{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261023", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1489, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1489, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1026, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Alavés", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.292, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1489 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1314 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1204 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1026 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0943 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1204, "0-1": 0.1026, "0-2": 0.0451, "0-3": 0.013, "0-4": 0.0028, "1-0": 0.1489, "1-1": 0.1314, "1-2": 0.0566, "1-3": 0.0164, "1-4": 0.0036, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0943, "2-1": 0.0819, "2-2": 0.0356, "2-3": 0.0103, "2-4": 0.0022, "3-0": 0.0395, "3-1": 0.0343, "3-2": 0.0149, "3-3": 0.0043, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0124, "4-1": 0.0108, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0031, "5-1": 0.0027, "5-2": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4524, "draw": 0.292, "away_win": 0.2556 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3574, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6426, "btts_yes": 0.4165, "btts_no": 0.5835, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4194, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2845 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.98 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.92 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Málaga. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Alavés 5W-3D-2L vs Málaga over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Boyé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Martínez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.257, "away_lambda": 0.869, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1489, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4524, "draw": 0.292, "away_win": 0.2556 }, "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4524, "fair_spread": 0.388, "fair_total": 2.126, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.257, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 0.869, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3574, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4165, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4194, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2845, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.3152, "probability": 0.2704, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Adrián Niño (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2383, "probability": 0.212, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Denis Suárez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.1686, "probability": 0.1552, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.125, "probability": 0.1175, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.126, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 733, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.3, "possession_away_pct": 49.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4524, "script": "Alavés is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.39 goals and fair total 2.13.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Alavés lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Málaga chance creation leans on Adrián Niño against Ville Koski, Nicolás Valentini in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Boyé; bench watchlist: Miguel Rodríguez, Carles Aleñá, Ander Guevara.", "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jens-Lys Cajuste, Joaquín Muñoz, Juan Cruz.", "Assist usage should flow through Ángel Pérez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Alavés tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.06 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Alavés.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Lucas Boyé": { "player_id": 814385, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 183, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3152, "goal_rate": 0.3514, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 12.8673, "dispossessed": 1.8897, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4613, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0129, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2704, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0605, "finishing_factor": 1.094, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421069, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2017, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1505, "expected_assists": 0.032, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2454, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.533, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "expected_assists": 0.2737, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3873, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2629, "combined_rank_score": 921.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8333, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Boyé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Augustine Chidi Kwem", "ranking": 2624 }, { "player_name": "Otabek Ahadov", "ranking": 2625 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Sandoval", "ranking": 2626 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Loftus-Cheek", "ranking": 2627 }, { "player_name": "Edu Expósito", "ranking": 2628 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Duván Zapata", "ranking": 2630 }, { "player_name": "Tosin Adarabioyo", "ranking": 2631 }, { "player_name": "Selton Sanchez", "ranking": 2632 }, { "player_name": "Jung-Min Kim", "ranking": 2633 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Barrenechea", "ranking": 2634 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 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{ "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.6250646710395813, "model_output": 0.6251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1823 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0336 } ], "others": -0.0697, "total": 0.6251, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.237424 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060186 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0573 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2373, "goals": 0.2181, "goal_rate": 0.2181, "shots_on_target": 0.6711, "total_shots": 1.6552, "expected_assists": 0.0504, "key_pass": 0.6224, "rating": 6.7259, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.7921, "accurate_pass": 5.3872, "duels_won": 2.1042, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5825, "crosses_total": 0.4714, "crosses_accurate": 0.2398, "touches": 16.0912, "possession_lost": 6.3779, "dispossessed": 1.0763, "duels_lost": 5.8301, "aerial_lost": 2.1517, "total_contest": 1.4107, "won_contest": 0.2797, "ball_recovery": 1.4451, "challenges_lost": 0.5504, "fouls": 0.9207, "fouls_drawn": 0.1733, "assists": 0.1733, "assist_rate": 0.1733, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0161, "total": 0.3271, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.285579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086478 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.054857 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054653 } ], "others_margin": 0.050088 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9173582792282104, "model_output": 0.9174, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0898 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 0.9174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.300697 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148898 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089777 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.032195 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.023079 } ], "others_margin": 0.037759 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956789970397949, "model_output": 6.9568, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": 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"history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7396, "expected_assists": 0.1578, "assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 0.3263, "total_shots": 0.9152, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7138, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3758, "tackles_won": 0.5792, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6893, "fouls_drawn": 1.1441, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.5889 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7396, "expected_assists": 0.1578, "assists": 0.1311, "assist_rate": 0.1311, "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3285, "total_shots": 0.9138, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7476, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6972, "fouls_drawn": 1.1412, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.5889 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7968, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.7138, "after": 3.7476 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6893, "after": 0.6972 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7396, "expected_assists": 0.1578, "assists": 0.1311, "assist_rate": 0.1311, "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3285, "total_shots": 0.9174, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7476, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, 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19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7476, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6972, "fouls_drawn": 1.1412, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.5889, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Lorenzo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Lorenzo", 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changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7396, "expected_assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1311, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3285, "total_shots": 0.9174, "rating": 6.9568, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7476, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6972, "fouls_drawn": 1.1412, "blocks": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0943, "goal_rate": 0.0943, "shots_on_target": 0.3458, "total_shots": 0.9531, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.7546, "rating": 6.817, "minutes": 81.21, "total_pass": 23.9856, "accurate_pass": 18.9983, "duels_won": 4.7656, "total_long_balls": 2.2109, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2619, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3916, "crosses_total": 3.9768, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 47.4385, "possession_lost": 12.8025, "dispossessed": 0.2977, "duels_lost": 4.5049, "aerial_lost": 0.7776, "total_contest": 1.9511, "won_contest": 1.0048, "ball_recovery": 3.5436, "challenges_lost": 1.1154, "fouls": 1.4916, "fouls_drawn": 1.3701, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "interceptions": 1.0789, 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"totalClearance": 3.3408, "aerialWon": 1.5485, "totalClearance_p90": 3.7018, "totalTackle": 1.387, "defensive_actions": 2.1322 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9040600061416626, "model_output": 0.9041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1139 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.9041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.9124, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125085 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.036904 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030779 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.030406 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.018882 } ], "others_margin": -0.029952 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.150761127471924, "model_output": 4.1508, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4489 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3367 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1698 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1259 } ], "others": 0.1159, "total": 4.1508, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.08334 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.053585 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041661 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.030732 } ], "others_margin": 0.028316 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3974049091339111, "model_output": 1.3974, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1582 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0295 } ], "others": -0.0411, "total": 1.3974, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108125 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036369 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.035424 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021696 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.020315 } ], "others_margin": -0.028912 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7052819132804871, "model_output": 0.7053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1454 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 0.7053, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.14538 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057706 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.048452 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013839 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007536 } ], "others_margin": -0.042572 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.804559707641602, "model_output": 6.8046, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.8046, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019143 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012984 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.011219 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010097 } ], "others_margin": -0.02634 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.4222, "tackles_won": 0.9042, "clearances": 4.1134, "aerial_won": 1.3848, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.2227, "accurate_pass": 30.8633, "duels_won": 3.9059, "total_long_balls": 8.9275, "accurate_long_balls": 3.793, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0073, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8559, "crosses_total": 0.3819, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 54.8856, "possession_lost": 13.3077, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6436, "aerial_lost": 1.0773, "total_contest": 0.2643, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2687, "challenges_lost": 0.7267, "fouls": 0.5754, "fouls_drawn": 0.4156, "blocks": 0.6463, "goals": 0.0, 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"totalShots", "before": 0.699, "after": 0.7132 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8941, "tackles": 1.4222, "tackles_won": 0.9024, "clearances": 4.1134, "aerial_won": 1.3848, "total_shots": 0.7132, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.2227, "accurate_pass": 30.8633, "duels_won": 3.9059, "total_long_balls": 8.9275, "accurate_long_balls": 3.793, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0073, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8559, "crosses_total": 0.3811, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 54.8856, "possession_lost": 13.3077, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6436, "aerial_lost": 1.0773, "total_contest": 0.2643, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2687, "challenges_lost": 0.7267, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 0.4148, "blocks": 0.6463, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 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13.3077, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6436, "aerial_lost": 1.0773, "total_contest": 0.2643, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2687, "challenges_lost": 0.7267, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 0.4148, "blocks": 0.6463, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0451, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "shots_on_target": 0.3104, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0206, "ball_carries": 13.6696, "total_progression": 22.6437, "progressive_carries": 0.191, "key_pass": 0.191, "shots_off_target": 0.388, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, 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"ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.039, "total": 0.3655, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.103122 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047278 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01824 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016692 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.013073 } ], "others_margin": -0.039014 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.76391077041626, "model_output": 6.7639, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": 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"role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1101, "tackles": 1.2985, "tackles_won": 0.714, "clearances": 5.8289, "aerial_won": 1.7868, "total_shots": 0.364, "rating": 6.7639, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 33.4062, "accurate_pass": 29.0349, "duels_won": 2.65, "total_long_balls": 3.3245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2398, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3929, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6748, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3601, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.693, "possession_lost": 4.947, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6743, "aerial_lost": 1.3977, "total_contest": 0.0576, "won_contest": 0.0576, "ball_recovery": 2.257, "challenges_lost": 0.0936, "fouls": 1.2765, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "blocks": 0.8658, "goals": 0.1301, "goal_rate": 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"touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0304, "total": 6.8212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02545 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.023182 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016758 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014843 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.010472 } ], "others_margin": -0.0302 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0899, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3867, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.597, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.413, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8157, "fouls_drawn": 1.3044, "blocks": 0.5287, "goals": 0.0663, "goal_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.3605, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goals": 0.0696, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9624, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.413, "after": 1.403 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.597, "after": 0.6059 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0899, "after": 1.0966 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8157, "after": 0.8218 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goals": 0.0696, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goals": 0.0696, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.0487, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.257, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7645, "team_expected_assists": 0.817, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9946, "xa_scale": 1.0687, "opponent_lambda": 0.869, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.0487, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2146, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.0487, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "scorer_weight": 0.054, "squad_weight_total": 1.3303, "weight_share": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.3448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3448, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2151 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 2.1337, "tackles_won": 1.3854, "clearances": 2.9829, "aerial_won": 0.9558, "total_shots": 0.6059, "rating": 6.8212, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 32.0595, "accurate_pass": 26.1824, "duels_won": 4.7985, "total_long_balls": 4.3151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5604, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8532, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3292, "crosses_total": 1.403, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 52.4245, "possession_lost": 10.0274, "dispossessed": 0.5687, "duels_lost": 3.7967, "aerial_lost": 1.091, "total_contest": 1.1247, "won_contest": 0.3129, "ball_recovery": 3.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.539, "fouls": 0.8218, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "blocks": 0.5287, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.3599, "big_chances_created": 0.0917, "xgot": 0.0487, "ball_carries": 12.1181, "total_progression": 49.8255, "progressive_carries": 1.1806, "key_pass": 0.2194, "shots_off_target": 0.2365, "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0395, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0395, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0322, "squad_weight_total": 0.7993, "weight_share": 0.0403, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1707, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1707, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1469, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ángel Pérez": { "player_id": 1513222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1586, "assist_rate": 0.1635, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1683, "goal_rate": 0.1842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 12.6349, "dispossessed": 0.5512, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2164, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "assists": 0.1597, "assist_rate": 0.1597, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "goals": 0.1772, "goal_rate": 0.1772, "shots_on_target": 0.6117, "total_shots": 1.6455, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 80.84, "total_pass": 21.9213, "accurate_pass": 16.6166, "duels_won": 3.4968, "total_long_balls": 3.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0033, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6134, "crosses_total": 3.9139, "crosses_accurate": 1.1216, "touches": 42.2406, "possession_lost": 12.6349, "dispossessed": 0.5512, "duels_lost": 3.9419, "aerial_won": 0.2623, "aerial_lost": 0.1237, "interceptions": 0.841, "tackles_won": 0.619, "tackles": 0.9088, "clearances": 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1.4431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0033, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6134, "crosses_total": 3.8974, "crosses_accurate": 1.1216, "touches": 42.2406, "possession_lost": 12.6349, "dispossessed": 0.5512, "duels_lost": 3.9419, "aerial_won": 0.2623, "aerial_lost": 0.1237, "interceptions": 0.8461, "tackles_won": 0.6146, "tackles": 0.9088, "clearances": 0.8306, "total_contest": 3.1559, "won_contest": 1.4259, "challenges_lost": 0.6065, "fouls": 0.9354, "fouls_drawn": 0.8902, "blocks": 0.3177, "big_chances_created": 0.608, "big_chances_missed": 0.1473, "xgot": 0.1408, "ball_carries": 10.5337, "total_progression": 58.0889, "progressive_carries": 2.7204, "shots_off_target": 1.0338 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0179, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8982, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.9139, "after": 3.8974 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8996, "after": 0.8902 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.841, "after": 0.8461 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2164, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "assists": 0.1635, "assist_rate": 0.1635, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.6075, "total_shots": 1.6432, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 80.84, "total_pass": 21.9213, "accurate_pass": 16.6166, "duels_won": 3.4968, "total_long_balls": 3.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0033, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6134, "crosses_total": 3.8974, "crosses_accurate": 1.1216, "touches": 42.2406, "possession_lost": 12.6349, "dispossessed": 0.5512, "duels_lost": 3.9419, "aerial_won": 0.2623, "aerial_lost": 0.1237, "interceptions": 0.8461, 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"margin": -0.029095 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.027801 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.020467 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.017981 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015351 } ], "others_margin": 0.00138 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 47, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8969, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0058, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0125)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0125, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8969, "after": 2.9024 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8883, "shots_faced": 8.4, "expected_saves": 2.05, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8883 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8883, "shots_faced": 8.4, "expected_saves": 2.05, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8883, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.04, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.257, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7645, "team_expected_assists": 0.817, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9946, "xa_scale": 1.0687, "opponent_lambda": 0.869, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.4, "after": 8.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.05, "after": 2.04 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.71, "after": 0.7 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8883, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.04, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 194, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9024, "goals_prevented": -0.1042, "rating": 6.9781, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5434, "accurate_pass": 15.5177, "total_long_balls": 21.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 9.7897, "touches": 38.1271, "clearances": 1.3731, "ball_recovery": 9.4278, "high_claims": 1.0805, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4122, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.4995, "possession_lost": 12.2462, "duels_won": 0.5129, "duels_lost": 0.0343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0006, "fouls_drawn": 0.0057, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0713, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7012, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8883, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.04, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3303, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.3448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3448, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2151 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; 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0.159622 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3948499262332916, "model_output": 0.3948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7542 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2159 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.0256, "total": 0.3948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.786364 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.418903 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.091553 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0429, "total": 0.1475, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.221818 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019594 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01871 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014342 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010136 } ], "others_margin": -0.042796 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.587802886962891, "model_output": 6.5878, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 6.5878, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049665 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044981 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018519 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016189 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011945 } ], "others_margin": -0.061282 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1851, "tackles": 0.2929, "tackles_won": 0.1815, "clearances": 0.6287, "aerial_won": 0.2632, "total_shots": 0.0978, "rating": 6.5878, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, 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0.05418189987540245, "model_output": 0.0542, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.0542, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476858 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.131953 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.11609 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088986 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.073855 } ], "others_margin": -0.098112 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1529776006937027, "model_output": 0.153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.47528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076268 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033618 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.027001 } ], "others_margin": 0.045511 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724302768707275, "model_output": 6.7243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0963 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 6.7243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096344 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045537 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027872 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014195 } ], "others_margin": -0.00137 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5121, "expected_assists": 0.0518, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.1526, "total_shots": 0.5257, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, 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18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, 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"assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0733, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.257, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7645, "team_expected_assists": 0.817, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9946, "xa_scale": 1.0687, "opponent_lambda": 0.869, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0332, "after": 0.0228 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0376, "after": 0.0278 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0224, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0224, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "scorer_weight": 0.0245, "squad_weight_total": 1.3303, "weight_share": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.0733, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.3448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3448, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2151 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, 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], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0984 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 6.7081, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098364 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050054 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02393 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016422 } ], "others_margin": -0.013562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2825, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0753, "total_shots": 0.3032, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 12.1199, "accurate_pass": 10.299, "duels_won": 0.8741, "total_long_balls": 1.1445, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8443, "total_own_half_passes": 4.483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.197, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1021, "crosses_total": 0.2711, "crosses_accurate": 0.0611, "touches": 15.6698, "possession_lost": 2.9499, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.8796, "aerial_won": 0.2445, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.301, "tackles_won": 0.1526, "tackles": 0.4284, "clearances": 0.2413, "total_contest": 0.1565, "won_contest": 0.0188, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.1415, "fouls_drawn": 0.1825, "blocks": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.106, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.634, "total_progression": 18.9804, "progressive_carries": 0.362, "shots_off_target": 0.2278 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9971, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 10.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.44, "projection_minutes": 16.09, "minutes_scale": 0.6489, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "creation_factor": 1.0213 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.257, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7645, "team_expected_assists": 0.817, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9946, "xa_scale": 1.0687, "opponent_lambda": 0.869, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3847, "fifa_rank": 2886.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0088, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "scorer_weight": 0.0103, "squad_weight_total": 1.3303, "weight_share": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.3448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3448, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2151 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0115, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0115, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 0.7993, "weight_share": 0.0148, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1707, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1707, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1469, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Toni Martínez": { "player_id": 831253, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.166, "goal_rate": 0.1918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.0732, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0222, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421069, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0954, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo 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"importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0608 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 6.6859, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060801 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013009 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010838 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010451 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008825 } ], "others_margin": -0.000177 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1536, "goals": 0.1795, "goal_rate": 0.1795, "shots_on_target": 0.4722, "total_shots": 1.0819, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.3297, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 23.6, "total_pass": 6.058, "accurate_pass": 3.1755, "duels_won": 3.7113, "total_long_balls": 0.3487, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1808, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.1594, "touches": 11.8078, "possession_lost": 4.6949, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.3943, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.583, "won_contest": 0.1958, "ball_recovery": 1.1208, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8707, "fouls_drawn": 0.8603, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0833, "tackles_won": 0.1875, "tackles": 0.2708, "clearances": 0.3039, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1802, "xgot": 0.0205, "offsides": 0.9629, "ball_carries": 2.2329, "total_progression": 7.6813, "progressive_carries": 0.5403, "shots_off_target": 0.6097 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0113)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1536, "goals": 0.1775, "goal_rate": 0.1775, "shots_on_target": 0.4669, "total_shots": 1.0777, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.3297, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 23.6, "total_pass": 6.058, "accurate_pass": 3.1755, "duels_won": 3.7113, "total_long_balls": 0.3487, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1808, "crosses_total": 0.3976, "crosses_accurate": 0.1594, "touches": 11.8078, "possession_lost": 4.6949, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.3943, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.583, "won_contest": 0.1958, "ball_recovery": 1.1208, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8632, "fouls_drawn": 0.8563, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0824, "tackles_won": 0.1877, "tackles": 0.2708, "clearances": 0.3039, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1802, "xgot": 0.0205, "offsides": 0.9521, "ball_carries": 2.2329, "total_progression": 7.6813, "progressive_carries": 0.5403, "shots_off_target": 0.6097 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0113, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2622, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.9629, "after": 0.9521 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8707, "after": 0.8632 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4722, "after": 0.4669 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.6 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.166, "goals": 0.1918, "goal_rate": 0.1918, "shots_on_target": 0.5045, "total_shots": 1.1645, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3563, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 25.5, "total_pass": 6.5461, "accurate_pass": 3.4313, "duels_won": 4.0103, "total_long_balls": 0.3768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2709, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3565, "crosses_total": 0.4296, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 12.7591, "possession_lost": 5.0732, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.5872, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.2116, "ball_recovery": 1.2111, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9253, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2028, "tackles": 0.2926, "clearances": 0.3284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1947, "xgot": 0.0222, "offsides": 0.9521, "ball_carries": 2.4128, "total_progression": 8.3002, "progressive_carries": 0.5838, "shots_off_target": 0.6588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.5, "projection_minutes": 23.6, "minutes_scale": 1.0806, "appearance_probability": 0.338 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.166, "goals": 0.1918, "goal_rate": 0.1918, "shots_on_target": 0.5045, "total_shots": 1.1645, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3563, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 25.5, "total_pass": 6.5461, "accurate_pass": 3.4313, "duels_won": 4.0103, "total_long_balls": 0.3768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2709, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3565, "crosses_total": 0.4296, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 12.7591, "possession_lost": 5.0732, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.5872, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.2116, "ball_recovery": 1.2111, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9253, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2028, "tackles": 0.2926, "clearances": 0.3284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1947, "xgot": 0.0222, "offsides": 0.9521, "ball_carries": 2.4128, "total_progression": 8.3002, "progressive_carries": 0.5838, "shots_off_target": 0.6588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.166, "goal_rate": 0.1918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5045, "total_shots": 1.1645, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3563, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 25.5, "total_pass": 6.5461, "accurate_pass": 3.4313, "duels_won": 4.0103, "total_long_balls": 0.3768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2709, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3565, "crosses_total": 0.4296, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 12.7591, "possession_lost": 5.0732, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.5872, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.2116, "ball_recovery": 1.2111, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9253, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2028, "tackles": 0.2926, "clearances": 0.3284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1947, "xgot": 0.0222, "offsides": 0.9521, "ball_carries": 2.4128, "total_progression": 8.3002, "progressive_carries": 0.5838, "shots_off_target": 0.6588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.338, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.166, "goal_rate": 0.1918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5045, "total_shots": 1.1645, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3563, "rating": 6.6859, "minutes": 25.5, "total_pass": 6.5461, "accurate_pass": 3.4313, "duels_won": 4.0103, "total_long_balls": 0.3768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2709, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3565, "crosses_total": 0.4296, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 12.7591, "possession_lost": 5.0732, "dispossessed": 0.0833, "duels_lost": 2.5872, "aerial_lost": 1.274, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.2116, "ball_recovery": 1.2111, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9253, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2028, "tackles": 0.2926, "clearances": 0.3284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1947, "xgot": 0.0222, "offsides": 0.9521, "ball_carries": 2.4128, "total_progression": 8.3002, "progressive_carries": 0.5838, "shots_off_target": 0.6588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2078, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.1064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6606, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0466, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0207, "finishing_factor": 1.1399, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6606, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37070150421028, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.56230461382774, "market_value_adjustment": 0.991, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.2121, "total_shots": 0.5582, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.3588, "rating": 6.6606, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1662, "accurate_pass": 1.4966, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4966, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.449, "possession_lost": 2.1166, "dispossessed": 0.7775, "duels_lost": 1.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, 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"name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0034 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.0458, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.575588 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.158822 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087993 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067331 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050437 } ], "others_margin": -0.089948 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05418189987540245, "model_output": 0.0542, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.47528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.242517 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.136143 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.126988 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046678 } ], "others_margin": 0.016939 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5268528461456299, "model_output": 0.5269, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3951 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": 0.0455, "total": 0.5269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076268 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033618 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.027001 } ], "others_margin": 0.045511 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724302768707275, "model_output": 6.7243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0963 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 6.7243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096344 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045537 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027872 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014195 } ], "others_margin": -0.00137 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5121, "expected_assists": 0.0518, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.1526, "total_shots": 0.5257, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3731 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5121, "expected_assists": 0.0518, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.5262, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3731 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3715, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "total_shots": 0.3819, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2707, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.2315 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0248 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 0.3041, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.231452 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03649 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02569 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024795 } ], "others_margin": -0.050715 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708081245422363, "model_output": 6.7081, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2639, xG scale 0.9946, xA scale 1.0687, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1015, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1028, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0068, "total_progression": 12.3154, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.1478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1619, "creation_factor": 1.0213 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.257, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7645, "team_expected_assists": 0.817, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9946, "xa_scale": 1.0687, "opponent_lambda": 0.869, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1833, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0489, "total_shots": 0.1967, "rating": 6.7081, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.864, "accurate_pass": 6.6825, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9593, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1674, "possession_lost": 1.914, "dispossessed": 0.4095, "duels_lost": 0.5707, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6606, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", 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0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0798 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0561, "total": 0.1926, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.280761 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111081 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.056111 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054492 } ], "others_margin": -0.25565 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6324945688247681, "model_output": 0.6325, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2662 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.0955, "total": 0.6325, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.266243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119834 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058558 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.038947 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.024957 } ], "others_margin": -0.095531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.955168724060059, "model_output": 6.9552, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0795 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0255 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 6.9552, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036336 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032908 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032349 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025476 } ], "others_margin": -0.041664 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0542, "goal_rate": 0.0542, "shots_on_target": 0.1911, "total_shots": 0.6276, "rating": 6.9552, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3894, "accurate_pass": 46.1114, "duels_won": 5.353, "total_long_balls": 2.9265, "accurate_long_balls": 2.081, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5492, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5622, "crosses_total": 0.2031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6843, "possession_lost": 7.7607, "dispossessed": 1.223, "duels_lost": 3.9204, "aerial_won": 0.2389, "aerial_lost": 0.3194, "interceptions": 0.6236, "tackles_won": 1.0944, "tackles": 1.5641, "clearances": 0.6093, "total_contest": 2.8808, "won_contest": 2.0832, "challenges_lost": 0.6777, "fouls": 0.9028, "fouls_drawn": 1.4668, "blocks": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6318, "total_progression": 82.5252, "progressive_carries": 2.0523, "shots_off_target": 0.4365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0300)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0709, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0526, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.6088, "rating": 6.9552, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3894, "accurate_pass": 46.1114, "duels_won": 5.353, "total_long_balls": 2.9265, "accurate_long_balls": 2.081, 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{ "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6276, "after": 0.6088 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0944, "after": 1.0761 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6236, "after": 0.634 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2031, "after": 0.197 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1911, "after": 0.1854 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0709, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0526, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.6219, "rating": 6.9552, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 50.3894, "accurate_pass": 46.1114, "duels_won": 5.353, "total_long_balls": 2.9265, "accurate_long_balls": 2.081, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5492, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5622, "crosses_total": 0.197, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.6843, "possession_lost": 7.7607, "dispossessed": 1.223, "duels_lost": 3.9204, "aerial_won": 0.2389, "aerial_lost": 0.3194, "interceptions": 0.634, "tackles_won": 1.0761, "tackles": 1.5641, "clearances": 0.6093, "total_contest": 2.8808, "won_contest": 2.0832, "challenges_lost": 0.6777, "fouls": 0.8757, "fouls_drawn": 1.4665, "blocks": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.6318, "total_progression": 82.5252, "progressive_carries": 2.0523, "shots_off_target": 0.4365 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0709, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.1794, "total_shots": 0.6017, "rating": 6.9552, "minutes": 78.64, 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0.285627 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.157161 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.045671 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.042415 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.037135 } ], "others_margin": 0.035098 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.868531227111816, "model_output": 6.8685, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 6.8685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.053137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023426 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017655 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015852 } ], "others_margin": -0.008607 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8162, "expected_assists": 0.1559, "assists": 0.1399, "assist_rate": 0.1399, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "goals": 0.1502, "goal_rate": 0.1502, "shots_on_target": 0.4139, "total_shots": 1.5958, "rating": 6.8685, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 32.3608, "accurate_pass": 27.2503, "duels_won": 2.2222, "total_long_balls": 3.3167, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9735, "total_own_half_passes": 13.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9117, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3385, "crosses_total": 6.0014, "crosses_accurate": 2.193, "touches": 47.7229, "possession_lost": 10.874, "dispossessed": 0.4034, "duels_lost": 2.65, "aerial_won": 0.3454, "aerial_lost": 0.2871, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 0.5278, "tackles": 0.8079, "clearances": 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"importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 6.9033, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064947 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034384 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019912 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01691 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015001 } ], "others_margin": -0.034049 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0695, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0573, "shots_on_target": 0.1793, "total_shots": 0.6517, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.0972, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 0.2691, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.9623, "tackles_won": 1.5, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.208, "fouls_drawn": 0.7497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1873, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4724 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0417)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0666, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1859, "total_shots": 0.6386, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 0.2691, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.7185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1873, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4724 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0417, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8649, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.208, "after": 1.1721 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7497, "after": 0.7185 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0972, "after": 0.122 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5, "after": 1.524 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6517, "after": 0.6386 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9623, "after": 0.951 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1793, "after": 0.1859 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0666, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1859, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 0.2691, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.7185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1873, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4724 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0666, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.7185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1856, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "skill_edge": -0.0102, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.46, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.46 } ], "xg_override": 0.0507 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2691, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6583, "after": 0.6523 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.7185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1856, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6701, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.5006, "challenges_lost": 0.645, "fouls": 1.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.7185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1373, "ball_carries": 14.4719, "total_progression": 30.0933, "progressive_carries": 0.8011, "shots_off_target": 0.4681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0367, "creation_factor": 1.1488 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0507, "after": 0.0375 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.041 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.698, "interceptions": 0.951, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5276, 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"goal_probability": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "scorer_weight": 0.0389, "squad_weight_total": 0.91, "weight_share": 0.0427, "finishing_factor": 1.0367, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0544, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 77.84, "total_pass": 42.2958, "accurate_pass": 36.1306, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 1.8578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9312, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8373, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2934, "crosses_total": 0.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2477, "possession_lost": 8.7297, "dispossessed": 0.5632, "duels_lost": 3.6021, 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"importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0995 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1022 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1027 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0648 } ], "others": 0.2794, "total": 1.5416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271825 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10559 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.098006 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089669 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.052704 } ], "others_margin": 0.200012 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9263014793396, "model_output": 6.9263, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nicolás Valentini", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9376, "skill_edge": 0.0075, "height_edge": -0.05, "attacker_skill": 0.4781, "defender_skill": 0.4613, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "market_value": 4300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4712 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4515 } ], "xg_override": 0.0947 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6497, "after": 1.5468 }, { 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8713, "tackles": 1.1599, "tackles_won": 0.7031, "clearances": 4.3337, "aerial_won": 1.6, "total_shots": 0.7148, "rating": 6.8684, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.2836, "accurate_pass": 54.9975, "duels_won": 3.438, "total_long_balls": 4.6298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.988, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.1401, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8573, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2957, "possession_lost": 4.7179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5005, "aerial_lost": 1.4263, "total_contest": 0.3339, "won_contest": 0.3339, "ball_recovery": 3.5293, "challenges_lost": 0.5448, "fouls": 0.5294, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.7428, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 21.1122, "total_progression": 90.9231, "progressive_carries": 0.9249, "key_pass": 0.0621, "shots_off_target": 0.6288, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8713, "tackles": 1.1599, "tackles_won": 0.7031, "clearances": 4.3337, "aerial_won": 1.6, "total_shots": 0.7148, "rating": 6.8684, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 59.2836, "accurate_pass": 54.9975, "duels_won": 3.438, "total_long_balls": 4.6298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.988, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.1401, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8573, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2957, "possession_lost": 4.7179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5005, "aerial_lost": 1.4263, "total_contest": 0.3339, "won_contest": 0.3339, "ball_recovery": 3.5293, "challenges_lost": 0.5448, "fouls": 0.5294, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.7428, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.004, "ball_carries": 21.1122, "total_progression": 90.9231, "progressive_carries": 0.9249, "key_pass": 0.0621, "shots_off_target": 0.6288, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8562 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0212, "after": 0.0157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9977, "tackles": 1.2557, "tackles_won": 0.7484, "clearances": 4.9531, "aerial_won": 1.6663, "total_shots": 0.4909, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 48.8187, "accurate_pass": 44.1001, "duels_won": 3.292, "total_long_balls": 4.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0291, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4608, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.4188, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3579, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6813, "crosses_total": 0.2142, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 60.9374, "possession_lost": 5.8199, "dispossessed": 0.129, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_lost": 1.4693, "total_contest": 0.1455, "won_contest": 0.0182, "ball_recovery": 3.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.6405, "fouls": 0.8956, "fouls_drawn": 0.7601, "blocks": 0.9829, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "shots_on_target": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.0218, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 13.9108, "total_progression": 57.9782, "progressive_carries": 0.2989, "key_pass": 0.055, "shots_off_target": 0.4776, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9977, "tackles": 1.2557, "tackles_won": 0.7484, "clearances": 4.9531, "aerial_won": 1.6663, "total_shots": 0.4909, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 48.8187, "accurate_pass": 44.1001, "duels_won": 3.292, "total_long_balls": 4.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0291, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4608, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.4188, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3579, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6813, "crosses_total": 0.2142, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 60.9374, "possession_lost": 5.8199, "dispossessed": 0.129, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_lost": 1.4693, "total_contest": 0.1455, "won_contest": 0.0182, "ball_recovery": 3.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.6405, "fouls": 0.8956, "fouls_drawn": 0.7601, "blocks": 0.9829, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "shots_on_target": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.0218, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 13.9108, "total_progression": 57.9782, "progressive_carries": 0.2989, "key_pass": 0.055, "shots_off_target": 0.4776, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8104 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0329, "after": 0.0243 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3171, "tackles": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.041, "clearances": 2.2779, "aerial_won": 0.7332, "total_shots": 0.3498, "rating": 6.7562, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 47.2621, "accurate_pass": 43.5247, "duels_won": 4.5017, "total_long_balls": 1.8481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7615, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5624, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.9623, "crosses_total": 2.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.174, "touches": 68.3787, "possession_lost": 8.3379, "dispossessed": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 2.8792, "aerial_lost": 0.7259, "total_contest": 1.7745, "won_contest": 0.9322, "ball_recovery": 5.4764, "challenges_lost": 0.5852, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 1.7437, "blocks": 0.7772, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.174, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.002, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.924, "total_progression": 71.0656, "progressive_carries": 2.6457, "key_pass": 0.7006, "shots_off_target": 0.3498, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3171, "tackles": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.041, "clearances": 2.2779, "aerial_won": 0.7332, "total_shots": 0.3498, "rating": 6.7562, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 47.2621, "accurate_pass": 43.5247, "duels_won": 4.5017, "total_long_balls": 1.8481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7615, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5624, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.9623, "crosses_total": 2.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.174, "touches": 68.3787, "possession_lost": 8.3379, "dispossessed": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 2.8792, "aerial_lost": 0.7259, "total_contest": 1.7745, "won_contest": 0.9322, "ball_recovery": 5.4764, "challenges_lost": 0.5852, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 1.7437, "blocks": 0.7772, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.174, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.924, "total_progression": 71.0656, "progressive_carries": 2.6457, "key_pass": 0.7006, "shots_off_target": 0.3498, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0257, "after": 0.0205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9252, "goals_prevented": -0.1026, "rating": 6.9176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7334, "accurate_pass": 25.6232, "total_long_balls": 14.5798, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5886, "touches": 46.6561, "clearances": 1.1174, "ball_recovery": 7.7271, "high_claims": 1.4203, "punches": 1.2576, "aerial_won": 0.2508, "sweeper_actions": 0.6548, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6548, "saves_inside_box": 2.0649, "possession_lost": 10.2749, "duels_won": 0.4919, "duels_lost": 0.1812, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1135, "fouls_drawn": 0.23, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9247, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2308, "shots_faced": 11.7, "expected_saves": 2.86, "high_pressure_saves": 0.98, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9252, "goals_prevented": -0.1026, "rating": 6.9176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7334, "accurate_pass": 25.6232, "total_long_balls": 14.5798, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5886, "touches": 46.6561, "clearances": 1.1174, "ball_recovery": 7.7271, "high_claims": 1.4203, "punches": 1.2576, "aerial_won": 0.2508, "sweeper_actions": 0.6548, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6548, "saves_inside_box": 2.0649, "possession_lost": 10.2749, "duels_won": 0.4919, "duels_lost": 0.1812, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1135, "fouls_drawn": 0.23, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9247, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2308, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.7, "after": 11.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.86, "after": 2.91 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.98, "after": 1.01 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9252, "goals_prevented": -0.1026, "rating": 6.9176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7334, "accurate_pass": 25.6232, "total_long_balls": 14.5798, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5886, "touches": 46.6561, "clearances": 1.1174, "ball_recovery": 7.7271, "high_claims": 1.4203, "punches": 1.2576, "aerial_won": 0.2508, "sweeper_actions": 0.6548, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6548, "saves_inside_box": 2.0649, "possession_lost": 10.2749, "duels_won": 0.4919, "duels_lost": 0.1812, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1135, "fouls_drawn": 0.23, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9247, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2308, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3276, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.9252, "goals_prevented": -0.1026, "rating": 6.9176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7334, "accurate_pass": 25.6232, "total_long_balls": 14.5798, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5886, "touches": 46.6561, "clearances": 1.1174, "ball_recovery": 7.7271, "high_claims": 1.4203, "punches": 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"weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.9252, "goals_prevented": -0.1026, "rating": 6.9176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7334, "accurate_pass": 25.6232, "total_long_balls": 14.5798, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5886, "touches": 46.6561, "clearances": 1.1174, "ball_recovery": 7.7271, "high_claims": 1.4203, "punches": 1.2576, "aerial_won": 0.2508, "sweeper_actions": 0.6548, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6548, "saves_inside_box": 2.0649, "possession_lost": 10.2749, "duels_won": 0.4919, "duels_lost": 0.1812, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1135, "fouls_drawn": 0.23, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9247, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2308, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": 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"fifa_overall": 62.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Lopez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lars-Jørgen Salvesen", "ranking": 9078 }, { "player_name": "Greg Docherty", "ranking": 9079 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wright", "ranking": 9080 }, { "player_name": "Stiven Muhlethaler", "ranking": 9081 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Thompson", "ranking": 9082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Osho", "ranking": 9084 }, { "player_name": "Sam Sutton", "ranking": 9085 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wharton", "ranking": 9086 }, { "player_name": "David Turnbull", "ranking": 9087 }, { "player_name": "Sam Smith", "ranking": 9088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", 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"bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 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3.8427, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1138, "shots_off_target": 0.1016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.257, "tackles": 0.5853, "tackles_won": 0.3596, "clearances": 0.651, "aerial_won": 0.2707, "total_shots": 0.1016, "rating": 6.6254, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.3179, "accurate_pass": 2.9234, "duels_won": 0.3271, "total_long_balls": 0.2078, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1653, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.758, "crosses_total": 0.0429, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.6703, "possession_lost": 2.1047, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9617, "aerial_lost": 0.4377, "total_contest": 0.1138, "won_contest": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.257, "tackles": 0.5853, "tackles_won": 0.3596, "clearances": 0.651, "aerial_won": 0.2707, "total_shots": 0.1016, "rating": 6.6254, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.3179, "accurate_pass": 2.9234, "duels_won": 0.3271, "total_long_balls": 0.2078, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1653, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.758, "crosses_total": 0.0429, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.6703, "possession_lost": 2.1047, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9617, "aerial_lost": 0.4377, "total_contest": 0.1138, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3878, "challenges_lost": 0.3089, "fouls": 0.1925, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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1410734, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 182, "market_value": 1600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080971 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044331 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022539 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013493 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012112 } ], "others_margin": -0.01828 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2233, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.0783, "total_shots": 0.2552, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9884, "total_progression": 4.1874, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.012 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0161, "after": 0.0065 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0271 } ], "others": -0.1271, "total": 0.2075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.321557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04442 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035158 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027092 } ], "others_margin": -0.127174 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.537076950073242, "model_output": 6.5371, "scale": "0-10", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.067, "shots_on_target": 0.245, "total_shots": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "key_pass": 0.4543, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 24.1, "total_pass": 8.7789, "accurate_pass": 6.0793, "duels_won": 1.2717, "total_long_balls": 0.6069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2789, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9149, "crosses_total": 0.6069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.5654, "possession_lost": 5.5709, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.3136, "won_contest": 0.9928, "ball_recovery": 1.2224, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9568, "total_progression": 41.1631, "progressive_carries": 2.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.3703 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.1, "minutes_scale": 1.0495, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0709, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2717, "total_shots": 0.5493, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "key_pass": 0.4092, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.2774, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0709, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2717, "total_shots": 0.5493, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "key_pass": 0.4092, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3991, "total_progression": 35.3797, "progressive_carries": 1.133, "shots_off_target": 0.2774, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9918, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0719, "after": 0.0297 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0469, "after": 0.0209 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0709, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2717, "total_shots": 0.5493, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "key_pass": 0.4092, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 7.5103, "accurate_pass": 6.6048, "duels_won": 0.7226, "total_long_balls": 0.9056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1251, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2196, "crosses_total": 1.7407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4352, "possession_lost": 4.377, "dispossessed": 0.6408, "duels_lost": 1.2576, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9499, "challenges_lost": 0.2248, "fouls": 0.2275, "fouls_drawn": 0.2275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.495, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.008, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { 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"season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4788, "combined_rank_score": 2863.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.665, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 }, { "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking": 4785 }, { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 }, { "player_name": "Auston Trusty", "ranking": 4791 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 4792 }, { "player_name": "Reo Hatate", "ranking": 4793 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", 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}, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.2468, "total_shots": 0.6198, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4576, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 24.1, "total_pass": 8.8426, "accurate_pass": 6.1234, "duels_won": 1.2809, "total_long_balls": 0.6113, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2809, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9505, "crosses_total": 0.6113, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6783, "possession_lost": 5.6113, "dispossessed": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 2.2225, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.3304, "won_contest": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2313, "challenges_lost": 0.3304, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.2809, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.393262 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.098328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.095106 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.048454 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045773 } ], "others_margin": 0.132151 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4576026201248169, "model_output": 0.4576, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2448 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0246, "total": 0.4576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.445978 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.059529 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048821 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046884 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.029915 } ], "others_margin": 0.055472 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664977550506592, "model_output": 6.665, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0349, "total": 6.665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068996 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02183 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021741 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011398 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010678 } ], "others_margin": -0.034938 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.067, "shots_on_target": 0.245, "total_shots": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "key_pass": 0.4543, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 24.1, "total_pass": 8.7789, "accurate_pass": 6.0793, "duels_won": 1.2717, "total_long_balls": 0.6069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2789, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9149, "crosses_total": 0.6069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.5654, "possession_lost": 5.5709, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.3136, "won_contest": 0.9928, "ball_recovery": 1.2224, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9568, "total_progression": 41.1631, "progressive_carries": 2.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.3703 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.1, "minutes_scale": 1.0495, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.008, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 43.1994, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.3886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0599, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0635, "after": 0.0263 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0517, "after": 0.023 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.4768, "rating": 6.665, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.008, 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, "combined_rank_score": 1806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6643, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 }, { "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking": 3803 }, { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 }, { "player_name": "Darío Osorio", "ranking": 3809 }, { "player_name": "Josh Sargent", "ranking": 3810 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajradinović", "ranking": 3811 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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"margin": -0.251313 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.154249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.112963 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.069564 } ], "others_margin": 0.111769 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07872195541858673, "model_output": 0.0787, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 0.0787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.574432 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.386635 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.249342 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.208635 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.126619 } ], "others_margin": -0.128634 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.25658538937568665, "model_output": 0.2566, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3708 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.2566, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370769 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.238969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027578 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02588 } ], "others_margin": -0.026937 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664326190948486, "model_output": 6.6643, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080971 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044331 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022539 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013493 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012112 } ], "others_margin": -0.01828 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2233, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.0783, "total_shots": 0.2552, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9884, "total_progression": 4.1874, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.87 (squad xG sum 1.1744, xG scale 0.7400, xA scale 0.7968, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.869, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1744, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7089, "team_expected_assists": 0.5648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.74, "xa_scale": 0.7968, "opponent_lambda": 1.257, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.012 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0161, "after": 0.0065 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "scorer_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.91, "weight_share": 0.0165, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3156, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1107, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.25, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.427, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0065, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0065, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "provider_weight": 0.0081, "squad_weight_total": 0.5067, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.87, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 405, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "xg_multiplier": 1.0834, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nahuel Tenaglia (LWB) is slightly favored against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Dani Lorenzo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.1692, "xg_multiplier": 1.0584, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Lorenzo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) is evenly matched against Dani Lorenzo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Dani Lorenzo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "xg_multiplier": 1.0623, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Lorenzo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) is slightly favored against Dani Lorenzo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.3169, "xg_multiplier": 1.0129, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.317 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mariano Díaz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 480000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.2317, "xg_multiplier": 0.9765, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mariano Díaz (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.232 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Denis Suárez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dani Lorenzo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.081, "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Lorenzo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denis Suárez (CM) is evenly matched against Dani Lorenzo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0772, "xg_multiplier": 0.953, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.1015, "xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (LM) is evenly matched against Ville Koski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.049, "xg_multiplier": 0.9674, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0507, "xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.233, "xg_contribution": 0.3043, "xg_multiplier": 1.0488, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is evenly matched against Ville Koski and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.304 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "xg_contribution": 0.3221, "xg_multiplier": 0.993, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (ST) is evenly matched against Ville Koski and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.322 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.478, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0947, "xg_multiplier": 0.9376, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ville Koski and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.491, "away_midfield_power": 0.438, "home_creative_power": 0.463, "away_creative_power": 0.438, "home_defensive_power": 0.412, "away_defensive_power": 0.437, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.529, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Denis Suárez", "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Pablo Martínez", "Carlos Dotor" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Martínez", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.008, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.257, "away_lambda": 0.869, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mariano Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Denis Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Martínez", "Chupete", "Adrián Niño", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Antonio Blanco", "Denis Suárez", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Mariano Díaz", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Mariano Díaz", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adam Aznou": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Martínez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0079, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.019, "home_midfield_factor": 1.008, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4538, "away_avg_quality": 0.4549, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0011, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.044, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0157, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0596, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0028, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9662, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0621 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.008, "result": 1.0706 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0706 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2312 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0459, "result": 1.2878 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.3015 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0079, "result": 1.3118 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.005, "result": 1.3168 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3168, "result": 1.3168, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0028, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3168, "result": 1.3168 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3168 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.157, "result": 1.474 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4074, "result": 1.2308 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2308, "result": 1.231, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.231, "result": 1.2573, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.257 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.257 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.257, "result": 1.257, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.257 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9223, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0292 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.996, "result": 1.0251 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0251 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0251 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8494, "result": 0.8707 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9975, "result": 0.8685 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.019, "result": 0.8851 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.021, "result": 0.9061 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9061, "result": 0.9061, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0028, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9061, "result": 0.9061 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9061 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1229, "result": 1.0289 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4123, "result": 0.8883 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8883, "result": 0.888, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.888, "result": 0.869, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.869 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.869 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.869, "result": 0.869, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.869 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.157, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1229, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.257, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.869, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2308, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8883, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.257, "final_away_lambda": 0.869 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0459, "attack_index": 1.024, "defense_concede_index": 1.079, "form_multiplier": 1.026, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.57, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.65, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 0.81 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8494, "attack_index": 0.723, "defense_concede_index": 0.926, "form_multiplier": 0.974, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.11, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.42, "team_ppg": 0.81, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Alavés vs Málaga. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-3-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.231, Away 0.888). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.257, Away 0.869 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 6, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.257, "away_lambda": 0.869, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.231, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.888 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T13:32:03Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }