{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261019", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1443, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1268, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1443, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Rayo Vallecano", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3131, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1443 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1404 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1268 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0766 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1404, "0-1": 0.1443, "0-2": 0.0766, "0-3": 0.0268, "0-4": 0.007, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1268, "1-1": 0.1363, "1-2": 0.0707, "1-3": 0.0248, "1-4": 0.0065, "1-5": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0593, "2-1": 0.0623, "2-2": 0.0327, "2-3": 0.0114, "2-4": 0.003, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0183, "3-1": 0.0192, "3-2": 0.0101, "3-3": 0.0035, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0042, "4-1": 0.0044, "4-2": 0.0023, "4-3": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3103, "draw": 0.3131, "away_win": 0.3766 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3163, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6837, "btts_yes": 0.3935, "btts_no": 0.6065, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3969 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 7.05 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Getafe 0W-6D-4L vs Rayo Vallecano over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Sergio Camello", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Pedro Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.05, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 6, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1443, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3103, "draw": 0.3131, "away_win": 0.3766 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3766, "fair_spread": -0.126, "fair_total": 1.974, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.924, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3163, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3935, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3969, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.215, "probability": 0.1935, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.3014, "probability": 0.2602, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1119, "probability": 0.1059, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrià Pedrosa (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1553, "probability": 0.1438, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 1.974, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 694, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3766, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.13 goals and fair total 1.97.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Rayo Vallecano chance creation leans on Sergio Camello against Andrés García, Johan Mojica in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Mauro Arambarri, Ivan Azón.", "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Alemão, Giorgi Tsitaishvili.", "Assist usage should flow through Adrià Pedrosa; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 0.99 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "David Soria": { "player_id": 604258, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 192, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0556, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 38, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7035, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 16.2863, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0214, "shots_faced": 10.0, "expected_saves": 2.45, "high_pressure_saves": 0.84, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 18, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -1.3014 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.2811 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.0228 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.3327 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2135 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0075 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.0556 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2745 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 935, "combined_rank_score": 436.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0473, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 }, { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jasurbek Jaloliddinov", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 46 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0636, "goals_prevented": -0.0557, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2752, "accurate_pass": 14.1704, "total_long_balls": 27.2629, "accurate_long_balls": 11.3313, "touches": 38.3416, "clearances": 1.2004, "ball_recovery": 10.0959, "high_claims": 0.6491, "punches": 0.7049, "aerial_won": 0.1659, "sweeper_actions": 0.7242, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7242, "saves_inside_box": 2.4317, "possession_lost": 16.3189, "duels_won": 0.4449, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2944, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0795, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8473 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": 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"opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 11.3313, "save_contribution": 3.6114, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7835, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 4.8473, "passValueNormalized": 0.1027, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 6.0795 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.063636064529419, "model_output": 3.0636, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": 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0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": 0.0294, "total": -0.0557, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022745 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.017552 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.015854 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.015791 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.015028 } ], "others_margin": 0.029299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.047285556793213, "model_output": 7.0473, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0575, "goals_prevented": -0.0556, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2146, "accurate_pass": 14.1421, "total_long_balls": 27.2084, "accurate_long_balls": 11.3086, "touches": 38.2649, "clearances": 1.198, "ball_recovery": 10.0757, "high_claims": 0.6478, "punches": 0.7035, "aerial_won": 0.1656, "sweeper_actions": 0.7228, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7228, "saves_inside_box": 2.4268, "possession_lost": 16.2863, "duels_won": 0.444, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8376 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0525, "goals_prevented": -0.0556, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2146, "accurate_pass": 14.1421, "total_long_balls": 27.2084, "accurate_long_balls": 11.3086, "touches": 38.2649, "clearances": 1.198, "ball_recovery": 10.0757, "high_claims": 0.6478, "punches": 0.7035, "aerial_won": 0.1656, "sweeper_actions": 0.7228, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7228, "saves_inside_box": 2.4268, "possession_lost": 16.2863, "duels_won": 0.444, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0525, "goals_prevented": -0.0556, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2146, "accurate_pass": 14.1421, "total_long_balls": 27.2084, "accurate_long_balls": 11.3086, "touches": 38.2649, "clearances": 1.198, "ball_recovery": 10.0757, "high_claims": 0.6478, "punches": 0.7035, "aerial_won": 0.1656, "sweeper_actions": 0.7228, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7228, "saves_inside_box": 2.4268, "possession_lost": 16.2863, "duels_won": 0.444, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8376 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0525, "goals_prevented": -0.0556, "rating": 7.0473, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2146, "accurate_pass": 14.1421, "total_long_balls": 27.2084, "accurate_long_balls": 11.3086, "touches": 38.2649, "clearances": 1.198, "ball_recovery": 10.0757, "high_claims": 0.6478, "punches": 0.7035, "aerial_won": 0.1656, "sweeper_actions": 0.7228, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7228, "saves_inside_box": 2.4268, "possession_lost": 16.2863, "duels_won": 0.444, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8376, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0214, "shots_faced": 9.7, "expected_saves": 2.37, "high_pressure_saves": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0214 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0599, "tackles": 1.2723, "tackles_won": 0.8266, "clearances": 4.338, "aerial_won": 1.4119, "total_shots": 0.3033, "rating": 6.6913, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 27.092, "accurate_pass": 22.654, "duels_won": 2.3356, "total_long_balls": 4.5273, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5679, "total_own_half_passes": 15.539, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4499, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.204, "crosses_total": 0.4669, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 37.5027, "possession_lost": 5.6982, "dispossessed": 0.1829, "duels_lost": 2.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.7218, "total_contest": 0.127, "won_contest": 0.1158, "ball_recovery": 4.4442, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.7891, "fouls_drawn": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.3742, "goals": 0.0, 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11.5529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.204, "crosses_total": 0.4649, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 37.5027, "possession_lost": 5.6982, "dispossessed": 0.1829, "duels_lost": 2.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.7218, "total_contest": 0.127, "won_contest": 0.1158, "ball_recovery": 4.4442, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.7997, "fouls_drawn": 0.4116, "blocks": 0.3742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.01, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1129, "total_progression": 21.2537, "progressive_carries": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.1055, "shots_off_target": 0.3033 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9193, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7891, "after": 0.7997 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0599, "after": 1.0669 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4172, "after": 0.4116 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0669, "tackles": 1.2723, "tackles_won": 0.8283, "clearances": 4.338, "aerial_won": 1.4119, "total_shots": 0.3033, "rating": 6.6913, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 27.092, "accurate_pass": 22.654, "duels_won": 2.3356, "total_long_balls": 4.5273, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5679, "total_own_half_passes": 15.539, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4499, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.204, "crosses_total": 0.4649, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 37.5027, "possession_lost": 5.6982, "dispossessed": 0.1829, "duels_lost": 2.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.7218, "total_contest": 0.127, "won_contest": 0.1158, "ball_recovery": 4.4442, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.7997, "fouls_drawn": 0.4116, "blocks": 0.3742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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37.5027, "possession_lost": 5.6982, "dispossessed": 0.1829, "duels_lost": 2.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.7218, "total_contest": 0.127, "won_contest": 0.1158, "ball_recovery": 4.4442, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.7997, "fouls_drawn": 0.4116, "blocks": 0.3742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.01, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1129, "total_progression": 21.2537, "progressive_carries": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.1055, "shots_off_target": 0.3033, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0669, "tackles": 1.2723, "tackles_won": 0.8283, "clearances": 4.338, "aerial_won": 1.4119, "total_shots": 0.3033, "rating": 6.6913, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 27.092, "accurate_pass": 22.654, "duels_won": 2.3356, "total_long_balls": 4.5273, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5679, "total_own_half_passes": 15.539, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4499, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.204, "crosses_total": 0.4649, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 37.5027, "possession_lost": 5.6982, "dispossessed": 0.1829, "duels_lost": 2.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.7218, "total_contest": 0.127, "won_contest": 0.1158, "ball_recovery": 4.4442, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.7997, "fouls_drawn": 0.4116, "blocks": 0.3742, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.01, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.585, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.942, "rating": 6.7134, "minutes": 86.17, "total_pass": 24.3449, "accurate_pass": 19.4532, "duels_won": 3.0491, "total_long_balls": 3.1769, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4253, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4539, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.891, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0085, "crosses_total": 0.2014, "crosses_accurate": 0.1307, "touches": 35.104, "possession_lost": 5.9913, "dispossessed": 0.0486, "duels_lost": 3.1738, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.4066, "interceptions": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8231, "tackles": 1.159, "clearances": 3.116, "total_contest": 0.325, "won_contest": 0.193, "challenges_lost": 1.0314, "fouls": 1.5809, "fouls_drawn": 0.1908, "blocks": 0.7326, "big_chances_created": 0.1522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 6.011, "total_progression": 10.131, "progressive_carries": 0.2246, "shots_off_target": 0.6717, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.294, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Unai López, Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Unai López, Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6918, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assists": 0.0842, "assist_rate": 0.0842, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "shots_on_target": 0.26, "total_shots": 0.9111, "rating": 6.779, "minutes": 85.95, "total_pass": 25.6601, "accurate_pass": 22.0459, "duels_won": 2.2744, "total_long_balls": 2.658, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9359, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6965, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3494, "crosses_total": 1.0836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.3332, "possession_lost": 6.8934, "dispossessed": 1.0021, "duels_lost": 2.9484, "aerial_won": 0.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "interceptions": 0.8633, "tackles_won": 0.1395, "tackles": 1.0904, "clearances": 0.6897, 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25.6601, "accurate_pass": 22.0459, "duels_won": 2.2744, "total_long_balls": 2.658, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9359, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6965, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3494, "crosses_total": 1.1392, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.3332, "possession_lost": 6.8934, "dispossessed": 1.0021, "duels_lost": 2.9484, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "interceptions": 0.8891, "tackles_won": 0.1534, "tackles": 1.0904, "clearances": 0.6897, "total_contest": 0.5462, "won_contest": 0.4067, "challenges_lost": 0.6992, "fouls": 0.7778, "fouls_drawn": 0.5495, "blocks": 0.4943, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4731, "total_progression": 19.1011, "progressive_carries": 0.6473, "shots_off_target": 0.6329, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.972, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jorge de Frutos", "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.972, "skill_edge": -0.035, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4551, "defender_skill": 0.533, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jorge de Frutos", "market_value": 10900000, "role": "RW", "price_index": 1.0, "adjusted_quality": 0.533 } ], "xg_override": 0.0662 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2271, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9019, "after": 0.8767 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.1866, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 7.4597, "total_progression": 21.9473, "progressive_carries": 0.5976, "key_pass": 0.4299, "shots_off_target": 0.2188, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8693, "tackles": 1.4491, "tackles_won": 0.8859, "clearances": 1.8958, "aerial_won": 0.687, "total_shots": 0.2764, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 67.05, "total_pass": 21.2828, "accurate_pass": 17.7526, "duels_won": 1.7383, "total_long_balls": 2.0498, 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{ "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.026097 } ], "others_margin": 0.117317 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18830262124538422, "model_output": 0.1883, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.1883, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.302301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104665 }, { 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0436 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 1.5461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.325701 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153538 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.050494 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045447 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043625 } ], "others_margin": 0.019007 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842237949371338, "model_output": 6.8422, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0498 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2105, "expected_assists": 0.1129, "assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0982, "expected_goals": 0.1768, "goals": 0.1879, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.5602, "total_shots": 1.5424, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.08, "total_pass": 20.1343, "accurate_pass": 16.239, "duels_won": 5.6326, "total_long_balls": 1.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5869, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5704, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6686, "crosses_total": 2.0692, "crosses_accurate": 0.541, "touches": 38.7369, "possession_lost": 9.6458, "dispossessed": 1.1179, "duels_lost": 4.648, "aerial_won": 1.002, "aerial_lost": 0.7798, "interceptions": 0.8041, "tackles_won": 0.252, "tackles": 0.9746, "clearances": 1.0074, "total_contest": 2.2035, "won_contest": 1.1726, "challenges_lost": 0.4703, "fouls": 1.2491, "fouls_drawn": 2.4836, "blocks": 0.6, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.2056, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 10.2923, "total_progression": 43.8052, "progressive_carries": 1.3387, "shots_off_target": 0.9822 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2105, "expected_assists": 0.1129, "assists": 0.0966, "assist_rate": 0.0966, "expected_goals": 0.1768, "goals": 0.1849, "goal_rate": 0.1849, "shots_on_target": 0.561, "total_shots": 1.5664, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.08, "total_pass": 20.1343, "accurate_pass": 16.239, "duels_won": 5.6326, "total_long_balls": 1.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5869, 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"Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4003, "combined_rank_score": 1985.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3526.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6305, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tai Baribo", "ranking": 3998 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking": 4002 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 4005 }, { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Amondarain", "ranking": 4008 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.775, "history_matches": 13, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1135 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0796 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0502 } ], "others": -0.1813, "total": 0.495, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.483252 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.143353 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.128988 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116075 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.07157 } ], "others_margin": -0.312222 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5802068710327148, "model_output": 0.5802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 0.5802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037262 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032733 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015283 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.011287 } ], "others_margin": -0.028407 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.630538463592529, "model_output": 6.6305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0582, "total": 6.6305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042806 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.03154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023558 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01774 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015838 } ], "others_margin": -0.058163 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7188, "tackles": 1.8576, "tackles_won": 1.2071, "clearances": 1.838, "aerial_won": 0.4946, "total_shots": 0.5797, "rating": 6.6305, "minutes": 76.42, "total_pass": 21.9975, "accurate_pass": 18.524, "duels_won": 3.3245, "total_long_balls": 3.3315, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5917, "total_own_half_passes": 10.7175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5778, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9461, "crosses_total": 2.9733, "crosses_accurate": 0.5975, "touches": 41.7786, "possession_lost": 11.509, "dispossessed": 0.7062, "duels_lost": 3.205, "aerial_lost": 0.4703, "total_contest": 2.1267, "won_contest": 1.2389, "ball_recovery": 3.3849, "challenges_lost": 0.4902, "fouls": 0.6506, "fouls_drawn": 0.1355, "blocks": 0.0832, "goals": 0.0, 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7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4844, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3187, "combined_rank_score": 1150.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1990.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7051, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Johan Mojica", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Altay Bayındır", "ranking": 3182 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 3183 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Arnar Haraldsson", "ranking": 3184 }, { "player_name": "Brajan 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"importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1596 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0307, "total": 0.7409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.15955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055775 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025393 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02274 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017601 } ], "others_margin": 0.030803 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705141544342041, "model_output": 6.7051, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0338, "total": 6.7051, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025988 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023516 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012261 } ], "others_margin": -0.033732 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7963, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9046, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.6809, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 0.4049, "ball_recovery": 3.6429, "challenges_lost": 0.089, "fouls": 0.6976, "fouls_drawn": 1.4184, "blocks": 0.3019, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.0017, "big_chances_created": 0.065, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 12.5555, "total_progression": 25.4361, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "key_pass": 1.2919, "shots_off_target": 0.7376 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7368, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 0.4049, "ball_recovery": 3.6429, "challenges_lost": 0.089, "fouls": 0.6998, "fouls_drawn": 1.4313, "blocks": 0.3019, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.0017, "big_chances_created": 0.065, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 12.5555, "total_progression": 25.4361, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "key_pass": 1.2919, "shots_off_target": 0.7376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9394, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 6.6809, "after": 6.7059 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4184, "after": 1.4313 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 0.4049, "ball_recovery": 3.6429, "challenges_lost": 0.089, "fouls": 0.6998, "fouls_drawn": 1.4313, "blocks": 0.3019, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 0.4049, "ball_recovery": 3.6429, "challenges_lost": 0.089, "fouls": 0.6998, "fouls_drawn": 1.4313, "blocks": 0.3019, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.0017, "big_chances_created": 0.065, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 12.5555, "total_progression": 25.4361, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "key_pass": 1.2919, "shots_off_target": 0.7376, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 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"team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 0.4049, "ball_recovery": 3.6429, "challenges_lost": 0.089, "fouls": 0.6998, "fouls_drawn": 1.4313, "blocks": 0.3019, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1117, 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"goal_probability": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0214, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.0241, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 1.5458, "tackles_won": 0.9006, "clearances": 2.5511, "aerial_won": 0.7437, "total_shots": 0.7393, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 84.55, "total_pass": 29.7111, "accurate_pass": 21.7292, "duels_won": 3.5173, "total_long_balls": 5.7703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7069, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6745, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0547, "crosses_total": 6.7059, "crosses_accurate": 1.9021, "touches": 59.7139, "possession_lost": 17.6211, "dispossessed": 0.7059, "duels_lost": 3.4918, "aerial_lost": 0.5525, "total_contest": 1.8522, "won_contest": 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0.7692, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123784 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.078071 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043625 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.040533 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028957 } ], "others_margin": -0.037419 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.481236457824707, "model_output": 4.4812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3564 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3432 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3155 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.2155 } ], "others": 0.1896, "total": 4.4812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.114592 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110148 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.095687 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.080555 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.051513 } ], "others_margin": 0.043232 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3353911638259888, "model_output": 1.3354, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4007 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1281 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.087 } ], "others": -0.1469, "total": 1.3354, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.343836 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.132681 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127782 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.096322 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.06046 } ], "others_margin": -0.104319 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.34196317195892334, "model_output": 0.342, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1244 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 0.342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.124364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045973 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021593 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021397 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012936 } ], "others_margin": -0.041015 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644308567047119, "model_output": 6.6443, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7066, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7668, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3409, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0264, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3891, "fouls_drawn": 1.6275, "blocks": 0.5279, "goals": 0.0, 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}, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7079, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3408, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0262, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3856, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.5279, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.019, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 8.1725, "total_progression": 26.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.1583, "key_pass": 0.1205, "shots_off_target": 0.3218 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7079, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3408, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0262, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3856, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.5279, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.019, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 8.1725, "total_progression": 26.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.1583, "key_pass": 0.1205, "shots_off_target": 0.3218, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7079, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3408, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0262, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3856, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.5279, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.019, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 8.1725, "total_progression": 26.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.1583, "key_pass": 0.1205, "shots_off_target": 0.3218, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7079, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3408, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0262, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3856, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.5279, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0014, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.019, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 8.1725, "total_progression": 26.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.1583, "key_pass": 0.1205, "shots_off_target": 0.3218, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9709, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7079, "tackles": 1.2927, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 4.4673, "aerial_won": 1.3313, "total_shots": 0.3408, "rating": 6.6443, "minutes": 79.85, "total_pass": 23.1127, "accurate_pass": 16.7481, "duels_won": 4.4162, "total_long_balls": 6.4737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3176, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7013, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0468, "crosses_total": 0.0262, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7628, "possession_lost": 7.0757, "dispossessed": 0.137, "duels_lost": 3.1245, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "total_contest": 0.1207, "won_contest": 0.0449, "ball_recovery": 1.3872, "challenges_lost": 0.4102, "fouls": 1.3856, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.5279, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0014, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 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0.37513598799705505, "model_output": 0.3751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4889 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.01, "total": 0.3751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849492 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053307 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.053237 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.036398 }, { "name": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.747332 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059177 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.040989 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.033507 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.029751 } ], "others_margin": -0.057234 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.238270565867424, "model_output": 0.2383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0194, "total": 0.2383, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.232569 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065029 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018644 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.013083 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010277 } ], "others_margin": 0.019363 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.803658962249756, "model_output": 6.8037, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0255, "total": 6.8037, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016804 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01597 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.013532 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01327 } ], "others_margin": 0.025518 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5299, "tackles": 0.6671, "tackles_won": 0.3742, "clearances": 1.4902, "aerial_won": 0.5874, "total_shots": 0.2377, "rating": 6.8037, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 31.2784, "accurate_pass": 24.9446, "duels_won": 4.9166, "total_long_balls": 6.2788, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4165, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5281, "crosses_total": 0.3339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0303, "touches": 47.3119, "possession_lost": 8.8836, "dispossessed": 0.4439, "duels_lost": 2.9645, "aerial_lost": 1.0234, "total_contest": 1.7641, "won_contest": 1.1948, "ball_recovery": 5.7456, "challenges_lost": 0.2933, "fouls": 0.7487, "fouls_drawn": 0.7962, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.037, 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], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3486, "combined_rank_score": 1474.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2250.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6988, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Orel Mangala", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Clauss", "ranking": 3481 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Köhn", "ranking": 3482 }, { "player_name": "Leandro González Pírez", "ranking": 3483 }, { "player_name": "Mahdi Camara", "ranking": 3484 }, { "player_name": "Saud Abdulhamid", "ranking": 3485 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lassine Sinayoko", "ranking": 3487 }, { "player_name": "Tyrhys Dolan", "ranking": 3488 }, { "player_name": "Yann Gboho", "ranking": 3489 }, { "player_name": "Ansu Fati", "ranking": 3490 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 3491 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.718, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", 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true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470642 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.251172 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.167097 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.097615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.045684 } ], "others_margin": -0.093605 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3744659125804901, "model_output": 0.3745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3217 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1798 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0809, "total": 0.3745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.321694 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.179802 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.035995 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026441 } ], "others_margin": -0.080979 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698821067810059, "model_output": 6.6988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.6988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078573 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034166 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.014787 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013255 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.006855 } ], "others_margin": -0.036173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_contest": 0.3797, "won_contest": 0.2818, "challenges_lost": 0.5, "fouls": 1.6294, "fouls_drawn": 0.7294, "blocks": 0.1877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0547, "total_progression": 32.3217, "progressive_carries": 0.6487, "shots_off_target": 0.2688 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2647, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.1, "total_shots": 0.3669, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 21.0, "total_pass": 23.5408, "accurate_pass": 20.8809, "duels_won": 1.8819, "total_long_balls": 1.2976, "accurate_long_balls": 1.012, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4022, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4786, "crosses_total": 0.5372, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.2371, "possession_lost": 4.6615, "dispossessed": 0.6307, "duels_lost": 3.3535, "aerial_won": 0.3021, "aerial_lost": 0.4955, "interceptions": 1.8305, "tackles_won": 0.1798, "tackles": 0.5686, "clearances": 0.8091, "total_contest": 0.3797, "won_contest": 0.2818, "challenges_lost": 0.5, "fouls": 1.5706, "fouls_drawn": 0.711, "blocks": 0.1877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0547, "total_progression": 32.3217, "progressive_carries": 0.6487, "shots_off_target": 0.2688 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2333, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.9131, "after": 1.8305 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"goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.24, "total_pass": 24.9345, "accurate_pass": 22.1171, "duels_won": 1.9933, "total_long_balls": 1.3744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0719, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4353, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8404, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2766, "crosses_total": 0.569, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.1456, "possession_lost": 4.9375, "dispossessed": 0.6307, "duels_lost": 3.552, "aerial_won": 0.32, "aerial_lost": 0.4955, "interceptions": 1.9389, "tackles_won": 0.1904, "tackles": 0.6023, "clearances": 0.857, "total_contest": 0.4022, "won_contest": 0.2985, "challenges_lost": 0.5, "fouls": 1.6636, "fouls_drawn": 0.7531, "blocks": 0.1988, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.5908, "total_progression": 34.2352, "progressive_carries": 0.6871, "shots_off_target": 0.2847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.24 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2804, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.24, "total_pass": 24.9345, "accurate_pass": 22.1171, "duels_won": 1.9933, "total_long_balls": 1.3744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0719, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4353, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8404, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2766, "crosses_total": 0.569, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.1456, "possession_lost": 4.9375, "dispossessed": 0.6307, "duels_lost": 3.552, "aerial_won": 0.32, "aerial_lost": 0.4955, "interceptions": 1.9389, "tackles_won": 0.1904, "tackles": 0.6023, "clearances": 0.857, "total_contest": 0.4022, "won_contest": 0.2985, "challenges_lost": 0.5, "fouls": 1.6636, "fouls_drawn": 0.7531, "blocks": 0.1988, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.5908, "total_progression": 34.2352, "progressive_carries": 0.6871, "shots_off_target": 0.2847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.24, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.312, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2804, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.24, "total_pass": 24.9345, "accurate_pass": 22.1171, "duels_won": 1.9933, "total_long_balls": 1.3744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0719, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4353, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8404, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2766, "crosses_total": 0.569, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.1456, "possession_lost": 4.9375, "dispossessed": 0.6307, "duels_lost": 3.552, "aerial_won": 0.32, "aerial_lost": 0.4955, "interceptions": 1.9389, "tackles_won": 0.1904, "tackles": 0.6023, "clearances": 0.857, "total_contest": 0.4022, "won_contest": 0.2985, "challenges_lost": 0.5, "fouls": 1.6636, "fouls_drawn": 0.7531, "blocks": 0.1988, 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385888, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 175, "market_value": 8300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11, 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"tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083618, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083592, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083440, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3031, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083346, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081813, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "expected_assists": 0.1222, 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"substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3969, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "assists": 0.0624, "assist_rate": 0.0624, "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.2153, "total_shots": 0.7189, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5035 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0942, "after": 0.0463 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0323, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.0563, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.073, "provider_weight": 0.0204, "squad_weight_total": 0.5917, "weight_share": 0.0344, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Christantus Uche": { "player_id": 1884145, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 190, "market_value": 13200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0992, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025209, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025143, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, 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"assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025165, "match_date": "2025-12-07", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2937, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3346, "combined_rank_score": 1296.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2526 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0434, "total": 0.2568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.107045 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.092063 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.072751 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.065593 } ], "others_margin": -0.156399 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6190690994262695, "model_output": 6.6191, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.048, "total": 6.6191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.050325 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014804 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012237 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010877 } ], "others_margin": -0.047951 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.559)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0827, "shots_on_target": 0.2579, "total_shots": 0.6507, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2578, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3426, "accurate_pass": 2.6859, "duels_won": 1.4354, "total_long_balls": 0.156, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0388, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.005, "crosses_total": 0.338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5566, "possession_lost": 3.7355, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 2.8542, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.4699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.665, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.3772, "fouls_drawn": 0.6028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.0538, "clearances": 0.3766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0467, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 2.0687, "total_progression": 2.009, "progressive_carries": 0.1271, "shots_off_target": 0.3927 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.124, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.77, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.581 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.124, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.126, "after": 0.0705 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0264, "after": 0.0152 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, 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"ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3988, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1106, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.3883, "total_shots": 1.2039, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.2441, "accurate_pass": 8.3577, "duels_won": 3.9543, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0893, "crosses_total": 0.5347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.5808, "possession_lost": 9.8837, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 6.4498, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.6522, "won_contest": 0.2289, "ball_recovery": 2.3546, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 0.9829, "fouls_drawn": 0.9142, "assists": 0.1654, "assist_rate": 0.1654, "interceptions": 0.1654, "tackles_won": 0.1945, "tackles": 0.3599, "clearances": 0.6292, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2742, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 5.2329, "total_progression": 32.6699, "progressive_carries": 2.5318, "shots_off_target": 0.8156 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assists": 0.2222, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assists": 0.2222, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1486, "after": 0.0814 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0236 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "scorer_weight": 0.0948, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.1071, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "provider_weight": 0.0295, "squad_weight_total": 0.5917, "weight_share": 0.0499, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Christantus Uche": { "player_id": 1884145, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 190, "market_value": 13200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0992, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025209, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025143, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025107, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025288, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": 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1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025224, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025195, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.126, "after": 0.0705 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0264, "after": 0.0152 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3346, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.124, "scorer_weight": 0.0697, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.0787, "finishing_factor": 0.9886, "appearance_weight": 0.581, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3869, "total_shots": 0.976, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "key_pass": 0.3867, "rating": 6.6191, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0107, "offsides": 0.1957, 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 181, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 3, 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1106, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.3883, "total_shots": 1.2039, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.2441, "accurate_pass": 8.3577, "duels_won": 3.9543, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0893, "crosses_total": 0.5347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.5808, "possession_lost": 9.8837, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 6.4498, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.6522, "won_contest": 0.2289, "ball_recovery": 2.3546, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 0.9829, "fouls_drawn": 0.9142, "assists": 0.1654, "assist_rate": 0.1654, "interceptions": 0.1654, "tackles_won": 0.1945, "tackles": 0.3599, "clearances": 0.6292, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2742, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 5.2329, "total_progression": 32.6699, "progressive_carries": 2.5318, "shots_off_target": 0.8156 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assists": 0.2222, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assists": 0.2222, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1486, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3683, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1486, "after": 0.0814 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0236 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "scorer_weight": 0.0948, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.1071, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5216, "total_shots": 1.6171, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.4262, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.4461, "accurate_pass": 11.2259, "duels_won": 5.3114, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8359, "crosses_total": 0.7182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.0166, "possession_lost": 13.2756, "dispossessed": 1.7503, "duels_lost": 8.6633, "aerial_lost": 2.9239, "total_contest": 0.876, "won_contest": 0.3075, "ball_recovery": 3.1627, "challenges_lost": 0.3693, "fouls": 1.3202, "fouls_drawn": 1.2279, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2222, "tackles_won": 0.2612, "tackles": 0.4834, "clearances": 0.8451, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2018, "offsides": 0.5544, "ball_carries": 7.0288, "total_progression": 43.8817, "progressive_carries": 3.4007, "shots_off_target": 1.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0758, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1647, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2222, "provider_weight": 0.0295, "squad_weight_total": 0.5917, "weight_share": 0.0499, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Mauro Arambarri": { "player_id": 385888, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 175, "market_value": 8300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "expected_assists": 0.097, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083618, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Getafe", 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0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 6.685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079998 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013778 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013673 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.007367 } ], "others_margin": -0.040228 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3969, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "assists": 0.0624, "assist_rate": 0.0624, "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.2153, "total_shots": 0.7189, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5035 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.1051, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9597, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.9905, team xA 0.60 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9597, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6064, "team_expected_assists": 0.6006, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.9905, "opponent_lambda": 1.05, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0942, "after": 0.0463 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0323, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 0.885, "weight_share": 0.0563, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.1051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.8411, "rating": 6.685, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0839, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.272, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.0756, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.073, "provider_weight": 0.0204, "squad_weight_total": 0.5917, "weight_share": 0.0344, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.92, "expected_assists": 0.6, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 310, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } }, "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Álvaro García": { "player_id": 345111, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 168, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, 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0.5869, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083697, "match_date": "2026-04-03", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2851, "expected_assists": 0.275, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1451, "combined_rank_score": 598.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 626.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7625, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 571.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official 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"margin": 0.106566 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.105486 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.061266 } ], "others_margin": -0.044566 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7312456965446472, "model_output": 0.7312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.7312, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.242704 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069255 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059813 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.051529 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043954 } ], "others_margin": -0.023605 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732248306274414, "model_output": 6.7322, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 6.7322, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045845 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023355 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.020335 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.012904 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01237 } ], "others_margin": -0.036376 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.24, "goals": 0.2587, "goal_rate": 0.2587, "shots_on_target": 0.6432, "total_shots": 1.825, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6837, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5514, "fouls_drawn": 0.3029, "assists": 0.2922, "assist_rate": 0.2922, "interceptions": 0.8879, "tackles_won": 0.692, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.157, "xgot": 0.2227, "offsides": 0.3626, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.1818 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.24, "goals": 0.2603, "goal_rate": 0.2603, "shots_on_target": 0.6407, "total_shots": 1.8141, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assists": 0.2934, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.157, "xgot": 0.2227, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.1818 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8948, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.825, "after": 1.8141 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5514, "after": 0.5586 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.24, "goals": 0.2603, "goal_rate": 0.2603, "shots_on_target": 0.6407, "total_shots": 1.8225, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assists": 0.2934, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.157, "xgot": 0.2227, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.1818 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2051, "goals": 0.2224, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assists": 0.2934, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.1903, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.0098, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "skill_edge": -0.039, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.524, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "market_value": 7600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.524 } ], "xg_override": 0.2051 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8225, "after": 1.5573 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1818, "after": 1.0098 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6407, "after": 0.5475 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2603, "after": 0.2224 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.24, "after": 0.2051 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2227, "after": 0.1903 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.157, "after": 0.1342 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2051, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.1903, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.0098, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.1725, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.0098, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0678, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2051, "after": 0.1859 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.1725, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.0098, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0678, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1451, "fifa_rank": 571.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "ball_recovery": 3.139, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2996, "assist_rate": 0.2934, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles_won": 0.6933, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.1725, "offsides": 0.3675, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 1.0098, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1696, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0678, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1696, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "scorer_weight": 0.1985, "squad_weight_total": 1.1378, "weight_share": 0.1745, "finishing_factor": 1.0678, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.3768, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3768, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1985 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5475, "total_shots": 1.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7296, "rating": 6.7322, "minutes": 80.53, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6811, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.739, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "assists": 0.0991, "assist_rate": 0.0991, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.2773, "total_shots": 0.8993, "rating": 7.0575, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 53.886, "accurate_pass": 46.3363, "duels_won": 3.5376, "total_long_balls": 7.5369, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7985, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.1642, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.172, "crosses_total": 4.7111, "crosses_accurate": 1.2002, "touches": 67.8689, "possession_lost": 12.4211, "dispossessed": 0.5723, "duels_lost": 3.9891, "aerial_won": 0.4412, "aerial_lost": 0.843, "interceptions": 0.6377, "tackles_won": 1.2143, "tackles": 1.8372, "clearances": 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.172, "crosses_total": 4.7095, "crosses_accurate": 1.2002, "touches": 67.8689, "possession_lost": 12.4211, "dispossessed": 0.5723, "duels_lost": 3.9891, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.843, "interceptions": 0.638, "tackles_won": 1.2206, "tackles": 1.8372, "clearances": 0.8296, "total_contest": 0.7827, "won_contest": 0.494, "challenges_lost": 0.984, "fouls": 1.3214, "fouls_drawn": 0.7637, "blocks": 0.3961, "big_chances_created": 0.3623, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "ball_carries": 19.0041, "total_progression": 39.0509, "progressive_carries": 0.4659, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8822, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": 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0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.379 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1559 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0349 } ], "others": 0.0294, "total": 1.6449, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.378954 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155856 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050859 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034943 } ], "others_margin": 0.02959 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815228462219238, "model_output": 6.8152, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 6.8152, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029745 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010239 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1541, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "assists": 0.0908, "assist_rate": 0.0908, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.1261, "shots_on_target": 0.4683, "total_shots": 1.6411, "rating": 6.8152, "minutes": 80.71, "total_pass": 30.1843, "accurate_pass": 25.8548, "duels_won": 3.1088, "total_long_balls": 1.6536, "accurate_long_balls": 0.868, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.799, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 42.4876, "possession_lost": 7.7555, "dispossessed": 0.8522, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 0.153, "aerial_lost": 0.3721, "interceptions": 0.3638, "tackles_won": 0.9495, "tackles": 1.3934, "clearances": 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0.011212 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008159 } ], "others_margin": -0.004268 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.610032558441162, "model_output": 6.61, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0579, "total": 6.61, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039554 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032897 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018541 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.013007 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01282 } ], "others_margin": -0.057853 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8724, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2835, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.6012, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3603, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.9935, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1482, "goal_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0.1744, "assist_rate": 0.1744, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.3113, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.2899 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8688, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2838, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, 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12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "assists": 0.1737, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.2899, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8688, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2838, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.5999, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.2899, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8688, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2838, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.5999, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0242, "expected_assists": 0.1553, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.2899, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0955 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8688, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2838, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.5999, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0242, "expected_assists": 0.1553, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8688, "tackles": 2.0281, "tackles_won": 1.2838, "clearances": 2.6599, "aerial_won": 0.6768, "total_shots": 0.5999, "rating": 6.61, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0242, "expected_assists": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9913, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9374, "tackles": 1.0663, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 5.2893, "aerial_won": 1.6227, "total_shots": 0.3816, "rating": 6.753, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3816 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.9913, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9374, "tackles": 1.0663, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 5.2893, "aerial_won": 1.6227, "total_shots": 0.3816, "rating": 6.753, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3816 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9374, "tackles": 1.0663, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 5.2893, "aerial_won": 1.6227, "total_shots": 0.3816, "rating": 6.753, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3816, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9374, "tackles": 1.0663, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 5.2893, "aerial_won": 1.6227, "total_shots": 0.3816, "rating": 6.753, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3816, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9374, "tackles": 1.0663, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 5.2893, "aerial_won": 1.6227, "total_shots": 0.3816, "rating": 6.753, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3816, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.947 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1432, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9578, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2005, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.0801, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0453, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.4021, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1432, "after": 1.1638 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9578, "after": 0.9719 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2005, "after": 1.2069 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.06, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9224, "creation_factor": 1.0362 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.075, "after": 0.068 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0108, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5194, "tackles_won": 0.9719, "clearances": 6.3426, "aerial_won": 1.4182, "total_shots": 1.2069, "rating": 6.894, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0447, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.4011, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.06, "ball_carries": 18.5286, "total_progression": 70.644, "progressive_carries": 0.7637, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.7984, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0657, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 0.9224, "creation_factor": 1.0362, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0107, "assist_rate": 0.0129, "provider_weight": 0.0112, "squad_weight_total": 0.7191, "weight_share": 0.0156, "creation_factor": 1.0362, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1701, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1701, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0549, "total": 6.5947, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.043753 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.040734 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01903 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013171 } ], "others_margin": -0.05495 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6941, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9561, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8859, "fouls_drawn": 0.7616, "blocks": 0.6587, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0173, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9274, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3121, "after": 0.3067 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8013 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9934, "total_progression": 20.6562, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2395, "shots_off_target": 0.3121, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8013, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3749, "fifa_rank": 2877.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { 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creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6901, "tackles": 1.6077, "tackles_won": 0.9556, "clearances": 2.6105, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.3121, "rating": 6.5947, "minutes": 83.47, "total_pass": 27.1185, "accurate_pass": 21.063, "duels_won": 3.8445, "total_long_balls": 3.5182, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7169, "crosses_total": 0.5859, "crosses_accurate": 0.0911, "touches": 47.072, "possession_lost": 9.6476, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 3.6139, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "total_contest": 0.9178, "won_contest": 0.5513, "ball_recovery": 3.1466, "challenges_lost": 1.0355, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.7645, "blocks": 0.6587, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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{ "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.005566 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004524 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.004404 } ], "others_margin": -0.00024 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.11777801066637039, "model_output": -0.1178, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": -0.1178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029964 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.022722 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.021048 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014987 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.010495 } ], "others_margin": -0.020424 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.003893852233887, "model_output": 7.0039, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0029, "goals_prevented": -0.1163, "rating": 7.0039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.6826, "accurate_pass": 20.8206, "total_long_balls": 14.8728, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9982, "touches": 44.4304, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.1095, "high_claims": 1.8945, "punches": 0.9873, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.4537, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4537, "saves_inside_box": 2.3738, "possession_lost": 11.862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7395, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9511, "shots_faced": 9.0, "expected_saves": 2.2, "high_pressure_saves": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0029, "goals_prevented": -0.1163, "rating": 7.0039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.6826, "accurate_pass": 20.8206, "total_long_balls": 14.8728, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9982, "touches": 44.4304, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.1095, "high_claims": 1.8945, "punches": 0.9873, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.4537, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4537, "saves_inside_box": 2.3738, "possession_lost": 11.862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7395, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9511, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.0, "after": 8.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.2, "after": 2.16 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.76, "after": 0.74 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"match_date": "2026-03-16", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.4918 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081804, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3811 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1585, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8863, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás 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36, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.529104686408814, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.134, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9988, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (36 historical appearances) to 4.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7087, "goals_prevented": -0.0623, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.225, "accurate_pass": 22.4028, "total_long_balls": 22.1586, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5535, "touches": 45.1944, "clearances": 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7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 8.5535, 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074671 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.011616 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.011456 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011064 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.005541 } ], "others_margin": -0.014104 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.06227452680468559, "model_output": -0.0623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": -0.0623, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034891 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.019927 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.017073 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.016902 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.016626 } ], "others_margin": -0.029945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886274814605713, "model_output": 6.8863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 6.8863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043643 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033099 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018121 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.015858 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.012929 } ], "others_margin": -0.019196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7054, "goals_prevented": -0.0622, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0476, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6861, "goals_prevented": -0.0622, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7054, "after": 2.6861 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4269, "goals_prevented": -0.0099, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.53, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1589, "appearance_probability": 0.134 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4269, "goals_prevented": -0.0099, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4269, "goals_prevented": -0.0099, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.134, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4269, "goals_prevented": -0.0099, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1585, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "player_id": 965031, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 183, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", 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14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083598, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "expected_assists": 0.0801, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1414, "combined_rank_score": 585.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 410.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9314, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 761.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7668, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Andrei Rațiu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Talisca", "ranking": 1410 }, { "player_name": "Berat Djimsiti", "ranking": 1411 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Souprayen", "ranking": 1412 }, { "player_name": "Zeki Çelik", "ranking": 1413 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matteo Politano", "ranking": 1415 }, { "player_name": "Seong-jun Min", "ranking": 1416 }, { "player_name": "Martin Baturina", "ranking": 1417 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Buendía", "ranking": 1418 }, { "player_name": "Santi Cazorla", "ranking": 1419 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.415030018156667, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.234, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0047, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (41 historical appearances) to 14.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3385, "tackles": 0.6753, "tackles_won": 0.4482, 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}, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.9362, "aerialWon": 0.6756, "totalClearance_p90": 2.7286, "totalTackle": 1.6832, "defensive_actions": 2.5747 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.33847424387931824, "model_output": 0.3385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4846 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.3385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.827618 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034558 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.032596 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032468 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.029724 } ], "others_margin": -0.100921 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6753106713294983, "model_output": 0.6753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8015 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0505, "total": 0.6753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.858015 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.040171 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039189 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.029488 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026751 } ], "others_margin": 0.077825 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4481767416000366, "model_output": 0.4482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4837 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0497, "total": 0.4482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.83545 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.044324 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02861 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.025493 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.02548 } ], "others_margin": 0.117591 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9030465483665466, "model_output": 0.903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0477 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0444 } ], "others": -0.1136, "total": 0.903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.907627 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.145169 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070329 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050938 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.042775 } ], "others_margin": -0.118499 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.27490246295928955, "model_output": 0.2749, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7863 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1575 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0679, "total": 0.2749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.846023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.30984 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.08857 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.073843 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.072623 } ], "others_margin": -0.220574 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.45080432295799255, "model_output": 0.4508, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1632 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.4508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.268538 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.163193 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.03642 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031402 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.026548 } ], "others_margin": -0.012721 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.766817092895508, "model_output": 6.7668, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.7668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01609 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010896 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.009545 } ], "others_margin": -0.028296 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3401, "tackles": 0.6785, "tackles_won": 0.4503, "clearances": 0.9073, "aerial_won": 0.2762, "total_shots": 0.4529, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 17.23, "total_pass": 10.0576, "accurate_pass": 8.0151, "duels_won": 1.0047, "total_long_balls": 0.6894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3896, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6256, "crosses_total": 1.3895, "crosses_accurate": 0.3872, "touches": 17.8597, "possession_lost": 4.6113, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.2985, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.7367, "won_contest": 0.7367, "ball_recovery": 1.9621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4214, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1711, "total_progression": 1.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.1936, "key_pass": 0.3872, "shots_off_target": 0.4529 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3378, "tackles": 0.6785, "tackles_won": 0.4479, "clearances": 0.9073, "aerial_won": 0.2762, "total_shots": 0.4504, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 17.23, "total_pass": 10.0576, "accurate_pass": 8.0151, "duels_won": 1.0047, "total_long_balls": 0.6894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3896, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6256, "crosses_total": 1.3827, "crosses_accurate": 0.3872, "touches": 17.8597, "possession_lost": 4.6113, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.2985, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.7367, "won_contest": 0.7367, "ball_recovery": 1.9621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4174, "fouls_drawn": 0.0018, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1711, "total_progression": 1.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.1936, "key_pass": 0.3872, "shots_off_target": 0.4529 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1914, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3895, "after": 1.3827 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2826, "tackles": 0.5676, "tackles_won": 0.3747, "clearances": 0.7591, "aerial_won": 0.2311, "total_shots": 0.3789, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.42, "projection_minutes": 17.23, "minutes_scale": 0.8366, "appearance_probability": 0.234 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2826, "tackles": 0.5676, "tackles_won": 0.3747, "clearances": 0.7591, "aerial_won": 0.2311, "total_shots": 0.3789, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2826, "tackles": 0.5676, "tackles_won": 0.3747, "clearances": 0.7591, "aerial_won": 0.2311, "total_shots": 0.3789, "rating": 6.7668, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053988 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.013503 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012417 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011672 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010818 } ], "others_margin": -0.074203 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.092, "goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.7679, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.2166, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 20.72, "total_pass": 4.6798, "accurate_pass": 3.6081, "duels_won": 2.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.042, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3559, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1548, "touches": 10.4368, "possession_lost": 2.7382, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.0533, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.3989, "won_contest": 0.167, "ball_recovery": 0.5088, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.6819, "fouls_drawn": 0.8434, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0159, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "tackles": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.3225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1211, "xgot": 0.1251, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.2324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1524, "shots_off_target": 0.4986 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goals": 0.1121, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 20.72, "minutes_scale": 1.224, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goals": 0.1121, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1126, "after": 0.0574 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0168, "after": 0.0095 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "scorer_weight": 0.0572, "squad_weight_total": 1.1378, "weight_share": 0.0503, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.3768, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3768, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1985 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0094, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0094, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0076, "squad_weight_total": 0.7191, "weight_share": 0.0106, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1701, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1701, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1103, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025955 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025611 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010605 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.008697 } ], "others_margin": -0.050754 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0696, "goals": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.0778, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6332, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.3462, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 18.81, "total_pass": 7.0691, "accurate_pass": 5.6504, "duels_won": 0.2241, "total_long_balls": 0.3103, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6747, "crosses_total": 1.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.4879, "touches": 15.8786, "possession_lost": 6.3769, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 3.3436, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 0.7586, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2637, "big_chances_missed": 0.3267, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9211, "total_progression": 35.9481, "progressive_carries": 2.4394, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 18.81, "minutes_scale": 1.3446, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0936, "after": 0.0474 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0397, "after": 0.0223 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "scorer_weight": 0.051, "squad_weight_total": 1.1378, "weight_share": 0.0448, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.3768, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3768, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1985 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0219, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0178, "squad_weight_total": 0.7191, "weight_share": 0.0248, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1701, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1701, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1103, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alemão": { "player_id": 981604, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 4400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0094, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0742, "total": 6.5904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053988 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.013503 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012417 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011672 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010818 } ], "others_margin": -0.074203 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.092, "goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.7679, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.2166, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 20.72, "total_pass": 4.6798, "accurate_pass": 3.6081, "duels_won": 2.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.042, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3559, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1548, "touches": 10.4368, "possession_lost": 2.7382, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.0533, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.3989, "won_contest": 0.167, "ball_recovery": 0.5088, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.6819, "fouls_drawn": 0.8434, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0159, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "tackles": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.3225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1211, "xgot": 0.1251, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.2324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1524, "shots_off_target": 0.4986 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goals": 0.1121, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 20.72, "minutes_scale": 1.224, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goals": 0.1121, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1126, "after": 0.0574 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0168, "after": 0.0095 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "scorer_weight": 0.0572, "squad_weight_total": 1.1378, "weight_share": 0.0503, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.3768, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3768, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1985 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "key_pass": 0.2651, "rating": 6.5904, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.078, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.6103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0094, "finishing_factor": 0.9969, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0094, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0076, "squad_weight_total": 0.7191, "weight_share": 0.0106, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1701, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1701, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1103, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0219, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025955 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025611 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010605 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.008697 } ], "others_margin": -0.050754 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0696, "goals": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.0778, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6332, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.3462, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 18.81, "total_pass": 7.0691, "accurate_pass": 5.6504, "duels_won": 0.2241, "total_long_balls": 0.3103, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6747, "crosses_total": 1.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.4879, "touches": 15.8786, "possession_lost": 6.3769, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 3.3436, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 0.7586, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2637, "big_chances_missed": 0.3267, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9211, "total_progression": 35.9481, "progressive_carries": 2.4394, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 18.81, "minutes_scale": 1.3446, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0936, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 1.1585, xG scale 0.9063, xA scale 1.0070, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.05, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6777, "team_expected_assists": 0.6825, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9063, "xa_scale": 1.007, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0936, "after": 0.0474 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0397, "after": 0.0223 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "scorer_weight": 0.051, "squad_weight_total": 1.1378, "weight_share": 0.0448, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.3768, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3768, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1985 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "total_shots": 0.8514, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0.4655, "rating": 6.5938, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.5049, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0219, "finishing_factor": 1.0766, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0178, "squad_weight_total": 0.7191, "weight_share": 0.0248, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1701, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1701, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1103, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 384, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.2234, "xg_multiplier": 1.1064, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 }, { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (SS) is slightly favored against Mujaid Sadick and Unai López in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "xg_multiplier": 0.972, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge de Frutos", "role": "RW", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (LWB) is evenly matched against Jorge de Frutos in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Álvaro García" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.1905, "xg_multiplier": 1.0776, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro García", "role": "LW", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (RWB) is slightly favored against Álvaro García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.302, "xg_contribution": 0.1114, "xg_multiplier": 1.0766, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 }, { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is slightly favored against Unai López and Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Nemanja Gudelj", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.294, "xg_contribution": 0.0756, "xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 }, { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nemanja Gudelj (CM) is slightly favored against Unai López and Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.0603, "xg_multiplier": 0.8822, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.1225, "xg_multiplier": 0.9487, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) is evenly matched against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Andrés García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.2051, "xg_multiplier": 0.8545, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrés García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Johan Mojica" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "xg_contribution": 0.3326, "xg_multiplier": 0.9934, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 }, { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (ST) is evenly matched against Andrés García and Johan Mojica in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Andrés García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.1441, "xg_multiplier": 0.9471, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (RW) is evenly matched against Andrés García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.487, "away_midfield_power": 0.437, "home_creative_power": 0.392, "away_creative_power": 0.437, "home_defensive_power": 0.392, "away_defensive_power": 0.437, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.527, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Francho Serrano", "Ramón Terrats", "Mario Martín" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Mario Martín vs Pedro Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.002, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.998 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García", "Sergio Camello", "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Kiko Femenía": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Mario Martín", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Francho Serrano", "Andrés García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Andrés García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Nemanja Gudelj", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Iván Balliu": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Pedro Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.062, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0095, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9972, "home_midfield_factor": 1.002, "away_midfield_factor": 0.998, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4623, "away_avg_quality": 0.4586, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0037, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0618, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0755, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0225, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6671, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8378 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 0.8395 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.94, "result": 0.7891 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9075 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9213, "result": 0.8361 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.845 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0095, "result": 0.853 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.062, "result": 0.915 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.915, "result": 0.915, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.915, "result": 0.915 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.915 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.135 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3284, "result": 0.9511 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9511, "result": 0.951, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 0.951, "result": 0.9238, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.924 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.924 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.924, "result": 0.924, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.924 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8646, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9859 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.998, "result": 0.984 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.06, "result": 1.043 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.043 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9528, "result": 0.9938 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0044 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9972, "result": 1.0015 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.041, "result": 1.0425 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0425, "result": 1.0425, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0425, "result": 1.0425 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0425 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1838, "result": 1.2268 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3259, "result": 1.0214 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0214, "result": 1.021, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.021, "result": 1.0502, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.05 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.05 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.05, "result": 1.05, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.05 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1838, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.924, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.05, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9511, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0214, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.924, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9213, "attack_index": 0.729, "defense_concede_index": 1.118, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.73, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9528, "attack_index": 0.956, "defense_concede_index": 0.924, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.43, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 0.951, Away 1.021). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.924, Away 1.050 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.05, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.951, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.021 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:32:52Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }