{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Forest", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261023", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0941, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0704, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0941, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Forest", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2467, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1162 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0941 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0936 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0769 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0704 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0593, "0-1": 0.0941, "0-2": 0.0769, "0-3": 0.0416, "0-4": 0.0169, "0-5": 0.0055, "0-6": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0704, "1-1": 0.1162, "1-2": 0.0936, "1-3": 0.0506, "1-4": 0.0205, "1-5": 0.0067, "1-6": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0433, "2-1": 0.0702, "2-2": 0.057, "2-3": 0.0308, "2-4": 0.0125, "2-5": 0.0041, "2-6": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0176, "3-1": 0.0285, "3-2": 0.0231, "3-3": 0.0125, "3-4": 0.0051, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0053, "4-1": 0.0087, "4-2": 0.007, "4-3": 0.0038, "4-4": 0.0015, "4-5": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0017, "5-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.286, "draw": 0.2467, "away_win": 0.4673 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5398, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4602, "btts_yes": 0.5657, "btts_no": 0.4343, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1975, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2961 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.84, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.9 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Ipswich 2W-1D-7L vs Forest over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dan Ndoye", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Julio Enciso vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 1.22. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.217, "away_lambda": 1.622, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9643, "away_multiplier": 1.0357 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1162, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.286, "draw": 0.2467, "away_win": 0.4673 }, "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4673, "fair_spread": -0.405, "fair_total": 2.839, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.217, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.622, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5398, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5657, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1975, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2961, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Emersonn (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.2458, "probability": 0.2179, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Liam Delap (Forest)", "estimate": 0.3807, "probability": 0.3166, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1418, "probability": 0.1322, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2246, "probability": 0.2012, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.839, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 750, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4673, "script": "Forest is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.41 goals and fair total 2.84.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Forest lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Forest chance creation leans on Liam Delap against Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jack Clarke, Zian Flemming, Azor Matusiwa.", "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Dan Ndoye; bench watchlist: Callum Hudson Odoi, Omari Hutchinson.", "Assist usage should flow through Morgan Gibbs-White; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Forest tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.42 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Forest.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Christian Walton": { "player_id": 198038, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 196, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0249, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 26, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 45, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "punches": 0.8808, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.3929, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5662, "shots_faced": 15.4, "expected_saves": 3.77, "high_pressure_saves": 1.3, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.5872 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2486 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 17, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3758 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3741, "combined_rank_score": 1736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3262.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8995, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 }, { "player_name": "Michel Aebischer", "ranking": 3737 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Borré", "ranking": 3738 }, { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 }, { "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking": 3744 }, { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9873, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9585, "goals_prevented": -0.0252, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.1098, "accurate_pass": 21.5189, "total_long_balls": 26.4849, "accurate_long_balls": 10.8941, "touches": 45.449, "clearances": 1.6696, "ball_recovery": 8.7007, "punches": 0.8921, "aerial_won": 0.2809, "sweeper_actions": 0.3887, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3887, "saves_inside_box": 1.6608, "possession_lost": 15.5909, "duels_won": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4266, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.964 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 15.5909, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8354, "saves": 2.827, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2255, "save_contribution": 2.6222, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 11.964 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.958510398864746, "model_output": 2.9585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 2.9585, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005943 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.005677 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.005613 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004671 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.004637 } ], "others_margin": 0.002342 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.02517971396446228, "model_output": -0.0252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0206, "total": -0.0252, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.021732 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018207 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014574 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010422 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0103 } ], "others_margin": 0.020599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.899464130401611, "model_output": 6.8995, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0723, "total": 6.8995, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.049134 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.041766 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.025561 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.015444 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.014733 } ], "others_margin": -0.072482 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9209, "goals_prevented": -0.0249, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.6385, "accurate_pass": 21.2456, "total_long_balls": 26.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 10.7557, "touches": 44.8718, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.5902, "punches": 0.8808, "aerial_won": 0.2773, "sweeper_actions": 0.3838, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3838, "saves_inside_box": 1.6397, "possession_lost": 15.3929, "duels_won": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8121 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9209, "goals_prevented": -0.0249, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.6385, "accurate_pass": 21.2456, "total_long_balls": 26.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 10.7557, "touches": 44.8718, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.5902, "punches": 0.8808, "aerial_won": 0.2773, "sweeper_actions": 0.3838, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3838, "saves_inside_box": 1.6397, "possession_lost": 15.3929, "duels_won": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8121 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9209, "goals_prevented": -0.0249, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.6385, "accurate_pass": 21.2456, "total_long_balls": 26.1485, "accurate_long_balls": 10.7557, "touches": 44.8718, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.5902, "punches": 0.8808, "aerial_won": 0.2773, "sweeper_actions": 0.3838, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3838, "saves_inside_box": 1.6397, "possession_lost": 15.3929, "duels_won": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8121, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5662, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.5662 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039265 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029801 } ], "others_margin": -0.040043 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.823866367340088, "model_output": 6.8239, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0595, "total": 6.8239, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031539 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027817 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.017152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.014514 } ], "others_margin": -0.059492 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0113, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8658, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assists": 0.1018, "assist_rate": 0.1018, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6997, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 41.0063, "accurate_pass": 35.766, "duels_won": 3.0339, "total_long_balls": 4.7224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8476, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6569, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1091, "crosses_total": 2.1818, "crosses_accurate": 0.3931, "touches": 59.9891, "possession_lost": 10.2221, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4546, "aerial_won": 0.7272, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6383, "tackles_won": 0.568, "tackles": 1.1863, "clearances": 3.5361, "total_contest": 0.3931, "won_contest": 0.3931, "challenges_lost": 1.0615, "fouls": 0.3931, "fouls_drawn": 0.7272, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.144, "ball_carries": 12.9179, "total_progression": 44.9909, "progressive_carries": 1.4546, "shots_off_target": 0.5401 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0113, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8658, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assists": 0.1012, "assist_rate": 0.1012, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1587, "total_shots": 0.6959, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 41.0063, "accurate_pass": 35.766, "duels_won": 3.0339, "total_long_balls": 4.7224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8476, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6569, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1091, "crosses_total": 2.17, "crosses_accurate": 0.3931, "touches": 59.9891, "possession_lost": 10.2221, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4546, "aerial_won": 0.7272, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6294, "tackles_won": 0.5649, "tackles": 1.1863, "clearances": 3.5361, "total_contest": 0.3931, "won_contest": 0.3931, "challenges_lost": 1.0615, "fouls": 0.391, "fouls_drawn": 0.7233, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.144, "ball_carries": 12.9179, "total_progression": 44.9909, "progressive_carries": 1.4546, "shots_off_target": 0.5401 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9822, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.1818, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.0332, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.201226 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.179745 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.1278 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.068075 } ], "others_margin": -0.34199 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5858111381530762, "model_output": 0.5858, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1733 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0527 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0288 } ], "others": -0.1072, "total": 0.5858, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.226842 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06371 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.055561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048657 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040685 } ], "others_margin": -0.168001 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715882301330566, "model_output": 6.7159, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 6.7159, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014608 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013507 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.013359 } ], "others_margin": -0.046185 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2903, "goals": 0.3216, "goal_rate": 0.3216, "shots_on_target": 0.828, "total_shots": 2.2272, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "key_pass": 0.5978, "rating": 6.7159, "minutes": 71.85, "total_pass": 8.7062, "accurate_pass": 5.8895, "duels_won": 5.3932, "total_long_balls": 0.1, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0619, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8873, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.085, "touches": 24.3198, "possession_lost": 9.5301, "dispossessed": 1.1761, "duels_lost": 6.5796, "aerial_lost": 3.6293, "total_contest": 1.3094, "won_contest": 0.6912, "ball_recovery": 0.896, "challenges_lost": 0.6056, "fouls": 0.5505, "fouls_drawn": 1.775, "assists": 0.1384, "assist_rate": 0.1384, "interceptions": 0.1915, "tackles_won": 0.3653, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.494, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2694, "big_chances_missed": 0.471, "xgot": 0.2101, "offsides": 0.4605, "ball_carries": 5.9541, "total_progression": 3.9534, "progressive_carries": 0.5264, "shots_off_target": 1.3992 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2903, "goals": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.329, "shots_on_target": 0.8384, "total_shots": 2.2213, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "key_pass": 0.5978, "rating": 6.7159, "minutes": 71.85, "total_pass": 8.7062, "accurate_pass": 5.8895, "duels_won": 5.3932, "total_long_balls": 0.1, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0619, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8873, "crosses_total": 0.0976, "crosses_accurate": 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}, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.209 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.1335, "total": 0.5845, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26789 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059316 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.05311 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.051771 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049938 } ], "others_margin": -0.20585 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.679448127746582, "model_output": 6.6794, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0746, "total": 6.6795, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049698 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027166 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015917 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010903 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009883 } ], "others_margin": -0.074659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.552)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.204, "goals": 0.2468, "goal_rate": 0.2468, "shots_on_target": 0.5514, "total_shots": 1.3966, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 0.5879, "rating": 6.6794, "minutes": 75.65, "total_pass": 11.8466, "accurate_pass": 8.967, "duels_won": 2.2136, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5907, "crosses_total": 1.2115, "crosses_accurate": 0.2306, "touches": 22.8987, "possession_lost": 6.539, "dispossessed": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 4.5543, "aerial_lost": 1.2856, "total_contest": 0.8219, "won_contest": 0.2306, "ball_recovery": 1.6493, "challenges_lost": 1.3338, "fouls": 1.1475, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0178, 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0.0112, "total": 6.8839, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040526 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022511 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01709 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.015625 } ], "others_margin": 0.011195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2242, "total_contest": 4.6048, "won_contest": 1.1904, "challenges_lost": 0.118, "fouls": 0.6766, "fouls_drawn": 1.4673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4272, "big_chances_missed": 0.1134, "xgot": 0.1822, "ball_carries": 13.6178, "total_progression": 71.7183, "progressive_carries": 3.3558, "shots_off_target": 1.6311 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0246, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0325)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1026, "expected_assists": 0.1255, "assists": 0.1537, "assist_rate": 0.1537, "expected_goals": 0.1781, "goals": 0.2192, "goal_rate": 0.2192, "shots_on_target": 0.7553, "total_shots": 2.4159, "rating": 6.8839, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 22.255, "accurate_pass": 18.1966, "duels_won": 3.6269, "total_long_balls": 1.1769, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4218, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.723, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4736, "crosses_total": 0.7581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 40.188, "possession_lost": 12.2378, "dispossessed": 1.8771, "duels_lost": 6.8201, "aerial_won": 0.1389, "aerial_lost": 0.7339, "interceptions": 0.5298, "tackles_won": 0.431, "tackles": 0.8303, "clearances": 0.2242, "total_contest": 4.6048, "won_contest": 1.1904, "challenges_lost": 0.118, "fouls": 0.6709, "fouls_drawn": 1.4847, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4272, "big_chances_missed": 0.1134, "xgot": 0.1822, "ball_carries": 13.6178, "total_progression": 71.7183, "progressive_carries": 3.3558, "shots_off_target": 1.6311 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0325, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9007, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goalAssist", 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"expected_goals": 0.1486, "goals": 0.1829, "goal_rate": 0.1829, "shots_on_target": 0.6304, "total_shots": 2.0163, "rating": 6.8839, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 22.255, "accurate_pass": 18.1966, "duels_won": 3.6269, "total_long_balls": 1.1769, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4218, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.723, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4736, "crosses_total": 0.7581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 40.188, "possession_lost": 12.2378, "dispossessed": 1.8771, "duels_lost": 6.8201, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7339, "interceptions": 0.5298, "tackles_won": 0.431, "tackles": 0.8303, "clearances": 0.2242, "total_contest": 4.6048, "won_contest": 1.1904, "challenges_lost": 0.118, "fouls": 0.6709, "fouls_drawn": 1.4847, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0946, "xgot": 0.1521, "ball_carries": 13.6178, "total_progression": 71.7183, "progressive_carries": 3.3558, "shots_off_target": 1.3613, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8346, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8346, "skill_edge": -0.0725, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.7022, "defender_skill": 0.8633, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Murillo", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8633 } ], "xg_override": 0.1486 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1389, "after": 0.9 }, { 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1.1769, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4218, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.723, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4736, "crosses_total": 0.7581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 40.188, "possession_lost": 12.2378, "dispossessed": 1.8771, "duels_lost": 6.8201, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7339, "interceptions": 0.5298, "tackles_won": 0.431, "tackles": 0.8303, "clearances": 0.2242, "total_contest": 4.6048, "won_contest": 1.1904, "challenges_lost": 0.118, "fouls": 0.6709, "fouls_drawn": 1.4847, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0946, "xgot": 0.1521, "ball_carries": 13.6178, "total_progression": 71.7183, "progressive_carries": 3.3558, "shots_off_target": 1.3613, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8346, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1026, "expected_assists": 0.1418, "assist_rate": 0.1537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1441, "goal_rate": 0.1829, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6304, "total_shots": 2.0163, "rating": 6.8839, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 22.255, "accurate_pass": 18.1966, "duels_won": 3.6269, "total_long_balls": 1.1769, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4218, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.723, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4736, "crosses_total": 0.7581, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 40.188, "possession_lost": 12.2378, "dispossessed": 1.8771, "duels_lost": 6.8201, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7339, "interceptions": 0.5298, "tackles_won": 0.431, "tackles": 0.8303, "clearances": 0.2242, "total_contest": 4.6048, "won_contest": 1.1904, "challenges_lost": 0.118, "fouls": 0.6709, "fouls_drawn": 1.4847, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0946, "xgot": 0.1475, "ball_carries": 13.6178, "total_progression": 71.7183, "progressive_carries": 3.3558, "shots_off_target": 1.3613, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8346, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1727, "creation_factor": 1.1607 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1255, "after": 0.1418 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8375, "skill_edge": -0.0845, "height_edge": -0.026, "attacker_skill": 0.6685, "defender_skill": 0.8564, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Murillo", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8633 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8495 } ], "xg_override": 0.092 } }, "changes": [ { 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"attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3046, "total_shots": 1.0214, "expected_assists": 0.1367, "key_pass": 1.2516, "rating": 6.8576, "minutes": 73.36, "total_pass": 15.4758, "accurate_pass": 11.1851, "duels_won": 5.9773, "total_long_balls": 1.5697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8882, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1132, "crosses_total": 5.4661, "crosses_accurate": 1.9681, "touches": 39.1371, "possession_lost": 15.282, "dispossessed": 1.948, "duels_lost": 7.3567, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0063, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1209, "after": 0.1367 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080626 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026504 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023646 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01926 } ], "others_margin": -0.045288 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"after": 1.572 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0632, "after": 1.0756 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.257, "after": 1.2683 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.8654, "after": 1.8731 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7003, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.0519, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "expected_goals": 0.03, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "total_shots": 0.5012, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 85.52, "total_pass": 58.1425, "accurate_pass": 53.4354, "duels_won": 4.4313, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7217, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.0004, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.435, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.7335, "possession_lost": 7.9524, "dispossessed": 0.2733, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 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27.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.0004, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.435, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.7335, "possession_lost": 7.9524, "dispossessed": 0.2733, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.572, "tackles_won": 1.8731, "tackles": 3.3681, "clearances": 1.2509, "total_contest": 0.9165, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.073, "fouls": 1.2683, "fouls_drawn": 1.0756, "blocks": 0.4708, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.2638, "total_progression": 50.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.9489, "shots_off_target": 0.3839, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye, Morgan 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"interceptions": 1.572, "tackles_won": 1.8731, "tackles": 3.3681, "clearances": 1.2509, "total_contest": 0.9165, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.073, "fouls": 1.2683, "fouls_drawn": 1.0756, "blocks": 0.4708, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.2638, "total_progression": 50.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.9489, "shots_off_target": 0.3839, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7003, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "total_shots": 0.5012, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 85.52, "total_pass": 58.1425, "accurate_pass": 53.4354, "duels_won": 4.4313, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7217, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.0004, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.435, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.7335, "possession_lost": 7.9524, "dispossessed": 0.2733, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.572, "tackles_won": 1.8731, "tackles": 3.3681, "clearances": 1.2509, "total_contest": 0.9165, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.073, "fouls": 1.2683, "fouls_drawn": 1.0756, "blocks": 0.4708, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044075 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020415 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012203 } ], "others_margin": -0.054792 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7281880378723145, "model_output": 6.7282, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0543, "total": 6.7282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023851 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021081 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013547 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012578 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011585 } ], "others_margin": -0.054349 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0226, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8221, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8728, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7203, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0971, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.8065, "fouls_drawn": 0.387, "blocks": 0.6921, "goals": 0.2388, "goal_rate": 0.2388, "assists": 0.1387, "assist_rate": 0.1387, "expected_goals": 0.2176, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.339, "big_chances_created": 0.4119, "xgot": 0.2242, "ball_carries": 9.9273, "total_progression": 17.1221, "progressive_carries": 0.5113, "key_pass": 0.9261, "shots_off_target": 0.3813 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0226, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7304, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, 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3.0971, "after": 3.0394 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8728, "after": 0.8413 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8065, "after": 0.7774 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.339, "after": 0.3629 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7203, "after": 0.7304 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2388, "after": 0.2482 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8221, "after": 0.8285 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, 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"minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.7774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.6921, "goals": 0.2482, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "assists": 0.1337, "assist_rate": 0.1337, "expected_goals": 0.2176, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "big_chances_created": 0.4119, "xgot": 0.2242, "ball_carries": 9.9273, "total_progression": 17.1221, "progressive_carries": 0.5113, "key_pass": 0.9261, "shots_off_target": 0.3813, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.7774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.6921, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2176, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "big_chances_created": 0.4119, "xgot": 0.2242, "ball_carries": 9.9273, "total_progression": 17.1221, "progressive_carries": 0.5113, "key_pass": 0.9261, "shots_off_target": 0.3813, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.7774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.6921, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.094, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "big_chances_created": 0.4119, "xgot": 0.2174, "ball_carries": 9.9273, "total_progression": 17.1221, "progressive_carries": 0.5113, "key_pass": 0.9261, "shots_off_target": 0.3813, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1143, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2176, "after": 0.211 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0831, "after": 0.094 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.7774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.6921, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.094, 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"tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, "accurate_pass": 22.4363, "duels_won": 2.209, "total_long_balls": 2.7467, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0162, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4201, "crosses_total": 3.0394, "crosses_accurate": 0.7532, "touches": 51.9353, "possession_lost": 13.6323, "dispossessed": 0.9001, "duels_lost": 3.0538, "aerial_lost": 0.8293, "total_contest": 0.5178, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9898, "challenges_lost": 0.2258, "fouls": 0.7774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.6921, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.094, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "big_chances_created": 0.4119, "xgot": 0.2174, "ball_carries": 9.9273, "total_progression": 17.1221, "progressive_carries": 0.5113, "key_pass": 0.9261, "shots_off_target": 0.3813, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1902, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1143, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1902, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "scorer_weight": 0.2351, "squad_weight_total": 1.3594, "weight_share": 0.173, "finishing_factor": 1.1143, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8285, "tackles": 1.3923, "tackles_won": 0.8413, "clearances": 2.7736, "aerial_won": 0.8252, "total_shots": 0.7442, "rating": 6.7282, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9049, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1205, "tackles": 1.2575, "tackles_won": 0.7447, "clearances": 4.8307, "aerial_won": 1.5816, "total_shots": 0.418, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 53.2629, "accurate_pass": 48.3852, "duels_won": 2.9204, "total_long_balls": 3.8021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.577, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6695, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0471, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3382, "crosses_total": 0.1783, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.8572, "possession_lost": 5.4554, "dispossessed": 0.0621, "duels_lost": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.7174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2611 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1853 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1783 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1332 } ], "others": -0.0909, "total": 2.7696, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.417345 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117047 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.075467 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.0676 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.047679 } ], "others_margin": -0.032241 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5654052495956421, "model_output": 0.5654, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": 0.0183, "total": 0.5654, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071399 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061034 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.037816 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025362 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019432 } ], "others_margin": 0.01822 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8795084953308105, "model_output": 6.8795, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 6.8795, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.036332 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019568 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015463 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.011437 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010875 } ], "others_margin": -0.004549 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2268, "tackles": 1.8969, "tackles_won": 1.1461, "clearances": 5.5997, "aerial_won": 2.8167, "total_shots": 0.575, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5705, "accurate_pass": 34.1333, "duels_won": 6.3845, "total_long_balls": 6.089, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3667, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1588, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9744, "crosses_total": 1.0776, "crosses_accurate": 0.7022, "touches": 65.2316, "possession_lost": 12.8348, "dispossessed": 0.2755, "duels_lost": 3.7738, "aerial_lost": 1.8134, "total_contest": 0.8488, "won_contest": 0.5247, "ball_recovery": 4.1554, "challenges_lost": 0.5552, "fouls": 0.9051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7019, "blocks": 0.9429, "goals": 0.1909, "goal_rate": 0.1909, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1909, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 10.8826, "total_progression": 52.9287, "progressive_carries": 1.1568, "key_pass": 0.7453, "shots_off_target": 0.3841 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2006, "tackles": 1.8969, "tackles_won": 1.1228, "clearances": 5.5997, "aerial_won": 2.8167, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5705, "accurate_pass": 34.1333, "duels_won": 6.3845, "total_long_balls": 6.089, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3667, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1588, 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"after": 1.2006 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1461, "after": 1.1228 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9051, "after": 0.9266 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7019, "after": 0.7127 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1909, "after": 0.184 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1909, "after": 0.184 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2006, "tackles": 1.8969, "tackles_won": 1.1228, "clearances": 5.5997, "aerial_won": 2.8167, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5705, "accurate_pass": 34.1333, "duels_won": 6.3845, "total_long_balls": 6.089, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3667, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1588, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9744, "crosses_total": 1.0748, "crosses_accurate": 0.7022, "touches": 65.2316, "possession_lost": 12.8348, "dispossessed": 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"defensive_success_rate": 0.638, "opponent_faced": "James McAtee", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James McAtee", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2006, "tackles": 1.8969, "tackles_won": 1.1228, "clearances": 5.5997, "aerial_won": 2.8167, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5705, "accurate_pass": 34.1333, "duels_won": 6.3845, "total_long_balls": 6.089, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3667, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1588, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9744, "crosses_total": 1.0748, "crosses_accurate": 0.7022, "touches": 65.2316, "possession_lost": 12.8348, "dispossessed": 0.2755, "duels_lost": 3.7738, "aerial_lost": 1.8134, "total_contest": 0.8488, "won_contest": 0.5247, "ball_recovery": 4.1554, "challenges_lost": 0.5552, "fouls": 0.9266, "fouls_drawn": 0.7127, "blocks": 0.9429, "goal_rate": 0.184, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.184, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 10.8826, "total_progression": 52.9287, "progressive_carries": 1.1568, "key_pass": 0.7453, "shots_off_target": 0.3841, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638, "opponent_faced": "James McAtee", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2006, "tackles": 1.8969, "tackles_won": 1.1228, "clearances": 5.5997, "aerial_won": 2.8167, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5705, "accurate_pass": 34.1333, "duels_won": 6.3845, "total_long_balls": 6.089, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3667, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1588, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9744, "crosses_total": 1.0748, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.3024 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2677, "combined_rank_score": 935.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0625, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kjell Scherpen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanislav Shopov", "ranking": 2672 }, { "player_name": "Lim Hyung-jin", "ranking": 2673 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Quaresma", "ranking": 2674 }, { "player_name": "Marco Friedl", "ranking": 2675 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Yong-hee", "ranking": 2676 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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[ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9632, "goals_prevented": -0.0889, "rating": 7.0625, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9959, "accurate_pass": 19.1499, "total_long_balls": 17.0948, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8294, "touches": 45.8638, "clearances": 1.8143, "ball_recovery": 9.5662, "high_claims": 2.0464, "punches": 0.96, "aerial_won": 0.8544, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 1.6802, "possession_lost": 12.846, "duels_won": 1.0471, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 12.846, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8672, "saves": 3.7071, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0273, "save_contribution": 3.0288, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.5718 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9631500244140625, "model_output": 2.9632, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.136 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.0203, "total": 2.9632, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047436 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.019214 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.014294 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008451 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007919 } ], "others_margin": 0.006849 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08894488960504532, "model_output": -0.0889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": -0.062, "total": -0.0889, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048448 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.027874 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.018552 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017188 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016049 } ], "others_margin": -0.06227 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.062451362609863, "model_output": 7.0625, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 7.0625, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.070493 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032617 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024857 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.020869 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012347 } ], "others_margin": 0.000347 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9803, "goals_prevented": -0.0895, "rating": 7.0625, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 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1.7169, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.945144 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.119495 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059711 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041657 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.016251 } ], "others_margin": 0.017432 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6313648223876953, "model_output": 0.6314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7936 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 0.6314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.85079 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.051768 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04362 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.024255 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023666 } ], "others_margin": -0.030875 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1414380967617035, "model_output": 0.1414, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1938 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0482, "total": 0.1414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.193826 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051802 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017961 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011694 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009952 } ], "others_margin": -0.048267 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747035980224609, "model_output": 6.747, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 6.747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016815 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015935 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012878 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.00896 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008417 } ], "others_margin": -0.015098 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3396, "tackles": 0.5216, "tackles_won": 0.283, "clearances": 1.7396, "aerial_won": 0.6397, "total_shots": 0.1433, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 44.7601, "accurate_pass": 39.8203, "duels_won": 4.2347, "total_long_balls": 3.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 29.7953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.599, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2213, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.4724, "possession_lost": 5.3557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.27, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.8811, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.8568, "fouls_drawn": 1.0914, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2097, "total_progression": 27.5052, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4706, "shots_off_target": 0.1433 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3249, "tackles": 0.5216, "tackles_won": 0.2837, "clearances": 1.7396, "aerial_won": 0.6397, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 44.7601, "accurate_pass": 39.8203, "duels_won": 4.2347, "total_long_balls": 3.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 29.7953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.599, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2213, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.4724, "possession_lost": 5.3557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.27, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.8811, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.8283, "fouls_drawn": 1.0614, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2097, "total_progression": 27.5052, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4706, "shots_off_target": 0.1433 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0914, "after": 1.0614 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8568, "after": 0.8283 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0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7883, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2561, "tackles": 0.4112, "tackles_won": 0.2236, "clearances": 1.3713, "aerial_won": 0.5043, "total_shots": 0.113, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2561, "tackles": 0.4112, "tackles_won": 0.2236, "clearances": 1.3713, "aerial_won": 0.5043, "total_shots": 0.113, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.23, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2561, "tackles": 0.4112, "tackles_won": 0.2236, "clearances": 1.3713, "aerial_won": 0.5043, "total_shots": 0.113, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3849, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Cédric Kipré": { "player_id": 886802, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 196, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3451, "combined_rank_score": 1448.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2678.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 }, { "player_name": "Iván Romero", "ranking": 3447 }, { "player_name": "Josh Acheampong", "ranking": 3448 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Yates", "ranking": 3449 }, { "player_name": "Scott McKenna", "ranking": 3450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 3453 }, { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 }, { "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking": 3456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,700,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.4, "tackles": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "clearances": 2.5, "aerial_won": 2.1, "duels_won": 5.2, "total_pass": 42.0, "accurate_pass": 33.0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0, "crosses_total": 0.8, "crosses_accurate": 0.4, "touches": 58.0, 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{ "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 0.0731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.634447 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.289828 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.179422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.09776 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.048505 } ], "others_margin": -0.245851 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2501722574234009, "model_output": 0.2502, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": -0.1429, "total": 0.2502, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331794 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.191796 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032833 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026688 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.020727 } ], "others_margin": -0.142885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6998209953308105, "model_output": 6.6998, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0811 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.055, "total": 6.6998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081084 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044438 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.026879 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021157 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.0165 } ], "others_margin": -0.055048 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, 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"won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2133, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.318, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.6588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045131 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016699 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011363 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.009662 } ], "others_margin": -0.037805 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.555)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2268, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0236, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goals": 0.0313, "goal_rate": 0.0313, "shots_on_target": 0.0587, "total_shots": 0.2513, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.1364, "accurate_pass": 11.1364, "duels_won": 1.0124, "total_long_balls": 2.0248, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0248, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.062, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.1736, "possession_lost": 1.0124, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0124, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0372, "total_progression": 6.6024, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1926 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12800000, "quality_factor": 0.5548, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.44, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1809, "appearance_probability": 0.52 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.52 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0234, "after": 0.0118 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0171, "after": 0.0101 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3215, "fifa_rank": 2200.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "goal_rate": 0.037, "scorer_weight": 0.014, "squad_weight_total": 1.3594, "weight_share": 0.0103, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "provider_weight": 0.0117, "squad_weight_total": 0.8906, "weight_share": 0.0132, "creation_factor": 1.161, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jack Clarke": { "player_id": 921005, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0696, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.6395, "dispossessed": 0.5505, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0529, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.9055, "accuratePass": 12.4845, "totalShots": 0.4873 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.060243360698223114, "model_output": 0.0602, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0939 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.0602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.642905 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 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"total": 0.2133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096442 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068196 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.063361 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.045281 } ], "others_margin": -0.212057 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5502524375915527, "model_output": 0.5503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1471 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.0572, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331685 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119648 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085749 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06021 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.036517 } ], "others_margin": 0.155726 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4737072288990021, "model_output": 0.4737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2371 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.029, "total": 0.4737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428477 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.036102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034145 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025986 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.025021 } ], "others_margin": 0.063376 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.69464111328125, "model_output": 6.6946, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0736 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0577, "total": 6.6946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073558 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021312 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012515 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011548 } ], "others_margin": -0.057802 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0572, "shots_on_target": 0.2172, "total_shots": 0.5604, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.4825, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 11.9922, "accurate_pass": 8.9287, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 0.9644, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4618, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5531, "crosses_total": 1.3584, "crosses_accurate": 0.2716, "touches": 16.8608, "possession_lost": 4.9724, "dispossessed": 0.5505, "duels_lost": 1.6036, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0185, "challenges_lost": 0.5505, "fouls": 0.2309, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.2716, "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles_won": 0.1963, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.3196, "big_chances_created": 0.3514, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.123, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.4109, "total_progression": 56.4254, "progressive_carries": 2.5804, "shots_off_target": 0.3432 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.2203, "total_shots": 0.5661, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.4825, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 11.9922, "accurate_pass": 8.9287, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 0.9644, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4618, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5531, "crosses_total": 1.3531, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1308, "goals": 0.1819, "goal_rate": 0.1819, "shots_on_target": 0.3964, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.2852, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 17.45, "total_pass": 4.3262, "accurate_pass": 2.7913, "duels_won": 0.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6719, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3295, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0549, "touches": 7.88, "possession_lost": 2.6, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 2.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.1942, "won_contest": 0.0895, "ball_recovery": 0.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9365, "fouls_drawn": 0.1227, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.076, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1238, "clearances": 0.1053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0512, "xgot": 0.3435, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.281, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.4 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goals": 0.2712, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.02, "projection_minutes": 17.45, "minutes_scale": 1.4909, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goals": 0.2712, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.195, "after": 0.1119 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0204, "after": 0.0137 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184754 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.10265 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072109 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.038032 } ], "others_margin": -0.306486 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2132609486579895, "model_output": 0.2133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0504, "total": 0.2133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.096442 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068196 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.063361 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.045281 } ], "others_margin": -0.212057 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5502524375915527, "model_output": 0.5503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1471 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.0572, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331685 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119648 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085749 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06021 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.036517 } ], "others_margin": 0.155726 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4737072288990021, "model_output": 0.4737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2371 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.029, "total": 0.4737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428477 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.036102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034145 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025986 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.025021 } ], "others_margin": 0.063376 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.69464111328125, "model_output": 6.6946, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0736 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0577, "total": 6.6946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073558 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021312 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012515 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011548 } ], "others_margin": -0.057802 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0572, "shots_on_target": 0.2172, "total_shots": 0.5604, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.4825, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 11.9922, "accurate_pass": 8.9287, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 0.9644, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4618, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5531, "crosses_total": 1.3584, "crosses_accurate": 0.2716, "touches": 16.8608, "possession_lost": 4.9724, "dispossessed": 0.5505, "duels_lost": 1.6036, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0185, "challenges_lost": 0.5505, "fouls": 0.2309, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.2716, "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles_won": 0.1963, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.3196, "big_chances_created": 0.3514, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.123, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.4109, "total_progression": 56.4254, "progressive_carries": 2.5804, "shots_off_target": 0.3432 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.2203, "total_shots": 0.5661, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.4825, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 11.9922, "accurate_pass": 8.9287, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 0.9644, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4618, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5531, "crosses_total": 1.3531, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1308, "goals": 0.1819, "goal_rate": 0.1819, "shots_on_target": 0.3964, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.2852, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 17.45, "total_pass": 4.3262, "accurate_pass": 2.7913, "duels_won": 0.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6719, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3295, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0549, "touches": 7.88, "possession_lost": 2.6, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 2.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.1942, "won_contest": 0.0895, "ball_recovery": 0.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9365, "fouls_drawn": 0.1227, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.076, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1238, "clearances": 0.1053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0512, "xgot": 0.3435, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.281, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.4 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goals": 0.2712, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.02, "projection_minutes": 17.45, "minutes_scale": 1.4909, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goals": 0.2712, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.195, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.5121, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.195, "after": 0.1119 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0204, "after": 0.0137 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3238, "fifa_rank": 1811.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "scorer_weight": 0.1399, "squad_weight_total": 1.3594, "weight_share": 0.1029, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.2712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.591, "total_shots": 1.4903, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "key_pass": 0.4252, "rating": 6.6505, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.4498, "accurate_pass": 4.1615, "duels_won": 1.0081, "total_long_balls": 0.4905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.473, "crosses_total": 0.3799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 11.748, "possession_lost": 3.8763, "dispossessed": 0.3819, "duels_lost": 3.3998, "aerial_lost": 0.9333, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.1334, "ball_recovery": 1.3141, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3962, "fouls_drawn": 0.1829, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1133, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1846, "clearances": 0.157, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0763, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.1541, "ball_carries": 1.9098, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0135, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.011, "squad_weight_total": 0.8906, "weight_share": 0.0123, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Azor Matusiwa": { "player_id": 856495, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 173, "market_value": 12800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3215, "combined_rank_score": 1165.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2200.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6588, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro Núñez", "ranking": 3210 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Schwäbe", "ranking": 3211 }, { "player_name": "Moi Gómez", "ranking": 3212 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Henrichs", "ranking": 3213 }, { "player_name": "Harvey Elliott", "ranking": 3214 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking": 3220 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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-0.0451 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.6588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045131 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016699 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011363 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.009662 } ], "others_margin": -0.037805 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.555)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2268, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0236, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goals": 0.0313, "goal_rate": 0.0313, "shots_on_target": 0.0587, "total_shots": 0.2513, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.1364, "accurate_pass": 11.1364, "duels_won": 1.0124, "total_long_balls": 2.0248, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0248, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.062, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.1736, "possession_lost": 1.0124, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0124, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0372, "total_progression": 6.6024, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1926 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12800000, "quality_factor": 0.5548, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.44, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1809, "appearance_probability": 0.52 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2552, xG scale 0.9696, xA scale 1.1308, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.217, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2552, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6996, "team_expected_assists": 0.7911, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9696, "xa_scale": 1.1308, "opponent_lambda": 1.622, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.52 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0234, "after": 0.0118 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0171, "after": 0.0101 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3215, "fifa_rank": 2200.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "goal_rate": 0.037, "scorer_weight": 0.014, "squad_weight_total": 1.3594, "weight_share": 0.0103, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2678, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0.2968, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 13.1508, "accurate_pass": 13.1508, "duels_won": 1.1955, "total_long_balls": 2.3911, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1732, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9776, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7374, "possession_lost": 1.1955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.1955, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5866, "total_progression": 7.7967, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2274, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "finishing_factor": 1.1853, "creation_factor": 1.161, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.0279, "provider_weight": 0.0117, "squad_weight_total": 0.8906, "weight_share": 0.0132, "creation_factor": 1.161, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { 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"contribution": 0.1968 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0629 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 0.7086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.254086 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074407 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043812 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.031568 } ], "others_margin": -0.016618 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842862606048584, "model_output": 6.8429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0724, "total": 6.8429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057305 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055665 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.028117 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.027139 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021244 } ], "others_margin": -0.072402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3335, "goals": 0.2996, "goal_rate": 0.2996, "shots_on_target": 0.8977, "total_shots": 2.3408, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.759, "fouls_drawn": 1.376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.248, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.514, "xgot": 0.1415, "offsides": 0.3336, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.4431 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3335, "goals": 0.2991, "goal_rate": 0.2991, "shots_on_target": 0.8962, "total_shots": 2.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.514, "xgot": 0.1415, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.4431 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8927, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3335, "goals": 0.2991, "goal_rate": 0.2991, "shots_on_target": 0.8962, "total_shots": 2.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.514, "xgot": 0.1415, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.4431 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3611, "goals": 0.3238, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1532, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "skill_edge": 0.0542, "height_edge": 0.002, "attacker_skill": 0.7641, "defender_skill": 0.6436, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "market_value": 10300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5652 } ], "xg_override": 0.3611 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3423, "after": 2.536 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4431, "after": 1.5624 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8962, "after": 0.9703 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.514, "after": 0.5565 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3335, "after": 0.3611 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2991, "after": 0.3238 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1415, "after": 0.1532 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3611, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1532, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3807, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1616, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9093, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3611, "after": 0.3807 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0629, "after": 0.0751 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3807, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1616, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9093, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3075, "fifa_rank": 1435.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3807, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1616, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9093, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3166, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "scorer_weight": 0.3462, "squad_weight_total": 1.6318, "weight_share": 0.2121, "finishing_factor": 0.9093, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.3646, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3646, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3462 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3807, "goal_rate": 0.3238, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9703, "total_shots": 2.536, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "key_pass": 0.7157, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 80.34, "total_pass": 12.8633, "accurate_pass": 8.5503, "duels_won": 4.7639, "total_long_balls": 0.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0271, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.008, "crosses_total": 0.3687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0991, "possession_lost": 9.3128, "dispossessed": 1.3556, "duels_lost": 6.628, "aerial_lost": 2.541, "total_contest": 1.9985, "won_contest": 1.4308, "ball_recovery": 1.6223, "challenges_lost": 0.4048, "fouls": 1.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.3737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5255, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5565, "xgot": 0.1616, "offsides": 0.333, "ball_carries": 8.1165, "total_progression": 36.3909, "progressive_carries": 2.3121, "shots_off_target": 1.5624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Issa Diop", 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6.812, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 6.812, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054442 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017574 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.017029 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01621 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012976 } ], 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"expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2471, "after": 0.2616 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.3498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8519, "total_shots": 2.2419, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.8888, "rating": 6.812, "minutes": 68.84, "total_pass": 11.5378, "accurate_pass": 9.0562, "duels_won": 3.0077, "total_long_balls": 0.7164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4014, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9463, "crosses_total": 0.9242, "crosses_accurate": 0.109, "touches": 25.899, "possession_lost": 8.2401, "dispossessed": 1.0672, "duels_lost": 4.6173, "aerial_lost": 0.7436, "total_contest": 1.9138, "won_contest": 0.9675, "ball_recovery": 2.2137, "challenges_lost": 0.7974, "fouls": 1.076, "fouls_drawn": 1.138, "assist_rate": 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rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3364, "goal_rate": 0.3498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8519, "total_shots": 2.2419, "expected_assists": 0.1079, "key_pass": 0.8888, "rating": 6.812, "minutes": 68.84, "total_pass": 11.5378, "accurate_pass": 9.0562, "duels_won": 3.0077, "total_long_balls": 0.7164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4014, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9463, "crosses_total": 0.9242, "crosses_accurate": 0.109, "touches": 25.899, "possession_lost": 8.2401, "dispossessed": 1.0672, "duels_lost": 4.6173, "aerial_lost": 0.7436, "total_contest": 1.9138, "won_contest": 0.9675, "ball_recovery": 2.2137, "challenges_lost": 0.7974, "fouls": 1.076, "fouls_drawn": 1.138, "assist_rate": 0.0071, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2107, "tackles_won": 0.257, "tackles": 0.5663, "clearances": 0.586, 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35.0329, "accurate_pass": 27.7485, "duels_won": 5.0813, "total_long_balls": 4.4634, "accurate_long_balls": 2.003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1182, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6303, "crosses_total": 5.8884, "crosses_accurate": 1.6111, "touches": 63.28, "possession_lost": 15.8902, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 4.2305, "aerial_lost": 1.1741, "total_contest": 1.1329, "won_contest": 0.3052, "ball_recovery": 5.0638, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.0242, "fouls_drawn": 1.4585, "blocks": 0.3632, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0373, "assist_rate": 0.0373, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "expected_assists": 0.1288, "shots_on_target": 0.293, "big_chances_created": 0.2663, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 14.7324, "total_progression": 41.3857, "progressive_carries": 1.3899, "key_pass": 1.3678, "shots_off_target": 1.0917 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.7646, "aerialWon": 1.3395, "totalClearance_p90": 2.833, "totalTackle": 2.0209, "defensive_actions": 2.9837 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0526028871536255, "model_output": 1.0526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0705, "total": 1.0526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041028 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.02891 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.019674 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.017759 } ], "others_margin": 0.069341 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.0222973823547363, "model_output": 2.0223, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1925 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1003 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0823 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0632 } ], "others": 0.1396, "total": 2.0223, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130325 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.0617 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.04795 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.034257 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034165 } ], "others_margin": 0.071537 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3294215202331543, "model_output": 1.3294, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0895 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0363 } ], "others": 0.1281, "total": 1.3294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134834 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.088487 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.061474 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036252 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.030713 } ], "others_margin": 0.101385 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.689746856689453, "model_output": 2.6897, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.405 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3984 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1981 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.106 } ], "others": -0.1771, "total": 2.6897, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.125852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123907 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.075204 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064511 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036308 } ], "others_margin": -0.063707 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9279137253761292, "model_output": 0.9279, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1406 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1283 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0479 } ], "others": -0.289, "total": 0.9279, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096665 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.08782 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.056892 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.042886 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.038628 } ], "others_margin": -0.271072 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3847088813781738, "model_output": 1.3847, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5296 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0731 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0336 } ], "others": 0.1418, "total": 1.3847, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.529622 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.093494 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.07309 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.038153 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.033625 } ], "others_margin": 0.141785 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815756320953369, "model_output": 6.8158, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0245, "total": 6.8158, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.052534 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014492 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011358 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011082 } ], "others_margin": -0.024564 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0592, "tackles": 2.035, "tackles_won": 1.3378, "clearances": 2.7067, "aerial_won": 0.9338, "total_shots": 1.3934, "rating": 6.8158, "minutes": 89.33, "total_pass": 35.2536, "accurate_pass": 27.9233, "duels_won": 5.1133, "total_long_balls": 4.4915, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0156, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.3737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7099, "crosses_total": 5.9255, "crosses_accurate": 1.6212, "touches": 63.6787, "possession_lost": 15.9903, "dispossessed": 0.5272, "duels_lost": 4.2572, "aerial_lost": 1.1815, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.3071, "ball_recovery": 5.0957, "challenges_lost": 0.7794, "fouls": 1.0307, "fouls_drawn": 1.4677, "blocks": 0.3655, "goals": 0.0245, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 18.3737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7099, "crosses_total": 5.9082, "crosses_accurate": 1.6212, "touches": 63.6787, "possession_lost": 15.9903, "dispossessed": 0.5272, "duels_lost": 4.2572, "aerial_lost": 1.1815, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.3071, "ball_recovery": 5.0957, "challenges_lost": 0.7794, "fouls": 1.026, "fouls_drawn": 1.4635, "blocks": 0.3655, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.085, "expected_assists": 0.1296, "shots_on_target": 0.2922, "big_chances_created": 0.268, "xgot": 0.0215, "ball_carries": 14.8252, "total_progression": 41.6464, "progressive_carries": 1.3987, "key_pass": 1.3764, "shots_off_target": 1.0986 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9926, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3378, "after": 1.3567 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 5.9255, "after": 5.9082 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0592, "after": 1.0498 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3934, "after": 1.3855 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0498, "tackles": 2.035, "tackles_won": 1.3567, "clearances": 2.7067, "aerial_won": 0.9338, "total_shots": 1.3908, "rating": 6.8158, "minutes": 89.33, "total_pass": 35.2536, "accurate_pass": 27.9233, "duels_won": 5.1133, "total_long_balls": 4.4915, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0156, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.3737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7099, "crosses_total": 5.9082, "crosses_accurate": 1.6212, "touches": 63.6787, "possession_lost": 15.9903, "dispossessed": 0.5272, "duels_lost": 4.2572, "aerial_lost": 1.1815, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.3071, 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], "others_margin": -0.120097 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20020020008087158, "model_output": 0.2002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0704 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0314 } ], "others": -0.067, "total": 0.2002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.24315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.189329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.155339 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.111018 } ], "others_margin": -0.288656 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0832418203353882, "model_output": 1.0832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.129 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.034 } ], "others": -0.1989, "total": 1.0832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.307948 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065882 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05181 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.033966 } ], "others_margin": -0.198992 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.854359149932861, "model_output": 6.8544, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0664 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0568, "total": 6.8544, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.066367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027461 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018358 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011199 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009244 } ], "others_margin": -0.05672 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.570)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.691, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.2018, "total_shots": 1.0921, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 85.32, "total_pass": 33.9839, "accurate_pass": 28.4133, "duels_won": 6.3391, "total_long_balls": 3.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9925, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4208, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.2995, "possession_lost": 7.5548, "dispossessed": 0.8472, "duels_lost": 4.6072, "aerial_won": 0.5854, "aerial_lost": 0.7201, "interceptions": 1.1501, "tackles_won": 2.5141, "tackles": 3.9908, "clearances": 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.4802 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0281 } ], "others": 0.1915, "total": 1.2862, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.480221 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.073704 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067517 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.029662 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028056 } ], "others_margin": 0.191408 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.879049301147461, "model_output": 6.879, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 6.8791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06258 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014486 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.014356 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01243 } ], "others_margin": -0.008106 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2309, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.118, "clearances": 5.3031, "aerial_won": 1.6374, "total_shots": 1.3027, "rating": 6.879, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 47.164, "accurate_pass": 39.9144, "duels_won": 4.0799, "total_long_balls": 7.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2536, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7309, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3803, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5342, "crosses_total": 0.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0868, "possession_lost": 8.8267, "dispossessed": 0.3831, "duels_lost": 3.7744, "aerial_lost": 1.1775, "total_contest": 1.0952, "won_contest": 0.5488, "ball_recovery": 4.1574, "challenges_lost": 0.5808, "fouls": 1.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2156, "blocks": 0.5176, "goals": 0.0042, 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1.3027, "after": 1.2931 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2309, "after": 1.2222 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2219, "after": 1.2133 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.118, "after": 1.1106 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4344, "after": 0.4293 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2222, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.1106, "clearances": 5.3031, "aerial_won": 1.6374, "total_shots": 1.2976, "rating": 6.879, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 47.164, "accurate_pass": 39.9144, "duels_won": 4.0799, "total_long_balls": 7.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2536, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7309, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3803, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5342, "crosses_total": 0.0249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0868, "possession_lost": 8.8267, "dispossessed": 0.3831, "duels_lost": 3.7744, 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0.692, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2222, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.1106, "clearances": 5.3031, "aerial_won": 1.6374, "total_shots": 1.2976, "rating": 6.879, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 47.164, "accurate_pass": 39.9144, "duels_won": 4.0799, "total_long_balls": 7.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2536, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7309, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3803, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5342, "crosses_total": 0.0249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0868, "possession_lost": 8.8267, "dispossessed": 0.3831, "duels_lost": 3.7744, "aerial_lost": 1.1775, "total_contest": 1.0952, "won_contest": 0.5488, "ball_recovery": 4.1574, "challenges_lost": 0.5808, "fouls": 1.2133, "fouls_drawn": 0.2188, "blocks": 0.5176, "goal_rate": 0.0042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "shots_on_target": 0.4293, "big_chances_created": 0.0039, "xgot": 0.0299, "ball_carries": 13.778, "total_progression": 53.4448, "progressive_carries": 0.7328, "key_pass": 0.8362, "shots_off_target": 0.8683, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2222, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.1106, "clearances": 5.3031, "aerial_won": 1.6374, "total_shots": 1.2976, "rating": 6.879, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 47.164, "accurate_pass": 39.9144, "duels_won": 4.0799, "total_long_balls": 7.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2536, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7309, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3803, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5342, "crosses_total": 0.0249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0868, "possession_lost": 8.8267, "dispossessed": 0.3831, "duels_lost": 3.7744, "aerial_lost": 1.1775, "total_contest": 1.0952, "won_contest": 0.5488, "ball_recovery": 4.1574, "challenges_lost": 0.5808, "fouls": 1.2133, "fouls_drawn": 0.2188, "blocks": 0.5176, "goal_rate": 0.0042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1202, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.4293, "big_chances_created": 0.0039, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 13.778, "total_progression": 53.4448, "progressive_carries": 0.7328, "key_pass": 0.8362, "shots_off_target": 0.8683, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0443, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.884, "tackles": 1.283, "tackles_won": 0.7949, "clearances": 4.8047, "aerial_won": 2.4054, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 87.43, "total_pass": 39.5259, "accurate_pass": 34.6286, "duels_won": 4.6215, "total_long_balls": 3.761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8664, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7786, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.3726, "possession_lost": 5.0987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.794, "aerial_lost": 2.4026, "total_contest": 0.2012, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 5.7514, "challenges_lost": 0.2012, "fouls": 0.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2012, "blocks": 1.0443, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1888, "total_progression": 42.1167, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5216 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0443, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.884, "tackles": 1.283, "tackles_won": 0.7949, "clearances": 4.8047, "aerial_won": 2.4054, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 87.43, "total_pass": 39.5259, "accurate_pass": 34.6286, "duels_won": 4.6215, "total_long_balls": 3.761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8664, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7786, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.3726, "possession_lost": 5.0987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.794, "aerial_lost": 2.4026, "total_contest": 0.2012, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 5.7514, "challenges_lost": 0.2012, "fouls": 0.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2012, "blocks": 1.0443, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1888, "total_progression": 42.1167, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5216 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.884, "tackles": 1.283, "tackles_won": 0.7949, "clearances": 4.8047, "aerial_won": 2.4054, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 87.43, "total_pass": 39.5259, "accurate_pass": 34.6286, "duels_won": 4.6215, "total_long_balls": 3.761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8664, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7786, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.3726, "possession_lost": 5.0987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.794, "aerial_lost": 2.4026, "total_contest": 0.2012, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 5.7514, "challenges_lost": 0.2012, "fouls": 0.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2012, "blocks": 1.0443, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1888, "total_progression": 42.1167, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5216, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.884, "tackles": 1.283, "tackles_won": 0.7949, "clearances": 4.8047, "aerial_won": 2.4054, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 87.43, "total_pass": 39.5259, "accurate_pass": 34.6286, "duels_won": 4.6215, "total_long_balls": 3.761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8664, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7786, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.3726, "possession_lost": 5.0987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.794, "aerial_lost": 2.4026, "total_contest": 0.2012, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 5.7514, "challenges_lost": 0.2012, "fouls": 0.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2012, "blocks": 1.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1888, "total_progression": 42.1167, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5216, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.884, "tackles": 1.283, "tackles_won": 0.7949, "clearances": 4.8047, "aerial_won": 2.4054, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 87.43, "total_pass": 39.5259, "accurate_pass": 34.6286, "duels_won": 4.6215, "total_long_balls": 3.761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8664, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7786, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8498, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.3726, "possession_lost": 5.0987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.794, "aerial_lost": 2.4026, "total_contest": 0.2012, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 5.7514, "challenges_lost": 0.2012, "fouls": 0.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2012, "blocks": 1.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1888, "total_progression": 42.1167, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5216, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8929 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.129956 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05915 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031301 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.021416 } ], "others_margin": 0.0412 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8145180940628052, "model_output": 1.8145, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1522 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0981 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0964 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0438 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 1.8145, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104224 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.06188 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.057266 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.024012 } ], "others_margin": -0.016706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4671441316604614, "model_output": 0.4671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0186, "total": 0.4671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058944 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015884 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011934 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010682 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009626 } ], "others_margin": -0.018614 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.694869518280029, "model_output": 6.6949, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 6.6949, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018161 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01212 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.010677 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010379 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.008609 } ], "others_margin": -0.035567 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, "progressive_carries": 0.4222, "key_pass": 0.3381, "shots_off_target": 0.4049 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 14, "history_shrink": 0.2632, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, "progressive_carries": 0.4222, "key_pass": 0.3381, "shots_off_target": 0.4049 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, "progressive_carries": 0.4222, "key_pass": 0.3381, "shots_off_target": 0.4049, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, "progressive_carries": 0.4222, "key_pass": 0.3381, "shots_off_target": 0.4049, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, "progressive_carries": 0.4222, "key_pass": 0.3381, "shots_off_target": 0.4049, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8803 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, 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"interceptions": 0.7535, "tackles": 1.424, "tackles_won": 0.8638, "clearances": 5.2532, "aerial_won": 1.8405, "total_shots": 0.4738, "rating": 6.6949, "minutes": 83.55, "total_pass": 30.0415, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 4.3359, "total_long_balls": 3.7121, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3048, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7278, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0399, "crosses_total": 0.5247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.417, "possession_lost": 6.9893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4544, "aerial_lost": 1.2006, "total_contest": 0.7157, "won_contest": 0.4825, "ball_recovery": 2.1464, "challenges_lost": 1.0492, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.9391, "blocks": 0.2267, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.0689, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 8.0566, "total_progression": 33.3125, 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"ranking": 1269 }, { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9332, "goals_prevented": 0.04, "rating": 6.9726, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 26.4251, "accurate_pass": 14.738, "total_long_balls": 17.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3833, "touches": 34.7559, "clearances": 0.9682, "ball_recovery": 7.6418, "high_claims": 0.4112, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2479, "sweeper_actions": 0.6217, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6217, "saves_inside_box": 1.8142, "possession_lost": 11.8926, "duels_won": 0.3573, "duels_lost": 0.1267, "total_contest": 0.0566, "won_contest": 0.0566, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4534 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9237, "goals_prevented": 0.04, "rating": 6.9726, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 26.4251, "accurate_pass": 14.738, "total_long_balls": 17.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3833, "touches": 34.7559, "clearances": 0.9682, "ball_recovery": 7.6418, "high_claims": 0.4112, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2479, "sweeper_actions": 0.6217, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6217, "saves_inside_box": 1.8142, "possession_lost": 11.8926, "duels_won": 0.3573, "duels_lost": 0.1267, "total_contest": 0.0566, "won_contest": 0.0566, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0494, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4534 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9962, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9332, "after": 2.9237 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9237, "goals_prevented": 0.04, "rating": 6.9726, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 26.4251, "accurate_pass": 14.738, "total_long_balls": 17.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3833, "touches": 34.7559, "clearances": 0.9682, "ball_recovery": 7.6418, "high_claims": 0.4112, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2479, "sweeper_actions": 0.6217, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6217, "saves_inside_box": 1.8142, "possession_lost": 11.8926, "duels_won": 0.3573, "duels_lost": 0.1267, "total_contest": 0.0566, "won_contest": 0.0566, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0494, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4534 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9237, "goals_prevented": 0.04, "rating": 6.9726, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 26.4251, "accurate_pass": 14.738, "total_long_balls": 17.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3833, "touches": 34.7559, "clearances": 0.9682, "ball_recovery": 7.6418, "high_claims": 0.4112, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2479, "sweeper_actions": 0.6217, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6217, "saves_inside_box": 1.8142, "possession_lost": 11.8926, "duels_won": 0.3573, "duels_lost": 0.1267, "total_contest": 0.0566, "won_contest": 0.0566, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0494, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4534, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2622, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2622 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9237, "goals_prevented": 0.04, "rating": 6.9726, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 26.4251, "accurate_pass": 14.738, "total_long_balls": 17.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3833, "touches": 34.7559, "clearances": 0.9682, "ball_recovery": 7.6418, "high_claims": 0.4112, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2479, "sweeper_actions": 0.6217, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6217, "saves_inside_box": 1.8142, "possession_lost": 11.8926, "duels_won": 0.3573, "duels_lost": 0.1267, "total_contest": 0.0566, "won_contest": 0.0566, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0494, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4534, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2622, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-03", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-30", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-22", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.6359, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8865, "saves": 1.224, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.2745, "save_contribution": 0.4712, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 11.3565 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7980620861053467, "model_output": 2.7981, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0517, "total": 2.7981, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.024454 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.020955 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015752 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.008919 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6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.041718 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026842 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.01712 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.014126 } ], "others_margin": -0.030584 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0642, "rating": 7.0504, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.7026, "accurate_pass": 15.5498, "total_long_balls": 14.5985, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4457, "touches": 28.8434, "clearances": 0.7752, "ball_recovery": 5.0078, "high_claims": 0.4031, "punches": 0.7103, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 1.4499, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9128, "saves_inside_box": 1.4573, "possession_lost": 9.5723, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9934, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4375, "goals_prevented": 0.0101, "rating": 7.0504, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.49, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1574, "appearance_probability": 0.113 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4375, "goals_prevented": 0.0101, "rating": 7.0504, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4375, "goals_prevented": 0.0101, "rating": 7.0504, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.113, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", 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6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0261, "total": 0.1863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228969 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016395 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01449 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.012051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.009545 } ], "others_margin": -0.026321 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80169677734375, "model_output": 6.8017, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 6.8017, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.023287 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019953 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.013797 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012944 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012084 } ], "others_margin": -0.004956 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5437, "tackles": 0.5211, "tackles_won": 0.2938, "clearances": 2.1319, "aerial_won": 1.1398, "total_shots": 0.1874, "rating": 6.8017, "minutes": 27.0, "total_pass": 36.8829, "accurate_pass": 31.0234, "duels_won": 4.4302, "total_long_balls": 5.4117, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0956, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2798, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7435, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4986, "possession_lost": 6.3817, "dispossessed": 0.2372, "duels_lost": 2.6021, "aerial_lost": 0.8225, "total_contest": 0.1466, "won_contest": 0.1466, "ball_recovery": 3.3352, "challenges_lost": 0.4422, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.447, "blocks": 1.1674, "goals": 0.0, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.082, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1443, "combined_rank_score": 596.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", 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"history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.193175864797896, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.23, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0048, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (23 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.505, "tackles": 0.6886, "tackles_won": 0.46, "clearances": 1.1541, "aerial_won": 0.4643, "total_shots": 0.2821, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.5678, "accurate_pass": 27.3604, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.1113, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6857, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0538, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6387, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7216, "crosses_total": 1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.3152, "touches": 59.0169, "possession_lost": 14.5234, "dispossessed": 0.888, "duels_lost": 4.0117, "aerial_lost": 0.8126, "total_contest": 1.6324, "won_contest": 0.958, "ball_recovery": 3.8067, "challenges_lost": 0.7952, "fouls": 0.8833, "fouls_drawn": 1.3166, "blocks": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0165, "expected_assists": 0.068, "shots_on_target": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.4526, "total_progression": 38.8576, "progressive_carries": 0.8412, "key_pass": 0.5521, "shots_off_target": 0.1949 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.4851, "aerialWon": 1.2685, "totalClearance_p90": 3.6689, "totalTackle": 2.3916, "defensive_actions": 3.4821 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5050405859947205, "model_output": 0.505, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4552 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0241, "total": 0.505, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.753012 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060207 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046369 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.037593 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.027304 } ], "others_margin": 0.048869 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6885823607444763, "model_output": 0.6886, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8244 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0335, "total": 0.6886, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.906536 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.053701 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.043397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038623 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.023676 } ], "others_margin": 0.049719 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4599814713001251, "model_output": 0.46, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.485 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 0.46, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.853247 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.061542 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.05652 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.05645 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.036998 } ], "others_margin": 0.03357 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1540621519088745, "model_output": 1.1541, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0133 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0646 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0416 } ], "others": -0.13, "total": 1.1541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886311 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.050292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.036627 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.031862 } ], "others_margin": -0.10671 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.46431049704551697, "model_output": 0.4643, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7423 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0647, "total": 0.4643, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.7676 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.063018 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.057412 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.042373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032153 } ], "others_margin": -0.130462 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28213876485824585, "model_output": 0.2821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2442 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.2821, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.244206 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.031742 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.029495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011272 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.01103 } ], "others_margin": -0.00959 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754601001739502, "model_output": 6.7546, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.7546, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019504 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.015433 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012161 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010899 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009344 } ], "others_margin": -0.023628 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5075, "tackles": 0.6919, "tackles_won": 0.4622, "clearances": 1.1596, "aerial_won": 0.4665, "total_shots": 0.2835, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8875, "fouls_drawn": 1.3229, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.0876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.1958 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0048, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.502, "tackles": 0.6919, "tackles_won": 0.4573, "clearances": 1.1596, "aerial_won": 0.4665, "total_shots": 0.2827, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7291, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8798, "fouls_drawn": 1.3076, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.1958 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3229, "after": 1.3076 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7441, "after": 1.7291 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8875, "after": 0.8798 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5075, "after": 0.502 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3958, "tackles": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.3606, "clearances": 0.9144, "aerial_won": 0.3678, "total_shots": 0.2238, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1544, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7885, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3958, "tackles": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.3606, "clearances": 0.9144, "aerial_won": 0.3678, "total_shots": 0.2238, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1544, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": 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0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 0.1324, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.645241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.233319 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.124483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081753 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.051355 } ], "others_margin": 0.071437 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37544745206832886, "model_output": 0.3754, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.3754, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.440805 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.224864 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045654 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035896 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.021728 } ], "others_margin": 0.012735 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.762756824493408, "model_output": 6.7628, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0268, "total": 6.7628, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074753 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019254 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009373 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008513 } ], "others_margin": 0.026787 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8418, "expected_assists": 0.1082, "assists": 0.091, "assist_rate": 0.091, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "shots_on_target": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0.3786, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.2451 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assists": 0.0811, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assists": 0.0811, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0265, "after": 0.0153 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0964, "after": 0.0629 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.0669, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.574761 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.318651 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.19836 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.180507 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.041813 } ], "others_margin": -0.269014 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32047203183174133, "model_output": 0.3205, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0682, "total": 0.3205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.315342 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.207166 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038678 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.023783 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023179 } ], "others_margin": -0.068276 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72106409072876, "model_output": 6.7211, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0941 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.7211, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094087 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.323, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.0396, "total": 0.5033, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094327 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.082894 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074556 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.058822 } ], "others_margin": 0.082041 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720775604248047, "model_output": 6.7208, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 6.7208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084665 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014403 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.012602 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010975 } ], "others_margin": 0.019655 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "shots_on_target": 0.19, "total_shots": 0.4592, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 21.2, "total_pass": 9.6672, "accurate_pass": 8.4442, "duels_won": 1.0577, "total_long_balls": 0.5605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3035, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9107, "crosses_total": 1.7817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0481, "touches": 15.5989, "possession_lost": 4.7208, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.5413, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.2151, "won_contest": 0.5551, "ball_recovery": 1.3116, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.157, "fouls_drawn": 0.0566, "assists": 0.1084, "assist_rate": 0.1084, "interceptions": 0.174, "tackles_won": 0.1449, "tackles": 0.3796, "clearances": 0.1448, "blocks": 0.0481, "big_chances_created": 0.0481, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 5.5075, "total_progression": 10.5863, "progressive_carries": 1.366, "shots_off_target": 0.2692 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goals": 0.0729, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assists": 0.1353, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.46, "projection_minutes": 21.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2481, "appearance_probability": 0.612 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goals": 0.0729, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assists": 0.1353, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.612 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0557, "after": 0.036 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.0479 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2079, "fifa_rank": 1102.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "scorer_weight": 0.0419, "squad_weight_total": 1.6318, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.3646, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3646, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3462 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3659, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Fulham", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.612 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0557, "after": 0.036 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.0479 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2079, "fifa_rank": 1102.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "scorer_weight": 0.0419, "squad_weight_total": 1.6318, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.3646, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3646, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3462 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2371, "total_shots": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.7208, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.0652, "accurate_pass": 10.5388, "duels_won": 1.3201, "total_long_balls": 0.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6249, "crosses_total": 2.2237, "crosses_accurate": 0.06, "touches": 19.4683, "possession_lost": 5.8918, "dispossessed": 0.5342, "duels_lost": 1.9236, "aerial_lost": 0.1901, "total_contest": 1.5165, "won_contest": 0.6928, "ball_recovery": 1.637, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1959, "fouls_drawn": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2172, "tackles_won": 0.1808, "tackles": 0.4738, "clearances": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.06, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0022, "offsides": 0.0296, "ball_carries": 6.8737, "total_progression": 13.2123, "progressive_carries": 1.7048, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.035, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "finishing_factor": 1.1627, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "assist_rate": 0.1353, "provider_weight": 0.0599, "squad_weight_total": 0.992, "weight_share": 0.0604, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "weight": 0.2177, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2177, "runner_up": "James McAtee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1256, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] }, "Omari Hutchinson": { "player_id": 1090963, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 174, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0594, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1602, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": 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"base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0268, "total": 6.7628, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074753 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019254 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009373 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008513 } ], "others_margin": 0.026787 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8418, "expected_assists": 0.1082, "assists": 0.091, "assist_rate": 0.091, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "shots_on_target": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0.3786, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.2451 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assists": 0.0811, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assists": 0.0811, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.5378, xG scale 1.0548, xA scale 1.1941, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.622, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5378, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8829, "team_expected_assists": 1.0543, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0548, "xa_scale": 1.1941, "opponent_lambda": 1.217, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0265, "after": 0.0153 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0964, "after": 0.0629 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3283, "fifa_rank": 1796.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "scorer_weight": 0.0166, "squad_weight_total": 1.6318, "weight_share": 0.0102, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.3646, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3646, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3462 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7502, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0594, "finishing_factor": 1.0876, "creation_factor": 0.8955, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0811, "provider_weight": 0.0563, "squad_weight_total": 0.992, "weight_share": 0.0568, "creation_factor": 0.8955, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "weight": 0.2177, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2177, "runner_up": "James McAtee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1256, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.62, "expected_assists": 1.05, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 362, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "xg_contribution": 0.1486, "xg_multiplier": 0.8346, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdoul Ouattara", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0522, "xg_multiplier": 0.867, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdoul Ouattara (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €76M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2534, "xg_multiplier": 0.8728, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Murillo and Ousmane Diomande in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.253 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1468, "xg_multiplier": 0.7196, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Murillo and Ousmane Diomande in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.092, "xg_multiplier": 0.8375, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Murillo and Ousmane Diomande in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "xg_contribution": 0.3611, "xg_multiplier": 1.0827, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.674 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.674 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (SS) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.361 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "xg_contribution": 0.3189, "xg_multiplier": 1.0586, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (SS) is evenly matched against Exequiel Palacios and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.319 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.57, "defenders": [ "Christian Walton" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.0622, "xg_multiplier": 1.0276, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (LWB) is evenly matched against Christian Walton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.629, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.0873, "xg_multiplier": 0.9443, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (RWB) is evenly matched against Dara O'Shea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.2594, "xg_multiplier": 1.073, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.259 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.1312, "xg_multiplier": 1.0089, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CM) is evenly matched against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.667, "away_midfield_power": 0.709, "home_creative_power": 0.657, "away_creative_power": 0.765, "home_defensive_power": 0.656, "away_defensive_power": 0.608, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.485, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Abdoul Ouattara", "Julio Enciso", "Exequiel Palacios", "Florentino Luís" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Xaver Schlager", "James McAtee", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Julio Enciso vs Morgan Gibbs-White", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.009 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.217, "away_lambda": 1.622, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Christian Walton": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Florentino Luís": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Emersonn", "Daizen Maeda", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Abdoul Ouattara", "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Daizen Maeda", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Christian Walton", "Florentino Luís" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jair": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Julio Enciso vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 1.22. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1309, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8986, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.955, "home_midfield_factor": 0.999, "away_midfield_factor": 1.009, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.631, "away_avg_quality": 0.7263, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0953, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5261, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5942, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3123, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.192, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1056, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0614, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.693, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8822 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 0.8814 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.9254 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0643 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9998, "result": 1.064 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.0716 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8986, "result": 0.9629 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1309, "result": 1.0938 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0938, "result": 1.0938, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.192, "factor": 0.9386, "pre": 1.0938, "result": 1.0266 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0266 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2074, "result": 1.2344 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.2622 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2622, "result": 1.262, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9643, "pre": 1.262, "result": 1.2169, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.217 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.217 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.217, "result": 1.217, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.217 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2201, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2776 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.009, "result": 1.2891 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.2246 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2246 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9798, "result": 1.1999 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.2127 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.955, "result": 1.1581 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3381 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3381, "result": 1.3381, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.192, "factor": 1.1056, "pre": 1.3381, "result": 1.4795 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4795 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1316, "result": 1.6106 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.5662 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5662, "result": 1.566, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0357, "pre": 1.566, "result": 1.6219, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.622 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.622 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.622, "result": 1.622, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.622 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2074, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1316, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.217, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.622, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2622, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5662, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.217, "final_away_lambda": 1.622 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9998, "attack_index": 1.088, "defense_concede_index": 0.91, "form_multiplier": 1.018, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.58, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 1.32, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9798, "attack_index": 0.772, "defense_concede_index": 1.241, "form_multiplier": 0.982, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.12, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.8, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.32 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Ipswich vs Forest. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.262, Away 1.566). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.217, Away 1.622 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.217, "away_lambda": 1.622, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.262, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.566 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T13:31:11Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }