{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1312, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1158, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0999, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2779, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1312 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1158 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0999 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0922 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0836 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0922, "0-1": 0.0999, "0-2": 0.0562, "0-3": 0.0208, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1158, "1-1": 0.1312, "1-2": 0.0722, "1-3": 0.0267, "1-4": 0.0074, "1-5": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0752, "2-1": 0.0836, "2-2": 0.0464, "2-3": 0.0172, "2-4": 0.0048, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0323, "3-1": 0.0358, "3-2": 0.0199, "3-3": 0.0074, "3-4": 0.002, "4-0": 0.0104, "4-1": 0.0115, "4-2": 0.0064, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0027, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0016, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4035, "draw": 0.2779, "away_win": 0.3186 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4295, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5705, "btts_yes": 0.4866, "btts_no": 0.5134, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3292, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2764 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.74, "GK": 6.94 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 7.08 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano 4W-2D-4L vs Elche over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Álvaro García, Fernando Niño", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Federico Redondo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.286, "away_lambda": 1.111, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1312, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4035, "draw": 0.2779, "away_win": 0.3186 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4035, "fair_spread": 0.175, "fair_total": 2.397, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.286, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.111, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4295, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4866, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3292, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2764, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Álvaro García (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2819, "probability": 0.2457, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.4105, "probability": 0.3367, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Unai López (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1811, "probability": 0.1656, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roy Revivo (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1728, "probability": 0.1587, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.397, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 816, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4035, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.17 goals and fair total 2.40.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Elche chance creation leans on Fernando Niño against Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Álvaro García; bench watchlist: Jorge de Frutos, Pedro Díaz.", "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Fernando Niño; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Rafa Mir.", "Assist usage should flow through Adrià Pedrosa, Roy Revivo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.20 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Mujaid Sadick": { "player_id": 935309, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 185, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 53, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 45, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0053, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9225, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421072, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 52, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 256, "combined_rank_score": 196.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7981, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Raum", "ranking": 251 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Carvallo", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Seong-Jin Kang", "ranking": 255 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking": 257 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.0556, "tackles_won": 0.6308, "clearances": 4.4002, "aerial_won": 1.7627, "total_shots": 0.3881, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 56.1856, "accurate_pass": 53.3022, "duels_won": 2.8358, "total_long_balls": 2.4451, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6113, "total_own_half_passes": 45.7473, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45.0282, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2741, "crosses_total": 0.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.0214, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0087, "aerial_lost": 1.3392, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 2.7191, "challenges_lost": 0.2809, "fouls": 0.3887, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "blocks": 0.5617, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.0, "total_progression": 19.4875, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3881 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-19", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.6415, "aerialWon": 1.6276, "totalClearance_p90": 5.0363, "totalTackle": 0.3138, "defensive_actions": 1.1211 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9287604689598083, "model_output": 0.9288, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1071 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0313, "total": 0.9288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117293 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039085 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.031106 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021036 } ], "others_margin": 0.034292 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.0556018352508545, "model_output": 1.0556, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1792 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1574 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0951 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0743 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0531 } ], "others": -0.1268, "total": 1.0556, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121854 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.106181 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.070074 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.058383 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043924 } ], "others_margin": -0.113481 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6307718753814697, "model_output": 0.6308, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0944 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0682 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0787, "total": 0.6308, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.126831 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119398 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.084799 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.052781 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.029784 } ], "others_margin": -0.117613 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.4001922607421875, "model_output": 4.4002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4791 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.373 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.354 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3122 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 4.4002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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], "others": 0.0074, "total": 1.7627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102569 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.071701 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049981 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034966 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.022436 } ], "others_margin": 0.004274 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3881280720233917, "model_output": 0.3881, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.3881, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090751 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048612 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025131 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.018103 } ], "others_margin": -0.01155 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.798078536987305, "model_output": 6.7981, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 6.7981, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017199 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016139 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01475 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014098 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.01285 } ], "others_margin": 0.02753 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8908, "total_progression": 19.3355, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3851 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8908, "total_progression": 19.3355, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3851 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8908, "total_progression": 19.3355, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8908, "total_progression": 19.3355, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8908, "total_progression": 19.3355, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9225 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, "opponent_lambda": 1.111, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.5573, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9215, "tackles": 1.0474, "tackles_won": 0.6259, "clearances": 4.3659, "aerial_won": 1.749, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 85.11, "total_pass": 55.7474, "accurate_pass": 52.8864, "duels_won": 2.8137, "total_long_balls": 2.426, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6065, "total_own_half_passes": 45.3905, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2096, "crosses_total": 0.3857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4908, "possession_lost": 3.2466, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.993, "aerial_lost": 1.3288, "total_contest": 0.2787, "won_contest": 0.2787, "ball_recovery": 2.6979, "challenges_lost": 0.2787, "fouls": 0.3857, 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"margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.097429 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.05812 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.037605 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.025467 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.024105 } ], "others_margin": 0.086375 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1718, "tackles": 1.5841, "tackles_won": 0.9638, "clearances": 6.2728, "aerial_won": 2.3718, "total_shots": 1.1128, "rating": 7.0685, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.3801, "accurate_pass": 52.3205, "duels_won": 5.2256, "total_long_balls": 8.0844, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1035, "total_own_half_passes": 36.5857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0148, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3059, "crosses_total": 0.0681, "crosses_accurate": 0.0461, "touches": 77.2374, "possession_lost": 8.8195, "dispossessed": 0.1826, "duels_lost": 3.4043, "aerial_lost": 1.7235, "total_contest": 0.3532, "won_contest": 0.2057, "ball_recovery": 4.9716, "challenges_lost": 0.4486, "fouls": 1.0382, "fouls_drawn": 0.8682, "blocks": 0.8505, "goals": 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1.0377, "fouls_drawn": 0.8655, "blocks": 0.8505, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "assists": 0.011, "assist_rate": 0.011, "expected_goals": 0.0751, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0133, "xgot": 0.0562, "ball_carries": 19.6471, "total_progression": 86.9351, "progressive_carries": 0.9504, "key_pass": 0.2137, "shots_off_target": 0.7711 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1916, "tackles": 1.5841, "tackles_won": 0.9775, "clearances": 6.2728, "aerial_won": 2.3718, "total_shots": 1.1202, "rating": 7.0685, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.3801, "accurate_pass": 52.3205, "duels_won": 5.2256, "total_long_balls": 8.0844, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1035, "total_own_half_passes": 36.5857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0148, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7945, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6506, "tackles": 1.5172, "tackles_won": 1.0064, "clearances": 2.4256, "aerial_won": 0.8301, "total_shots": 0.3318, "rating": 6.608, "minutes": 79.67, "total_pass": 26.1069, "accurate_pass": 20.8437, "duels_won": 3.289, "total_long_balls": 3.0265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9478, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8832, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9606, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.0733, "touches": 44.6963, "possession_lost": 8.7381, "dispossessed": 0.1015, "duels_lost": 3.1034, "aerial_lost": 0.9658, "total_contest": 0.7388, "won_contest": 0.4438, "ball_recovery": 2.7273, "challenges_lost": 0.8335, "fouls": 0.9075, "fouls_drawn": 0.613, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1114, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.6, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1114 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1114, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.6, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1114, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.6, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, "opponent_lambda": 1.111, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3927, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1114, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.6, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1308, "fifa_rank": 925.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, 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"squad_weight_total": 1.3418, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3041, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3041, "runner_up": "Alemão", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2567 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8903, "goals_prevented": -0.0887, "rating": 6.9363, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.4559, "accurate_pass": 20.8227, "total_long_balls": 13.0124, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0577, "touches": 42.6313, "clearances": 1.7533, "ball_recovery": 8.3649, "high_claims": 1.5441, "punches": 0.9887, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "sweeper_actions": 0.2777, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2777, "saves_inside_box": 1.9414, "possession_lost": 10.6333, "duels_won": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0847, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", 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"importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1907 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0362, "total": 0.7201, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.190705 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05853 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033476 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017404 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.016108 } ], "others_margin": -0.036208 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696369647979736, "model_output": 6.6964, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8157, "tackles": 1.808, "tackles_won": 1.1667, "clearances": 2.5224, "aerial_won": 0.7093, "total_shots": 0.7182, "rating": 6.6964, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 30.4592, "accurate_pass": 25.1015, "duels_won": 4.0789, "total_long_balls": 3.2176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.971, "total_own_half_passes": 14.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8088, "crosses_total": 2.9571, "crosses_accurate": 0.6183, "touches": 53.9249, "possession_lost": 11.6373, "dispossessed": 0.4599, "duels_lost": 4.3034, "aerial_lost": 0.3428, "total_contest": 1.5364, "won_contest": 0.5024, "ball_recovery": 2.6172, "challenges_lost": 1.3014, "fouls": 1.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.9941, "blocks": 0.2096, "goals": 0.123, 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0.097134 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028843 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026951 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022561 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019079 } ], "others_margin": 0.031459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7423, "expected_assists": 0.1442, "assists": 0.1127, "assist_rate": 0.1127, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goals": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.086, "shots_on_target": 0.2965, "total_shots": 1.0254, "rating": 7.0821, "minutes": 79.95, "total_pass": 60.3977, "accurate_pass": 52.934, "duels_won": 3.6064, "total_long_balls": 7.6041, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8275, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8577, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0763, "crosses_total": 4.45, "crosses_accurate": 1.0178, "touches": 74.5293, "possession_lost": 12.2011, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.3832, "aerial_won": 0.3743, "aerial_lost": 0.7149, "interceptions": 0.8439, "tackles_won": 1.3328, "tackles": 1.8611, "clearances": 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1.0254, "after": 1.0155 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1166, "after": 1.1241 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7423, "expected_assists": 0.1442, "assists": 0.1158, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "total_shots": 1.0259, "rating": 7.0821, "minutes": 79.95, "total_pass": 60.3977, "accurate_pass": 52.934, "duels_won": 3.6064, "total_long_balls": 7.6041, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8275, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8577, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0763, "crosses_total": 4.4522, "crosses_accurate": 1.0178, "touches": 74.5293, "possession_lost": 12.2011, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.3832, "aerial_won": 0.3743, "aerial_lost": 0.7149, "interceptions": 0.8412, "tackles_won": 1.3373, "tackles": 1.8611, "clearances": 0.7036, 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midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matías Dituro", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matías Dituro", "market_value": 105000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0585 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3743, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0259, "after": 0.9354 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7289, "after": 0.6646 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.297, "after": 0.2708 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0848, "after": 0.0773 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0642, "after": 0.0585 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7423, "expected_assists": 0.1442, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2708, "total_shots": 0.9354, "rating": 7.0821, "minutes": 79.95, "total_pass": 60.3977, "accurate_pass": 52.934, "duels_won": 3.6064, "total_long_balls": 7.6041, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8275, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8577, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0763, "crosses_total": 4.4522, "crosses_accurate": 1.0178, "touches": 74.5293, "possession_lost": 12.2011, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.3832, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.7149, "interceptions": 0.8412, "tackles_won": 1.3373, "tackles": 1.8611, "clearances": 0.7036, 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equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7423, "expected_assists": 0.1811, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2708, "total_shots": 0.9354, "rating": 7.0821, "minutes": 79.95, "total_pass": 60.3977, "accurate_pass": 52.934, "duels_won": 3.6064, "total_long_balls": 7.6041, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8275, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8577, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0763, "crosses_total": 4.4522, "crosses_accurate": 1.0178, "touches": 74.5293, "possession_lost": 12.2011, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.3832, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.7149, "interceptions": 0.8412, "tackles_won": 1.3373, "tackles": 1.8611, "clearances": 0.7036, "total_contest": 0.6638, "won_contest": 0.4189, "challenges_lost": 0.8346, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.9478, "blocks": 0.4874, "big_chances_created": 0.3072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0372, "ball_carries": 21.3586, "total_progression": 54.2411, "progressive_carries": 0.8796, "shots_off_target": 0.6646, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matías Dituro", "opponent_faced": "Matías Dituro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8538 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, 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1956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7423, "expected_assists": 0.1811, "assist_rate": 0.1158, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2708, "total_shots": 0.9354, "rating": 7.0821, "minutes": 79.95, "total_pass": 60.3977, "accurate_pass": 52.934, "duels_won": 3.6064, "total_long_balls": 7.6041, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8275, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8577, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0763, "crosses_total": 4.4522, "crosses_accurate": 1.0178, "touches": 74.5293, "possession_lost": 12.2011, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.3832, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.7149, "interceptions": 0.8412, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.005 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.0787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256059 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079266 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.063441 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.062953 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.062449 } ], "others_margin": -0.039951 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8145186901092529, "model_output": 0.8145, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0281 } ], "others": -0.0375, "total": 0.8145, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.263377 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065734 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05538 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.017522 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010916 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0103 } ], "others_margin": -0.024596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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6.7469, "minutes": 81.22, "total_pass": 8.3723, "accurate_pass": 6.801, "duels_won": 0.4308, "total_long_balls": 0.2269, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8205, "crosses_total": 2.1091, "crosses_accurate": 0.3568, "touches": 16.9495, "possession_lost": 6.5316, "dispossessed": 0.5591, "duels_lost": 2.7119, "aerial_lost": 0.5836, "total_contest": 0.8216, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1175, "challenges_lost": 0.5547, "fouls": 0.1928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4308, "clearances": 0.4197, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.1912, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7321, "total_progression": 46.2783, "progressive_carries": 3.1185, "shots_off_target": 0.8609, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8993, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, 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"xg_override": 0.1388 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5468, "after": 1.391 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9573, "after": 0.8609 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5894, "after": 0.53 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2126, "after": 0.1912 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2012, "after": 0.1809 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1543, "after": 0.1388 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0539 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1809, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.53, "total_shots": 1.391, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "key_pass": 0.8063, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 81.22, "total_pass": 8.3723, "accurate_pass": 6.801, "duels_won": 0.4308, "total_long_balls": 0.2269, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8205, "crosses_total": 2.1091, "crosses_accurate": 0.3568, "touches": 16.9495, "possession_lost": 6.5316, "dispossessed": 0.5591, "duels_lost": 2.7119, "aerial_lost": 0.5836, "total_contest": 0.8216, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1175, "challenges_lost": 0.5547, "fouls": 0.1928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4308, "clearances": 0.4197, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.1912, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7321, "total_progression": 46.2783, "progressive_carries": 3.1185, "shots_off_target": 0.8609, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8993, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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2.1091, "crosses_accurate": 0.3568, "touches": 16.9495, "possession_lost": 6.5316, "dispossessed": 0.5591, "duels_lost": 2.7119, "aerial_lost": 0.5836, "total_contest": 0.8216, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1175, "challenges_lost": 0.5547, "fouls": 0.1928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4308, "clearances": 0.4197, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.1912, "xgot": 0.0677, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7321, "total_progression": 46.2783, "progressive_carries": 3.1185, "shots_off_target": 0.8609, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8993, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Roy Revivo, Buba Sangaré", "opponent_faced": "Roy Revivo, Buba 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"model_output": 6.6744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0676, "total": 6.6745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046425 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025118 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017182 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01686 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.0773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.21078 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.127019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10997 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.103723 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.048269 } ], "others_margin": 0.044224 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8153524398803711, "model_output": 0.8154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1876 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 } ], "others": 0.0284, "total": 0.8154, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243508 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.056306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050603 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041393 } ], "others_margin": 0.035423 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793478965759277, "model_output": 6.7935, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 6.7935, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051833 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.029914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019871 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017719 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009415 } ], "others_margin": -0.049285 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2536, "goals": 0.2766, "goal_rate": 0.2766, "shots_on_target": 0.7233, "total_shots": 1.9809, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 0.8135, "rating": 6.7935, "minutes": 80.45, "total_pass": 16.8706, "accurate_pass": 11.5252, "duels_won": 2.1199, "total_long_balls": 1.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6851, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4595, "crosses_total": 3.3337, "crosses_accurate": 0.9083, "touches": 30.3151, "possession_lost": 9.973, "dispossessed": 0.266, "duels_lost": 2.6505, "aerial_lost": 1.0214, "total_contest": 0.6564, "won_contest": 0.2074, "ball_recovery": 2.8153, "challenges_lost": 0.446, "fouls": 0.4681, "fouls_drawn": 0.408, "assists": 0.248, "assist_rate": 0.248, "interceptions": 0.9045, "tackles_won": 0.5874, "tackles": 1.046, "clearances": 1.1706, "blocks": 0.2262, "big_chances_created": 0.3122, "big_chances_missed": 0.3047, "xgot": 0.3353, "offsides": 0.3058, "ball_carries": 7.3241, "total_progression": 22.9562, "progressive_carries": 1.3183, "shots_off_target": 1.2576 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2536, "goals": 0.278, "goal_rate": 0.278, "shots_on_target": 0.72, "total_shots": 1.9686, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 0.8135, "rating": 6.7935, "minutes": 80.45, "total_pass": 16.8706, "accurate_pass": 11.5252, "duels_won": 2.1199, "total_long_balls": 1.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6851, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4595, "crosses_total": 3.3242, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roy Revivo, Buba Sangaré", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8846, "skill_edge": -0.0185, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4785, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "market_value": 4600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4761 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "market_value": 4900000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4809 } ], "xg_override": 0.2243 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9776, "after": 1.7494 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2576, "after": 1.1125 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.72, "after": 0.6369 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3353, "after": 0.2966 }, { 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.7611, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022954 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.011361 } ], "others_margin": -0.028114 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1908, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "shots_on_target": 0.4786, "total_shots": 1.5077, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.3076, "accurate_pass": 19.336, "duels_won": 3.9833, "total_long_balls": 1.6989, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8819, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1814, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1546, "crosses_total": 2.6242, "crosses_accurate": 0.6455, "touches": 37.4903, "possession_lost": 9.4897, "dispossessed": 1.089, "duels_lost": 4.6478, "aerial_won": 0.8711, "aerial_lost": 0.8002, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.223, "clearances": 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14081804, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3811 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1585, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9355, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Avellaneda", "ranking": 1590 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", 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"trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 14.1036, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8803, "saves": 2.2931, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1223, "save_contribution": 2.3862, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.8629 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7378814220428467, "model_output": 2.7379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": 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0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0267, "total": -0.0916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03564 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.021903 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.017647 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.017573 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015032 } ], "others_margin": -0.026655 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9355363845825195, "model_output": 6.9355, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.9355, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.02087 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019972 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015722 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013539 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.011737 } ], "others_margin": -0.02839 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7346, "goals_prevented": -0.0915, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0476, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, 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"contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.4036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.261061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.136835 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.04552 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.024558 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.024269 } ], "others_margin": 0.007658 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.803356647491455, "model_output": 6.8034, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.8034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024018 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021817 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012548 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.010836 } ], "others_margin": -0.004688 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3461, "tackles": 0.7096, "tackles_won": 0.4788, "clearances": 0.9013, "aerial_won": 0.2941, "total_shots": 0.4055, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 17.23, "total_pass": 10.0576, "accurate_pass": 8.0151, "duels_won": 1.0047, "total_long_balls": 0.6894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3896, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6256, "crosses_total": 1.3895, "crosses_accurate": 0.3872, "touches": 17.8597, "possession_lost": 4.6113, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.2985, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.7367, "won_contest": 0.7367, "ball_recovery": 1.9621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4214, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1711, "total_progression": 1.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.1936, "key_pass": 0.3872, "shots_off_target": 0.4055 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3437, "tackles": 0.7096, "tackles_won": 0.4761, "clearances": 0.9013, "aerial_won": 0.2941, "total_shots": 0.4035, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 17.23, "total_pass": 10.0576, "accurate_pass": 8.0151, "duels_won": 1.0047, "total_long_balls": 0.6894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3896, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6256, "crosses_total": 1.3827, "crosses_accurate": 0.3872, "touches": 17.8597, "possession_lost": 4.6113, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.2985, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.7367, "won_contest": 0.7367, "ball_recovery": 1.9621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4174, "fouls_drawn": 0.0018, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1711, "total_progression": 1.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.1936, "key_pass": 0.3872, "shots_off_target": 0.4055 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1914, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3895, "after": 1.3827 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2875, "tackles": 0.5937, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.754, "aerial_won": 0.2461, "total_shots": 0.3393, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.42, "projection_minutes": 17.23, "minutes_scale": 0.8366, "appearance_probability": 0.234 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2875, "tackles": 0.5937, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.754, "aerial_won": 0.2461, "total_shots": 0.3393, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2875, "tackles": 0.5937, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.754, "aerial_won": 0.2461, "total_shots": 0.3393, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3263, "total_progression": 1.4099, "progressive_carries": 0.162, "key_pass": 0.3239, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.234, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2875, "tackles": 0.5937, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.754, "aerial_won": 0.2461, "total_shots": 0.3393, "rating": 6.8034, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.4144, "accurate_pass": 6.7056, "duels_won": 0.8406, "total_long_balls": 0.5768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9992, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7065, "crosses_total": 1.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3239, "touches": 14.9419, "possession_lost": 3.8579, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.0864, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.6163, "won_contest": 0.6163, "ball_recovery": 1.6415, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 188, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6161, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 1.8617, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, 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"LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083330, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2470, "combined_rank_score": 1236.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 890.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1582.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6161, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdul Mumin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Finley Welch", "ranking": 2465 }, { "player_name": "Dennis Salanović", "ranking": 2466 }, { "player_name": "Hyo-jun Lee", "ranking": 2467 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Minda", "ranking": 2468 }, { "player_name": "Jonnathan Mina", "ranking": 2469 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristiyan Stoyanov", "ranking": 2471 }, { "player_name": "Vladislav Kalinin", "ranking": 2472 }, { "player_name": "Martin Valjent", "ranking": 2473 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Hrádecký", "ranking": 2474 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Medina", "ranking": 2475 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", 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}, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.068063 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.051607 } ], "others_margin": -0.038011 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0880433320999146, "model_output": 1.088, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1844 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1403 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1024 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0748 } ], "others": 0.0188, "total": 1.088, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.015453 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.260105 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.136894 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.098017 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.072498 } ], "others_margin": 0.017441 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.40876930952072144, "model_output": 0.4088, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8278 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1722 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0296 } ], "others": 0.0562, "total": 0.4088, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.910389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.36947 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.103091 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.095071 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.080586 } ], "others_margin": 0.148045 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16309703886508942, "model_output": 0.1631, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0658 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 0.1631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.1936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065751 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023134 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021333 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019071 } ], "others_margin": 0.011046 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.616133689880371, "model_output": 6.6161, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.1017, "total": 6.6161, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039704 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020779 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016861 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014546 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014504 } ], "others_margin": -0.101579 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9878, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3151, "tackles": 0.4137, "tackles_won": 0.2944, "clearances": 1.0748, "aerial_won": 0.4038, "total_shots": 0.1611, "rating": 6.6161, "minutes": 13.23, "total_pass": 13.1668, "accurate_pass": 11.3534, "duels_won": 0.384, "total_long_balls": 1.4293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5855, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7679, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.12, "possession_lost": 1.8134, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6614, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9388, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6614, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.7103, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3371, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1611 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9878, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.2 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3235, "tackles": 0.4247, "tackles_won": 0.3022, "clearances": 1.1034, "aerial_won": 0.4145, "total_shots": 0.1654, "rating": 6.6161, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 13.5172, "accurate_pass": 11.6555, "duels_won": 0.3942, "total_long_balls": 1.4673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5462, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8672, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.971, 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"tackles": 0.4247, "tackles_won": 0.3022, "clearances": 1.1034, "aerial_won": 0.4145, "total_shots": 0.1654, "rating": 6.6161, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 13.5172, "accurate_pass": 11.6555, "duels_won": 0.3942, "total_long_balls": 1.4673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5462, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8672, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5756, "possession_lost": 1.8617, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.679, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9638, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.679, "fouls_drawn": 0.3942, "blocks": 0.7292, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4525, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3235, "tackles": 0.4247, "tackles_won": 0.3022, "clearances": 1.1034, "aerial_won": 0.4145, "total_shots": 0.1654, "rating": 6.6161, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 13.5172, "accurate_pass": 11.6555, "duels_won": 0.3942, "total_long_balls": 1.4673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5462, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8672, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5756, "possession_lost": 1.8617, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.679, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9638, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.679, "fouls_drawn": 0.3942, "blocks": 0.7292, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4525, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1585 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 0.2674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.666113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.288606 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101273 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.083298 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041116 } ], "others_margin": 0.035658 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3228962421417236, "model_output": 1.3229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6445 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5195 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0426 } ], "others": 0.05, "total": 1.3229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.644469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519456 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.059448 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049016 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042588 } ], "others_margin": 0.049935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740901947021484, "model_output": 6.7409, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 6.7409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091883 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038102 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036264 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005606 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.004615 } ], "others_margin": -0.024114 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7323, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0733, "assist_rate": 0.0733, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.2668, "total_shots": 1.32, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1815, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4282, "fouls_drawn": 0.5651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0532 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7323, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0901, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "shots_on_target": 0.2662, "total_shots": 1.3169, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1823, "tackles_won": 0.1927, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4284, "fouls_drawn": 0.5638, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0532 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2649, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "assists": 0.0708, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.09, "projection_minutes": 23.84, "minutes_scale": 0.9685, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "assists": 0.0708, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0255, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1499, "creation_factor": 1.239 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, "opponent_lambda": 1.111, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0694, "after": 0.0603 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0475, "after": 0.0413 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0255, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1499, "creation_factor": 1.239, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3649, "fifa_rank": 2400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2578, "total_shots": 1.2779, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1866, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0308, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.376602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.256897 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.172749 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.096169 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.09093 } ], "others_margin": -0.177973 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.06024043262004852, "model_output": 0.0602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.156 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0204, "total": 0.0602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.650758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.385541 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.231561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094541 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034604 } ], "others_margin": -0.291632 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2710983455181122, "model_output": 0.2711, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2182 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0958, "total": 0.2711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.311701 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.21815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038174 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036499 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025423 } ], "others_margin": -0.09585 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752045631408691, "model_output": 6.752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 6.752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090165 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015501 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012123 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011012 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009809 } ], "others_margin": -0.018423 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.352, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "total_shots": 0.2705, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 23.9, "total_pass": 15.7009, "accurate_pass": 14.3977, "duels_won": 2.2138, "total_long_balls": 1.2895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8748, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5025, "crosses_total": 0.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.3397, "possession_lost": 1.5522, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0024, "aerial_won": 0.8636, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.4602, "tackles_won": 0.2624, "tackles": 0.8426, "clearances": 0.9737, "total_contest": 0.1476, "won_contest": 0.0797, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1095, "fouls_drawn": 0.4278, "blocks": 0.1528, "big_chances_created": 0.1984, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0215, "ball_carries": 7.1774, "total_progression": 28.0309, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2104 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.352, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0304, "goal_rate": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.0594, "total_shots": 0.2676, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 23.9, "total_pass": 15.7009, "accurate_pass": 14.3977, "duels_won": 2.2138, "total_long_balls": 1.2895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8748, 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0.1146 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 29.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.43)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4373, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.69, "projection_minutes": 23.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2423, "appearance_probability": 0.435 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4373, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4373, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.435, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4373, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, 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false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065357 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014725 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014572 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013535 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009719 } ], "others_margin": -0.061624 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goals": 0.0809, "goal_rate": 0.0809, "shots_on_target": 0.2786, "total_shots": 0.6536, "expected_assists": 0.044, "key_pass": 0.4475, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 31.35, "total_pass": 6.6483, "accurate_pass": 4.7813, "duels_won": 1.8355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5742, "crosses_total": 1.0843, "crosses_accurate": 0.4244, "touches": 16.9583, "possession_lost": 5.6481, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 2.2696, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 1.0894, "won_contest": 0.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.9754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6538, "fouls_drawn": 0.8713, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2294, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4992, "clearances": 0.1409, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7055, "xgot": 0.1139, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.9573, "total_progression": 21.9467, "progressive_carries": 0.5517, "shots_off_target": 0.3749 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.4 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.67, "projection_minutes": 31.35, "minutes_scale": 0.8188, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, "opponent_lambda": 1.111, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0423 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.036, "after": 0.026 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 900, "fifa_rank": 585.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3041, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3041, "runner_up": "Alemão", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2567 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, 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"team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0208, "squad_weight_total": 0.8581, "weight_share": 0.0242, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.176, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.176, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1546, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Álvaro García" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sergio Camello": { "player_id": 910024, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goal_rate": 0.2042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0783, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9234, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, 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}, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.092 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0884 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0546, "total": 6.9234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091972 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.08837 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.062375 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.026473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015216 } ], "others_margin": 0.05465 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1455, "goals": 0.166, "goal_rate": 0.166, "shots_on_target": 0.4419, "total_shots": 1.2304, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "key_pass": 0.7479, "rating": 6.9234, "minutes": 21.76, "total_pass": 7.3606, "accurate_pass": 5.847, "duels_won": 1.2852, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6118, "crosses_total": 0.073, "crosses_accurate": 0.073, "touches": 12.4945, "possession_lost": 3.7393, "dispossessed": 0.703, "duels_lost": 2.0351, "aerial_lost": 0.3293, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.3141, "ball_recovery": 1.3775, "challenges_lost": 0.1183, "fouls": 0.1998, "fouls_drawn": 0.678, "assists": 0.1399, "assist_rate": 0.1399, "interceptions": 0.1723, "tackles_won": 0.1926, "tackles": 0.2656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2409, "big_chances_missed": 0.0475, "xgot": 0.1016, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3459, "total_progression": 10.9273, "progressive_carries": 0.3459, "shots_off_target": 0.7884 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1455, "goals": 0.1683, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "shots_on_target": 0.4421, "total_shots": 1.2248, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "key_pass": 0.7479, "rating": 6.9234, "minutes": 21.76, "total_pass": 7.3606, "accurate_pass": 5.847, "duels_won": 1.2852, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6118, "crosses_total": 0.075, "crosses_accurate": 0.073, "touches": 12.4945, "possession_lost": 3.7393, "dispossessed": 0.703, "duels_lost": 2.0351, "aerial_lost": 0.3293, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.3141, "ball_recovery": 1.3775, "challenges_lost": 0.1183, "fouls": 0.2002, "fouls_drawn": 0.6782, "assists": 0.1381, "assist_rate": 0.1381, "interceptions": 0.1701, "tackles_won": 0.1916, "tackles": 0.2656, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2409, "big_chances_missed": 0.0475, "xgot": 0.1016, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3459, "total_progression": 10.9273, "progressive_carries": 0.3459, "shots_off_target": 0.7884 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2418, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2304, "after": 1.2248 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 26.4 expected minutes 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1.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.382, "crosses_total": 0.091, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 15.1588, "possession_lost": 4.5367, "dispossessed": 0.703, "duels_lost": 2.4691, "aerial_lost": 0.3293, "total_contest": 1.2117, "won_contest": 0.3811, "ball_recovery": 1.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.1183, "fouls": 0.2429, "fouls_drawn": 0.8228, "assist_rate": 0.1675, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2064, "tackles_won": 0.2325, "tackles": 0.3222, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "big_chances_missed": 0.0576, "xgot": 0.1233, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.4858, "total_progression": 13.2574, "progressive_carries": 0.4197, "shots_off_target": 0.9565, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.47, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.47, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 180, "market_value": 2900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0255, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, 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20, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2708, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1621, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0628, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0935, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0905, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.352087 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.065328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065252 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.057846 } ], "others_margin": -0.038277 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2673579752445221, "model_output": 0.2674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1585 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 0.2674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.666113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.288606 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101273 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.083298 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041116 } ], "others_margin": 0.035658 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3228962421417236, "model_output": 1.3229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6445 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5195 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0426 } ], "others": 0.05, "total": 1.3229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.644469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519456 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.059448 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049016 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042588 } ], "others_margin": 0.049935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740901947021484, "model_output": 6.7409, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 6.7409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091883 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038102 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036264 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005606 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.004615 } ], "others_margin": -0.024114 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7323, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0733, "assist_rate": 0.0733, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.2668, "total_shots": 1.32, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1815, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, 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5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.0201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7093, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, 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0.054447 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637635707855225, "model_output": 6.6376, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0654 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0616, "total": 6.6376, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065357 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014725 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014572 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013535 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009719 } ], "others_margin": -0.061624 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goals": 0.0809, "goal_rate": 0.0809, "shots_on_target": 0.2786, "total_shots": 0.6536, "expected_assists": 0.044, "key_pass": 0.4475, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 31.35, "total_pass": 6.6483, "accurate_pass": 4.7813, "duels_won": 1.8355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5742, "crosses_total": 1.0843, "crosses_accurate": 0.4244, "touches": 16.9583, "possession_lost": 5.6481, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 2.2696, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 1.0894, "won_contest": 0.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.9754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6538, "fouls_drawn": 0.8713, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2294, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4992, "clearances": 0.1409, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7055, "xgot": 0.1139, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.9573, "total_progression": 21.9467, "progressive_carries": 0.5517, "shots_off_target": 0.3749 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.4 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.67, "projection_minutes": 31.35, "minutes_scale": 0.8188, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0933, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0238, xG scale 1.2561, xA scale 1.2561, team xA 0.88 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.286, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0238, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7033, "team_expected_assists": 0.8834, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6869, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2561, "xa_scale": 1.2561, "opponent_lambda": 1.111, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0423 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.036, "after": 0.026 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 900, "fifa_rank": 585.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "scorer_weight": 0.0453, "squad_weight_total": 1.3418, "weight_share": 0.0338, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3041, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3041, "runner_up": "Alemão", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2567 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3664, "rating": 6.6376, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 5.4439, "accurate_pass": 3.9151, "duels_won": 1.503, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9267, "crosses_total": 0.8879, "crosses_accurate": 0.3475, "touches": 13.8861, "possession_lost": 4.6249, "dispossessed": 0.6013, "duels_lost": 1.8584, "aerial_lost": 0.195, "total_contest": 0.892, "won_contest": 0.2209, "ball_recovery": 0.7987, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.7135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4088, "clearances": 0.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5777, "xgot": 0.0675, "offsides": 0.1657, "ball_carries": 4.0592, "total_progression": 17.9708, "progressive_carries": 0.4518, "shots_off_target": 0.307, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.472, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0254, "finishing_factor": 1.071, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0254, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0208, "squad_weight_total": 0.8581, "weight_share": 0.0242, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.176, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.176, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1546, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Álvaro García" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.29, "expected_assists": 0.88, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 395, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Elche": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Fernando Niño": { "player_id": 1016019, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 190, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4105, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.8034, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0063, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, 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{ "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039972 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.037347 } ], "others_margin": -0.14617 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872632026672363, "model_output": 6.8726, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0543, "total": 6.8726, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9936, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3446, "goals": 0.4072, "goal_rate": 0.4072, "shots_on_target": 1.0613, "total_shots": 2.086, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3682, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 8.6078, "aerial_lost": 3.7047, "total_contest": 2.6001, "won_contest": 0.9671, "ball_recovery": 1.686, "challenges_lost": 0.577, "fouls": 0.8201, "fouls_drawn": 1.705, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.232, "tackles_won": 1.0265, "tackles": 1.185, "clearances": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1972, "xgot": 0.6747, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 7.1775, "total_progression": 31.4958, "progressive_carries": 1.686, "shots_off_target": 1.0246 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9936, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0387)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3446, "goals": 0.4043, "goal_rate": 0.4043, "shots_on_target": 1.0585, "total_shots": 2.0564, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3468, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0652, "total_shots": 2.0963, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3682, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 8.6078, "aerial_lost": 3.7047, "total_contest": 2.6001, "won_contest": 0.9671, "ball_recovery": 1.686, "challenges_lost": 0.577, "fouls": 0.8012, "fouls_drawn": 1.7033, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2359, "tackles_won": 1.0253, "tackles": 1.185, "clearances": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.679, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 7.1775, "total_progression": 31.4958, "progressive_carries": 1.686, "shots_off_target": 1.0311, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0063, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4105, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0652, "total_shots": 2.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3682, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 8.6078, "aerial_lost": 3.7047, "total_contest": 2.6001, "won_contest": 0.9671, "ball_recovery": 1.686, "challenges_lost": 0.577, "fouls": 0.8012, "fouls_drawn": 1.7033, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2359, "tackles_won": 1.0253, "tackles": 1.185, "clearances": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.8034, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 7.1775, "total_progression": 31.4958, "progressive_carries": 1.686, "shots_off_target": 1.0311, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0063, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1512, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3468, "after": 0.4105 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4105, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0652, "total_shots": 2.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3682, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 8.6078, "aerial_lost": 3.7047, "total_contest": 2.6001, "won_contest": 0.9671, "ball_recovery": 1.686, "challenges_lost": 0.577, "fouls": 0.8012, "fouls_drawn": 1.7033, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2359, "tackles_won": 1.0253, "tackles": 1.185, "clearances": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 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577.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4105, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0652, "total_shots": 2.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3682, "possession_lost": 11.5783, "dispossessed": 1.8729, "duels_lost": 8.6078, "aerial_lost": 3.7047, "total_contest": 2.6001, "won_contest": 0.9671, "ball_recovery": 1.686, "challenges_lost": 0.577, "fouls": 0.8012, "fouls_drawn": 1.7033, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2359, "tackles_won": 1.0253, "tackles": 1.185, "clearances": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.8034, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 7.1775, "total_progression": 31.4958, "progressive_carries": 1.686, "shots_off_target": 1.0311, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0063, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3367, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1512, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3367, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "scorer_weight": 0.4726, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.3628, "finishing_factor": 1.1512, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4105, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0652, "total_shots": 2.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.6265, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2323, "accurate_pass": 12.076, "duels_won": 6.5521, "total_long_balls": 0.0974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0974, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6283, 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0.0914 } ], "others": 0.2498, "total": 1.5224, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.251122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097678 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.080729 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.074536 } ], "others_margin": 0.179142 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.848653793334961, "model_output": 6.8487, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.1407, "goal_rate": 0.1407, "shots_on_target": 0.3805, "total_shots": 1.0171, "expected_assists": 0.1524, "key_pass": 1.5211, "rating": 6.8487, "minutes": 84.78, "total_pass": 30.3374, "accurate_pass": 25.2022, "duels_won": 4.6235, "total_long_balls": 1.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 0.566, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3871, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3841, "crosses_total": 2.591, "crosses_accurate": 0.9555, "touches": 49.3505, "possession_lost": 11.5554, "dispossessed": 0.9711, "duels_lost": 3.9353, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.8554, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 2.9169, "challenges_lost": 0.4305, "fouls": 1.2091, "fouls_drawn": 2.0254, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "interceptions": 0.8641, 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16.3841, "crosses_total": 2.591, "crosses_accurate": 0.9555, "touches": 49.3505, "possession_lost": 11.5554, "dispossessed": 0.9711, "duels_lost": 3.9353, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.8554, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 2.9169, "challenges_lost": 0.4305, "fouls": 1.2091, "fouls_drawn": 2.0254, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "interceptions": 0.8641, "tackles_won": 0.9974, "tackles": 1.294, "clearances": 0.9898, "blocks": 0.0349, "big_chances_created": 0.1844, "big_chances_missed": 0.0669, "xgot": 0.0307, "offsides": 0.1268, "ball_carries": 16.2955, "total_progression": 81.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.7779, "shots_off_target": 0.6366 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.094, "goals": 0.1301, "goal_rate": 0.1301, "shots_on_target": 0.3518, "total_shots": 0.9404, "expected_assists": 0.1524, "key_pass": 1.5211, "rating": 6.8487, "minutes": 84.78, "total_pass": 30.3374, "accurate_pass": 25.2022, "duels_won": 4.6235, "total_long_balls": 1.5523, "accurate_long_balls": 0.566, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3871, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3841, "crosses_total": 2.591, "crosses_accurate": 0.9555, "touches": 49.3505, "possession_lost": 11.5554, "dispossessed": 0.9711, "duels_lost": 3.9353, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.8554, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 2.9169, "challenges_lost": 0.4305, "fouls": 1.2091, "fouls_drawn": 2.0254, "assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0411, "interceptions": 0.8641, "tackles_won": 0.9974, "tackles": 1.294, "clearances": 0.9898, "blocks": 0.0349, "big_chances_created": 0.1844, "big_chances_missed": 0.0619, "xgot": 0.0284, "offsides": 0.1268, "ball_carries": 16.2955, "total_progression": 81.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.7779, "shots_off_target": 0.5886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9246, 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"player": "Florian Lejeune", "market_value": 1700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.094 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0171, "after": 0.9404 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6366, "after": 0.5886 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3805, "after": 0.3518 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1407, "after": 0.1301 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.094 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0669, "after": 0.0619 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.094, "goal_rate": 0.1301, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3518, "total_shots": 0.9404, "expected_assists": 0.1524, "key_pass": 1.5211, "rating": 6.8487, "minutes": 84.78, "total_pass": 30.3374, 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"pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goal_rate": 0.1301, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3518, "total_shots": 0.9404, "expected_assists": 0.1697, "key_pass": 1.5211, "rating": 6.8487, "minutes": 84.78, "total_pass": 30.3374, "accurate_pass": 25.2022, "duels_won": 4.6235, "total_long_balls": 1.5523, 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 6.9005, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.072485 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.061735 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.021876 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016535 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013269 } ], "others_margin": -0.027191 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1194, "goals": 0.1658, "goal_rate": 0.1658, "shots_on_target": 0.5487, "total_shots": 1.4, "expected_assists": 0.105, "key_pass": 1.2283, "rating": 6.9005, "minutes": 76.9, "total_pass": 26.3645, "accurate_pass": 22.2293, "duels_won": 4.8477, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4166, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5175, "crosses_total": 1.5309, "crosses_accurate": 0.7472, "touches": 42.2116, "possession_lost": 8.5483, "dispossessed": 1.141, "duels_lost": 4.6122, "aerial_lost": 1.0932, "total_contest": 1.7158, "won_contest": 1.1376, "ball_recovery": 3.8288, "challenges_lost": 0.9958, "fouls": 0.8041, "fouls_drawn": 2.3268, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 1.0264, "tackles": 1.258, "clearances": 0.2398, "blocks": 0.1473, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.4364, "total_progression": 58.2636, "progressive_carries": 1.2339, "shots_off_target": 0.8513 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9958, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1194, "goals": 0.1645, "goal_rate": 0.1645, "shots_on_target": 0.5599, "total_shots": 1.4277, "expected_assists": 0.105, "key_pass": 1.2283, "rating": 6.9005, "minutes": 76.9, "total_pass": 26.3645, "accurate_pass": 22.2293, "duels_won": 4.8477, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4166, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5175, "crosses_total": 1.5647, 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Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9249, "skill_edge": -0.0091, "height_edge": -0.042, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4576, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "market_value": 4700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4777 }, { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "market_value": 1700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1104 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4277, "after": 1.3205 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8513, "after": 0.7874 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5599, "after": 0.5179 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1645, "after": 0.1521 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1194, "after": 0.1104 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5179, "total_shots": 1.3205, "expected_assists": 0.105, "key_pass": 1.2283, "rating": 6.9005, "minutes": 76.9, "total_pass": 26.3645, "accurate_pass": 22.2293, "duels_won": 4.8477, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4166, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5175, "crosses_total": 1.5647, "crosses_accurate": 0.7472, "touches": 42.2116, 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"attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5179, "total_shots": 1.3205, "expected_assists": 0.1169, "key_pass": 1.2283, "rating": 6.9005, "minutes": 76.9, "total_pass": 26.3645, "accurate_pass": 22.2293, "duels_won": 4.8477, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4166, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5175, "crosses_total": 1.5647, "crosses_accurate": 0.7472, "touches": 42.2116, "possession_lost": 8.5483, "dispossessed": 1.141, "duels_lost": 4.6122, "aerial_lost": 1.0932, 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"importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142448 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.121996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.085752 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035181 } ], "others_margin": -0.104952 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08191602677106857, "model_output": 0.0819, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.0819, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120362 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.108876 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.073562 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.0574 } ], "others_margin": -0.110676 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2625393569469452, "model_output": 0.2625, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.2625, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151468 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062305 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059568 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.043339 } ], "others_margin": -0.024168 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7123928070068359, "model_output": 0.7124, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": -0.088, "total": 0.7124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275265 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131312 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054245 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.020762 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019084 } ], "others_margin": -0.087982 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.87398099899292, "model_output": 6.874, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0773 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0321, "total": 6.874, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077254 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032045 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02779 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019831 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.011697 } ], "others_margin": -0.032053 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.956, "expected_assists": 0.0794, "assists": 0.0876, "assist_rate": 0.0876, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0816, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "shots_on_target": 0.2615, "total_shots": 0.7097, "rating": 6.874, "minutes": 80.91, "total_pass": 42.1619, "accurate_pass": 37.6073, "duels_won": 5.2297, "total_long_balls": 1.5323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7295, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4435, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1638, "crosses_total": 1.2925, "crosses_accurate": 0.4437, "touches": 55.3012, "possession_lost": 8.5077, "dispossessed": 1.4254, "duels_lost": 4.8167, "aerial_won": 0.7743, "aerial_lost": 0.7945, "interceptions": 0.4617, "tackles_won": 0.7134, "tackles": 1.7417, "clearances": 0.3639, "total_contest": 1.3222, "won_contest": 0.6913, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 1.6609, "fouls_drawn": 2.1057, "blocks": 0.3818, "big_chances_created": 0.1023, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0779, "ball_carries": 16.1467, "total_progression": 27.696, "progressive_carries": 0.8648, "shots_off_target": 0.4481 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9961, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0250)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.956, "expected_assists": 0.0794, "assists": 0.0929, "assist_rate": 0.0929, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.2774, "total_shots": 0.7218, "rating": 6.874, "minutes": 80.91, "total_pass": 42.1619, "accurate_pass": 37.6073, "duels_won": 5.2297, "total_long_balls": 1.5323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7295, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4435, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1638, "crosses_total": 1.3276, "crosses_accurate": 0.4437, "touches": 55.3012, "possession_lost": 8.5077, "dispossessed": 1.4254, "duels_lost": 4.8167, "aerial_won": 0.7743, "aerial_lost": 0.7945, "interceptions": 0.4651, "tackles_won": 0.7105, "tackles": 1.7417, "clearances": 0.3639, "total_contest": 1.3222, "won_contest": 0.6913, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 1.6793, "fouls_drawn": 2.1579, "blocks": 0.3818, "big_chances_created": 0.1023, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0779, "ball_carries": 16.1467, "total_progression": 27.696, "progressive_carries": 0.8648, "shots_off_target": 0.4481 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.025, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.899, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.1057, "after": 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0379, "total": 6.7123, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058457 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.047337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028251 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017746 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010749 } ], "others_margin": -0.037728 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "shots_on_target": 0.1228, "total_shots": 0.5126, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 0.847, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0933, "tackles_won": 1.1736, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6484, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0051)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.51, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 0.847, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0051, "history_matches": 12, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9649, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6484, "after": 0.6574 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1736, "after": 1.1799 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0933, "after": 1.0877 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 0.847, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "market_value": 1600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0321 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.847, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1169, "creation_factor": 1.1556 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.038 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1169, "creation_factor": 1.1556, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1378, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.11, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.3197, "possession_lost": 4.9369, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.8243, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4042, "interceptions": 1.0877, "tackles_won": 1.1799, "tackles": 1.4268, "clearances": 2.6852, "total_contest": 0.4788, "won_contest": 0.4788, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 0.6574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2792, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 9.4094, "total_progression": 21.4351, "progressive_carries": 0.2394, "shots_off_target": 0.3897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0373, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1169, "creation_factor": 1.1556, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "scorer_weight": 0.0424, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0326, "finishing_factor": 1.1169, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4518, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1222, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7123, "minutes": 86.84, "total_pass": 39.8941, "accurate_pass": 35.9733, "duels_won": 2.7526, "total_long_balls": 2.8773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7551, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.014, "tackles": 1.4199, "tackles_won": 0.8459, "clearances": 2.397, "aerial_won": 0.724, "total_shots": 0.5153, "rating": 6.7998, "minutes": 88.19, "total_pass": 37.6684, "accurate_pass": 32.064, "duels_won": 3.3694, "total_long_balls": 3.2892, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7293, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9217, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.1423, "crosses_total": 1.1537, "crosses_accurate": 0.1645, "touches": 55.1535, "possession_lost": 10.7946, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2968, "aerial_lost": 0.5952, "total_contest": 1.2955, "won_contest": 0.8, "ball_recovery": 1.6738, "challenges_lost": 0.9891, "fouls": 0.9891, "fouls_drawn": 1.3209, "blocks": 0.8939, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3871, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.1551, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.6557, "total_progression": 62.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.275, "key_pass": 0.7793, "shots_off_target": 0.5153, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.014, "tackles": 1.4199, "tackles_won": 0.8459, "clearances": 2.397, "aerial_won": 0.724, "total_shots": 0.5153, "rating": 6.7998, "minutes": 88.19, "total_pass": 37.6684, "accurate_pass": 32.064, "duels_won": 3.3694, "total_long_balls": 3.2892, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7293, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9217, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.1423, "crosses_total": 1.1537, "crosses_accurate": 0.1645, "touches": 55.1535, "possession_lost": 10.7946, "dispossessed": 0.2277, "duels_lost": 3.2968, "aerial_lost": 0.5952, "total_contest": 1.2955, "won_contest": 0.8, "ball_recovery": 1.6738, "challenges_lost": 0.9891, "fouls": 0.9891, "fouls_drawn": 1.3209, "blocks": 0.8939, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3871, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "expected_assists": 0.1728, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3871, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.6557, "total_progression": 62.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.275, "key_pass": 0.7793, "shots_off_target": 0.5153, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8418, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1551, "after": 0.1728 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.011, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1587, "finishing_factor": 0.8418, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1587, "assist_rate": 0.3871, "provider_weight": 0.216, "squad_weight_total": 0.8565, "weight_share": 0.2522, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.216, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.216, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1358, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] }, "Federico Redondo": { "player_id": 1117026, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 188, "market_value": 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019173 } ], "others_margin": -0.046013 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9954, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.039, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0383, "shots_on_target": 0.1097, "total_shots": 0.4627, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 0.1472, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6484, "tackles_won": 1.3279, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9905, "fouls_drawn": 0.6, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9954, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0148)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "total_shots": 0.4631, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 0.1472, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0148, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7547, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9905, "after": 0.9833 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "total_shots": 0.4631, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 0.1472, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1113, "total_shots": 0.4767, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.3634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "market_value": 1600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0283 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1472, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4631, "after": 0.4767 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.353, "after": 0.3634 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1113, "total_shots": 0.4767, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.3634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1113, "total_shots": 0.4767, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.3634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1341, "creation_factor": 1.0486 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0283, "after": 0.0335 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1113, "total_shots": 0.4767, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.3634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1341, "creation_factor": 1.0486, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5116, "fifa_rank": 5931.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0384, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1113, "total_shots": 0.4767, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 67.92, "total_pass": 40.5603, "accurate_pass": 37.8013, "duels_won": 3.6502, "total_long_balls": 2.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4679, "total_own_half_passes": 27.8108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.5739, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5327, "possession_lost": 4.1432, "dispossessed": 0.2038, "duels_lost": 2.7583, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "interceptions": 1.6463, "tackles_won": 1.3231, "tackles": 2.6992, "clearances": 1.8267, "total_contest": 0.4574, "won_contest": 0.2038, "challenges_lost": 0.9816, "fouls": 0.9833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5986, "blocks": 0.2391, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.6714, "total_progression": 67.9963, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "shots_off_target": 0.3634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1341, "creation_factor": 1.0486, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125384 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.069381 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.030575 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.030419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.02856 } ], "others_margin": -0.053255 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.401925086975098, "model_output": 4.4019, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4503 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3592 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3444 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", 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"contribution": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 0.5762, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063661 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.047247 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017883 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.0162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011554 } ], "others_margin": -0.0229 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.933485984802246, "model_output": 6.9335, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0234, "total": 6.9335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.053614 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034883 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01808 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011619 } ], "others_margin": 0.023485 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0626, "tackles": 1.6385, "tackles_won": 0.944, "clearances": 4.3918, "aerial_won": 1.4924, "total_shots": 0.5749, "rating": 6.9335, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 66.0777, "accurate_pass": 59.2258, "duels_won": 3.8043, "total_long_balls": 8.2003, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6409, "total_own_half_passes": 41.312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0284, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1973, "crosses_total": 1.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.2064, "touches": 79.7358, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.1281, "duels_lost": 2.8618, "aerial_lost": 1.1077, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.1354, "ball_recovery": 3.3271, "challenges_lost": 0.7762, "fouls": 0.718, "fouls_drawn": 0.1959, "blocks": 0.7449, "goals": 0.0419, 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1.0981 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.944, "after": 0.9495 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0664, "tackles": 1.6385, "tackles_won": 0.9495, "clearances": 4.3918, "aerial_won": 1.4924, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.9335, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 66.0777, "accurate_pass": 59.2258, "duels_won": 3.8043, "total_long_balls": 8.2003, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6409, "total_own_half_passes": 41.312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0284, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1973, "crosses_total": 1.0981, "crosses_accurate": 0.2064, "touches": 79.7358, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.1281, "duels_lost": 2.8618, "aerial_lost": 1.1077, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.1354, "ball_recovery": 3.3271, "challenges_lost": 0.7762, "fouls": 0.7172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1931, "blocks": 0.7449, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, 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0.2064, "touches": 79.7358, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.1281, "duels_lost": 2.8618, "aerial_lost": 1.1077, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.1354, "ball_recovery": 3.3271, "challenges_lost": 0.7762, "fouls": 0.7172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1931, "blocks": 0.7449, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "assists": 0.0658, "assist_rate": 0.0658, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1213, "big_chances_created": 0.0414, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 24.722, "total_progression": 82.8975, "progressive_carries": 0.6368, "key_pass": 0.3223, "shots_off_target": 0.4518, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0664, "tackles": 1.6385, "tackles_won": 0.9495, "clearances": 4.3918, "aerial_won": 1.4924, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.9335, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 66.0777, "accurate_pass": 59.2258, "duels_won": 3.8043, "total_long_balls": 8.2003, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6409, "total_own_half_passes": 41.312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0284, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1973, "crosses_total": 1.0981, "crosses_accurate": 0.2064, "touches": 79.7358, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.1281, "duels_lost": 2.8618, "aerial_lost": 1.1077, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.1354, "ball_recovery": 3.3271, "challenges_lost": 0.7762, "fouls": 0.7172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1931, "blocks": 0.7449, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0658, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1213, "big_chances_created": 0.0414, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 24.722, "total_progression": 82.8975, "progressive_carries": 0.6368, "key_pass": 0.3223, "shots_off_target": 0.4518, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0664, "tackles": 1.6385, "tackles_won": 0.9495, "clearances": 4.3918, "aerial_won": 1.4924, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.9335, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 66.0777, "accurate_pass": 59.2258, "duels_won": 3.8043, "total_long_balls": 8.2003, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6409, "total_own_half_passes": 41.312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0284, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1973, "crosses_total": 1.0981, "crosses_accurate": 0.2064, "touches": 79.7358, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.1281, "duels_lost": 2.8618, "aerial_lost": 1.1077, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.1354, "ball_recovery": 3.3271, "challenges_lost": 0.7762, "fouls": 0.7172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1931, "blocks": 0.7449, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0658, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1213, "big_chances_created": 0.0414, "xgot": 0.0231, "ball_carries": 24.722, "total_progression": 82.8975, "progressive_carries": 0.6368, "key_pass": 0.3223, "shots_off_target": 0.4518, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0328, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0384, "after": 0.0454 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0419, "total": 6.6329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044399 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020618 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017927 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015581 } ], "others_margin": -0.041861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6732, "tackles": 1.5332, "tackles_won": 0.9869, "clearances": 2.5476, "aerial_won": 0.7196, "total_shots": 0.3076, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 74.21, "total_pass": 23.3831, "accurate_pass": 18.8671, "duels_won": 3.1649, "total_long_balls": 1.7014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4839, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9265, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9407, "crosses_total": 0.9656, "crosses_accurate": 0.1608, "touches": 39.4744, "possession_lost": 7.9104, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 2.9513, "aerial_lost": 0.4291, "total_contest": 1.308, "won_contest": 0.3979, "ball_recovery": 1.2967, "challenges_lost": 0.2543, "fouls": 1.1181, "fouls_drawn": 0.6603, "blocks": 0.2828, "goals": 0.0717, 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1.7014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4839, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9265, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9407, "crosses_total": 0.9556, "crosses_accurate": 0.1608, "touches": 39.4744, "possession_lost": 7.9104, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 2.9513, "aerial_lost": 0.4291, "total_contest": 1.308, "won_contest": 0.3979, "ball_recovery": 1.2967, "challenges_lost": 0.2543, "fouls": 1.1257, "fouls_drawn": 0.658, "blocks": 0.2828, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "shots_on_target": 0.0769, "big_chances_created": 0.0195, "xgot": 0.0108, "ball_carries": 8.7641, "total_progression": 42.5524, "progressive_carries": 1.1771, "key_pass": 0.2206, "shots_off_target": 0.2359, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6634, "tackles": 1.5332, "tackles_won": 1.005, "clearances": 2.5476, "aerial_won": 0.7196, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 74.21, "total_pass": 23.3831, "accurate_pass": 18.8671, "duels_won": 3.1649, "total_long_balls": 1.7014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4839, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9265, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6634, "tackles": 1.5332, "tackles_won": 1.005, "clearances": 2.5476, "aerial_won": 0.7196, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 74.21, "total_pass": 23.3831, "accurate_pass": 18.8671, "duels_won": 3.1649, "total_long_balls": 1.7014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4839, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9265, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9407, "crosses_total": 0.9556, 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"name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0838 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0336, "total": -0.1764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.083821 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.0198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.017221 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.015804 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.012965 } ], "others_margin": -0.033688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.081747055053711, "model_output": 7.0817, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0595 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0274 } ], "others": 0.0245, "total": 7.0817, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.072026 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.059549 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.042788 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.038457 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027415 } ], "others_margin": 0.02459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8862, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0464, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 105000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0181)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0181, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8862, "after": 2.8762 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2861, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García, Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García, Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2861 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2861, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García, Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2861, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García, Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0456, "total_own_half_passes": 31.212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7537, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2861, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García, Alemão", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3074, "fifa_rank": 1952.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, 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"squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8762, "goals_prevented": -0.1759, "rating": 7.0817, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3029, "accurate_pass": 35.2302, "total_long_balls": 26.1946, "accurate_long_balls": 10.9093, "touches": 61.8439, "clearances": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 9.6773, "high_claims": 1.182, "punches": 1.3099, "aerial_won": 0.2657, "sweeper_actions": 0.8883, "sweeper_accurate": 0.854, "saves_inside_box": 2.042, "possession_lost": 16.5204, "duels_won": 0.3026, "duels_lost": 0.1894, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0123, "total": 7.0479, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.082706 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.040735 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031041 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.015641 } ], "others_margin": -0.012364 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1146, "assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "expected_goals": 0.0743, "goals": 0.0979, "goal_rate": 0.0979, "shots_on_target": 0.3499, "total_shots": 1.0005, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.0237, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0314, "xgot": 0.1251, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6506 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1146, "assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "expected_goals": 0.0743, "goals": 0.0979, "goal_rate": 0.0979, "shots_on_target": 0.3499, "total_shots": 1.0005, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.0237, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0314, "xgot": 0.1251, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6506 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1146, "assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0938, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0.9582, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0301, "xgot": 0.1198, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6231, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrià Pedrosa", "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "skill_edge": -0.0048, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4481, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, 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"total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0301, "xgot": 0.1198, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6231, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrià Pedrosa", "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0.9582, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0301, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6231, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrià Pedrosa", "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1865, "creation_factor": 0.8232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0712, "after": 0.0842 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1146, "after": 0.1276 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0.9582, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, "tackles_won": 0.828, "tackles": 2.0284, "clearances": 0.0917, "total_contest": 1.4739, "won_contest": 1.0838, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 0.7048, "fouls_drawn": 0.911, "blocks": 0.0193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0301, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 17.7619, "total_progression": 47.0005, "progressive_carries": 1.0783, "shots_off_target": 0.6231, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrià Pedrosa", "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1865, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3132, "fifa_rank": 1548.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0.9582, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8121, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9893, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1844, "crosses_total": 1.789, "crosses_accurate": 0.4672, "touches": 45.3727, "possession_lost": 7.8708, "dispossessed": 1.0567, "duels_lost": 2.8549, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1293, "interceptions": 0.0969, 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "scorer_weight": 0.0999, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0767, "finishing_factor": 1.1865, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2407, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0.9582, "rating": 7.0479, "minutes": 72.34, "total_pass": 33.9484, "accurate_pass": 30.1736, "duels_won": 4.0469, "total_long_balls": 2.6986, "accurate_long_balls": 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}, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-03", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-21", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 9.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-13", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-07", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4389, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.2192, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3365, "fifa_rank": 2437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Kevin Lomónaco": { "player_id": 1003014, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 192, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.9984, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.31, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.82, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3656, "combined_rank_score": 1619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3076.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Lomónaco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bashir Humphreys", "ranking": 3651 }, { "player_name": "Altimira", "ranking": 3652 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Almirón", "ranking": 3653 }, { "player_name": "Marko Livaja", "ranking": 3654 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Chust", "ranking": 3655 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "ranking": 3657 }, { "player_name": "Quilindschy Hartman", "ranking": 3658 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Dorley", "ranking": 3659 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Matviienko", "ranking": 3660 }, { "player_name": "Hamed Junior Traorè", "ranking": 3661 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.824307952762858, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3101958160346754, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5011, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€8,199,999) scaled to 13.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.50)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles": 2.4, "tackles_won": 1.5, "clearances": 2.7, 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0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.023, "shots_off_target": 0.0307, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0.0922, "ball_carries": 3.0721, "total_progression": 9.2162, "progressive_carries": 0.768, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.31, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.82 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.82, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1536, "appearance_probability": 0.31 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3686, "tackles_won": 0.2304, "clearances": 0.4147, "aerial_won": 0.3533, "duels_won": 0.8448, "total_pass": 6.7586, "accurate_pass": 5.3761, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.82, "total_long_balls": 0.9216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5329, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0752, "crosses_total": 0.1382, 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1021165, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 184, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6171, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.0841, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0316, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 16, 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-0.006049 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6170501708984375, "model_output": 6.6171, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0684, "total": 6.617, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044798 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013773 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013224 } ], "others_margin": -0.068392 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9967, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3282, "tackles": 0.5661, "tackles_won": 0.367, "clearances": 0.7207, "aerial_won": 0.2878, "total_shots": 0.2687, "rating": 6.6171, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 6.5427, "accurate_pass": 4.9421, "duels_won": 1.4018, "total_long_balls": 1.0796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.494, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8912, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0509, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1969, "touches": 13.7278, "possession_lost": 3.3736, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 1.7361, "aerial_lost": 0.3843, "total_contest": 0.8402, "won_contest": 0.5434, "ball_recovery": 1.6273, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.4257, "fouls_drawn": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1153, "goals": 0.0, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1683, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.1855, "crosses_accurate": 0.1216, "touches": 8.4805, "possession_lost": 2.0841, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 1.0725, "aerial_lost": 0.3843, "total_contest": 0.519, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 1.0053, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.263, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "blocks": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0316, "assist_rate": 0.0316, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0645, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8659, "total_progression": 16.0632, "progressive_carries": 0.4575, "key_pass": 0.1366, "shots_off_target": 0.166, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "projection_minutes": 21.97, "minutes_scale": 0.6178, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2027, "tackles": 0.3497, "tackles_won": 0.2267, "clearances": 0.4452, "aerial_won": 0.1778, "total_shots": 0.166, "rating": 6.6171, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.0418, "accurate_pass": 3.053, "duels_won": 0.866, "total_long_balls": 0.6669, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3052, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1683, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.1855, "crosses_accurate": 0.1216, "touches": 8.4805, "possession_lost": 2.0841, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 1.0725, "aerial_lost": 0.3843, "total_contest": 0.519, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 1.0053, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.263, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "blocks": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0316, "assist_rate": 0.0316, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0645, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8659, "total_progression": 16.0632, "progressive_carries": 0.4575, "key_pass": 0.1366, "shots_off_target": 0.166, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2027, "tackles": 0.3497, "tackles_won": 0.2267, "clearances": 0.4452, "aerial_won": 0.1778, "total_shots": 0.166, "rating": 6.6171, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.0418, "accurate_pass": 3.053, "duels_won": 0.866, "total_long_balls": 0.6669, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3052, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1683, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.1855, "crosses_accurate": 0.1216, "touches": 8.4805, "possession_lost": 2.0841, 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"projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2027, "tackles": 0.3497, "tackles_won": 0.2267, "clearances": 0.4452, "aerial_won": 0.1778, "total_shots": 0.166, "rating": 6.6171, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.0418, "accurate_pass": 3.053, "duels_won": 0.866, "total_long_balls": 0.6669, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3052, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1683, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.1855, "crosses_accurate": 0.1216, "touches": 8.4805, "possession_lost": 2.0841, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 1.0725, "aerial_lost": 0.3843, "total_contest": 0.519, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 1.0053, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.263, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "blocks": 0.0712, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0316, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0645, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8659, "total_progression": 16.0632, "progressive_carries": 0.4575, "key_pass": 0.1366, "shots_off_target": 0.166, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4776, "fifa_rank": 5032.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Martim Neto": { "player_id": 1100646, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 185, "market_value": 3800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0819, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.2625, "dispossessed": 0.3036, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0412, "ball_carries": 6, 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"2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083132, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083637, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4398, "combined_rank_score": 2419.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 575.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.804, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 4263.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7151, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martim Neto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Guiu", "ranking": 4393 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Coronel", "ranking": 4394 }, { "player_name": "Joe Worrall", "ranking": 4395 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Osman", "ranking": 4396 }, { "player_name": "Karl Edouard Etta Eyong", "ranking": 4397 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Embarba", "ranking": 4399 }, { "player_name": "Justo Giani", "ranking": 4400 }, { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (31 historical appearances) to 24.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5864, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "assists": 0.0837, "assist_rate": 0.0837, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4185, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 25.09, "total_pass": 13.139, "accurate_pass": 11.3672, "duels_won": 1.3038, "total_long_balls": 0.4442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4113, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7925, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7316, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5746, "crosses_total": 0.5318, "crosses_accurate": 0.1484, "touches": 17.8114, "possession_lost": 3.314, "dispossessed": 0.3043, "duels_lost": 1.14, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1482, "interceptions": 0.0456, "tackles_won": 0.2855, "tackles": 0.3766, "clearances": 0.1711, "total_contest": 1.1068, "won_contest": 0.686, "challenges_lost": 0.1267, "fouls": 0.1399, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0944, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0418, "ball_carries": 5.964, "total_progression": 29.7756, "progressive_carries": 1.0412, "shots_off_target": 0.2119 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.3351, "totalShots": 0.4839, "expectedGoals": 0.0336, "expectedAssists": 0.0666, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1504 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5863997936248779, "model_output": 0.5864, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3747 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": 0.069, "total": 0.5864, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.542833 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.063601 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.043435 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.041392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.026007 } ], "others_margin": 0.125366 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.042258523404598236, "model_output": 0.0423, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.0423, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623048 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.093974 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.079557 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048641 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.040137 } ], "others_margin": -0.001428 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08366916328668594, "model_output": 0.0837, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.0837, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253148 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.113502 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.10134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.080696 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.075079 } ], "others_margin": 0.041589 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05186007171869278, "model_output": 0.0519, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0519, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.528207 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.160396 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.121039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096461 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041444 } ], "others_margin": -0.164628 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05401041358709335, "model_output": 0.054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146967 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.103693 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.101422 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.067761 } ], "others_margin": -0.002944 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20659269392490387, "model_output": 0.2066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 0.2066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.489178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.280623 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.13837 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.08058 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02714 } ], "others_margin": 0.067479 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41852208971977234, "model_output": 0.4185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": 0.0419, "total": 0.4185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.242176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055427 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019172 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.018028 } ], "others_margin": 0.041851 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715095043182373, "model_output": 6.7151, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0809 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 6.7151, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08092 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041072 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020451 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014296 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.00697 } ], "others_margin": -0.00584 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.447)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.585, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0835, "assist_rate": 0.0835, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2061, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 25.09, "total_pass": 13.1075, "accurate_pass": 11.3399, "duels_won": 1.3007, "total_long_balls": 0.4431, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4103, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7858, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7082, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.554, "crosses_total": 0.5305, "crosses_accurate": 0.148, "touches": 17.7687, "possession_lost": 3.306, "dispossessed": 0.3036, "duels_lost": 1.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1478, "interceptions": 0.0455, "tackles_won": 0.2848, "tackles": 0.3757, "clearances": 0.1707, "total_contest": 1.1041, "won_contest": 0.6844, "challenges_lost": 0.1264, "fouls": 0.1396, "fouls_drawn": 0.2407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0942, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 5.9497, "total_progression": 29.7041, "progressive_carries": 1.0387, "shots_off_target": 0.2114 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3800000, "quality_factor": 0.4474, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.585, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.2049, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 25.09, "total_pass": 13.1075, "accurate_pass": 11.3399, "duels_won": 1.3007, "total_long_balls": 0.4431, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4103, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7858, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7082, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.554, "crosses_total": 0.5307, "crosses_accurate": 0.148, "touches": 17.7687, "possession_lost": 3.306, "dispossessed": 0.3036, "duels_lost": 1.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1478, "interceptions": 0.0469, "tackles_won": 0.2831, "tackles": 0.3757, "clearances": 0.1707, "total_contest": 1.1041, "won_contest": 0.6844, "challenges_lost": 0.1264, "fouls": 0.1404, "fouls_drawn": 0.2409, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0942, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 5.9497, "total_progression": 29.7041, "progressive_carries": 1.0387, "shots_off_target": 0.2114 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2788, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 24.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assists": 0.0819, "assist_rate": 0.0819, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2022, "total_shots": 0.4112, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 12.9351, "accurate_pass": 11.1908, "duels_won": 1.2836, "total_long_balls": 0.4373, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4049, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3545, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7492, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4415, "crosses_total": 0.5237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1461, "touches": 17.535, "possession_lost": 3.2625, "dispossessed": 0.3036, "duels_lost": 1.1223, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1478, "interceptions": 0.0463, "tackles_won": 0.2794, "tackles": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.1685, "total_contest": 1.0896, "won_contest": 0.6754, "challenges_lost": 0.1264, "fouls": 0.1386, "fouls_drawn": 0.2377, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.093, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0412, "ball_carries": 5.8714, "total_progression": 29.3134, "progressive_carries": 1.025, "shots_off_target": 0.2086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.76, "projection_minutes": 25.09, "minutes_scale": 0.9868, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assists": 0.0819, "assist_rate": 0.0819, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2022, "total_shots": 0.4112, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 12.9351, "accurate_pass": 11.1908, "duels_won": 1.2836, "total_long_balls": 0.4373, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4049, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3545, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7492, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4415, "crosses_total": 0.5237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1461, "touches": 17.535, "possession_lost": 3.2625, "dispossessed": 0.3036, "duels_lost": 1.1223, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1478, "interceptions": 0.0463, "tackles_won": 0.2794, "tackles": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.1685, "total_contest": 1.0896, "won_contest": 0.6754, "challenges_lost": 0.1264, "fouls": 0.1386, "fouls_drawn": 0.2377, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.093, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0412, "ball_carries": 5.8714, "total_progression": 29.3134, "progressive_carries": 1.025, "shots_off_target": 0.2086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0819, "assists": 0, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2032 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0265 } ], "others": -0.1626, "total": 0.2341, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.303016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203208 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039646 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026451 } ], "others_margin": -0.162528 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.709869384765625, "model_output": 6.7099, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 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"contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.4146, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.500817 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.088231 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.07152 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070691 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055799 } ], "others_margin": -0.027787 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637754917144775, "model_output": 6.6378, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0868 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0519, "total": 6.6378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086774 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028489 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010063 } ], "others_margin": -0.05189 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0859, "goal_rate": 0.0859, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 0.8387, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.4159, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3908, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1412, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.5356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0170)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.4159, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3921, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1713, "fouls_drawn": 0.0027, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.5356 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.017, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1719, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1661, "after": 0.1713 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.47, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.534 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0885, "after": 0.0559 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0486, "after": 0.0289 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3732, "fifa_rank": 2691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "scorer_weight": 0.0699, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0536, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 0.8565, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.216, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.216, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1358, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rafa Mir": { "player_id": 825754, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 189, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, 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"margin": -0.045503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043465 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.041612 } ], "others_margin": -0.17488 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6454997062683105, "model_output": 6.6455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0441, "total": 6.6455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061051 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03328 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.017215 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016808 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016103 } ], "others_margin": -0.044148 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.5398, "total_shots": 0.9752, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.3061, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goals": 0.2518, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goals": 0.2518, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1466, "after": 0.0973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0213, "after": 0.0133 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1951, "fifa_rank": 752.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "scorer_weight": 0.1216, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0934, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.8565, "weight_share": 0.0124, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.216, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.216, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1358, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Rafa Mir": { "player_id": 825754, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 189, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, 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"margin": -0.045503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043465 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.041612 } ], "others_margin": -0.17488 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6454997062683105, "model_output": 6.6455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0441, "total": 6.6455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061051 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03328 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.017215 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016808 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016103 } ], "others_margin": -0.044148 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.5398, "total_shots": 0.9752, "expected_assists": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.3061, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goals": 0.2518, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goals": 0.2518, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1466, "after": 0.0973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0213, "after": 0.0133 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1951, "fifa_rank": 752.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "scorer_weight": 0.1216, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0934, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.2518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6773, "total_shots": 1.2236, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5463, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0893, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.8565, "weight_share": 0.0124, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.216, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.216, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1358, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "player_id": 1117025, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 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"rating", "margin": -0.026544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010063 } ], "others_margin": -0.05189 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0859, "goal_rate": 0.0859, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 0.8387, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.4159, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3908, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1412, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.5356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0170)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "key_pass": 0.4159, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3921, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1713, "fouls_drawn": 0.0027, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.5356 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.017, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1719, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1661, "after": 0.1713 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.47, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 0.9390, xG scale 1.1832, xA scale 1.1135, team xA 0.89 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.111, "squad_xg_sum": 0.939, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7982, "team_expected_assists": 0.8888, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1832, "xa_scale": 1.1135, "opponent_lambda": 1.286, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.534 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0885, "after": 0.0559 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0486, "after": 0.0289 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3732, "fifa_rank": 2691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "scorer_weight": 0.0699, "squad_weight_total": 1.3027, "weight_share": 0.0536, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.4726, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4726, "runner_up": "Lucas Cepeda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1633 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4552, "total_shots": 1.2586, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.6239, "rating": 6.6378, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.045, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0531, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 0.8565, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.216, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.216, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1358, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.11, "expected_assists": 0.89, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 421, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Matías Dituro" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0585, "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matías Dituro", "role": "GK", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Matías Dituro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.183, "xg_contribution": 0.2204, "xg_multiplier": 0.9755, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) is evenly matched against Roy Revivo and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.220 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1388, "xg_multiplier": 0.8993, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Roy Revivo and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2243, "xg_multiplier": 0.8846, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Roy Revivo and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0494, "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss (CDM) is evenly matched against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.367, "xg_contribution": 0.1141, "xg_multiplier": 0.922, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.633 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thomas Lemar", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0712, "xg_multiplier": 0.9577, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Lemar (LW) is evenly matched against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Isi Palazón" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.0745, "xg_multiplier": 1.0272, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 }, { "player": "Isi Palazón", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CAM) is evenly matched against Pathé Ismaël Ciss and Isi Palazón in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "xg_contribution": 0.3468, "xg_multiplier": 1.0063, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 }, { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is evenly matched against Mujaid Sadick and Florian Lejeune in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.347 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.094, "xg_multiplier": 0.9246, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mujaid Sadick and Florian Lejeune in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1104, "xg_multiplier": 0.9249, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mujaid Sadick and Florian Lejeune in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javi Morcillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0321, "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Morcillo (CDM) is evenly matched against Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Federico Redondo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.0283, "xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Redondo (CDM) is evenly matched against Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.028 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.437, "away_creative_power": 0.372, "home_defensive_power": 0.437, "away_defensive_power": 0.405, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.486, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Isi Palazón" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo", "Federico Redondo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Isi Palazón vs Federico Redondo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.0, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.997 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.286, "away_lambda": 1.111, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Matías Dituro", "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Roy Revivo", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Gonzalo Villar", "Federico Redondo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Germán Valera", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Germán Valera", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Iván Balliu": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Alemão", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Alemão", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thomas Lemar": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Florian Lejeune" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Federico Redondo": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Federico Redondo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.056, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0164, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0045, "home_midfield_factor": 1.0, "away_midfield_factor": 0.997, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4413, "away_avg_quality": 0.4465, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0052, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1707, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1515, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1674, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0257, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8055, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9416 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9416 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9416 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0829 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0183, "result": 1.1027 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.1144 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0164, "result": 1.1327 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.041, "result": 1.1737 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1737, "result": 1.1737, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0257, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1737, "result": 1.1737 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1737 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2002, "result": 1.3742 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 1.2861 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2861, "result": 1.286, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.286, "result": 1.286, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.286 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.286 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.286, "result": 1.286, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.286 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7573, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9055 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.997, "result": 0.9028 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9028 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9028 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9997, "result": 0.9025 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.9121 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0045, "result": 0.9162 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.056, "result": 0.9722 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9722, "result": 0.9722, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0257, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9722, "result": 0.9722 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9722 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1767, "result": 1.1487 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9852, "result": 1.1114 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1114, "result": 1.111, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.111, "result": 1.111, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.111 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.111 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.111, "result": 1.111, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.111 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2002, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1767, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.286, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.111, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2861, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1114, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.286, "final_away_lambda": 1.111 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0183, "attack_index": 0.991, "defense_concede_index": 1.049, "form_multiplier": 1.013, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.61, "team_ppg": 1.22, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9997, "attack_index": 0.871, "defense_concede_index": 1.154, "form_multiplier": 0.987, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.34, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.77, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.22 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.286, Away 1.111). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.286, Away 1.111 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 5, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.286, "away_lambda": 1.111, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.286, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.111 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T13:33:02Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }