "duels_won": 3.8709, "total_long_balls": 1.0921, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7806, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1709, "crosses_total": 2.5341, "crosses_accurate": 0.3639, "touches": 41.9086, "possession_lost": 12.5826, "dispossessed": 1.5384, "duels_lost": 5.5958, "aerial_lost": 0.3588, "total_contest": 3.1681, "won_contest": 1.7694, "ball_recovery": 3.5728, "challenges_lost": 0.8692, "fouls": 1.4699, "fouls_drawn": 0.9279, "assists": 0.2436, "assist_rate": 0.2436, "interceptions": 0.5353, "tackles_won": 0.5002, "tackles": 0.8877, "clearances": 0.7086, "blocks": 0.2331, "big_chances_created": 0.1517, "big_chances_missed": 0.0899, "xgot": 0.1278, "offsides": 0.2897, "ball_carries": 13.5034, "total_progression": 53.3436, "progressive_carries": 2.4006, "shots_off_target": 1.0153 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.9442, "expectedGoals": 0.0872, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.0137, "accuratePass": 16.3739, "totalShots": 1.2672 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13923195004463196, "model_output": 0.1392, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0339, "total": 0.1392, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271263 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.207352 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.090067 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.063552 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043081 } ], "others_margin": -0.216908 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.21056051552295685, "model_output": 0.2106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0672 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.2106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.285553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178718 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.073917 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.056743 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039261 } ], "others_margin": -0.015592 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4851689636707306, "model_output": 0.4852, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1722 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0721 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0498 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": -0.0484, "total": 0.4852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.277892 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.107111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.081265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059176 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.037781 } ], "others_margin": -0.095268 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5004472732543945, "model_output": 1.5004, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0576 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0569 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0462 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 1.5004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.422943 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130189 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057622 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.056886 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.046152 } ], "others_margin": -0.005486 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1041586697101593, "model_output": 0.1042, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": 0.005, "total": 0.1042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.180869 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.132593 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.121162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040676 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039088 } ], "others_margin": 0.047458 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0848807096481323, "model_output": 1.0849, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": 0.0559, "total": 1.0849, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.207217 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.135219 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05827 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041705 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.018272 } ], "others_margin": 0.052793 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.836941719055176, "model_output": 6.8369, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0091, "total": 6.8369, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060326 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02572 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.023187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016155 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014191 } ], "others_margin": 0.009045 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2113, "shots_on_target": 0.4869, "total_shots": 1.5058, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.543, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.475, "fouls_drawn": 0.9311, "assists": 0.2445, "assist_rate": 0.2445, "interceptions": 0.5372, "tackles_won": 0.502, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.1282, "offsides": 0.2907, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0189 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17200000, "quality_factor": 0.6027, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.2127, "goal_rate": 0.2127, "shots_on_target": 0.4849, "total_shots": 1.5033, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.1282, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0189 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7772, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.543, "after": 2.5356 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5372, "after": 0.5305 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.2127, "goal_rate": 0.2127, "shots_on_target": 0.4849, "total_shots": 1.5038, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.1282, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0189 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1468, "goals": 0.2234, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.1347, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "skill_edge": 0.0744, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6027, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "market_value": 1000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1468 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5038, "after": 1.5798 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0189, "after": 1.0704 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4849, "after": 0.5094 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2127, "after": 0.2234 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1397, "after": 0.1468 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1282, "after": 0.1347 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1468, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.1347, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.143, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.132, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1045, "after": 0.143 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.143, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.132, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1136, "fifa_rank": 589.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.143, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.132, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1339, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1339, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "scorer_weight": 0.1798, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.1071, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5094, "total_shots": 1.5798, "expected_assists": 0.143, "key_pass": 1.0887, "rating": 6.8369, "minutes": 69.95, "total_pass": 24.1075, "accurate_pass": 19.4084, "duels_won": 3.8844, "total_long_balls": 1.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7833, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.217, "crosses_total": 2.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.3652, "touches": 42.0553, "possession_lost": 12.6266, "dispossessed": 1.5438, "duels_lost": 5.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.3601, "total_contest": 3.1792, "won_contest": 1.7756, "ball_recovery": 3.5853, "challenges_lost": 0.8722, "fouls": 1.4728, "fouls_drawn": 0.9356, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0.5305, "tackles_won": 0.4998, "tackles": 0.8908, "clearances": 0.7111, "blocks": 0.2339, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0948, "xgot": 0.132, "offsides": 0.2911, "ball_carries": 13.5507, "total_progression": 53.5303, "progressive_carries": 2.409, "shots_off_target": 1.0704, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1339, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1332, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1332, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "provider_weight": 0.1787, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.1706, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "player_id": 1026015, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4036, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.8062, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3321, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0407, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0278, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1318, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9801, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7635, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.708, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0851, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0641, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3712, "combined_rank_score": 1678.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 447.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8947, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7862, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Orri Óskarsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ernest Muçi", "ranking": 3707 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Suazo", "ranking": 3708 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 3709 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beltrán", "ranking": 3710 }, { "player_name": "Niclas Eliasson", "ranking": 3711 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Núñez", "ranking": 3713 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Johansson", "ranking": 3714 }, { "player_name": "Isaac Romero", "ranking": 3715 }, { "player_name": "Roman Yaremchuk", "ranking": 3716 }, { "player_name": "Joe Gelhardt", "ranking": 3717 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 26 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.357, "goals": 0.4436, "goal_rate": 0.4436, "shots_on_target": 0.9736, "total_shots": 2.2089, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.6163, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3025, "accurate_pass": 7.0197, "duels_won": 3.3359, "total_long_balls": 0.2111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7102, "crosses_total": 0.5434, "crosses_accurate": 0.094, "touches": 21.2088, "possession_lost": 7.866, "dispossessed": 0.6457, "duels_lost": 4.249, "aerial_lost": 1.639, "total_contest": 0.5055, "won_contest": 0.2147, "ball_recovery": 0.8989, "challenges_lost": 0.3532, "fouls": 1.3203, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1684, "tackles": 0.2616, "clearances": 0.2109, "blocks": 0.1981, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9117, "xgot": 0.7131, "offsides": 0.778, "ball_carries": 4.4543, "total_progression": 13.8148, "progressive_carries": 0.9839, "shots_off_target": 1.2353 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 35.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.0842, "expectedGoals": 0.3459, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.2137, "accuratePass": 5.4009, "totalShots": 1.578 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3569994270801544, "model_output": 0.357, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0643 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.029, "total": 0.357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281785 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100893 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.057718 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.036669 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030048 } ], "others_margin": 0.084783 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.44362273812294006, "model_output": 0.4436, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0677, "total": 0.4436, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16853 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.06371 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.06054 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.059473 } ], "others_margin": 0.165853 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9735720157623291, "model_output": 0.9736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1932 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0853, "total": 0.9736, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.306937 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.076714 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.064025 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.029858 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02448 } ], "others_margin": 0.091752 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.2088541984558105, "model_output": 2.2089, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0385 } ], "others": 0.0318, "total": 2.2089, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.557735 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.110976 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048321 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047829 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038468 } ], "others_margin": 0.031684 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03021128848195076, "model_output": 0.0302, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0302, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.247487 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.21226 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.137582 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.106252 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.096206 } ], "others_margin": -0.449216 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6162722706794739, "model_output": 0.6163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2061 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.033 } ], "others": -0.0821, "total": 0.6163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267009 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065708 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061545 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.057122 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.046222 } ], "others_margin": -0.125017 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.786232948303223, "model_output": 6.7862, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0716, "total": 6.7862, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056233 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.023818 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015174 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013308 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01268 } ], "others_margin": -0.071635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3594, "goals": 0.4466, "goal_rate": 0.4466, "shots_on_target": 0.98, "total_shots": 2.2235, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9177, "xgot": 0.7178, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.2435 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3594, "goals": 0.4466, "goal_rate": 0.4466, "shots_on_target": 0.98, "total_shots": 2.2235, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9177, "xgot": 0.7178, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.2435 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.412, "goals": 0.5119, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8228, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "skill_edge": 0.0915, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "market_value": 1000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.412 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2235, "after": 2.5488 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2435, "after": 1.4254 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.98, "after": 1.1234 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.9177, "after": 1.052 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.7178, "after": 0.8228 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4466, "after": 0.5119 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3594, "after": 0.412 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.412, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8228, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4036, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8062, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.412, "after": 0.4036 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0304, "after": 0.0416 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4036, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8062, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3712, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4036, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8062, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3321, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3321, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "scorer_weight": 0.4909, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.2925, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4036, "goal_rate": 0.5119, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1234, "total_shots": 2.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "key_pass": 0.6203, "rating": 6.7862, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.052, "xgot": 0.8062, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3321, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0407, "finishing_factor": 1.2162, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0407, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0333, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0318, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carlos Soler": { "player_id": 832427, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 180, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1887, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.172, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "creation_factor": 0.9271, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "expected_assists": 0.157, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.9645, "expected_assists": 0.1993, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "expected_assists": 0.1916, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2147, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1664, "combined_rank_score": 675.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 392.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9485, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 958.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9318, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Soler", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "ranking": 1659 }, { "player_name": "Petar Sučić", "ranking": 1660 }, { "player_name": "Giacomo Raspadori", "ranking": 1661 }, { "player_name": "Wataru Endo", "ranking": 1662 }, { "player_name": "Barış Alper Yılmaz", "ranking": 1663 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Bentancur", "ranking": 1665 }, { "player_name": "Abdel Abqar", "ranking": 1666 }, { "player_name": "Sofyan Amrabat", "ranking": 1667 }, { "player_name": "Gang-han Lee", "ranking": 1668 }, { "player_name": "Choi Chi-ung", "ranking": 1669 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9992, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 208.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.43, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6922, "expected_assists": 0.138, "assists": 0.1258, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "expected_goals": 0.1142, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.4021, "total_shots": 1.3172, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.5135, "accurate_pass": 38.4669, "duels_won": 2.1228, "total_long_balls": 2.8015, "accurate_long_balls": 1.994, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6705, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2958, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1712, "crosses_total": 3.1247, "crosses_accurate": 0.7036, "touches": 56.3405, "possession_lost": 10.5731, "dispossessed": 0.9115, "duels_lost": 3.0308, "aerial_won": 0.1439, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "interceptions": 0.5833, "tackles_won": 0.334, "tackles": 0.8612, "clearances": 0.6656, "total_contest": 0.8718, "won_contest": 0.4429, "challenges_lost": 0.8221, "fouls": 0.535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6747, "blocks": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.4582, "big_chances_missed": 0.0861, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 12.8527, "total_progression": 40.598, "progressive_carries": 0.6093, "shots_off_target": 0.9151 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9515, "creative_index": 0.6673, "expectedGoals": 0.1552, "expectedAssists": 0.1189, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.328 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6922006607055664, "model_output": 1.6922, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1367 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1555 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0566 } ], "others": 0.2552, "total": 1.6922, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142419 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.14069 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.081463 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.07098 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.040151 } ], "others_margin": 0.163516 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13798244297504425, "model_output": 0.138, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": 0.0154, "total": 0.138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113094 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.110964 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.063638 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.038094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.032869 } ], "others_margin": 0.118312 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12575046718120575, "model_output": 0.1258, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 0.1258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072514 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.0725 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.070531 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.070172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.037326 } ], "others_margin": 0.042574 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11419544368982315, "model_output": 0.1142, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": 0.0006, "total": 0.1142, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.237289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118782 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04953 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.03228 } ], "others_margin": 0.006566 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11984585970640182, "model_output": 0.1198, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.1198, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.166711 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136595 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088819 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.072857 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.046336 } ], "others_margin": -0.03761 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40211859345436096, "model_output": 0.4021, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 0.4021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.134057 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132116 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.02622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024657 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.02309 } ], "others_margin": -0.033965 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.317204475402832, "model_output": 1.3172, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1747 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0299 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 1.3172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.174658 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.054066 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045443 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035134 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.029918 } ], "others_margin": -0.017549 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.931771278381348, "model_output": 6.9318, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 6.9318, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091594 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029676 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020074 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018113 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.007847 } ], "others_margin": -0.012214 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "assists": 0.1256, "assist_rate": 0.1256, "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goals": 0.1197, "goal_rate": 0.1197, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "total_shots": 1.3162, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1222, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 0.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5828, "tackles_won": 0.3337, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5346, "fouls_drawn": 0.6742, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.086, "xgot": 0.1518, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 0.9144 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "assists": 0.1242, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goals": 0.1184, "goal_rate": 0.1184, "shots_on_target": 0.3974, "total_shots": 1.3063, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 0.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.086, "xgot": 0.1518, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 0.9144 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9261, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3162, "after": 1.3063 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3337, "after": 0.3432 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5346, "after": 0.5288 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "assists": 0.1242, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goals": 0.1184, "goal_rate": 0.1184, "shots_on_target": 0.3974, "total_shots": 1.3118, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 0.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.086, "xgot": 0.1518, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 0.9144 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "assists": 0.1242, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1661, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.094, "skill_edge": 0.024, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.4907, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "market_value": 1400000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1248 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1438, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3118, "after": 1.4352 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9144, "after": 1.0004 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3974, "after": 0.4348 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1518, "after": 0.1661 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1184, "after": 0.1295 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1141, "after": 0.1248 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.086, "after": 0.0941 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1661, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1887, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "creation_factor": 0.9271 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1379, "after": 0.1887 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1887, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "creation_factor": 0.9271, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1664, "fifa_rank": 958.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1887, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "creation_factor": 0.9271, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "scorer_weight": 0.1256, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0748, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6908, "expected_assists": 0.1887, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "goal_rate": 0.1295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.4352, "rating": 6.9318, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 44.4779, "accurate_pass": 38.4361, "duels_won": 2.1211, "total_long_balls": 2.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2828, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1535, "crosses_total": 3.1189, "crosses_accurate": 0.703, "touches": 56.2954, "possession_lost": 10.5646, "dispossessed": 0.9108, "duels_lost": 3.0284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3899, "interceptions": 0.5852, "tackles_won": 0.3432, "tackles": 0.8605, "clearances": 0.6651, "total_contest": 0.8711, "won_contest": 0.4425, "challenges_lost": 0.8214, "fouls": 0.5288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6713, "blocks": 0.212, "big_chances_created": 0.4578, "big_chances_missed": 0.0941, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 12.8424, "total_progression": 40.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.6088, "shots_off_target": 1.0004, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.094, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.172, "finishing_factor": 1.0269, "creation_factor": 0.9271, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.172, "assist_rate": 0.1242, "provider_weight": 0.1749, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.167, "creation_factor": 0.9271, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "player_id": 1216309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 177, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0388, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0507, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "creation_factor": 1.1057, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083239, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083346, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1369, "combined_rank_score": 713.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9255, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 }, { "player_name": "Ui-jun Jin", "ranking": 1367 }, { "player_name": "Diego Villares", "ranking": 1368 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitão", "ranking": 1370 }, { "player_name": "Jemmes", "ranking": 1371 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Muratbaev", "ranking": 1372 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jae Kim", "ranking": 1373 }, { "player_name": "Jung-min Lee", "ranking": 1374 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0071, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 31.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5836, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1218, "total_shots": 0.5023, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.1488, "accurate_pass": 42.3019, "duels_won": 4.4079, "total_long_balls": 2.3488, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4151, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3326, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9693, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.3402, "possession_lost": 7.0804, "dispossessed": 0.7453, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 1.1858, "aerial_lost": 0.9667, "interceptions": 1.3569, "tackles_won": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.7489, "clearances": 1.6548, "total_contest": 0.6699, "won_contest": 0.308, "challenges_lost": 0.6985, "fouls": 0.9162, "fouls_drawn": 1.1653, "blocks": 0.6726, "big_chances_created": 0.0466, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 16.2385, "total_progression": 38.5356, "progressive_carries": 0.4354, "shots_off_target": 0.3805 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.1593, "creative_index": 0.1362, "expectedGoals": 0.0077, "expectedAssists": 0.0127, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0026 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5835843682289124, "model_output": 0.5836, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1408 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1391 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1065 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0892 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0537 } ], "others": -0.1691, "total": 0.5836, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.144489 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.126698 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.12007 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074013 } ], "others_margin": -0.254507 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03773999959230423, "model_output": 0.0377, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.0377, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.223207 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.221301 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.131098 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.064493 } ], "others_margin": -0.307709 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04707496985793114, "model_output": 0.0471, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.0471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.136196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.109812 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.096354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053593 } ], "others_margin": -0.307407 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03433002904057503, "model_output": 0.0343, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0343, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.48984 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127203 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.080256 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051798 } ], "others_margin": -0.24044 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04610797390341759, "model_output": 0.0461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.0461, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.242333 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.206359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.147913 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062914 } ], "others_margin": -0.204056 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12175779789686203, "model_output": 0.1218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.1218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.331359 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.261927 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.17185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122755 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.072257 } ], "others_margin": -0.269394 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5022599101066589, "model_output": 0.5023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.1683, "total": 0.5023, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.289051 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114102 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.06189 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046824 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041232 } ], "others_margin": -0.168381 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.925471782684326, "model_output": 6.9255, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 6.9255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039612 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.034993 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022666 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020318 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.016721 } ], "others_margin": -0.021257 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0474, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.1226, "total_shots": 0.5058, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0707, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.1942, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 1.1295, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9227, "fouls_drawn": 1.1736, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.3832 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1224, "total_shots": 0.505, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.1942, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.3832 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8214, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1224, "total_shots": 0.5056, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.1942, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.3832 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "skill_edge": 0.1261, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.7176, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "market_value": 1200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0404 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.1942, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5056, "after": 0.5904 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3832, "after": 0.4475 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1224, "after": 0.1429 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0463, "after": 0.0541 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0346, "after": 0.0404 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "creation_factor": 1.1057 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.038, "after": 0.052 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "creation_factor": 1.1057, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1369, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0388, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "creation_factor": 1.1057, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "scorer_weight": 0.0456, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0272, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5877, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1429, "total_shots": 0.5904, "rating": 6.9255, "minutes": 73.93, "total_pass": 47.4836, "accurate_pass": 42.6022, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 2.3655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4251, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4912, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3993, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1111, "crosses_total": 0.0706, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.7615, "possession_lost": 7.1307, "dispossessed": 0.7506, "duels_lost": 3.7148, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9736, "interceptions": 1.3643, "tackles_won": 1.1277, "tackles": 1.7613, "clearances": 1.6665, "total_contest": 0.6747, "won_contest": 0.3102, "challenges_lost": 0.7035, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 1.1717, "blocks": 0.6774, "big_chances_created": 0.0469, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 16.3538, "total_progression": 38.8092, "progressive_carries": 0.4385, "shots_off_target": 0.4475, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0388, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0507, "finishing_factor": 1.1515, "creation_factor": 1.1057, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0507, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "provider_weight": 0.0575, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0549, "creation_factor": 1.1057, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "player_id": 880218, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 174, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1582, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0476, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 67, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1463, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1143, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0577, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4845, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0988, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4873, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083239, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083346, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1228, "combined_rank_score": 536.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 315.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.025, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 757.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8318, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Takefusa Kubo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlo Armiento", "ranking": 1223 }, { "player_name": "Jeyson Rojas", "ranking": 1224 }, { "player_name": "Chang-seok Lim", "ranking": 1225 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Nanni", "ranking": 1226 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vlašić", "ranking": 1227 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trevoh Chalobah", "ranking": 1229 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Niakhaté", "ranking": 1230 }, { "player_name": "Mario Pašalić", "ranking": 1231 }, { "player_name": "Shohruh Gadoev", "ranking": 1232 }, { "player_name": "Matthieu Udol", "ranking": 1233 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 203.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.89, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1492, "goals": 0.1704, "goal_rate": 0.1704, "shots_on_target": 0.4776, "total_shots": 1.0921, "expected_assists": 0.0882, "key_pass": 0.9783, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.5564, "accurate_pass": 16.0889, "duels_won": 5.2851, "total_long_balls": 0.7945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2189, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6943, "crosses_total": 1.5279, "crosses_accurate": 0.1403, "touches": 37.2901, "possession_lost": 11.3587, "dispossessed": 0.6815, "duels_lost": 4.3936, "aerial_lost": 0.4927, "total_contest": 3.6424, "won_contest": 2.0455, "ball_recovery": 2.1527, "challenges_lost": 0.9027, "fouls": 0.7199, "fouls_drawn": 2.2079, "assists": 0.0975, "assist_rate": 0.0975, "interceptions": 0.6498, "tackles_won": 0.6376, "tackles": 0.8244, "clearances": 0.4373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3834, "big_chances_missed": 0.1977, "xgot": 0.0449, "offsides": 0.3101, "ball_carries": 13.6496, "total_progression": 67.0875, "progressive_carries": 3.8646, "shots_off_target": 0.6145 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 11.2755, "expectedGoals": 0.0926, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.6973, "accuratePass": 11.7724, "totalShots": 0.5862 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14921967685222626, "model_output": 0.1492, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.1492, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.29827 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.221774 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.129277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.051567 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.044225 } ], "others_margin": -0.220296 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.17044588923454285, "model_output": 0.1704, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.1704, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.305343 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.193666 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.11292 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.082633 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.067483 } ], "others_margin": -0.190454 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4775855243206024, "model_output": 0.4776, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1885 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0369 } ], "others": -0.1197, "total": 0.4776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.300598 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.10109 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.08163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076266 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.063742 } ], "others_margin": -0.223816 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0920984745025635, "model_output": 1.0921, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2265 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0606 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0595 } ], "others": -0.2429, "total": 1.0921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.407469 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226479 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.099702 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.060623 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059486 } ], "others_margin": -0.24292 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08821500092744827, "model_output": 0.0882, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0033 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.0882, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.168397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.063964 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041379 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036153 } ], "others_margin": 0.043554 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9782692790031433, "model_output": 0.9783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2058 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.0528, "total": 0.9783, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.266724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037979 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.03325 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.028652 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027529 } ], "others_margin": 0.055316 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831754207611084, "model_output": 6.8318, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 6.8318, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057612 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024673 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.017482 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016438 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011495 } ], "others_margin": 0.009389 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goals": 0.1715, "goal_rate": 0.1715, "shots_on_target": 0.4805, "total_shots": 1.0987, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5371, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7242, "fouls_drawn": 2.2211, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "interceptions": 0.6537, "tackles_won": 0.6414, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.1989, "xgot": 0.0452, "offsides": 0.312, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.6182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0147)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "shots_on_target": 0.4735, "total_shots": 1.0927, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assists": 0.0967, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.1989, "xgot": 0.0452, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.6182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0147, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7751, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.2211, "after": 2.2132 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4805, "after": 0.4735 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0987, "after": 1.0927 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "shots_on_target": 0.4735, "total_shots": 1.0927, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assists": 0.0967, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.1989, "xgot": 0.0452, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.6182 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1615, "goals": 0.1818, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assists": 0.0967, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0486, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "skill_edge": 0.0915, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "market_value": 1000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1615 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0927, "after": 1.1754 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6182, "after": 0.665 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4735, "after": 0.5093 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1989, "after": 0.214 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.169, "after": 0.1818 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1501, "after": 0.1615 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1615, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0486, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1582, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0476, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0577 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0887, "after": 0.1214 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1582, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0476, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0577, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1228, "fifa_rank": 757.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1582, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0476, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1463, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0577, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "scorer_weight": 0.1734, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.1033, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1582, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5093, "total_shots": 1.1754, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 0.9841, "rating": 6.8318, "minutes": 69.76, "total_pass": 20.6797, "accurate_pass": 16.1854, "duels_won": 5.3168, "total_long_balls": 0.7993, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2202, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7645, "crosses_total": 1.5343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 37.5138, "possession_lost": 11.4269, "dispossessed": 0.6856, "duels_lost": 4.42, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "total_contest": 3.6643, "won_contest": 2.0578, "ball_recovery": 2.1656, "challenges_lost": 0.9081, "fouls": 0.7284, "fouls_drawn": 2.2132, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.6419, "tackles": 0.8293, "clearances": 0.4399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3857, "big_chances_missed": 0.214, "xgot": 0.0476, "offsides": 0.3074, "ball_carries": 13.7315, "total_progression": 67.49, "progressive_carries": 3.8878, "shots_off_target": 0.665, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1463, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1143, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0577, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1143, "assist_rate": 0.0967, "provider_weight": 0.1284, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.1226, "creation_factor": 1.0577, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sergio Gómez": { "player_id": 855835, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 171, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1462, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1269, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0718, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0131, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1283, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0826, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3683, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1248, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2458, "combined_rank_score": 887.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 535.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8286, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 1239.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7761, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorrel Hato", "ranking": 2453 }, { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jaka Bijol", "ranking": 2459 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Ramos", "ranking": 2460 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Moya", "ranking": 2461 }, { "player_name": "Ji Dong-Won", "ranking": 2462 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Savarino", "ranking": 2463 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.788, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.788, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0022, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 341.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.79, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.25, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9981, "tackles": 2.1066, "tackles_won": 1.342, "clearances": 2.4647, "aerial_won": 0.7545, "total_shots": 0.5293, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.5899, "accurate_pass": 38.8457, "duels_won": 3.4301, "total_long_balls": 3.5317, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1494, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8165, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5702, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.2755, "crosses_total": 4.427, "crosses_accurate": 0.7629, "touches": 70.1053, "possession_lost": 13.1317, "dispossessed": 0.3532, "duels_lost": 2.7205, "aerial_lost": 0.3994, "total_contest": 0.8049, "won_contest": 0.6009, "ball_recovery": 4.7946, "challenges_lost": 1.3664, "fouls": 0.4899, "fouls_drawn": 0.2213, "blocks": 0.447, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1386, "assist_rate": 0.1386, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "big_chances_created": 0.2857, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5664, "total_progression": 40.9186, "progressive_carries": 0.7699, "key_pass": 1.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.4207 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.7693, "aerialWon": 0.5249, "totalClearance_p90": 3.1335, "totalTackle": 2.0217, "defensive_actions": 2.904 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9980581402778625, "model_output": 0.9981, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0246, "total": 0.9981, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128579 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.03208 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.027945 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.019873 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.018307 } ], "others_margin": 0.024985 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.106632947921753, "model_output": 2.1066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2068 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.1092 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1088 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.08 } ], "others": 0.1221, "total": 2.1066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138571 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.066101 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.06177 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.047441 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.041168 } ], "others_margin": 0.059654 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3419740200042725, "model_output": 1.342, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0894 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0773 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0455 } ], "others": 0.0655, "total": 1.342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140731 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.087024 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.069574 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.068049 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036308 } ], "others_margin": 0.050085 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.464738607406616, "model_output": 2.4647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.449 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.44 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2477 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2194 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1046 } ], "others": -0.4053, "total": 2.4647, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122924 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.120296 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074699 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.071164 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.035797 } ], "others_margin": -0.15224 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7544640302658081, "model_output": 0.7545, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1224 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0399 } ], "others": -0.1691, "total": 0.7545, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.373558 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121446 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.05587 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.049358 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042332 } ], "others_margin": -0.20221 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5292643904685974, "model_output": 0.5293, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0653 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.5293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018295 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008654 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008335 } ], "others_margin": -0.003957 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776126384735107, "model_output": 6.7761, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 6.7761, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013809 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012517 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01043 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007244 } ], "others_margin": -0.00478 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0022, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3449, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5305, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4367, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.491, "fouls_drawn": 0.2218, "blocks": 0.448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1389, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0022, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0172)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0172, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9511, "prior_reliability": 0.2533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.4367, "after": 4.4593 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0224, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1269 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1155, "after": 0.158 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1269, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2458, "fifa_rank": 1239.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1269, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0124, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0074, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0003, "tackles": 2.1113, "tackles_won": 1.3433, "clearances": 2.4702, "aerial_won": 0.7561, "total_shots": 0.5343, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 44.688, "accurate_pass": 38.9312, "duels_won": 3.4376, "total_long_balls": 3.5395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1541, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8623, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6111, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3201, "crosses_total": 4.4593, "crosses_accurate": 0.7646, "touches": 70.2595, "possession_lost": 13.1606, "dispossessed": 0.354, "duels_lost": 2.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.4003, "total_contest": 0.8067, "won_contest": 0.6022, "ball_recovery": 4.8051, "challenges_lost": 1.3694, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.218, "blocks": 0.448, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.2863, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 14.5984, "total_progression": 41.0086, "progressive_carries": 0.7716, "key_pass": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.4216, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1462, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1269, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1462, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "provider_weight": 0.1781, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.17, "creation_factor": 1.1269, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jon Martin": { "player_id": 1466116, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2292, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0844, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1976, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1425, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 6, "rating": 4.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0611, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 69, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0618, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 84, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2491, "combined_rank_score": 899.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 549.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.82, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 1249.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8315, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Martin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luca Tevere", "ranking": 2486 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jun Kim", "ranking": 2487 }, { "player_name": "Akramjon Komilov", "ranking": 2488 }, { "player_name": "Javier Nicolás Cárcamo", "ranking": 2489 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong Baek", "ranking": 2490 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sardor Abdunabiev", "ranking": 2492 }, { "player_name": "Yastin Cuevas", "ranking": 2493 }, { "player_name": "Igor Paixão", "ranking": 2494 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Espí", "ranking": 2495 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Panichelli", "ranking": 2496 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.79, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.79, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 32 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1034, "tackles": 1.3662, "tackles_won": 0.7868, "clearances": 6.0271, "aerial_won": 2.5555, "total_shots": 0.5404, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3658, "accurate_pass": 48.7083, "duels_won": 5.0989, "total_long_balls": 2.889, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1335, "total_own_half_passes": 37.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.5726, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.8291, "possession_lost": 5.7208, "dispossessed": 0.5164, "duels_lost": 3.4892, "aerial_lost": 1.5852, "total_contest": 0.3519, "won_contest": 0.0781, "ball_recovery": 3.163, "challenges_lost": 0.2967, "fouls": 0.9308, "fouls_drawn": 0.4605, "blocks": 1.1592, "goals": 0.2551, "goal_rate": 0.2551, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0894, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.3543, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2324, "ball_carries": 20.9049, "total_progression": 60.9923, "progressive_carries": 0.2469, "key_pass": 0.1051, "shots_off_target": 0.1861 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 6.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 4.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.6803, "aerialWon": 2.6612, "totalClearance_p90": 5.6803, "totalTackle": 1.4012, "defensive_actions": 2.5431 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1033718585968018, "model_output": 1.1034, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1195 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0808 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 1.1034, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129992 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.07923 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.028363 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.017619 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016731 } ], "others_margin": -0.023756 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.366247534751892, "model_output": 1.3662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1837 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.026 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 1.3662, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123968 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043353 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028179 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.02097 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018262 } ], "others_margin": -0.031522 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7867770791053772, "model_output": 0.7868, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1114 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": -0.0933, "total": 0.7868, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122589 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042961 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.042276 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028819 } ], "others_margin": -0.112053 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.027129650115967, "model_output": 6.0271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7748 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.6063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3567 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2916 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1681 } ], "others": 0.3969, "total": 6.0271, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.203526 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07148 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.054859 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.030304 } ], "others_margin": 0.068124 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.555544853210449, "model_output": 2.5555, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2215 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1641 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0943 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0892 } ], "others": 0.0798, "total": 2.5555, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.325214 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109895 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.074271 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.040298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036692 } ], "others_margin": 0.031761 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5403764247894287, "model_output": 0.5404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 0.5404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050527 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037826 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01738 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.016564 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010807 } ], "others_margin": -0.010854 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8315300941467285, "model_output": 6.8315, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": 0.0316, "total": 6.8315, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021524 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019129 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.018264 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017853 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017234 } ], "others_margin": 0.03158 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1107, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.792, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.544, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9369, "fouls_drawn": 0.4635, "blocks": 1.1669, "goals": 0.2568, "goal_rate": 0.2568, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.009, "shots_on_target": 0.3566, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2339, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0234)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.009, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2339, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0234, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1107, "after": 1.0905 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.792, "after": 0.8086 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4635, "after": 0.4702 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2568, "after": 0.2508 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.009, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2339, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.009, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2339, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.009, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2339, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2292, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8475 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2292, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2491, "fifa_rank": 1249.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2292, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0844, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "scorer_weight": 0.1103, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0657, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0905, "tackles": 1.3753, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 6.0669, "aerial_won": 2.5724, "total_shots": 0.543, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.718, "accurate_pass": 49.0298, "duels_won": 5.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.9081, "accurate_long_balls": 1.141, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8074, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2768, "possession_lost": 5.7586, "dispossessed": 0.5198, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.5957, "total_contest": 0.3542, "won_contest": 0.0786, "ball_recovery": 3.1839, "challenges_lost": 0.2987, "fouls": 0.9384, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "blocks": 1.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2292, "ball_carries": 21.0429, "total_progression": 61.3948, "progressive_carries": 0.2485, "key_pass": 0.1058, "shots_off_target": 0.1873, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0844, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0104, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.01, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "player_id": 1154657, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 194, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023971, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4359, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024007, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3265, "combined_rank_score": 1210.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 976.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1444.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7246, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mamadou Sarr", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Da Cunha", "ranking": 3260 }, { "player_name": "Strahinja Pavlović", "ranking": 3261 }, { "player_name": "Félix Correia", "ranking": 3262 }, { "player_name": "Kenneth Taylor", "ranking": 3263 }, { "player_name": "Johan Vásquez", "ranking": 3264 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yoan Bonny", "ranking": 3266 }, { "player_name": "Urko González", "ranking": 3267 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Douvikas", "ranking": 3268 }, { "player_name": "Sam Beukema", "ranking": 3269 }, { "player_name": "Máximo Perrone", "ranking": 3270 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0223, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8082, "tackles": 1.379, "tackles_won": 0.8469, "clearances": 3.5149, "aerial_won": 1.1841, "total_shots": 0.2759, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 47.9984, "accurate_pass": 45.2591, "duels_won": 3.5019, "total_long_balls": 2.4995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.074, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6327, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1332, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1259, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4278, "possession_lost": 3.7863, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1742, "aerial_lost": 1.0871, "total_contest": 0.7733, "won_contest": 0.5806, "ball_recovery": 3.6031, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8944, "fouls_drawn": 0.8073, "blocks": 1.0871, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.084, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.1671, "total_progression": 25.6501, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2759 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8309, "aerialWon": 0.3526, "totalClearance_p90": 3.03, "totalTackle": 1.3955, "defensive_actions": 1.9667 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8081960678100586, "model_output": 0.8082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1118 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0989 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.066, "total": 0.8082, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122051 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.107196 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.03566 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022743 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013357 } ], "others_margin": -0.078439 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3790291547775269, "model_output": 1.379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.171 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0464, "total": 1.379, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115922 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.037262 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.022248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.019895 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.012399 } ], "others_margin": -0.033125 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8468894958496094, "model_output": 0.8469, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0379, "total": 0.8469, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121194 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055742 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.030018 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.02467 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.024428 } ], "others_margin": -0.043748 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.5148630142211914, "model_output": 3.5149, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5154 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.5794 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.4145 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3109 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2379 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 3.5149, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139887 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.136938 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.09602 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.078596 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.064626 } ], "others_margin": -0.013937 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1841487884521484, "model_output": 1.1841, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0493 } ], "others": 0.0704, "total": 1.1841, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.357004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133001 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.123516 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.068598 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04334 } ], "others_margin": 0.061315 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2758714556694031, "model_output": 0.2759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1207 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0876, "total": 0.2759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120736 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016513 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011022 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009815 } ], "others_margin": -0.087521 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7245893478393555, "model_output": 6.7246, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0006, "total": 6.7246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012736 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010734 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009809 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008359 } ], "others_margin": 0.000602 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0223, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0859, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0223, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0859, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0859, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0859, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8636 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3265, "fifa_rank": 1444.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0674, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0401, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8262, "tackles": 1.4098, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 3.5932, "aerial_won": 1.2106, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7246, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 49.0688, "accurate_pass": 46.2684, "duels_won": 3.58, "total_long_balls": 2.5552, "accurate_long_balls": 1.098, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8498, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.753, "possession_lost": 3.8707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2227, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.7905, "won_contest": 0.5935, "ball_recovery": 3.6834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9143, "fouls_drawn": 0.8253, "blocks": 1.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.5276, "total_progression": 26.2221, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2821, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0107, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0093, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0089, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Héctor Fort": { "player_id": 1402908, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 63, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083743, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083252, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083183, "match_date": "2025-12-21", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.182, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083153, "match_date": "2025-12-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083149, "match_date": "2025-11-28", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4463, "combined_rank_score": 2486.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 706.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6929, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 4266.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5923, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hector Fort", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Valeriy Bondar", "ranking": 4458 }, { "player_name": "Volodymyr Brazhko", "ranking": 4459 }, { "player_name": "Jhohan Romaña", "ranking": 4460 }, { "player_name": "Branco Ampuero", "ranking": 4461 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rossi", "ranking": 4462 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Palavecino", "ranking": 4464 }, { "player_name": "Ben Cabango", "ranking": 4465 }, { "player_name": "Federico Pereira", "ranking": 4466 }, { "player_name": "Alex Palmer", "ranking": 4467 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Itten", "ranking": 4468 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 16, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 16, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 16 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7403, "tackles": 1.664, "tackles_won": 0.9896, "clearances": 3.0798, "aerial_won": 0.9423, "total_shots": 0.6621, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 16.9848, "accurate_pass": 13.877, "duels_won": 2.6493, "total_long_balls": 1.0935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5762, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8458, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0312, "crosses_total": 1.0239, "crosses_accurate": 0.1152, "touches": 28.8926, "possession_lost": 7.3528, "dispossessed": 0.6528, "duels_lost": 2.9087, "aerial_lost": 0.4841, "total_contest": 1.9887, "won_contest": 0.7673, "ball_recovery": 1.937, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0833, "goals": 0.3803, "goal_rate": 0.3803, "assists": 0.2712, "assist_rate": 0.2712, "expected_goals": 0.0657, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "shots_on_target": 0.6621, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2101, "ball_carries": 5.1037, "total_progression": 8.6625, "progressive_carries": 1.0583, "key_pass": 0.3864, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-21", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0519, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-07", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0442, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-28", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0375, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 16.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 0.5078, "aerialWon": 0.178, "totalClearance_p90": 2.9486, "totalTackle": 0.7307, "defensive_actions": 1.0378 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7402703762054443, "model_output": 0.7403, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0937 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0389, "total": 0.7403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.144924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118497 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.054417 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.050153 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.031149 } ], "others_margin": -0.051084 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.664030909538269, "model_output": 1.664, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2086 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.1225 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0947 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0841 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.084 } ], "others": 0.036, "total": 1.664, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139713 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.073782 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.056532 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.050349 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.05028 } ], "others_margin": 0.021824 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9896315336227417, "model_output": 0.9896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1233 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0688 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0497 } ], "others": 0.0221, "total": 0.9896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134857 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.069483 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067938 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064581 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.052692 } ], "others_margin": 0.022694 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.079789400100708, "model_output": 3.0798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.4189 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.4011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1805 } ], "others": 0.3183, "total": 3.0798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.313574 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.13389 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.127799 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063315 } ], "others_margin": 0.109049 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9422664046287537, "model_output": 0.9423, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1152 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.091 } ], "others": -0.176, "total": 0.9423, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.420763 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.110801 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.106314 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.084875 } ], "others_margin": -0.171268 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6621, "model_output": 0.5191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.017, "total": 0.5191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058818 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021814 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016771 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016302 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014059 } ], "others_margin": -0.016974 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.592260837554932, "model_output": 6.5923, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0684, "total": 6.5923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039282 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.036039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023413 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.012961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01232 } ], "others_margin": -0.068428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3822, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0172, "after": 0.0235 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4463, "fifa_rank": 4266.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "scorer_weight": 0.0809, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.744, "tackles": 1.6724, "tackles_won": 0.9946, "clearances": 3.0952, "aerial_won": 0.947, "total_shots": 0.6654, "rating": 6.5923, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0697, "accurate_pass": 13.9464, "duels_won": 2.6625, "total_long_balls": 1.099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5791, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5626, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.87, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0764, "crosses_total": 1.029, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0371, "possession_lost": 7.3896, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 2.9232, "aerial_lost": 0.4865, "total_contest": 1.9986, "won_contest": 0.7711, "ball_recovery": 1.9467, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3822, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.6654, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 5.1292, "total_progression": 8.7058, "progressive_carries": 1.0636, "key_pass": 0.3883, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "provider_weight": 0.0294, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.028, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 48, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.451 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.9518 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.0483 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1123 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2288 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.2697 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.5276 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -2.2689 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1956 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3427 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 591, "combined_rank_score": 308.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 43.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.825, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 574.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álex Remiro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "George Pickford", "ranking": 586 }, { "player_name": "Shane Nti", "ranking": 587 }, { "player_name": "Gnangoro Bouare Samake", "ranking": 588 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili Ben Hamou", "ranking": 589 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Angel Castillo Rodrguez", "ranking": 590 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dejan Kulusevski", "ranking": 592 }, { "player_name": "Inpyo Oh", "ranking": 593 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Paredes", "ranking": 594 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Sepúlveda", "ranking": 595 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Requena", "ranking": 596 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.79, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.79, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9662, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5804, "accurate_pass": 24.8515, "total_long_balls": 21.4987, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0795, "touches": 48.2894, "clearances": 1.505, "ball_recovery": 8.4455, "high_claims": 0.8125, "punches": 0.9307, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9144, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9139, "saves_inside_box": 2.3779, "possession_lost": 12.916, "duels_won": 0.1928, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1244, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5147 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 9.0796, "save_contribution": 3.4727, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8596, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 19.5147, "passValueNormalized": 0.1239, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 22.0391 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.966201066970825, "model_output": 2.9662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 2.9662, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017256 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.013718 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.012678 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.00696 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006306 } ], "others_margin": -0.001275 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.0724785253405571, "model_output": -0.0725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": -0.0725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016436 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.016174 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.016136 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015678 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.0135 } ], "others_margin": 0.002202 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.932911396026611, "model_output": 6.9329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 6.9329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050294 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.021108 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016089 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010718 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010716 } ], "others_margin": 0.022997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9674, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1244, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0177)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0177, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9674, "after": 2.9901 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.6, "expected_saves": 1.61, "high_pressure_saves": 0.56, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.6959 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.6, "expected_saves": 1.61, "high_pressure_saves": 0.56, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 6.6, "after": 6.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.61, "after": 1.52 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.56, "after": 0.52 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 591, "fifa_rank": 574.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9901, "goals_prevented": -0.0725, "rating": 6.9329, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.5954, "accurate_pass": 24.8614, "total_long_balls": 21.5073, "accurate_long_balls": 9.0831, "touches": 48.3087, "clearances": 1.5056, "ball_recovery": 8.4489, "high_claims": 0.8128, "punches": 0.9311, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "sweeper_actions": 1.9152, "sweeper_accurate": 1.9147, "saves_inside_box": 2.3789, "possession_lost": 12.9212, "duels_won": 0.1929, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1222, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5225, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.6959, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Unai Marrero": { "player_id": 1094782, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 8, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.0376 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.7581 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3493, "combined_rank_score": 1479.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2906.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1313, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Unai Marrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tyrhys Dolan", "ranking": 3488 }, { "player_name": "Yann Gboho", "ranking": 3489 }, { "player_name": "Ansu Fati", "ranking": 3490 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 3491 }, { "player_name": "Ismaël Doukouré", "ranking": 3492 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ilan Kebbal", "ranking": 3494 }, { "player_name": "Mousa Al Tamari", "ranking": 3495 }, { "player_name": "Baptiste Santamaria", "ranking": 3496 }, { "player_name": "Quentin Merlin", "ranking": 3497 }, { "player_name": "Eddie Nketiah", "ranking": 3498 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9855, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (2 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0108, "goals_prevented": -0.0929, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 37.4595, "accurate_pass": 23.7027, "total_long_balls": 27.4595, "accurate_long_balls": 13.7027, "touches": 52.5405, "clearances": 1.5405, "ball_recovery": 11.9189, "high_claims": 1.0, "punches": 1.5405, "aerial_won": 0.5405, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0, "saves_inside_box": 5.4595, "possession_lost": 14.2973, "duels_won": 0.5405, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9189, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7027 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 13.7027, "save_contribution": 7.8685, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7965, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.7027, "passValueNormalized": 0.1895, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 19.9189 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.01084041595459, "model_output": 3.0108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2144 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.1183 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0421 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 3.0108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075681 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.042484 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.01771 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.014217 } ], "others_margin": 0.00835 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.09291543066501617, "model_output": -0.0929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0596, "total": -0.0929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.051087 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023021 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.021074 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.020912 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019135 } ], "others_margin": -0.059588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.131319999694824, "model_output": 7.1313, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0168 } ], "others": 0.0916, "total": 7.1313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.042284 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037418 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.032966 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021207 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.016762 } ], "others_margin": 0.091641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9672, "goals_prevented": -0.0916, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.9163, "accurate_pass": 23.359, "total_long_balls": 27.0613, "accurate_long_balls": 13.504, "touches": 51.7787, "clearances": 1.5182, "ball_recovery": 11.7461, "high_claims": 0.9855, "punches": 1.5182, "aerial_won": 0.5327, "sweeper_actions": 0.9855, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9855, "saves_inside_box": 5.3803, "possession_lost": 14.09, "duels_won": 0.5327, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.475 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4573, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4573, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4573, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4573, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3493, "fifa_rank": 2906.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Jon Aramburu": { "player_id": 1116388, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 176, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 2.2462, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.09, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "expected_assists": 0.1303, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 6, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2085, "combined_rank_score": 793.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 16.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1571.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7545, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 }, { "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking": 2081 }, { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Mouriño", "ranking": 2087 }, { "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking": 2088 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Partey", "ranking": 2089 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Izzatov", "ranking": 2090 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.786, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.786, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.085629977298677, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.227, "market_value_adjustment": 1.002, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.24 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (42 historical appearances) to 14.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5922, "tackles": 0.8866, "tackles_won": 0.4481, "clearances": 0.9729, "aerial_won": 0.4875, "total_shots": 0.2238, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 18.1936, "accurate_pass": 15.7682, "duels_won": 2.6075, "total_long_balls": 1.5675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4935, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6519, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7684, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1162, "crosses_total": 1.5782, "crosses_accurate": 0.7733, "touches": 29.2214, "possession_lost": 4.0376, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6122, "aerial_lost": 0.1927, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2267, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 1.034, "fouls_drawn": 0.5335, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0793, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9155, "total_progression": 7.1525, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3138, "shots_off_target": 0.2238 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.3213, "aerialWon": 1.8111, "totalClearance_p90": 3.4125, "totalTackle": 2.9917, "defensive_actions": 4.7884 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5921823382377625, "model_output": 0.5922, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4439 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": 0.0618, "total": 0.5922, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.72494 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.137636 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038218 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.036372 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.028585 } ], "others_margin": 0.109995 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8866488933563232, "model_output": 0.8866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8133 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0414 } ], "others": 0.1185, "total": 0.8866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.878173 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.090464 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.069959 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.068173 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055343 } ], "others_margin": 0.143542 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.44808006286621094, "model_output": 0.4481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5156 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0607, "total": 0.4481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.925476 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.078646 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.062029 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038616 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.032891 } ], "others_margin": 0.145373 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.97288978099823, "model_output": 0.9729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0884 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1127 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0749 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0526 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0425 } ], "others": -0.0887, "total": 0.9729, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.937469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087575 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.062773 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046567 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.039233 } ], "others_margin": -0.087225 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4875417947769165, "model_output": 0.4875, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7955 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1165 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0211 } ], "others": -0.1293, "total": 0.4875, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.861711 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.182514 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.055728 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.034711 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.033666 } ], "others_margin": -0.235212 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22381235659122467, "model_output": 0.2238, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2509 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 0.2238, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.250931 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022593 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.014314 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014017 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010673 } ], "others_margin": -0.033321 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75449275970459, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015932 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010856 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008948 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008354 } ], "others_margin": 0.004638 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0020, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5934, "tackles": 0.8884, "tackles_won": 0.449, "clearances": 0.9748, "aerial_won": 0.4885, "total_shots": 0.2243, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 18.23, "accurate_pass": 15.7997, "duels_won": 2.6127, "total_long_balls": 1.5706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4945, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6632, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1364, "crosses_total": 1.5814, "crosses_accurate": 0.7748, "touches": 29.2798, "possession_lost": 4.0457, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.5346, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0574, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9233, "total_progression": 7.1668, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3144, "shots_off_target": 0.2242 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.002, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0166)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5991, "tackles": 0.8884, "tackles_won": 0.4519, "clearances": 0.9748, "aerial_won": 0.4885, "total_shots": 0.2245, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 18.23, "accurate_pass": 15.7997, "duels_won": 2.6127, "total_long_balls": 1.5706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4945, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6632, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1364, "crosses_total": 1.5643, "crosses_accurate": 0.7748, "touches": 29.2798, "possession_lost": 4.0457, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 1.0423, "fouls_drawn": 0.5361, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0574, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "shots_on_target": 0.0013, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9233, "total_progression": 7.1668, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3144, "shots_off_target": 0.2242 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0166, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2819, "prior_reliability": 0.24, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5814, "after": 1.5643 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0361, "after": 1.0423 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5934, "after": 0.5991 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 14.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4932, "tackles_won": 0.2509, "clearances": 0.5412, "aerial_won": 0.2712, "total_shots": 0.1252, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.09, "total_pass": 10.1214, "accurate_pass": 8.7721, "duels_won": 1.4506, "total_long_balls": 0.872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2746, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1443, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6278, "crosses_total": 0.8685, "crosses_accurate": 0.4302, "touches": 16.2564, "possession_lost": 2.2462, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8969, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2388, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 0.5787, "fouls_drawn": 0.2976, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1782, "total_progression": 3.9791, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1746, "shots_off_target": 0.1245, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.09, "projection_minutes": 25.37, "minutes_scale": 0.5552, "appearance_probability": 0.227 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4932, "tackles_won": 0.2509, "clearances": 0.5412, "aerial_won": 0.2712, "total_shots": 0.1252, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.09, "total_pass": 10.1214, "accurate_pass": 8.7721, "duels_won": 1.4506, "total_long_balls": 0.872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2746, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1443, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6278, "crosses_total": 0.8685, "crosses_accurate": 0.4302, "touches": 16.2564, "possession_lost": 2.2462, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8969, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2388, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 0.5787, "fouls_drawn": 0.2976, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1782, "total_progression": 3.9791, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1746, "shots_off_target": 0.1245, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4932, "tackles_won": 0.2509, "clearances": 0.5412, "aerial_won": 0.2712, "total_shots": 0.1252, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.09, "total_pass": 10.1214, "accurate_pass": 8.7721, "duels_won": 1.4506, "total_long_balls": 0.872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2746, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1443, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6278, "crosses_total": 0.8685, "crosses_accurate": 0.4302, "touches": 16.2564, "possession_lost": 2.2462, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8969, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2388, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 0.5787, "fouls_drawn": 0.2976, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1782, "total_progression": 3.9791, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1746, "shots_off_target": 0.1245, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.09, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.227, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4932, "tackles_won": 0.2509, "clearances": 0.5412, "aerial_won": 0.2712, "total_shots": 0.1252, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.09, "total_pass": 10.1214, "accurate_pass": 8.7721, "duels_won": 1.4506, "total_long_balls": 0.872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2746, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1443, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6278, "crosses_total": 0.8685, "crosses_accurate": 0.4302, "touches": 16.2564, "possession_lost": 2.2462, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8969, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2388, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 0.5787, "fouls_drawn": 0.2976, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1782, "total_progression": 3.9791, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1746, "shots_off_target": 0.1245, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.09, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2085, "fifa_rank": 1571.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Igor Zubeldia": { "player_id": 838159, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 180, "market_value": 6300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 2.0044, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0483, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 72, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081808, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 39, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1740, "combined_rank_score": 696.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7324, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Zubeldia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicko Sensoli", "ranking": 1735 }, { "player_name": "Giorgos Masouras", "ranking": 1736 }, { "player_name": "Ramiro González", "ranking": 1737 }, { "player_name": "Ho-yeong Seong", "ranking": 1738 }, { "player_name": "Bekzod Sulaymonov", "ranking": 1739 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Muhriddin Pazildinov", "ranking": 1741 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Vega", "ranking": 1742 }, { "player_name": "Enes Mahmutović", "ranking": 1743 }, { "player_name": "Ľubomír Šatka", "ranking": 1744 }, { "player_name": "Myeong-heui Choi", "ranking": 1745 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.784, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.784, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.316, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (31 historical appearances) to 24.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3415, "tackles": 0.6355, "tackles_won": 0.3456, "clearances": 1.7792, "aerial_won": 0.5533, "total_shots": 0.1196, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 8.2529, "accurate_pass": 6.9461, "duels_won": 0.9929, "total_long_balls": 0.7733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5455, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4007, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3695, "possession_lost": 1.8873, "dispossessed": 0.2667, "duels_lost": 1.1611, "aerial_lost": 0.8944, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8473, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "expected_assists": 0.001, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6606, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1196 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.5566, "aerialWon": 1.1546, "totalClearance_p90": 4.3876, "totalTackle": 2.0543, "defensive_actions": 2.9849 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.34151673316955566, "model_output": 0.3415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4975 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 0.3415, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862427 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029618 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.025564 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02131 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01407 } ], "others_margin": -0.030798 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6354728937149048, "model_output": 0.6355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7515 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 0.6355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.776735 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.042275 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026968 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.026363 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.026301 } ], "others_margin": -0.075009 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3456105589866638, "model_output": 0.3456, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4749 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": -0.0628, "total": 0.3456, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.811976 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057351 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.044419 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.043595 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.042949 } ], "others_margin": -0.166449 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7792187929153442, "model_output": 1.7792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1242 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1008 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0867 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0529 } ], "others": 0.1566, "total": 1.7792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.964447 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074222 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.05971 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.048115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.033115 } ], "others_margin": 0.092103 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5532922148704529, "model_output": 0.5533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0815 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0309, "total": 0.5533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.884692 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.154803 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.101352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064132 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.016229 } ], "others_margin": -0.054221 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11960447579622269, "model_output": 0.1196, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1824 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0906 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 0.1196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090618 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.01117 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010339 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008441 } ], "others_margin": -0.051966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732396602630615, "model_output": 6.7324, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 6.7324, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018419 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013398 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006977 } ], "others_margin": 0.015969 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3411, "tackles": 0.6348, "tackles_won": 0.3452, "clearances": 1.7773, "aerial_won": 0.5527, "total_shots": 0.1195, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 8.2438, "accurate_pass": 6.9385, "duels_won": 0.9918, "total_long_balls": 0.7724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1925, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5405, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3537, "possession_lost": 1.8852, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.1598, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8464, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "expected_assists": 0.001, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6577, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0205)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3419, "tackles": 0.6348, "tackles_won": 0.3444, "clearances": 1.7773, "aerial_won": 0.5527, "total_shots": 0.1171, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 8.2438, "accurate_pass": 6.9385, "duels_won": 0.9918, "total_long_balls": 0.7724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1925, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5405, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3537, "possession_lost": 1.8852, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.1598, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8464, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0047, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "expected_assists": 0.001, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6577, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1195 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0205, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.26, "prior_reliability": 0.2267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 24.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.6749, "tackles_won": 0.3662, "clearances": 1.8897, "aerial_won": 0.5877, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.7652, "accurate_pass": 7.3773, "duels_won": 1.0545, "total_long_balls": 0.8213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2047, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8277, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2615, "possession_lost": 2.0044, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.2332, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8999, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.005, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8258, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.88, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 1.0632, "appearance_probability": 0.316 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.6749, "tackles_won": 0.3662, "clearances": 1.8897, "aerial_won": 0.5877, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.7652, "accurate_pass": 7.3773, "duels_won": 1.0545, "total_long_balls": 0.8213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2047, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8277, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2615, "possession_lost": 2.0044, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.2332, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8999, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.005, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8258, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.6749, "tackles_won": 0.3662, "clearances": 1.8897, "aerial_won": 0.5877, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.7652, "accurate_pass": 7.3773, "duels_won": 1.0545, "total_long_balls": 0.8213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2047, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8277, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2615, "possession_lost": 2.0044, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.2332, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8999, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.005, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8258, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.316, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.6749, "tackles_won": 0.3662, "clearances": 1.8897, "aerial_won": 0.5877, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.7652, "accurate_pass": 7.3773, "duels_won": 1.0545, "total_long_balls": 0.8213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2047, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8277, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2615, "possession_lost": 2.0044, "dispossessed": 0.2664, "duels_lost": 1.2332, "aerial_lost": 0.8934, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8999, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.005, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8258, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1740, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Luka Sučić": { "player_id": 949156, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 185, "market_value": 16300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0987, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1034, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.3605, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0838, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.416, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2925, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1746, "expected_assists": 0.2711, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0924, "expected_assists": 0.2147, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2155, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "expected_assists": 0.1689, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.25, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4355, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3134, "combined_rank_score": 1102.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1975.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7293, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lawrence Shankland", "ranking": 3129 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Carter-Vickers", "ranking": 3130 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking": 3132 }, { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 3136 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking": 3138 }, { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.781, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.781, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.416, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0038, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 30.0, "goals_per90": 0.3225806451612903, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (30 historical appearances) to 26.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.42); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 30.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.701, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.102, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.105, "goal_rate": 0.105, "shots_on_target": 0.2329, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 27.14, "total_pass": 17.8942, "accurate_pass": 14.7639, "duels_won": 1.0454, "total_long_balls": 1.9608, "accurate_long_balls": 1.484, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6683, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0956, "crosses_total": 0.4744, "crosses_accurate": 0.1706, "touches": 22.3925, "possession_lost": 4.4205, "dispossessed": 0.193, "duels_lost": 1.36, "aerial_won": 0.418, "aerial_lost": 0.2716, "interceptions": 0.1514, "tackles_won": 0.1133, "tackles": 0.2024, "clearances": 0.3036, "total_contest": 0.6405, "won_contest": 0.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.2397, "fouls": 0.3645, "fouls_drawn": 0.0757, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 11.078, "total_progression": 35.9496, "progressive_carries": 0.4588, "shots_off_target": 0.6662 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.5904, "creative_index": 0.5986, "expectedGoals": 0.1064, "expectedAssists": 0.1319, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6165 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7010449767112732, "model_output": 0.701, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": 0.1128, "total": 0.701, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.621231 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.119038 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.098394 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.035164 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021312 } ], "others_margin": 0.175657 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.058980125933885574, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.002 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 0.059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589752 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057199 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044533 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.038526 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03625 } ], "others_margin": 0.04029 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10196692496538162, "model_output": 0.102, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 0.102, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.2799 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.080986 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.073492 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.070347 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.064888 } ], "others_margin": 0.146152 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0613066740334034, "model_output": 0.0613, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0027 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0613, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.71362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.201624 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.12603 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.041943 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.025489 } ], "others_margin": -0.112006 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10497855395078659, "model_output": 0.105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": 0.008, "total": 0.105, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.516458 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.188315 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.141165 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.093941 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.084221 } ], "others_margin": 0.079764 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23294705152511597, "model_output": 0.2329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.2329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.760318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.187646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100015 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07368 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.049488 } ], "others_margin": 0.014233 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8991128206253052, "model_output": 0.8991, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5533 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3088 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.8991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.308818 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.062824 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.050147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.034991 } ], "others_margin": 0.000141 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729293346405029, "model_output": 6.7293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0992 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 6.7293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02339 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015529 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011447 } ], "others_margin": -0.032741 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7037, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.1024, "assist_rate": 0.1024, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goals": 0.1054, "goal_rate": 0.1054, "shots_on_target": 0.2338, "total_shots": 0.9026, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 27.14, "total_pass": 17.9622, "accurate_pass": 14.82, "duels_won": 1.0494, "total_long_balls": 1.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4896, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.686, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.134, "crosses_total": 0.4762, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 22.4776, "possession_lost": 4.4373, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3652, "aerial_won": 0.4196, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.1137, "tackles": 0.2032, "clearances": 0.3048, "total_contest": 0.6429, "won_contest": 0.3506, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3659, "fouls_drawn": 0.076, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0853, "ball_carries": 11.1201, "total_progression": 36.0862, "progressive_carries": 0.4605, "shots_off_target": 0.6687 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0038, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0192)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7037, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.1004, "assist_rate": 0.1004, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.233, "total_shots": 0.8982, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 27.14, "total_pass": 17.9622, "accurate_pass": 14.82, "duels_won": 1.0494, "total_long_balls": 1.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4896, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.686, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.134, "crosses_total": 0.4783, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 22.4776, "possession_lost": 4.4373, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3652, "aerial_won": 0.4196, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.1491, "tackles_won": 0.1153, "tackles": 0.2032, "clearances": 0.3048, "total_contest": 0.6429, "won_contest": 0.3506, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3645, "fouls_drawn": 0.0764, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0853, "ball_carries": 11.1201, "total_progression": 36.0862, "progressive_carries": 0.4605, "shots_off_target": 0.6687 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0192, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3016, "prior_reliability": 0.2067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.1 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.42)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6915, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.0987, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.1034, "goal_rate": 0.1034, "shots_on_target": 0.229, "total_shots": 0.8861, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 26.67, "total_pass": 17.6511, "accurate_pass": 14.5634, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 1.9342, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4638, "total_own_half_passes": 5.149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6048, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9585, "crosses_total": 0.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.1682, "touches": 22.0883, "possession_lost": 4.3605, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3416, "aerial_won": 0.4123, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.1465, "tackles_won": 0.1133, "tackles": 0.1997, "clearances": 0.2995, "total_contest": 0.6318, "won_contest": 0.3445, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3582, "fouls_drawn": 0.0751, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "ball_carries": 10.9275, "total_progression": 35.4613, "progressive_carries": 0.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.6571, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.416, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.67, "projection_minutes": 27.14, "minutes_scale": 0.9827, "appearance_probability": 0.416 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6915, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.0987, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.1034, "goal_rate": 0.1034, "shots_on_target": 0.229, "total_shots": 0.8861, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 26.67, "total_pass": 17.6511, "accurate_pass": 14.5634, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 1.9342, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4638, "total_own_half_passes": 5.149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6048, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9585, "crosses_total": 0.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.1682, "touches": 22.0883, "possession_lost": 4.3605, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3416, "aerial_won": 0.4123, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.1465, "tackles_won": 0.1133, "tackles": 0.1997, "clearances": 0.2995, "total_contest": 0.6318, "won_contest": 0.3445, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3582, "fouls_drawn": 0.0751, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "ball_carries": 10.9275, "total_progression": 35.4613, "progressive_carries": 0.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.6571, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.416, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6915, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0987, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1034, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.229, "total_shots": 0.8861, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 26.67, "total_pass": 17.6511, "accurate_pass": 14.5634, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 1.9342, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4638, "total_own_half_passes": 5.149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6048, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9585, "crosses_total": 0.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.1682, "touches": 22.0883, "possession_lost": 4.3605, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3416, "aerial_won": 0.4123, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.1465, "tackles_won": 0.1133, "tackles": 0.1997, "clearances": 0.2995, "total_contest": 0.6318, "won_contest": 0.3445, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3582, "fouls_drawn": 0.0751, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "ball_carries": 10.9275, "total_progression": 35.4613, "progressive_carries": 0.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.6571, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.416, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.416, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6915, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0987, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1034, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.229, "total_shots": 0.8861, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 26.67, "total_pass": 17.6511, "accurate_pass": 14.5634, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 1.9342, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4638, "total_own_half_passes": 5.149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6048, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9585, "crosses_total": 0.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.1682, "touches": 22.0883, "possession_lost": 4.3605, "dispossessed": 0.1937, "duels_lost": 1.3416, "aerial_won": 0.4123, "aerial_lost": 0.2726, "interceptions": 0.1465, "tackles_won": 0.1133, "tackles": 0.1997, "clearances": 0.2995, "total_contest": 0.6318, "won_contest": 0.3445, "challenges_lost": 0.2406, "fouls": 0.3582, "fouls_drawn": 0.0751, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "ball_carries": 10.9275, "total_progression": 35.4613, "progressive_carries": 0.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.6571, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.416, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.67, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3134, "fifa_rank": 1975.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "player_id": 980410, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 179, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "expected_assists": 0.1548, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083239, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083346, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 976, "combined_rank_score": 481.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7782, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Beñat Turrientes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Giay", "ranking": 971 }, { "player_name": "Jin-woo Jo", "ranking": 972 }, { "player_name": "Zach Muscat", "ranking": 973 }, { "player_name": "Odil Abdumazhidov", "ranking": 974 }, { "player_name": "Otabek Boymurodov", "ranking": 975 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Aldo", "ranking": 977 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Henrique", "ranking": 978 }, { "player_name": "Azizkhon Isokov", "ranking": 979 }, { "player_name": "Esteban Páez", "ranking": 980 }, { "player_name": "Krzysztof Piątek", "ranking": 981 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.779, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.779, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.411, "market_value_adjustment": 1.001, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 19.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (31 historical appearances) to 20.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.41); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 19.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5162, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.034, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1213, "total_shots": 0.5186, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 19.85, "total_pass": 13.2904, "accurate_pass": 11.3239, "duels_won": 1.5817, "total_long_balls": 1.2928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5973, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4462, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9774, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3465, "crosses_total": 0.2602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2891, "possession_lost": 3.3773, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 1.4793, "aerial_won": 0.2522, "aerial_lost": 0.2133, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4029, "tackles": 0.71, "clearances": 0.4391, "total_contest": 0.7267, "won_contest": 0.2602, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4346, "fouls_drawn": 0.4069, "blocks": 0.1136, "big_chances_created": 0.0799, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.3448, "total_progression": 29.0084, "progressive_carries": 0.7624, "shots_off_target": 0.3973 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.8376, "creative_index": 0.3143, "expectedGoals": 0.0258, "expectedAssists": 0.0382, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4894 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5161634087562561, "model_output": 0.5162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3748 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0516, "total": 0.5162, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544328 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.057838 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.045971 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.043839 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038307 } ], "others_margin": 0.105526 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.031573597341775894, "model_output": 0.0316, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0011 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.615075 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.166206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.105538 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.059791 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.033558 } ], "others_margin": -0.017664 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0340011790394783, "model_output": 0.034, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.034, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31575 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.148909 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085213 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067315 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060586 } ], "others_margin": -0.264515 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03013567440211773, "model_output": 0.0301, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0301, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.507149 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.343861 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035694 } ], "others_margin": -0.261046 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05000229924917221, "model_output": 0.05, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.05, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356076 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.1907 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.120186 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.106695 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.103056 } ], "others_margin": -0.247786 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12133973836898804, "model_output": 0.1213, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1568 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 0.1213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.656567 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.130328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088906 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023322 } ], "others_margin": -0.166041 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.518591046333313, "model_output": 0.5186, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4124 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.0897, "total": 0.5186, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.41242 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029856 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.028936 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027237 } ], "others_margin": -0.089755 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778224468231201, "model_output": 6.7782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 6.7782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090064 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037356 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017044 } ], "others_margin": -0.020913 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5167, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.034, "expected_goals": 0.0302, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1215, "total_shots": 0.5192, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 19.85, "total_pass": 13.3037, "accurate_pass": 11.3352, "duels_won": 1.5833, "total_long_balls": 1.2941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5979, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9814, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3538, "crosses_total": 0.2605, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3064, "possession_lost": 3.3807, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.4808, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4033, "tackles": 0.7107, "clearances": 0.4395, "total_contest": 0.7274, "won_contest": 0.2605, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.435, "fouls_drawn": 0.4073, "blocks": 0.1137, "big_chances_created": 0.08, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.3511, "total_progression": 29.0374, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.3977 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0175)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5167, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.0334, "expected_goals": 0.0302, "goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "shots_on_target": 0.1234, "total_shots": 0.5155, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 19.85, "total_pass": 13.3037, "accurate_pass": 11.3352, "duels_won": 1.5833, "total_long_balls": 1.2941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5979, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9814, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3538, "crosses_total": 0.2586, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3064, "possession_lost": 3.3807, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.4808, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4016, "tackles": 0.7107, "clearances": 0.4395, "total_contest": 0.7274, "won_contest": 0.2605, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4015, "blocks": 0.1137, "big_chances_created": 0.08, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.3511, "total_progression": 29.0374, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.3977 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0175, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2206, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.435, "after": 0.4274 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4073, "after": 0.4015 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 20.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5336, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0508, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "shots_on_target": 0.1274, "total_shots": 0.5382, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 20.5, "total_pass": 13.7393, "accurate_pass": 11.7064, "duels_won": 1.6351, "total_long_balls": 1.3365, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6175, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1118, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5946, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8731, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.5293, "aerial_won": 0.2608, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4148, "tackles": 0.734, "clearances": 0.4539, "total_contest": 0.7512, "won_contest": 0.269, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.4146, "blocks": 0.1174, "big_chances_created": 0.0826, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.5591, "total_progression": 29.9882, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.5, "projection_minutes": 19.85, "minutes_scale": 1.0327, "appearance_probability": 0.411 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5336, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0508, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "shots_on_target": 0.1274, "total_shots": 0.5382, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 20.5, "total_pass": 13.7393, "accurate_pass": 11.7064, "duels_won": 1.6351, "total_long_balls": 1.3365, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6175, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1118, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5946, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8731, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.5293, "aerial_won": 0.2608, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4148, "tackles": 0.734, "clearances": 0.4539, "total_contest": 0.7512, "won_contest": 0.269, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.4146, "blocks": 0.1174, "big_chances_created": 0.0826, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.5591, "total_progression": 29.9882, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5336, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1274, "total_shots": 0.5382, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 20.5, "total_pass": 13.7393, "accurate_pass": 11.7064, "duels_won": 1.6351, "total_long_balls": 1.3365, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6175, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1118, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5946, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8731, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.5293, "aerial_won": 0.2608, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4148, "tackles": 0.734, "clearances": 0.4539, "total_contest": 0.7512, "won_contest": 0.269, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.4146, "blocks": 0.1174, "big_chances_created": 0.0826, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.5591, "total_progression": 29.9882, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.411, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5336, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1274, "total_shots": 0.5382, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 20.5, "total_pass": 13.7393, "accurate_pass": 11.7064, "duels_won": 1.6351, "total_long_balls": 1.3365, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6175, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1118, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5946, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8731, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.5293, "aerial_won": 0.2608, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4148, "tackles": 0.734, "clearances": 0.4539, "total_contest": 0.7512, "won_contest": 0.269, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.4146, "blocks": 0.1174, "big_chances_created": 0.0826, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.5591, "total_progression": 29.9882, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 976, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Gonçalo Guedes": { "player_id": 280979, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1542, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "expected_assists": 0.0956, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.05, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "expected_assists": 0.035, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3407, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1098, "expected_assists": 0.2497, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083701, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5025, "expected_assists": 0.1952, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 961, "combined_rank_score": 481.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7742, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking": 956 }, { "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking": 957 }, { "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking": 958 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 }, { "player_name": "Dani Ceballos", "ranking": 963 }, { "player_name": "Han-been Yang", "ranking": 964 }, { "player_name": "Alexsey Kozlov", "ranking": 965 }, { "player_name": "Ji-hun Cho", "ranking": 966 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.756, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.722, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9988, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (39 historical appearances) to 20.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0785, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.6568, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3747, "accurate_pass": 6.5106, "duels_won": 1.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2672, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2137, "crosses_total": 1.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.3704, "touches": 15.2563, "possession_lost": 4.6926, "dispossessed": 0.3909, "duels_lost": 1.2864, "aerial_lost": 0.2696, "total_contest": 1.0781, "won_contest": 0.5869, "ball_recovery": 1.5491, "challenges_lost": 0.0465, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.199, "assists": 0.0547, "assist_rate": 0.0547, "interceptions": 0.0891, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.4488, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2104, "xgot": 0.1295, "offsides": 0.0462, "ball_carries": 5.4739, "total_progression": 24.3625, "progressive_carries": 1.1346, "shots_off_target": 0.7218 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.227, "expectedGoals": 0.1167, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.4347, "accuratePass": 15.2037, "totalShots": 1.6907 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0784783810377121, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58354 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.161222 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044362 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.039668 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037451 } ], "others_margin": -0.136107 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08940873295068741, "model_output": 0.0894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.0894, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.564931 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.158593 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.048344 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.04785 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.043548 } ], "others_margin": -0.15087 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30345261096954346, "model_output": 0.3035, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 0.3035, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511856 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064266 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.06132 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.052407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048875 } ], "others_margin": -0.084428 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0252488851547241, "model_output": 1.0252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0401 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 1.0252, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10214 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.049623 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044989 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.04007 } ], "others_margin": 0.006721 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06930068135261536, "model_output": 0.0693, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0029 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.0693, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357339 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070902 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.04931 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041045 } ], "others_margin": 0.086953 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6567769050598145, "model_output": 0.6568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2224 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 0.6568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.400964 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.151308 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.125661 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045645 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.029954 } ], "others_margin": 0.083356 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774214744567871, "model_output": 6.7742, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 6.7742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093099 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051269 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.015738 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013707 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013145 } ], "others_margin": 0.033866 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 1.024, "expected_assists": 0.0692, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5295, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1524, "fouls_drawn": 0.1988, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2495, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.0461, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.7209 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0030)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.089, "goal_rate": 0.089, "shots_on_target": 0.3061, "total_shots": 1.0287, "expected_assists": 0.0692, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5262, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1519, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "assists": 0.0544, "assist_rate": 0.0544, "interceptions": 0.0887, "tackles_won": 0.25, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.7209 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2426, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 20.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.79, "projection_minutes": 21.83, "minutes_scale": 0.9524, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.0528 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 961, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "scorer_weight": 0.0571, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "provider_weight": 0.0572, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0546, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Job Ochieng": { "player_id": 1111081, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 185, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.189, "expected_assists": 0.079, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0832, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083292, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6248, "combined_rank_score": 4513.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5958, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Job Ochieng", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Zenón", "ranking": 6243 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Abrego", "ranking": 6244 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Sanguinetti", "ranking": 6245 }, { "player_name": "Matías Mansilla", "ranking": 6246 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Mihăilă", "ranking": 6247 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Juan de Dios Pintado", "ranking": 6249 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Scarpeta", "ranking": 6250 }, { "player_name": "Matías Abaldo", "ranking": 6251 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Insua", "ranking": 6252 }, { "player_name": "Juan Ignacio Díaz", "ranking": 6253 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.356033856478426, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5616379025672013, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9936, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.2323, "total_shots": 0.7313, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.3639, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 8.8513, "accurate_pass": 5.4626, "duels_won": 1.3887, "total_long_balls": 0.2809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2809, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9009, "crosses_total": 0.6113, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8601, "possession_lost": 7.5617, "dispossessed": 0.7191, "duels_lost": 4.8853, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "total_contest": 2.0583, "won_contest": 0.7191, "ball_recovery": 1.9504, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 1.7687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3887, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.7775, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8426, "total_progression": 45.5367, "progressive_carries": 1.8921, "shots_off_target": 0.499 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.4332, "expectedGoals": 0.0954, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.6272, "accuratePass": 7.8667, "totalShots": 1.5062 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06518757343292236, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0151, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593003 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143001 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.076483 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0479 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.039591 } ], "others_margin": -0.208592 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08350770175457001, "model_output": 0.0835, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49643 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.168933 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.101171 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.045226 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.043088 } ], "others_margin": -0.125631 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23227909207344055, "model_output": 0.2323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 0.2323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.551116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.083465 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04513 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.044224 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.035566 } ], "others_margin": -0.079765 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7313267588615417, "model_output": 0.7313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5719 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0315 } ], "others": -0.137, "total": 0.7313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.571895 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.068075 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064511 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.03473 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.031537 } ], "others_margin": -0.136936 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.032585062086582184, "model_output": 0.0326, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 0.0326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427437 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.134316 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.097392 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044371 } ], "others_margin": -0.018428 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.36392685770988464, "model_output": 0.3639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2568 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.3639, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480301 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.093309 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080044 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031985 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.023458 } ], "others_margin": 0.029786 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.595788478851318, "model_output": 6.5958, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.07 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0761, "total": 6.5958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069974 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035958 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.021413 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.019977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019694 } ], "others_margin": -0.076113 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9936, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.083, "goal_rate": 0.083, "shots_on_target": 0.2308, "total_shots": 0.7266, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.3616, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 8.7947, "accurate_pass": 5.4276, "duels_won": 1.3798, "total_long_balls": 0.2791, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2791, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8759, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.7458, "possession_lost": 7.5133, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 4.854, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.0451, "won_contest": 0.7145, "ball_recovery": 1.9379, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.7574, "fouls_drawn": 0.3862, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3862, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2791, "clearances": 0.7725, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8116, "total_progression": 45.2453, "progressive_carries": 1.88, "shots_off_target": 0.4958 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9936, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 23.71, "minutes_scale": 1.0694, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0693, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0346, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6248, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "scorer_weight": 0.0444, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0265, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0213, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0203, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Gonçalo Guedes": { "player_id": 280979, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1542, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "expected_assists": 0.0956, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.05, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "expected_assists": 0.035, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3407, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1098, "expected_assists": 0.2497, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083701, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5025, "expected_assists": 0.1952, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 961, "combined_rank_score": 481.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7742, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking": 956 }, { "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking": 957 }, { "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking": 958 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 }, { "player_name": "Dani Ceballos", "ranking": 963 }, { "player_name": "Han-been Yang", "ranking": 964 }, { "player_name": "Alexsey Kozlov", "ranking": 965 }, { "player_name": "Ji-hun Cho", "ranking": 966 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.756, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.722, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9988, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (39 historical appearances) to 20.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0785, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.6568, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3747, "accurate_pass": 6.5106, "duels_won": 1.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2672, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2137, "crosses_total": 1.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.3704, "touches": 15.2563, "possession_lost": 4.6926, "dispossessed": 0.3909, "duels_lost": 1.2864, "aerial_lost": 0.2696, "total_contest": 1.0781, "won_contest": 0.5869, "ball_recovery": 1.5491, "challenges_lost": 0.0465, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.199, "assists": 0.0547, "assist_rate": 0.0547, "interceptions": 0.0891, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.4488, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2104, "xgot": 0.1295, "offsides": 0.0462, "ball_carries": 5.4739, "total_progression": 24.3625, "progressive_carries": 1.1346, "shots_off_target": 0.7218 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.227, "expectedGoals": 0.1167, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.4347, "accuratePass": 15.2037, "totalShots": 1.6907 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0784783810377121, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58354 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.161222 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044362 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.039668 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037451 } ], "others_margin": -0.136107 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08940873295068741, "model_output": 0.0894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.0894, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.564931 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.158593 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.048344 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.04785 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.043548 } ], "others_margin": -0.15087 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30345261096954346, "model_output": 0.3035, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 0.3035, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511856 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064266 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.06132 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.052407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048875 } ], "others_margin": -0.084428 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0252488851547241, "model_output": 1.0252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0401 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 1.0252, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10214 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.049623 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044989 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.04007 } ], "others_margin": 0.006721 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06930068135261536, "model_output": 0.0693, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0029 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.0693, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357339 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070902 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.04931 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041045 } ], "others_margin": 0.086953 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6567769050598145, "model_output": 0.6568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2224 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 0.6568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.400964 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.151308 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.125661 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045645 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.029954 } ], "others_margin": 0.083356 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774214744567871, "model_output": 6.7742, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 6.7742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093099 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051269 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.015738 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013707 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013145 } ], "others_margin": 0.033866 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 1.024, "expected_assists": 0.0692, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5295, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1524, "fouls_drawn": 0.1988, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2495, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.0461, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.7209 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0030)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.089, "goal_rate": 0.089, "shots_on_target": 0.3061, "total_shots": 1.0287, "expected_assists": 0.0692, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5262, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1519, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "assists": 0.0544, "assist_rate": 0.0544, "interceptions": 0.0887, "tackles_won": 0.25, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.7209 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2426, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 20.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.79, "projection_minutes": 21.83, "minutes_scale": 0.9524, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.0528 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 961, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "scorer_weight": 0.0571, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.9797, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6247, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.0871, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.6866, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "finishing_factor": 1.081, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "provider_weight": 0.0572, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0546, "creation_factor": 0.8783, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Job Ochieng": { "player_id": 1111081, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 185, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.189, "expected_assists": 0.079, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0832, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083292, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6248, "combined_rank_score": 4513.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5958, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Job Ochieng", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Zenón", "ranking": 6243 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Abrego", "ranking": 6244 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Sanguinetti", "ranking": 6245 }, { "player_name": "Matías Mansilla", "ranking": 6246 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Mihăilă", "ranking": 6247 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Juan de Dios Pintado", "ranking": 6249 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Scarpeta", "ranking": 6250 }, { "player_name": "Matías Abaldo", "ranking": 6251 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Insua", "ranking": 6252 }, { "player_name": "Juan Ignacio Díaz", "ranking": 6253 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.356033856478426, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5616379025672013, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9936, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.2323, "total_shots": 0.7313, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.3639, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 8.8513, "accurate_pass": 5.4626, "duels_won": 1.3887, "total_long_balls": 0.2809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2809, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9009, "crosses_total": 0.6113, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8601, "possession_lost": 7.5617, "dispossessed": 0.7191, "duels_lost": 4.8853, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "total_contest": 2.0583, "won_contest": 0.7191, "ball_recovery": 1.9504, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 1.7687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3887, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.7775, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8426, "total_progression": 45.5367, "progressive_carries": 1.8921, "shots_off_target": 0.499 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.4332, "expectedGoals": 0.0954, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.6272, "accuratePass": 7.8667, "totalShots": 1.5062 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06518757343292236, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0151, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593003 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143001 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.076483 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0479 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.039591 } ], "others_margin": -0.208592 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08350770175457001, "model_output": 0.0835, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49643 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.168933 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.101171 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.045226 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.043088 } ], "others_margin": -0.125631 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23227909207344055, "model_output": 0.2323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 0.2323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.551116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.083465 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04513 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.044224 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.035566 } ], "others_margin": -0.079765 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7313267588615417, "model_output": 0.7313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5719 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0315 } ], "others": -0.137, "total": 0.7313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.571895 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.068075 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064511 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.03473 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.031537 } ], "others_margin": -0.136936 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.032585062086582184, "model_output": 0.0326, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 0.0326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427437 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.134316 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.097392 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044371 } ], "others_margin": -0.018428 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.36392685770988464, "model_output": 0.3639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2568 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.3639, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480301 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.093309 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080044 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031985 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.023458 } ], "others_margin": 0.029786 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.595788478851318, "model_output": 6.5958, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.07 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0761, "total": 6.5958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069974 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035958 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.021413 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.019977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019694 } ], "others_margin": -0.076113 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9936, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.083, "goal_rate": 0.083, "shots_on_target": 0.2308, "total_shots": 0.7266, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.3616, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 8.7947, "accurate_pass": 5.4276, "duels_won": 1.3798, "total_long_balls": 0.2791, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2791, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8759, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.7458, "possession_lost": 7.5133, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 4.854, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.0451, "won_contest": 0.7145, "ball_recovery": 1.9379, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.7574, "fouls_drawn": 0.3862, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3862, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2791, "clearances": 0.7725, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8116, "total_progression": 45.2453, "progressive_carries": 1.88, "shots_off_target": 0.4958 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9936, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 23.71, "minutes_scale": 1.0694, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.5360, xG scale 0.9798, xA scale 1.3683, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.505, "squad_xg_sum": 1.536, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7149, "team_expected_assists": 0.9782, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9798, "xa_scale": 1.3683, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0693, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0346, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6248, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "scorer_weight": 0.0444, "squad_weight_total": 1.678, "weight_share": 0.0265, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.4909, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4909, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2904 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.777, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.5958, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 9.4053, "accurate_pass": 5.8044, "duels_won": 1.4756, "total_long_balls": 0.2985, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2985, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.145, "crosses_total": 0.6496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9778, "possession_lost": 8.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7145, "duels_lost": 5.191, "aerial_lost": 0.9936, "total_contest": 2.1871, "won_contest": 0.7641, "ball_recovery": 2.0724, "challenges_lost": 0.7725, "fouls": 1.8794, "fouls_drawn": 0.413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.413, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8261, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1456, "total_progression": 48.3864, "progressive_carries": 2.0105, "shots_off_target": 0.5302, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.1635, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0213, "squad_weight_total": 1.0475, "weight_share": 0.0203, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "weight": 0.1787, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1787, "runner_up": "Sergio Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.5, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 392, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2644, "xg_multiplier": 0.8755, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sarr and Héctor Fort in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.264 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1864, "xg_multiplier": 0.8197, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sarr and Héctor Fort in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €19M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.186 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.478, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0848, "xg_multiplier": 0.779, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Héctor Fort", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mamadou Sarr and Héctor Fort in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.0656, "xg_multiplier": 0.781, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.0362, "xg_multiplier": 0.8088, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Gorrotxategi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "xg_contribution": 0.0653, "xg_multiplier": 0.8323, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.714 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Gorrotxategi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "xg_contribution": 0.1248, "xg_multiplier": 1.094, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (LM) is slightly favored against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "xg_contribution": 0.0404, "xg_multiplier": 1.1677, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.436 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Gorrotxategi (CM) is slightly favored against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "xg_contribution": 0.2999, "xg_multiplier": 1.1522, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is slightly favored against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.300 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Orri Óskarsson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.412, "xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orri Óskarsson (ST) is slightly favored against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.412 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ander Barrenetxea", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.1468, "xg_multiplier": 1.0505, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ander Barrenetxea (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "xg_contribution": 0.1615, "xg_multiplier": 1.0757, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (ST) is slightly favored against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.438, "away_midfield_power": 0.563, "home_creative_power": 0.416, "away_creative_power": 0.572, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.59, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.437, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor", "Pablo Martínez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Carlos Soler", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Martínez vs Jon Gorrotxategi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.974, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.029 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 1.505, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Héctor Fort" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jose Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Héctor Fort": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Pablo Martínez vs Jon Gorrotxategi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9436, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0113, "home_midfield_factor": 0.974, "away_midfield_factor": 1.029, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4509, "away_avg_quality": 0.6241, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1731, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.5998, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.3494, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.2965, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3537, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1946, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1132, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7027, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8645 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.974, "result": 0.842 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8336 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9587 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9051, "result": 0.8677 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 0.8484 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9436, "result": 0.8005 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.021, "result": 0.8215 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8215, "result": 0.8215, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3537, "factor": 0.8868, "pre": 0.8215, "result": 0.7285 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7285 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1134, "result": 0.8424 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2, "result": 0.6959 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.6959, "result": 0.696, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 0.696, "result": 0.7009, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9746, "pre": 0.7009, "result": 0.683 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.683 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9485, "input_total": 2.153, "result": 0.6478 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.6478, "result": 0.65, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.65 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1854, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2266 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.029, "result": 1.2621 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.2747 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2747 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0103, "result": 1.2879 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.3016 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0113, "result": 1.3163 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.087, "result": 1.4033 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4033, "result": 1.4033, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3537, "factor": 1.1946, "pre": 1.4033, "result": 1.6763 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6763 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1583, "result": 1.8343 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2, "result": 1.4617 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4617, "result": 1.462, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.462, "result": 1.4516, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0934, "pre": 1.4516, "result": 1.587 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.587 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9485, "input_total": 2.153, "result": 1.5052 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.5052, "result": 1.505, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.505 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1134, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1583, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3537, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0934, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9746, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.7009, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.4516, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.683, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.587, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6959, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4617, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.65, "final_away_lambda": 1.505 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9051, "attack_index": 0.729, "defense_concede_index": 1.085, "form_multiplier": 0.966, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 0.87, "opponent_ppg": 1.51 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0103, "attack_index": 0.988, "defense_concede_index": 1.021, "form_multiplier": 1.034, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.53, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.58, "team_ppg": 1.51, "opponent_ppg": 0.87 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Real Sociedad. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-1-4-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.696, Away 1.462). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.650, Away 1.505 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 1.505, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.696, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.462 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:31:59Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }