{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Coventry", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261019", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1335, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1335, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0631, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Tottenham", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2359, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1335 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1165 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1113 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.096 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0781 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0781, "0-1": 0.0631, "0-2": 0.0263, "0-3": 0.0072, "0-4": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1335, "1-1": 0.1113, "1-2": 0.0456, "1-3": 0.0125, "1-4": 0.0026, "2-0": 0.1165, "2-1": 0.096, "2-2": 0.0395, "2-3": 0.0109, "2-4": 0.0022, "3-0": 0.0674, "3-1": 0.0555, "3-2": 0.0229, "3-3": 0.0063, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0292, "4-1": 0.0241, "4-2": 0.0099, "4-3": 0.0027, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0101, "5-1": 0.0084, "5-2": 0.0034, "5-3": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0029, "6-1": 0.0024, "6-2": 0.001, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5895, "draw": 0.2359, "away_win": 0.1747 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4712, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5288, "btts_yes": 0.463, "btts_no": 0.537, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4387, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1764 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.85, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.7, "GK": 7.13 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tottenham vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Tottenham 5W-3D-2L vs Coventry over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dominic Solanke", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Sandro Tonali vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.735, "away_lambda": 0.824, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1335, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5895, "draw": 0.2359, "away_win": 0.1747 }, "favorite": "Tottenham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5895, "fair_spread": 0.911, "fair_total": 2.559, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.735, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 0.824, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4712, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.463, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4387, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1764, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Solanke (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.479, "probability": 0.3806, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.1672, "probability": 0.154, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sávio (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2427, "probability": 0.2155, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jay DaSilva (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.0837, "probability": 0.0803, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.559, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 752, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.6, "possession_home_pct": 52.7, "possession_away_pct": 47.3, "notes": "Tottenham projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Tottenham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5895, "script": "Tottenham is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.91 goals and fair total 2.56.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Tottenham lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Tottenham chance creation leans on Dominic Solanke against Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Tottenham projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Solanke; bench watchlist: Xavi Simons, Mykhailo Mudryk.", "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jack Rudoni, Sidiki Cherif, Loum Tchaouna.", "Assist usage should flow through Sávio; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Tottenham tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.28 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Tottenham.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tottenham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Antonín Kinský": { "player_id": 1031251, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 190, "market_value": 18900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 40, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9283, "shots_faced": 7.8, "expected_saves": 1.91, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3895 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.8551 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6861 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0149 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.76 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2750, "combined_rank_score": 952.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 502.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8571, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1402.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.987, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 }, { "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking": 2748 }, { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 }, { "player_name": "Ulugbek Abdullaev", "ranking": 2754 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Motpan", "ranking": 2755 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 13, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 13, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0096, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Tottenham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 13 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Tottenham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.938, "goals_prevented": -0.0281, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.0641, "accurate_pass": 21.0212, "total_long_balls": 13.926, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0821, "touches": 39.6203, "clearances": 1.3523, "ball_recovery": 6.1925, "high_claims": 0.6909, "punches": 0.9274, "aerial_won": 0.2847, "sweeper_actions": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0096, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9662, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3623, "accurate_pass": 21.223, "total_long_balls": 14.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1213, "touches": 40.0007, "clearances": 1.3653, "ball_recovery": 6.2519, "high_claims": 0.6975, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0.2874, "sweeper_actions": 0.8329, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8329, "saves_inside_box": 1.8842, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0.422, "duels_lost": 0.1798, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1346, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7988 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0096, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "saves": 2.955, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3623, "accurate_pass": 21.223, "total_long_balls": 14.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1213, "touches": 40.0007, "clearances": 1.3653, "ball_recovery": 6.2519, "high_claims": 0.6975, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0.2874, "sweeper_actions": 0.8329, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8329, "saves_inside_box": 1.8842, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0.422, "duels_lost": 0.1798, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1314, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7988 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0241, "history_matches": 13, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9662, "after": 2.955 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.955, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3623, "accurate_pass": 21.223, "total_long_balls": 14.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1213, "touches": 40.0007, "clearances": 1.3653, "ball_recovery": 6.2519, "high_claims": 0.6975, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0.2874, "sweeper_actions": 0.8329, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8329, "saves_inside_box": 1.8842, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0.422, "duels_lost": 0.1798, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1314, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7988 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.955, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3623, "accurate_pass": 21.223, "total_long_balls": 14.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1213, "touches": 40.0007, "clearances": 1.3653, "ball_recovery": 6.2519, "high_claims": 0.6975, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0.2874, "sweeper_actions": 0.8329, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8329, "saves_inside_box": 1.8842, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0.422, "duels_lost": 0.1798, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1314, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7988, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9283, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.15, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.9283 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.955, "goals_prevented": -0.0284, "rating": 6.987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3623, "accurate_pass": 21.223, "total_long_balls": 14.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1213, "touches": 40.0007, "clearances": 1.3653, "ball_recovery": 6.2519, "high_claims": 0.6975, "punches": 0.9363, "aerial_won": 0.2874, "sweeper_actions": 0.8329, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8329, "saves_inside_box": 1.8842, "possession_lost": 10.2293, "duels_won": 0.422, "duels_lost": 0.1798, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1314, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7988, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9283, "shots_faced": 7.8, "expected_saves": 1.91, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0701, "total": 6.7494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.044811 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020809 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01681 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01303 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009258 } ], "others_margin": -0.070219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3349, "goals": 0.3403, "goal_rate": 0.3403, "shots_on_target": 0.8152, "total_shots": 2.1674, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6599, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 77.52, "total_pass": 13.4572, "accurate_pass": 10.8322, "duels_won": 3.9733, "total_long_balls": 0.1287, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0487, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7561, "crosses_total": 0.0632, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7213, "possession_lost": 7.4154, "dispossessed": 1.3571, "duels_lost": 6.0188, "aerial_lost": 2.6336, "total_contest": 1.2408, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.8992, "challenges_lost": 0.2273, "fouls": 1.2027, "fouls_drawn": 0.8276, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0542, "tackles_won": 0.6993, "tackles": 1.1748, "clearances": 0.7424, "blocks": 0.3269, "big_chances_created": 0.0883, "big_chances_missed": 0.5209, "xgot": 0.3535, "offsides": 0.1756, "ball_carries": 7.4425, "total_progression": 20.8518, "progressive_carries": 1.3487, "shots_off_target": 1.3522 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0033)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3349, "goals": 0.3392, "goal_rate": 0.3392, "shots_on_target": 0.8191, "total_shots": 2.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6599, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 77.52, "total_pass": 13.4572, "accurate_pass": 10.8322, "duels_won": 3.9733, "total_long_balls": 0.1287, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0487, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7561, "crosses_total": 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"totalShots", "before": 2.1674, "after": 2.1734 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3349, "goals": 0.3392, "goal_rate": 0.3392, "shots_on_target": 0.8191, "total_shots": 2.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6599, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 77.52, "total_pass": 13.4572, "accurate_pass": 10.8322, "duels_won": 3.9733, "total_long_balls": 0.1287, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0487, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7561, "crosses_total": 0.063, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7213, "possession_lost": 7.4154, "dispossessed": 1.3571, "duels_lost": 6.0188, "aerial_lost": 2.6336, "total_contest": 1.2408, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.8992, "challenges_lost": 0.2273, "fouls": 1.1987, "fouls_drawn": 0.8392, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.054, "tackles_won": 0.697, "tackles": 1.1748, "clearances": 0.7424, 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"total_contest": 1.2408, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.8992, "challenges_lost": 0.2273, "fouls": 1.1987, "fouls_drawn": 0.8392, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.054, "tackles_won": 0.697, "tackles": 1.1748, "clearances": 0.7424, "blocks": 0.3269, "big_chances_created": 0.0883, "big_chances_missed": 0.5499, "xgot": 0.3732, "offsides": 0.1822, "ball_carries": 7.4425, "total_progression": 20.8518, "progressive_carries": 1.3487, "shots_off_target": 1.4275, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0557, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0557, "skill_edge": 0.0539, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.5744, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 }, { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "market_value": 2800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4465 } ], "xg_override": 0.3536 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1734, "after": 2.2945 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3522, "after": 1.4275 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8191, "after": 0.8647 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5209, "after": 0.5499 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3535, "after": 0.3732 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3392, "after": 0.3581 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3349, "after": 0.3536 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3536, "goal_rate": 0.3581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8647, "total_shots": 2.2945, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6599, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 77.52, "total_pass": 13.4572, "accurate_pass": 10.8322, "duels_won": 3.9733, "total_long_balls": 0.1287, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0487, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7561, "crosses_total": 0.063, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7213, "possession_lost": 7.4154, "dispossessed": 1.3571, "duels_lost": 6.0188, "aerial_lost": 2.6336, "total_contest": 1.2408, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.8992, 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{ "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.479, "goal_rate": 0.3581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8647, "total_shots": 2.2945, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "key_pass": 0.6599, "rating": 6.7494, "minutes": 77.52, "total_pass": 13.4572, "accurate_pass": 10.8322, "duels_won": 3.9733, "total_long_balls": 0.1287, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0487, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7561, "crosses_total": 0.063, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7213, "possession_lost": 7.4154, "dispossessed": 1.3571, "duels_lost": 6.0188, "aerial_lost": 2.6336, "total_contest": 1.2408, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.8992, "challenges_lost": 0.2273, "fouls": 1.1987, "fouls_drawn": 0.8392, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3536, "after": 0.479 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0502, "after": 0.0691 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0468, "total": 7.015, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039444 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03853 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035037 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.027736 } ], "others_margin": 0.046716 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1339, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.5469, "total_shots": 1.9408, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "key_pass": 2.0035, "rating": 7.015, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 33.0345, "accurate_pass": 27.1603, "duels_won": 5.0168, "total_long_balls": 0.8009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3113, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.802, "crosses_total": 5.2667, "crosses_accurate": 1.0577, "touches": 58.2828, "possession_lost": 19.2216, "dispossessed": 1.3166, "duels_lost": 6.4261, "aerial_lost": 0.1828, "total_contest": 7.1924, "won_contest": 3.3704, "ball_recovery": 3.3946, "challenges_lost": 0.3917, "fouls": 1.0004, "fouls_drawn": 1.3172, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "interceptions": 0.4296, 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0.5947, "total_shots": 2.1104, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "key_pass": 2.0035, "rating": 7.015, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 33.0345, "accurate_pass": 27.1603, "duels_won": 5.0168, "total_long_balls": 0.8009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3113, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.802, "crosses_total": 5.2667, "crosses_accurate": 1.0577, "touches": 58.2828, "possession_lost": 19.2216, "dispossessed": 1.3166, "duels_lost": 6.4261, "aerial_lost": 0.1828, "total_contest": 7.1924, "won_contest": 3.3704, "ball_recovery": 3.3946, "challenges_lost": 0.3917, "fouls": 1.0004, "fouls_drawn": 1.3172, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "interceptions": 0.4296, "tackles_won": 0.0811, "tackles": 0.3293, "clearances": 0.1084, "blocks": 0.1321, "big_chances_created": 0.4505, "big_chances_missed": 0.2911, "xgot": 0.1639, "offsides": 0.0783, "ball_carries": 26.1381, "total_progression": 163.4318, "progressive_carries": 7.5479, "shots_off_target": 1.5156, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0874, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0874, "skill_edge": 0.1154, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.8309, "defender_skill": 0.5744, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 }, { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "market_value": 2800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4465 } ], "xg_override": 0.1456 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9408, "after": 2.1104 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3938, "after": 1.5156 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5469, "after": 0.5947 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2677, "after": 0.2911 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1507, "after": 0.1639 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1494, "after": 0.1625 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1339, "after": 0.1456 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1456, "goal_rate": 0.1625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5947, "total_shots": 2.1104, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "key_pass": 2.0035, "rating": 7.015, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 33.0345, "accurate_pass": 27.1603, "duels_won": 5.0168, "total_long_balls": 0.8009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3113, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.802, "crosses_total": 5.2667, "crosses_accurate": 1.0577, "touches": 58.2828, "possession_lost": 19.2216, "dispossessed": 1.3166, "duels_lost": 6.4261, "aerial_lost": 0.1828, "total_contest": 7.1924, "won_contest": 3.3704, "ball_recovery": 3.3946, "challenges_lost": 0.3917, "fouls": 1.0004, "fouls_drawn": 1.3172, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4296, "tackles_won": 0.0811, "tackles": 0.3293, "clearances": 0.1084, "blocks": 0.1321, "big_chances_created": 0.4505, "big_chances_missed": 0.2911, "xgot": 0.1639, "offsides": 0.0783, "ball_carries": 26.1381, "total_progression": 163.4318, "progressive_carries": 7.5479, "shots_off_target": 1.5156, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0874, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1973, "goal_rate": 0.1625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5947, "total_shots": 2.1104, "expected_assists": 0.2427, "key_pass": 2.0035, "rating": 7.015, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 33.0345, "accurate_pass": 27.1603, "duels_won": 5.0168, "total_long_balls": 0.8009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3113, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.802, "crosses_total": 5.2667, "crosses_accurate": 1.0577, "touches": 58.2828, "possession_lost": 19.2216, "dispossessed": 1.3166, "duels_lost": 6.4261, "aerial_lost": 0.1828, "total_contest": 7.1924, "won_contest": 3.3704, "ball_recovery": 3.3946, "challenges_lost": 0.3917, "fouls": 1.0004, "fouls_drawn": 1.3172, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4296, "tackles_won": 0.0811, "tackles": 0.3293, "clearances": 0.1084, "blocks": 0.1321, "big_chances_created": 0.4505, "big_chances_missed": 0.2911, "xgot": 0.2221, "offsides": 0.0783, "ball_carries": 26.1381, "total_progression": 163.4318, "progressive_carries": 7.5479, "shots_off_target": 1.5156, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0874, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Ethan Pinnock", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0864, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1456, "after": 0.1973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1764, "after": 0.2427 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3449, "expected_assists": 0.1396, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.0953, "shots_on_target": 0.3734, "total_shots": 1.136, "rating": 7.2037, "minutes": 84.78, "total_pass": 57.8853, "accurate_pass": 50.4239, "duels_won": 3.8004, "total_long_balls": 3.7494, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6667, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7632, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6542, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.1221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.7697, "crosses_total": 1.7914, "crosses_accurate": 0.6305, "touches": 72.4084, "possession_lost": 11.1158, "dispossessed": 0.8373, "duels_lost": 2.1369, "aerial_won": 0.4991, "aerial_lost": 0.1336, "interceptions": 0.7369, "tackles_won": 0.8242, "tackles": 1.7894, "clearances": 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whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6416, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.083, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2857, "total_shots": 0.8228, "rating": 6.7519, "minutes": 65.25, "total_pass": 18.5324, "accurate_pass": 15.5982, "duels_won": 2.4714, "total_long_balls": 0.6719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2674, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7822, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2871, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8162, "crosses_total": 1.1457, "crosses_accurate": 0.04, "touches": 29.7908, "possession_lost": 7.8351, "dispossessed": 0.7228, "duels_lost": 4.4827, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.4614, "interceptions": 0.5568, "tackles_won": 0.3966, "tackles": 1.2046, "clearances": 0.4949, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.5965, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 1.7513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2394, "blocks": 0.0903, 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"name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3141 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1239 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.118 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0601 } ], "others": -0.1231, "total": 0.758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.258812 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.128141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124415 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.11805 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.066004 } ], "others_margin": -0.150566 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3587719798088074, "model_output": 0.3588, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 0.3588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.123962 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050079 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025267 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.010693 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.008124 } ], "others_margin": 0.002239 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.623837471008301, "model_output": 6.6238, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.048, "total": 6.6238, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044121 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020838 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018384 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015732 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013916 } ], "others_margin": -0.047876 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.5101, "total_contest": 0.5943, "won_contest": 0.1521, "ball_recovery": 3.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.5887, "fouls": 0.9253, "fouls_drawn": 1.3631, "blocks": 0.2141, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0377, "big_chances_created": 0.0198, "xgot": 0.0209, "ball_carries": 11.7345, "total_progression": 70.1247, "progressive_carries": 1.3095, "key_pass": 0.3307, "shots_off_target": 0.324, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jay DaSilva", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jay DaSilva", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8486, "tackles": 1.7297, "tackles_won": 1.0531, "clearances": 1.8672, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "total_shots": 0.3617, "rating": 6.6238, "minutes": 79.38, "total_pass": 29.8062, "accurate_pass": 25.9733, "duels_won": 3.9824, "total_long_balls": 0.9092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8599, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1136, "crosses_total": 1.1993, "crosses_accurate": 0.1347, "touches": 47.2219, "possession_lost": 8.7339, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.5101, "total_contest": 0.5943, "won_contest": 0.1521, "ball_recovery": 3.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.5887, "fouls": 0.9253, "fouls_drawn": 1.3631, "blocks": 0.2141, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 0.5048, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011971 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011796 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008744 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007926 } ], "others_margin": 0.010278 } }, { "target": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8679, "tackles": 1.2519, "tackles_won": 0.6982, "clearances": 3.5548, "aerial_won": 1.8545, "total_shots": 0.5101, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 87.86, "total_pass": 63.2111, "accurate_pass": 59.6798, "duels_won": 4.504, "total_long_balls": 2.3599, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3252, "total_own_half_passes": 42.103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.5425, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1374, "crosses_total": 0.0415, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.8184, "possession_lost": 4.3115, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.8, "aerial_lost": 1.2908, "total_contest": 0.1849, "won_contest": 0.1812, "ball_recovery": 3.9677, "challenges_lost": 0.3662, "fouls": 0.8744, "fouls_drawn": 1.3496, "blocks": 0.6068, "goals": 0.0164, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": 0.017, "total": 0.5864, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036166 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.030108 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.025499 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024872 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.021788 } ], "others_margin": 0.017039 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.138792514801025, "model_output": 7.1388, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } 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0.1785285472869873, "model_output": 0.1785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0749 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0536 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.1785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.261145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.240152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.135987 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122019 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.060195 } ], "others_margin": -0.025858 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6793290972709656, "model_output": 0.6793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2552 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.065, "total": 0.6793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.25522 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118927 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056729 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.014021 } ], "others_margin": -0.064932 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785346984863281, "model_output": 6.7853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 6.7853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036524 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010561 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009333 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008497 } ], "others_margin": -0.0301 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "assists": 0.0804, "assist_rate": 0.0804, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0561, "goal_rate": 0.0561, "shots_on_target": 0.1804, "total_shots": 0.6865, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4891, "tackles_won": 0.7432, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.7159, "fouls_drawn": 0.7856, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "assists": 0.0795, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6791, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9134, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7856, "after": 0.8004 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6865, "after": 0.6791 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "assists": 0.0795, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "assists": 0.0795, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0604, "after": 0.0818 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0524, "after": 0.0721 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3103, "fifa_rank": 1440.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, "blocks": 0.1013, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 10.9243, "total_progression": 39.9716, "progressive_carries": 0.8355, "shots_off_target": 0.5061, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0785, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "scorer_weight": 0.0782, "squad_weight_total": 1.8026, "weight_share": 0.0434, "finishing_factor": 0.9556, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Solanke", "weight": 0.4843, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4843, "runner_up": "Sávio", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2143 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6359, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "assist_rate": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.6845, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 82.21, "total_pass": 32.346, "accurate_pass": 27.4889, "duels_won": 3.0822, "total_long_balls": 2.2962, "accurate_long_balls": 0.998, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.424, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0649, "crosses_total": 1.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.1348, "touches": 47.885, "possession_lost": 9.3293, "dispossessed": 0.8028, "duels_lost": 2.7695, "aerial_won": 0.6458, "aerial_lost": 0.3514, "interceptions": 1.4846, "tackles_won": 0.741, "tackles": 1.1153, "clearances": 1.6968, "total_contest": 1.0455, "won_contest": 0.5355, "challenges_lost": 0.3895, "fouls": 0.714, "fouls_drawn": 0.8004, 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"blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Solanke" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Guglielmo Vicario": { "player_id": 553606, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 17300000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0039, "rating": 6.972, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.7414 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025104, "match_date": "2026-01-24", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1088 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025089, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.5408 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 867, "combined_rank_score": 409.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 681.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.972, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Guglielmo Vicario", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jong-hyun Ko", "ranking": 862 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seok Son", "ranking": 863 }, { "player_name": "Mukhsinjon Ubaydullaev", "ranking": 864 }, { "player_name": "Nurmukhammad Abduganiev", "ranking": 865 }, { "player_name": "Michail Antonio", "ranking": 866 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking": 868 }, { "player_name": "Jang Min-Jun", "ranking": 869 }, { "player_name": "Josip Stanišić", "ranking": 870 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Sobirkhuzhaev", "ranking": 871 }, { "player_name": "Sung-joon Kim", "ranking": 872 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", 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"trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.1998, "save_contribution": 2.0349, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8919, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 16.8384, "passValueNormalized": 0.0601, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.7918 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7220773696899414, "model_output": 2.7221, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2271 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 2.7221, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08036 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006848 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.00596 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.00553 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.005176 } ], "others_margin": 0.005094 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.022157587110996246, "model_output": 0.0222, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0377, "total": 0.0222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.018981 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.017226 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014981 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01011 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.009513 } ], "others_margin": 0.037641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.972041606903076, "model_output": 6.972, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 6.972, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028821 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.01374 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.604)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7332, "goals_prevented": 0.0222, "rating": 6.972, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 32.8801, "accurate_pass": 20.3198, "total_long_balls": 17.4478, "accurate_long_balls": 5.2211, "touches": 41.5353, "clearances": 1.1064, "ball_recovery": 7.5849, "high_claims": 0.832, "punches": 0.4039, "aerial_won": 0.1763, "sweeper_actions": 1.3688, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3688, "saves_inside_box": 1.9751, "possession_lost": 12.7143, "duels_won": 0.2968, "duels_lost": 0.0276, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0622, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9074 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17300000, "quality_factor": 0.6037, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.14)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4844, "goals_prevented": 0.0039, "rating": 6.972, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.05, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1772, "appearance_probability": 0.139 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4844, "goals_prevented": 0.0039, "rating": 6.972, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4844, "goals_prevented": 0.0039, "rating": 6.972, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.139, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1821, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": 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"fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8201, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedro Porro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jeremías Ledesma", "ranking": 216 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Neves", "ranking": 217 }, { "player_name": "Fagner", "ranking": 218 }, { "player_name": "Javohir Ilyosov", "ranking": 219 }, { "player_name": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "ranking": 220 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Garro", "ranking": 222 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 223 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 }, { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 226 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": 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"margin": -0.410484 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.067258 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.044435 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.036972 } ], "others_margin": -0.317806 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47018736600875854, "model_output": 0.4702, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2753 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.4702, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.296965 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.275258 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031775 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.021544 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017463 } ], "others_margin": -0.010301 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.820120811462402, "model_output": 6.8201, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 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"margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.104915 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086955 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027965 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.02471 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023679 } ], "others_margin": 0.05901 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1273, "expected_assists": 0.1532, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023973, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0727, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024012, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0265, "total": 6.802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013803 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.007526 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.005563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.005486 } ], "others_margin": 0.026596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8816, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2437, "total_shots": 0.9392, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, "total_contest": 1.3411, "won_contest": 0.8439, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 5.8059, "total_progression": 18.0009, "progressive_carries": 1.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.6955 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.39, "projection_minutes": 25.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9227, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0668, "after": 0.051 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0905, "after": 0.0701 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 654, "fifa_rank": 513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "scorer_weight": 0.0555, "squad_weight_total": 1.8026, "weight_share": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Solanke", "weight": 0.4843, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4843, "runner_up": "Sávio", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2143 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "provider_weight": 0.0792, "squad_weight_total": 1.0618, "weight_share": 0.0746, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sávio", "weight": 0.1942, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1942, "runner_up": "Sandro Tonali", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1795, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Solanke" ] } ] } } ] }, "Omar Marmoush": { "player_id": 873554, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 183, "market_value": 55000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.7204, "dispossessed": 0.2782, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.119, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.036, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1658, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1686, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2954, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023993, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1002, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 619, "combined_rank_score": 319.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 382.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6375, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 }, { "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking": 616 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-yong Lee", "ranking": 622 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Alarcón", "ranking": 623 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Saitov", "ranking": 624 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.88605686531093, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.367, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0162, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Tottenham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (26 historical appearances) to 26.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.2558, "total_shots": 0.6912, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 2.4297, "accurate_pass": 2.4095, "duels_won": 1.7655, "total_long_balls": 0.028, "accurate_long_balls": 0.028, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4305, "crosses_total": 0.1672, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9068, "possession_lost": 1.861, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 1.407, "aerial_lost": 0.2435, "total_contest": 0.9316, "won_contest": 0.288, "ball_recovery": 0.6368, "challenges_lost": 0.1744, "fouls": 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"margin": -0.612824 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.17215 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.05843 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.045561 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035043 } ], "others_margin": -0.196489 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08333432674407959, "model_output": 0.0833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0833, "log_link": true, 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"base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.0324, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.315765 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07479 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.060793 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.054222 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.053204 } ], "others_margin": -0.12634 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.345800518989563, "model_output": 0.3458, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2477 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 0.3458, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.458687 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059824 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04545 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033543 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031861 } ], "others_margin": -0.037066 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637548923492432, "model_output": 6.6375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 6.6375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.042074 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012837 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009564 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009139 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006243 } ], "others_margin": -0.049596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0162, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.2599, "total_shots": 0.7024, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3514, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 2.4691, "accurate_pass": 2.4485, "duels_won": 1.7941, "total_long_balls": 0.0285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0285, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4537, "crosses_total": 0.1699, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0349, "possession_lost": 1.8911, "dispossessed": 0.2782, "duels_lost": 1.4298, "aerial_lost": 0.2474, "total_contest": 0.9467, "won_contest": 0.2927, "ball_recovery": 0.6471, "challenges_lost": 0.1772, "fouls": 0.0728, "fouls_drawn": 0.7389, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0285, "tackles_won": 0.2115, "tackles": 0.6399, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0827, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 2.9452, "total_progression": 8.8154, "progressive_carries": 0.3271, "shots_off_target": 0.4425 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0162, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0070)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.2595, "total_shots": 0.7018, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3514, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 2.4691, "accurate_pass": 2.4485, "duels_won": 1.7941, "total_long_balls": 0.0285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0285, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4537, "crosses_total": 0.1687, 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"shots_off_target": 0.6365, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.89, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.4385, "appearance_probability": 0.367 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.121, "goal_rate": 0.121, "shots_on_target": 0.3733, "total_shots": 1.0098, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.5055, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.5519, "accurate_pass": 3.5222, "duels_won": 2.5809, "total_long_balls": 0.041, "accurate_long_balls": 0.041, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0912, "crosses_total": 0.2427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5584, "possession_lost": 2.7204, "dispossessed": 0.2782, "duels_lost": 2.0568, "aerial_lost": 0.2474, "total_contest": 1.3619, "won_contest": 0.4211, "ball_recovery": 0.9309, "challenges_lost": 0.1772, "fouls": 0.1102, "fouls_drawn": 1.0576, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.9205, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1767, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.119, "offsides": 0.112, "ball_carries": 4.2367, "total_progression": 12.6812, "progressive_carries": 0.4705, "shots_off_target": 0.6365, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3733, "total_shots": 1.0098, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.5055, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.5519, "accurate_pass": 3.5222, "duels_won": 2.5809, "total_long_balls": 0.041, "accurate_long_balls": 0.041, 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"available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.367, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3733, "total_shots": 1.0098, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.5055, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.5519, "accurate_pass": 3.5222, "duels_won": 2.5809, "total_long_balls": 0.041, "accurate_long_balls": 0.041, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0912, "crosses_total": 0.2427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5584, "possession_lost": 2.7204, "dispossessed": 0.2782, "duels_lost": 2.0568, "aerial_lost": 0.2474, "total_contest": 1.3619, "won_contest": 0.4211, "ball_recovery": 0.9309, "challenges_lost": 0.1772, "fouls": 0.1102, "fouls_drawn": 1.0576, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.9205, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1767, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.119, 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"importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.0189, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409016 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.260845 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.215035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.12819 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.12161 } ], "others_margin": -0.089841 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.31252866983413696, "model_output": 0.3125, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2556 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0265 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 0.3125, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477299 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096928 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079878 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.070433 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.069287 } ], "others_margin": -0.167629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.598411560058594, "model_output": 6.5984, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0975, "total": 6.5984, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048114 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.016519 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01433 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012794 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012379 } ], "others_margin": -0.097492 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0894, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.3516, "total_shots": 0.5789, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.3349, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.143, "total_progression": 19.6452, "progressive_carries": 1.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.2273 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0715, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 18.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4297, "appearance_probability": 0.622 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1278, "after": 0.1077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "scorer_weight": 0.1014, "squad_weight_total": 1.8026, "weight_share": 0.0563, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Solanke", "weight": 0.4843, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4843, "runner_up": "Sávio", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2143 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0894, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.3516, "total_shots": 0.5789, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.3349, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.143, "total_progression": 19.6452, "progressive_carries": 1.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.2273 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0715, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 18.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4297, "appearance_probability": 0.622 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1278, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1278, "after": 0.1077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "scorer_weight": 0.1014, "squad_weight_total": 1.8026, "weight_share": 0.0563, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Solanke", "weight": 0.4843, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4843, "runner_up": "Sávio", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2143 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5027, "total_shots": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4788, "rating": 6.5984, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0242, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0198, "squad_weight_total": 1.0618, "weight_share": 0.0186, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sávio", "weight": 0.1942, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1942, "runner_up": "Sandro Tonali", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1795, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Solanke" ] } ] } } ] }, "Xavi Simons": { "player_id": 997183, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14024022, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1227, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove 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"rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0265, "total": 6.802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013803 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.007526 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.005563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.005486 } ], "others_margin": 0.026596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8816, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2437, "total_shots": 0.9392, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, "total_contest": 1.3411, "won_contest": 0.8439, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 5.8059, "total_progression": 18.0009, "progressive_carries": 1.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.6955 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.39, "projection_minutes": 25.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9227, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2805, xG scale 1.3549, xA scale 1.3756, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.735, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2805, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8198, "team_expected_assists": 1.1278, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3549, "xa_scale": 1.3756, "opponent_lambda": 0.824, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0668, "after": 0.051 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0905, "after": 0.0701 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 654, "fifa_rank": 513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "scorer_weight": 0.0555, "squad_weight_total": 1.8026, "weight_share": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Solanke", "weight": 0.4843, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4843, "runner_up": "Sávio", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2143 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8135, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.8666, "rating": 6.802, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6417, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.0882, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "provider_weight": 0.0792, "squad_weight_total": 1.0618, "weight_share": 0.0746, "creation_factor": 1.1302, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sávio", "weight": 0.1942, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1942, "runner_up": "Sandro Tonali", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1795, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Solanke" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.74, "expected_assists": 1.13, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 428, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } }, "Coventry": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Taiwo Awoniyi": { "player_id": 359664, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 183, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1672, "goal_rate": 0.1989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.7246, "dispossessed": 0.4064, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2215, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "assists": 0.0716, "assist_rate": 0.0716, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.1803, "total_shots": 0.6479, "rating": 6.8479, "minutes": 86.95, "total_pass": 42.5791, "accurate_pass": 35.5129, "duels_won": 3.4199, "total_long_balls": 4.8814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8515, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8113, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7015, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.5016, "touches": 52.478, "possession_lost": 9.4632, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8282, "aerial_won": 0.899, "aerial_lost": 0.8215, "interceptions": 0.3507, "tackles_won": 0.7013, "tackles": 1.7587, "clearances": 1.7067, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8263, "fouls": 0.9768, "fouls_drawn": 0.7622, "blocks": 0.4005, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1428, "total_progression": 54.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.125, "shots_off_target": 0.4675 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0579, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.6414, "rating": 6.8479, "minutes": 86.95, "total_pass": 42.5791, "accurate_pass": 35.5129, "duels_won": 3.4199, "total_long_balls": 4.8814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8515, 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"after": 2.539 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9768, "after": 0.9383 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7013, "after": 0.6737 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3507, "after": 0.3369 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7622, "after": 0.7702 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1803, "after": 0.1732 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6479, "after": 0.6414 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0579, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.6414, "rating": 6.8479, "minutes": 86.95, "total_pass": 42.5791, "accurate_pass": 35.5129, "duels_won": 3.4199, "total_long_balls": 4.8814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8515, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8113, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5315, 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0.1293, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8479, "minutes": 86.95, "total_pass": 42.5791, "accurate_pass": 35.5129, "duels_won": 3.4199, "total_long_balls": 4.8814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8515, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8113, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7015, "crosses_total": 2.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.5016, "touches": 52.478, "possession_lost": 9.4632, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8282, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8215, "interceptions": 0.3369, "tackles_won": 0.6737, "tackles": 1.7587, "clearances": 1.7067, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8263, "fouls": 0.9383, "fouls_drawn": 0.7702, "blocks": 0.4005, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1428, "total_progression": 54.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.125, "shots_off_target": 0.3491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7468, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonín Kinský", "opponent_faced": "Antonín Kinský", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Antonín Kinský", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7468, "skill_edge": -0.1243, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.4717, "defender_skill": 0.7479, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Antonín Kinský", "market_value": 18900000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.7479 } ], "xg_override": 0.0325 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6414, "after": 0.479 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1293, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8479, "minutes": 86.95, "total_pass": 42.5791, "accurate_pass": 35.5129, "duels_won": 3.4199, "total_long_balls": 4.8814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8515, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8113, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7015, "crosses_total": 2.539, "crosses_accurate": 0.5016, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1297, "creation_factor": 0.9714 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0325, "after": 0.0257 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0723, "after": 0.0656 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": -0.050408 } ], "others_margin": -0.255592 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5451208353042603, "model_output": 0.5451, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 0.5451, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020909 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019202 }, { "name": 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2.1099, "after": 2.1247 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.242, "after": 0.2325 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2057, "after": 0.1976 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6862, "after": 0.6787 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.332, "after": 0.3385 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.332, "after": 0.3385 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6787, "tackles": 1.5674, "tackles_won": 1.0148, "clearances": 1.8196, "aerial_won": 0.5891, "total_shots": 0.5543, "rating": 6.7778, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 28.6384, "accurate_pass": 24.1725, "duels_won": 2.9366, "total_long_balls": 1.7449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8334, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5225, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6499, "crosses_total": 2.1247, "crosses_accurate": 0.7712, "touches": 42.3345, "possession_lost": 7.7428, 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2.9366, "total_long_balls": 1.7449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8334, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5225, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6499, "crosses_total": 2.1247, "crosses_accurate": 0.7712, "touches": 42.3345, "possession_lost": 7.7428, "dispossessed": 0.5431, "duels_lost": 2.5877, "aerial_lost": 1.0931, "total_contest": 1.4669, "won_contest": 1.1035, "ball_recovery": 2.7637, "challenges_lost": 0.256, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7852, "goals": 0.1976, "goal_rate": 0.1976, "assists": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2325, "expected_goals": 0.0888, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.3385, "big_chances_created": 0.1749, "xgot": 0.0759, "ball_carries": 8.5907, "total_progression": 33.6991, "progressive_carries": 0.5881, "key_pass": 0.946, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "opponent_faced": "Antonín Kinský, Destiny Udogie", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Antonín Kinský, Destiny Udogie", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6787, "tackles": 1.5674, "tackles_won": 1.0148, "clearances": 1.8196, "aerial_won": 0.5891, "total_shots": 0.5543, "rating": 6.7778, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 28.6384, "accurate_pass": 24.1725, "duels_won": 2.9366, "total_long_balls": 1.7449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8334, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5225, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6499, "crosses_total": 2.1247, "crosses_accurate": 0.7712, "touches": 42.3345, "possession_lost": 7.7428, "dispossessed": 0.5431, "duels_lost": 2.5877, "aerial_lost": 1.0931, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6787, "tackles": 1.5674, "tackles_won": 1.0148, "clearances": 1.8196, "aerial_won": 0.5891, "total_shots": 0.5543, "rating": 6.7778, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 28.6384, "accurate_pass": 24.1725, "duels_won": 2.9366, "total_long_balls": 1.7449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8334, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5225, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6499, "crosses_total": 2.1247, "crosses_accurate": 0.7712, "touches": 42.3345, "possession_lost": 7.7428, "dispossessed": 0.5431, "duels_lost": 2.5877, "aerial_lost": 1.0931, "total_contest": 1.4669, "won_contest": 1.1035, "ball_recovery": 2.7637, "challenges_lost": 0.256, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7852, "goal_rate": 0.1976, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2325, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0837, 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{ "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0363 } ], "others": 0.0059, "total": 0.8458, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.273993 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052769 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039392 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.037089 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.036313 } ], "others_margin": 0.005879 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815739631652832, "model_output": 6.8157, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0005, "total": 6.8157, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013135 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.01125 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010135 } ], "others_margin": 0.000475 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1525, "tackles": 1.2791, "tackles_won": 0.7537, "clearances": 6.1399, "aerial_won": 2.9109, "total_shots": 0.8614, "rating": 6.8157, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 32.5861, "accurate_pass": 25.6367, "duels_won": 4.9091, "total_long_balls": 5.919, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3888, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5966, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.04, "crosses_total": 0.128, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0428, "possession_lost": 7.4999, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5405, "aerial_lost": 2.1243, "total_contest": 0.128, "won_contest": 0.128, "ball_recovery": 3.3988, "challenges_lost": 0.8129, "fouls": 0.7314, "fouls_drawn": 1.2065, "blocks": 1.6983, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0809, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1506, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.143, "total_progression": 19.7279, "progressive_carries": 0.128, "key_pass": 0.4101, "shots_off_target": 0.8614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0374)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1094, "tackles": 1.2791, "tackles_won": 0.7449, "clearances": 6.1399, "aerial_won": 2.9109, "total_shots": 0.8491, "rating": 6.8157, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 32.5861, "accurate_pass": 25.6367, "duels_won": 4.9091, "total_long_balls": 5.919, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3888, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5966, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.04, "crosses_total": 0.1427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0428, "possession_lost": 7.4999, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5405, "aerial_lost": 2.1243, "total_contest": 0.128, "won_contest": 0.128, "ball_recovery": 3.3988, "challenges_lost": 0.8129, "fouls": 0.7624, "fouls_drawn": 1.2392, "blocks": 1.6983, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0809, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1506, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.143, "total_progression": 19.7279, "progressive_carries": 0.128, "key_pass": 0.4101, "shots_off_target": 0.8614 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0374, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9874, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1525, "after": 1.1094 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", 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"LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sandro Tonali", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1094, "tackles": 1.2791, "tackles_won": 0.7449, "clearances": 6.1399, "aerial_won": 2.9109, "total_shots": 0.8614, "rating": 6.8157, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 32.5861, "accurate_pass": 25.6367, "duels_won": 4.9091, "total_long_balls": 5.919, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3888, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5966, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.04, "crosses_total": 0.1427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0428, "possession_lost": 7.4999, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1094, "tackles": 1.2791, "tackles_won": 0.7449, "clearances": 6.1399, "aerial_won": 2.9109, "total_shots": 0.8614, "rating": 6.8157, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 32.5861, "accurate_pass": 25.6367, "duels_won": 4.9091, "total_long_balls": 5.919, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3888, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5966, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.04, "crosses_total": 0.1427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0428, "possession_lost": 7.4999, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5405, "aerial_lost": 2.1243, "total_contest": 0.128, "won_contest": 0.128, "ball_recovery": 3.3988, "challenges_lost": 0.8129, "fouls": 0.7624, "fouls_drawn": 1.2392, "blocks": 1.6983, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1506, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.143, "total_progression": 19.7279, "progressive_carries": 0.128, "key_pass": 0.4101, "shots_off_target": 0.8614, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.518, "opponent_faced": "Sandro Tonali", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0809, "after": 0.0639 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.982, "tackles": 1.2497, "tackles_won": 0.7677, "clearances": 6.1856, "aerial_won": 2.755, "total_shots": 0.4476, "rating": 6.6994, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 23.524, "accurate_pass": 18.2586, "duels_won": 3.9853, "total_long_balls": 4.0322, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6293, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1201, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1384, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.2111, "possession_lost": 6.9712, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.8011, "aerial_lost": 2.6962, "total_contest": 0.2165, "won_contest": 0.0908, "ball_recovery": 2.1525, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.1257, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 1.5201, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 5.3457, "total_progression": 11.8443, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3407 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.982, "tackles": 1.2497, "tackles_won": 0.7677, "clearances": 6.1856, "aerial_won": 2.755, "total_shots": 0.4476, "rating": 6.6994, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 23.524, "accurate_pass": 18.2586, "duels_won": 3.9853, "total_long_balls": 4.0322, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6293, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1201, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1384, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.2111, "possession_lost": 6.9712, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.8011, "aerial_lost": 2.6962, "total_contest": 0.2165, "won_contest": 0.0908, "ball_recovery": 2.1525, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.1257, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 1.5201, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 5.3457, "total_progression": 11.8443, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3407 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.982, "tackles": 1.2497, "tackles_won": 0.7677, "clearances": 6.1856, "aerial_won": 2.755, "total_shots": 0.4476, "rating": 6.6994, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 23.524, "accurate_pass": 18.2586, "duels_won": 3.9853, "total_long_balls": 4.0322, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6293, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1201, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1384, "crosses_total": 0.1479, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.2111, "possession_lost": 6.9712, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.8011, "aerial_lost": 2.6962, "total_contest": 0.2165, "won_contest": 0.0908, "ball_recovery": 2.1525, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.1257, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 1.5201, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "shots_on_target": 0.1068, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 5.3457, "total_progression": 11.8443, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3407, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741, "opponent_faced": "Sávio", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sávio", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3516, "combined_rank_score": 1492.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2692.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7898, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aurèle Amenda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robin Zentner", "ranking": 3511 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Diks", "ranking": 3512 }, { "player_name": "Zuriko Davitashvili", "ranking": 3513 }, { "player_name": "Grischa Prömel", "ranking": 3514 }, { "player_name": "Pol Lozano", "ranking": 3515 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Morlanes", "ranking": 3517 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Claude-Maurice", "ranking": 3518 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Cáceres", "ranking": 3519 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Caci", "ranking": 3520 }, { "player_name": "Amar Memić", "ranking": 3521 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.155021941280786, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.229, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0133, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (4 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { 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"progressive_carries": 1.1336, "key_pass": 0.3138, "shots_off_target": 0.2203 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.899, "aerialWon": 3.7427, "totalClearance_p90": 3.899, "totalTackle": 0.2667, "defensive_actions": 1.1611 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.36197707056999207, "model_output": 0.362, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.485 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 0.362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.828598 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.038829 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.027201 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.081865 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.069796 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.042434 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.034052 } ], "others_margin": -0.157969 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.23749731481075287, "model_output": 0.2375, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4734 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0595, "total": 0.2375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.808054 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.092042 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.068623 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.050483 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.037309 } ], "others_margin": -0.223458 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5248310565948486, "model_output": 1.5248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1563 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1735 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0928 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0857 } ], "others": -0.0913, "total": 1.5248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.989317 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.127417 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.10411 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.05608 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05167 } ], "others_margin": -0.058094 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8501548767089844, "model_output": 0.8502, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3552 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.1397, "total": 0.8502, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.889372 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.487108 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069932 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.038649 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03645 } ], "others_margin": -0.152337 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2202734798192978, "model_output": 0.2203, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0665 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.2203, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06645 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023336 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022917 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.015415 } ], "others_margin": -0.002442 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.789759635925293, "model_output": 6.7898, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 6.7898, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.033322 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024921 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010512 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010422 } ], "others_margin": 0.015049 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles": 0.4391, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "clearances": 1.5451, "aerial_won": 0.8615, "total_shots": 0.2232, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9617, "possession_lost": 7.6898, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 3.54, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.2297, "won_contest": 0.2297, "ball_recovery": 2.6326, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.5134, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9039, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.6149, "total_progression": 72.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.1487, "key_pass": 0.318, "shots_off_target": 0.2232 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3491, "tackles": 0.4391, "tackles_won": 0.2291, "clearances": 1.5451, "aerial_won": 0.8615, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9617, "possession_lost": 7.6898, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 3.54, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.2297, "won_contest": 0.2297, "ball_recovery": 2.6326, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.455, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9039, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.6149, "total_progression": 72.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.1487, "key_pass": 0.318, "shots_off_target": 0.2232 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5134, "after": 1.455 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3668, "after": 0.3491 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2407, "after": 0.2291 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.2232, "after": 0.2173 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2745, "tackles": 0.3453, "tackles_won": 0.1802, "clearances": 1.2151, "aerial_won": 0.6775, "total_shots": 0.1755, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.16, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7864, "appearance_probability": 0.229 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2745, "tackles": 0.3453, "tackles_won": 0.1802, "clearances": 1.2151, "aerial_won": 0.6775, "total_shots": 0.1755, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2745, "tackles": 0.3453, "tackles_won": 0.1802, "clearances": 1.2151, "aerial_won": 0.6775, "total_shots": 0.1755, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.229, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2745, "tackles": 0.3453, "tackles_won": 0.1802, "clearances": 1.2151, "aerial_won": 0.6775, "total_shots": 0.1755, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3516, "fifa_rank": 2692.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Liam Kitching": { "player_id": 921006, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 15200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3718, "combined_rank_score": 1691.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3270.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Liam Kitching", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Núñez", "ranking": 3713 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Johansson", "ranking": 3714 }, { "player_name": "Isaac Romero", "ranking": 3715 }, { "player_name": "Roman Yaremchuk", "ranking": 3716 }, { "player_name": "Joe Gelhardt", "ranking": 3717 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andreas Tetteh", "ranking": 3719 }, { "player_name": "Kiril Despodov", "ranking": 3720 }, { "player_name": "Lamare Bogarde", "ranking": 3721 }, { "player_name": "Darius Olaru", "ranking": 3722 }, { "player_name": "Jairo Concha", "ranking": 3723 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.142160785804542, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3246436720820246, 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0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.14, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1571, "appearance_probability": 0.325 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2671, "tackles": 0.4086, "tackles_won": 0.2514, "clearances": 0.4557, "aerial_won": 0.3928, "duels_won": 0.9271, "total_pass": 7.3854, "accurate_pass": 5.814, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14.14, "total_long_balls": 0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2671, "tackles": 0.4086, "tackles_won": 0.2514, "clearances": 0.4557, "aerial_won": 0.3928, "duels_won": 0.9271, "total_pass": 7.3854, "accurate_pass": 5.814, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14.14, "total_long_balls": 0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.325, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036654 } ], "others_margin": 0.179095 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815362453460693, "model_output": 6.8154, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 6.8154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.080998 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024845 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012826 } ], "others_margin": -0.034942 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8668, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assists": 0.0983, "assist_rate": 0.0983, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goals": 0.1213, "goal_rate": 0.1213, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.8291, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 19.33, "total_pass": 20.8043, "accurate_pass": 15.6737, "duels_won": 4.2386, "total_long_balls": 0.7732, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2861, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3559, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3178, "crosses_total": 3.0257, "crosses_accurate": 1.4584, "touches": 37.3389, "possession_lost": 11.9689, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 4.5891, "aerial_won": 1.5309, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.4871, "tackles_won": 0.3591, "tackles": 0.596, "clearances": 0.7714, "total_contest": 1.4686, "won_contest": 0.4537, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.7837, "fouls_drawn": 1.6579, "blocks": 0.3591, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.4588, "ball_carries": 9.2195, "total_progression": 58.3119, "progressive_carries": 2.0002, "shots_off_target": 0.5489 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.3 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 19.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1783, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1051, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1078, "after": 0.0523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3549, "fifa_rank": 2212.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "scorer_weight": 0.0552, "squad_weight_total": 0.8589, "weight_share": 0.0643, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "provider_weight": 0.055, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.242714 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": 0.071452 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040485 } ], "others_margin": 0.049713 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32978999614715576, "model_output": 0.3298, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2375 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 0.3298, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.381238 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.237526 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04822 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031793 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0226 } ], "others_margin": 0.010432 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65358829498291, "model_output": 6.6536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4535, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0413, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1125, "total_shots": 0.3336, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8705, "crosses_total": 1.4357, "crosses_accurate": 0.5123, "touches": 10.3625, "possession_lost": 2.5481, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 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14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6146, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0553, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goal_rate": 0.0562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "total_shots": 0.4503, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 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14 } } ] }, "Sidiki Cherif": { "player_id": 1514916, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 49, "height": 188, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6337, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.9426, "dispossessed": 0.5562, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4218, "total_shots": 1.043, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "key_pass": 0.2861, "rating": 6.6337, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.7159, "accurate_pass": 6.4715, "duels_won": 2.2089, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1112, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.4145, "possession_lost": 5.9426, "dispossessed": 0.5562, "duels_lost": 6.6582, "aerial_lost": 4.923, "total_contest": 0.529, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2446, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.529, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6222, "xgot": 0.2291, "offsides": 1.0291, "ball_carries": 3.0179, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 1.2446, "shots_off_target": 0.6212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4218, "total_shots": 1.043, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0.2861, "rating": 6.6337, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.7159, "accurate_pass": 6.4715, "duels_won": 2.2089, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1112, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.4145, "possession_lost": 5.9426, "dispossessed": 0.5562, "duels_lost": 6.6582, "aerial_lost": 4.923, "total_contest": 0.529, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2446, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.529, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6222, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 1.0291, "ball_carries": 3.0179, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 1.2446, "shots_off_target": 0.6212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0184, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1074, "after": 0.0505 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0173, "after": 0.0093 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4218, "total_shots": 1.043, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0.2861, "rating": 6.6337, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.7159, "accurate_pass": 6.4715, "duels_won": 2.2089, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1112, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.4145, "possession_lost": 5.9426, "dispossessed": 0.5562, "duels_lost": 6.6582, "aerial_lost": 4.923, "total_contest": 0.529, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2446, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.529, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6222, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 1.0291, "ball_carries": 3.0179, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 1.2446, "shots_off_target": 0.6212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0184, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4195, "fifa_rank": 4352.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4218, "total_shots": 1.043, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0.2861, "rating": 6.6337, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.7159, "accurate_pass": 6.4715, "duels_won": 2.2089, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1112, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.4145, "possession_lost": 5.9426, "dispossessed": 0.5562, "duels_lost": 6.6582, "aerial_lost": 4.923, "total_contest": 0.529, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2446, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.529, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6222, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry 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"name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009772 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009282 } ], "others_margin": -0.044708 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.2624, "total_shots": 0.6919, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "key_pass": 0.3674, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 24.17, "total_pass": 6.8488, "accurate_pass": 5.3836, "duels_won": 0.7726, "total_long_balls": 0.3699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6418, "crosses_total": 1.2075, "crosses_accurate": 0.2828, "touches": 12.4414, "possession_lost": 4.118, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.7362, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.6772, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 0.7182, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.0394, 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"crosses_accurate": 0.2828, "touches": 12.4414, "possession_lost": 4.118, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.7362, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.6772, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 0.7182, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0015, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0193, "tackles_won": 0.0406, "tackles": 0.1029, "clearances": 0.0658, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.2602, "total_progression": 3.904, "progressive_carries": 0.3446, "shots_off_target": 0.4295 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2686, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.03, "projection_minutes": 24.17, "minutes_scale": 1.0769, "appearance_probability": 0.349 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.349 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0665, "after": 0.0183 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0527, "after": 0.0167 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4005, "fifa_rank": 3276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 0.5255, "weight_share": 0.0254, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.349, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Victor 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"name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04822 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031793 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0226 } ], "others_margin": 0.010432 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65358829498291, "model_output": 6.6536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 6.6536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.0965, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.243171 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.131886 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.090448 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.067878 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.06666 } ], "others_margin": -0.012932 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0875747799873352, "model_output": 0.0876, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0098, "total": 0.0876, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.633517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.332965 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.102897 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.044077 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.039633 } ], "others_margin": 0.119276 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11910044401884079, "model_output": 0.1191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 0.1191, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145843 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.140033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.12081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.118492 } ], "others_margin": 0.118064 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27513566613197327, "model_output": 0.2751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 0.2751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.637964 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.182444 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.131983 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077418 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.041693 } ], "others_margin": 0.035623 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8140181303024292, "model_output": 0.814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4822 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.179, "total": 0.814, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077881 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.067024 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.05993 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036654 } ], "others_margin": 0.179095 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815362453460693, "model_output": 6.8154, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 6.8154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.080998 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024845 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012826 } ], "others_margin": -0.034942 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8668, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assists": 0.0983, "assist_rate": 0.0983, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goals": 0.1213, "goal_rate": 0.1213, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.8291, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 19.33, "total_pass": 20.8043, "accurate_pass": 15.6737, "duels_won": 4.2386, "total_long_balls": 0.7732, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2861, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3559, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3178, "crosses_total": 3.0257, "crosses_accurate": 1.4584, "touches": 37.3389, "possession_lost": 11.9689, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 4.5891, "aerial_won": 1.5309, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.4871, "tackles_won": 0.3591, "tackles": 0.596, "clearances": 0.7714, "total_contest": 1.4686, "won_contest": 0.4537, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.7837, "fouls_drawn": 1.6579, "blocks": 0.3591, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.4588, "ball_carries": 9.2195, "total_progression": 58.3119, "progressive_carries": 2.0002, "shots_off_target": 0.5489 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.3 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 19.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1783, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.5406, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1051, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1078, "after": 0.0523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3549, "fifa_rank": 2212.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "scorer_weight": 0.0552, "squad_weight_total": 0.8589, "weight_share": 0.0643, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.977, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 24.5147, "accurate_pass": 18.4691, "duels_won": 4.9945, "total_long_balls": 0.9111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3371, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8855, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9544, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.629, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5147, "crosses_total": 3.5653, "crosses_accurate": 1.7185, "touches": 43.9982, "possession_lost": 14.1035, "dispossessed": 0.7959, "duels_lost": 5.4076, "aerial_won": 1.8039, "aerial_lost": 1.2375, "interceptions": 0.574, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "tackles": 0.7023, "clearances": 0.909, "total_contest": 1.7305, "won_contest": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.7572, "fouls": 0.9235, "fouls_drawn": 1.9536, "blocks": 0.4231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5146, "xgot": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 10.8638, "total_progression": 68.7117, "progressive_carries": 2.3569, "shots_off_target": 0.6468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0426, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "finishing_factor": 1.2437, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "provider_weight": 0.055, "squad_weight_total": 0.5255, "weight_share": 0.1046, "creation_factor": 1.0507, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Loum Tchaouna": { "player_id": 1004505, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 180, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": 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"margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054181 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016344 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009772 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009282 } ], "others_margin": -0.044708 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.2624, "total_shots": 0.6919, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "key_pass": 0.3674, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 24.17, "total_pass": 6.8488, "accurate_pass": 5.3836, "duels_won": 0.7726, "total_long_balls": 0.3699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6418, "crosses_total": 1.2075, "crosses_accurate": 0.2828, "touches": 12.4414, "possession_lost": 4.118, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.7362, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.6772, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 0.7182, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.0394, "tackles": 0.1029, "clearances": 0.0658, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "offsides": 0.1609, "ball_carries": 2.2602, "total_progression": 3.904, "progressive_carries": 0.3446, "shots_off_target": 0.4295 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "key_pass": 0.3674, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 24.17, "total_pass": 6.8488, "accurate_pass": 5.3836, "duels_won": 0.7726, "total_long_balls": 0.3699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6418, "crosses_total": 1.2079, "crosses_accurate": 0.2828, "touches": 12.4414, "possession_lost": 4.118, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.7362, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.6772, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 0.7182, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0015, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0193, "tackles_won": 0.0406, "tackles": 0.1029, "clearances": 0.0658, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.2602, "total_progression": 3.904, "progressive_carries": 0.3446, "shots_off_target": 0.4295 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2686, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.03, "projection_minutes": 24.17, "minutes_scale": 1.0769, "appearance_probability": 0.349 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 1.0424, xG scale 0.7904, xA scale 0.9073, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.824, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0424, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5903, "team_expected_assists": 0.5356, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7904, "xa_scale": 0.9073, "opponent_lambda": 1.735, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.349 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0665, "after": 0.0183 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0527, "after": 0.0167 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4005, "fifa_rank": 3276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "scorer_weight": 0.0216, "squad_weight_total": 0.8589, "weight_share": 0.0252, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "appearance_weight": 0.349, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0183, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7435, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3956, "rating": 6.646, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.507, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 1.182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 0.5255, "weight_share": 0.0254, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.349, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.82, "expected_assists": 0.54, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 324, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 83000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.482, "xg_contribution": 0.0779, "xg_multiplier": 1.0912, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.518 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (LW) is slightly favored against Bobby Thomas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€83M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Bergvall", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.083, "xg_multiplier": 1.0992, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Bergvall (CAM) is slightly favored against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sávio", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 52000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.831, "defenders": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.1456, "xg_multiplier": 1.0874, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 }, { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sávio (ST) is slightly favored against Bobby Thomas and Ethan Pinnock in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€52M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Solanke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.3536, "xg_multiplier": 1.0557, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Solanke (ST) is evenly matched against Bobby Thomas and Ethan Pinnock in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.354 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohammed Kudus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "xg_contribution": 0.1275, "xg_multiplier": 1.0805, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 }, { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammed Kudus (ST) is slightly favored against Bobby Thomas and Ethan Pinnock in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1053, "xg_multiplier": 0.7502, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brandon Thomas-Asante (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2113, "xg_multiplier": 0.7007, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Taiwo Awoniyi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.211 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1824, "xg_multiplier": 0.7433, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ephron Mason-Clark (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Antonín Kinský" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.62, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "xg_contribution": 0.0325, "xg_multiplier": 0.7468, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonín Kinský", "role": "GK", "market_value": 18900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antonín Kinský in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jay DaSilva", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Antonín Kinský", "Destiny Udogie" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.644, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0721, "xg_multiplier": 0.8115, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonín Kinský", "role": "GK", "market_value": 18900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Destiny Udogie", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jay DaSilva (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonín Kinský and Destiny Udogie in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Milan van Ewijk", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Destiny Udogie" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.777, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0862, "xg_multiplier": 0.8984, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sandro Tonali", "role": "LW", "market_value": 83000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Destiny Udogie", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Milan van Ewijk (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Sandro Tonali and Destiny Udogie in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Conor Gallagher" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "xg_multiplier": 0.9478, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Gallagher", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.586 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CM) is evenly matched against Conor Gallagher in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.81, "away_midfield_power": 0.537, "home_creative_power": 0.734, "away_creative_power": 0.478, "home_defensive_power": 0.639, "away_defensive_power": 0.478, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.601, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Sandro Tonali", "Lucas Bergvall", "Archie Gray" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Sandro Tonali vs Caleb Yirenkyi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.037, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.968 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.735, "away_lambda": 0.824, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Milan van Ewijk", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Bergvall": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sávio": { "opponents": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominic Solanke": { "opponents": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohammed Kudus": { "opponents": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Ethan Pinnock" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Taiwo Awoniyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Taiwo Awoniyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Jay DaSilva" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Destiny Udogie": { "opponents": [ "Jay DaSilva", "Milan van Ewijk" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Conor Gallagher": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Archie Gray": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Sávio", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Bergvall", "Conor Gallagher", "Archie Gray" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Sávio", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Brandon Thomas-Asante": { "opponents": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Taiwo Awoniyi": { "opponents": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Antonín Kinský", "Conor Gallagher", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Antonín Kinský", "Destiny Udogie" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Destiny Udogie" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Sávio", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Stephen Mfuni": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Solanke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Sandro Tonali vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9358, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.143, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9645, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8981, "home_midfield_factor": 1.037, "away_midfield_factor": 0.968, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7838, "away_avg_quality": 0.5532, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2306, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.1961, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.0233, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.4142, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4537, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2495, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1452, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7876, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9532 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.037, "result": 0.9885 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9786 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1254 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9315, "result": 1.0483 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.9721 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9645, "result": 0.9375 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.1175 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1175, "result": 1.1175, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4537, "factor": 1.2495, "pre": 1.1175, "result": 1.3964 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3964 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.616 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.616 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.616, "result": 1.616, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.616, "result": 1.6506, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1184, "pre": 1.6506, "result": 1.846 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.846 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9401, "input_total": 2.559, "result": 1.7355 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.7355, "result": 1.735, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.735 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7368, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9151 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.968, "result": 0.8858 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8947 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8947 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9448, "result": 0.8453 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9358, "result": 0.791 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8981, "result": 0.7104 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.143, "result": 0.8534 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8534, "result": 0.8534, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4537, "factor": 0.8548, "pre": 0.8534, "result": 0.7295 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7295 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1993, "result": 0.9283 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.9283 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9283, "result": 0.928, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.928, "result": 0.9081, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9646, "pre": 0.9081, "result": 0.876 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.876 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9401, "input_total": 2.559, "result": 0.8235 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8235, "result": 0.824, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.824 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1993, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4537, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1184, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9646, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.6506, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.9081, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.846, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.876, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.616, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9283, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.735, "final_away_lambda": 0.824 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9315, "attack_index": 0.78, "defense_concede_index": 1.081, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.15, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.59, "team_ppg": 0.92, "opponent_ppg": 1.17 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9448, "attack_index": 0.855, "defense_concede_index": 1.006, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.26, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.17, "opponent_ppg": 0.92 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Tottenham vs Coventry. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.616, Away 0.928). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.735, Away 0.824 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.735, "away_lambda": 0.824, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.616, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.928 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:32:52Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }