{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1237, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.087, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0927, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2606, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1237 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0927 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.087 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0852 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0799 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0687, "0-1": 0.0927, "0-2": 0.0652, "0-3": 0.0302, "0-4": 0.0105, "0-5": 0.0029, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.087, "1-1": 0.1237, "1-2": 0.0852, "1-3": 0.0395, "1-4": 0.0137, "1-5": 0.0038, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0575, "2-1": 0.0799, "2-2": 0.0556, "2-3": 0.0257, "2-4": 0.0089, "2-5": 0.0025, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.025, "3-1": 0.0348, "3-2": 0.0242, "3-3": 0.0112, "3-4": 0.0039, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0082, "4-1": 0.0113, "4-2": 0.0079, "4-3": 0.0037, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0021, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0021, "5-3": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3501, "draw": 0.2606, "away_win": 0.3893 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5051, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4949, "btts_yes": 0.5485, "btts_no": 0.4515, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2491, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2712 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.89 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.85 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Osasuna 3W-0D-7L vs Racing Club over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ante Budimir, Yassir Zabiri", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Iván Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.305, "away_lambda": 1.39, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1237, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3501, "draw": 0.2606, "away_win": 0.3893 }, "favorite": "Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3893, "fair_spread": -0.085, "fair_total": 2.695, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.305, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.39, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5051, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5485, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2491, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2712, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.6025, "probability": 0.4526, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yassir Zabiri (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.5614, "probability": 0.4296, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alejandro Catena (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1917, "probability": 0.1744, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2273, "probability": 0.2033, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.695, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 836, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.1, "possession_home_pct": 50.7, "possession_away_pct": 49.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3893, "script": "Racing Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 2.69.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Racing Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Racing Club chance creation leans on Yassir Zabiri against Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Romain Del Castillo, Jonathan Dubasin.", "Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Yassir Zabiri; bench watchlist: Andrés Martín, Giorgi Guliashvili.", "Assist usage should flow through Alejandro Catena, Iñigo Vicente; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Racing Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.35 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Racing Club.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Aitor Fernández": { "player_id": 99516, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 182, "market_value": 375000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.5592 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.575 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": -0.0894 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2518 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 46, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.7965 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2135, "combined_rank_score": 806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1544.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8879, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aitor Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oleksiy Shchebetun", "ranking": 2130 }, { "player_name": "Nurzhakhon Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2131 }, { "player_name": "Nosirzhon Abdusalomov", "ranking": 2132 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Ariel Silva", "ranking": 2133 }, { "player_name": "Tjay De Barr", "ranking": 2134 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Franco Bechtholdt", "ranking": 2136 }, { "player_name": "Lutsharel Geertruida", "ranking": 2137 }, { "player_name": "Vlatko Stojanovski", "ranking": 2138 }, { "player_name": "Islom Tukhtakhuzhaev", "ranking": 2139 }, { "player_name": "Juan Figueroa", "ranking": 2140 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.562, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Osasuna, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0276, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.2874, "accurate_pass": 19.0086, "total_long_balls": 13.9425, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6637, "touches": 39.2707, "clearances": 0.9129, "ball_recovery": 8.4619, "high_claims": 0.9129, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6862, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6862, "saves_inside_box": 1.6932, "possession_lost": 9.5455, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5317, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9972 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 46.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 8.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.274, "save_contribution": 3.3025, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9125, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 14.4492, "passValueNormalized": 0.0446, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.9085 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0276458263397217, "model_output": 3.0276, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 3.0276, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012875 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.0073 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.005681 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.005536 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005059 } ], "others_margin": 0.002689 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.06813616305589676, "model_output": -0.0681, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": -0.0681, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": -0.016341 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016084 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015984 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.012702 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011914 } ], "others_margin": -0.022794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.887864112854004, "model_output": 6.8879, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 6.8879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.028456 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.023515 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018456 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016346 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014597 } ], "others_margin": -0.008169 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 375000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3505 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.8, "after": 13.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.13, "after": 3.23 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.08, "after": 1.11 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2135, "fifa_rank": 1544.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, 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1.3652, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0674, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0017, "accurate_pass": 18.8166, "total_long_balls": 13.8017, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6166, "touches": 38.8741, "clearances": 0.9037, "ball_recovery": 8.3764, "high_claims": 0.9037, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.6793, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6793, "saves_inside_box": 1.6761, "possession_lost": 9.4491, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, 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}, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1245, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 2 }, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0333, "total": 0.1449, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.356188 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.263651 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133962 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07203 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044841 } ], "others_margin": -0.207279 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5831965208053589, "model_output": 0.5832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1303 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0216 } ], "others": -0.1147, "total": 0.5832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295456 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.065007 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04583 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.021625 } ], "others_margin": -0.114691 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.096992492675781, "model_output": 7.097, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.12 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0189, "total": 7.097, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.11997 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.048181 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.041978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030378 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015619 } ], "others_margin": 0.01905 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4999, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.1445, "total_shots": 0.5816, "rating": 7.097, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 46.4826, "accurate_pass": 40.4093, "duels_won": 4.7322, "total_long_balls": 4.8737, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0986, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3728, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6178, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1098, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7915, "crosses_total": 1.6902, "crosses_accurate": 0.5396, "touches": 58.956, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 0.2925, "duels_lost": 2.4286, "aerial_won": 0.5907, "aerial_lost": 0.3352, "interceptions": 0.9168, "tackles_won": 0.6211, "tackles": 1.355, "clearances": 0.7913, "total_contest": 1.5755, "won_contest": 1.0956, "challenges_lost": 0.6962, "fouls": 0.6895, "fouls_drawn": 1.6908, "blocks": 0.1602, "big_chances_created": 0.2807, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0029, "ball_carries": 18.6855, "total_progression": 43.3283, "progressive_carries": 1.151, "shots_off_target": 0.4371 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4999, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "assists": 0.0906, "assist_rate": 0.0906, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goals": 0.0485, "goal_rate": 0.0485, "shots_on_target": 0.1428, "total_shots": 0.5746, "rating": 7.097, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 46.4826, "accurate_pass": 40.4093, "duels_won": 4.7322, "total_long_balls": 4.8737, "accurate_long_balls": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4196, "goals": 0.4536, "goal_rate": 0.4536, "shots_on_target": 1.1767, "total_shots": 2.7238, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.5808, "rating": 6.8129, "minutes": 86.57, "total_pass": 10.6145, "accurate_pass": 6.2593, "duels_won": 6.2294, "total_long_balls": 0.3042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1442, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2366, "crosses_total": 0.1215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.0093, "possession_lost": 8.8777, "dispossessed": 0.7508, "duels_lost": 6.1215, "aerial_lost": 3.2153, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.514, "ball_recovery": 1.2239, "challenges_lost": 0.2213, "fouls": 1.5084, "fouls_drawn": 1.5669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.063, "tackles_won": 0.4576, 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0.4657, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 1.1898, "blocks": 0.2806, "big_chances_created": 0.1078, "big_chances_missed": 0.8206, "xgot": 0.659, "offsides": 0.497, "ball_carries": 4.9003, "total_progression": 7.665, "progressive_carries": 0.5134, "shots_off_target": 1.5471 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4115, "goals": 0.4487, "goal_rate": 0.4487, "shots_on_target": 1.1629, "total_shots": 2.6815, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.5808, "rating": 6.8129, "minutes": 86.57, "total_pass": 10.6145, "accurate_pass": 6.2593, "duels_won": 6.2294, "total_long_balls": 0.3042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1442, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2366, "crosses_total": 0.1245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.0093, "possession_lost": 8.8777, "dispossessed": 0.7508, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6025, "goal_rate": 0.4487, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1629, "total_shots": 2.6815, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "key_pass": 0.5808, "rating": 6.8129, "minutes": 86.57, "total_pass": 10.6145, "accurate_pass": 6.2593, "duels_won": 6.2294, "total_long_balls": 0.3042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1442, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2366, "crosses_total": 0.1245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.0093, "possession_lost": 8.8777, "dispossessed": 0.7508, "duels_lost": 6.1215, "aerial_lost": 3.2153, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.514, "ball_recovery": 1.2239, "challenges_lost": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6025, "goal_rate": 0.4487, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1629, "total_shots": 2.6815, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "key_pass": 0.5808, "rating": 6.8129, "minutes": 86.57, "total_pass": 10.6145, "accurate_pass": 6.2593, "duels_won": 6.2294, "total_long_balls": 0.3042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1442, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2366, "crosses_total": 0.1245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.0093, "possession_lost": 8.8777, "dispossessed": 0.7508, "duels_lost": 6.1215, "aerial_lost": 3.2153, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.514, "ball_recovery": 1.2239, "challenges_lost": 0.2213, "fouls": 1.5107, "fouls_drawn": 1.577, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0624, "tackles_won": 0.4657, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 1.1898, "blocks": 0.2806, "big_chances_created": 0.1078, "big_chances_missed": 0.8047, "xgot": 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0.3939, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.284112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.12501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.093836 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.088741 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.060708 } ], "others_margin": -0.227006 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2057572603225708, "model_output": 1.2058, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.143 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.0777, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134498 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085379 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065791 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.047791 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043129 } ], "others_margin": -0.099893 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9538189172744751, "model_output": 0.9538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1515 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": -0.0584, "total": 0.9538, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.072425 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.054104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.042909 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03524 } ], "others_margin": -0.05939 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.799646377563477, "model_output": 6.7996, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 6.7996, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046388 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.021302 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015136 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.00832 } ], "others_margin": -0.006107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.1519, "goal_rate": 0.1519, "shots_on_target": 0.393, "total_shots": 1.2032, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.9518, "rating": 6.7996, "minutes": 69.58, "total_pass": 23.2738, "accurate_pass": 18.7318, "duels_won": 3.9459, "total_long_balls": 2.7199, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2382, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8642, "crosses_total": 4.1566, "crosses_accurate": 1.127, "touches": 38.8739, "possession_lost": 9.9549, "dispossessed": 0.4815, "duels_lost": 4.064, "aerial_lost": 1.2404, "total_contest": 1.1607, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 3.1681, "challenges_lost": 0.7059, "fouls": 1.0668, "fouls_drawn": 0.5838, "assists": 0.1614, "assist_rate": 0.1614, "interceptions": 0.3693, "tackles_won": 1.3738, "tackles": 2.0057, "clearances": 1.4351, "blocks": 0.1188, "big_chances_created": 0.2372, "big_chances_missed": 0.1599, "xgot": 0.0598, "offsides": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 10.0781, "total_progression": 18.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.8102 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.1507, "goal_rate": 0.1507, "shots_on_target": 0.3972, "total_shots": 1.2083, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.9518, "rating": 6.7996, "minutes": 69.58, "total_pass": 23.2738, "accurate_pass": 18.7318, "duels_won": 3.9459, "total_long_balls": 2.7199, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2382, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8642, "crosses_total": 4.1666, "crosses_accurate": 1.127, "touches": 38.8739, "possession_lost": 9.9549, "dispossessed": 0.4815, "duels_lost": 4.064, "aerial_lost": 1.2404, "total_contest": 1.1607, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 3.1681, "challenges_lost": 0.7059, "fouls": 1.0656, "fouls_drawn": 0.5828, "assists": 0.1602, "assist_rate": 0.1602, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 1.3702, "tackles": 2.0057, "clearances": 1.4351, "blocks": 0.1188, "big_chances_created": 0.2372, "big_chances_missed": 0.1599, "xgot": 0.0598, "offsides": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 10.0781, "total_progression": 18.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.8102 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7731, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.1566, "after": 4.1666 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2032, "after": 1.2083 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.1507, "goal_rate": 0.1507, "shots_on_target": 0.3972, "total_shots": 1.2083, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.9518, "rating": 6.7996, "minutes": 69.58, "total_pass": 23.2738, "accurate_pass": 18.7318, "duels_won": 3.9459, "total_long_balls": 2.7199, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2382, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8642, "crosses_total": 4.1666, "crosses_accurate": 1.127, "touches": 38.8739, "possession_lost": 9.9549, "dispossessed": 0.4815, "duels_lost": 4.064, "aerial_lost": 1.2404, "total_contest": 1.1607, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 3.1681, "challenges_lost": 0.7059, "fouls": 1.0656, "fouls_drawn": 0.5828, "assists": 0.1602, "assist_rate": 0.1602, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 1.3702, "tackles": 2.0057, "clearances": 1.4351, "blocks": 0.1188, 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1.1607, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 3.1681, "challenges_lost": 0.7059, "fouls": 1.0656, "fouls_drawn": 0.5828, "assists": 0.1602, "assist_rate": 0.1602, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 1.3702, "tackles": 2.0057, "clearances": 1.4351, "blocks": 0.1188, "big_chances_created": 0.2372, "big_chances_missed": 0.1458, "xgot": 0.0545, "offsides": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 10.0781, "total_progression": 18.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.7387, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ramón", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ramón", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ramón", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1007 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2083, "after": 1.1017 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8102, "after": 0.7387 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3972, "after": 0.3622 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1599, "after": 0.1458 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1507, "after": 0.1374 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1104, "after": 0.1007 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0598, "after": 0.0545 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1007, "goal_rate": 0.1374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3622, "total_shots": 1.1017, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.9518, "rating": 6.7996, "minutes": 69.58, "total_pass": 23.2738, "accurate_pass": 18.7318, "duels_won": 3.9459, "total_long_balls": 2.7199, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2382, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8642, "crosses_total": 4.1666, "crosses_accurate": 1.127, "touches": 38.8739, "possession_lost": 9.9549, "dispossessed": 0.4815, "duels_lost": 4.064, "aerial_lost": 1.2404, "total_contest": 1.1607, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 3.1681, "challenges_lost": 0.7059, "fouls": 1.0656, "fouls_drawn": 0.5828, "assist_rate": 0.1602, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 1.3702, "tackles": 2.0057, "clearances": 1.4351, "blocks": 0.1188, "big_chances_created": 0.2372, "big_chances_missed": 0.1458, "xgot": 0.0545, "offsides": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 10.0781, "total_progression": 18.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.7387, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ramón", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ramón", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { 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"progressive_carries": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.7387, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ramón", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ramón", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2435, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1007, "after": 0.1474 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5605, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0489, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0721, "shots_on_target": 0.3424, "total_shots": 0.9195, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 78.46, "total_pass": 37.0544, "accurate_pass": 28.8065, "duels_won": 5.5846, "total_long_balls": 3.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4228, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8459, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9606, "crosses_total": 0.0425, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0561, "possession_lost": 9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 3.2092, "aerial_lost": 2.3156, "interceptions": 0.6437, "tackles_won": 0.6967, "tackles": 1.4273, "clearances": 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1.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4228, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8459, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9606, "crosses_total": 0.0422, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0561, "possession_lost": 9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 3.2092, "aerial_lost": 2.3156, "interceptions": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.7007, "tackles": 1.4273, "clearances": 1.5348, "total_contest": 0.4833, "won_contest": 0.4291, "challenges_lost": 0.7778, "fouls": 1.4341, "fouls_drawn": 0.5221, "blocks": 0.4776, "big_chances_created": 0.0051, "big_chances_missed": 0.115, "xgot": 0.0527, "ball_carries": 10.6688, "total_progression": 31.2932, "progressive_carries": 0.5303, "shots_off_target": 0.5771 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8718, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats 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9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 2.3156, "interceptions": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.7007, "tackles": 1.4273, "clearances": 1.5348, "total_contest": 0.4833, "won_contest": 0.4291, "challenges_lost": 0.7778, "fouls": 1.4341, "fouls_drawn": 0.5221, "blocks": 0.4776, "big_chances_created": 0.0051, "big_chances_missed": 0.1191, "xgot": 0.0546, "ball_carries": 10.6688, "total_progression": 31.2932, "progressive_carries": 0.5303, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0353, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "opponent_faced": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Íñigo 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integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5605, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3523, "total_shots": 0.9502, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 78.46, "total_pass": 37.0544, "accurate_pass": 28.8065, "duels_won": 5.5846, "total_long_balls": 3.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4228, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8459, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9606, "crosses_total": 0.0422, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0561, "possession_lost": 9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 2.3156, "interceptions": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.7007, "tackles": 1.4273, "clearances": 1.5348, "total_contest": 0.4833, "won_contest": 0.4291, "challenges_lost": 0.7778, "fouls": 1.4341, "fouls_drawn": 0.5221, "blocks": 0.4776, "big_chances_created": 0.0051, "big_chances_missed": 0.1191, "xgot": 0.0546, "ball_carries": 10.6688, "total_progression": 31.2932, "progressive_carries": 0.5303, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0353, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "opponent_faced": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5605, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1287, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3523, "total_shots": 0.9502, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 78.46, "total_pass": 37.0544, "accurate_pass": 28.8065, "duels_won": 5.5846, "total_long_balls": 3.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4228, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8459, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9606, "crosses_total": 0.0422, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0561, "possession_lost": 9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 2.3156, "interceptions": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.7007, "tackles": 1.4273, "clearances": 1.5348, "total_contest": 0.4833, "won_contest": 0.4291, "challenges_lost": 0.7778, "fouls": 1.4341, "fouls_drawn": 0.5221, "blocks": 0.4776, "big_chances_created": 0.0051, "big_chances_missed": 0.1191, "xgot": 0.0799, "ball_carries": 10.6688, "total_progression": 31.2932, 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"global_player_rank": 3360, "fifa_rank": 1953.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5605, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1287, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3523, "total_shots": 0.9502, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 78.46, "total_pass": 37.0544, "accurate_pass": 28.8065, "duels_won": 5.5846, "total_long_balls": 3.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4228, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8459, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9606, "crosses_total": 0.0422, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0561, "possession_lost": 9.7819, "dispossessed": 0.4235, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1208, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "scorer_weight": 0.1158, "squad_weight_total": 1.3652, "weight_share": 0.0848, "finishing_factor": 0.8999, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5605, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1287, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3523, "total_shots": 0.9502, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 78.46, "total_pass": 37.0544, "accurate_pass": 28.8065, "duels_won": 5.5846, 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"margin": 0.056118 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023553 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017148 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014943 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009829 } ], "others_margin": -0.05204 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759755611419678, "model_output": 6.7598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 6.7598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016774 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010969 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010503 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008257 } ], "others_margin": -0.002953 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122616 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05248 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.027326 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02247 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011659 } ], "others_margin": 0.002483 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.885733127593994, "model_output": 6.8857, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 6.8857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023018 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.021994 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019768 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013757 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012712 } ], "others_margin": 0.009781 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "assists": 0.1552, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0184, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "assists": 0.1552, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0184, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "assists": 0.1552, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0184, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0184, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.1917, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1231, "creation_factor": 1.1343 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0166, "after": 0.0243 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1309, "after": 0.1917 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.1917, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1231, "creation_factor": 1.1343, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 145, "fifa_rank": 162.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7696, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.186, "crosses_total": 0.0609, "crosses_accurate": 0.0565, "touches": 70.8509, "possession_lost": 8.8306, "dispossessed": 0.2415, "duels_lost": 3.2576, "aerial_lost": 1.7408, "total_contest": 0.4021, "won_contest": 0.2016, "ball_recovery": 3.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1002, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 0.6665, "blocks": 1.0634, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.1917, "shots_on_target": 0.0528, "big_chances_created": 0.1687, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 21.7183, "total_progression": 80.7397, "progressive_carries": 0.5289, "key_pass": 0.4565, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.024, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1231, "creation_factor": 1.1343, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.0248, "scorer_weight": 0.0273, "squad_weight_total": 1.3652, "weight_share": 0.02, "finishing_factor": 1.1231, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9333, "tackles": 1.4446, "tackles_won": 0.8167, "clearances": 6.0829, "aerial_won": 2.2935, "total_shots": 0.4673, "rating": 6.8857, "minutes": 89.48, "total_pass": 56.9016, "accurate_pass": 48.9556, "duels_won": 4.3891, "total_long_balls": 11.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8623, 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"pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.024, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1744, "finishing_factor": 1.1231, "creation_factor": 1.1343, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1744, "assist_rate": 0.1552, "provider_weight": 0.2174, "squad_weight_total": 0.9792, "weight_share": 0.2221, "creation_factor": 1.1343, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alejandro Catena", "weight": 0.2174, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2174, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1419, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Iñigo Arguibide": { "player_id": 1495856, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 178, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9947, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6114, "tackles": 1.4106, "tackles_won": 0.9588, "clearances": 1.9608, "aerial_won": 0.4901, "total_shots": 0.4585, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78.2, "total_pass": 17.5087, "accurate_pass": 13.9773, "duels_won": 3.3655, "total_long_balls": 2.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0929, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.2688, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, "won_contest": 0.7451, "ball_recovery": 2.2496, "challenges_lost": 0.4569, "fouls": 1.2714, "fouls_drawn": 1.0779, "blocks": 0.4768, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.3028, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, "won_contest": 0.7451, "ball_recovery": 2.2496, "challenges_lost": 0.4569, "fouls": 1.2492, "fouls_drawn": 1.0522, "blocks": 0.4768, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0825, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4665, "total_progression": 38.4934, "progressive_carries": 0.9838, "key_pass": 0.4158, "shots_off_target": 0.4585 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0331, "history_matches": 14, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8689, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.2688, "after": 2.3028 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9588, "after": 0.9865 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0779, "after": 1.0522 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2714, "after": 1.2492 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4585, "after": 0.4534 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.611, "tackles": 1.4106, "tackles_won": 0.9865, "clearances": 1.9608, "aerial_won": 0.4901, "total_shots": 0.4585, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78.2, "total_pass": 17.5087, "accurate_pass": 13.9773, "duels_won": 3.3655, "total_long_balls": 2.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0929, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.3028, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, 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} }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.611, "tackles": 1.4106, "tackles_won": 0.9865, "clearances": 1.9608, "aerial_won": 0.4901, "total_shots": 0.4585, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78.2, "total_pass": 17.5087, "accurate_pass": 13.9773, "duels_won": 3.3655, "total_long_balls": 2.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0929, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.3028, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, "won_contest": 0.7451, "ball_recovery": 2.2496, "challenges_lost": 0.4569, "fouls": 1.2492, "fouls_drawn": 1.0522, "blocks": 0.4768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0825, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4665, "total_progression": 38.4934, "progressive_carries": 0.9838, "key_pass": 0.4158, "shots_off_target": 0.4585, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.611, "tackles": 1.4106, "tackles_won": 0.9865, "clearances": 1.9608, "aerial_won": 0.4901, "total_shots": 0.4585, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78.2, "total_pass": 17.5087, "accurate_pass": 13.9773, "duels_won": 3.3655, "total_long_balls": 2.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0929, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.3028, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, "won_contest": 0.7451, "ball_recovery": 2.2496, "challenges_lost": 0.4569, "fouls": 1.2492, "fouls_drawn": 1.0522, "blocks": 0.4768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0825, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4665, "total_progression": 38.4934, "progressive_carries": 0.9838, "key_pass": 0.4158, "shots_off_target": 0.4585, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Shape 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weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.611, "tackles": 1.4106, "tackles_won": 0.9865, "clearances": 1.9608, "aerial_won": 0.4901, "total_shots": 0.4585, "rating": 6.5594, "minutes": 78.2, "total_pass": 17.5087, "accurate_pass": 13.9773, "duels_won": 3.3655, "total_long_balls": 2.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0929, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8844, "crosses_total": 2.3028, "crosses_accurate": 0.3637, "touches": 38.1966, "possession_lost": 10.0833, "dispossessed": 0.503, "duels_lost": 4.1908, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 2.3671, "won_contest": 0.7451, "ball_recovery": 2.2496, "challenges_lost": 0.4569, "fouls": 1.2492, "fouls_drawn": 1.0522, "blocks": 0.4768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Sergio Herrera": { "player_id": 294377, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 5, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.5435 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.321 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.8273 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1581, "combined_rank_score": 645.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 954.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0371, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (42 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.6201, "goals_prevented": -0.0637, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.4357, 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"match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.4239, "save_contribution": 1.1667, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8431, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.0755, "passValueNormalized": 0.0646, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.1387 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.620051383972168, "model_output": 2.6201, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.1473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1376 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 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"accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0119, "total": -0.0637, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052274 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.04665 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.025864 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.014464 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.012705 } ], "others_margin": 0.01178 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.037093162536621, "model_output": 7.0371, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.085 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0135, "total": 7.0371, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084993 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.041052 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017499 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.012888 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.01267 } ], "others_margin": 0.013464 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6143, "goals_prevented": -0.0636, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1485, "fouls_drawn": 0.2569, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5825, "goals_prevented": -0.0636, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2563, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.6143, "after": 2.5825 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.398, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.398, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0371, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected 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"importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0316, "total": 0.5373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.896975 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.155674 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059143 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051689 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.0433 } ], "others_margin": 0.060589 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11675670742988586, "model_output": 0.1168, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0817 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0496, "total": 0.1168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.19319 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081731 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013444 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010377 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009418 } ], "others_margin": -0.049585 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7395830154418945, "model_output": 6.7396, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 6.7396, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021742 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017212 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012572 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010972 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3502, "tackles": 0.4627, "tackles_won": 0.2424, "clearances": 1.8069, "aerial_won": 0.5359, "total_shots": 0.1165, "rating": 6.7396, "minutes": 24.44, "total_pass": 10.8969, "accurate_pass": 9.0876, "duels_won": 1.6765, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4986, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9867, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.038, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1009, "crosses_total": 0.0677, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.592, "possession_lost": 2.0485, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4025, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0937, "won_contest": 0.0937, "ball_recovery": 0.5827, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.6961, "fouls_drawn": 0.2412, "blocks": 0.3449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"stats": { "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles": 0.2571, "tackles_won": 0.1339, "clearances": 1.0042, "aerial_won": 0.2978, "total_shots": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7396, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0647, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.58, "projection_minutes": 24.44, "minutes_scale": 0.5557, "appearance_probability": 0.217 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles": 0.2571, "tackles_won": 0.1339, "clearances": 1.0042, "aerial_won": 0.2978, "total_shots": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7396, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0647, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles": 0.2571, "tackles_won": 0.1339, "clearances": 1.0042, "aerial_won": 0.2978, "total_shots": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7396, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0647, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.217, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles": 0.2571, "tackles_won": 0.1339, "clearances": 1.0042, "aerial_won": 0.2978, "total_shots": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7396, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, 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842419, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 175, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 6.1305, "dispossessed": 0.7848, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0227, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5328, "tackles": 0.7133, "tackles_won": 0.4032, "clearances": 1.1237, "aerial_won": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.3956, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 21.12, "total_pass": 32.3925, "accurate_pass": 27.0586, "duels_won": 3.7841, "total_long_balls": 3.8092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4744, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1115, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.909, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1497, "crosses_total": 1.4194, "crosses_accurate": 0.4247, "touches": 53.7803, "possession_lost": 9.5364, "dispossessed": 0.7848, "duels_lost": 3.0134, "aerial_lost": 0.481, "total_contest": 1.2522, "won_contest": 1.0113, "ball_recovery": 4.2485, "challenges_lost": 0.6031, "fouls": 0.9052, "fouls_drawn": 0.5871, "blocks": 0.2131, "goals": 0.0353, 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"expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 44, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 20, 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"accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3320, "combined_rank_score": 1277.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7016, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 }, { "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking": 3324 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098565 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058213 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.048211 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.029733 } ], "others_margin": 0.009178 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04335824400186539, "model_output": 0.0434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0434, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.537251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.159972 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.079199 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.077496 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.041485 } ], "others_margin": -0.159277 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.19129498302936554, "model_output": 0.1913, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0257, "total": 0.1913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.51643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213223 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047092 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042821 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036925 } ], "others_margin": 0.144415 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.40530556440353394, "model_output": 0.4053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2271 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.0344, "total": 0.4053, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.227112 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027848 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021074 } ], "others_margin": 0.034548 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701625347137451, "model_output": 6.7016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 6.7016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078602 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028815 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02335 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.015432 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.004755 } ], "others_margin": -0.000477 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5606, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0572, "assist_rate": 0.0572, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0433, "shots_on_target": 0.1911, "total_shots": 0.405, "rating": 6.7016, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2138 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5606, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0567, "assist_rate": 0.0567, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1893, "total_shots": 0.4037, "rating": 6.7016, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2138 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.1436, "total_shots": 0.3062, "rating": 6.7016, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.1436, "total_shots": 0.3062, "rating": 6.7016, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.043, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4351, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.2306, "total_shots": 0.807, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 18.6789, "accurate_pass": 15.7296, "duels_won": 1.9662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8817, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7972, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8479, "crosses_total": 0.9831, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5268, "possession_lost": 5.8986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9831, "tackles": 1.9662, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 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"expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0505, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.2338, "total_shots": 0.8183, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 18.9394, "accurate_pass": 15.949, "duels_won": 1.9936, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9777, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.9777, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9713, "crosses_total": 0.9968, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.9107, "possession_lost": 5.9809, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9968, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9968, "tackles": 1.9936, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9968, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 8.9713, "total_progression": 28.2361, "progressive_carries": 0.9968, 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"xgot": 0.0599, "ball_carries": 8.9713, "total_progression": 28.2361, "progressive_carries": 0.9968, "shots_off_target": 0.5844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 63.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 8677, "fifa_rank": 14095.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 63.0 } } ] }, "Romain Del Castillo": { "player_id": 825681, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 172, "market_value": 6400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.0263, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.276837 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.150337 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.134129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.104517 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.08478 } ], "others_margin": -0.142609 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.26951083540916443, "model_output": 0.2695, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2494 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 0.2695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462575 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07782 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.072674 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.071098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061844 } ], "others_margin": -0.169674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5749287605285645, "model_output": 6.5749, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0899, "total": 6.5749, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017633 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013466 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012848 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012835 } ], "others_margin": -0.089821 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0709, "goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0573, "shots_on_target": 0.2545, "total_shots": 0.5993, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.268, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3448 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0966, "after": 0.0801 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0295 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, 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0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, 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"others": -0.0564, "total": 6.6432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059007 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022151 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013533 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.009921 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009617 } ], "others_margin": -0.056459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9941, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.2169, "total_shots": 0.6541, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3761, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 11.7914, "accurate_pass": 9.5397, "duels_won": 1.6486, "total_long_balls": 0.9243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0959, "crosses_total": 0.7989, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9564, "possession_lost": 5.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 2.8291, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 0.8912, "won_contest": 0.2394, "ball_recovery": 1.1398, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.7149, "fouls_drawn": 0.3643, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1063, "tackles_won": 0.147, "tackles": 0.7729, "clearances": 0.2394, "blocks": 0.173, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7628, "xgot": 0.0817, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2611, "total_progression": 25.9129, "progressive_carries": 1.0829, "shots_off_target": 0.4372 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9941, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2167, "total_shots": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3761, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 11.7914, "accurate_pass": 9.5397, "duels_won": 1.6486, "total_long_balls": 0.9243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0959, "crosses_total": 0.7859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9564, "possession_lost": 5.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 2.8291, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 0.8912, "won_contest": 0.2394, "ball_recovery": 1.1398, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.7081, "fouls_drawn": 0.3607, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.117, "tackles_won": 0.1438, "tackles": 0.7729, "clearances": 0.2394, "blocks": 0.173, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7628, "xgot": 0.0817, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2611, "total_progression": 25.9129, "progressive_carries": 1.0829, "shots_off_target": 0.4372 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.26, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7989, "after": 0.7859 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.1063, "after": 0.117 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7149, "after": 0.7081 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6541, "after": 0.6489 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.81, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1457, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0706, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0343 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2777, "fifa_rank": 1404.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "scorer_weight": 0.0597, "squad_weight_total": 1.3652, "weight_share": 0.0438, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { 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"contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.3784, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437422 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060472 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.049513 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.03983 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031956 } ], "others_margin": -0.056228 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.643223762512207, "model_output": 6.6432, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0564, "total": 6.6432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059007 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022151 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013533 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.009921 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009617 } ], "others_margin": -0.056459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9941, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.2169, "total_shots": 0.6541, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3761, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 11.7914, "accurate_pass": 9.5397, "duels_won": 1.6486, "total_long_balls": 0.9243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0959, "crosses_total": 0.7989, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9564, "possession_lost": 5.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 2.8291, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 0.8912, "won_contest": 0.2394, "ball_recovery": 1.1398, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.7149, "fouls_drawn": 0.3643, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1063, "tackles_won": 0.147, "tackles": 0.7729, "clearances": 0.2394, "blocks": 0.173, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7628, "xgot": 0.0817, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2611, "total_progression": 25.9129, "progressive_carries": 1.0829, "shots_off_target": 0.4372 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9941, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2167, "total_shots": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3761, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 11.7914, "accurate_pass": 9.5397, "duels_won": 1.6486, "total_long_balls": 0.9243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0959, "crosses_total": 0.7859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9564, "possession_lost": 5.0349, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 2.8291, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 0.8912, "won_contest": 0.2394, "ball_recovery": 1.1398, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.7081, "fouls_drawn": 0.3607, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.117, "tackles_won": 0.1438, "tackles": 0.7729, "clearances": 0.2394, "blocks": 0.173, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7628, "xgot": 0.0817, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2611, "total_progression": 25.9129, "progressive_carries": 1.0829, "shots_off_target": 0.4372 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.26, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7989, "after": 0.7859 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.1063, "after": 0.117 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7149, "after": 0.7081 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6541, "after": 0.6489 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.81, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1457, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0936, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0706, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0343 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2777, "fifa_rank": 1404.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "scorer_weight": 0.0597, "squad_weight_total": 1.3652, "weight_share": 0.0438, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7492, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.4309, "rating": 6.6432, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 13.5097, "accurate_pass": 10.9299, "duels_won": 1.8888, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.13, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7188, "possession_lost": 5.7686, "dispossessed": 0.7149, "duels_lost": 3.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.2499, "total_contest": 1.0211, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.3059, "challenges_lost": 0.4975, "fouls": 0.8113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.1648, "tackles": 0.8855, "clearances": 0.2743, "blocks": 0.1982, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.874, "xgot": 0.0811, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0278, "total_progression": 29.6891, "progressive_carries": 1.2407, "shots_off_target": 0.5009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 0.976, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.8913, xG scale 1.4642, xA scale 1.4642, team xA 0.98 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.305, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8913, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6669, "team_expected_assists": 0.9765, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7482, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4642, "xa_scale": 1.4642, "opponent_lambda": 1.39, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0966, "after": 0.0801 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0295 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0747, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.078, "scorer_weight": 0.0699, "squad_weight_total": 1.3652, "weight_share": 0.0512, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.6511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6511, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1833 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3467, "total_shots": 0.8164, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.365, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4697, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0747, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.8731, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0236, "squad_weight_total": 0.9792, "weight_share": 0.0241, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alejandro Catena", "weight": 0.2174, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2174, "runner_up": "Rubén García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1419, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 392, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.0079, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0437, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs 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0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": -0.1136, "total": 0.5638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.249831 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071815 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.064779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060721 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.046648 } ], "others_margin": -0.183487 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717477321624756, "model_output": 6.7175, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": -0.1248, "total": 6.7175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051071 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.043793 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02606 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.023335 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0168, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4351, "goals": 0.5215, "goal_rate": 0.5215, "shots_on_target": 1.2298, "total_shots": 2.4976, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1684, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, "total_contest": 0.8029, "won_contest": 0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1215, "fouls_drawn": 0.5995, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2331, "tackles_won": 0.5348, "tackles": 0.9521, "clearances": 0.4294, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.7812, "offsides": 0.3412, "ball_carries": 5.036, "total_progression": 9.4848, "progressive_carries": 0.3665, "shots_off_target": 1.2677 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0168, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4351, "goals": 0.5545, "goal_rate": 0.5545, "shots_on_target": 1.2475, "total_shots": 2.5174, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, "total_contest": 0.8029, "won_contest": 0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1199, "fouls_drawn": 0.5865, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.228, "tackles_won": 0.5232, "tackles": 0.9521, "clearances": 0.4294, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.7812, "offsides": 0.3634, "ball_carries": 5.036, "total_progression": 9.4848, "progressive_carries": 0.3665, "shots_off_target": 1.2677 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8863, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.5215, "after": 0.5545 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.3412, "after": 0.3634 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4976, 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0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1199, "fouls_drawn": 0.5865, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.228, "tackles_won": 0.5232, "tackles": 0.9521, "clearances": 0.4294, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.7812, "offsides": 0.3634, "ball_carries": 5.036, "total_progression": 9.4848, "progressive_carries": 0.3665, "shots_off_target": 1.2677 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4541, "goals": 0.5787, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "shots_on_target": 1.302, "total_shots": 2.6274, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, "total_contest": 0.8029, "won_contest": 0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1199, "fouls_drawn": 0.5865, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.228, "tackles_won": 0.5232, "tackles": 0.9521, "clearances": 0.4294, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.8153, "offsides": 0.3634, "ball_carries": 5.036, "total_progression": 9.4848, "progressive_carries": 0.3665, "shots_off_target": 1.3231, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0437, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo 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"stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.2475, "after": 1.302 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.7812, "after": 0.8153 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.5545, "after": 0.5787 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4351, "after": 0.4541 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4541, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.302, "total_shots": 2.6274, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.302, "total_shots": 2.6274, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, 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0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2472, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4541, "after": 0.5614 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0369, "after": 0.0456 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.302, "total_shots": 2.6274, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, "total_contest": 0.8029, "won_contest": 0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1199, "fouls_drawn": 0.5865, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.228, "tackles_won": 0.5232, "tackles": 0.9521, "clearances": 0.4294, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 1.0079, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.5787, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.302, "total_shots": 2.6274, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.5733, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 10.0126, "accurate_pass": 7.336, "duels_won": 2.3292, "total_long_balls": 0.3412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3412, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8119, "crosses_total": 0.1647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.6483, "possession_lost": 7.648, "dispossessed": 0.8422, "duels_lost": 4.458, "aerial_lost": 0.8187, "total_contest": 0.8029, "won_contest": 0.6345, "ball_recovery": 0.2741, "challenges_lost": 0.7054, "fouls": 2.1199, "fouls_drawn": 0.5865, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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0.0278, "total": 7.0225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053024 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050707 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.049797 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039401 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034776 } ], "others_margin": 0.027835 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 1.0342, "expected_assists": 0.184, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.945, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2263, "fouls_drawn": 2.6454, "assists": 0.4942, "assist_rate": 0.4942, "interceptions": 0.5206, "tackles_won": 1.4141, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0394, "offsides": 0.2182, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.648 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0467)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3682, "total_shots": 1.0018, "expected_assists": 0.184, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assists": 0.4869, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0394, "offsides": 0.2238, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.648 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0467, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9461, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.945, "after": 4.8404 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4141, "after": 1.3796 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0342, "after": 1.0018 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.6454, "after": 2.6166 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3862, "after": 0.3682 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2263, "after": 1.2164 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5206, "after": 0.5121 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.4942, "after": 0.4869 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3682, "total_shots": 1.0162, "expected_assists": 0.184, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assists": 0.4869, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0394, "offsides": 0.2238, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.648 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goals": 0.105, "goal_rate": 0.105, "shots_on_target": 0.3346, "total_shots": 0.9234, "expected_assists": 0.184, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assists": 0.4869, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0358, "offsides": 0.2238, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.5888, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "skill_edge": -0.0241, "height_edge": -0.038, "attacker_skill": 0.4818, "defender_skill": 0.5353, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4449 } ], "xg_override": 0.0731 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0162, "after": 0.9234 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.648, "after": 0.5888 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3682, "after": 0.3346 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1155, "after": 0.105 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0804, "after": 0.0731 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3346, "total_shots": 0.9234, "expected_assists": 0.184, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0358, "offsides": 0.2238, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.5888, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3346, "total_shots": 0.9234, "expected_assists": 0.2273, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0443, "offsides": 0.2238, "ball_carries": 26.0543, "total_progression": 91.2543, "progressive_carries": 2.6674, "shots_off_target": 0.5888, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0731, "after": 0.0904 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.184, "after": 0.2273 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3346, "total_shots": 0.9234, "expected_assists": 0.2273, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assist_rate": 0.4869, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5121, "tackles_won": 1.3796, "tackles": 1.5801, "clearances": 0.8305, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5919, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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1561.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3346, "total_shots": 0.9234, "expected_assists": 0.2273, "key_pass": 2.4805, "rating": 7.0225, "minutes": 85.15, "total_pass": 73.1538, "accurate_pass": 55.5448, "duels_won": 6.0262, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 56.3181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.8732, "crosses_total": 4.8404, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 94.5084, "possession_lost": 27.5759, "dispossessed": 1.7429, "duels_lost": 6.5087, "aerial_lost": 0.0977, "total_contest": 3.5628, "won_contest": 1.6415, "ball_recovery": 5.1224, "challenges_lost": 1.6182, "fouls": 1.2164, "fouls_drawn": 2.6166, "assist_rate": 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2863 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0274 } ], "others": -0.0897, "total": 0.6863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.286298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132258 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053615 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039272 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.027362 } ], "others_margin": -0.089636 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.983648777008057, "model_output": 6.9836, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"others_margin": -0.071345 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5563251376152039, "model_output": 0.5563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.5563, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034263 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.023867 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021813 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.011662 } ], "others_margin": -0.004207 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.721466064453125, "model_output": 6.7215, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": 6.7215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019492 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.017091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013978 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013559 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011328 } ], "others_margin": -0.038402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.505)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2391, "tackles": 2.332, "tackles_won": 1.3624, "clearances": 4.2768, "aerial_won": 1.8392, "total_shots": 0.5563, "rating": 6.7215, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5955, "accurate_pass": 33.6079, "duels_won": 7.6715, "total_long_balls": 3.024, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7804, "total_own_half_passes": 22.5689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1405, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4673, "crosses_total": 1.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.098, "touches": 68.8858, "possession_lost": 13.5376, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 4.7696, "aerial_lost": 1.2473, "total_contest": 1.7041, "won_contest": 0.3407, "ball_recovery": 6.0829, "challenges_lost": 0.9143, "fouls": 0.9738, "fouls_drawn": 1.4307, "blocks": 0.319, "goals": 0.0, 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-0.00289 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.556)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12900000, "quality_factor": 0.5559, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0295, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8078 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0382, "after": 0.0472 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0295, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8078, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4828, "fifa_rank": 4880.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0295, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0461, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8078, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0378, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0984, "tackles": 0.9938, "tackles_won": 0.6749, "clearances": 4.2402, "aerial_won": 2.1422, "total_shots": 0.5162, "rating": 6.7399, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.7913, "accurate_pass": 54.7589, "duels_won": 2.5335, "total_long_balls": 1.9582, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0085, "total_own_half_passes": 38.7503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4745, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.7087, "possession_lost": 5.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.409, "aerial_lost": 0.5665, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 1.7837, "fouls_drawn": 0.7252, "blocks": 1.1173, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.392, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0295, "ball_carries": 25.14, "total_progression": 107.9895, "progressive_carries": 1.9601, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0461, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8078, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0119, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0131, "creation_factor": 0.8078, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pablo Ramón": { "player_id": 962381, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 186, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7764, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 6.6831, "dispossessed": 0.7142, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0082, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 81, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0082, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8532, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0725 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0721 } ], "others": -0.0893, "total": 1.4497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114854 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.060635 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.056573 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046041 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.045776 } ], "others_margin": -0.059811 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5429528951644897, "model_output": 0.543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.543, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061923 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.029035 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024913 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.013459 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007702 } ], "others_margin": -0.00335 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776368618011475, "model_output": 6.7764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1453, "tackles": 1.7645, "tackles_won": 1.0723, "clearances": 4.4076, "aerial_won": 1.4364, "total_shots": 0.538, "rating": 6.7764, "minutes": 83.11, "total_pass": 51.8423, "accurate_pass": 46.3793, "duels_won": 5.6954, "total_long_balls": 3.5875, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3725, "total_own_half_passes": 32.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.617, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7623, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5243, "possession_lost": 6.6831, "dispossessed": 0.7142, "duels_lost": 3.2665, "aerial_lost": 1.2826, "total_contest": 0.5596, "won_contest": 0.4201, "ball_recovery": 5.1852, "challenges_lost": 0.4966, "fouls": 0.6337, "fouls_drawn": 1.0756, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, 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"totalClearance", "margin": -0.007361 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.00608 } ], "others_margin": -0.028127 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0174, "tackles": 2.0167, "tackles_won": 1.2823, "clearances": 2.5198, "aerial_won": 1.1654, "total_shots": 0.3003, "rating": 6.7052, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 36.7982, "accurate_pass": 27.3723, "duels_won": 3.886, "total_long_balls": 2.4153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8497, "crosses_total": 1.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.295, "possession_lost": 13.3767, "dispossessed": 0.3534, "duels_lost": 3.4685, "aerial_lost": 0.8464, "total_contest": 0.5995, "won_contest": 0.186, "ball_recovery": 3.2248, "challenges_lost": 0.8365, "fouls": 1.1014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3004, "blocks": 0.4069, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6081, "total_progression": 43.353, "progressive_carries": 0.8774, "key_pass": 0.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.3003 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0174, "tackles": 2.0167, "tackles_won": 1.2823, "clearances": 2.5198, "aerial_won": 1.1654, "total_shots": 0.3003, "rating": 6.7052, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 36.7982, "accurate_pass": 27.3723, "duels_won": 3.886, "total_long_balls": 2.4153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8497, "crosses_total": 1.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.295, "possession_lost": 13.3767, "dispossessed": 0.3534, "duels_lost": 3.4685, "aerial_lost": 0.8464, "total_contest": 0.5995, "won_contest": 0.186, "ball_recovery": 3.2248, "challenges_lost": 0.8365, "fouls": 1.1014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3004, "blocks": 0.4069, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6081, "total_progression": 43.353, "progressive_carries": 0.8774, "key_pass": 0.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.3003 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0174, "tackles": 2.0167, "tackles_won": 1.2823, "clearances": 2.5198, "aerial_won": 1.1654, "total_shots": 0.3003, "rating": 6.7052, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 36.7982, "accurate_pass": 27.3723, "duels_won": 3.886, "total_long_balls": 2.4153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8497, "crosses_total": 1.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.295, "possession_lost": 13.3767, "dispossessed": 0.3534, "duels_lost": 3.4685, "aerial_lost": 0.8464, "total_contest": 0.5995, "won_contest": 0.186, "ball_recovery": 3.2248, "challenges_lost": 0.8365, "fouls": 1.1014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3004, "blocks": 0.4069, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6081, "total_progression": 43.353, "progressive_carries": 0.8774, "key_pass": 0.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.3003, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0174, "tackles": 2.0167, "tackles_won": 1.2823, "clearances": 2.5198, "aerial_won": 1.1654, "total_shots": 0.3003, "rating": 6.7052, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 36.7982, "accurate_pass": 27.3723, "duels_won": 3.886, "total_long_balls": 2.4153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8497, "crosses_total": 1.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.295, "possession_lost": 13.3767, "dispossessed": 0.3534, "duels_lost": 3.4685, "aerial_lost": 0.8464, "total_contest": 0.5995, "won_contest": 0.186, "ball_recovery": 3.2248, "challenges_lost": 0.8365, "fouls": 1.1014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3004, "blocks": 0.4069, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6081, "total_progression": 43.353, "progressive_carries": 0.8774, "key_pass": 0.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.3003, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0174, "tackles": 2.0167, "tackles_won": 1.2823, "clearances": 2.5198, "aerial_won": 1.1654, "total_shots": 0.3003, "rating": 6.7052, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 36.7982, "accurate_pass": 27.3723, "duels_won": 3.886, "total_long_balls": 2.4153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8497, "crosses_total": 1.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.295, "possession_lost": 13.3767, "dispossessed": 0.3534, "duels_lost": 3.4685, "aerial_lost": 0.8464, "total_contest": 0.5995, "won_contest": 0.186, "ball_recovery": 3.2248, "challenges_lost": 0.8365, "fouls": 1.1014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3004, "blocks": 0.4069, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6081, "total_progression": 43.353, "progressive_carries": 0.8774, "key_pass": 0.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.3003, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0231, "after": 0.0286 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0176, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0282, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0229, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0253, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "player_id": 1014412, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, 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"rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-19", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 2.8777, "save_contribution": 2.6087, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9477, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.1252, "passValueNormalized": 0.0377, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 16.0184 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.6169683933258057, "model_output": 2.617, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1472 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0888 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0347 } ], "others": -0.1322, "total": 2.617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.051355 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.032296 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.014807 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.013942 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012538 } ], "others_margin": -0.049307 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.29413071274757385, "model_output": -0.2941, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0236 } ], "others": -0.1585, "total": -0.2941, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03955 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037757 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032266 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.025833 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.023568 } ], "others_margin": -0.15871 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8512983322143555, "model_output": 6.8513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6138, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1259, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0210)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.021, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.6138, "after": 2.6289 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1259, "after": 0.1372 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.14, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3425 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.14, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.8, "after": 12.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.14, "after": 3.04 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.07, "after": 1.04 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 932, "fifa_rank": 433.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6289, "goals_prevented": -0.2938, "rating": 6.8513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.6017, "accurate_pass": 16.6817, "total_long_balls": 7.7912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8742, "touches": 34.7721, "clearances": 1.3858, "ball_recovery": 9.0246, "high_claims": 1.2518, "punches": 1.244, "aerial_won": 0.3765, "sweeper_actions": 1.6092, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5048, "saves_inside_box": 2.0384, "possession_lost": 4.926, "duels_won": 0.5572, "duels_lost": 0.1407, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.107, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3425, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Simon Eriksson": { "player_id": 1472960, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5395, "combined_rank_score": 3586.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 6957.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Simon Eriksson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kerem Demirbay", "ranking": 5390 }, { "player_name": "Mbaye Diagne", "ranking": 5391 }, { "player_name": "Cengiz Ünder", "ranking": 5392 }, { "player_name": "Christopher Opéri", "ranking": 5393 }, { "player_name": "Levent Mercan", "ranking": 5394 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jiří Letáček", "ranking": 5396 }, { "player_name": "Emin Bayram", "ranking": 5397 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Musaba", "ranking": 5398 }, { "player_name": "Archie Brown", "ranking": 5399 }, { "player_name": "Gift Orban", "ranking": 5400 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,100,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4136, "tackles": 0.5333, "tackles_won": 0.2973, "clearances": 1.6776, "aerial_won": 0.5287, "total_shots": 0.1347, "rating": 6.6212, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 19.8272, "accurate_pass": 15.7066, "duels_won": 2.4919, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.5452, "possession_lost": 4.2846, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7406, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9406, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.4975, "fouls_drawn": 0.6127, "blocks": 0.9197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4459, "total_progression": 18.3642, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1347 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9901, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles": 0.5021, "tackles_won": 0.2799, "clearances": 1.5795, "aerial_won": 0.4978, "total_shots": 0.1268, "rating": 6.6212, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1268, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.58, "projection_minutes": 14.42, "minutes_scale": 0.9415, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles": 0.5021, "tackles_won": 0.2799, "clearances": 1.5795, "aerial_won": 0.4978, "total_shots": 0.1268, "rating": 6.6212, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1268, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles": 0.5021, "tackles_won": 0.2799, "clearances": 1.5795, "aerial_won": 0.4978, "total_shots": 0.1268, "rating": 6.6212, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1268, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles": 0.5021, "tackles_won": 0.2799, "clearances": 1.5795, "aerial_won": 0.4978, "total_shots": 0.1268, "rating": 6.6212, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1268, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5579, "fifa_rank": 6974.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Pedro Felipe": { "player_id": 1485292, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5357, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.8779, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1780, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5357, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedro Felipe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tsenov", "ranking": 1775 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Myakish", "ranking": 1776 }, { "player_name": "Jun'ai 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9873, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3214, "tackles": 0.6452, "tackles_won": 0.4014, "clearances": 0.7463, "aerial_won": 0.4363, "total_shots": 0.1215, "rating": 6.5357, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 5.8377, "accurate_pass": 4.7794, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4489, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.1079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3304, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6754, "possession_lost": 1.7279, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9436, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7191, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 1.1662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.447, "total_progression": 4.6827, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1215 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.8358, "aerialWon": 0.0, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9517, "totalTackle": 0.7775, "defensive_actions": 0.7775 }, "per_target": 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"name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.033178 } ], "others_margin": -0.109807 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6451594829559326, "model_output": 0.6452, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7505 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.6452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.775077 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.042062 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.812822 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.059594 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.05107 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.034585 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.032246 } ], "others_margin": 0.046725 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7463424801826477, "model_output": 0.7463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.3206 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2039 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1502 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0401 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.7463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.127096 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.202518 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.18071 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.060874 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.054698 } ], "others_margin": -0.009427 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4362521767616272, "model_output": 0.4363, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8138 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1599 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.4363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893778 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.333761 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088993 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.078375 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.07412 } ], "others_margin": -0.006869 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.12150128930807114, "model_output": 0.1215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1826 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 0.1215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077295 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023498 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010109 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009565 } ], "others_margin": -0.049932 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.535727500915527, "model_output": 6.5357, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0934, "total": 6.5357, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.049415 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039236 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.034121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017239 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015691 } ], "others_margin": -0.093273 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3174, "tackles": 0.637, "tackles_won": 0.3963, "clearances": 0.7369, "aerial_won": 0.4307, "total_shots": 0.12, "rating": 6.5357, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 5.7636, "accurate_pass": 4.7187, "duels_won": 0.7676, "total_long_balls": 0.3262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3262, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3924, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3262, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.5398, "possession_lost": 1.706, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9189, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.71, "challenges_lost": 0.7676, "fouls": 1.1514, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"shots_off_target": 0.1321, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3494, "tackles": 0.7012, "tackles_won": 0.4362, "clearances": 0.8111, "aerial_won": 0.4741, "total_shots": 0.1321, "rating": 6.5357, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 6.3443, "accurate_pass": 5.1941, "duels_won": 0.8449, "total_long_balls": 0.3591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8349, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.204, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3591, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.6017, "possession_lost": 1.8779, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1122, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7815, "challenges_lost": 0.7676, 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6593, "total_progression": 5.089, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1321, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1780, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "player_id": 1174889, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 171, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 99, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 11, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 4, "fouls_drawn": 4, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.322, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2809, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3575, "combined_rank_score": 1536.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2915.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.989, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gustavo Puerta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "ranking": 3570 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Roldan", "ranking": 3571 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Pereyra", "ranking": 3572 }, { "player_name": "Moise Bombito", "ranking": 3573 }, { "player_name": "Germán Berterame", "ranking": 3574 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Ojeda", "ranking": 3576 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gómez", "ranking": 3577 }, { "player_name": "David Douděra", "ranking": 3578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Peretz", "ranking": 3579 }, { "player_name": "Callum McGregor", "ranking": 3580 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.467, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.707562348292583, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.322, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0221, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Racing Sant", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 22.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5059, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0513, "shots_on_target": 0.1156, "total_shots": 0.3647, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 58.6463, "accurate_pass": 53.9252, "duels_won": 6.4227, "total_long_balls": 1.3392, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3392, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5967, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.8251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.3285, "crosses_total": 0.3304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 80.8639, "possession_lost": 11.829, "dispossessed": 1.3887, "duels_lost": 8.6433, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9417, "interceptions": 0.5617, "tackles_won": 1.0583, "tackles": 2.4383, "clearances": 0.6696, "total_contest": 1.7687, "won_contest": 0.7191, "challenges_lost": 1.2721, "fouls": 3.38, "fouls_drawn": 3.2653, "blocks": 0.3887, "big_chances_created": 0.2809, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.2886, "total_progression": 44.6451, "progressive_carries": 0.5617, "shots_off_target": 0.2491 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5617, "creative_index": 0.5787, "expectedGoals": 0.0148, "expectedAssists": 0.1437, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5059065818786621, "model_output": 0.5059, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3996 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.021 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 0.5059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.109767 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.089587 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.064531 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.037884 } ], "others_margin": -0.071785 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03387013077735901, "model_output": 0.0339, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": 0.0013, "total": 0.0339, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.706653 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.169534 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.164631 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.137975 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.06154 } ], "others_margin": 0.036764 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.047127604484558105, "model_output": 0.0471, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 0.0471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.259735 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.126148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.125745 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.111506 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.091678 } ], "others_margin": -0.084367 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.025277739390730858, "model_output": 0.0253, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.0253, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.536235 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.368308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.12317 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111464 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06355 } ], "others_margin": -0.113778 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05126240849494934, "model_output": 0.0513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0091, "total": 0.0513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.310019 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185514 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.149142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.106394 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088254 } ], "others_margin": 0.193473 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1155727282166481, "model_output": 0.1156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1441 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.1156, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201735 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.146029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.114519 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.075783 } ], "others_margin": -0.065611 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3646281361579895, "model_output": 0.3646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1593 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0801 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0327 } ], "others": -0.1657, "total": 0.3646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.315299 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.159313 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.080087 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.037957 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032703 } ], "others_margin": -0.165722 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.989039421081543, "model_output": 6.989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 6.989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.128524 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077841 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020427 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015101 } ], "others_margin": -0.002583 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0221, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5171, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "assists": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0482, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.3727, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, "total_own_half_passes": 28.436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1624, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9546, "crosses_total": 0.3377, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.651, "possession_lost": 12.0904, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 8.8343, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.5741, "tackles_won": 1.0817, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 0.6844, "total_contest": 1.8078, "won_contest": 0.735, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.4547, "fouls_drawn": 3.3375, "blocks": 0.3973, "big_chances_created": 0.2871, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.7591, "total_progression": 45.6318, "progressive_carries": 0.5741, "shots_off_target": 0.2546 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0221, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5171, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "assists": 0.0443, "assist_rate": 0.0443, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0481, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.1085, "total_shots": 0.3539, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, "total_own_half_passes": 28.436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1624, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9546, "crosses_total": 0.316, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.651, "possession_lost": 12.0904, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 8.8343, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.5389, "tackles_won": 1.011, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 0.6844, "total_contest": 1.8078, "won_contest": 0.735, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.2312, "fouls_drawn": 3.1178, "blocks": 0.3973, "big_chances_created": 0.2871, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.7591, "total_progression": 45.6318, "progressive_carries": 0.5741, "shots_off_target": 0.2546 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0813, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 3.4547, "after": 3.2312 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 3.3375, "after": 3.1178 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0817, "after": 1.011 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5741, "after": 0.5389 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3377, "after": 0.316 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3727, "after": 0.3539 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1181, "after": 0.1085 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.618, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.434, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 71.6393, "accurate_pass": 65.8721, "duels_won": 7.8456, "total_long_balls": 1.6359, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6359, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9849, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.6047, "crosses_total": 0.3777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 98.7791, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 10.5582, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.6441, "tackles_won": 1.2083, "tackles": 2.9785, "clearances": 0.818, "total_contest": 2.1606, "won_contest": 0.8784, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.8617, "fouls_drawn": 3.7262, "blocks": 0.4748, "big_chances_created": 0.3431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.0051, "total_progression": 54.5362, "progressive_carries": 0.6861, "shots_off_target": 0.3043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.322, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.71, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1951, "appearance_probability": 0.322 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.618, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.434, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 71.6393, "accurate_pass": 65.8721, "duels_won": 7.8456, "total_long_balls": 1.6359, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6359, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9849, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.6047, "crosses_total": 0.3777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 98.7791, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 10.5582, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.6441, "tackles_won": 1.2083, "tackles": 2.9785, "clearances": 0.818, "total_contest": 2.1606, "won_contest": 0.8784, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.8617, "fouls_drawn": 3.7262, "blocks": 0.4748, "big_chances_created": 0.3431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.0051, "total_progression": 54.5362, "progressive_carries": 0.6861, "shots_off_target": 0.3043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.322, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.618, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.434, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 71.6393, "accurate_pass": 65.8721, "duels_won": 7.8456, "total_long_balls": 1.6359, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6359, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9849, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.6047, "crosses_total": 0.3777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 98.7791, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 10.5582, "aerial_won": 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{ "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1064, "goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.0921, "shots_on_target": 0.4703, "total_shots": 1.0541, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "key_pass": 0.7179, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 23.0, "total_pass": 22.5236, "accurate_pass": 17.464, "duels_won": 3.4405, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2147, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8408, "crosses_total": 2.9364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1926, "touches": 39.5157, "possession_lost": 11.7913, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 4.5856, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.5562, "won_contest": 1.2588, "ball_recovery": 3.7492, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6118, "fouls_drawn": 1.1108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6517, "tackles_won": 0.2265, "tackles": 1.0708, "clearances": 0.2665, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4532, "xgot": 0.5253, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 11.7677, "total_progression": 44.1024, "progressive_carries": 2.1572, "shots_off_target": 0.5838 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goals": 0.1023, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 23.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1106, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goals": 0.1023, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1182, "after": 0.0833 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0942, "after": 0.0664 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2264, "fifa_rank": 1564.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "scorer_weight": 0.0754, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.048, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0627, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0531, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0588, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "player_id": 965257, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3663, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304, 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013127 } ], "others_margin": -0.062947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9896, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0872, "goals": 0.084, "goal_rate": 0.084, "shots_on_target": 0.2243, "total_shots": 0.4962, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0.2228, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 16.9, "total_pass": 2.7781, "accurate_pass": 2.5874, "duels_won": 1.0758, "total_long_balls": 0.2243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2243, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4622, "possession_lost": 0.9164, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 1.384, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.5746, "won_contest": 0.5746, "ball_recovery": 0.7523, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1907, "fouls_drawn": 0.5012, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1907, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3105, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6107, "total_progression": 1.9856, "progressive_carries": 0.3105, "shots_off_target": 0.2718 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9896, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.31, "projection_minutes": 16.9, "minutes_scale": 1.4977, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1306, "after": 0.0904 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "scorer_weight": 0.088, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.056, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0077, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0085, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Andrés Martín": { "player_id": 922939, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, 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"creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1201, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"others_margin": 0.004533 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08482008427381516, "model_output": 0.0848, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0207, "total": 0.0848, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.386291 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.167573 }, { "name": 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438736 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129444 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.113636 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054017 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.051229 } ], "others_margin": 0.155197 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739655494689941, "model_output": 6.7397, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1188 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 6.7397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.118786 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059355 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033459 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.029527 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.02345 } ], "others_margin": 0.012567 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1064, "goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.0921, "shots_on_target": 0.4703, "total_shots": 1.0541, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "key_pass": 0.7179, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 23.0, "total_pass": 22.5236, "accurate_pass": 17.464, "duels_won": 3.4405, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2147, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8408, "crosses_total": 2.9364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1926, "touches": 39.5157, "possession_lost": 11.7913, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 4.5856, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.5562, "won_contest": 1.2588, "ball_recovery": 3.7492, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6118, "fouls_drawn": 1.1108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6517, "tackles_won": 0.2265, "tackles": 1.0708, "clearances": 0.2665, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4532, "xgot": 0.5253, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 11.7677, "total_progression": 44.1024, "progressive_carries": 2.1572, "shots_off_target": 0.5838 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goals": 0.1023, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 23.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1106, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goals": 0.1023, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1182, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.5834, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1182, "after": 0.0833 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0942, "after": 0.0664 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2264, "fifa_rank": 1564.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "scorer_weight": 0.0754, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.048, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5223, "total_shots": 1.1707, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7973, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 25.0152, "accurate_pass": 19.3959, "duels_won": 3.8211, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1507, "crosses_total": 3.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.2139, "touches": 43.887, "possession_lost": 13.0957, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 5.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "total_contest": 2.839, "won_contest": 1.3981, "ball_recovery": 4.1639, "challenges_lost": 1.664, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 1.2337, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7238, "tackles_won": 0.2516, "tackles": 1.1893, "clearances": 0.296, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5033, "xgot": 0.4111, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 13.0695, "total_progression": 48.9811, "progressive_carries": 2.3958, "shots_off_target": 0.6484, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0627, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0531, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0588, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "player_id": 965257, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3663, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 12, 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013127 } ], "others_margin": -0.062947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9896, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0872, "goals": 0.084, "goal_rate": 0.084, "shots_on_target": 0.2243, "total_shots": 0.4962, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0.2228, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 16.9, "total_pass": 2.7781, "accurate_pass": 2.5874, "duels_won": 1.0758, "total_long_balls": 0.2243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2243, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4622, "possession_lost": 0.9164, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 1.384, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.5746, "won_contest": 0.5746, "ball_recovery": 0.7523, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1907, "fouls_drawn": 0.5012, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1907, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3105, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6107, "total_progression": 1.9856, "progressive_carries": 0.3105, "shots_off_target": 0.2718 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9896, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.31, "projection_minutes": 16.9, "minutes_scale": 1.4977, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goals": 0.1258, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.1244, xG scale 1.2362, xA scale 1.2362, team xA 0.92 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.39, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1244, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7429, "team_expected_assists": 0.9183, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6607, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2362, "xa_scale": 1.2362, "opponent_lambda": 1.305, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1306, "after": 0.0904 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "scorer_weight": 0.088, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.056, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.7002, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7002, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2193 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.1258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.5953, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4071, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.9734, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0077, "squad_weight_total": 0.9036, "weight_share": 0.0085, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.2841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2841, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1846, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.39, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 444, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.1007, "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.187, "xg_contribution": 0.4115, "xg_multiplier": 0.9806, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 }, { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is evenly matched against Jeanuël Belocian and Alvaro Mantilla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.411 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0347, "xg_multiplier": 0.9706, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (CDM) is evenly matched against Íñigo Sáinz-Maza in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "xg_contribution": 0.0349, "xg_multiplier": 0.9412, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (CM) is evenly matched against Íñigo Sáinz-Maza in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.47, "xg_contribution": 0.0437, "xg_multiplier": 1.0296, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.53 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CM) is evenly matched against Íñigo Sáinz-Maza in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Torró", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.0879, "xg_multiplier": 1.0353, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Torró (CM) is evenly matched against Íñigo Sáinz-Maza in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "xg_contribution": 0.4541, "xg_multiplier": 1.0437, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is evenly matched against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.454 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0731, "xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1443, "xg_multiplier": 0.9038, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1077, "xg_multiplier": 0.8693, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.0366, "xg_multiplier": 1.0588, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza (CDM) is evenly matched against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.0487, "xg_multiplier": 1.025, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (CDM) is evenly matched against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.476, "away_midfield_power": 0.412, "home_creative_power": 0.383, "away_creative_power": 0.372, "home_defensive_power": 0.383, "away_defensive_power": 0.372, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.536, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Moi Gómez", "Iker Muñoz", "Lucas Torró", "Jon Moncayola" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "Iván Martín" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Moncayola vs Iván Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.009, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.305, "away_lambda": 1.39, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Torró": { "opponents": [ "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Pablo García", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Pablo García", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aitor Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Iñigo Arguibide": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Moi Gómez", "Jon Moncayola", "Lucas Torró" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez", "Lucas Torró" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García", "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Iván Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.133, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.047, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9855, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9992, "home_midfield_factor": 1.009, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4569, "away_avg_quality": 0.4883, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0314, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4204, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5162, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.662, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0957, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0527, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0306, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7134, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8725 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.009, "result": 0.8804 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9068 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0428 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0597, "result": 1.1051 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.993, "result": 1.0973 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9855, "result": 1.0814 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.133, "result": 1.2144 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2144, "result": 1.2144, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0957, "factor": 0.9694, "pre": 1.2144, "result": 1.1772 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1772 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1655, "result": 1.3425 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.3425 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3425, "result": 1.343, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.343, "result": 1.3046, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.305 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.305 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.305, "result": 1.305, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.305 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8645, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9859 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.991, "result": 0.977 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9672 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9672 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0789, "result": 1.0435 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0547 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9992, "result": 1.0538 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.047, "result": 1.1008 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1008, "result": 1.1008, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0957, "factor": 1.0527, "pre": 1.1008, "result": 1.1588 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1588 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1915, "result": 1.3505 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.3505 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3505, "result": 1.351, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.351, "result": 1.3896, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.39 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.39 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.39, "result": 1.39, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.39 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1655, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1915, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.305, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.39, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3425, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3505, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.305, "final_away_lambda": 1.39 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0597, "attack_index": 0.859, "defense_concede_index": 1.344, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.33, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.08, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0789, "attack_index": 1.021, "defense_concede_index": 1.183, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.58, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.83, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Osasuna vs Racing Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.343, Away 1.351). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.305, Away 1.390 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.305, "away_lambda": 1.39, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.343, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.351 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:33:31Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }