{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1321, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1317, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1012, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2846, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1321 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1317 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.105 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0849 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.105, "0-1": 0.1012, "0-2": 0.0505, "0-3": 0.0166, "0-4": 0.0041, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1317, "1-1": 0.1321, "1-2": 0.0646, "1-3": 0.0212, "1-4": 0.0052, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0849, "2-1": 0.0837, "2-2": 0.0413, "2-3": 0.0136, "2-4": 0.0033, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0362, "3-1": 0.0357, "3-2": 0.0176, "3-3": 0.0058, "3-4": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0116, "4-1": 0.0114, "4-2": 0.0056, "4-3": 0.0018, "5-0": 0.003, "5-1": 0.0029, "5-2": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4303, "draw": 0.2846, "away_win": 0.2851 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3947, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6053, "btts_yes": 0.4536, "btts_no": 0.5464, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3731, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2783 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.92, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Bournemouth 2W-2D-2L vs Sunderland over 6 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Rayan, Enzo Le Fée", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Tyler Adams vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CDM vs CDM." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.279, "away_lambda": 0.986, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 6, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1321, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4303, "draw": 0.2846, "away_win": 0.2851 }, "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4303, "fair_spread": 0.293, "fair_total": 2.265, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.279, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 0.986, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3947, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4536, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3731, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2783, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rayan (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.2752, "probability": 0.2406, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.2124, "probability": 0.1914, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1569, "probability": 0.1452, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1661, "probability": 0.153, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.265, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 845, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.7, "possession_away_pct": 51.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4303, "script": "Bournemouth is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.29 goals and fair total 2.27.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Bournemouth lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Bournemouth chance creation leans on Rayan against Kevin Danso, Trai Hume in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Rayan; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Álvaro Rodriguez.", "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Enzo Le Fée; bench watchlist: Habib Diarra, Malick Fofana, Dayann Methalie.", "Assist usage should flow through Marcus Tavernier, Granit Xhaka; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Bournemouth tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.13 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Bournemouth.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Evanilson": { "player_id": 998490, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 181, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2532, "goal_rate": 0.2691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8321, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 8.9414, "dispossessed": 0.8162, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2836, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1883, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0101, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2237, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0655, "finishing_factor": 0.9183, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.611, "expected_assists": 0.097, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1597, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.247, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1287, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5804, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier 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}, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 43, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0743, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2371, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1879, "combined_rank_score": 727.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 876.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8321, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking": 1874 }, { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 }, { "player_name": "Cucho Hernández", "ranking": 1878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vanja Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 1880 }, { "player_name": "Abdülkerim Bardakcı", "ranking": 1881 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Arambarri", "ranking": 1882 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hyeon-Jun", "ranking": 1883 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Pavard", "ranking": 1884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0075, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Bournemouth", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 154.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.1764705882352942, "shots_per90": 1.75, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Bournemouth, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 1.1764705882352942)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2923, "goals": 0.2665, "goal_rate": 0.2665, "shots_on_target": 0.715, "total_shots": 1.9342, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "key_pass": 0.8513, "rating": 6.8321, "minutes": 83.73, "total_pass": 19.8262, "accurate_pass": 15.2931, 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"minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 43.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.4942, "expectedGoals": 0.2841, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.6191, "accuratePass": 15.2268, "totalShots": 1.8982 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.29232874512672424, "model_output": 0.2923, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { 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"name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1635 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0578 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0262 } ], "others": 0.0137, "total": 0.715, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.265485 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.086023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.078448 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.044486 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036669 } ], "others_margin": 0.019291 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9341858625411987, "model_output": 1.9342, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1162 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.073 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0365 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 1.9342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.505562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.116225 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.073014 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.058318 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03651 } ], "others_margin": -0.010235 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06905463337898254, "model_output": 0.0691, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0691, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.181758 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.097683 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.078065 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074759 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.061524 } ], "others_margin": -0.102721 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8513231873512268, "model_output": 0.8513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1541 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0748 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0267 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.8513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.206037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086588 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051664 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.038998 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.029639 } ], "others_margin": -0.041154 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832092761993408, "model_output": 6.8321, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 6.8321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049633 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022853 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016625 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016348 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.010487 } ], "others_margin": 0.0281 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2945, "goals": 0.2685, "goal_rate": 0.2685, "shots_on_target": 0.7203, "total_shots": 1.9487, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "key_pass": 0.8577, "rating": 6.8321, "minutes": 83.73, "total_pass": 19.9749, "accurate_pass": 15.4078, "duels_won": 4.8712, "total_long_balls": 0.6941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2529, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.65, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7248, "crosses_total": 0.5717, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 33.0929, "possession_lost": 8.9414, "dispossessed": 0.8162, "duels_lost": 5.2948, "aerial_lost": 2.4847, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.5775, "ball_recovery": 2.9856, "challenges_lost": 0.2753, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 1.7877, "assists": 0.2772, "assist_rate": 0.2772, "interceptions": 0.7612, 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0101, "skill_edge": 0.0229, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.7389, "defender_skill": 0.6881, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "market_value": 19400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6847 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "market_value": 20000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6914 } ], "xg_override": 0.2975 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9462, "after": 1.9659 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055585 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.043672 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027989 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.019489 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019172 } ], "others_margin": -0.030765 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.0991, "goal_rate": 0.0991, "shots_on_target": 0.3646, "total_shots": 1.5117, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "key_pass": 0.9746, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 8.1285, "accurate_pass": 6.1489, "duels_won": 1.205, "total_long_balls": 0.3582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2135, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5975, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0771, "crosses_total": 1.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.1716, "touches": 12.7996, "possession_lost": 4.165, "dispossessed": 0.2612, "duels_lost": 1.2646, "aerial_lost": 0.3168, "total_contest": 0.6485, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 1.6273, "challenges_lost": 0.3315, "fouls": 0.1333, "fouls_drawn": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0288, "assist_rate": 0.0288, "interceptions": 0.0244, "tackles_won": 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0.1306 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1048 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0779 } ], "others": 0.3992, "total": 1.7062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.213752 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.175357 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123504 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.089142 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.061417 } ], "others_margin": 0.266544 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.09012508392334, "model_output": 7.0901, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0225, "total": 6.9535, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062911 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05819 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015575 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01406 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013202 } ], "others_margin": 0.022567 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0198, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2925, "goals": 0.265, "goal_rate": 0.265, "shots_on_target": 0.8723, "total_shots": 2.3856, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1999, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3359, "fouls_drawn": 0.9051, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "interceptions": 0.5042, "tackles_won": 0.7021, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4434, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 10.3126, "total_progression": 63.9038, "progressive_carries": 3.0462, "shots_off_target": 1.5133 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0198, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2925, "goals": 0.2606, "goal_rate": 0.2606, "shots_on_target": 0.8817, "total_shots": 2.3935, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.031, "interceptions": 0.5037, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4434, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 10.3126, "total_progression": 63.9038, "progressive_carries": 3.0462, "shots_off_target": 1.5133 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9433, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.1999, "after": 2.1632 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9051, "after": 0.89 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7021, "after": 0.6904 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8723, "after": 0.8817 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3856, "after": 2.3935 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.3359, "after": 0.3303 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2925, "goals": 0.2606, "goal_rate": 0.2606, "shots_on_target": 0.8817, "total_shots": 2.395, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, 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14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.031, "interceptions": 0.5037, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4903, "xgot": 0.1661, "offsides": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 10.3126, "total_progression": 63.9038, "progressive_carries": 3.0462, "shots_off_target": 1.6733, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1057, "skill_edge": 0.0719, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.6881, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "market_value": 19400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6847 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "market_value": 20000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6914 } ], "xg_override": 0.3234 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.395, "after": 2.6482 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5133, "after": 1.6733 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8817, "after": 0.9749 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4434, "after": 0.4903 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2925, "after": 0.3234 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2606, "after": 0.2881 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1502, "after": 0.1661 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3234, "goal_rate": 0.2881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9749, "total_shots": 2.6482, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assist_rate": 0.031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5037, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4903, "xgot": 0.1661, "offsides": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 10.3126, "total_progression": 63.9038, "progressive_carries": 3.0462, "shots_off_target": 1.6733, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2752, "goal_rate": 0.2881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9749, "total_shots": 2.6482, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assist_rate": 0.031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5037, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4903, "xgot": 0.1414, "offsides": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 10.3126, "total_progression": 63.9038, "progressive_carries": 3.0462, "shots_off_target": 1.6733, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Danso, Trai Hume", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9055, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3234, "after": 0.2752 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2752, "goal_rate": 0.2881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9749, "total_shots": 2.6482, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assist_rate": 0.031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5037, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "tackles": 1.0082, "clearances": 1.3797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1906, "big_chances_missed": 0.4903, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2752, "goal_rate": 0.2881, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.9749, "total_shots": 2.6482, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.9375, "rating": 6.9535, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.1569, "accurate_pass": 13.6488, "duels_won": 4.8656, "total_long_balls": 1.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.418, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1091, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4484, "crosses_total": 2.1632, "crosses_accurate": 0.5325, "touches": 34.1381, "possession_lost": 10.9401, "dispossessed": 0.4944, "duels_lost": 5.1785, "aerial_lost": 2.8006, "total_contest": 1.4897, "won_contest": 0.5339, "ball_recovery": 1.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.6147, "fouls": 0.3303, "fouls_drawn": 0.89, "assist_rate": 0.031, 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}, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035141 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025691 } ], "others_margin": 0.001642 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.812615394592285, "model_output": 6.8126, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 6.8126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038595 }, { "name": 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0.306, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8471, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0639, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2401, "total_shots": 0.8625, "rating": 6.8126, "minutes": 70.21, "total_pass": 32.0329, "accurate_pass": 25.2853, "duels_won": 4.4352, "total_long_balls": 4.049, 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"opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9466, "creation_factor": 0.9437 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0661, "after": 0.0563 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0433, "total": 0.303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115006 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046568 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03844 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011584 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009849 } ], "others_margin": -0.043173 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5980377197265625, "model_output": 6.598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7459, "tackles": 1.4683, "tackles_won": 0.8546, "clearances": 2.4957, "aerial_won": 0.801, "total_shots": 0.3021, "rating": 6.598, "minutes": 82.1, "total_pass": 25.2003, "accurate_pass": 19.7128, "duels_won": 2.9185, "total_long_balls": 4.2886, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3638, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5395, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6752, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1733, "crosses_total": 0.6786, "crosses_accurate": 0.2127, "touches": 42.1322, "possession_lost": 9.1712, "dispossessed": 0.0424, "duels_lost": 3.29, "aerial_lost": 1.0123, "total_contest": 0.3996, "won_contest": 0.1484, "ball_recovery": 2.4394, "challenges_lost": 0.9871, "fouls": 1.167, "fouls_drawn": 1.0632, "blocks": 0.4976, "goals": 0.0, 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nilson Angulo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7541, "tackles": 1.4683, "tackles_won": 0.8494, "clearances": 2.4957, "aerial_won": 0.801, "total_shots": 0.3021, "rating": 6.598, "minutes": 82.1, "total_pass": 25.2003, "accurate_pass": 19.7128, "duels_won": 2.9185, "total_long_balls": 4.2886, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3638, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5395, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6752, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1733, "crosses_total": 0.6817, "crosses_accurate": 0.2127, "touches": 42.1322, "possession_lost": 9.1712, "dispossessed": 0.0424, "duels_lost": 3.29, "aerial_lost": 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7541, "tackles": 1.4683, "tackles_won": 0.8494, "clearances": 2.4957, "aerial_won": 0.801, "total_shots": 0.3021, "rating": 6.598, "minutes": 82.1, "total_pass": 25.2003, "accurate_pass": 19.7128, "duels_won": 2.9185, "total_long_balls": 4.2886, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3638, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5395, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6752, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1733, "crosses_total": 0.6817, "crosses_accurate": 0.2127, "touches": 42.1322, "possession_lost": 9.1712, "dispossessed": 0.0424, "duels_lost": 3.29, "aerial_lost": 1.0123, "total_contest": 0.3996, "won_contest": 0.1484, "ball_recovery": 2.4394, 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}, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 6.9227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034363 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.034072 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.028944 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.025084 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02331 } ], "others_margin": 0.002315 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9235, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0105, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9235, "after": 2.9374 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9855, "shots_faced": 9.4, "expected_saves": 2.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.9855 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9855, "shots_faced": 9.4, "expected_saves": 2.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9855, "shots_faced": 9.4, "expected_saves": 2.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9855, "shots_faced": 9.4, "expected_saves": 2.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1125, "fifa_rank": 889.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2476, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9855, "shots_faced": 9.4, "expected_saves": 2.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2321, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.2492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2492, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2325 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9374, "goals_prevented": -0.1091, "rating": 6.9227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.448, "accurate_pass": 18.3891, "total_long_balls": 12.8474, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0681, "touches": 37.4978, "clearances": 1.0021, "ball_recovery": 8.1554, "high_claims": 1.1426, "punches": 0.9475, "aerial_won": 0.546, "sweeper_actions": 0.6061, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6023, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 9.3713, "duels_won": 0.5915, "duels_lost": 0.0034, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1227, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adrien Truffert": { "player_id": 999028, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 176, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8234, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.5213, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.1119, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0357, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1059, "finishing_factor": 0.8211, "creation_factor": 1.0963, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2925, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0799, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 6, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0095, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122474 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091718 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086612 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.067575 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031582 } ], "others_margin": -0.11062 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0585441589355469, "model_output": 1.0585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2401 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1567 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0411 } ], "others": -0.0995, "total": 1.0585, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.191584 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129086 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.040603 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.035474 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034847 } ], "others_margin": -0.089818 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7369630932807922, "model_output": 0.737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0724 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0732, "total": 0.737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.072392 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.03583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.0317 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031205 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018189 } ], "others_margin": 0.073147 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.823355197906494, "model_output": 6.8234, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0135, "total": 6.8234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018985 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.013207 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012811 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009186 } ], "others_margin": 0.013428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1433, "tackles": 2.4238, "tackles_won": 1.4094, "clearances": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 1.0662, "total_shots": 0.7423, "rating": 6.8234, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 40.6103, "accurate_pass": 34.8753, "duels_won": 5.7923, "total_long_balls": 2.8457, "accurate_long_balls": 1.324, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2419, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6246, "crosses_total": 3.8209, "crosses_accurate": 1.0242, "touches": 67.6914, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.5213, "duels_lost": 5.0482, "aerial_lost": 1.0164, "total_contest": 1.6644, "won_contest": 0.8107, "ball_recovery": 4.2185, "challenges_lost": 1.124, "fouls": 1.5327, "fouls_drawn": 0.6238, "blocks": 0.2193, "goals": 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"match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6968, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bafodé Diakité", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aldrix Jara", "ranking": 2261 }, { "player_name": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "ranking": 2262 }, { "player_name": "Chimy Ávila", "ranking": 2263 }, { "player_name": "Andrés Martín", "ranking": 2264 }, { "player_name": "Brais Méndez", "ranking": 2265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kwasi Sibo", "ranking": 2267 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Henderson", "ranking": 2268 }, { "player_name": "Andoni Gorosabel", "ranking": 2269 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-Yeon Wu", "ranking": 2270 }, { "player_name": "Leo Román", "ranking": 2271 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2583 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0202 } ], "others": -0.028, "total": 0.2878, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.258278 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032007 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.026608 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02085 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.020221 } ], "others_margin": 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0.0012, "total": 0.0962, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.301592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.21653 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.09706 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.07883 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074372 } ], "others_margin": 0.012093 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18404032289981842, "model_output": 0.184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1466 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0172 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 0.184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597759 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.176217 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.107358 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.093375 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082645 } ], "others_margin": -0.080707 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7251372933387756, "model_output": 0.7251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2262 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0421 } ], "others": -0.0658, "total": 0.7251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.408918 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.22623 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.064771 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044641 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.042124 } ], "others_margin": -0.065715 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0550055503845215, "model_output": 7.055, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1557 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0985 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0869 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0121, "total": 7.055, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.155661 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098531 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086934 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02822 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017499 } ], "others_margin": 0.012165 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.877)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9549, "expected_assists": 0.0883, "assists": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.0706, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.0973, "shots_on_target": 0.1862, "total_shots": 0.7338, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.7704, "accurate_pass": 10.8998, "duels_won": 2.5244, "total_long_balls": 1.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6186, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7067, "crosses_total": 0.8526, "crosses_accurate": 0.2842, "touches": 22.5273, "possession_lost": 5.3417, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8055, "aerial_won": 1.237, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.6186, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3343, "clearances": 0.6687, "total_contest": 0.9027, "won_contest": 0.3343, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6186, "blocks": 0.3343, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8597, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.5475 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 75000000, "quality_factor": 0.877, "boost_factor": 1.0119, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9549, "expected_assists": 0.0883, "assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0699, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "goals": 0.0979, "goal_rate": 0.0979, "shots_on_target": 0.186, "total_shots": 0.7301, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.7704, "accurate_pass": 10.8998, "duels_won": 2.5244, "total_long_balls": 1.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6186, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7067, "crosses_total": 0.8569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2842, "touches": 22.5273, "possession_lost": 5.3417, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8055, "aerial_won": 1.237, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.6159, "tackles_won": 0.0061, "tackles": 0.3343, "clearances": 0.6687, "total_contest": 0.9027, "won_contest": 0.3343, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.003, "fouls_drawn": 0.619, "blocks": 0.3343, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8597, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.5475 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3304, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0061 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7614, "expected_assists": 0.0704, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0781, "shots_on_target": 0.1483, "total_shots": 0.5849, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3179 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0364 } ], "others": 0.0977, "total": 0.8672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606124 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.317875 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.059913 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.038686 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.036412 } ], "others_margin": 0.097725 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698536396026611, "model_output": 6.6985, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1815 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0434 } ], "others": 0.0851, "total": 0.7533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.314129 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.154296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.138504 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.076417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.062986 } ], "others_margin": 0.120101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672764778137207, "model_output": 6.6728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 6.6728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079641 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015337 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012845 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.01087 } ], "others_margin": -0.021353 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1306, "shots_on_target": 0.3949, "total_shots": 1.2001, "expected_assists": 0.061, "key_pass": 0.7642, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 18.05, "total_pass": 7.6258, "accurate_pass": 5.2755, "duels_won": 0.5703, "total_long_balls": 0.2208, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6362, "crosses_total": 0.2282, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3459, "possession_lost": 4.0062, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 1.5076, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.4581, "won_contest": 0.1494, "ball_recovery": 1.6775, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 0.7726, "fouls_drawn": 0.1774, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2434, "tackles_won": 0.1508, "tackles": 0.1508, "clearances": 0.7861, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1689, "xgot": 0.2701, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5632, "total_progression": 1.8098, "progressive_carries": 0.4919, "shots_off_target": 0.8052 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goals": 0.1955, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 18.05, "minutes_scale": 1.4969, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goals": 0.1955, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1882, "after": 0.102 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0913, "after": 0.0566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0943, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0943, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "scorer_weight": 0.1051, "squad_weight_total": 1.2321, "weight_share": 0.0853, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.2492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2492, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2325 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0943, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0542, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 6.6751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067786 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014563 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011558 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011057 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010168 } ], "others_margin": -0.049348 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1305, "goal_rate": 0.1305, "shots_on_target": 0.2958, "total_shots": 0.8706, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3538, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 5.4984, "accurate_pass": 3.5802, "duels_won": 2.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.0647, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0647, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7647, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2349, "possession_lost": 3.0227, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.0847, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4373, "won_contest": 0.4373, "ball_recovery": 0.9346, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2913, "fouls_drawn": 0.8211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1812, "tackles": 0.1812, "clearances": 0.6366, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2361, "xgot": 0.0159, "offsides": 0.3054, "ball_carries": 2.3119, "total_progression": 3.0407, "progressive_carries": 0.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.5748 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.8701, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3538, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 5.4984, "accurate_pass": 3.5802, "duels_won": 2.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.0647, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0647, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7647, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2349, "possession_lost": 3.0227, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.0847, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4373, "won_contest": 0.4373, "ball_recovery": 0.9346, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2921, "fouls_drawn": 0.8216, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1811, "tackles": 0.1812, "clearances": 0.6366, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2361, "xgot": 0.0159, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3119, "total_progression": 3.0407, "progressive_carries": 0.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.5748 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1863, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.8 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 16.77, "minutes_scale": 1.025, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0945, "after": 0.059 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.028, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "scorer_weight": 0.0737, "squad_weight_total": 1.2321, "weight_share": 0.0599, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.2492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2492, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2325 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 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"importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0308, "total": 0.3524, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.443758 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.071627 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071076 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040312 } ], "others_margin": -0.083844 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.675100326538086, "model_output": 6.6751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 6.6751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067786 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014563 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011558 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011057 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010168 } ], "others_margin": -0.049348 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1305, "goal_rate": 0.1305, "shots_on_target": 0.2958, "total_shots": 0.8706, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3538, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 5.4984, "accurate_pass": 3.5802, "duels_won": 2.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.0647, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0647, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7647, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2349, "possession_lost": 3.0227, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.0847, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4373, "won_contest": 0.4373, "ball_recovery": 0.9346, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2913, "fouls_drawn": 0.8211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1812, "tackles": 0.1812, "clearances": 0.6366, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2361, "xgot": 0.0159, "offsides": 0.3054, "ball_carries": 2.3119, "total_progression": 3.0407, "progressive_carries": 0.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.5748 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.8701, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3538, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 5.4984, "accurate_pass": 3.5802, "duels_won": 2.6316, "total_long_balls": 0.0647, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0647, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7647, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2349, "possession_lost": 3.0227, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.0847, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4373, "won_contest": 0.4373, "ball_recovery": 0.9346, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2921, "fouls_drawn": 0.8216, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1811, "tackles": 0.1812, "clearances": 0.6366, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2361, "xgot": 0.0159, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3119, "total_progression": 3.0407, "progressive_carries": 0.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.5748 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1863, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.8 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 16.77, "minutes_scale": 1.025, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0163, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0945, "after": 0.059 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.028, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.303, "total_shots": 0.8922, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3627, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.6361, "accurate_pass": 3.6699, "duels_won": 2.6975, "total_long_balls": 0.0663, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0663, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4912, "possession_lost": 3.0984, "dispossessed": 0.316, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_lost": 1.5768, "total_contest": 0.4483, "won_contest": 0.4483, "ball_recovery": 0.958, "challenges_lost": 0.0244, "fouls": 0.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1856, "tackles": 0.1857, "clearances": 0.6525, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.242, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 0.3052, "ball_carries": 2.3698, "total_progression": 3.1169, "progressive_carries": 0.1774, "shots_off_target": 0.5892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "scorer_weight": 0.0737, "squad_weight_total": 1.2321, "weight_share": 0.0599, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 7, 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.240282 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.036731 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.032002 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.031109 } ], "others_margin": 0.037046 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.060124337673187256, "model_output": 0.0601, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.0601, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.244006 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.163188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.08849 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.087081 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042565 } ], "others_margin": 0.056144 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7533251643180847, "model_output": 0.7533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1815 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0434 } ], "others": 0.0851, "total": 0.7533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.314129 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.154296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.138504 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.076417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.062986 } ], "others_margin": 0.120101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672764778137207, "model_output": 6.6728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 6.6728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079641 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015337 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012845 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.01087 } ], "others_margin": -0.021353 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1306, "shots_on_target": 0.3949, "total_shots": 1.2001, "expected_assists": 0.061, "key_pass": 0.7642, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 18.05, "total_pass": 7.6258, "accurate_pass": 5.2755, "duels_won": 0.5703, "total_long_balls": 0.2208, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6362, "crosses_total": 0.2282, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3459, "possession_lost": 4.0062, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 1.5076, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.4581, "won_contest": 0.1494, "ball_recovery": 1.6775, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 0.7726, "fouls_drawn": 0.1774, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2434, "tackles_won": 0.1508, "tackles": 0.1508, "clearances": 0.7861, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1689, "xgot": 0.2701, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5632, "total_progression": 1.8098, "progressive_carries": 0.4919, "shots_off_target": 0.8052 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goals": 0.1955, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 18.05, "minutes_scale": 1.4969, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goals": 0.1955, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 1.5028, xG scale 0.8511, xA scale 0.9726, team xA 0.83 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.279, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8548, "team_expected_assists": 0.8313, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8511, "xa_scale": 0.9726, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1882, "after": 0.102 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0913, "after": 0.0566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.7964, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 1.1439, "rating": 6.6728, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.2053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.385, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0943, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0943, "goal_rate": 0.1955, "scorer_weight": 0.1051, "squad_weight_total": 1.2321, "weight_share": 0.0853, "finishing_factor": 1.0306, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 5, 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1781 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.1036 } ], "others": -0.198, "total": 3.3688, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132143 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.080196 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048093 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033056 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.028618 } ], "others_margin": -0.057169 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.7801798582077026, "model_output": 1.7802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2804 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2002 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0964 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0669 } ], "others": -0.1763, "total": 1.7802, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.185321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113988 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050565 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.034757 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.033626 } ], "others_margin": -0.094426 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42903807759284973, "model_output": 0.429, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1283 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.12833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053223 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.034616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.013751 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008717 } ], "others_margin": -0.010005 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738072872161865, "model_output": 6.7381, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0114, "total": 6.7381, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014877 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012269 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010474 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008083 } ], "others_margin": 0.011318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.185, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2687, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.4281, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7473, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, "challenges_lost": 0.9466, "fouls": 1.3077, "fouls_drawn": 1.1072, "blocks": 0.5056, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0183, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1439, "total_progression": 22.1245, "progressive_carries": 0.4526, "key_pass": 0.6118, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1938, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2647, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, "challenges_lost": 0.9466, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 1.1052, "blocks": 0.5056, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0181, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1439, "total_progression": 22.1245, "progressive_carries": 0.4526, "key_pass": 0.6118, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9463, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3077, "after": 1.3208 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.185, "after": 1.1938 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7473, "after": 0.7556 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4281, "after": 0.4228 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1938, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2647, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.428, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, 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"Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1938, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2647, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.428, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, "challenges_lost": 0.9466, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 1.1052, "blocks": 0.5056, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1439, "total_progression": 22.1245, "progressive_carries": 0.4526, "key_pass": 0.6118, "shots_off_target": 0.428, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1938, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2647, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.428, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, "challenges_lost": 0.9466, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 1.1052, "blocks": 0.5056, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1439, "total_progression": 22.1245, "progressive_carries": 0.4526, "key_pass": 0.6118, "shots_off_target": 0.428, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.034 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1938, "tackles": 1.9988, "tackles_won": 1.2647, "clearances": 3.361, "aerial_won": 1.7761, "total_shots": 0.428, "rating": 6.7381, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 37.0695, "accurate_pass": 30.9344, "duels_won": 5.6173, "total_long_balls": 3.1601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1621, "total_own_half_passes": 19.239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8291, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1053, "crosses_total": 0.7556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1547, "touches": 58.7105, "possession_lost": 10.1061, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 3.604, "aerial_lost": 0.8501, "total_contest": 0.7883, "won_contest": 0.5892, "ball_recovery": 3.9864, "challenges_lost": 0.9466, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 1.1052, "blocks": 0.5056, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.034, 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"importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 0.521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059684 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033956 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.011892 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011057 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.011007 } ], "others_margin": -0.013171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753843784332275, "model_output": 6.7538, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.7538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016956 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.01311 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009445 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.007831 } ], "others_margin": -0.018516 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles": 1.1472, "tackles_won": 0.6231, "clearances": 5.7012, "aerial_won": 2.5812, "total_shots": 0.5215, "rating": 6.7538, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.3006, "fouls_drawn": 0.391, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2119, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.3096 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.968, "tackles": 1.1472, "tackles_won": 0.6221, "clearances": 5.7012, "aerial_won": 2.5812, "total_shots": 0.5206, "rating": 6.7538, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.3096 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8679, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to 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"big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.3096 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.968, "tackles": 1.1472, "tackles_won": 0.6221, "clearances": 5.7012, "aerial_won": 2.5812, "total_shots": 0.5211, "rating": 6.7538, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, 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"tackles": 1.1472, "tackles_won": 0.6221, "clearances": 5.7012, "aerial_won": 2.5812, "total_shots": 0.5211, "rating": 6.7538, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.3096, "opponent_faced": "Marcus Tavernier", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.968, "tackles": 1.1472, "tackles_won": 0.6221, "clearances": 5.7012, "aerial_won": 2.5812, "total_shots": 0.5211, "rating": 6.7538, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, 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}, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109137 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.098059 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062481 } ], "others_margin": -0.284529 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1154050827026367, "model_output": 1.1154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3757 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0249 } ], "others": 0.1104, "total": 1.1154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.375692 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.069173 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.035097 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025603 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024904 } ], "others_margin": 0.110436 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825333595275879, "model_output": 6.8253, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0234, "total": 6.8253, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037066 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015491 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.015211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009885 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.009697 } ], "others_margin": 0.02343 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1948, "tackles": 1.9528, "tackles_won": 1.1837, "clearances": 3.9672, "aerial_won": 1.7844, "total_shots": 1.1193, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.15, "total_pass": 40.3316, "accurate_pass": 32.0712, "duels_won": 6.5651, "total_long_balls": 4.9185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5076, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6599, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4113, "crosses_total": 3.3363, "crosses_accurate": 0.8988, "touches": 66.2912, "possession_lost": 14.443, "dispossessed": 0.5258, "duels_lost": 5.0982, "aerial_lost": 2.468, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.6389, "ball_recovery": 5.0239, "challenges_lost": 0.6568, "fouls": 1.2518, "fouls_drawn": 0.7487, "blocks": 0.5048, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.3323, "big_chances_created": 0.201, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 17.8145, "total_progression": 74.5986, "progressive_carries": 1.4557, "key_pass": 0.5856, "shots_off_target": 0.787 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17100000, "quality_factor": 0.6016, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1937, "tackles": 1.9528, "tackles_won": 1.1776, "clearances": 3.9672, "aerial_won": 1.7844, "total_shots": 1.1135, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.15, "total_pass": 40.3316, "accurate_pass": 32.0712, "duels_won": 6.5651, "total_long_balls": 4.9185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5076, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6599, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4113, "crosses_total": 3.3241, "crosses_accurate": 0.8988, "touches": 66.2912, "possession_lost": 14.443, "dispossessed": 0.5258, "duels_lost": 5.0982, "aerial_lost": 2.468, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.6389, "ball_recovery": 5.0239, "challenges_lost": 0.6568, "fouls": 1.2453, "fouls_drawn": 0.7448, "blocks": 0.5048, "goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "big_chances_created": 0.201, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 17.8145, "total_progression": 74.5986, "progressive_carries": 1.4557, "key_pass": 0.5856, "shots_off_target": 0.787 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9794, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 }, { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", 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37.3687, "accurate_pass": 24.9718, "total_long_balls": 18.8165, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5245, "touches": 46.2893, "clearances": 1.2145, "ball_recovery": 7.5416, "high_claims": 0.9339, "punches": 1.2994, "aerial_won": 0.3509, "sweeper_actions": 0.5167, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5167, "saves_inside_box": 1.5157, "possession_lost": 12.6055, "duels_won": 0.823, "duels_lost": 0.0061, "total_contest": 0.0798, "won_contest": 0.0798, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4705, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5176, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1449 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.5244, "save_contribution": 1.3945, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9304, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 20.1449, "passValueNormalized": 0.105, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 21.5176 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8614423274993896, "model_output": 2.8614, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.1074, "total": 2.8614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.007107 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007018 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.004572 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004452 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004292 } ], "others_margin": -0.036829 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08094029873609543, "model_output": -0.0809, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": -0.0809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050891 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": -0.031993 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.020493 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.017997 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.017889 } ], "others_margin": -0.015346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9669342041015625, "model_output": 6.9669, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 6.9669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052367 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028288 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.017905 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.016419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01322 } ], "others_margin": -0.033444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "saves": 2.882, "goals_prevented": -0.0815, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.6378, "accurate_pass": 25.1516, "total_long_balls": 18.952, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5715, "touches": 46.6226, "clearances": 1.2232, "ball_recovery": 7.5959, "high_claims": 0.9406, "punches": 1.3088, "aerial_won": 0.3534, "sweeper_actions": 0.5204, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5204, "saves_inside_box": 1.5266, "possession_lost": 12.6963, "duels_won": 0.8289, "duels_lost": 0.0061, "total_contest": 0.0804, "won_contest": 0.0804, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4739, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2899 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8596, "goals_prevented": -0.0815, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.6378, "accurate_pass": 25.1516, "total_long_balls": 18.952, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5715, "touches": 46.6226, "clearances": 1.2232, "ball_recovery": 7.5959, "high_claims": 0.9406, "punches": 1.3088, "aerial_won": 0.3534, "sweeper_actions": 0.5204, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5204, "saves_inside_box": 1.5266, "possession_lost": 12.6963, "duels_won": 0.8289, "duels_lost": 0.0061, "total_contest": 0.0804, "won_contest": 0.0804, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2899 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.882, "after": 2.8596 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8596, "goals_prevented": -0.0815, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.6378, "accurate_pass": 25.1516, "total_long_balls": 18.952, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5715, "touches": 46.6226, "clearances": 1.2232, "ball_recovery": 7.5959, "high_claims": 0.9406, "punches": 1.3088, "aerial_won": 0.3534, "sweeper_actions": 0.5204, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5204, "saves_inside_box": 1.5266, "possession_lost": 12.6963, "duels_won": 0.8289, "duels_lost": 0.0061, "total_contest": 0.0804, "won_contest": 0.0804, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2899 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8596, "goals_prevented": -0.0815, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.6378, "accurate_pass": 25.1516, "total_long_balls": 18.952, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5715, "touches": 46.6226, "clearances": 1.2232, "ball_recovery": 7.5959, "high_claims": 0.9406, "punches": 1.3088, "aerial_won": 0.3534, "sweeper_actions": 0.5204, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5204, "saves_inside_box": 1.5266, "possession_lost": 12.6963, "duels_won": 0.8289, "duels_lost": 0.0061, "total_contest": 0.0804, "won_contest": 0.0804, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2899, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.279, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.279 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1022, "fifa_rank": 527.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8596, "goals_prevented": -0.0815, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.6378, "accurate_pass": 25.1516, "total_long_balls": 18.952, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5715, "touches": 46.6226, "clearances": 1.2232, "ball_recovery": 7.5959, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "expected_goals": 0.2223, "goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "shots_on_target": 0.6012, "total_shots": 1.7106, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2348, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6756, "tackles_won": 1.146, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5767, "fouls_drawn": 1.5659, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2029, "xgot": 0.2293, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.1094 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "assists": 0.1307, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "expected_goals": 0.2223, "goals": 0.193, "goal_rate": 0.193, "shots_on_target": 0.6005, "total_shots": 1.7139, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2029, "xgot": 0.2293, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.1094 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9743, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.2348, "after": 3.2244 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "assists": 0.1307, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "expected_goals": 0.2223, "goals": 0.193, "goal_rate": 0.193, "shots_on_target": 0.6005, "total_shots": 1.7139, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2029, "xgot": 0.2293, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.1094 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "assists": 0.1307, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "expected_goals": 0.2473, "goals": 0.2147, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2257, "xgot": 0.2551, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.2343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "skill_edge": 0.0966, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.7385, "defender_skill": 0.5238, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5238 } ], "xg_override": 0.2473 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4364, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7139, "after": 1.9069 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1094, "after": 1.2343 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6005, "after": 0.6681 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2293, "after": 0.2551 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2223, "after": 0.2473 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2029, "after": 0.2257 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.193, "after": 0.2147 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2473, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2257, "xgot": 0.2551, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.2343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2124, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2257, "xgot": 0.2191, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.2343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "creation_factor": 0.8536 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2473, "after": 0.2124 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1617, "after": 0.1389 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2124, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2257, "xgot": 0.2191, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.2343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "creation_factor": 0.8536, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1283, "fifa_rank": 687.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2124, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7135, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3762, "crosses_total": 3.2244, "crosses_accurate": 1.402, "touches": 49.7806, "possession_lost": 13.1189, "dispossessed": 0.7911, "duels_lost": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7828, "interceptions": 0.6742, "tackles_won": 1.1449, "tackles": 1.7521, "clearances": 0.2971, "total_contest": 1.9556, "won_contest": 0.6818, "challenges_lost": 0.897, "fouls": 0.5761, "fouls_drawn": 1.5657, "blocks": 0.1033, "big_chances_created": 0.7724, "big_chances_missed": 0.2257, "xgot": 0.2191, "ball_carries": 12.0479, "total_progression": 30.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.3448, "shots_off_target": 1.2343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Christie", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.1914, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "creation_factor": 0.8536, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.1914, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "scorer_weight": 0.1891, "squad_weight_total": 0.9086, "weight_share": 0.2081, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1891, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1891, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1584 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6926, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2124, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6681, "total_shots": 1.9069, "rating": 6.8904, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 32.3315, "accurate_pass": 25.0898, "duels_won": 4.4362, "total_long_balls": 1.3735, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6934, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1234, 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"others_margin": -0.111405 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5072147250175476, "model_output": 0.5072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 0.5072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054942 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030174 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.014018 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.01377 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011265 } ], "others_margin": -0.041385 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.690629005432129, "model_output": 6.6906, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 6.6906, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040407 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021517 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018835 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016358 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015316 } ], "others_margin": -0.024675 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.631)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7439, "tackles": 1.9677, "tackles_won": 1.1474, "clearances": 2.0619, "aerial_won": 0.9391, "total_shots": 0.5092, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 85.93, "total_pass": 30.9858, "accurate_pass": 23.806, "duels_won": 4.3059, "total_long_balls": 2.0552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8654, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4033, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4027, "crosses_total": 2.378, "crosses_accurate": 0.5193, "touches": 48.8641, "possession_lost": 12.3358, "dispossessed": 0.4013, "duels_lost": 3.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.2714, "total_contest": 0.5991, "won_contest": 0.1433, "ball_recovery": 3.3511, "challenges_lost": 0.5399, "fouls": 0.9409, "fouls_drawn": 0.8761, "blocks": 0.3776, "goals": 0.1005, "goal_rate": 0.1005, "assists": 0.0013, "assist_rate": 0.0013, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "expected_assists": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.1236, "big_chances_created": 0.2262, "xgot": 0.0727, "ball_carries": 8.6046, "total_progression": 22.2423, "progressive_carries": 0.6785, "key_pass": 1.3386, "shots_off_target": 0.3856 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 20000000, "quality_factor": 0.6311, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7418, "tackles": 1.9677, "tackles_won": 1.1548, "clearances": 2.0619, "aerial_won": 0.9391, "total_shots": 0.5136, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 85.93, "total_pass": 30.9858, "accurate_pass": 23.806, "duels_won": 4.3059, "total_long_balls": 2.0552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8654, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4033, 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0.8761, "after": 0.8686 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1474, "after": 1.1548 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7418, "tackles": 1.9677, "tackles_won": 1.1548, "clearances": 2.0619, "aerial_won": 0.9391, "total_shots": 0.5136, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 85.93, "total_pass": 30.9858, "accurate_pass": 23.806, "duels_won": 4.3059, "total_long_balls": 2.0552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8654, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4033, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4027, "crosses_total": 2.3748, "crosses_accurate": 0.5193, "touches": 48.8641, "possession_lost": 12.3358, "dispossessed": 0.4013, "duels_lost": 3.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.2714, "total_contest": 0.5991, "won_contest": 0.1433, "ball_recovery": 3.3511, "challenges_lost": 0.5399, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.8686, "blocks": 0.3776, "goals": 0.0996, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7418, "tackles": 1.9677, "tackles_won": 1.1548, "clearances": 2.0619, "aerial_won": 0.9391, "total_shots": 0.5136, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 85.93, "total_pass": 30.9858, "accurate_pass": 23.806, "duels_won": 4.3059, "total_long_balls": 2.0552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8654, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4033, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4027, "crosses_total": 2.3748, "crosses_accurate": 0.5193, "touches": 48.8641, "possession_lost": 12.3358, "dispossessed": 0.4013, "duels_lost": 3.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.2714, "total_contest": 0.5991, "won_contest": 0.1433, "ball_recovery": 3.3511, "challenges_lost": 0.5399, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.8686, "blocks": 0.3776, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0013, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "expected_assists": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "big_chances_created": 0.2262, "xgot": 0.0727, "ball_carries": 8.6046, "total_progression": 22.2423, "progressive_carries": 0.6785, "key_pass": 1.3386, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7418, "tackles": 1.9677, "tackles_won": 1.1548, "clearances": 2.0619, "aerial_won": 0.9391, "total_shots": 0.5136, "rating": 6.6906, "minutes": 85.93, "total_pass": 30.9858, "accurate_pass": 23.806, "duels_won": 4.3059, "total_long_balls": 2.0552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8654, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6457, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4033, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4027, "crosses_total": 2.3748, "crosses_accurate": 0.5193, "touches": 48.8641, "possession_lost": 12.3358, "dispossessed": 0.4013, "duels_lost": 3.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.2714, "total_contest": 0.5991, "won_contest": 0.1433, "ball_recovery": 3.3511, "challenges_lost": 0.5399, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.8686, "blocks": 0.3776, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0013, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0442, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "big_chances_created": 0.2262, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 8.6046, "total_progression": 22.2423, "progressive_carries": 0.6785, "key_pass": 1.3386, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.0442 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0903, "after": 0.0775 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"keyPass", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.782, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.283915 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052545 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.047186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.03082 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018728 } ], "others_margin": -0.022588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.742454528808594, "model_output": 6.7425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": -0.0647, "total": 6.7425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050771 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027109 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.017622 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.017079 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015952 } ], "others_margin": -0.064707 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1732, "goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.1801, "shots_on_target": 0.5299, "total_shots": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "key_pass": 0.7894, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 69.87, "total_pass": 14.1471, "accurate_pass": 11.6272, "duels_won": 3.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.3704, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4334, "crosses_total": 1.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.0949, "touches": 30.2415, "possession_lost": 9.6816, "dispossessed": 1.0632, "duels_lost": 6.1391, "aerial_lost": 1.5695, "total_contest": 3.2317, "won_contest": 1.3389, "ball_recovery": 1.7944, "challenges_lost": 0.4144, "fouls": 1.3522, "fouls_drawn": 0.6967, "assists": 0.1546, "assist_rate": 0.1546, "interceptions": 0.786, 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"opponent_faced": "James Hill, Adam Smith", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0062, "skill_edge": 0.0042, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.6251, "defender_skill": 0.6158, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Hill", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Adam Smith", "market_value": 310000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1743 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3031, "after": 1.3112 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1743, "goal_rate": 0.1873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5339, "total_shots": 1.3112, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "key_pass": 0.7894, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 69.87, "total_pass": 14.1471, "accurate_pass": 11.6272, "duels_won": 3.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.3704, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4334, "crosses_total": 1.1476, "crosses_accurate": 0.0949, "touches": 30.2415, "possession_lost": 9.6816, "dispossessed": 1.0632, "duels_lost": 6.1391, "aerial_lost": 1.5695, "total_contest": 3.2317, "won_contest": 1.3389, "ball_recovery": 1.7944, "challenges_lost": 0.4144, "fouls": 1.3483, "fouls_drawn": 0.721, "assist_rate": 0.1521, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7823, "tackles_won": 0.8432, "tackles": 1.2938, "clearances": 0.6893, "blocks": 0.1117, "big_chances_created": 0.1625, "big_chances_missed": 0.4095, "xgot": 0.0412, "offsides": 0.2689, "ball_carries": 7.2989, "total_progression": 52.3108, "progressive_carries": 2.1398, "shots_off_target": 0.7773, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0062, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Hill, Adam Smith", "opponent_faced": "James Hill, Adam Smith", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1497, "goal_rate": 0.1873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5339, "total_shots": 1.3112, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "key_pass": 0.7894, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 69.87, "total_pass": 14.1471, "accurate_pass": 11.6272, "duels_won": 3.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.3704, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4334, "crosses_total": 1.1476, "crosses_accurate": 0.0949, "touches": 30.2415, "possession_lost": 9.6816, "dispossessed": 1.0632, "duels_lost": 6.1391, "aerial_lost": 1.5695, "total_contest": 3.2317, "won_contest": 1.3389, "ball_recovery": 1.7944, "challenges_lost": 0.4144, "fouls": 1.3483, "fouls_drawn": 0.721, "assist_rate": 0.1521, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7823, "tackles_won": 0.8432, "tackles": 1.2938, "clearances": 0.6893, "blocks": 0.1117, "big_chances_created": 0.1625, "big_chances_missed": 0.4095, "xgot": 0.0354, "offsides": 0.2689, "ball_carries": 7.2989, "total_progression": 52.3108, "progressive_carries": 2.1398, "shots_off_target": 0.7773, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0062, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6551, "goals_prevented": -0.1144, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 32.5569, "accurate_pass": 15.3718, "total_long_balls": 21.0768, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2754, "touches": 43.3021, "clearances": 1.9746, "ball_recovery": 10.6301, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.8808, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3262, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3262, "saves_inside_box": 1.5908, "possession_lost": 17.1851, "duels_won": 0.71, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3262, "won_contest": 0.3262, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3838, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8258, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0133 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4092, "goals_prevented": -0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.0174, "accurate_pass": 2.369, "total_long_balls": 3.2482, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6589, "touches": 6.6734, "clearances": 0.3043, "ball_recovery": 1.6382, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.1357, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0503, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0503, "saves_inside_box": 0.2452, "possession_lost": 2.6484, "duels_won": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0503, "won_contest": 0.0503, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0591, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2848, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0055, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4092, "goals_prevented": -0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.0174, "accurate_pass": 2.369, "total_long_balls": 3.2482, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6589, "touches": 6.6734, "clearances": 0.3043, "ball_recovery": 1.6382, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.1357, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0503, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0503, "saves_inside_box": 0.2452, "possession_lost": 2.6484, "duels_won": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0503, "won_contest": 0.0503, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0591, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2848, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0055, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4092, "goals_prevented": -0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.0174, "accurate_pass": 2.369, "total_long_balls": 3.2482, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6589, "touches": 6.6734, "clearances": 0.3043, "ball_recovery": 1.6382, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.1357, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0503, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0503, "saves_inside_box": 0.2452, "possession_lost": 2.6484, "duels_won": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0503, "won_contest": 0.0503, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0591, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2848, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0055, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4092, "goals_prevented": -0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.0174, "accurate_pass": 2.369, "total_long_balls": 3.2482, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6589, "touches": 6.6734, "clearances": 0.3043, "ball_recovery": 1.6382, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.1357, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0503, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0503, "saves_inside_box": 0.2452, "possession_lost": 2.6484, "duels_won": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0503, "won_contest": 0.0503, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0591, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2848, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0055, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5746, "fifa_rank": 7704.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } } ] }, "Daniel Ballard": { "player_id": 958878, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1416, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.1403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 4.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1580, "combined_rank_score": 643.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8034, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio Vera", "ranking": 1575 }, { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.588753327668249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.238, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0073, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, 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2.9136, "aerial_lost": 2.4492, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9289, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6052, "fouls_drawn": 0.2696, "blocks": 0.4104, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9189, "total_progression": 45.0582, "progressive_carries": 1.0811, "key_pass": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.4571 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", 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"contribution": -2.1926 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2834 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0635 } ], "others": -0.065, "total": 1.6636, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.018134 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.205822 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050606 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.038254 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.037438 } ], "others_margin": -0.038359 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3023663759231567, "model_output": 1.3024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8085 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3859 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1396 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0492 } ], "others": 0.0631, "total": 1.3024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.884395 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.517918 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.136491 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.08393 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040471 } ], "others_margin": 0.049634 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.45710286498069763, "model_output": 0.4571, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1583 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.4571, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.235455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158287 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.03886 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.016807 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.016299 } ], "others_margin": -0.012196 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.803422451019287, "model_output": 6.8034, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0228, "total": 6.8034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023959 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023915 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019669 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011621 } ], "others_margin": 0.022862 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5671, "tackles_won": 0.3195, "clearances": 1.6757, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4604, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2716, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6096, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.4604 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4431, "tackles": 0.5671, "tackles_won": 0.3177, "clearances": 1.6757, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4571, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6082, "fouls_drawn": 0.2721, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.4604 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3194, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 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23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.2336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.59, "projection_minutes": 28.75, "minutes_scale": 0.5074, "appearance_probability": 0.238 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2248, "tackles": 0.2878, "tackles_won": 0.1612, "clearances": 0.8503, "aerial_won": 0.6657, "total_shots": 0.2336, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.2336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2248, "tackles": 0.2878, "tackles_won": 0.1612, "clearances": 0.8503, "aerial_won": 0.6657, "total_shots": 0.2336, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0528 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 0.9328, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.910302 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.179087 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.069542 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053597 } ], "others_margin": -0.027308 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2743556797504425, "model_output": 0.2744, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8079 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1751 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0424, "total": 0.2744, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.88325 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.367499 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.098983 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.07842 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.041301 } ], "others_margin": -0.144011 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14044557511806488, "model_output": 0.1404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2525 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.05, "total": 0.1404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.252491 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009826 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007846 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.007387 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.00662 } ], "others_margin": -0.049884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727780818939209, "model_output": 6.7278, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.7278, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016761 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013364 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010986 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008445 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.005277 } ], "others_margin": -0.002089 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the 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"big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2371, "tackles": 0.4568, "tackles_won": 0.2825, "clearances": 0.5568, "aerial_won": 0.1638, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, 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"projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2371, "tackles": 0.4568, "tackles_won": 0.2825, "clearances": 0.5568, "aerial_won": 0.1638, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2137, "fifa_rank": 1168.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 1128532, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040555 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011203 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007878 } ], "others_margin": 0.006977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5997, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.6942, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9768, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.0845, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5845, "fouls_drawn": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4134 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5997, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0528, "shots_on_target": 0.2801, "total_shots": 0.6942, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9744, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0843, "tackles_won": 0.0843, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5849, "fouls_drawn": 0.1614, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4134 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2274, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.069, "assist_rate": 0.069, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 0.9145, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.069, "assist_rate": 0.069, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8593, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0644, "after": 0.0397 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0269 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8593, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8593, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "scorer_weight": 0.0341, "squad_weight_total": 0.9086, "weight_share": 0.0375, "finishing_factor": 0.8593, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1891, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1891, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1584 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0264, "finishing_factor": 0.8593, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.069, "provider_weight": 0.0336, "squad_weight_total": 0.6875, "weight_share": 0.0489, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1329, "runner_up": "Noah Sadiki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.07, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Enzo Le Fée" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dayann Methalie": { "player_id": 1894003, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 186, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, 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"contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 6.7025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083546 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040712 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019386 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010999 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00851 } ], "others_margin": -0.009432 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0405, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3164, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0283, "goal_rate": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.0686, "total_shots": 0.213, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 18.33, "total_pass": 27.0811, "accurate_pass": 22.9191, "duels_won": 3.9932, "total_long_balls": 3.2059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9561, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3701, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2891, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.63, "crosses_total": 1.0405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.7078, "possession_lost": 6.1586, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4747, "aerial_won": 0.9561, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.5624, "tackles_won": 0.4781, "tackles": 0.4781, "clearances": 1.5186, "total_contest": 2.5591, "won_contest": 2.5591, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.4781, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4208, "total_progression": 56.287, "progressive_carries": 0.9561, "shots_off_target": 0.1444 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0405, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.99, "projection_minutes": 18.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2542, "appearance_probability": 0.545 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.545 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0275, "after": 0.0129 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0125 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3208, "fifa_rank": 2240.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "scorer_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 0.9086, "weight_share": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "appearance_weight": 0.545, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1891, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1891, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1584 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "provider_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 0.6875, "weight_share": 0.0227, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.545, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1329, "runner_up": "Noah Sadiki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.07, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Enzo Le Fée" ] } ] } } ] }, "Brian Brobbey": { "player_id": 910048, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 53000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2279, "goal_rate": 0.3191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8131, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.4681, "dispossessed": 0.473, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1781, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.86, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": 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"stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier 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}, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.363964 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.131143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.094881 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.086075 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.085616 } ], "others_margin": -0.265736 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.31005391478538513, "model_output": 0.3101, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2451 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 0.3101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452497 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067411 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047551 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040986 } ], "others_margin": -0.1217 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813060760498047, "model_output": 6.8131, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 6.8131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.110509 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06397 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016202 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013479 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.011665 } ], "others_margin": -0.014869 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2029, "goals": 0.2862, "goal_rate": 0.2862, "shots_on_target": 0.5961, "total_shots": 1.3283, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8131, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 3.3481, "accurate_pass": 2.5297, "duels_won": 1.7408, "total_long_balls": 0.0634, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2926, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5487, "crosses_total": 0.1975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2445, "possession_lost": 3.0882, "dispossessed": 0.473, "duels_lost": 2.1552, "aerial_lost": 1.1387, "total_contest": 0.1679, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.964, "challenges_lost": 0.0634, "fouls": 0.4334, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "assists": 0.0876, "assist_rate": 0.0876, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1213, 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.86 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.86, "projection_minutes": 23.92, "minutes_scale": 1.123, "appearance_probability": 0.366 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2279, "goals": 0.3191, "goal_rate": 0.3191, "shots_on_target": 0.666, "total_shots": 1.4883, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3524, "rating": 6.8131, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 3.76, "accurate_pass": 2.8409, "duels_won": 1.955, "total_long_balls": 0.0712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7392, "crosses_total": 0.2201, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2588, "possession_lost": 3.4681, "dispossessed": 0.473, "duels_lost": 2.4203, "aerial_lost": 1.1387, "total_contest": 0.1886, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0826, "challenges_lost": 0.0634, "fouls": 0.4878, 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1.7392, "crosses_total": 0.2201, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2588, "possession_lost": 3.4681, "dispossessed": 0.473, "duels_lost": 2.4203, "aerial_lost": 1.1387, "total_contest": 0.1886, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0826, "challenges_lost": 0.0634, "fouls": 0.4878, "fouls_drawn": 0.4297, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1352, "tackles": 0.395, "clearances": 0.4522, "blocks": 0.0984, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1886, "xgot": 0.1781, "offsides": 0.1875, "ball_carries": 1.7508, "total_progression": 3.8057, "shots_off_target": 0.8223, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.86, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.366, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2279, "goal_rate": 0.3191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.666, "total_shots": 1.4883, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.3524, "rating": 6.8131, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 3.76, "accurate_pass": 2.8409, "duels_won": 1.955, "total_long_balls": 0.0712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7392, "crosses_total": 0.2201, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2588, "possession_lost": 3.4681, "dispossessed": 0.473, "duels_lost": 2.4203, "aerial_lost": 1.1387, "total_contest": 0.1886, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0826, "challenges_lost": 0.0634, "fouls": 0.4878, "fouls_drawn": 0.4297, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1352, "tackles": 0.395, "clearances": 0.4522, "blocks": 0.0984, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1886, "xgot": 0.1781, 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"shirt_number": 39, "height": 169, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2993, "combined_rank_score": 994.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6837, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Malick Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Alí Gutiérrez", "ranking": 2988 }, { "player_name": "Artem Potapov", "ranking": 2989 }, { "player_name": "Jayce Olivero", "ranking": 2990 }, { "player_name": "Felix Oberwaditzer", "ranking": 2991 }, { "player_name": "Kieran Tierney", "ranking": 2992 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kai Mauro", "ranking": 2994 }, { "player_name": "Rubén García", "ranking": 2995 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Mirković", "ranking": 2996 }, { "player_name": "Alvaro Abarzua", "ranking": 2997 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Salomoni", "ranking": 2998 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3071, "combined_rank_score": 1038.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6968, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 3067 }, { "player_name": "Amine Adli", "ranking": 3068 }, { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 22, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 22, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.718, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 3.333333333333333, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (22 historical appearances) to 18.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, 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"minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0965, "creative_index": 0.2513, "expectedGoals": 0.1228, "expectedAssists": 0.0607, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2167 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", 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"importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.491 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.6843, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048995 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.040975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.032753 } ], "others_margin": 0.020972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6968488693237305, "model_output": 6.6968, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 6.6969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040555 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011203 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007878 } ], "others_margin": 0.006977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5997, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.6942, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9768, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.0845, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, 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"total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9744, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0843, "tackles_won": 0.0843, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5849, "fouls_drawn": 0.1614, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4134 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2274, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.069, "assist_rate": 0.069, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 0.9145, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.069, "assist_rate": 0.069, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5484, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2562, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.6968, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.3781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, 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0.098203 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.040131 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.029557 } ], "others_margin": 0.030507 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02317672036588192, "model_output": 0.0232, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0232, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.443013 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.18707 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.130222 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.09222 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065107 } ], "others_margin": -0.101463 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32449233531951904, "model_output": 0.3245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2625 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 0.3245, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49393 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.074281 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064421 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059697 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055292 } ], "others_margin": 0.017591 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683749198913574, "model_output": 6.6837, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 6.6837, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077512 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018449 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016899 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014991 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01377 } ], "others_margin": -0.005413 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0342, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0679, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.3592, "total_shots": 0.7784, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3356, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 12.345, "accurate_pass": 9.8947, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2345, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1, "crosses_total": 1.5032, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1004, "possession_lost": 6.5969, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.5032, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7997, "won_contest": 0.7997, "ball_recovery": 1.5253, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3245, "tackles_won": 0.6005, "tackles": 0.6005, "clearances": 0.3245, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5517, "xgot": 0.0517, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4028, "total_progression": 56.5584, "progressive_carries": 1.676, "shots_off_target": 0.4192 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0342, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3964, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9456, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3964, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3964, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3964, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1278, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0642, "after": 0.0335 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0227, "after": 0.0119 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3964, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1278, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 0.736, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019386 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010999 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00851 } ], "others_margin": -0.009432 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0405, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3164, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0283, "goal_rate": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.0686, "total_shots": 0.213, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 18.33, "total_pass": 27.0811, "accurate_pass": 22.9191, "duels_won": 3.9932, "total_long_balls": 3.2059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9561, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3701, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2891, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.63, "crosses_total": 1.0405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.7078, "possession_lost": 6.1586, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4747, "aerial_won": 0.9561, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.5624, "tackles_won": 0.4781, "tackles": 0.4781, "clearances": 1.5186, "total_contest": 2.5591, "won_contest": 2.5591, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.4781, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4208, "total_progression": 56.287, "progressive_carries": 0.9561, "shots_off_target": 0.1444 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0405, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.99, "projection_minutes": 18.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2542, "appearance_probability": 0.545 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.1482, xG scale 0.8588, xA scale 0.8588, team xA 0.78 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1482, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9056, "team_expected_assists": 0.7777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7887, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8588, "xa_scale": 0.8588, "opponent_lambda": 1.279, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.545 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0275, "after": 0.0129 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0125 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3208, "fifa_rank": 2240.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "scorer_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 0.9086, "weight_share": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "appearance_weight": 0.545, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1891, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1891, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1584 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "total_shots": 0.2671, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 33.964, "accurate_pass": 28.7442, "duels_won": 5.0081, "total_long_balls": 4.0207, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4125, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9416, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3317, "crosses_total": 1.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.7999, "possession_lost": 7.7239, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1037, "aerial_won": 1.1991, "aerial_lost": 1.0405, "interceptions": 0.7053, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.5996, "clearances": 1.9046, "total_contest": 3.2095, "won_contest": 3.2095, "challenges_lost": 0.9561, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.8152, "total_progression": 70.5929, "progressive_carries": 1.1991, "shots_off_target": 0.1811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0601, "provider_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 0.6875, "weight_share": 0.0227, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.545, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1329, "runner_up": "Noah Sadiki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.07, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Enzo Le Fée" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 0.99, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 461, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.628, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "xg_contribution": 0.3234, "xg_multiplier": 1.1057, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (ST) is slightly favored against Kevin Danso and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.323 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.628, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.2975, "xg_multiplier": 1.0101, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is evenly matched against Kevin Danso and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.297 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ben Gannon-Doak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.628, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0976, "xg_multiplier": 0.8604, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ben Gannon-Doak (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kevin Danso and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.628, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1911, "xg_multiplier": 0.9629, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (ST) is evenly matched against Kevin Danso and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Christie", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0661, "xg_multiplier": 0.8321, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Christie (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyler Adams", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.0268, "xg_multiplier": 0.9714, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyler Adams (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.051, "xg_multiplier": 0.8486, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €33M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "James Hill", "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "xg_contribution": 0.1743, "xg_multiplier": 1.0062, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 }, { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (ST) is evenly matched against James Hill and Adam Smith in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Timur Tuterov", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 280000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "James Hill", "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2007, "xg_multiplier": 0.8879, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Timur Tuterov (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against James Hill and Adam Smith in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "xg_contribution": 0.091, "xg_multiplier": 1.1679, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CDM) is slightly favored against Ryan Christie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.2473, "xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CDM) is slightly favored against Ryan Christie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.247 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.59, "away_midfield_power": 0.666, "home_creative_power": 0.523, "away_creative_power": 0.687, "home_defensive_power": 0.523, "away_defensive_power": 0.672, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.47, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Granit Xhaka", "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Tyler Adams vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.985, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.279, "away_lambda": 0.986, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "CDM vs CDM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ben Gannon-Doak": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Timur Tuterov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Timur Tuterov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Timur Tuterov" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Ben Gannon-Doak", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Ben Gannon-Doak", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "Adam Smith" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Timur Tuterov": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "Adam Smith" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Omar Alderete": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Ben Gannon-Doak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Tyler Adams vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CDM vs CDM.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0339, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0869, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9445, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9184, "home_midfield_factor": 0.985, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6727, "away_avg_quality": 0.5899, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0828, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4435, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3552, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5213, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1379, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0758, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0441, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0025, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1144 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.985, "result": 1.0977 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0977 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2623 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0151, "result": 1.2814 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.144 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9445, "result": 1.0805 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0339, "result": 1.1144 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1144, "result": 1.1144, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1379, "factor": 1.0758, "pre": 1.1144, "result": 1.1989 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1989 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.419 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 1.279 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.279, "result": 1.279, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.279, "result": 1.279, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.279 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.279 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.279, "result": 1.279, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.279 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7643, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9357 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.016, "result": 0.9507 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9507 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9507 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0138, "result": 0.9638 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 0.8664 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9184, "result": 0.7957 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0869, "result": 0.8825 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8825, "result": 0.8825, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1379, "factor": 0.9559, "pre": 0.8825, "result": 0.8436 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8436 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2118, "result": 1.0558 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 0.9855 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9855, "result": 0.986, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 0.986, "result": 0.986, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.986 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.986 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.986, "result": 0.986, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.986 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2118, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Sunderland", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.279, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.986, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.279, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9855, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.279, "final_away_lambda": 0.986 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0151, "attack_index": 0.93, "defense_concede_index": 1.119, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.65, "team_ppg": 0.92, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0138, "attack_index": 0.893, "defense_concede_index": 1.156, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.71, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.92 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Bournemouth vs Sunderland. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.279, Away 0.986). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.279, Away 0.986 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Sunderland", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.279, "away_lambda": 0.986, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.279, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.986 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:34:08Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }