{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1202, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1202, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0185, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atlético Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.115, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1202 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1163 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0844 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0826 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0787 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0287, "0-1": 0.0185, "0-2": 0.0061, "0-3": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.0826, "1-1": 0.0544, "1-2": 0.0178, "1-3": 0.0039, "1-4": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.1202, "2-1": 0.0787, "2-2": 0.0258, "2-3": 0.0056, "2-4": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.1163, "3-1": 0.0762, "3-2": 0.0249, "3-3": 0.0054, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0844, "4-1": 0.0553, "4-2": 0.0181, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.049, "5-1": 0.0321, "5-2": 0.0105, "5-3": 0.0023, "6-0": 0.0237, "6-1": 0.0155, "6-2": 0.0051, "6-3": 0.0011, "7-0": 0.0098, "7-1": 0.0064, "7-2": 0.0021, "8-0": 0.0036, "8-1": 0.0023, "8-2": 0.0008, "9-0": 0.0012, "9-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8286, "draw": 0.115, "away_win": 0.0564 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6895, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3105, "btts_yes": 0.4543, "btts_no": 0.5457, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5194, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0549 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.98, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 7.03, "GK": 6.98 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.91, "GK": 7.03 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Atlético Madrid 7W-3D-0L vs Deportivo over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Julián Alvarez, Ademola Lookman", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Pablo Barrios vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.36, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.84, "home_lambda": 2.903, "away_lambda": 0.655, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 7, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.05, "away_multiplier": 0.95 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1202, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8286, "draw": 0.115, "away_win": 0.0564 }, "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8286, "fair_spread": 2.248, "fair_total": 3.558, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 2.903, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 0.655, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6895, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4543, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5194, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0549, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ademola Lookman (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.5481, "probability": 0.422, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bil Nsongo (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1647, "probability": 0.1519, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3754, "probability": 0.313, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mario Soriano (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1103, "probability": 0.1044, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.558, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 979, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 54.0, "possession_away_pct": 46.0, "notes": "Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8286, "script": "Atlético Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.25 goals and fair total 3.56.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atlético Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atlético Madrid chance creation leans on Ademola Lookman against Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Atlético Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Julián Alvarez, Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Jonathan David, Alexander Sørloth.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Marc Casadó, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Adama Traoré.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atlético Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.78 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atlético Madrid.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Atlético Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Marc Pubill": { "player_id": 1094106, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 190, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.827, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 7.5381, "dispossessed": 0.2357, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1339, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1664, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0875, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8246, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421071, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 78, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0921, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4462, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2044, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 153, "combined_rank_score": 101.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 64.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.827, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Pubill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 149 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 150 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Méndez", "ranking": 151 }, { "player_name": "Elseid Hysaj", "ranking": 152 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alex Muralha", "ranking": 154 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0151, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 155.0, "goals_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.16, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 26 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.5882352941176471, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8194, "tackles": 1.2791, "tackles_won": 0.8086, "clearances": 2.9068, "aerial_won": 1.365, "total_shots": 0.5198, "rating": 6.827, "minutes": 80.19, "total_pass": 50.614, "accurate_pass": 45.6373, "duels_won": 4.4144, "total_long_balls": 3.8383, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1205, "total_own_half_passes": 29.7513, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.1692, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4681, "crosses_total": 0.718, "crosses_accurate": 0.2122, "touches": 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{ "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3862 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1146 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.059 } ], "others": -0.2402, "total": 2.9068, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.162091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124529 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.103862 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037802 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.01894 } ], "others_margin": -0.079392 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3650182485580444, "model_output": 1.365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 0.5198, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057695 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022179 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012687 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008521 } ], "others_margin": -0.014939 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.827042579650879, "model_output": 6.827, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 6.827, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019239 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018425 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012193 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009412 } ], "others_margin": 0.01014 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8317, "tackles": 1.2984, "tackles_won": 0.8209, "clearances": 2.9507, "aerial_won": 1.3856, "total_shots": 0.5277, "rating": 6.827, "minutes": 80.19, "total_pass": 51.3783, "accurate_pass": 46.3264, "duels_won": 4.4811, "total_long_balls": 3.8963, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 30.2005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.5946, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7319, "crosses_total": 0.7288, "crosses_accurate": 0.2154, "touches": 65.7363, "possession_lost": 7.5381, "dispossessed": 0.2357, "duels_lost": 2.6704, "aerial_lost": 0.9823, "total_contest": 0.3452, "won_contest": 0.2754, "ball_recovery": 2.9129, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.1095, "fouls_drawn": 0.9288, "blocks": 0.3969, "goals": 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"before": 0.8317, "after": 0.8218 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5277, "after": 0.5337 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8218, "tackles": 1.2984, "tackles_won": 0.8174, "clearances": 2.9507, "aerial_won": 1.3856, "total_shots": 0.5337, "rating": 6.827, "minutes": 80.19, "total_pass": 51.3783, "accurate_pass": 46.3264, "duels_won": 4.4811, "total_long_balls": 3.8963, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 30.2005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.5946, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7319, "crosses_total": 0.7326, "crosses_accurate": 0.2154, "touches": 65.7363, "possession_lost": 7.5381, "dispossessed": 0.2357, "duels_lost": 2.6704, "aerial_lost": 0.9823, "total_contest": 0.3452, "won_contest": 0.2754, "ball_recovery": 2.9129, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.1088, "fouls_drawn": 0.9302, "blocks": 0.3969, "goals": 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0.7326, "crosses_accurate": 0.2154, "touches": 65.7363, "possession_lost": 7.5381, "dispossessed": 0.2357, "duels_lost": 2.6704, "aerial_lost": 0.9823, "total_contest": 0.3452, "won_contest": 0.2754, "ball_recovery": 2.9129, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.1088, "fouls_drawn": 0.9302, "blocks": 0.3969, "goals": 0.1339, "goal_rate": 0.1339, "assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0083, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "shots_on_target": 0.1984, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0994, "ball_carries": 16.3321, "total_progression": 71.65, "progressive_carries": 0.9932, "key_pass": 0.0275, "shots_off_target": 0.3331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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0.0853, "total": 1.0463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138187 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.049186 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.048993 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.047582 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.023124 } ], "others_margin": 0.084981 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.868647575378418, "model_output": 1.8686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1936 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0896 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": 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"decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7903 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3362 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3224 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2086 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1643 } ], "others": -0.3701, "total": 1.9056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.262333 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120085 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.114882 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082052 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.069712 } ], "others_margin": -0.177442 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6023443341255188, "model_output": 0.6023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.148 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0253, "total": 0.7391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.148009 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05807 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023904 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023569 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014745 } ], "others_margin": 0.025348 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.992168426513672, "model_output": 6.9922, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.0512, "total": 6.9922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065873 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.054249 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034539 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.032516 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028547 } ], "others_margin": 0.051096 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0512, "tackles": 1.8774, "tackles_won": 1.1569, "clearances": 1.9145, "aerial_won": 0.6052, "total_shots": 0.7426, "rating": 6.9922, "minutes": 82.89, "total_pass": 61.9158, "accurate_pass": 57.7422, "duels_won": 3.5902, "total_long_balls": 3.0156, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7491, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.6343, "crosses_total": 1.7694, "crosses_accurate": 0.2059, "touches": 81.1745, "possession_lost": 8.2755, "dispossessed": 0.7025, "duels_lost": 3.0468, "aerial_lost": 0.413, "total_contest": 1.0392, "won_contest": 0.7847, "ball_recovery": 4.1337, "challenges_lost": 0.9333, "fouls": 0.7435, "fouls_drawn": 0.239, "blocks": 0.2428, "goals": 0.0, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 11, "goals_prevented": 1.0844 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 121, "combined_rank_score": 112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033348 } ], "others_margin": -0.011716 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5933364629745483, "model_output": 1.5933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1515 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0783 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0757 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0742 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0602 } ], "others": 0.0452, "total": 1.5933, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103816 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052285 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060366 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.040047 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030062 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014376 } ], "others_margin": -0.014228 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.114275932312012, "model_output": 7.1143, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0296 } ], "others": 0.107, "total": 7.1143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.059707 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.056813 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039517 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.031335 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029609 } ], "others_margin": 0.106914 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0738, "tackles": 1.2155, "tackles_won": 0.7181, "clearances": 4.7484, "aerial_won": 1.607, "total_shots": 0.8816, "rating": 7.1143, "minutes": 87.92, "total_pass": 64.9835, "accurate_pass": 58.3425, "duels_won": 3.8682, "total_long_balls": 7.0584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4786, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.6674, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6751, "crosses_total": 0.2587, "crosses_accurate": 0.0161, "touches": 78.4885, "possession_lost": 8.1458, "dispossessed": 0.2212, "duels_lost": 1.8753, "aerial_lost": 1.0349, "total_contest": 0.6453, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 3.7643, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2145, "blocks": 0.7803, "goals": 0.0, 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vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0868, "tackles": 1.2155, "tackles_won": 0.7267, "clearances": 4.7484, "aerial_won": 1.607, "total_shots": 0.883, "rating": 7.1143, "minutes": 87.92, "total_pass": 64.9835, "accurate_pass": 58.3425, "duels_won": 3.8682, "total_long_balls": 7.0584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4786, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.6674, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6751, "crosses_total": 0.2597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0161, "touches": 78.4885, "possession_lost": 8.1458, "dispossessed": 0.2212, "duels_lost": 1.8753, "aerial_lost": 1.0349, "total_contest": 0.6453, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 3.7643, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.189, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.7803, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "big_chances_created": 0.2562, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 20.3062, "total_progression": 79.318, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.51, "shots_off_target": 0.709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0868, "tackles": 1.2155, "tackles_won": 0.7267, "clearances": 4.7484, "aerial_won": 1.607, "total_shots": 0.883, "rating": 7.1143, "minutes": 87.92, "total_pass": 64.9835, "accurate_pass": 58.3425, "duels_won": 3.8682, "total_long_balls": 7.0584, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4786, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.6674, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6751, "crosses_total": 0.2597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0161, "touches": 78.4885, "possession_lost": 8.1458, "dispossessed": 0.2212, "duels_lost": 1.8753, 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0139, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4609, "expected_assists": 0.1409, "assists": 0.1344, "assist_rate": 0.1344, "expected_goals": 0.185, "goals": 0.1543, "goal_rate": 0.1543, "shots_on_target": 0.6486, "total_shots": 1.6927, "rating": 7.0575, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.0873, "accurate_pass": 45.04, "duels_won": 4.8051, "total_long_balls": 4.1016, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8092, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2979, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7421, "crosses_total": 4.9405, "crosses_accurate": 1.0754, "touches": 79.3421, "possession_lost": 15.673, "dispossessed": 0.2992, "duels_lost": 4.1163, "aerial_won": 0.4381, "aerial_lost": 0.5698, "interceptions": 0.9686, "tackles_won": 1.3377, "tackles": 2.0908, "clearances": 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models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.14, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.646, "expected_assists": 0.0512, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.2006, "total_shots": 0.8263, "rating": 6.9556, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 60.6375, "accurate_pass": 55.1924, "duels_won": 5.3063, "total_long_balls": 4.0028, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4791, "total_own_half_passes": 30.103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.3345, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.8579, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.5787, "possession_lost": 7.1462, "dispossessed": 0.3948, "duels_lost": 2.4696, "aerial_won": 1.4645, "aerial_lost": 0.8344, "interceptions": 3.1078, "tackles_won": 1.0112, "tackles": 1.6531, 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90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.4216, "totalShots": 0.9496, "expectedGoals": 0.0447, "expectedAssists": 0.0456, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6460358500480652, "model_output": 0.646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.0512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.190305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151164 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.121211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.11399 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103589 } ], "others_margin": -0.138813 } }, { "target": 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}, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.085587 } ], "others_margin": -0.259766 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04664731025695801, "model_output": 0.0466, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.0466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.210054 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.14123 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.140406 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122081 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.044931 } ], "others_margin": -0.285681 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05925696715712547, "model_output": 0.0593, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0593, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.137555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114856 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111076 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.110902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098538 } ], "others_margin": -0.173211 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20061835646629333, "model_output": 0.2006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0742, "total": 0.2006, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.15437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.135988 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1209 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068166 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.066549 } ], "others_margin": -0.314503 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8263421654701233, "model_output": 0.8263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0499 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": -0.203, "total": 0.8263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138476 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051192 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049941 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037788 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032754 } ], "others_margin": -0.202864 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.955637454986572, "model_output": 6.9556, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 6.9556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.066879 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03739 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03141 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.022539 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.019067 } ], "others_margin": -0.032621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0360, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6693, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0693, "assist_rate": 0.0693, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.2078, "total_shots": 0.8561, "rating": 6.9556, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 62.8205, "accurate_pass": 57.1793, "duels_won": 5.4973, "total_long_balls": 4.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 31.1867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.3905, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.6337, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7888, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.2995, "possession_lost": 7.4035, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 2.5585, "aerial_won": 1.5172, "aerial_lost": 0.8644, "interceptions": 3.2197, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.7126, "clearances": 2.6005, "total_contest": 0.409, "won_contest": 0.409, "challenges_lost": 0.7303, "fouls": 0.5548, "fouls_drawn": 1.8586, "blocks": 0.409, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.9322, "total_progression": 43.133, "progressive_carries": 0.5587, "shots_off_target": 0.6482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0350)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6693, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.2005, "total_shots": 0.8418, "rating": 6.9556, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 62.8205, "accurate_pass": 57.1793, "duels_won": 5.4973, "total_long_balls": 4.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 31.1867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.3905, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.6337, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7888, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.2995, "possession_lost": 7.4035, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 2.5585, "aerial_won": 1.5172, "aerial_lost": 0.8644, "interceptions": 3.1536, "tackles_won": 1.0731, "tackles": 1.7126, "clearances": 2.6005, "total_contest": 0.409, "won_contest": 0.409, "challenges_lost": 0.7303, "fouls": 0.582, "fouls_drawn": 1.8557, "blocks": 0.409, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.9322, "total_progression": 43.133, "progressive_carries": 0.5587, "shots_off_target": 0.6482 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.035, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9328, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 3.2197, "after": 3.1536 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5548, "after": 0.582 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0476, "after": 1.0731 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8561, "after": 0.8418 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2078, "after": 0.2005 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6693, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.2005, "total_shots": 0.8487, "rating": 6.9556, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 62.8205, "accurate_pass": 57.1793, "duels_won": 5.4973, "total_long_balls": 4.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 31.1867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.3905, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.6337, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7888, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.2995, "possession_lost": 7.4035, 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"contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.0939, "total": 0.9037, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084273 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060439 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.03004 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024111 } ], "others_margin": -0.093987 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1767354011535645, "model_output": 7.1767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.0397, "total": 7.1767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.116091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078784 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030215 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026509 } ], "others_margin": 0.039789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0165, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.1306, "assists": 0.1215, "assist_rate": 0.1215, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.2405, "total_shots": 0.9186, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3818, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 0.754, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5158, "tackles_won": 0.4875, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5507, "fouls_drawn": 0.7955, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.6781 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0165, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0147)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.1306, "assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2422, "total_shots": 0.9104, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 0.754, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.6781 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0147, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.818, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3818, "after": 1.3668 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7955, "after": 0.8099 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9186, "after": 0.9104 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.5158, "after": 1.5092 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.1306, "assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2422, "total_shots": 0.9203, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 0.754, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.6781 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.1306, "assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.0762, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0263, "xgot": 0.1169, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.8608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Villares", "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "skill_edge": 0.2034, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8893, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Diego Villares", "market_value": 1000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0753 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.754, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9203, "after": 1.1683 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6781, "after": 0.8608 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2422, "after": 0.3075 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0921, "after": 0.1169 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.06, "after": 0.0762 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0593, "after": 0.0753 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0207, "after": 0.0263 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.1306, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0263, "xgot": 0.1169, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.8608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Villares", "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0263, "xgot": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.8608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Villares", "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0072, "creation_factor": 0.9684 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0753, "after": 0.1261 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1306, "after": 0.2187 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0263, "xgot": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.8608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Villares", "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0072, "creation_factor": 0.9684, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, "total_pass": 53.827, "accurate_pass": 48.2338, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 3.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0062, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8326, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.4013, "crosses_total": 1.3668, "crosses_accurate": 0.4149, "touches": 67.7367, "possession_lost": 10.0988, "dispossessed": 1.2064, "duels_lost": 3.538, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2686, "interceptions": 1.5092, "tackles_won": 0.4908, "tackles": 1.0557, "clearances": 0.3276, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 1.3651, "challenges_lost": 0.7772, "fouls": 0.5531, "fouls_drawn": 0.8099, "blocks": 0.1499, "big_chances_created": 0.186, "big_chances_missed": 0.0263, "xgot": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 22.4078, "total_progression": 60.4776, "progressive_carries": 1.8806, "shots_off_target": 0.8608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Villares", "opponent_faced": "Diego Villares", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1185, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0072, "creation_factor": 0.9684, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1185, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "scorer_weight": 0.127, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.0417, "finishing_factor": 1.0072, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.416, "expected_assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.1249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.0762, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3075, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 7.1767, "minutes": 73.62, 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0.1863, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.9812, "total_progression": 47.7471, "progressive_carries": 1.5342, "shots_off_target": 1.446 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.295, "goals": 0.3574, "goal_rate": 0.3574, "shots_on_target": 1.0452, "total_shots": 2.8403, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 1.3206, "rating": 7.0129, "minutes": 72.91, "total_pass": 28.2011, "accurate_pass": 23.2227, "duels_won": 3.7936, "total_long_balls": 1.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9604, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.05, "crosses_total": 3.1137, "crosses_accurate": 0.9067, "touches": 43.8009, "possession_lost": 11.1357, "dispossessed": 0.9252, "duels_lost": 3.8856, "aerial_lost": 0.5978, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.2661, "ball_recovery": 2.0101, "challenges_lost": 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"after": 0.1883 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.295, "goal_rate": 0.3574, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0452, "total_shots": 2.8403, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 1.3206, "rating": 7.0129, "minutes": 72.91, "total_pass": 28.2011, "accurate_pass": 23.2227, "duels_won": 3.7936, "total_long_balls": 1.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9604, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.05, "crosses_total": 3.1137, "crosses_accurate": 0.9067, "touches": 43.8009, "possession_lost": 11.1357, "dispossessed": 0.9252, "duels_lost": 3.8856, "aerial_lost": 0.5978, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.2661, "ball_recovery": 2.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.7658, "fouls": 0.5703, "fouls_drawn": 0.8288, "assist_rate": 0.2564, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4939, "goal_rate": 0.3574, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0452, "total_shots": 2.8403, "expected_assists": 0.1651, "key_pass": 1.3206, "rating": 7.0129, "minutes": 72.91, "total_pass": 28.2011, "accurate_pass": 23.2227, "duels_won": 3.7936, "total_long_balls": 1.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9604, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.05, "crosses_total": 3.1137, "crosses_accurate": 0.9067, "touches": 43.8009, "possession_lost": 11.1357, "dispossessed": 0.9252, "duels_lost": 3.8856, "aerial_lost": 0.5978, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.2661, "ball_recovery": 2.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.7658, "fouls": 0.5703, "fouls_drawn": 0.8288, "assist_rate": 0.2564, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1796, "tackles_won": 0.8224, "tackles": 1.4362, "clearances": 0.2299, "blocks": 0.0, 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"duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 451, "combined_rank_score": 272.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 236.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 308.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8194, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ademola Lookman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Piero Hincapié", "ranking": 446 }, { "player_name": "Ha Jung-Woo", "ranking": 447 }, { "player_name": "Umar Adhamzoda", "ranking": 448 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Kovačić", "ranking": 449 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seok Lee", "ranking": 450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gonzalo Escalante", "ranking": 452 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Carreira", "ranking": 453 }, { "player_name": "Neto Moura", "ranking": 454 }, { "player_name": "Walter", "ranking": 455 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Plata", "ranking": 456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 21, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.017, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.3846153846153846, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.32, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, 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"match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1875, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Botti", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Jeisson Vargas", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Barrios", "ranking": 246 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4591 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1694 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0564 } ], "others": 0.1019, "total": 2.1942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.459083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.16943 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.07032 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.069223 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.056382 } ], "others_margin": 0.101767 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 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0.115679 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.09349 } ], "others_margin": 0.484628 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.139968156814575, "model_output": 2.14, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1715 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1227 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1037 } ], "others": 0.8299, "total": 2.14, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.224714 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.13455 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.124381 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088911 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.082487 } ], "others_margin": 0.490734 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.187536716461182, "model_output": 7.1875, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0814 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0359 } ], "others": 0.1677, "total": 7.1875, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.081359 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.052765 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044744 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036694 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03589 } ], "others_margin": 0.167804 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1822, "goals": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.2277, "shots_on_target": 0.8343, "total_shots": 2.2192, "expected_assists": 0.2243, "key_pass": 2.1644, "rating": 7.1875, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0472, "accurate_pass": 29.8224, "duels_won": 2.3366, "total_long_balls": 2.2048, "accurate_long_balls": 1.716, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6906, "crosses_total": 3.5951, "crosses_accurate": 0.9668, "touches": 51.4047, "possession_lost": 12.1176, "dispossessed": 0.8523, "duels_lost": 4.8908, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 1.2092, "won_contest": 0.1985, "ball_recovery": 2.4545, "challenges_lost": 0.9634, "fouls": 1.1132, "fouls_drawn": 1.235, "assists": 0.0578, "assist_rate": 0.0578, "interceptions": 1.3467, 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"margin": 0.043806 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.034428 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033461 } ], "others_margin": 0.102304 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0278, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1699, "goals": 0.189, "goal_rate": 0.189, "shots_on_target": 0.6993, "total_shots": 2.1216, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.2602, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.4223 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0278, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1699, "goals": 0.189, "goal_rate": 0.189, "shots_on_target": 0.6993, "total_shots": 2.1216, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.2602, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.4223 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goals": 0.2212, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.3045, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "skill_edge": 0.1439, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.7641, "defender_skill": 0.4445, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4515 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "market_value": 95000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1988 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1216, "after": 2.4829 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4223, "after": 1.6645 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6993, "after": 0.8184 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2602, "after": 0.3045 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.189, "after": 0.2212 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1853, "after": 0.2169 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1699, "after": 0.1988 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.3045, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3328, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.3422, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.5098, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.09, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1988, "after": 0.3328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2044, "after": 0.3422 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3328, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.3422, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.5098, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.09, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 802, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3328, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.3422, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.5098, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2831, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.09, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2831, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "scorer_weight": 0.3628, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.1192, "finishing_factor": 1.09, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3328, "goal_rate": 0.2212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8184, "total_shots": 2.4829, "expected_assists": 0.3422, "key_pass": 2.1089, "rating": 7.104, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 41.1049, "accurate_pass": 34.4384, "duels_won": 4.0537, "total_long_balls": 2.192, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0898, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0062, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.0875, "crosses_total": 2.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.95, "touches": 57.0284, "possession_lost": 11.8861, "dispossessed": 1.2499, "duels_lost": 4.974, "aerial_lost": 0.3453, "total_contest": 2.281, "won_contest": 1.45, "ball_recovery": 3.001, "challenges_lost": 0.8327, "fouls": 1.8791, "fouls_drawn": 1.137, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.6919, "tackles": 1.0242, "clearances": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2647, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.5098, "offsides": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 21.6225, "total_progression": 62.7032, "progressive_carries": 3.1467, "shots_off_target": 1.6645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Noubi, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2831, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2898, "finishing_factor": 1.09, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2898, "assist_rate": 0.1007, "provider_weight": 0.2738, "squad_weight_total": 1.8319, "weight_share": 0.1494, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3003, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3003, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2738 } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Juan Musso": { "player_id": 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -1.2567 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.1327 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083131, "match_date": "2025-11-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0135 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 315, "combined_rank_score": 216.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 411.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9315, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Musso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josh Wilson-Esbrand", "ranking": 310 }, { "player_name": "Choi Jun-yeong", "ranking": 311 }, { "player_name": "Wladimiro Falcone", "ranking": 312 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "ranking": 313 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 314 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ju-kong Kim", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yong Bak", "ranking": 317 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.40206294284004, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10918467922000183, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9925, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 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"match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 6.9731, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9105, "saves": 2.7221, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1493, "save_contribution": 2.3506, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 19.0589 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.908377170562744, "model_output": 2.9084, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0286 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 2.9084, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047444 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013166 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010955 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.010484 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.009821 } ], "others_margin": -0.006349 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.03635447472333908, "model_output": -0.0364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": -0.0364, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02351 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.022138 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021685 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.02079 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.017 } ], "others_margin": -0.03834 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9314961433410645, "model_output": 6.9315, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 6.9315, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.034058 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02083 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.018055 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017351 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.013013 } ], "others_margin": -0.026859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9925, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8866, "goals_prevented": -0.0361, "rating": 6.9315, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.4033, "accurate_pass": 20.8043, "total_long_balls": 11.4377, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8386, "touches": 40.2588, "clearances": 1.0364, "ball_recovery": 9.9405, "high_claims": 1.6765, "punches": 0.7718, "aerial_won": 0.8482, "sweeper_actions": 0.7197, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7197, "saves_inside_box": 1.7624, "possession_lost": 6.9208, "duels_won": 0.9254, "duels_lost": 0.2047, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.3729, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9925, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4459, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9315, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1545, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4459, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9315, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4459, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9315, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.303593639163456, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0046, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (33 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.517, "tackles": 0.507, "tackles_won": 0.2721, "clearances": 1.4791, "aerial_won": 0.915, "total_shots": 0.1343, "rating": 6.7334, 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false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 49.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.405, "aerialWon": 1.7551, "totalClearance_p90": 4.2021, "totalTackle": 1.3178, "defensive_actions": 2.3183 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5170418620109558, "model_output": 0.517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": 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"totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7832 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.059, "total": 0.507, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835341 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039039 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.025132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.023257 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.02104 } ], "others_margin": -0.109941 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.2721477150917053, "model_output": 0.2721, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4781 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0476, "total": 0.2721, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.83419 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05372 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.036854 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.024468 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.022694 } ], "others_margin": -0.161083 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4791070222854614, "model_output": 1.4791, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.089 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0266 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 1.4791, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.959697 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065625 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.041651 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.035396 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.017751 } ], "others_margin": -0.004909 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9149653315544128, "model_output": 0.915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7561 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1275 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0391 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": 0.0547, "total": 0.915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.789281 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.184538 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.050329 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04478 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.0333 } ], "others_margin": 0.06165 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1342826932668686, "model_output": 0.1343, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1929 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0555, "total": 0.1343, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.192901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018521 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012643 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008794 } ], "others_margin": -0.055439 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.73339319229126, "model_output": 6.7334, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 6.7334, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01365 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013523 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011626 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008646 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.007142 } ], "others_margin": -0.01669 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5194, "tackles": 0.5094, "tackles_won": 0.2734, "clearances": 1.4859, "aerial_won": 0.9192, "total_shots": 0.1349, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 30.03, "total_pass": 18.9336, "accurate_pass": 16.327, "duels_won": 1.8629, "total_long_balls": 1.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7429, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4329, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8942, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0564, "touches": 23.4065, "possession_lost": 3.0047, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.1493, "won_contest": 0.1493, "ball_recovery": 1.1084, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5738, "fouls_drawn": 0.1888, "blocks": 0.3549, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 6.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8942, "crosses_total": 0.1329, "crosses_accurate": 0.0564, "touches": 23.4065, "possession_lost": 3.0047, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9395, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.1493, "won_contest": 0.1493, "ball_recovery": 1.1084, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5717, "fouls_drawn": 0.1888, "blocks": 0.3549, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9359, "total_progression": 24.2878, "progressive_carries": 0.463, "key_pass": 0.0564, "shots_off_target": 0.1349 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0103, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3337, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.0 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles": 0.2426, "tackles_won": 0.1307, "clearances": 0.7077, "aerial_won": 0.4378, "total_shots": 0.0643, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.0183, "accurate_pass": 7.7767, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.9451, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3539, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0556, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4456, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3312, "crosses_total": 0.0633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0269, "touches": 11.1488, "possession_lost": 1.4312, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4475, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.0711, "won_contest": 0.0711, "ball_recovery": 0.5279, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2723, "fouls_drawn": 0.0899, "blocks": 0.169, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seung-jae Lee", "ranking": 952 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-Jun Suk", "ranking": 953 }, { "player_name": "Theo Hernández", "ranking": 954 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Diaby", "ranking": 955 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking": 956 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking": 958 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 }, { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 961 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.1929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.650295 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.107806 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042787 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032684 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.027277 } ], "others_margin": 0.035014 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5261647701263428, "model_output": 0.5262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4719 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0403, "total": 0.5262, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471929 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.02365 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.019405 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016278 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.014778 } ], "others_margin": -0.040357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.945652008056641, "model_output": 6.9457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0248, "total": 6.9457, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.090961 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078586 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.054063 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01427 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.012645 } ], "others_margin": 0.02479 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7677, "expected_assists": 0.0718, "assists": 0.072, "assist_rate": 0.072, "expected_goals": 0.0626, "goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "shots_on_target": 0.1948, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.9457, "minutes": 28.34, "total_pass": 18.0771, "accurate_pass": 13.9291, "duels_won": 2.31, "total_long_balls": 0.3361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2545, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.776, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1532, "crosses_total": 0.4438, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3637, "possession_lost": 6.3378, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 2.2443, "aerial_won": 1.2048, "aerial_lost": 0.5425, "interceptions": 0.5425, "tackles_won": 0.157, "tackles": 0.5021, "clearances": 0.1709, 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0.7918, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "assist_rate": 0.075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "total_shots": 0.548, "rating": 6.9457, "minutes": 29.23, "total_pass": 18.6448, "accurate_pass": 14.3665, "duels_won": 2.3825, "total_long_balls": 0.3467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2147, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.926, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4407, "crosses_total": 0.4571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.1288, "possession_lost": 6.5368, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 2.3148, "aerial_won": 1.2426, "aerial_lost": 0.5425, "interceptions": 0.5593, "tackles_won": 0.1679, "tackles": 0.5179, "clearances": 0.1763, "total_contest": 0.7576, "won_contest": 0.2451, "challenges_lost": 0.4184, "fouls": 0.4138, "fouls_drawn": 0.3773, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2129, "big_chances_missed": 0.233, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 4.7813, 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4462 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.5946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.026495 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.022127 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.016915 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.012963 } ], 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"all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goals": 0.1658, "goal_rate": 0.1658, "shots_on_target": 0.4308, "total_shots": 1.2119, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.4989, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 14.9598, "accurate_pass": 12.3468, "duels_won": 1.8862, "total_long_balls": 0.423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.874, "crosses_total": 0.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2396, "possession_lost": 6.1716, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 3.7455, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.6592, "won_contest": 0.1451, "ball_recovery": 1.3969, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.2362, "fouls_drawn": 1.0917, "assists": 0.4069, "assist_rate": 0.4069, "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles_won": 0.2008, "tackles": 0.2008, "clearances": 0.5559, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8555, "big_chances_missed": 1.3854, "xgot": 0.7579, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 5.9866, "total_progression": 27.9325, "progressive_carries": 1.2508, "shots_off_target": 0.7811 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1874, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1304, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1874, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1190, "fifa_rank": 738.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "scorer_weight": 0.1871, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.0615, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0472, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0472, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "provider_weight": 0.0614, "squad_weight_total": 1.8319, "weight_share": 0.0335, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3003, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3003, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2738 } ] } } ] }, "Alexander Sørloth": { "player_id": 309078, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 195, "market_value": 18600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2582, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1253, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044674 } ], "others_margin": -0.221547 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6742048263549805, "model_output": 6.6742, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0687 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 6.6742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068699 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.019914 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011892 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011446 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.009332 } ], "others_margin": -0.031284 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.617)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1746, "goals": 0.2321, "goal_rate": 0.2321, "shots_on_target": 0.5029, "total_shots": 1.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.2701, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 30.12, "total_pass": 6.0752, "accurate_pass": 3.8819, "duels_won": 2.1172, "total_long_balls": 0.1448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0272, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4173, "crosses_total": 0.0614, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6774, "possession_lost": 4.1937, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 2.2298, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1844, "won_contest": 0.0763, "ball_recovery": 0.1638, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.3556, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1627, "tackles_won": 0.1176, "tackles": 0.1552, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.0168, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.333, "xgot": 0.1932, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.6772, "total_progression": 8.4298, "progressive_carries": 0.5088, "shots_off_target": 0.5717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18600000, "quality_factor": 0.6171, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.0, "projection_minutes": 30.12, "minutes_scale": 0.8633, "appearance_probability": 0.591 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 265, "fifa_rank": 307.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "scorer_weight": 0.186, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.0611, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0102, "squad_weight_total": 1.8319, "weight_share": 0.0055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3003, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3003, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2738 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jonathan David": { "player_id": 935564, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 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}, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0718, "total": 6.668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0752 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.023747 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.021701 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020586 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.019274 } ], "others_margin": -0.071811 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goals": 0.1658, "goal_rate": 0.1658, "shots_on_target": 0.4308, "total_shots": 1.2119, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.4989, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 14.9598, "accurate_pass": 12.3468, "duels_won": 1.8862, "total_long_balls": 0.423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.874, "crosses_total": 0.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2396, "possession_lost": 6.1716, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 3.7455, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.6592, "won_contest": 0.1451, "ball_recovery": 1.3969, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.2362, "fouls_drawn": 1.0917, "assists": 0.4069, "assist_rate": 0.4069, "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles_won": 0.2008, "tackles": 0.2008, "clearances": 0.5559, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8555, "big_chances_missed": 1.3854, "xgot": 0.7579, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 5.9866, "total_progression": 27.9325, "progressive_carries": 1.2508, "shots_off_target": 0.7811 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1874, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1304, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1874, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1190, "fifa_rank": 738.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "scorer_weight": 0.1871, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.0615, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.487, "total_shots": 1.3699, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.5639, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8721, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.8829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0472, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0472, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "provider_weight": 0.0614, "squad_weight_total": 1.8319, "weight_share": 0.0335, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3003, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3003, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2738 } ] } } ] }, "Alexander Sørloth": { "player_id": 309078, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 195, "market_value": 18600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2582, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": 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"duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3744, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044674 } ], "others_margin": -0.221547 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6742048263549805, "model_output": 6.6742, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0687 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 6.6742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068699 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.019914 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011892 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011446 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.009332 } ], "others_margin": -0.031284 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.617)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1746, "goals": 0.2321, "goal_rate": 0.2321, "shots_on_target": 0.5029, "total_shots": 1.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.2701, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 30.12, "total_pass": 6.0752, "accurate_pass": 3.8819, "duels_won": 2.1172, "total_long_balls": 0.1448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0272, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4173, "crosses_total": 0.0614, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6774, "possession_lost": 4.1937, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 2.2298, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1844, "won_contest": 0.0763, "ball_recovery": 0.1638, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.3556, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1627, "tackles_won": 0.1176, "tackles": 0.1552, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.0168, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.333, "xgot": 0.1932, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.6772, "total_progression": 8.4298, "progressive_carries": 0.5088, "shots_off_target": 0.5717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18600000, "quality_factor": 0.6171, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.0, "projection_minutes": 30.12, "minutes_scale": 0.8633, "appearance_probability": 0.591 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.1668, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.90 (squad xG sum 1.7339, xG scale 1.6743, xA scale 1.6743, team xA 1.93 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.903, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7339, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1509, "team_expected_assists": 1.9269, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6638, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6743, "xa_scale": 1.6743, "opponent_lambda": 0.655, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 265, "fifa_rank": 307.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "scorer_weight": 0.186, "squad_weight_total": 3.0444, "weight_share": 0.0611, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5832, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5832, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4734 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4734, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4734, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1491, "goal_rate": 0.2004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4342, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "key_pass": 0.2332, "rating": 6.6742, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 5.2449, "accurate_pass": 3.3514, "duels_won": 1.8279, "total_long_balls": 0.125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0235, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0869, "crosses_total": 0.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.2182, "possession_lost": 3.6206, "dispossessed": 0.5559, "duels_lost": 1.9251, "aerial_lost": 0.9928, "total_contest": 0.1592, "won_contest": 0.0659, "ball_recovery": 0.1414, "challenges_lost": 0.2177, "fouls": 0.307, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.1015, "tackles": 0.134, "clearances": 0.3461, "blocks": 0.0145, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2875, "xgot": 0.165, "offsides": 0.2929, "ball_carries": 1.448, "total_progression": 7.2777, "progressive_carries": 0.4393, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.482, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "finishing_factor": 1.2476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0102, "squad_weight_total": 1.8319, "weight_share": 0.0055, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3003, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3003, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2738 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.9, "expected_assists": 1.93, "total_shots": 21, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 521, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.02, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.4 } }, "Deportivo": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bil Nsongo": { "player_id": 2335487, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1647, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1201, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5567, "combined_rank_score": 3769.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 6960.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8937, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bil Nsongo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guilherme Bissoli", "ranking": 5562 }, { "player_name": "Caio Vidal", "ranking": 5563 }, { "player_name": "Erick Marcus", "ranking": 5564 }, { "player_name": "Kwadwo Duah", "ranking": 5565 }, { "player_name": "Mateusz Skrzypczak", "ranking": 5566 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Einar Galilea", "ranking": 5568 }, { "player_name": "Ashley Barnes", "ranking": 5569 }, { "player_name": 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"contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": -0.0624, "total": 0.6508, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.252727 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056487 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.04278 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.038606 } ], "others_margin": -0.091518 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.893747806549072, "model_output": 6.8937, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 6.8937, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.043648 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.022995 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016605 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011408 } ], "others_margin": 0.008142 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2686, "goals": 0.2747, "goal_rate": 0.2747, "shots_on_target": 0.7632, "total_shots": 2.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76.24, "total_pass": 12.5687, "accurate_pass": 9.4475, "duels_won": 6.4791, "total_long_balls": 0.4342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3567, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1381, "crosses_total": 0.3178, "crosses_accurate": 0.0775, "touches": 32.837, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 8.5257, "aerial_lost": 2.6029, "total_contest": 2.9071, "won_contest": 1.247, "ball_recovery": 2.8031, "challenges_lost": 0.5178, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 0.6833, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7266, "tackles": 1.2403, "clearances": 1.0233, "blocks": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0775, "big_chances_missed": 0.1746, "xgot": 0.1958, "offsides": 0.6031, "ball_carries": 7.998, "total_progression": 19.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.3013, "shots_off_target": 1.3739 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9958, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0248)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2686, "goals": 0.2679, "goal_rate": 0.2679, "shots_on_target": 0.7571, "total_shots": 2.1228, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76.24, "total_pass": 12.5687, "accurate_pass": 9.4475, "duels_won": 6.4791, "total_long_balls": 0.4342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3567, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1381, "crosses_total": 0.3362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0775, "touches": 32.837, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 8.5257, "aerial_lost": 2.6029, "total_contest": 2.9071, "won_contest": 1.247, "ball_recovery": 2.8031, "challenges_lost": 0.5178, "fouls": 1.0974, "fouls_drawn": 0.6926, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7611, "tackles": 1.2403, "clearances": 1.0233, "blocks": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0775, "big_chances_missed": 0.1746, "xgot": 0.1958, "offsides": 0.6013, "ball_carries": 7.998, "total_progression": 19.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.3013, "shots_off_target": 1.3739 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0248, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8471, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1913, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5391, "total_shots": 1.5175, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76.24, "total_pass": 12.5687, "accurate_pass": 9.4475, "duels_won": 6.4791, "total_long_balls": 0.4342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3567, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1381, "crosses_total": 0.3362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0775, "touches": 32.837, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 8.5257, "aerial_lost": 2.6029, "total_contest": 2.9071, "won_contest": 1.247, "ball_recovery": 2.8031, "challenges_lost": 0.5178, "fouls": 1.0974, "fouls_drawn": 0.6926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7611, "tackles": 1.2403, "clearances": 1.0233, "blocks": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0775, "big_chances_missed": 0.1243, "xgot": 0.1394, "offsides": 0.6013, "ball_carries": 7.998, "total_progression": 19.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.3013, "shots_off_target": 0.9784, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1647, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5391, "total_shots": 1.5175, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76.24, "total_pass": 12.5687, "accurate_pass": 9.4475, "duels_won": 6.4791, "total_long_balls": 0.4342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3567, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1381, "crosses_total": 0.3362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0775, "touches": 32.837, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 8.5257, "aerial_lost": 2.6029, "total_contest": 2.9071, "won_contest": 1.247, "ball_recovery": 2.8031, "challenges_lost": 0.5178, "fouls": 1.0974, "fouls_drawn": 0.6926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7611, "tackles": 1.2403, "clearances": 1.0233, "blocks": 0.0911, "big_chances_created": 0.0775, "big_chances_missed": 0.1243, "xgot": 0.1201, "offsides": 0.6013, "ball_carries": 7.998, "total_progression": 19.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.3013, "shots_off_target": 0.9784, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9979, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1913, "after": 0.1647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0421, "after": 0.0311 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1647, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5391, "total_shots": 1.5175, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.8937, "minutes": 76.24, "total_pass": 12.5687, "accurate_pass": 9.4475, "duels_won": 6.4791, "total_long_balls": 0.4342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3567, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1381, "crosses_total": 0.3362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0775, "touches": 32.837, "possession_lost": 11.8274, "dispossessed": 2.6735, "duels_lost": 8.5257, "aerial_lost": 2.6029, "total_contest": 2.9071, "won_contest": 1.247, "ball_recovery": 2.8031, "challenges_lost": 0.5178, "fouls": 1.0974, "fouls_drawn": 0.6926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7611, 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-0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.265558 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.106859 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.098307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.090946 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079141 } ], "others_margin": 0.352059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.998350620269775, "model_output": 6.9984, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": 0.0365, "total": 6.9984, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.070471 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.064239 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024934 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.018856 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015098 } ], "others_margin": 0.036472 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0178, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goals": 0.1478, "goal_rate": 0.1478, "shots_on_target": 0.4818, "total_shots": 1.5867, "expected_assists": 0.1334, "key_pass": 1.5584, "rating": 6.9984, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 26.1888, "accurate_pass": 23.632, "duels_won": 7.6785, "total_long_balls": 1.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.732, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4766, "crosses_total": 2.4134, "crosses_accurate": 1.0682, "touches": 48.6349, "possession_lost": 9.3847, "dispossessed": 2.0771, "duels_lost": 5.4915, "aerial_lost": 0.5717, "total_contest": 6.6103, "won_contest": 4.4491, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6815, "fouls_drawn": 1.4639, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9585, "tackles_won": 1.1939, "tackles": 1.7656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3098, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6369, "total_progression": 112.9893, "progressive_carries": 5.4095, "shots_off_target": 1.1048 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0178, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0067)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goals": 0.1468, "goal_rate": 0.1468, "shots_on_target": 0.4786, "total_shots": 1.5761, "expected_assists": 0.1334, "key_pass": 1.5584, "rating": 6.9984, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 26.1888, "accurate_pass": 23.632, "duels_won": 7.6785, "total_long_balls": 1.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.732, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4766, "crosses_total": 2.3973, "crosses_accurate": 1.0682, "touches": 48.6349, "possession_lost": 9.3847, "dispossessed": 2.0771, "duels_lost": 5.4915, "aerial_lost": 0.5717, "total_contest": 6.6103, "won_contest": 4.4491, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 1.4686, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9521, "tackles_won": 1.2149, "tackles": 1.7656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3098, "offsides": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 17.6369, "total_progression": 112.9893, "progressive_carries": 5.4095, "shots_off_target": 1.1048 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0067, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8679, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1084, "goal_rate": 0.1164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3796, "total_shots": 1.256, "expected_assists": 0.1334, "key_pass": 1.5584, "rating": 6.9984, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 26.1888, "accurate_pass": 23.632, "duels_won": 7.6785, "total_long_balls": 1.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.732, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4766, "crosses_total": 2.3973, "crosses_accurate": 1.0682, "touches": 48.6349, "possession_lost": 9.3847, "dispossessed": 2.0771, "duels_lost": 5.4915, "aerial_lost": 0.5717, "total_contest": 6.6103, "won_contest": 4.4491, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 1.4686, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9521, "tackles_won": 1.2149, "tackles": 1.7656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2457, "offsides": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 17.6369, "total_progression": 112.9893, "progressive_carries": 5.4095, "shots_off_target": 0.8763, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0934, "goal_rate": 0.1164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3796, "total_shots": 1.256, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 1.5584, "rating": 6.9984, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 26.1888, "accurate_pass": 23.632, "duels_won": 7.6785, "total_long_balls": 1.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.732, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4766, "crosses_total": 2.3973, "crosses_accurate": 1.0682, "touches": 48.6349, "possession_lost": 9.3847, "dispossessed": 2.0771, "duels_lost": 5.4915, "aerial_lost": 0.5717, "total_contest": 6.6103, "won_contest": 4.4491, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 1.4686, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9521, "tackles_won": 1.2149, "tackles": 1.7656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2117, "offsides": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 17.6369, "total_progression": 112.9893, "progressive_carries": 5.4095, "shots_off_target": 0.8763, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0505, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1084, "after": 0.0934 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1334, "after": 0.0986 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": -0.168519 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.144995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.123927 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088722 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.086398 } ], "others_margin": -0.113215 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08047252148389816, "model_output": 0.0805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.0805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.162842 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.147495 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.139895 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.068574 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055549 } ], "others_margin": -0.072821 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.26117947697639465, "model_output": 0.2612, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0661 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0273 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 0.2612, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.184637 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.152372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.135752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.116182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099219 } ], "others_margin": -0.101324 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1906284093856812, "model_output": 1.1906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1335 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0801 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": -0.0985, "total": 1.1906, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.299675 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.080148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.031565 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029318 } ], "others_margin": -0.098401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.166673183441162, "model_output": 7.1667, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0806 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0213, "total": 7.1667, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.124994 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080592 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024259 } ], "others_margin": 0.021388 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4794, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assists": 0.1061, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0802, "goal_rate": 0.0802, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 1.1861, "rating": 7.1667, "minutes": 84.57, "total_pass": 59.3645, "accurate_pass": 54.4167, "duels_won": 3.1198, "total_long_balls": 5.861, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1892, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2491, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.1676, "crosses_total": 2.5408, "crosses_accurate": 0.7498, "touches": 72.652, "possession_lost": 9.7834, "dispossessed": 1.3465, "duels_lost": 3.393, "aerial_won": 0.2818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7633, "tackles_won": 0.4325, "tackles": 1.0277, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.6323, "won_contest": 0.4269, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.9242, "fouls_drawn": 1.5581, "blocks": 0.1484, "big_chances_created": 0.514, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1231, "ball_carries": 24.0084, "total_progression": 51.6197, "progressive_carries": 1.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.9259 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0387)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4794, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assists": 0.1165, "assist_rate": 0.1165, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2501, "total_shots": 1.1835, "rating": 7.1667, "minutes": 84.57, "total_pass": 59.3645, "accurate_pass": 54.4167, "duels_won": 3.1198, "total_long_balls": 5.861, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1892, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2491, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.1676, "crosses_total": 2.4716, "crosses_accurate": 0.7498, "touches": 72.652, "possession_lost": 9.7834, "dispossessed": 1.3465, "duels_lost": 3.393, "aerial_won": 0.2818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7483, "tackles_won": 0.4449, "tackles": 1.0277, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.6323, "won_contest": 0.4269, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.903, "fouls_drawn": 1.5414, "blocks": 0.1484, "big_chances_created": 0.514, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1231, "ball_carries": 24.0084, "total_progression": 51.6197, "progressive_carries": 1.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.9259 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0387, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9397, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1368, "combined_rank_score": 713.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9089, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Villares", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Xavier", "ranking": 1363 }, { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 }, { "player_name": "Ui-jun Jin", "ranking": 1367 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "ranking": 1369 }, { "player_name": "Vitão", "ranking": 1370 }, { "player_name": "Jemmes", "ranking": 1371 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Muratbaev", "ranking": 1372 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jae Kim", "ranking": 1373 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.57, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.23631933331489563, "model_output": 0.2363, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0558 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 0.2363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.187828 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.151782 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050694 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.027486 } ], "others_margin": -0.124554 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.888056755065918, "model_output": 0.8881, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1478 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.1015, "total": 0.8881, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147779 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.050421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047896 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030687 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.026119 } ], "others_margin": -0.101495 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.908891201019287, "model_output": 6.9089, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 } ], "others": -0.0515, "total": 6.9089, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036798 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030226 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.026763 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.019244 } ], "others_margin": -0.051546 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assists": 0.0608, "assist_rate": 0.0608, "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "shots_on_target": 0.2339, "total_shots": 0.8791, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2269, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 0.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.1115, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9401, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1219, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.6451 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0152)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.2303, "total_shots": 0.8658, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 0.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1219, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.6451 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0152, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8936, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5702, "after": 0.6003 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8791, "after": 0.8658 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4538, "after": 0.4469 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9401, "after": 0.9452 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.2303, "total_shots": 0.8754, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 0.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1219, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.6451 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0898, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.4754, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.737, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.737, "skill_edge": -0.1829, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.8439, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8439 } ], "xg_override": 0.0485 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7476, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8754, "after": 0.6452 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6451, "after": 0.4754 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2303, "after": 0.1697 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1219, "after": 0.0898 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.0485 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0618, "after": 0.0455 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0898, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.4754, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.737, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.4754, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.737, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9695, "creation_factor": 1.0261 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0485, "after": 0.0418 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0571, "after": 0.0422 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, "clearances": 0.8912, "total_contest": 0.2669, "won_contest": 0.2669, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.9452, "fouls_drawn": 0.4469, "blocks": 0.4538, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 10.1615, "total_progression": 18.7444, "progressive_carries": 0.1394, "shots_off_target": 0.4754, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.737, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9695, "creation_factor": 1.0261, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1368, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5339, "interceptions": 1.114, "tackles_won": 0.6003, "tackles": 1.3272, 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0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "scorer_weight": 0.0405, "squad_weight_total": 0.6442, "weight_share": 0.0629, "finishing_factor": 0.9695, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7575, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.6452, "rating": 6.9089, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 36.0776, "accurate_pass": 30.914, "duels_won": 2.7955, "total_long_balls": 2.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4875, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4265, "crosses_total": 0.2235, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7705, "possession_lost": 6.3841, "dispossessed": 0.5339, "duels_lost": 2.3985, "aerial_won": 1.2, 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"margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.296092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121581 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.071661 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055631 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039432 } ], "others_margin": -0.155447 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.938462734222412, "model_output": 6.9385, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.547, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.07, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0904, "total_shots": 0.3595, "rating": 6.9385, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 54.5593, "accurate_pass": 49.1778, "duels_won": 6.2438, "total_long_balls": 3.0497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9268, "total_own_half_passes": 29.24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8666, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3113, "crosses_total": 0.4061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2277, "possession_lost": 8.6307, "dispossessed": 0.7573, "duels_lost": 5.8464, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "interceptions": 0.9483, "tackles_won": 1.2901, "tackles": 3.013, "clearances": 2.7161, "total_contest": 1.1612, "won_contest": 0.3897, "challenges_lost": 0.8421, "fouls": 2.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2268, "blocks": 0.7712, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.32, "total_progression": 99.2359, "progressive_carries": 0.9074, "shots_off_target": 0.2691, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.547, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.07, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0904, "total_shots": 0.3595, "rating": 6.9385, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 54.5593, "accurate_pass": 49.1778, "duels_won": 6.2438, "total_long_balls": 3.0497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9268, "total_own_half_passes": 29.24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8666, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3113, "crosses_total": 0.4061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2277, "possession_lost": 8.6307, "dispossessed": 0.7573, "duels_lost": 5.8464, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "interceptions": 0.9483, "tackles_won": 1.2901, "tackles": 3.013, "clearances": 2.7161, "total_contest": 1.1612, "won_contest": 0.3897, "challenges_lost": 0.8421, "fouls": 2.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2268, "blocks": 0.7712, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.32, "total_progression": 99.2359, "progressive_carries": 0.9074, "shots_off_target": 0.2691, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1114, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.0306 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.5071, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058143 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042211 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015869 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014695 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.007505 } ], "others_margin": -0.021797 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741195201873779, "model_output": 6.7412, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 6.7412, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018188 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015015 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013774 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01356 } ], "others_margin": -0.031078 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0296, "tackles": 1.2646, "tackles_won": 0.7983, "clearances": 2.8042, "aerial_won": 0.9268, "total_shots": 0.5042, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 31.6737, "accurate_pass": 23.9373, "duels_won": 4.0226, "total_long_balls": 4.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4193, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6689, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2683, "crosses_total": 3.7252, "crosses_accurate": 0.7768, "touches": 55.6236, "possession_lost": 14.4331, "dispossessed": 0.1431, "duels_lost": 3.8128, "aerial_lost": 1.2181, "total_contest": 1.6625, "won_contest": 0.7615, "ball_recovery": 4.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.4163, "fouls": 1.5137, "fouls_drawn": 1.6214, "blocks": 0.2139, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.3309, "big_chances_created": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.048, "ball_carries": 13.9012, "total_progression": 47.0373, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "key_pass": 0.7732, "shots_off_target": 0.1733 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0464)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0426, "tackles": 1.2646, "tackles_won": 0.7764, "clearances": 2.8042, "aerial_won": 0.9268, "total_shots": 0.4808, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 31.6737, "accurate_pass": 23.9373, "duels_won": 4.0226, "total_long_balls": 4.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4193, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6689, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2683, "crosses_total": 3.6587, "crosses_accurate": 0.7768, "touches": 55.6236, "possession_lost": 14.4331, "dispossessed": 0.1431, "duels_lost": 3.8128, "aerial_lost": 1.2181, "total_contest": 1.6625, "won_contest": 0.7615, "ball_recovery": 4.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.4163, "fouls": 1.5043, "fouls_drawn": 1.6222, "blocks": 0.2139, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.3155, "big_chances_created": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.048, "ball_carries": 13.9012, "total_progression": 47.0373, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "key_pass": 0.7732, "shots_off_target": 0.1733 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0464, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9829, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0426, "tackles": 1.2646, "tackles_won": 0.7764, "clearances": 2.8042, "aerial_won": 0.9268, "total_shots": 0.4888, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 31.6737, "accurate_pass": 23.9373, "duels_won": 4.0226, "total_long_balls": 4.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4193, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6689, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2683, "crosses_total": 3.6587, "crosses_accurate": 0.7768, "touches": 55.6236, "possession_lost": 14.4331, "dispossessed": 0.1431, "duels_lost": 3.8128, "aerial_lost": 1.2181, "total_contest": 1.6625, "won_contest": 0.7615, "ball_recovery": 4.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.4163, "fouls": 1.5043, "fouls_drawn": 1.6222, "blocks": 0.2139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.3155, "big_chances_created": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.048, "ball_carries": 13.9012, "total_progression": 47.0373, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "key_pass": 0.7732, "shots_off_target": 0.1733, "opponent_faced": "Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0426, "tackles": 1.2646, "tackles_won": 0.7764, "clearances": 2.8042, "aerial_won": 0.9268, "total_shots": 0.4888, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 31.6737, "accurate_pass": 23.9373, "duels_won": 4.0226, "total_long_balls": 4.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4193, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6689, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2683, "crosses_total": 3.6587, "crosses_accurate": 0.7768, "touches": 55.6236, "possession_lost": 14.4331, "dispossessed": 0.1431, "duels_lost": 3.8128, "aerial_lost": 1.2181, "total_contest": 1.6625, "won_contest": 0.7615, "ball_recovery": 4.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.4163, "fouls": 1.5043, "fouls_drawn": 1.6222, "blocks": 0.2139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "shots_on_target": 0.3155, "big_chances_created": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.0414, "ball_carries": 13.9012, "total_progression": 47.0373, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "key_pass": 0.7732, "shots_off_target": 0.1733, "opponent_faced": "Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0488 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1102 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0991 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.5868, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.099095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062548 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.055193 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.012858 } ], "others_margin": -0.007644 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.864261150360107, "model_output": 6.8643, "scale": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1855, "tackles": 1.5549, "tackles_won": 0.86, "clearances": 6.2163, "aerial_won": 2.2101, "total_shots": 0.581, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.581 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9901, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2168, "tackles": 1.5549, "tackles_won": 0.8691, "clearances": 6.2163, "aerial_won": 2.2101, "total_shots": 0.5432, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1759, "fouls_drawn": 1.0759, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.581 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.065, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2168, "tackles": 1.5549, "tackles_won": 0.8691, "clearances": 6.2163, "aerial_won": 2.2101, "total_shots": 0.581, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1759, "fouls_drawn": 1.0759, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.581, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2168, "tackles": 1.5549, "tackles_won": 0.8691, "clearances": 6.2163, "aerial_won": 2.2101, "total_shots": 0.581, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1759, "fouls_drawn": 1.0759, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.581, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8306 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.5844, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059366 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022583 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018738 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.016565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015085 } ], "others_margin": 0.007273 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.901782512664795, "model_output": 6.9018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.236, "fouls_drawn": 0.2335, "blocks": 0.9324, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0426, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0719, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "shots_on_target": 0.1962, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "xgot": 0.0535, "ball_carries": 20.3956, "total_progression": 66.5027, "progressive_carries": 0.6405, "key_pass": 0.2257, "shots_off_target": 0.3866, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to 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"margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057652 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038553 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015095 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009731 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009053 } ], "others_margin": -0.0512 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.716081142425537, "model_output": 6.7161, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9878, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.1292, "clearances": 4.0437, "aerial_won": 1.3712, "total_shots": 0.4357, "rating": 6.7161, "minutes": 80.24, "total_pass": 34.3791, "accurate_pass": 29.7156, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.7917, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7555, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6452, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0704, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5017, "possession_lost": 8.2566, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.4357 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0483)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9995, "tackles": 1.7629, "tackles_won": 1.1043, "clearances": 4.0437, "aerial_won": 1.3712, "total_shots": 0.4444, "rating": 6.7161, "minutes": 80.24, "total_pass": 34.3791, "accurate_pass": 29.7156, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.7917, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7555, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6452, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0704, "crosses_total": 1.1511, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5017, "possession_lost": 8.2566, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3734, "fouls_drawn": 0.6157, "blocks": 0.1068, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.4357 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0483, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8916, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9219, "goals_prevented": 0.054, "rating": 7.0331, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.2477, "accurate_pass": 28.086, "total_long_balls": 15.3907, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4809, "touches": 45.7826, "clearances": 0.6412, "ball_recovery": 6.993, "high_claims": 1.1962, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1221, "sweeper_actions": 0.8669, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8669, "saves_inside_box": 1.4393, "possession_lost": 10.4793, "duels_won": 0.3111, "duels_lost": 0.0307, "total_contest": 0.0296, "won_contest": 0.0296, "fouls": 0.0013, "fouls_drawn": 0.1578, "total_own_half_passes": 27.6833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8631 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 2.923, "goals_prevented": 0.054, "rating": 7.0331, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.2477, "accurate_pass": 28.086, "total_long_balls": 15.3907, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4809, "touches": 45.7826, "clearances": 0.6412, "ball_recovery": 6.993, "high_claims": 1.1962, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1221, "sweeper_actions": 0.8669, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8669, "saves_inside_box": 1.4393, "possession_lost": 10.4793, "duels_won": 0.3111, "duels_lost": 0.0307, "total_contest": 0.0296, "won_contest": 0.0296, "fouls": 0.0013, "fouls_drawn": 0.1556, "total_own_half_passes": 27.6833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8631 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0961 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0745 } ], "others": 0.1615, "total": 1.4041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243063 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.123033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088442 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085822 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.061806 } ], "others_margin": 0.122194 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.852736473083496, "model_output": 6.8527, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1468, "goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1383, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.1487, "expected_assists": 0.1163, "key_pass": 1.394, "rating": 6.8527, "minutes": 68.99, "total_pass": 24.0286, "accurate_pass": 20.1298, "duels_won": 4.522, "total_long_balls": 2.5611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6175, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.328, "crosses_total": 2.4932, "crosses_accurate": 0.9954, "touches": 37.532, "possession_lost": 7.9992, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.8687, "aerial_lost": 0.0973, "total_contest": 1.5105, "won_contest": 0.8323, "ball_recovery": 1.9449, "challenges_lost": 0.8117, "fouls": 1.8371, "fouls_drawn": 1.6069, "assists": 0.0827, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "interceptions": 0.2728, 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"model_output": 0.1935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.239 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.1935, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.23902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016927 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010192 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009005 }, { "name": "totalProgression", 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.2059, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7871 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1369 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.3796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.839841 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.25986 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.098183 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.088111 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.051443 } ], "others_margin": -0.059954 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19132313132286072, "model_output": 0.1913, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.086 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.1913, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.17599 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.085956 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.024793 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.01745 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01082 } ], "others_margin": -0.003508 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.650934219360352, "model_output": 6.6509, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", 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"contribution": -0.1429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.0731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.576907 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.412726 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.139839 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.083902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053926 } ], "others_margin": -0.22808 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.304354727268219, "model_output": 0.3044, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0342, "total": 0.3044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324432 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041187 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022006 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02153 } ], "others_margin": -0.034231 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7425456047058105, "model_output": 6.7425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 6.7425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097952 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024999 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019194 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014124 } ], "others_margin": -0.014054 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.605)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3162, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assists": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0283, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.0734, "total_shots": 0.3058, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 18.28, "total_pass": 13.3699, "accurate_pass": 12.1358, "duels_won": 1.2868, "total_long_balls": 0.6623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3894, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0445, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0912, "crosses_total": 0.168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0276, "touches": 16.9231, "possession_lost": 1.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_won": 0.1285, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1152, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "tackles": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.2889, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.7778, "blocks": 0.2384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1014, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.844, "total_progression": 4.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2324 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17400000, "quality_factor": 0.6047, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.035, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.63, "projection_minutes": 18.28, "minutes_scale": 1.2382, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.035, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "creation_factor": 1.1724 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0142 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0225, "after": 0.0088 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.0312 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.348, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.369367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.237661 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048143 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.031224 } ], "others_margin": -0.011271 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708006381988525, "model_output": 6.708, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0839 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1146545, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1141, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 1, 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"Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0302, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5662, "combined_rank_score": 3934.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.609, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oleksandr Svatok", "ranking": 5657 }, { "player_name": "Dimitar Mitov", "ranking": 5658 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Dávila", "ranking": 5659 }, { "player_name": "Ulrik Saltnes", "ranking": 5660 }, { "player_name": "Kareem Tunde", "ranking": 5661 } ], "lower": [ { 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2514 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.3306, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461243 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078511 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058831 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.048842 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034065 } ], "others_margin": -0.040275 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.609046459197998, "model_output": 6.609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.072 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072034 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03126 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011443 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009202 } ], "others_margin": -0.024868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0671, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.8465, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 5.5993, "accurate_pass": 4.7555, "duels_won": 0.6774, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9729, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3948, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5283, "possession_lost": 1.0696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3608, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.2258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.804, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.1919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4516, "clearances": 0.2656, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3125, "xgot": 0.1579, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7031, "total_progression": 3.1866, "progressive_carries": 0.4177, "shots_off_target": 0.5111 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goals": 0.0997, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 17.12, "minutes_scale": 1.4853, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goals": 0.0997, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.1141, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0135, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0977, "after": 0.0476 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0456, "after": 0.019 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029317 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024511 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014274 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01278 } ], "others_margin": -0.045707 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2327, "total_shots": 0.6735, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.3066, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 6.0336, "accurate_pass": 4.7997, "duels_won": 1.9986, "total_long_balls": 0.2083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1367, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4274, "crosses_total": 1.943, "crosses_accurate": 0.3622, "touches": 14.1784, "possession_lost": 5.5814, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.691, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.6981, "won_contest": 1.015, "ball_recovery": 0.8045, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6161, "fouls_drawn": 0.7031, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1854, "tackles": 0.1854, "clearances": 0.1442, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1311, "big_chances_missed": 0.0486, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.0378, "total_progression": 52.5866, "progressive_carries": 2.2875, "shots_off_target": 0.4407 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 23.79, "minutes_scale": 1.0687, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1109, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0546, "after": 0.0266 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0387, "after": 0.0162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1109, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.1141, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 4.7332, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.7592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0135, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0977, "after": 0.0476 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0456, "after": 0.019 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.1141, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4982, "total_shots": 1.2574, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0.4891, "rating": 6.609, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.3169, "accurate_pass": 7.0636, "duels_won": 1.0062, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6675, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0213, "aerial_lost": 0.2258, "total_contest": 0.3354, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1942, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4642, "xgot": 0.1141, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2327, "total_shots": 0.6735, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "key_pass": 0.3066, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 6.0336, "accurate_pass": 4.7997, "duels_won": 1.9986, "total_long_balls": 0.2083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1367, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4274, "crosses_total": 1.943, "crosses_accurate": 0.3622, "touches": 14.1784, "possession_lost": 5.5814, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.691, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.6981, "won_contest": 1.015, "ball_recovery": 0.8045, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6161, "fouls_drawn": 0.7031, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1854, "tackles": 0.1854, "clearances": 0.1442, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1311, "big_chances_missed": 0.0486, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.0378, "total_progression": 52.5866, "progressive_carries": 2.2875, "shots_off_target": 0.4407 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 23.79, "minutes_scale": 1.0687, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0056, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1109, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0546, "after": 0.0266 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0387, "after": 0.0162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 0.0519, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4526, "total_progression": 56.199, "progressive_carries": 2.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.471, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1109, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "total_shots": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.3277, "rating": 6.6525, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.4481, "accurate_pass": 5.1294, "duels_won": 2.1359, "total_long_balls": 0.2226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6628, "crosses_total": 2.0765, "crosses_accurate": 0.3871, "touches": 15.1524, "possession_lost": 5.9648, "dispossessed": 1.0922, "duels_lost": 2.8759, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8148, "won_contest": 1.0847, "ball_recovery": 0.8598, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6584, "fouls_drawn": 0.7514, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "tackles": 0.1981, "clearances": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1401, "big_chances_missed": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 6.7425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097952 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024999 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019194 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014124 } ], "others_margin": -0.014054 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.605)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3162, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assists": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0283, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.0734, "total_shots": 0.3058, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 18.28, "total_pass": 13.3699, "accurate_pass": 12.1358, "duels_won": 1.2868, "total_long_balls": 0.6623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3894, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0445, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0912, "crosses_total": 0.168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0276, "touches": 16.9231, "possession_lost": 1.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_won": 0.1285, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1152, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "tackles": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.2889, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.7778, "blocks": 0.2384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1014, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.844, "total_progression": 4.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2324 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17400000, "quality_factor": 0.6047, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.035, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.63, "projection_minutes": 18.28, "minutes_scale": 1.2382, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.035, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.66 (squad xG sum 0.7603, xG scale 0.8616, xA scale 0.7390, team xA 0.52 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "creation_factor": 1.1724 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.655, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7603, "squad_xa_sum": 0.709, "team_expected_assists": 0.524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8616, "xa_scale": 0.739, "opponent_lambda": 2.903, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0142 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0225, "after": 0.0088 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "creation_factor": 1.1724, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2842, "fifa_rank": 1246.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "creation_factor": 1.1724, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.051, "scorer_weight": 0.0177, "squad_weight_total": 0.6442, "weight_share": 0.0274, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3915, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "assist_rate": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0909, "total_shots": 0.3787, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0087, "finishing_factor": 1.2438, "creation_factor": 1.1724, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0087, "assist_rate": 0.035, "provider_weight": 0.0103, "squad_weight_total": 0.457, "weight_share": 0.0226, "creation_factor": 1.1724, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.66, "expected_assists": 0.52, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 458, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.1848, "xg_multiplier": 0.999, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (LW) is evenly matched against José María Giménez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 107000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.438, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.295, "xg_multiplier": 1.2394, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Lucas Noubi and Ximo Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€107M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.295 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.438, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.336, "xg_contribution": 0.3273, "xg_multiplier": 1.2001, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.664 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.664 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Lucas Noubi and Ximo Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.327 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.438, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.2207, "xg_multiplier": 1.211, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Lucas Noubi and Ximo Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.438, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "xg_contribution": 0.1988, "xg_multiplier": 1.1703, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.684 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.684 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (ST) is slightly favored against Lucas Noubi and Ximo Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.199 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Morten Hjulmand", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Diego Villares" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.599, "xg_contribution": 0.061, "xg_multiplier": 1.263, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Villares", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.401 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morten Hjulmand (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Diego Villares in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.26 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Diego Villares" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "xg_contribution": 0.0753, "xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Villares", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.397 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Diego Villares in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Jan Oblak" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.59, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "xg_contribution": 0.0521, "xg_multiplier": 0.7523, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Oblak", "role": "GK", "market_value": 16000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Oblak in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1083, "xg_multiplier": 0.7932, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1913, "xg_multiplier": 0.7121, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luismi Cruz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0949, "xg_multiplier": 0.6463, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luismi Cruz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.65 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Diego Villares", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "xg_contribution": 0.0485, "xg_multiplier": 0.737, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Villares (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.0245, "xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.774, "away_midfield_power": 0.478, "home_creative_power": 0.865, "away_creative_power": 0.456, "home_defensive_power": 0.939, "away_defensive_power": 0.488, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.618, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Soriano", "Diego Villares", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 54.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Barrios vs Lorenzo Amatucci", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.046, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.95 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.903, "away_lambda": 0.655, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Noubi", "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Diego Villares", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Diego Villares", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Villares": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Jan Oblak", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luismi Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Pablo Barrios vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.36, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1334, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0071, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9189, "home_midfield_factor": 1.046, "away_midfield_factor": 0.95, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7813, "away_avg_quality": 0.4795, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3018, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.9512, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.7287, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.9189, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6088, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3349, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1948, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.3629, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.3597 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.046, "result": 1.4222 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4222 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.6356 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.046, "result": 1.7108 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9821, "result": 1.6802 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.692 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1334, "result": 1.8254 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.8254, "result": 1.8254, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6088, "factor": 1.3349, "pre": 1.8254, "result": 2.4367 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.4367 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.657 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 2.657 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.657, "result": 2.657, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 2.657, "result": 2.7898, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1572, "pre": 2.7898, "result": 3.228 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.228 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8992, "input_total": 3.558, "result": 2.9025 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.9025, "result": 2.903, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.903 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5196, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7272 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.6908 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6908 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6908 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9085, "result": 0.6276 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 0.5951 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9189, "result": 0.5468 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.5468 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.5468, "result": 0.6, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": true }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6088, "factor": 0.8052, "pre": 0.6, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1583, "result": 0.8083 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.8083 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8083, "result": 0.808, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 0.808, "result": 0.7676, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9491, "pre": 0.7676, "result": 0.729 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.729 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8992, "input_total": 3.558, "result": 0.6555 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.6555, "result": 0.655, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.655 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1583, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6088, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1572, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9491, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.7898, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.7676, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.657, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8083, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.903, "final_away_lambda": 0.655 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.046, "attack_index": 1.219, "defense_concede_index": 0.901, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.87, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 2.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9085, "attack_index": 0.931, "defense_concede_index": 0.861, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 2.01 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.657, Away 0.808). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.903, Away 0.655 (most likely score 2-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.903, "away_lambda": 0.655, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.657, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.808 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:32:58Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }