{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0759, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "3-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0759, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0233, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1142, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0759 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0678 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0638 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0584 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0521 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0079, "0-1": 0.0099, "0-2": 0.0065, "0-3": 0.0028, "0-4": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0274, "1-1": 0.0359, "1-2": 0.0233, "1-3": 0.0101, "1-4": 0.0033, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0491, "2-1": 0.0638, "2-2": 0.0415, "2-3": 0.018, "2-4": 0.0058, "2-5": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.0584, "3-1": 0.0759, "3-2": 0.0494, "3-3": 0.0214, "3-4": 0.007, "3-5": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0521, "4-1": 0.0678, "4-2": 0.044, "4-3": 0.0191, "4-4": 0.0062, "4-5": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0372, "5-1": 0.0484, "5-2": 0.0314, "5-3": 0.0136, "5-4": 0.0044, "5-5": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0221, "6-1": 0.0288, "6-2": 0.0187, "6-3": 0.0081, "6-4": 0.0026, "6-5": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0113, "7-1": 0.0147, "7-2": 0.0095, "7-3": 0.0041, "7-4": 0.0013, "8-0": 0.005, "8-1": 0.0065, "8-2": 0.0043, "8-3": 0.0018, "8-4": 0.0006, "9-0": 0.002, "9-1": 0.0026, "9-2": 0.0017, "9-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7903, "draw": 0.1142, "away_win": 0.0955 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8634, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1366, "btts_yes": 0.707, "btts_no": 0.293, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2725, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0283 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 7.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 7.03 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Madrid 9W-1D-0L vs Sevilla over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2), Jude Bellingham, Robbie Ure", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Lucien Agoumé). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.63, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.82, "home_lambda": 3.569, "away_lambda": 1.3, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 9, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.05, "away_multiplier": 0.95 }, "modal_scoreline": "3-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0759, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7903, "draw": 0.1142, "away_win": 0.0955 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7903, "fair_spread": 2.269, "fair_total": 4.869, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 3.569, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.3, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8634, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.707, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2725, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0283, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.4662, "probability": 0.7692, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robbie Ure (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2572, "probability": 0.2268, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arda Güler (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.5034, "probability": 0.3955, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gabriel Suazo (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2362, "probability": 0.2104, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.869, "expected_total_shots": 32, "expected_total_passes": 875, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 52.3, "possession_away_pct": 47.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7903, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.27 goals and fair total 4.87.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sevilla must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Andrés Castrin, Kike Salas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2), Jude Bellingham; bench watchlist: Rodrygo, Eduardo Camavinga.", "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Robbie Ure; bench watchlist: Lucas Stassin, Akor Adams, Oso.", "Assist usage should flow through Kylian Mbappé, Arda Güler, Gabriel Suazo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 2.43 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sevilla is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Sevilla wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 212000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.4662, "goal_rate": 0.712, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 5, "expected_assists": 0.3918, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.4074, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.032, "dispossessed": 1.3102, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.21, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.7997, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 115, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1648, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés Castrin, Kike Salas", "opponent_faced": "Andrés Castrin, Kike Salas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7692, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3242, "finishing_factor": 0.9124, "creation_factor": 1.223, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.974, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.7396, "expected_assists": 0.9228, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.1245, "expected_assists": 0.316, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.779, "expected_assists": 0.3907, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0136, "expected_assists": 0.2003, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6713, "expected_assists": 0.1673, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 10.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.4074, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0135, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 8.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 58.3, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6651, "goals": 0.5927, "goal_rate": 0.5927, "shots_on_target": 1.9206, "total_shots": 3.9743, "expected_assists": 0.1604, "key_pass": 1.6232, "rating": 7.4074, "minutes": 89.14, "total_pass": 31.0536, "accurate_pass": 26.7432, "duels_won": 4.9998, "total_long_balls": 1.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2087, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.4143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3785, "crosses_total": 1.3438, "crosses_accurate": 0.0266, "touches": 51.3822, "possession_lost": 12.8584, "dispossessed": 1.2927, "duels_lost": 4.8322, "aerial_lost": 0.0635, "total_contest": 5.7264, "won_contest": 3.1573, "ball_recovery": 1.3802, "challenges_lost": 0.308, "fouls": 0.8335, "fouls_drawn": 1.3517, "assists": 0.2103, "assist_rate": 0.2103, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2068, "tackles": 0.3346, "clearances": 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"contribution": 0.1048 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0674 } ], "others": 0.29, "total": 1.4978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.246744 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.110927 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.103332 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065897 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.057402 } ], "others_margin": 0.215161 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.943168640136719, "model_output": 6.9432, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0189 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 6.9432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068223 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061903 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03156 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031192 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018947 } ], "others_margin": 0.002237 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0454, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1748, "goal_rate": 0.1748, "shots_on_target": 0.5418, "total_shots": 1.4226, "expected_assists": 0.1311, "key_pass": 1.5658, "rating": 6.9432, "minutes": 81.84, "total_pass": 29.0294, "accurate_pass": 23.7079, "duels_won": 9.2258, "total_long_balls": 0.2937, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2937, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.867, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2365, "crosses_total": 3.5425, "crosses_accurate": 1.278, "touches": 53.6963, "possession_lost": 13.7903, "dispossessed": 1.8582, "duels_lost": 7.1369, "aerial_lost": 0.6391, "total_contest": 6.3151, "won_contest": 4.1115, "ball_recovery": 3.5425, "challenges_lost": 1.4517, "fouls": 0.9845, "fouls_drawn": 2.3234, "assists": 0.3454, "assist_rate": 0.3454, "interceptions": 0.9326, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1273 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0403, "total": 7.1096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.127263 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.055779 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024451 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020753 } ], "others_margin": 0.0404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assists": 0.1183, "assist_rate": 0.1183, "expected_goals": 0.1843, "goals": 0.1646, "goal_rate": 0.1646, "shots_on_target": 0.7271, "total_shots": 1.9174, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8828, "crosses_total": 0.5301, "crosses_accurate": 0.039, "touches": 60.0452, "possession_lost": 10.0714, "dispossessed": 1.414, "duels_lost": 5.5554, "aerial_won": 0.6719, "aerial_lost": 1.2505, "interceptions": 0.4962, "tackles_won": 1.182, "tackles": 1.7958, "clearances": 0.539, "total_contest": 3.4514, "won_contest": 2.3226, "challenges_lost": 0.6789, "fouls": 1.1313, "fouls_drawn": 2.9921, "blocks": 0.2637, "big_chances_created": 0.3459, "big_chances_missed": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.2689, "ball_carries": 20.2092, "total_progression": 60.1452, "progressive_carries": 2.1315, "shots_off_target": 1.1903 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 151000000, "quality_factor": 0.8995, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0143)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "expected_goals": 0.1843, "goals": 0.1721, "goal_rate": 0.1721, "shots_on_target": 0.7366, "total_shots": 1.9298, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8828, "crosses_total": 0.5275, "crosses_accurate": 0.039, "touches": 60.0452, "possession_lost": 10.0714, "dispossessed": 1.414, "duels_lost": 5.5554, "aerial_won": 0.6719, "aerial_lost": 1.2505, "interceptions": 0.4891, "tackles_won": 1.1849, "tackles": 1.7958, "clearances": 0.539, "total_contest": 3.4514, "won_contest": 2.3226, "challenges_lost": 0.6789, "fouls": 1.125, "fouls_drawn": 2.984, "blocks": 0.2637, "big_chances_created": 0.3459, "big_chances_missed": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.2689, "ball_carries": 20.2092, "total_progression": 60.1452, "progressive_carries": 2.1315, "shots_off_target": 1.1903 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0143, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9348, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9174, "after": 1.9298 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7271, "after": 0.7366 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1183, "after": 0.1265 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.9921, "after": 2.984 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1646, "after": 0.1721 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4962, "after": 0.4891 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1313, "after": 1.125 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "expected_goals": 0.1843, "goals": 0.1721, "goal_rate": 0.1721, "shots_on_target": 0.7366, "total_shots": 1.9298, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, 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2.4711 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6719, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1903, "after": 1.5242 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7366, "after": 0.9432 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2689, "after": 0.3443 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1843, "after": 0.236 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1721, "after": 0.2204 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1552, "after": 0.1987 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.236, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9432, "total_shots": 2.4711, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8828, "crosses_total": 0.5275, "crosses_accurate": 0.039, "touches": 60.0452, "possession_lost": 10.0714, "dispossessed": 1.414, "duels_lost": 5.5554, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2505, "interceptions": 0.4891, "tackles_won": 1.1849, "tackles": 1.7958, "clearances": 0.539, "total_contest": 3.4514, "won_contest": 2.3226, "challenges_lost": 0.6789, "fouls": 1.125, "fouls_drawn": 2.984, "blocks": 0.2637, "big_chances_created": 0.3459, "big_chances_missed": 0.1987, "xgot": 0.3443, "ball_carries": 20.2092, "total_progression": 60.1452, "progressive_carries": 2.1315, "shots_off_target": 1.5242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2805, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.671, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — 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"opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9455, "creation_factor": 0.9938 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.236, "after": 0.4407 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1276, "after": 0.3074 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.3074, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4407, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9432, "total_shots": 2.4711, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8828, "crosses_total": 0.5275, "crosses_accurate": 0.039, "touches": 60.0452, "possession_lost": 10.0714, "dispossessed": 1.414, "duels_lost": 5.5554, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2505, "interceptions": 0.4891, "tackles_won": 1.1849, "tackles": 1.7958, "clearances": 0.539, "total_contest": 3.4514, "won_contest": 2.3226, "challenges_lost": 0.6789, "fouls": 1.125, "fouls_drawn": 2.984, "blocks": 0.2637, "big_chances_created": 0.3459, "big_chances_missed": 0.1987, "xgot": 0.6429, "ball_carries": 20.2092, "total_progression": 60.1452, "progressive_carries": 2.1315, "shots_off_target": 1.5242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2805, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.671, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9455, "creation_factor": 0.9938, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5, "fifa_rank": 14.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4984, "expected_assists": 0.3074, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4407, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.9432, "total_shots": 2.4711, "rating": 7.1096, "minutes": 84.13, "total_pass": 39.9588, "accurate_pass": 34.8732, "duels_won": 7.7522, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4875, "total_own_half_passes": 13.428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9903, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8828, "crosses_total": 0.5275, "crosses_accurate": 0.039, "touches": 60.0452, "possession_lost": 10.0714, "dispossessed": 1.414, "duels_lost": 5.5554, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2505, "interceptions": 0.4891, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.246301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161233 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.068698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062432 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.062068 } ], "others_margin": 0.102879 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.121625900268555, "model_output": 7.1216, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1171 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.2676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0708 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.037 } ], "others": -0.2365, "total": 1.0058, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.267603 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128866 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.070767 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041889 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036971 } ], "others_margin": -0.236581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.034013271331787, "model_output": 7.034, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0855 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0441, "total": 7.034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.103748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02882 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022457 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015524 } ], "others_margin": -0.044032 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.4042, "total_contest": 0.3092, "won_contest": 0.0812, "challenges_lost": 0.2937, "fouls": 0.7248, "fouls_drawn": 0.8372, "blocks": 0.3137, "big_chances_created": 0.0197, "big_chances_missed": 0.0485, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 14.0788, "total_progression": 42.6243, "progressive_carries": 0.4615, "shots_off_target": 0.8209 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 73000000, "quality_factor": 0.8747, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6011, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.0621, "shots_on_target": 0.1982, "total_shots": 1.0191, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 80.46, "total_pass": 51.484, "accurate_pass": 47.6236, "duels_won": 3.8987, "total_long_balls": 3.6831, 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.1308, "total": 0.9204, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.154258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.032865 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029645 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.018241 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.017896 } ], "others_margin": -0.130745 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.093886852264404, "model_output": 7.0939, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0961 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 7.0939, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114361 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096087 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026512 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018283 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01282 } ], "others_margin": -0.001593 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9667, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "assists": 0.089, "assist_rate": 0.089, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.285, "total_shots": 0.9319, "rating": 7.0939, "minutes": 83.43, "total_pass": 50.8338, "accurate_pass": 45.5425, "duels_won": 3.0498, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1553, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3241, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3714, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.2183, "crosses_total": 0.2516, "crosses_accurate": 0.0566, "touches": 60.1386, "possession_lost": 6.8981, "dispossessed": 0.3554, "duels_lost": 1.6414, "aerial_won": 0.9303, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "interceptions": 0.8547, "tackles_won": 0.7228, "tackles": 0.907, "clearances": 1.3892, "total_contest": 0.7945, "won_contest": 0.5504, "challenges_lost": 0.4162, "fouls": 0.5647, "fouls_drawn": 0.6621, "blocks": 0.2463, "big_chances_created": 0.3557, "big_chances_missed": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0705, "ball_carries": 16.2173, "total_progression": 55.41, "progressive_carries": 1.6724, "shots_off_target": 0.6469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0132)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9667, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "assists": 0.0922, "assist_rate": 0.0922, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "shots_on_target": 0.2855, "total_shots": 0.9324, "rating": 7.0939, "minutes": 83.43, "total_pass": 50.8338, "accurate_pass": 45.5425, "duels_won": 3.0498, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1196 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119593 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05129 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023099 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.010583 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007816 } ], "others_margin": -0.034487 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.777616024017334, "model_output": 6.7776, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 6.7776, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050863 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019699 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016723 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012958 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.005056 } ], "others_margin": -0.003513 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8102, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2875, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3339, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.5097, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7316, "fouls_drawn": 0.7827, "blocks": 0.4353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 62000000, "quality_factor": 0.8569, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3311, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9801, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5097, "after": 1.4972 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7827, "after": 0.7762 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7316, "after": 0.7255 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3331, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3331, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327, "opponent_faced": "Chidera Ejuke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Chidera Ejuke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3331, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327, "opponent_faced": "Chidera Ejuke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3331, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.0523, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 39.176, "progressive_carries": 0.1649, "key_pass": 0.637, "shots_off_target": 0.2327, "opponent_faced": "Chidera Ejuke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0273, "after": 0.051 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.0891 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8125, "tackles": 1.9495, "tackles_won": 1.2904, "clearances": 2.1955, "aerial_won": 0.6829, "total_shots": 0.3331, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.7901, "accurate_pass": 38.5348, "duels_won": 3.5373, "total_long_balls": 1.9792, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3377, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1972, "crosses_total": 1.4972, "crosses_accurate": 0.2547, "touches": 63.1345, "possession_lost": 8.6111, "dispossessed": 0.2723, "duels_lost": 2.748, "aerial_lost": 0.5249, "total_contest": 0.2707, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6898, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.7255, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "blocks": 0.4353, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0891, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1751, "tackles": 1.3256, "tackles_won": 0.7807, "clearances": 5.02, "aerial_won": 1.6792, "total_shots": 0.593, "rating": 7.0299, "minutes": 82.2, "total_pass": 63.4725, "accurate_pass": 59.9617, "duels_won": 3.4599, "total_long_balls": 5.6889, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8839, "total_own_half_passes": 37.265, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.4892, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.2074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.4725, "crosses_total": 0.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.1104, "touches": 75.5528, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.0291, "duels_lost": 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0895, "after": 0.1671 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0363, "after": 0.0875 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2658 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0701 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0501, "total": 0.8092, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265778 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125474 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070094 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051107 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023074 } ], "others_margin": -0.050116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7177414894104, "model_output": 6.7177, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0559, "total": 6.7177, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02136 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009932 } ], "others_margin": -0.055779 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0226, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6187, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.0893, "goals": 0.0765, "goal_rate": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.3026, "total_shots": 0.8275, "rating": 6.7177, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 29.2765, "accurate_pass": 25.7227, "duels_won": 3.6089, "total_long_balls": 1.113, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6794, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2226, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5, "crosses_total": 0.7723, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.57, "possession_lost": 8.4149, "dispossessed": 0.9552, "duels_lost": 2.4114, "aerial_won": 1.0616, "aerial_lost": 0.7094, "interceptions": 0.5731, "tackles_won": 1.3871, "tackles": 2.169, "clearances": 1.3633, 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"duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 220, "combined_rank_score": 166.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 224.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7664, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konrad Laimer", "ranking": 215 }, { "player_name": "Jeremías Ledesma", "ranking": 216 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Neves", "ranking": 217 }, { "player_name": "Fagner", "ranking": 218 }, { "player_name": "Javohir Ilyosov", "ranking": 219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedro Porro", "ranking": 221 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Garro", "ranking": 222 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 223 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", 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playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 11.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3401, "tackles": 0.5951, "tackles_won": 0.3915, "clearances": 0.8788, "aerial_won": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.2651, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 17.32, "total_pass": 9.211, "accurate_pass": 7.2486, "duels_won": 0.9007, "total_long_balls": 2.6211, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1791, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3405, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9081, "crosses_total": 1.3912, "crosses_accurate": 0.4631, "touches": 14.7902, "possession_lost": 3.7212, "dispossessed": 0.1019, "duels_lost": 0.2664, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1952, "won_contest": 0.1952, "ball_recovery": 0.431, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.1019, "fouls_drawn": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1199, 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true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.714982 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.077999 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.065523 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.039874 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.033068 } ], "others_margin": 0.02017 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8788332343101501, "model_output": 0.8788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0188 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3181 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0985 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.09 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0739 } ], "others": -0.1516, "total": 0.8788, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886951 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.254859 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086082 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.07837 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.069239 } ], "others_margin": -0.15918 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.22376304864883423, "model_output": 0.2238, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8015 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2121 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0516 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.2238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.872104 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.459511 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.152952 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.119224 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.085352 } ], "others_margin": -0.128158 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.26506543159484863, "model_output": 0.2651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2818 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": 0.025, "total": 0.2651, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.281775 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.021436 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015946 } ], "others_margin": 0.02494 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.766383647918701, "model_output": 6.7664, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.7664, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.031047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025123 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016765 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.012557 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012289 } ], "others_margin": -0.028892 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3459, "tackles": 0.6052, "tackles_won": 0.3981, "clearances": 0.8938, "aerial_won": 0.2276, "total_shots": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 17.32, "total_pass": 9.3676, "accurate_pass": 7.3718, "duels_won": 0.916, "total_long_balls": 2.6657, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3973, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5217, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9745, "crosses_total": 1.4149, "crosses_accurate": 0.471, "touches": 15.0416, "possession_lost": 3.7845, "dispossessed": 0.1036, "duels_lost": 0.2709, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1985, "won_contest": 0.1985, "ball_recovery": 0.4383, "challenges_lost": 0.0637, "fouls": 0.1036, "fouls_drawn": 0.1687, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1219, "assist_rate": 0.1219, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.1219, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0108, "ball_carries": 4.8392, "total_progression": 7.8789, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.1477 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 62000000, "quality_factor": 0.8569, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3486, "tackles": 0.6052, "tackles_won": 0.3964, "clearances": 0.8938, "aerial_won": 0.2276, "total_shots": 0.2702, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 17.32, "total_pass": 9.3676, "accurate_pass": 7.3718, "duels_won": 0.916, "total_long_balls": 2.6657, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3973, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5217, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9745, "crosses_total": 1.4215, "crosses_accurate": 0.471, "touches": 15.0416, "possession_lost": 3.7845, "dispossessed": 0.1036, "duels_lost": 0.2709, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1985, "won_contest": 0.1985, "ball_recovery": 0.4383, "challenges_lost": 0.0637, "fouls": 0.1028, "fouls_drawn": 0.1687, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1223, "assist_rate": 0.1223, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0108, "ball_carries": 4.8392, "total_progression": 7.8789, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.1477 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1924, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4149, "after": 1.4215 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 12.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2596, "tackles": 0.4508, "tackles_won": 0.2952, "clearances": 0.6657, "aerial_won": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.2012, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.977, "accurate_pass": 5.4905, "duels_won": 0.6822, "total_long_balls": 1.9854, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8931, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5303, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9602, "crosses_total": 1.0587, "crosses_accurate": 0.3508, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.8187, "dispossessed": 0.1036, "duels_lost": 0.2018, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1478, "won_contest": 0.1478, "ball_recovery": 0.3264, "challenges_lost": 0.0637, "fouls": 0.0766, "fouls_drawn": 0.1256, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0911, "assist_rate": 0.0911, "expected_goals": 0.0095, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 3.6043, "total_progression": 5.8682, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3159, "shots_off_target": 0.11, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.443, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.9, "projection_minutes": 17.32, "minutes_scale": 0.7448, "appearance_probability": 0.443 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2596, "tackles": 0.4508, "tackles_won": 0.2952, "clearances": 0.6657, "aerial_won": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.2012, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.977, "accurate_pass": 5.4905, "duels_won": 0.6822, "total_long_balls": 1.9854, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8931, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5303, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9602, "crosses_total": 1.0587, 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"aerial_won": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.2012, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.977, "accurate_pass": 5.4905, "duels_won": 0.6822, "total_long_balls": 1.9854, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8931, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5303, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9602, "crosses_total": 1.0587, "crosses_accurate": 0.3508, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.8187, "dispossessed": 0.1036, "duels_lost": 0.2018, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1478, "won_contest": 0.1478, "ball_recovery": 0.3264, "challenges_lost": 0.0637, "fouls": 0.0766, "fouls_drawn": 0.1256, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0095, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 3.6043, "total_progression": 5.8682, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3159, "shots_off_target": 0.11, 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0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8227 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 0.232, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.909566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.336056 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.144423 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.112186 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.043929 } ], "others_margin": -0.234797 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22986261546611786, "model_output": 0.2299, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.2299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.22586 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027371 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021315 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.007075 } ], "others_margin": 0.012625 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.907101631164551, "model_output": 6.9071, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0313, "total": 6.9071, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036084 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03428 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.029013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026786 }, { "name": 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1.8597, "crosses_total": 0.0015, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0455, "possession_lost": 1.4727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3347, "aerial_lost": 0.3347, "total_contest": 0.7876, "won_contest": 0.7876, "ball_recovery": 0.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0007, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1814, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2329 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0068, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1302, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.7 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles": 0.991, "tackles_won": 0.6677, "clearances": 0.9706, "aerial_won": 0.3038, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 15.14, "total_pass": 4.8906, "accurate_pass": 3.7877, "duels_won": 1.7528, "total_long_balls": 0.8764, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3852, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4028, "crosses_total": 0.0019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.811, "possession_lost": 1.9028, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.3347, "total_contest": 1.0176, "won_contest": 1.0176, "ball_recovery": 1.0176, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0009, "fouls_drawn": 0.0009, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5264, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.249, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.14, "projection_minutes": 11.72, "minutes_scale": 1.292, "appearance_probability": 0.249 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles": 0.991, "tackles_won": 0.6677, "clearances": 0.9706, "aerial_won": 0.3038, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 15.14, "total_pass": 4.8906, "accurate_pass": 3.7877, "duels_won": 1.7528, "total_long_balls": 0.8764, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3852, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4028, "crosses_total": 0.0019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.811, "possession_lost": 1.9028, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.3347, "total_contest": 1.0176, "won_contest": 1.0176, "ball_recovery": 1.0176, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0009, "fouls_drawn": 0.0009, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5264, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.249, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles": 0.991, "tackles_won": 0.6677, "clearances": 0.9706, "aerial_won": 0.3038, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 15.14, "total_pass": 4.8906, "accurate_pass": 3.7877, "duels_won": 1.7528, "total_long_balls": 0.8764, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5088, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.1361, "total": 0.2026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220529 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037835 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028726 } ], "others_margin": -0.136059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.744968414306641, "model_output": 6.745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": 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"history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0261, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0567, "total_shots": 0.2049, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 15.5596, "accurate_pass": 14.3144, "duels_won": 2.3316, "total_long_balls": 1.1383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6857, "crosses_total": 0.0119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.5691, "possession_lost": 1.7486, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.9169, "aerial_won": 0.2465, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.517, "tackles": 1.257, "clearances": 0.4357, "total_contest": 0.1941, "won_contest": 0.1145, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.5338, "fouls_drawn": 0.7136, "blocks": 0.5296, "big_chances_created": 0.0228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5045, "total_progression": 25.6481, "progressive_carries": 0.4759, "shots_off_target": 0.1482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0069)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "assists": 0.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2035, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 15.5596, "accurate_pass": 14.3144, "duels_won": 2.3316, "total_long_balls": 1.1383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6857, "crosses_total": 0.0118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.5691, "possession_lost": 1.7486, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.9169, "aerial_won": 0.2465, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2878, "tackles_won": 0.5159, "tackles": 1.257, "clearances": 0.4357, "total_contest": 0.1941, "won_contest": 0.1145, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.5338, "fouls_drawn": 0.7087, "blocks": 0.5296, "big_chances_created": 0.0228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5045, "total_progression": 25.6481, "progressive_carries": 0.4759, "shots_off_target": 0.1482 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0069, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2294, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.6 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "projection_minutes": 20.65, "minutes_scale": 0.831, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.594 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0197, "after": 0.0282 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 956, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "scorer_weight": 0.0211, "squad_weight_total": 3.3733, "weight_share": 0.0062, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3378, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3378, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4167 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3378, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5693, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4167 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Jude Bellingham", "weight": 0.4167, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4167, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "provider_weight": 0.0289, "squad_weight_total": 2.4511, "weight_share": 0.0118, "creation_factor": 1.0258, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Arda Güler", "weight": 0.4874, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4874, "runner_up": "Kylian Mbappé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4792 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.4792, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4792, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3949 } ] } } ] }, "Franco Mastantuono": { "player_id": 1403559, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 177, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0706, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.697, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, 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"importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2515 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": 0.1302, "total": 0.7324, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467524 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.140801 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119295 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.04789 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047886 } ], "others_margin": 0.19567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9880852699279785, "model_output": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goals": 0.1152, "goal_rate": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.3525, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "key_pass": 0.7413, "rating": 6.9881, "minutes": 26.09, "total_pass": 9.0676, "accurate_pass": 6.5892, "duels_won": 2.8285, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1822, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7037, "crosses_total": 0.8445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.6885, "possession_lost": 8.239, "dispossessed": 1.2008, "duels_lost": 3.335, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6209, "won_contest": 1.2417, "ball_recovery": 0.5073, "challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.5579, "fouls_drawn": 1.302, "assists": 0.1425, "assist_rate": 0.1425, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2849, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.453476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.066171 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.056854 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.053834 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.047247 } ], "others_margin": 0.025064 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.24730384349823, "model_output": 1.2473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5224 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0992 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0491 } ], "others": 0.1301, "total": 1.2473, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522428 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.099193 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.064862 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.052597 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.049127 } ], "others_margin": 0.130112 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.054281484335660934, "model_output": 0.0543, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2492 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0295 } ], "others": 0.1655, "total": 0.6678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462133 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.111731 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.076858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073775 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.060433 } ], "others_margin": 0.284722 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.829344749450684, "model_output": 6.8293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.108 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0599, "total": 6.8293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.107964 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04156 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.035221 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017002 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.016597 } ], "others_margin": 0.059927 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1267, "goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.1193, "shots_on_target": 0.4066, "total_shots": 1.2716, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6808, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.865 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1693, "after": 0.1982 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0739, "after": 0.1116 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.407968 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.146017 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.131921 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.089912 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.063359 } ], "others_margin": 0.07254 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6677829623222351, "model_output": 0.6678, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2492 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0295 } ], "others": 0.1655, "total": 0.6678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462133 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.111731 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.076858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073775 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.060433 } ], "others_margin": 0.284722 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.829344749450684, "model_output": 6.8293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.108 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0599, "total": 6.8293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.107964 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04156 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.035221 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017002 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.016597 } ], "others_margin": 0.059927 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1267, "goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.1193, "shots_on_target": 0.4066, "total_shots": 1.2716, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6808, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.865 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1693, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1693, "after": 0.1982 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0739, "after": 0.1116 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.156, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1699, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1699, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "scorer_weight": 0.1893, "squad_weight_total": 3.3733, "weight_share": 0.0561, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3378, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3378, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4167 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3378, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5693, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4167 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Jude Bellingham", "weight": 0.4167, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4167, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1982, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5434, "total_shots": 1.6994, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "key_pass": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8293, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.027, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491378 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.240166 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.187605 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.074244 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.057338 } ], "others_margin": -0.236492 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.05610574781894684, "model_output": 0.0561, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1633 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.0561, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.696088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.335891 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.26551 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088284 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043313 } ], "others_margin": -0.329744 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20257458090782166, "model_output": 0.2026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.1361, "total": 0.2026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220529 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037835 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028726 } ], "others_margin": -0.136059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.744968414306641, "model_output": 6.745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1012 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 6.745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014616 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009323 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008861 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.008652 } ], "others_margin": -0.011997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0261, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0567, "total_shots": 0.2049, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 15.5596, "accurate_pass": 14.3144, "duels_won": 2.3316, "total_long_balls": 1.1383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6857, "crosses_total": 0.0119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.5691, "possession_lost": 1.7486, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.9169, "aerial_won": 0.2465, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2861, "tackles_won": 0.517, "tackles": 1.257, "clearances": 0.4357, "total_contest": 0.1941, "won_contest": 0.1145, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.5338, "fouls_drawn": 0.7136, "blocks": 0.5296, "big_chances_created": 0.0228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5045, "total_progression": 25.6481, "progressive_carries": 0.4759, "shots_off_target": 0.1482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0069)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "assists": 0.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0.2035, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 15.5596, "accurate_pass": 14.3144, "duels_won": 2.3316, "total_long_balls": 1.1383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6857, "crosses_total": 0.0118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.5691, "possession_lost": 1.7486, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.9169, "aerial_won": 0.2465, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2878, "tackles_won": 0.5159, "tackles": 1.257, "clearances": 0.4357, "total_contest": 0.1941, "won_contest": 0.1145, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.5338, "fouls_drawn": 0.7087, "blocks": 0.5296, "big_chances_created": 0.0228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5045, "total_progression": 25.6481, "progressive_carries": 0.4759, "shots_off_target": 0.1482 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0069, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2294, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.6 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "projection_minutes": 20.65, "minutes_scale": 0.831, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.57 (squad xG sum 1.9113, xG scale 1.8673, xA scale 2.4094, team xA 2.32 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.569, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9113, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9628, "team_expected_assists": 2.3199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8673, "xa_scale": 2.4094, "opponent_lambda": 1.3, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.594 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0197, "after": 0.0282 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.249, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.745, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 12.9299, "accurate_pass": 11.8952, "duels_won": 1.9375, "total_long_balls": 0.9459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6994, "total_own_half_passes": 4.949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6775, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2178, "crosses_total": 0.0098, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0928, "possession_lost": 1.4531, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 0.7619, "aerial_won": 0.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.1116, "interceptions": 0.2392, "tackles_won": 0.4287, "tackles": 1.0446, "clearances": 0.3621, "total_contest": 0.1613, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 0.1921, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.5889, "blocks": 0.4401, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7432, "total_progression": 21.3134, "progressive_carries": 0.3955, "shots_off_target": 0.1232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.599, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0693, "creation_factor": 1.0258, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 956, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", 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"Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7084, "skill_edge": -0.1744, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4842, "defender_skill": 0.8717, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "market_value": 66000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8879 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8555 } ], "xg_override": 0.1786 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2359, "after": 1.5839 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5167, "after": 1.0744 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2572, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5095, "total_shots": 1.5839, "expected_assists": 0.1203, "key_pass": 0.9609, "rating": 6.9221, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 9.8791, "accurate_pass": 7.5457, "duels_won": 4.0824, "total_long_balls": 0.1405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1749, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.1862, "touches": 20.2348, "possession_lost": 5.2089, "dispossessed": 1.52, "duels_lost": 7.725, "aerial_lost": 4.3823, "total_contest": 0.6577, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296164 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.08608 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.077903 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062441 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.045553 } ], "others_margin": 0.064762 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.508960247039795, "model_output": 1.509, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.409 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1668 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0406 } ], 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1653 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1103 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.039 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 1.1434, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.219557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.128355 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.109448 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.048973 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.034336 } ], "others_margin": -0.011192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8093390464782715, "model_output": 6.8093, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 6.8093, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05368 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.03073 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.019181 } ], "others_margin": -0.021334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0023, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2293, "goals": 0.2234, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "shots_on_target": 0.6883, "total_shots": 1.5124, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 1.146, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 75.13, "total_pass": 23.0175, "accurate_pass": 15.7189, "duels_won": 3.3401, "total_long_balls": 2.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 1.538, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7604, "crosses_total": 1.6476, "crosses_accurate": 0.5795, "touches": 33.8614, "possession_lost": 10.6517, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6731, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 2.9752, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 1.2235, "fouls_drawn": 0.6878, "assists": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.2673, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "tackles": 0.4545, "clearances": 0.7691, "blocks": 0.8965, "big_chances_created": 0.2673, "big_chances_missed": 0.3896, "xgot": 0.2885, "offsides": 0.5819, "ball_carries": 9.9781, "total_progression": 36.6212, "progressive_carries": 1.9705, "shots_off_target": 0.8241 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0023, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2293, "goals": 0.2234, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "shots_on_target": 0.6883, "total_shots": 1.5124, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 1.146, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 75.13, "total_pass": 23.0175, "accurate_pass": 15.7189, "duels_won": 3.3401, "total_long_balls": 2.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 1.538, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7604, 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"expected_assists": 0.0942, "key_pass": 1.146, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 75.13, "total_pass": 23.0175, "accurate_pass": 15.7189, "duels_won": 3.3401, "total_long_balls": 2.7605, "accurate_long_balls": 1.538, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7604, "crosses_total": 1.6476, "crosses_accurate": 0.5795, "touches": 33.8614, "possession_lost": 10.6517, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6731, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 2.9752, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 1.2235, "fouls_drawn": 0.6878, "assists": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.2673, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "tackles": 0.4545, "clearances": 0.7691, "blocks": 0.8965, "big_chances_created": 0.2673, "big_chances_missed": 0.2643, "xgot": 0.1957, "offsides": 0.5819, "ball_carries": 9.9781, "total_progression": 36.6212, "progressive_carries": 1.9705, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6785, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "opponent_faced": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2241, "goal_rate": 0.1516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.467, "total_shots": 1.0262, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "key_pass": 1.146, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 75.13, "total_pass": 23.0175, "accurate_pass": 15.7189, "duels_won": 3.3401, 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Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "opponent_faced": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9805, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1556, "after": 0.2241 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0942, "after": 0.1297 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0914 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0397, "total": 6.8937, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.091428 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030472 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023308 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018402 } ], 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"opponent_defenders": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "opponent_faced": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1317, "creation_factor": 1.1099 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0981, "after": 0.1413 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1029, "after": 0.1417 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 0.4226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.09065 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049226 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030205 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.026061 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.015279 } ], "others_margin": -0.021611 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.687154769897461, "model_output": 6.6872, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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"interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3708, "combined_rank_score": 1663.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2882.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7586, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Suazo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 3703 }, { "player_name": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "ranking": 3704 }, { "player_name": "Ismail Jakobs", "ranking": 3705 }, { "player_name": "Denis Suárez", "ranking": 3706 }, { "player_name": "Ernest Muçi", "ranking": 3707 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 3709 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beltrán", "ranking": 3710 }, { "player_name": "Niclas Eliasson", "ranking": 3711 }, { "player_name": "Orri Óskarsson", "ranking": 3712 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Núñez", "ranking": 3713 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9996, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.33, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Sevilla, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1076, "tackles": 2.218, "tackles_won": 1.6574, "clearances": 2.2328, "aerial_won": 0.7553, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7586, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 39.1205, "accurate_pass": 32.0584, "duels_won": 4.8748, "total_long_balls": 3.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4485, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7838, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2745, "crosses_total": 2.739, "crosses_accurate": 0.9133, "touches": 59.4574, "possession_lost": 11.6599, "dispossessed": 0.1831, "duels_lost": 4.3191, "aerial_lost": 0.9195, "total_contest": 0.6268, "won_contest": 0.444, "ball_recovery": 4.2205, 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"weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, 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0.2084, "total": 2.218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128155 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.067084 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.065227 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.056878 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.050143 } ], "others_margin": 0.098732 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.6574057340621948, "model_output": 1.6574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0997 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "challengeLost", 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"contribution": 0.3373 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2964 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0666 } ], "others": -0.2018, "total": 2.2328, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.237277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117409 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.102426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094295 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026989 } ], "others_margin": -0.086507 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7553301453590393, "model_output": 0.7553, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3572 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1209 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0867 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0282 } ], "others": -0.1407, "total": 0.7553, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.30025 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.136423 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127347 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.089658 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030984 } ], "others_margin": -0.170767 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3840967118740082, "model_output": 0.3841, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1455 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0339, "total": 0.3841, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.145464 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054394 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.012753 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011193 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010597 } ], "others_margin": -0.033876 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75864839553833, "model_output": 6.7586, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.7586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014398 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014262 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013897 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.012014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011637 } ], "others_margin": -0.016437 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1071, "tackles": 2.2171, "tackles_won": 1.6567, "clearances": 2.2319, "aerial_won": 0.755, "total_shots": 0.384, "rating": 6.7586, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 39.1049, "accurate_pass": 32.0456, "duels_won": 4.8729, "total_long_balls": 3.4113, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4479, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9578, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7783, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.147, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2672, "crosses_total": 2.7379, "crosses_accurate": 0.9129, "touches": 59.4336, "possession_lost": 11.6552, "dispossessed": 0.183, "duels_lost": 4.3174, "aerial_lost": 0.9191, "total_contest": 0.6265, "won_contest": 0.4438, "ball_recovery": 4.2188, "challenges_lost": 1.3548, "fouls": 1.8297, "fouls_drawn": 1.2048, "blocks": 0.3997, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0022, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.1715, "shots_on_target": 0.0094, "big_chances_created": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0011, "ball_carries": 11.6094, "total_progression": 55.7554, "progressive_carries": 1.0372, "key_pass": 1.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.3746 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.105, "tackles": 2.2171, "tackles_won": 1.6512, "clearances": 2.2319, "aerial_won": 0.755, "total_shots": 0.383, "rating": 6.7586, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 39.1049, "accurate_pass": 32.0456, "duels_won": 4.8729, "total_long_balls": 3.4113, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4479, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9578, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7783, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.584)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0761, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2087, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9649, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1917, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1583, "fouls_drawn": 0.7602, "blocks": 0.4355, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 14.8753, "total_progression": 40.9388, "progressive_carries": 0.385, "key_pass": 0.3029, "shots_off_target": 0.6046 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15400000, "quality_factor": 0.5835, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1623, "fouls_drawn": 0.7688, "blocks": 0.4355, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 14.8753, "total_progression": 40.9388, "progressive_carries": 0.385, "key_pass": 0.3029, "shots_off_target": 0.6046 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9983, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7602, "after": 0.7688 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9649, "after": 0.9715 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1623, "fouls_drawn": 0.7688, "blocks": 0.4355, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 14.8753, "total_progression": 40.9388, "progressive_carries": 0.385, "key_pass": 0.3029, "shots_off_target": 0.6046 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1623, "fouls_drawn": 0.7688, "blocks": 0.4355, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 14.8753, "total_progression": 40.9388, "progressive_carries": 0.385, "key_pass": 0.3029, "shots_off_target": 0.6046, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1623, "fouls_drawn": 0.7688, "blocks": 0.4355, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0709, "ball_carries": 14.8753, "total_progression": 40.9388, "progressive_carries": 0.385, "key_pass": 0.3029, "shots_off_target": 0.6046, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9767, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0489, "after": 0.0704 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0394, "after": 0.0542 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, "challenges_lost": 0.955, "fouls": 1.1623, "fouls_drawn": 0.7688, "blocks": 0.4355, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.0542, 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3204, "fifa_rank": 1986.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1797, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9938, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 60.887, "possession_lost": 11.5228, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 2.1285, "total_contest": 0.1422, "won_contest": 0.1085, "ball_recovery": 4.5395, 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"allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "scorer_weight": 0.0688, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0483, "finishing_factor": 0.9767, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0752, "tackles": 1.9085, "tackles_won": 1.2062, "clearances": 5.8842, "aerial_won": 3.0337, "total_shots": 0.9715, "rating": 6.8626, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 46.2586, "accurate_pass": 36.1735, "duels_won": 6.5456, "total_long_balls": 10.2252, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9427, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057397 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010601 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008231 } ], "others_margin": -0.022364 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780399322509766, "model_output": 6.7804, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015188 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009008 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.008782 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008542 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007825 } ], "others_margin": -0.00762 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 0.6039, "fouls_drawn": 0.6388, "blocks": 0.5788, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 13.8619, "total_progression": 53.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.9011, "key_pass": 0.27, "shots_off_target": 0.3091 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 0.6039, "fouls_drawn": 0.6388, "blocks": 0.5788, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 13.8619, "total_progression": 53.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.9011, "key_pass": 0.27, "shots_off_target": 0.3091 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 0.6039, "fouls_drawn": 0.6388, "blocks": 0.5788, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 13.8619, "total_progression": 53.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.9011, "key_pass": 0.27, "shots_off_target": 0.3091, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 0.6039, "fouls_drawn": 0.6388, "blocks": 0.5788, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 13.8619, "total_progression": 53.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.9011, "key_pass": 0.27, "shots_off_target": 0.3091, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 0.6039, "fouls_drawn": 0.6388, "blocks": 0.5788, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.036, "ball_carries": 13.8619, "total_progression": 53.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.9011, "key_pass": 0.27, "shots_off_target": 0.3091, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8361 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.026, "after": 0.0374 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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3519.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7095, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5409, "crosses_total": 0.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.9109, "possession_lost": 6.8401, "dispossessed": 0.0361, "duels_lost": 2.0488, "aerial_lost": 1.3173, "total_contest": 0.4258, "won_contest": 0.3931, "ball_recovery": 4.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.1091, "fouls": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "scorer_weight": 0.0467, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0329, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.1581, "tackles_won": 0.7277, "clearances": 5.2415, "aerial_won": 1.5624, "total_shots": 0.5253, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 89.41, "total_pass": 44.3635, "accurate_pass": 38.2504, "duels_won": 3.486, "total_long_balls": 7.0466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1083, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0219, 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2212 } ], "others": -0.3349, "total": 3.5447, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11906 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.110447 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086721 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.082481 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.055445 } ], "others_margin": -0.090261 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2048817873001099, "model_output": 1.2049, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1617 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0458 } ], "others": -0.1826, "total": 1.2049, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111012 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.061089 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.044756 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.034711 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.032464 } ], "others_margin": -0.141168 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6378404498100281, "model_output": 0.6378, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 0.6378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038988 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031775 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023712 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011332 } ], "others_margin": 0.017792 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.781301021575928, "model_output": 6.7813, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 6.7813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017388 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012413 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012133 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.011503 } ], "others_margin": -0.030046 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goals": 0.0966, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 11.1375, "total_progression": 32.8394, "progressive_carries": 0.6973, "key_pass": 0.5063, "shots_off_target": 0.2354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goals": 0.0966, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 11.1375, "total_progression": 32.8394, "progressive_carries": 0.6973, "key_pass": 0.5063, "shots_off_target": 0.2354 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goals": 0.0966, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 11.1375, "total_progression": 32.8394, "progressive_carries": 0.6973, "key_pass": 0.5063, "shots_off_target": 0.2354, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.329, "opponent_faced": "Jude Bellingham", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 11.1375, "total_progression": 32.8394, "progressive_carries": 0.6973, "key_pass": 0.5063, "shots_off_target": 0.2354, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.329, "opponent_faced": "Jude Bellingham", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "xgot": 0.0686, "ball_carries": 11.1375, "total_progression": 32.8394, "progressive_carries": 0.6973, "key_pass": 0.5063, "shots_off_target": 0.2354, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.329, "opponent_faced": "Jude Bellingham", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0472, "after": 0.068 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0678, "after": 0.0933 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9459, "tackles": 2.8362, "tackles_won": 1.5066, "clearances": 3.5412, "aerial_won": 1.2037, "total_shots": 0.6372, "rating": 6.7813, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 28.7129, "accurate_pass": 20.2546, "duels_won": 7.0914, "total_long_balls": 6.4071, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0646, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.3832, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 3.4727, "crosses_accurate": 0.6994, "touches": 59.3672, "possession_lost": 16.8455, "dispossessed": 0.535, "duels_lost": 4.5751, "aerial_lost": 1.1657, "total_contest": 1.5789, "won_contest": 1.0524, "ball_recovery": 3.1709, "challenges_lost": 1.3217, "fouls": 1.194, "fouls_drawn": 1.3634, "blocks": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.0966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0933, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.934, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0704, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.934, "after": 2.9396 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 31.1, "expected_saves": 7.61, "high_pressure_saves": 2.62, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 3.2715 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 31.1, "expected_saves": 7.61, "high_pressure_saves": 2.62, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 33.9, "expected_saves": 8.3, "high_pressure_saves": 2.86, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 31.1, "after": 33.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 7.61, "after": 8.3 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.62, "after": 2.86 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 33.9, "expected_saves": 8.3, "high_pressure_saves": 2.86, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1276, "fifa_rank": 951.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 33.9, "expected_saves": 8.3, "high_pressure_saves": 2.86, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9396, "goals_prevented": -0.0695, "rating": 7.0271, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8844, "accurate_pass": 13.3219, "total_long_balls": 17.0821, "accurate_long_balls": 6.6674, "touches": 32.586, "clearances": 1.5823, "ball_recovery": 7.8782, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.4297, "aerial_won": 0.5146, "sweeper_actions": 0.5079, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5079, "saves_inside_box": 1.3346, "possession_lost": 10.6408, "duels_won": 0.5961, "duels_lost": 0.0006, "total_contest": 0.0112, "won_contest": 0.0112, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0694, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8572, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8436, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.2715, "shots_faced": 33.9, "expected_saves": 8.3, "high_pressure_saves": 2.86, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Fran González": { "player_id": 1493226, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 199, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, 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}, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, 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"match_id": 14083147, "match_date": "2025-11-30", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083125, "match_date": "2025-11-24", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083120, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.0732, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586826 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.221361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.083907 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045997 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037963 } ], "others_margin": 0.112942 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09578919410705566, "model_output": 0.0958, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0958, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.431686 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.22302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.129555 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.074871 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.062458 } ], "others_margin": -0.078876 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.19638170301914215, "model_output": 0.1964, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1636 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0186, "total": 0.1964, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.697615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.147616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141056 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028631 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022157 } ], "others_margin": -0.090591 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7369608283042908, "model_output": 0.737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1263 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.126283 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.065883 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031587 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031114 } ], "others_margin": -0.003729 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756559371948242, "model_output": 6.7566, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 6.7566, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058078 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030687 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028673 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013544 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013511 } ], "others_margin": -0.013376 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.528)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5759, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assists": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0959, "goal_rate": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.7379, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 24.43, "total_pass": 12.0939, "accurate_pass": 9.4231, "duels_won": 1.2577, "total_long_balls": 0.8748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3695, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3639, "crosses_total": 2.8225, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 20.6104, "possession_lost": 5.9086, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.1082, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1153, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 0.5363, "clearances": 0.0981, "total_contest": 0.2191, "won_contest": 0.2191, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2715, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0148, "ball_carries": 6.7434, "total_progression": 28.3717, "progressive_carries": 1.5308, "shots_off_target": 0.5412 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10500000, "quality_factor": 0.5283, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.33, "projection_minutes": 24.43, "minutes_scale": 0.9141, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.515 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.067, "after": 0.0497 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0533, "after": 0.0378 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3838, "fifa_rank": 3498.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "scorer_weight": 0.0585, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0364, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "provider_weight": 0.0426, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0414, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Djibril Sow": { "player_id": 799054, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 184, "market_value": 7100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.329583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198521 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042285 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022729 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.016408 } ], "others_margin": -0.122811 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729465484619141, "model_output": 6.7295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0817 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 6.7295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08166 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025665 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011545 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005276 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005041 } ], "others_margin": 0.005598 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3682, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.0858, "total_shots": 0.2631, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.902, "accurate_pass": 12.9784, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 1.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.552, "total_own_half_passes": 6.232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.604, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6699, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3744, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3933, "possession_lost": 3.024, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2534, "aerial_won": 0.1256, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2406, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.2807, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9232, "fouls_drawn": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9959, "total_progression": 11.8349, "progressive_carries": 0.2694, "shots_off_target": 0.1773 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7100000, "quality_factor": 0.4878, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.2 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.17, "projection_minutes": 22.21, "minutes_scale": 0.9983, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.025, "after": 0.0183 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.018 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3206, "fifa_rank": 1958.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "goal_rate": 0.036, "scorer_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0148, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "provider_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0211, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, 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"substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0153, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.2371, "goal_rate": 0.2371, "shots_on_target": 0.5522, "total_shots": 1.2366, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2877, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.33, "total_pass": 11.262, "accurate_pass": 7.041, "duels_won": 4.1116, "total_long_balls": 0.3355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3355, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0015, "crosses_total": 0.3355, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 23.8659, "possession_lost": 8.9443, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.2871, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7454, "won_contest": 1.0153, "ball_recovery": 1.8047, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7301, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0153, "xgot": 0.4206, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5368, "total_progression": 36.6864, "progressive_carries": 0.7894, "shots_off_target": 0.6844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.0153, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.3 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.2423, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 25.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0219, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.2423, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1804, "after": 0.1523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "scorer_weight": 0.1904, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.1338, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0119, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Akor Adams": { "player_id": 946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.1034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1078, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0831, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083265, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083161, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.3074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464761 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091542 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082875 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047119 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034691 } ], "others_margin": -0.063198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.690579414367676, "model_output": 6.6906, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 6.6906, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067362 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011785 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010271 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009772 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.009038 } ], "others_margin": -0.049926 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.139, "goals": 0.1672, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "shots_on_target": 0.3564, "total_shots": 0.9704, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.3082, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goals": 0.1729, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goals": 0.1729, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1437, "after": 0.1207 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0262, "after": 0.021 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "scorer_weight": 0.1389, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0976, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0163, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3319, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, 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"contribution": -0.2521 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.2834, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468938 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091982 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075563 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.055072 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043864 } ], "others_margin": -0.130167 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741667747497559, "model_output": 6.7417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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"caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0153, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.2371, "goal_rate": 0.2371, "shots_on_target": 0.5522, "total_shots": 1.2366, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2877, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.33, "total_pass": 11.262, "accurate_pass": 7.041, "duels_won": 4.1116, "total_long_balls": 0.3355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3355, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0015, "crosses_total": 0.3355, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 23.8659, "possession_lost": 8.9443, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.2871, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7454, "won_contest": 1.0153, "ball_recovery": 1.8047, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7301, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0153, "xgot": 0.4206, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5368, "total_progression": 36.6864, "progressive_carries": 0.7894, "shots_off_target": 0.6844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.0153, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.3 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.2423, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 25.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0219, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.2423, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1804, "after": 0.1523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "scorer_weight": 0.1904, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.1338, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.2423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5643, "total_shots": 1.2637, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.294, "rating": 6.7417, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.3628, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6994, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1341, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0119, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Akor Adams": { "player_id": 946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.1034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1078, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0831, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083265, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083161, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.3074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464761 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091542 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082875 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047119 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034691 } ], "others_margin": -0.063198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.690579414367676, "model_output": 6.6906, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 6.6906, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067362 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011785 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010271 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009772 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.009038 } ], "others_margin": -0.049926 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.139, "goals": 0.1672, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "shots_on_target": 0.3564, "total_shots": 0.9704, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.3082, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goals": 0.1729, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goals": 0.1729, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1437, "after": 0.1207 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0262, "after": 0.021 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "scorer_weight": 0.1389, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0976, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "total_shots": 1.0033, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.3186, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1507, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0163, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Oso": { "player_id": 1534422, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 183, "market_value": 10500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0364, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6198, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": 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"importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 6.7566, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058078 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030687 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028673 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013544 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013511 } ], "others_margin": -0.013376 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.528)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5759, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assists": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0959, "goal_rate": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.7379, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 24.43, "total_pass": 12.0939, "accurate_pass": 9.4231, "duels_won": 1.2577, "total_long_balls": 0.8748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3695, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3639, "crosses_total": 2.8225, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 20.6104, "possession_lost": 5.9086, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.1082, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1153, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 0.5363, "clearances": 0.0981, "total_contest": 0.2191, "won_contest": 0.2191, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2715, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0148, "ball_carries": 6.7434, "total_progression": 28.3717, "progressive_carries": 1.5308, "shots_off_target": 0.5412 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10500000, "quality_factor": 0.5283, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.33, "projection_minutes": 24.43, "minutes_scale": 0.9141, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.515 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.067, "after": 0.0497 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0533, "after": 0.0378 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3838, "fifa_rank": 3498.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "scorer_weight": 0.0585, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.6745, "rating": 6.7566, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4947, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0474, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0364, "finishing_factor": 1.1769, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "provider_weight": 0.0426, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0414, "creation_factor": 1.1278, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] }, "Djibril Sow": { "player_id": 799054, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 184, "market_value": 7100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.329583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198521 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042285 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022729 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.016408 } ], "others_margin": -0.122811 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729465484619141, "model_output": 6.7295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0817 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 6.7295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08166 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025665 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011545 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005276 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005041 } ], "others_margin": 0.005598 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3682, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.0858, "total_shots": 0.2631, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.902, "accurate_pass": 12.9784, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 1.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.552, "total_own_half_passes": 6.232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.604, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6699, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3744, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3933, "possession_lost": 3.024, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2534, "aerial_won": 0.1256, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2406, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.2807, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9232, "fouls_drawn": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9959, "total_progression": 11.8349, "progressive_carries": 0.2694, "shots_off_target": 0.1773 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7100000, "quality_factor": 0.4878, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.2 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.17, "projection_minutes": 22.21, "minutes_scale": 0.9983, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 0.9026, xG scale 1.4403, xA scale 1.3766, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.3, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7555, "team_expected_assists": 1.04, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4403, "xa_scale": 1.3766, "opponent_lambda": 3.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.025, "after": 0.0183 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.018 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3206, "fifa_rank": 1958.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "goal_rate": 0.036, "scorer_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 1.4226, "weight_share": 0.0148, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2653, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2653, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3676, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.036, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.2627, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.17, "total_pass": 14.8764, "accurate_pass": 12.9561, "duels_won": 0.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5511, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5944, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3617, "possession_lost": 3.0188, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 1.2512, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.1256, "interceptions": 0.2042, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.6847, "clearances": 0.2802, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9216, "fouls_drawn": 0.1736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9873, "total_progression": 11.8145, "progressive_carries": 0.2689, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 1.1467, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "provider_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 1.0302, "weight_share": 0.0211, "creation_factor": 1.2098, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.189, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robbie Ure" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 1.04, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 384, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.671, "xg_contribution": 0.236, "xg_multiplier": 1.2805, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.329 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Juan Iglesias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.236 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.634, "xg_contribution": 0.205, "xg_multiplier": 1.2262, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.366 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €8M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.0776, "xg_multiplier": 1.1447, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 }, { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (CAM) is slightly favored against Youssouf Fofana and Lucien Agoumé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €17M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.545, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.7852, "xg_multiplier": 1.1648, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 }, { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is slightly favored against Andrés Castrin and Kike Salas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.785 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 132000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.545, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.1726, "xg_multiplier": 1.1639, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 }, { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (ST) is slightly favored against Andrés Castrin and Kike Salas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€132M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.551, "xg_contribution": 0.0601, "xg_multiplier": 1.192, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.449 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CDM) is slightly favored against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Denzel Dumfries", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.0967, "xg_multiplier": 1.0832, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denzel Dumfries (CDM) is slightly favored against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1786, "xg_multiplier": 0.7084, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €56M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.179 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Félix Correia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1556, "xg_multiplier": 0.6785, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Félix Correia (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €56M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chidera Ejuke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0731, "xg_multiplier": 0.6303, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chidera Ejuke (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €56M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.63 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.0981, "xg_multiplier": 0.808, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.035, "xg_multiplier": 0.8246, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.898, "away_midfield_power": 0.58, "home_creative_power": 0.849, "away_creative_power": 0.493, "home_defensive_power": 0.781, "away_defensive_power": 0.695, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.608, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Federico Valverde", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Jude Bellingham vs Lucien Agoumé", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.031, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.96 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.569, "away_lambda": 1.3, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Juan Iglesias", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Félix Correia", "Chidera Ejuke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Félix Correia", "Chidera Ejuke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Félix Correia", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Chidera Ejuke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Denzel Dumfries", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Félix Correia": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Chidera Ejuke": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Arouna Sangante": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Lucien Agoumé). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.63, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.134, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9665, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8832, "home_midfield_factor": 1.031, "away_midfield_factor": 0.96, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8568, "away_avg_quality": 0.521, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3358, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.1667, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.1709, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.4951, "elite_count_gap": 9, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7263, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3995, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2324, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.6332, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.5624 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.031, "result": 1.6108 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6108 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.8525 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.08, "result": 2.0007 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 2.0199 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9665, "result": 1.9523 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 2.1323 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.1323, "result": 2.1323, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7263, "factor": 1.3995, "pre": 2.1323, "result": 2.984 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.984 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 3.204 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 3.2715 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 3.2715, "result": 3.272, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 3.174 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 3.174, "result": 3.3327, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1866, "pre": 3.3327, "result": 3.954 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.954 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9027, "input_total": 4.869, "result": 3.5692 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.5692, "result": 3.569, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 3.569 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5404, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7428 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.7131 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7131 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7131 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9457, "result": 0.6744 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9548, "result": 0.6439 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8832, "result": 0.5687 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.134, "result": 0.7027 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7027, "result": 0.7027, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7263, "factor": 0.7676, "pre": 0.7027, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 0.87 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.4696 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4696, "result": 1.47, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.617 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 1.617, "result": 1.5361, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9374, "pre": 1.5361, "result": 1.44 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.44 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9027, "input_total": 4.869, "result": 1.2998 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.2998, "result": 1.3, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.3 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.7263, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1866, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9374, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.3327, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.5361, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.2715, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4696, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.569, "final_away_lambda": 1.3 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.08, "attack_index": 1.215, "defense_concede_index": 0.988, "form_multiplier": 1.017, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.88, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.53, "team_ppg": 1.87, "opponent_ppg": 1.59 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9457, "attack_index": 1.021, "defense_concede_index": 0.859, "form_multiplier": 0.983, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.58, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.59, "opponent_ppg": 1.87 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Madrid vs Sevilla. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 3.272, Away 1.470). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.569, Away 1.300 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.569, "away_lambda": 1.3, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.272, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.47 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:32:03Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }