{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261021", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1335, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1089, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1176, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.285, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1335 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1176 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1089 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1003 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0793 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1003, "0-1": 0.1176, "0-2": 0.0713, "0-3": 0.0285, "0-4": 0.0086, "0-5": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.1089, "1-1": 0.1335, "1-2": 0.0793, "1-3": 0.0317, "1-4": 0.0095, "1-5": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.0612, "2-1": 0.0735, "2-2": 0.0441, "2-3": 0.0176, "2-4": 0.0053, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0227, "3-1": 0.0272, "3-2": 0.0163, "3-3": 0.0065, "3-4": 0.002, "4-0": 0.0063, "4-1": 0.0076, "4-2": 0.0045, "4-3": 0.0018, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0017, "5-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3358, "draw": 0.285, "away_win": 0.3792 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4071, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5929, "btts_yes": 0.4702, "btts_no": 0.5298, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3012, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3289 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Levante 0W-3D-7L vs Athletic Club over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Iván Romero, Robert Navarro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.112, "away_lambda": 1.2, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 0.95, "away_multiplier": 1.05 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1335, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3358, "draw": 0.285, "away_win": 0.3792 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3792, "fair_spread": -0.088, "fair_total": 2.312, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.112, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.2, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4071, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4702, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3012, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3289, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.2643, "probability": 0.2323, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Maroan Sannadi (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.2783, "probability": 0.2429, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1337, "probability": 0.1251, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1816, "probability": 0.1661, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.312, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 802, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.6, "possession_home_pct": 48.8, "possession_away_pct": 51.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3792, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 2.31.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Levante chance creation leans on Iván Romero against Jesús Areso in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Thiago Fernández.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Robert Navarro; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Mikel Jauregizar.", "Assist usage should flow through Jon Ander Olasagasti, Yuri Berchiche; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.16 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Levante": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2118, "goal_rate": 0.1985, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.6863, "dispossessed": 0.8446, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3137, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0109, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1909, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 0.9583, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421070, "match_date": "2026-10-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "expected_assists": 0.071, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1324, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.084, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5795, "combined_rank_score": 4058.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6823, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Petar Ratkov", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Mráz", "ranking": 5790 }, { "player_name": "José Sagredo", "ranking": 5791 }, { "player_name": "Jahmai Simpson-Pusey", "ranking": 5792 }, { "player_name": "Keisuke Gotō", "ranking": 5793 }, { "player_name": "Baltasar Barcia", "ranking": 5794 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ayoube Amaimouni", "ranking": 5796 }, { "player_name": "Robert Skov", "ranking": 5797 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Perlaza", "ranking": 5798 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Elordi", "ranking": 5799 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Friedrich", "ranking": 5800 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9997, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.207, "goals": 0.1965, "goal_rate": 0.1965, "shots_on_target": 0.5927, "total_shots": 1.5025, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.527, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 6.0496, "accurate_pass": 4.7722, "duels_won": 2.2212, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0676, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.4069, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.7076, "accuratePass": 4.7722, "totalShots": 0.7733 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2070228010416031, "model_output": 0.207, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 0.207, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.295713 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.148955 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.112994 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.049718 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.043182 } ], "others_margin": 0.004709 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.19650550186634064, "model_output": 0.1965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.1965, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26857 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.121875 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.08231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.052702 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.040387 } ], "others_margin": -0.081154 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5926806330680847, "model_output": 0.5927, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1649 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0321 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 0.5927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26815 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.09609 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078692 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077042 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.057278 } ], "others_margin": 0.026559 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5025289058685303, "model_output": 1.5025, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1799 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0349 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 1.5025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.432632 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.179918 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.080741 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039236 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034947 } ], "others_margin": 0.023991 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", 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"margin": 0.247095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077387 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069848 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.041934 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040836 } ], "others_margin": -0.272735 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.682335376739502, "model_output": 6.6823, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.073, "total": 6.6823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045932 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.017932 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017764 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.011864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011257 } ], "others_margin": -0.073059 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.207, "goals": 0.1964, "goal_rate": 0.1964, "shots_on_target": 0.5925, "total_shots": 1.5021, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5268, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 6.0478, "accurate_pass": 4.7708, "duels_won": 2.2205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7068, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5223, "possession_lost": 3.6863, "dispossessed": 0.8446, "duels_lost": 2.4624, "aerial_lost": 1.1584, "total_contest": 0.3137, "won_contest": 0.3137, "ball_recovery": 0.8446, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0868, "assists": 0.3137, "assist_rate": 0.3137, "interceptions": 0.1926, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3662, "total_progression": 1.525, "progressive_carries": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.9095 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.207, "goals": 0.1964, "goal_rate": 0.1964, "shots_on_target": 0.5925, "total_shots": 1.5021, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5268, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 6.0478, "accurate_pass": 4.7708, "duels_won": 2.2205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7068, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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"LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0109, "skill_edge": 0.0074, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.5035, "defender_skill": 0.4869, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "market_value": 8400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5365 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2093 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5021, "after": 1.5185 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9095, "after": 0.9194 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5925, "after": 0.599 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2093, "goal_rate": 0.1985, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.599, "total_shots": 1.5185, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.5268, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 6.0478, "accurate_pass": 4.7708, "duels_won": 2.2205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7068, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5223, "possession_lost": 3.6863, "dispossessed": 0.8446, "duels_lost": 2.4624, "aerial_lost": 1.1584, "total_contest": 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2118, "goal_rate": 0.1985, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.599, "total_shots": 1.5185, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5268, "rating": 6.6823, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 6.0478, "accurate_pass": 4.7708, "duels_won": 2.2205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7068, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5223, "possession_lost": 3.6863, "dispossessed": 0.8446, "duels_lost": 2.4624, "aerial_lost": 1.1584, "total_contest": 0.3137, "won_contest": 0.3137, "ball_recovery": 0.8446, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0868, 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"team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1881 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.7257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244088 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.046655 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041926 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034606 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.028804 } ], "others_margin": -0.027789 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.929532051086426, "model_output": 6.9295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3283 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1205 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0425 } ], "others": -0.0775, "total": 0.5455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.328331 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120524 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05736 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042454 } ], "others_margin": -0.077581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.773910999298096, "model_output": 6.7739, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0481, "total": 6.7739, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018616 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.012528 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011337 } ], "others_margin": -0.047993 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": 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0.022543 } ], "others_margin": -0.015507 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872581958770752, "model_output": 6.8726, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 6.8726, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009618 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1278, "assists": 0.1014, "assist_rate": 0.1014, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.3301, "total_shots": 1.0516, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 31.1673, "accurate_pass": 22.643, "duels_won": 4.6069, "total_long_balls": 4.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4806, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8748, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7682, "crosses_total": 4.7618, "crosses_accurate": 1.1412, "touches": 48.5289, "possession_lost": 15.4541, "dispossessed": 0.8064, "duels_lost": 3.8063, "aerial_won": 0.6155, "aerial_lost": 1.0955, "interceptions": 0.717, "tackles_won": 1.3492, "tackles": 2.0885, "clearances": 0.7266, "total_contest": 1.3757, "won_contest": 0.7896, "challenges_lost": 0.7046, "fouls": 0.6353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1133, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.3376, "big_chances_missed": 0.0798, "xgot": 0.1646, "ball_carries": 11.1874, "total_progression": 49.5797, "progressive_carries": 1.5495, "shots_off_target": 0.7215 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1278, "assists": 0.1014, "assist_rate": 0.1014, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.3301, "total_shots": 1.0516, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 31.1673, "accurate_pass": 22.643, "duels_won": 4.6069, "total_long_balls": 4.0653, 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1.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1278, "assists": 0.1014, "assist_rate": 0.1014, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.0779, "goal_rate": 0.0779, "shots_on_target": 0.3345, "total_shots": 1.0655, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 31.1673, "accurate_pass": 22.643, "duels_won": 4.6069, "total_long_balls": 4.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4806, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8748, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7682, "crosses_total": 4.7618, "crosses_accurate": 1.1412, "touches": 48.5289, "possession_lost": 15.4541, "dispossessed": 0.8064, "duels_lost": 3.8063, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0955, "interceptions": 0.717, "tackles_won": 1.3492, "tackles": 2.0885, "clearances": 0.7266, "total_contest": 1.3757, "won_contest": 0.7896, "challenges_lost": 0.7046, "fouls": 0.6353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1133, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.3376, "big_chances_missed": 0.0809, "xgot": 0.1668, "ball_carries": 11.1874, "total_progression": 49.5797, "progressive_carries": 1.5495, "shots_off_target": 0.731, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "skill_edge": 0.001, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4396, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, 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4.7618, "crosses_accurate": 1.1412, "touches": 48.5289, "possession_lost": 15.4541, "dispossessed": 0.8064, "duels_lost": 3.8063, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0955, "interceptions": 0.717, "tackles_won": 1.3492, "tackles": 2.0885, "clearances": 0.7266, "total_contest": 1.3757, "won_contest": 0.7896, "challenges_lost": 0.7046, "fouls": 0.6353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1133, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.3376, "big_chances_missed": 0.0809, "xgot": 0.1668, "ball_carries": 11.1874, "total_progression": 49.5797, "progressive_carries": 1.5495, "shots_off_target": 0.731, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "assist_rate": 0.1014, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0779, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3345, "total_shots": 1.0655, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 31.1673, "accurate_pass": 22.643, "duels_won": 4.6069, "total_long_balls": 4.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4806, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8748, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7682, "crosses_total": 4.7618, "crosses_accurate": 1.1412, "touches": 48.5289, "possession_lost": 15.4541, "dispossessed": 0.8064, "duels_lost": 3.8063, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0955, "interceptions": 0.717, "tackles_won": 1.3492, "tackles": 2.0885, "clearances": 0.7266, "total_contest": 1.3757, "won_contest": 0.7896, "challenges_lost": 0.7046, "fouls": 0.6353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1133, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.3376, "big_chances_missed": 0.0809, "xgot": 0.1688, "ball_carries": 11.1874, "total_progression": 49.5797, "progressive_carries": 1.5495, "shots_off_target": 0.731, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9384, "creation_factor": 0.8515 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1278, "after": 0.1337 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "assist_rate": 0.1014, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0779, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3345, "total_shots": 1.0655, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 31.1673, "accurate_pass": 22.643, "duels_won": 4.6069, "total_long_balls": 4.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4806, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8748, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7682, "crosses_total": 4.7618, "crosses_accurate": 1.1412, "touches": 48.5289, "possession_lost": 15.4541, "dispossessed": 0.8064, "duels_lost": 3.8063, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0955, "interceptions": 0.717, "tackles_won": 1.3492, "tackles": 2.0885, "clearances": 0.7266, "total_contest": 1.3757, "won_contest": 0.7896, "challenges_lost": 0.7046, "fouls": 0.6353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1133, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.3376, "big_chances_missed": 0.0809, "xgot": 0.1688, "ball_carries": 11.1874, "total_progression": 49.5797, "progressive_carries": 1.5495, "shots_off_target": 0.731, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9384, "creation_factor": 0.8515, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 320, "fifa_rank": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0038, "tackles": 3.34, "tackles_won": 1.933, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8159, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.7519, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 40.3054, "accurate_pass": 34.1246, "duels_won": 5.8761, "total_long_balls": 4.9123, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3633, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7613, "crosses_total": 1.1496, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 63.7478, "possession_lost": 10.9661, "dispossessed": 0.4837, "duels_lost": 6.0198, "aerial_lost": 1.4187, "total_contest": 1.6114, "won_contest": 0.7099, "ball_recovery": 3.6895, "challenges_lost": 2.4283, "fouls": 0.8031, "fouls_drawn": 0.8967, "blocks": 0.4529, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.0435, "big_chances_created": 0.0596, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 15.9568, "total_progression": 63.9757, "progressive_carries": 1.0055, "key_pass": 0.3329, "shots_off_target": 0.3471, "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0038, "tackles": 3.34, "tackles_won": 1.933, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8159, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.7519, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 40.3054, "accurate_pass": 34.1246, "duels_won": 5.8761, "total_long_balls": 4.9123, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3633, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7613, "crosses_total": 1.1496, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 63.7478, "possession_lost": 10.9661, "dispossessed": 0.4837, "duels_lost": 6.0198, "aerial_lost": 1.4187, "total_contest": 1.6114, "won_contest": 0.7099, "ball_recovery": 3.6895, "challenges_lost": 2.4283, "fouls": 0.8031, "fouls_drawn": 0.8967, "blocks": 0.4529, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "expected_assists": 0.0621, "shots_on_target": 0.0435, "big_chances_created": 0.0596, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 15.9568, "total_progression": 63.9757, "progressive_carries": 1.0055, "key_pass": 0.3329, "shots_off_target": 0.3471, "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9683, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0038, "tackles": 3.34, "tackles_won": 1.933, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8159, "total_shots": 0.3906, "rating": 6.7519, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 40.3054, "accurate_pass": 34.1246, "duels_won": 5.8761, "total_long_balls": 4.9123, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3633, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7613, "crosses_total": 1.1496, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 63.7478, "possession_lost": 10.9661, "dispossessed": 0.4837, "duels_lost": 6.0198, "aerial_lost": 1.4187, "total_contest": 1.6114, "won_contest": 0.7099, "ball_recovery": 3.6895, "challenges_lost": 2.4283, "fouls": 0.8031, "fouls_drawn": 0.8967, "blocks": 0.4529, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, 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"name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1157 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0411, "total": 0.3257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115733 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018194 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.008117 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007684 } ], "others_margin": -0.041108 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822774887084961, "model_output": 6.8228, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1447, "tackles": 1.2248, "tackles_won": 0.7918, "clearances": 5.0366, "aerial_won": 1.7831, "total_shots": 0.3227, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.7703, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1329, "tackles": 1.2248, "tackles_won": 0.8382, "clearances": 5.0366, "aerial_won": 1.7831, "total_shots": 0.3227, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"totalClearance", "margin": 0.061194 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.052971 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041435 } ], "others_margin": -0.116179 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6869139671325684, "model_output": 1.6869, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6566 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.033 } ], "others": 0.2513, "total": 1.6869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.656556 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.151979 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065902 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.053192 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032961 } ], "others_margin": 0.251383 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.010777473449707, "model_output": 7.0108, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0999 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0747, "total": 7.0108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.099862 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.06712 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033962 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032618 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022705 } ], "others_margin": 0.074772 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1854, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6847, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.8009, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.2719, "goal_rate": 0.2719, "assists": 0.0022, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "expected_assists": 0.112, "shots_on_target": 0.8132, "big_chances_created": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 21.7226, "total_progression": 111.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.5623, "key_pass": 0.6914, "shots_off_target": 0.8715 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.2727, "goal_rate": 0.2727, "assists": 0.0022, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "expected_assists": 0.112, "shots_on_target": 0.8063, "big_chances_created": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 21.7226, "total_progression": 111.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.5623, "key_pass": 0.6914, "shots_off_target": 0.8715 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9767, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8132, "after": 0.8063 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7433, "after": 0.7374 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.2727, "goal_rate": 0.2727, "assists": 0.0022, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "expected_assists": 0.112, "shots_on_target": 0.8063, "big_chances_created": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 21.7226, "total_progression": 111.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.5623, "key_pass": 0.6914, "shots_off_target": 0.8715 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, 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}, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.2727, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "expected_assists": 0.112, "shots_on_target": 0.8063, "big_chances_created": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 21.7226, "total_progression": 111.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.5623, "key_pass": 0.6914, "shots_off_target": 0.8715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.2727, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "shots_on_target": 0.8063, "big_chances_created": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 21.7226, "total_progression": 111.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.5623, "key_pass": 0.6914, "shots_off_target": 0.8715, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.112, "after": 0.1171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, "fouls_drawn": 1.2342, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.2727, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "expected_assists": 0.1171, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1825, "tackles": 1.3012, "tackles_won": 0.7374, "clearances": 4.5624, "aerial_won": 1.2241, "total_shots": 1.6839, "rating": 7.0108, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 58.2697, "accurate_pass": 48.1248, "duels_won": 3.7349, "total_long_balls": 14.2, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4499, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8167, "crosses_total": 1.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5893, "touches": 75.2311, "possession_lost": 12.9708, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.5209, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8921, 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"away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6398, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083567, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1293, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 15398993, "match_date": "2026-02-18", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0826, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083396, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083260, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3111, "combined_rank_score": 1073.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 568.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.81, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1579.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7077, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Álvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Barreiro", "ranking": 3106 }, { "player_name": "Mattias 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.4628, "totalShots": 0.8255, "expectedGoals": 0.0816, "expectedAssists": 0.073, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2343 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6191835403442383, "model_output": 0.6192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3829 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": 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0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0015 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0495, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.607761 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.102 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043366 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.02685 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025401 } ], "others_margin": -0.092863 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.047389592975378036, "model_output": 0.0474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034987 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025072 } ], "others_margin": 0.071866 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6608587503433228, "model_output": 0.6609, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4659 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0482, "total": 0.6609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.465917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057886 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.024427 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.020436 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.019811 } ], "others_margin": 0.048193 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.707718372344971, "model_output": 6.7077, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0777 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 6.7077, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077747 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036945 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03097 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010587 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.005832 } ], "others_margin": 0.002083 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6212, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "assists": 0.086, "assist_rate": 0.086, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.663, "rating": 6.7077, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6886, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2139, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4002, "combined_rank_score": 1982.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6833, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Junior Sornoza", "ranking": 3997 }, { "player_name": "Tai Baribo", "ranking": 3998 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking": 4003 }, { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 4005 }, { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.164651 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.09318 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07744 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075339 } ], "others_margin": -0.093541 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14922064542770386, "model_output": 0.1492, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 0.1492, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526565 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.24827 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.129237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086496 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055997 } ], "others_margin": 0.006535 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.35292360186576843, "model_output": 0.3529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2209 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0189, "total": 0.3529, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.374174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040395 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01427 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.013097 } ], "others_margin": 0.018814 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683255195617676, "model_output": 6.6833, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6833, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065305 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029531 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019062 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017195 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010073 } ], "others_margin": -0.031632 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3768, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.029, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1164, "total_shots": 0.2754, "rating": 6.6833, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 15.708, "accurate_pass": 12.8038, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1922, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6117, "crosses_total": 1.7226, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 22.7399, "possession_lost": 5.8801, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, 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1.7226, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 22.7399, "possession_lost": 5.8801, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1065, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 16.9819, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { 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"passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049561 } ], "others_margin": -0.175916 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3314260244369507, "model_output": 0.3314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2296 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 0.3314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.411677 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.094336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085586 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045676 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.041208 } ], "others_margin": -0.040881 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6558837890625, "model_output": 6.6559, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.6559, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012808 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009897 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009742 } ], "others_margin": -0.011821 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.091, "goals": 0.1056, "goal_rate": 0.1056, "shots_on_target": 0.3308, "total_shots": 0.8178, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "key_pass": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.487 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1365, "after": 0.0808 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0362 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0755, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "scorer_weight": 0.0903, "squad_weight_total": 1.193, "weight_share": 0.0757, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3047, "runner_up": "Petar Ratkov", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.203 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.0599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391747 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.133858 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092407 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.041522 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.039429 } ], "others_margin": 0.011534 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.619120180606842, "model_output": 0.6191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2162 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": 0.0254, "total": 0.6191, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.382225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.124521 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03793 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037105 } ], "others_margin": 0.041915 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72567081451416, "model_output": 6.7257, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 6.7257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065748 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014058 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013175 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012273 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01188 } ], "others_margin": -0.004488 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.2662, "total_shots": 0.8825, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "key_pass": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 31.84, "total_pass": 11.8884, "accurate_pass": 9.8641, "duels_won": 1.8449, "total_long_balls": 1.447, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7347, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2362, "crosses_total": 1.8176, "crosses_accurate": 0.6101, "touches": 23.8968, "possession_lost": 8.428, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 4.691, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.9505, "won_contest": 0.3786, "ball_recovery": 1.7482, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.401, "fouls_drawn": 0.2145, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "interceptions": 0.2525, "tackles_won": 0.4454, "tackles": 0.9198, "clearances": 0.1073, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.003, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4692, "total_progression": 31.7449, "progressive_carries": 1.1091, "shots_off_target": 0.6163 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.38, "projection_minutes": 31.84, "minutes_scale": 0.797, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0545, "after": 0.0311 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3756, "fifa_rank": 2919.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "scorer_weight": 0.0382, "squad_weight_total": 1.193, "weight_share": 0.032, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3047, "runner_up": "Petar Ratkov", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.203 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.6559, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012808 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009897 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009742 } ], "others_margin": -0.011821 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.091, "goals": 0.1056, "goal_rate": 0.1056, "shots_on_target": 0.3308, "total_shots": 0.8178, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "key_pass": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.487 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1365, "after": 0.0808 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0362 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0755, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "scorer_weight": 0.0903, "squad_weight_total": 1.193, "weight_share": 0.0757, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3047, "runner_up": "Petar Ratkov", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.203 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.2267, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.4986, "rating": 6.6559, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.157, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0755, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "provider_weight": 0.0453, "squad_weight_total": 0.6864, "weight_share": 0.0659, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1138, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0959, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Thiago Fernández": { "player_id": 1201412, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 175, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, 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-0.01188 } ], "others_margin": -0.004488 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.2662, "total_shots": 0.8825, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "key_pass": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 31.84, "total_pass": 11.8884, "accurate_pass": 9.8641, "duels_won": 1.8449, "total_long_balls": 1.447, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7347, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2362, "crosses_total": 1.8176, "crosses_accurate": 0.6101, "touches": 23.8968, "possession_lost": 8.428, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 4.691, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.9505, "won_contest": 0.3786, "ball_recovery": 1.7482, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.401, "fouls_drawn": 0.2145, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "interceptions": 0.2525, "tackles_won": 0.4454, "tackles": 0.9198, "clearances": 0.1073, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.003, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4692, "total_progression": 31.7449, "progressive_carries": 1.1091, "shots_off_target": 0.6163 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.38, "projection_minutes": 31.84, "minutes_scale": 0.797, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0024, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.0988, xG scale 1.0120, xA scale 1.0460, team xA 0.72 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.112, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0988, "squad_xa_sum": 0.691, "team_expected_assists": 0.7228, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.012, "xa_scale": 1.046, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0545, "after": 0.0311 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3756, "fifa_rank": 2919.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "scorer_weight": 0.0382, "squad_weight_total": 1.193, "weight_share": 0.032, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3047, "runner_up": "Petar Ratkov", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.203 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.4921, "rating": 6.7257, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 9.4747, "accurate_pass": 7.8614, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.767, "crosses_total": 1.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.4862, "touches": 19.0451, "possession_lost": 6.7169, "dispossessed": 0.8784, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.5753, "total_contest": 2.3515, "won_contest": 0.3017, "ball_recovery": 1.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.171, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.355, "tackles": 0.7331, "clearances": 0.0855, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0525, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5467, "total_progression": 25.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.8839, "shots_off_target": 0.4912, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.38, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0274, "finishing_factor": 1.2278, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "provider_weight": 0.0295, "squad_weight_total": 0.6864, "weight_share": 0.0429, "creation_factor": 1.0491, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1138, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0959, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.11, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 348, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Maroan Sannadi": { "player_id": 1520799, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 192, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2783, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1328, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2, 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.274854 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079813 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07572 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.061644 } ], "others_margin": -0.380941 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.638876914978027, "model_output": 6.6389, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0979, "total": 6.6389, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.040097 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028958 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016324 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01316 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013097 } ], "others_margin": -0.09796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9947, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2048, "goals": 0.1997, "goal_rate": 0.1997, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.5881, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0939, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.322, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0279, "tackles_won": 0.0738, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1202, "xgot": 0.0977, "offsides": 0.3743, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 0.9903 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9947, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 14, "history_shrink": 0.2632, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2048, "goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1988, "shots_on_target": 0.595, "total_shots": 1.5808, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1202, "xgot": 0.0977, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 0.9903 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 14, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7506, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5881, "after": 1.5808 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2048, "goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1988, "shots_on_target": 0.595, "total_shots": 1.5853, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1202, "xgot": 0.0977, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 0.9903 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2144, "goals": 0.2081, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.1023, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 1.0368, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.047, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "market_value": 1100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "market_value": 1900000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2144 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5853, "after": 1.6598 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9903, "after": 1.0368 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.595, "after": 0.623 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2048, "after": 0.2144 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1988, "after": 0.2081 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1202, "after": 0.1258 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2144, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.1023, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 1.0368, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2783, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.1328, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 1.0368, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9762, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2144, "after": 0.2783 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2783, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.1328, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 1.0368, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9762, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2642, "fifa_rank": 1523.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2783, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"goal_probability": 0.2429, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "scorer_weight": 0.2717, "squad_weight_total": 1.2595, "weight_share": 0.2157, "finishing_factor": 0.9762, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robert Navarro", "weight": 0.3383, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3383, "runner_up": "Maroan Sannadi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2783, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.623, "total_shots": 1.6598, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 67.55, "total_pass": 4.3293, "accurate_pass": 3.068, "duels_won": 2.0176, "total_long_balls": 0.0758, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0479, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2374, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4557, "crosses_total": 0.0935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.564, "possession_lost": 2.7227, "dispossessed": 0.1142, "duels_lost": 1.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.4458, "total_contest": 0.3632, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 0.783, "challenges_lost": 0.0438, "fouls": 0.3205, "fouls_drawn": 0.9791, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0278, "tackles_won": 0.0735, "tackles": 0.0738, "clearances": 0.242, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0253, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.1328, "offsides": 0.3726, "ball_carries": 1.7833, "total_progression": 0.3292, "progressive_carries": 0.1425, "shots_off_target": 1.0368, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.047, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa 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true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2093, "after": 0.2716 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1536, "after": 0.164 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"touches_p90", "margin": 0.027735 } ], "others_margin": -0.007063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0021, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assists": 0.1231, "assist_rate": 0.1231, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1057, "goal_rate": 0.1057, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 1.0396, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 2.0042, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.7206, "tackles_won": 1.0518, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, 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0.3642, "after": 0.3886 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2339, "after": 1.2575 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0042, "after": 1.9895 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7206, "after": 0.706 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0396, "after": 1.0519 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.671, "after": 0.6588 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0518, "after": 1.042 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1231, "after": 0.117 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assists": 0.117, "assist_rate": 0.117, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1004, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "shots_on_target": 0.3886, "total_shots": 1.0639, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 1.9895, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.706, "tackles_won": 1.042, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.4202, "won_contest": 1.1258, "challenges_lost": 0.6126, "fouls": 0.6588, "fouls_drawn": 1.2575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 21.9069, "total_progression": 56.7822, "progressive_carries": 1.5153, "shots_off_target": 0.6753 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assists": 0.117, "assist_rate": 0.117, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1004, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "shots_on_target": 0.3887, "total_shots": 1.0642, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 1.9895, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.706, "tackles_won": 1.042, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.4202, "won_contest": 1.1258, "challenges_lost": 0.6126, "fouls": 0.6588, "fouls_drawn": 1.2575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 21.9069, "total_progression": 56.7822, "progressive_carries": 1.5153, "shots_off_target": 0.6755, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0003, 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"before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3887, "total_shots": 1.0642, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 1.9895, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.706, "tackles_won": 1.042, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.4202, "won_contest": 1.1258, "challenges_lost": 0.6126, "fouls": 0.6588, "fouls_drawn": 1.2575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 21.9069, "total_progression": 56.7822, "progressive_carries": 1.5153, "shots_off_target": 0.6755, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0003, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to 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0.6126, "fouls": 0.6588, "fouls_drawn": 1.2575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0324, "ball_carries": 21.9069, "total_progression": 56.7822, "progressive_carries": 1.5153, "shots_off_target": 0.6755, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0003, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0408, "creation_factor": 1.0424 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0945, "after": 0.1226 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1102, "after": 0.1177 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1177, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1226, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3887, "total_shots": 1.0642, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 1.9895, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.706, "tackles_won": 1.042, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.4202, "won_contest": 1.1258, "challenges_lost": 0.6126, "fouls": 0.6588, "fouls_drawn": 1.2575, "blocks": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1468 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0416 } ], "others": -0.0879, "total": 0.9351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146821 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08559 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062212 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041586 } ], "others_margin": -0.088018 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.034961700439453, "model_output": 7.035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3067, "expected_assists": 0.1381, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.2388, "total_shots": 0.9329, "rating": 7.035, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 46.2493, "accurate_pass": 38.8818, "duels_won": 4.3089, "total_long_balls": 4.2474, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1532, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.8233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4572, "crosses_total": 2.1113, "crosses_accurate": 0.5687, "touches": 58.9246, "possession_lost": 11.2171, "dispossessed": 0.833, "duels_lost": 4.586, "aerial_won": 1.1363, "aerial_lost": 0.5906, "interceptions": 1.2306, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 1.0732, "clearances": 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[ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 0.0377, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.303592 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.182601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.158842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124057 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096359 } ], "others_margin": -0.295349 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1574295461177826, "model_output": 0.1574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.1574, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.306778 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.259947 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143832 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.127854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.073041 } ], "others_margin": -0.104216 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4983450472354889, "model_output": 0.4983, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": -0.1768, "total": 0.4983, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.287998 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058592 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051253 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039419 } ], "others_margin": -0.176773 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792840957641602, "model_output": 6.7928, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0422, "total": 6.7928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041309 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02768 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017333 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010676 } ], "others_margin": -0.042166 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.1566, "total_shots": 0.4956, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.6972, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.8922, "tackles_won": 1.6329, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2092, "fouls_drawn": 1.4026, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.339 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0414)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.06, "assist_rate": 0.06, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4923, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.6972, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.339 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0414, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8832, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9183, "after": 0.9847 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"name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.15559 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.153408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119884 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.068833 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039053 } ], "others_margin": -0.151296 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1519091129302979, "model_output": 1.1519, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4569 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1008 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0653 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0272 } ], "others": 0.0679, "total": 1.1519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.456917 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100785 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065317 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.041067 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.027211 } ], "others_margin": 0.067807 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.126029968261719, "model_output": 7.126, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0679, "total": 7.126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.135556 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.088546 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033105 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032922 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.022427 } ], "others_margin": 0.067946 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9049, "tackles": 1.6555, "tackles_won": 0.9959, "clearances": 2.376, "aerial_won": 0.8826, "total_shots": 1.1492, "rating": 7.126, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6029, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.4855, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, 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"interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 160, "combined_rank_score": 140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 59.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 221.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.107, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aymeric Laporte", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 }, { "player_name": "Temurkhuja Abdukholikov", "ranking": 159 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Castro", "ranking": 161 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Gravenberch", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0602 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.5441, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060238 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034854 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025787 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018967 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.01268 } ], "others_margin": -0.020078 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.106964588165283, "model_output": 7.107, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0962 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": 0.0511, "total": 7.107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096225 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.069865 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.040054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.036268 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022973 } ], "others_margin": 0.051196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9981, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.783, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5441, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2177, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0853, "fouls_drawn": 0.4645, "blocks": 0.2289, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0733, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0035, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9723, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0853, "after": 1.0757 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.783, "after": 0.7891 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0035, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0035, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8243 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0622, "after": 0.0807 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0159, 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160, "fifa_rank": 221.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3603, "crosses_total": 0.2203, "crosses_accurate": 0.0095, "touches": 81.3535, "possession_lost": 5.8913, "dispossessed": 0.0031, "duels_lost": 2.6299, "aerial_lost": 1.1496, "total_contest": 0.1831, "won_contest": 0.1042, "ball_recovery": 4.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 1.0757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "blocks": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 24.8501, "total_progression": 119.5784, "progressive_carries": 1.0962, "key_pass": 0.376, "shots_off_target": 0.4708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8243, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0646, "squad_weight_total": 1.2595, "weight_share": 0.0513, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robert Navarro", "weight": 0.3383, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3383, "runner_up": "Maroan Sannadi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.2324, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 4.5513, "aerial_won": 1.8066, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 87.51, "total_pass": 71.1639, "accurate_pass": 65.8466, "duels_won": 3.6052, "total_long_balls": 6.491, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7468, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1882, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024542 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.024262 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.019247 } ], "others_margin": -0.035669 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.533837616443634, "model_output": 0.5338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.5338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062393 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037874 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025254 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.011071 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008954 } ], "others_margin": -0.0109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.731302738189697, "model_output": 6.7313, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 6.7313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030669 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.028656 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025741 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.021807 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014163 } ], "others_margin": -0.027707 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0561, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.5305, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.6179, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4325, "fouls_drawn": 0.809, "blocks": 0.3971, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.114, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5079, "total_progression": 73.7737, "progressive_carries": 0.7858, "key_pass": 0.4521, "shots_off_target": 0.5304 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 930000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9937, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, 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2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4327, "fouls_drawn": 0.799, "blocks": 0.3971, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1229, "assist_rate": 0.1229, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.114, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5079, "total_progression": 73.7737, "progressive_carries": 0.7858, "key_pass": 0.4521, "shots_off_target": 0.5304 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.649, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4327, "fouls_drawn": 0.799, "blocks": 0.3971, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1229, "assist_rate": 0.1229, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.114, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5079, "total_progression": 73.7737, "progressive_carries": 0.7858, "key_pass": 0.4521, "shots_off_target": 0.5304, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.649, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4327, "fouls_drawn": 0.799, "blocks": 0.3971, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.114, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5079, "total_progression": 73.7737, "progressive_carries": 0.7858, "key_pass": 0.4521, "shots_off_target": 0.5304, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.649, 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"defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.0365 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.649, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4327, "fouls_drawn": 0.799, "blocks": 0.3971, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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1394.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0634, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.6382, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.649, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4327, 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"name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0028, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.018007 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017175 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.010914 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010555 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.00875 } ], "others_margin": -0.000728 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0910162925720215, "model_output": 7.091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { 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"player_name": "Pelle Mattsson", "ranking": 5727 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.397143516617772, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10896106893717145, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9834, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.2436, "goals_prevented": 0.0975, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.0, "accurate_pass": 11.0, "total_long_balls": 27.0, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0, "touches": 42.0, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 7.0, "high_claims": 1.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.0, "possession_lost": 21.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-21T10:26:40.163322+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 5.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 21.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.6, "saves": 4.0, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.8, "save_contribution": 2.1809, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 3.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.2436254024505615, "model_output": 3.2436, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1866 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1112 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0714 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": 0.0826, "total": 3.2436, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.036279 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02342 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.014043 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.01109 } ], "others_margin": 0.025831 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.09750638157129288, "model_output": 0.0975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 0.0975, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056553 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.037366 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029073 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.023052 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012984 } ], "others_margin": -0.007996 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.138465881347656, "model_output": 7.1385, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 7.1385, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055505 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.052482 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.036387 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.022417 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.021322 } ], "others_margin": 0.002149 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9834, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1898, "goals_prevented": 0.0959, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.4854, "accurate_pass": 10.8174, "total_long_balls": 26.5518, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8672, "touches": 41.3028, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8838, "high_claims": 0.9834, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.9668, "possession_lost": 20.6514, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9502 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9834, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1543, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5722, "fifa_rank": 6972.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Dani Vivian": { "player_id": 910978, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 183, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7125, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.3553, "dispossessed": 0.5642, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.27, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083539, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083102, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 0.1468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.244533 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012714 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009185 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008843 } ], "others_margin": -0.046131 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712530136108398, "model_output": 6.7125, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.447 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 0.3258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.752797 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.035481 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.027268 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.022979 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022542 } ], "others_margin": -0.092075 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.137139081954956, "model_output": 2.1371, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9733 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2925 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1647 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0549 } ], "others": 0.109, "total": 2.1371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.858355 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.183557 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.090234 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027432 } ], "others_margin": 0.052414 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9453703761100769, "model_output": 0.9454, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7658 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1289 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 } ], "others": 0.0904, "total": 0.9454, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.804965 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.189031 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.055085 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.044493 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033722 } ], "others_margin": 0.10064 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.24243856966495514, "model_output": 0.2424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2336 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.2424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.233615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.027681 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026996 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015727 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015687 } ], "others_margin": 0.001759 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.972414493560791, "model_output": 6.9724, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": 0.0624, "total": 6.9724, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.048031 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.044034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.042476 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.041897 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02821 } ], "others_margin": 0.062336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4506, "tackles": 0.5367, "tackles_won": 0.3255, "clearances": 2.1352, "aerial_won": 0.9445, "total_shots": 0.2422, "rating": 6.9724, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 58.6472, "accurate_pass": 53.6532, "duels_won": 3.3687, "total_long_balls": 7.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6063, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1986, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0408, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.4546, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2173, "possession_lost": 5.7906, "dispossessed": 0.0491, "duels_lost": 1.8311, "aerial_lost": 0.6669, "total_contest": 0.0845, "won_contest": 0.0845, "ball_recovery": 3.8506, "challenges_lost": 0.2051, "fouls": 0.91, "fouls_drawn": 0.3253, "blocks": 0.1304, "goals": 0.1862, "goal_rate": 0.1862, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.1862, "big_chances_created": 0.0485, "xgot": 0.1226, "ball_carries": 18.3518, "total_progression": 61.7225, "progressive_carries": 0.6066, "key_pass": 0.3632, "shots_off_target": 0.0559 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7100000, "quality_factor": 0.4878, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4465, "tackles": 0.5367, "tackles_won": 0.325, "clearances": 2.1352, "aerial_won": 0.9445, "total_shots": 0.2409, "rating": 6.9724, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 58.6472, "accurate_pass": 53.6532, "duels_won": 3.3687, "total_long_balls": 7.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6063, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1986, 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0.9035 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2647, "tackles": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 0.1927, "clearances": 1.2658, "aerial_won": 0.5599, "total_shots": 0.1432, "rating": 6.9724, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 34.7687, "accurate_pass": 31.8081, "duels_won": 1.9971, "total_long_balls": 4.2118, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4202, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.496, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3121, "crosses_total": 0.2141, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0352, "possession_lost": 3.4329, "dispossessed": 0.0491, "duels_lost": 1.0856, "aerial_lost": 0.6669, "total_contest": 0.0501, "won_contest": 0.0501, "ball_recovery": 2.2828, "challenges_lost": 0.2051, "fouls": 0.5356, "fouls_drawn": 0.1914, "blocks": 0.0773, "goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.11, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "shots_on_target": 0.11, "big_chances_created": 0.0288, "xgot": 0.0727, "ball_carries": 10.8798, "total_progression": 36.5919, "progressive_carries": 0.3596, "key_pass": 0.2153, "shots_off_target": 0.0331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.77, "projection_minutes": 23.23, "minutes_scale": 0.5928, "appearance_probability": 0.221 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2647, "tackles": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 0.1927, "clearances": 1.2658, "aerial_won": 0.5599, "total_shots": 0.1432, "rating": 6.9724, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 34.7687, "accurate_pass": 31.8081, "duels_won": 1.9971, "total_long_balls": 4.2118, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4202, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.496, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4382, 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"tackles": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 0.1927, "clearances": 1.2658, "aerial_won": 0.5599, "total_shots": 0.1432, "rating": 6.9724, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 34.7687, "accurate_pass": 31.8081, "duels_won": 1.9971, "total_long_balls": 4.2118, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4202, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.496, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3121, "crosses_total": 0.2141, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0352, "possession_lost": 3.4329, "dispossessed": 0.0491, "duels_lost": 1.0856, "aerial_lost": 0.6669, "total_contest": 0.0501, "won_contest": 0.0501, "ball_recovery": 2.2828, "challenges_lost": 0.2051, "fouls": 0.5356, "fouls_drawn": 0.1914, "blocks": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.11, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "shots_on_target": 0.11, "big_chances_created": 0.0288, "xgot": 0.0727, "ball_carries": 10.8798, "total_progression": 36.5919, "progressive_carries": 0.3596, "key_pass": 0.2153, "shots_off_target": 0.0331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.221, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.0938, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561379 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169251 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056164 } ], "others_margin": -0.187472 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3282487690448761, "model_output": 0.3282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.3282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02562 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.01705 } ], "others_margin": -0.103732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727317810058594, "model_output": 6.7273, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0891 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 6.7273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089124 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024921 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009331 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007708 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.007256 } ], "others_margin": -0.020321 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.0945, "total_shots": 0.3305, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8541, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7382, "tackles_won": 0.5566, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6932, "fouls_drawn": 0.4123, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0051)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.094, "total_shots": 0.3288, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8498, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7388, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6926, "fouls_drawn": 0.4102, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0051, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3132, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 28.19, "minutes_scale": 0.8762, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "creation_factor": 1.171 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.523 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0248, "after": 0.0168 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0225, "after": 0.0126 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, 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0.0957062840461731, "model_output": 0.0957, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 0.0957, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.669822 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.360816 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.163838 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074364 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051663 } ], "others_margin": 0.03759 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.12402283400297165, "model_output": 0.124, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0108, "total": 0.124, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.31789 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16286 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.136308 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.082129 } ], "others_margin": 0.09147 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2972748875617981, "model_output": 0.2973, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0262, "total": 0.2973, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.704626 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.233245 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16699 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083258 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036841 } ], "others_margin": 0.091967 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0078980922698975, "model_output": 1.0079, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6634 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5037 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0456 } ], "others": 0.1598, "total": 1.0079, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.66337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.503674 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.090131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055414 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.045618 } ], "others_margin": 0.159797 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745558261871338, "model_output": 6.7456, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0905 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 6.7456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090472 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023955 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.013747 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012536 } ], "others_margin": 0.007637 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8109, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assists": 0.1252, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "shots_on_target": 0.2991, "total_shots": 1.0142, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.731, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, "total_contest": 0.9873, "won_contest": 0.4174, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.8535, "fouls_drawn": 0.8977, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.2161, "ball_carries": 7.2899, "total_progression": 29.718, "progressive_carries": 0.7093, "shots_off_target": 0.7151 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0150)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8109, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assists": 0.1233, "assist_rate": 0.1233, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "goals": 0.1229, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "shots_on_target": 0.3005, "total_shots": 1.0146, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1484, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0039, "tackles_won": 0.722, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, "total_contest": 0.9873, "won_contest": 0.4174, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.8427, "fouls_drawn": 0.8921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.2161, "ball_carries": 7.2899, "total_progression": 29.718, "progressive_carries": 0.7093, "shots_off_target": 0.7151 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.015, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3534, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1619, "after": 1.1484 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8535, "after": 0.8427 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.731, "after": 0.722 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8977, "after": 0.8921 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.8 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5834, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.7307, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 31.81, "minutes_scale": 0.7195, "appearance_probability": 0.326 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5834, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.7307, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5834, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.7307, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.326, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5834, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.7307, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, 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"player_id": 1085400, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 43, 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"key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0972, "expected_assists": 1.0516, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 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"opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3375, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0856, "expected_assists": 0.1838, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083539, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.049, "expected_assists": 0.1858, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5302, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0759, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 498, "combined_rank_score": 291.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.984, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8614, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Williams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Fernandes", "ranking": 493 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Soto", "ranking": 494 }, { "player_name": "Jo Jun-Hyun", "ranking": 495 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili", "ranking": 496 }, { "player_name": "Marco de las Sias", "ranking": 497 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Ángel López", "ranking": 499 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hye-Seong", "ranking": 500 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Babi", "ranking": 501 }, { "player_name": "Farrukh Sayfiev", "ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.62, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0123, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (31 historical appearances) to 25.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.091, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.302, "total_shots": 1.1491, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.6961, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.2396, "accurate_pass": 9.8153, "duels_won": 3.4147, "total_long_balls": 0.2132, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9554, "crosses_total": 2.1178, "crosses_accurate": 0.3472, "touches": 26.9825, "possession_lost": 9.7146, "dispossessed": 0.9574, "duels_lost": 4.9477, "aerial_lost": 0.5218, "total_contest": 4.3395, "won_contest": 1.5659, "ball_recovery": 1.5622, "challenges_lost": 0.3542, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.5859, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2208, "tackles_won": 0.4917, "tackles": 0.9313, "clearances": 0.1356, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2448, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 8.8366, "total_progression": 49.4185, "progressive_carries": 2.8484, "shots_off_target": 0.8471 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-21T10:28:50.921329+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1746, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 18.2453, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.342, "accuratePass": 18.001, "totalShots": 2.0547 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09095402806997299, "model_output": 0.091, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0144, "total": 0.091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.600724 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077847 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.046549 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039836 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037702 } ], "others_margin": -0.147579 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.13370147347450256, "model_output": 0.1337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.1337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544897 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.068634 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046889 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.036117 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.032837 } ], "others_margin": -0.053744 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3019939064979553, "model_output": 0.302, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2268 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.302, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549982 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.082598 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077842 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.059088 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.045279 } ], "others_margin": -0.033157 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.149108648300171, "model_output": 1.1491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1284 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1068 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0451 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 1.1491, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.128381 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.106823 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.067638 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.045132 } ], "others_margin": -0.041144 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06677181273698807, "model_output": 0.0668, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.0668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.418486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.187454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087183 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062495 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053528 } ], "others_margin": 0.063316 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.696144163608551, "model_output": 0.6961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2575 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.1106, "total": 0.6961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475488 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136201 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100989 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045453 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.042639 } ], "others_margin": 0.172994 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861361980438232, "model_output": 6.8614, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": 0.108, "total": 6.8614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085623 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038596 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.029464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020475 } ], "others_margin": 0.108038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1353, "goal_rate": 0.1353, "shots_on_target": 0.3057, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.1628, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.079, "after": 0.0636 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.058, "after": 0.0384 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 498, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "scorer_weight": 0.0795, "squad_weight_total": 1.2595, "weight_share": 0.0631, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.62, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robert Navarro", "weight": 0.3383, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3383, "runner_up": "Maroan Sannadi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0307, "squad_weight_total": 0.8679, "weight_share": 0.0354, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.62, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1861, "runner_up": "Peio Canales", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1227, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robert Navarro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Iñaki Williams": { "player_id": 783374, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.148, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0759, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 498, "combined_rank_score": 291.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.984, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8614, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Williams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Fernandes", "ranking": 493 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Soto", "ranking": 494 }, { "player_name": "Jo Jun-Hyun", "ranking": 495 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili", "ranking": 496 }, { "player_name": "Marco de las Sias", "ranking": 497 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Ángel López", "ranking": 499 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hye-Seong", "ranking": 500 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Babi", "ranking": 501 }, { "player_name": "Farrukh Sayfiev", "ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, 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"model_output": 0.1337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.1337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544897 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.068634 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046889 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.036117 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.032837 } ], "others_margin": -0.053744 } }, { 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.418486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.187454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087183 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062495 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053528 } ], "others_margin": 0.063316 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.696144163608551, "model_output": 0.6961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2575 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.1106, "total": 0.6961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475488 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136201 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100989 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045453 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.042639 } ], "others_margin": 0.172994 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861361980438232, "model_output": 6.8614, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": 0.108, "total": 6.8614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085623 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038596 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.029464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020475 } ], "others_margin": 0.108038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1353, "goal_rate": 0.1353, "shots_on_target": 0.3057, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.1628, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, 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"goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.079, "after": 0.0636 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.058, "after": 0.0384 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.3282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02562 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.01705 } ], "others_margin": -0.103732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727317810058594, "model_output": 6.7273, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.0945, "total_shots": 0.3305, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8541, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7382, "tackles_won": 0.5566, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6932, "fouls_drawn": 0.4123, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0051)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.094, "total_shots": 0.3288, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8498, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7388, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6926, "fouls_drawn": 0.4102, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0051, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3132, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 28.19, "minutes_scale": 0.8762, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.9247, xG scale 1.2978, xA scale 1.0679, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "creation_factor": 1.171 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9247, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8989, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2978, "xa_scale": 1.0679, "opponent_lambda": 1.112, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.523 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0248, "after": 0.0168 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0225, "after": 0.0126 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "creation_factor": 1.171, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1561, "fifa_rank": 915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0165, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "creation_factor": 1.171, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0165, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "scorer_weight": 0.0176, "squad_weight_total": 1.2595, "weight_share": 0.0139, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robert Navarro", "weight": 0.3383, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3383, "runner_up": "Maroan Sannadi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2717 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0165, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 1.0455, "creation_factor": 1.171, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "provider_weight": 0.0148, "squad_weight_total": 0.8679, "weight_share": 0.017, "creation_factor": 1.171, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1861, "runner_up": "Peio Canales", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1227, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Robert Navarro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 454, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.434, "xg_contribution": 0.2611, "xg_multiplier": 0.9317, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.566 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Víctor García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.464, "xg_contribution": 0.1259, "xg_multiplier": 0.9765, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "role": "LB", "market_value": 910000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor García (RW) is evenly matched against Yuri Berchiche in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Petar Ratkov", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.2093, "xg_multiplier": 1.0109, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Petar Ratkov (ST) is evenly matched against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.0863, "xg_multiplier": 1.0132, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CDM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.454, "xg_contribution": 0.0356, "xg_multiplier": 1.0059, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Requena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.0885, "xg_multiplier": 1.0706, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Requena (CM) is slightly favored against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.0945, "xg_multiplier": 1.0003, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (LW) is evenly matched against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Maroan Sannadi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "xg_contribution": 0.2144, "xg_multiplier": 1.047, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 } ], "duel_analysis": "Maroan Sannadi (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.214 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "xg_contribution": 0.2093, "xg_multiplier": 1.0013, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.125, "xg_multiplier": 0.9561, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0469, "xg_multiplier": 0.9941, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (CDM) is evenly matched against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.0293, "xg_multiplier": 1.0137, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) is evenly matched against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.474, "home_creative_power": 0.416, "away_creative_power": 0.472, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.488, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.48, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Peio Canales", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Peio Canales", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.99, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.013 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.112, "away_lambda": 1.2, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor García": { "opponents": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Petar Ratkov": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Requena": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi", "Robert Navarro", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi", "Robert Navarro", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Víctor García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Petar Ratkov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Petar Ratkov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Oriol Rey", "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maroan Sannadi": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Víctor García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.052, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.097, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0022, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0004, "home_midfield_factor": 0.99, "away_midfield_factor": 1.013, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4563, "away_avg_quality": 0.4649, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0085, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1732, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1438, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2135, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0306, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8067, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9425 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9331 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9611 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1053 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9076, "result": 1.0031 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.9302 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0022, "result": 0.9322 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.052, "result": 0.9842 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9842, "result": 0.9842, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0306, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9842, "result": 0.9842 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9842 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1688, "result": 1.1528 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.2346, "result": 1.1714 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1714, "result": 1.171, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 1.171, "result": 1.1124, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.112 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.112 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.112, "result": 1.112, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.112 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7194, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.877 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.013, "result": 0.8885 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8796 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8796 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9738, "result": 0.8565 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8656 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0004, "result": 0.866 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.097, "result": 0.963 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.963, "result": 0.963, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0306, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.963, "result": 0.963 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.963 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1527, "result": 1.1157 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.237, "result": 1.1434 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1434, "result": 1.143, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 1.143, "result": 1.2002, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.2, "result": 1.2, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.2 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1688, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1527, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.112, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.2, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1714, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1434, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.112, "final_away_lambda": 1.2 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9076, "attack_index": 0.991, "defense_concede_index": 0.796, "form_multiplier": 0.986, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.32 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9738, "attack_index": 0.828, "defense_concede_index": 1.121, "form_multiplier": 1.014, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.72, "team_ppg": 1.32, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.171, Away 1.143). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.112, Away 1.200 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.112, "away_lambda": 1.2, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.171, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.143 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-21T13:31:37Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }