{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1209, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0809, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0902, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2558, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1209 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0902 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0874 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0809 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0786 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0637, "0-1": 0.0902, "0-2": 0.0667, "0-3": 0.0324, "0-4": 0.0118, "0-5": 0.0035, "0-6": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0809, "1-1": 0.1209, "1-2": 0.0874, "1-3": 0.0426, "1-4": 0.0155, "1-5": 0.0045, "1-6": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0538, "2-1": 0.0786, "2-2": 0.0574, "2-3": 0.0279, "2-4": 0.0102, "2-5": 0.003, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0235, "3-1": 0.0344, "3-2": 0.0251, "3-3": 0.0122, "3-4": 0.0045, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0077, "4-1": 0.0113, "4-2": 0.0082, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.002, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0022, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3384, "draw": 0.2558, "away_win": 0.4058 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5238, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4762, "btts_yes": 0.5622, "btts_no": 0.4378, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2322, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2693 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.91, "GK": 7.11 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Racing Club vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Racing Club 5W-1D-4L vs Espanyol over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yassir Zabiri, Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Matteo Prati vs Javier Hernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.312, "away_lambda": 1.46, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1209, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3384, "draw": 0.2558, "away_win": 0.4058 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4058, "fair_spread": -0.148, "fair_total": 2.772, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.312, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.46, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5238, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5622, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2322, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2693, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yassir Zabiri (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.4785, "probability": 0.3803, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.5819, "probability": 0.4412, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2921, "probability": 0.2533, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1975, "probability": 0.1792, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.772, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 795, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4058, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.15 goals and fair total 2.77.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Roberto Fernández against Jeanuël Belocian, Alvaro Mantilla in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Yassir Zabiri; bench watchlist: Pablo García, Giorgi Guliashvili.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Gabriel Moscardo, Javi Puado.", "Assist usage should flow through Iñigo Vicente, Javier Hernández; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4785, "goal_rate": 0.4752, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7791, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.0438, "dispossessed": 0.6387, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.752, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0879, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3803, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0417, "finishing_factor": 1.1412, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4404, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2463, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5057, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7095, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6997, "combined_rank_score": 5331.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 112.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 10550.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yassir Zabiri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Garcés", "ranking": 6992 }, { "player_name": "Joel Canchimbo", "ranking": 6993 }, { "player_name": "Mateo García", "ranking": 6994 }, { "player_name": "Alan Rodríguez", "ranking": 6995 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Gamarra", "ranking": 6996 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Daniel Valencia", "ranking": 6998 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Bajrami", "ranking": 6999 }, { "player_name": "Iván Leguizamón", "ranking": 7000 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Lezcano", "ranking": 7001 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Mina", "ranking": 7002 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 9, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0156, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Racing Sant", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 117.0, "goals_per90": 2.3076923076923075, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.85, "shots_on_target_pct": 60.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 9 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Racing Sant, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 2.3076923076923075, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3713, "goals": 0.3967, "goal_rate": 0.3967, "shots_on_target": 0.9989, "total_shots": 2.3918, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7791, "minutes": 81.44, "total_pass": 8.1982, "accurate_pass": 6.1998, "duels_won": 1.9799, "total_long_balls": 0.2548, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2548, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9331, 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"rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1659, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.141, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1199, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1019, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0866, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0736, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0626, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 21.0, 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[ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0556, "total": 6.7791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059686 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.029181 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021297 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.016199 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015001 } ], "others_margin": -0.055557 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"margin": 0.115341 } ], "others_margin": 0.550648 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 3.3243861198425293, "model_output": 3.3244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2739 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.2204 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1889 } ], "others": 1.4922, "total": 3.3244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.327745 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.25466 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.155256 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.143994 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.108829 } ], "others_margin": 0.595787 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.124953269958496, "model_output": 7.125, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0746 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0478 } ], "others": 0.0588, "total": 7.125, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074569 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.064103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059204 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.052193 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.047838 } ], "others_margin": 0.058764 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0995, "shots_on_target": 0.3828, "total_shots": 0.953, "expected_assists": 0.2503, "key_pass": 3.3161, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 85.86, "total_pass": 70.6282, "accurate_pass": 54.5904, "duels_won": 5.4017, "total_long_balls": 6.2606, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.2678, "crosses_total": 5.3659, "crosses_accurate": 1.0023, "touches": 91.0795, "possession_lost": 25.391, "dispossessed": 1.3838, "duels_lost": 5.3734, "aerial_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 3.0344, "won_contest": 1.5089, "ball_recovery": 4.4784, "challenges_lost": 1.4905, "fouls": 0.9737, "fouls_drawn": 2.3061, "assists": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.3924, "interceptions": 0.8246, 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{ "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8246, "after": 0.8036 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1227, "after": 1.1036 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3828, "after": 0.3662 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.3061, "after": 2.2948 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.1733, "after": 0.1806 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0952, "goal_rate": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.3662, "total_shots": 0.9364, "expected_assists": 0.2503, "key_pass": 3.3161, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 85.86, "total_pass": 70.6282, "accurate_pass": 54.5904, "duels_won": 5.4017, "total_long_balls": 6.2606, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3563, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.2678, "crosses_total": 5.2515, "crosses_accurate": 1.0023, "touches": 91.0795, "possession_lost": 25.391, "dispossessed": 1.3838, "duels_lost": 5.3734, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1378, "goal_rate": 0.1378, "shots_on_target": 0.5576, "total_shots": 1.6812, "expected_assists": 0.1242, "key_pass": 1.1869, "rating": 6.8266, "minutes": 78.14, "total_pass": 34.3247, "accurate_pass": 29.669, "duels_won": 4.3636, "total_long_balls": 1.17, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5096, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7184, "crosses_total": 2.4412, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6698, "fouls_drawn": 1.9878, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4066, "tackles_won": 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"crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3909, "tackles_won": 0.6074, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.168, "blocks": 0.148, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1622, "offsides": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 15.3247, "total_progression": 68.2101, "progressive_carries": 2.1872, "shots_off_target": 1.1236 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0387, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8682, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4412, "after": 2.3602 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6812, "after": 1.7381 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", 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4.3636, "total_long_balls": 1.17, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5096, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7184, "crosses_total": 2.3602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3909, "tackles_won": 0.6074, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.168, "blocks": 0.148, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1482, "offsides": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 15.3247, "total_progression": 68.2101, "progressive_carries": 2.1872, "shots_off_target": 1.0264, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9135, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two 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2.3602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3909, "tackles_won": 0.6074, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.168, "blocks": 0.148, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1482, "offsides": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 15.3247, "total_progression": 68.2101, "progressive_carries": 2.1872, "shots_off_target": 1.0264, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9135, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": 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2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3909, "tackles_won": 0.6074, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.168, "blocks": 0.148, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1729, "offsides": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 15.3247, "total_progression": 68.2101, "progressive_carries": 2.1872, "shots_off_target": 1.0264, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9135, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.157, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0978, "after": 0.1141 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1242, "after": 0.1449 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5268, "total_shots": 1.5878, "expected_assists": 0.1449, "key_pass": 1.1869, "rating": 6.8266, "minutes": 78.14, "total_pass": 34.3247, "accurate_pass": 29.669, "duels_won": 4.3636, "total_long_balls": 1.17, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5096, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7184, "crosses_total": 2.3602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3909, "tackles_won": 0.6074, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.168, "blocks": 0.148, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1729, "offsides": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 15.3247, "total_progression": 68.2101, "progressive_carries": 2.1872, "shots_off_target": 1.0264, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9135, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.157, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2846, "fifa_rank": 1229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5268, "total_shots": 1.5878, "expected_assists": 0.1449, "key_pass": 1.1869, "rating": 6.8266, "minutes": 78.14, "total_pass": 34.3247, "accurate_pass": 29.669, "duels_won": 4.3636, "total_long_balls": 1.17, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5096, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7184, "crosses_total": 2.3602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 52.9151, "possession_lost": 12.5303, "dispossessed": 2.5314, "duels_lost": 4.8989, "aerial_lost": 0.5343, "total_contest": 1.5626, "won_contest": 1.0668, "ball_recovery": 3.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.6676, "fouls": 0.6573, "fouls_drawn": 1.9512, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1078, "goal_rate": 0.121, "scorer_weight": 0.132, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0954, "finishing_factor": 1.157, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.121, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5268, "total_shots": 1.5878, "expected_assists": 0.1449, "key_pass": 1.1869, "rating": 6.8266, "minutes": 78.14, "total_pass": 34.3247, "accurate_pass": 29.669, "duels_won": 4.3636, "total_long_balls": 1.17, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5096, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.401, 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"history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2492, "goals": 0.2193, "goal_rate": 0.2193, "shots_on_target": 0.665, "total_shots": 2.0191, "expected_assists": 0.1361, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.8228, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8916, "fouls_drawn": 1.619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9498, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6604, "xgot": 0.6358, "offsides": 0.7187, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3541 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0563)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2492, "goals": 0.2259, "goal_rate": 0.2259, "shots_on_target": 0.6832, "total_shots": 2.073, "expected_assists": 0.1361, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6604, "xgot": 0.6358, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3541 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0563, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8752, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0191, "after": 2.073 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9498, "after": 0.9721 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.665, "after": 0.6832 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.8228, "after": 3.835 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8916, "after": 0.8983 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2193, "after": 0.2259 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2492, "goals": 0.2259, "goal_rate": 0.2259, "shots_on_target": 0.6832, "total_shots": 2.073, "expected_assists": 0.1361, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6604, "xgot": 0.6358, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3541 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2407, "goals": 0.2182, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1361, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.614, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "skill_edge": 0.0167, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.5011, "defender_skill": 0.464, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "market_value": 5500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4907 } ], "xg_override": 0.2407 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.073, "after": 2.0019 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3541, "after": 1.3077 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6832, "after": 0.6598 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.6604, "after": 0.6377 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.6358, "after": 0.614 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2492, "after": 0.2407 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2259, "after": 0.2182 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2407, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1361, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.614, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2808, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.7164, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9226, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2407, "after": 0.2808 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1361, "after": 0.1588 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2808, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.7164, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2264, "fifa_rank": 1564.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2808, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.7164, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2448, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2448, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "scorer_weight": 0.2591, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.1873, "finishing_factor": 0.9226, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2808, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6598, "total_shots": 2.0019, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.5466, "rating": 6.9167, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 25.9718, "accurate_pass": 19.9686, "duels_won": 5.0145, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6049, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6011, "crosses_total": 3.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4519, "possession_lost": 14.4432, "dispossessed": 0.5614, "duels_lost": 4.8552, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7257, "won_contest": 1.8347, "ball_recovery": 4.5503, "challenges_lost": 1.5112, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 1.6226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "tackles": 1.5608, "clearances": 0.3885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6377, "xgot": 0.7164, "offsides": 0.7161, "ball_carries": 14.8657, "total_progression": 43.2811, "progressive_carries": 2.23, "shots_off_target": 1.3077, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", 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"importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2764 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1276 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0336 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 0.6816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27637 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049062 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033618 } ], "others_margin": -0.037646 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.968682765960693, "model_output": 6.9687, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 6.9687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031246 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021741 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01865 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018428 } ], "others_margin": 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"contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": 0.0085, "total": 0.5731, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039969 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.03668 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.015967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015018 } ], "others_margin": 0.008498 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705353736877441, "model_output": 6.7054, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.505)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3402, "tackles": 2.2809, "tackles_won": 1.3424, "clearances": 4.348, "aerial_won": 1.6799, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 88.85, "total_pass": 37.5243, "accurate_pass": 29.5651, "duels_won": 7.3269, "total_long_balls": 2.6067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6195, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9774, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2559, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3092, "crosses_total": 1.4693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0778, "touches": 64.3733, "possession_lost": 13.6329, "dispossessed": 0.6274, "duels_lost": 5.0233, "aerial_lost": 0.9901, "total_contest": 1.5589, "won_contest": 0.2705, "ball_recovery": 5.6534, "challenges_lost": 0.7258, "fouls": 1.3915, "fouls_drawn": 1.7542, "blocks": 0.2532, "goals": 0.0, 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0.6274, "duels_lost": 5.0233, "aerial_lost": 0.9901, "total_contest": 1.5589, "won_contest": 0.2705, "ball_recovery": 5.6534, "challenges_lost": 0.7258, "fouls": 1.3575, "fouls_drawn": 1.7186, "blocks": 0.2532, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1207, "assist_rate": 0.1207, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "expected_assists": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.2445, "big_chances_created": 0.1266, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 12.5729, "total_progression": 38.1142, "progressive_carries": 0.7158, "key_pass": 0.4946, "shots_off_target": 0.3326 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3238, "tackles": 2.2809, "tackles_won": 1.3412, "clearances": 4.348, "aerial_won": 1.6799, "total_shots": 0.5771, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 88.85, "total_pass": 37.5243, "accurate_pass": 29.5651, "duels_won": 7.3269, 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"defensive_success_rate": 0.654, "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3238, "tackles": 2.2809, "tackles_won": 1.3412, "clearances": 4.348, "aerial_won": 1.6799, "total_shots": 0.5771, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 88.85, "total_pass": 37.5243, "accurate_pass": 29.5651, "duels_won": 7.3269, "total_long_balls": 2.6067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6195, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9774, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2559, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3092, "crosses_total": 1.4775, "crosses_accurate": 0.0778, "touches": 64.3733, "possession_lost": 13.6329, "dispossessed": 0.6274, "duels_lost": 5.0233, "aerial_lost": 0.9901, "total_contest": 1.5589, "won_contest": 0.2705, "ball_recovery": 5.6534, "challenges_lost": 0.7258, "fouls": 1.3575, "fouls_drawn": 1.7186, "blocks": 0.2532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "expected_assists": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.2445, "big_chances_created": 0.1266, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 12.5729, "total_progression": 38.1142, "progressive_carries": 0.7158, "key_pass": 0.4946, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654, "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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"total_contest": 1.5589, "won_contest": 0.2705, "ball_recovery": 5.6534, "challenges_lost": 0.7258, "fouls": 1.3575, "fouls_drawn": 1.7186, "blocks": 0.2532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "expected_assists": 0.133, "shots_on_target": 0.2445, "big_chances_created": 0.1266, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 12.5729, "total_progression": 38.1142, "progressive_carries": 0.7158, "key_pass": 0.4946, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654, "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0409 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0478, "after": 0.0558 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.114, "after": 0.133 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": -0.076398 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.064832 } ], "others_margin": 0.032723 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.0641260147094727, "model_output": 2.0641, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1722 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0867 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0833 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0777 } ], "others": 0.2374, "total": 2.0641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.131691 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103457 }, { 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false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.02566 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.021101 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019257 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016132 } ], "others_margin": -0.054095 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.556)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2338, "tackles": 1.0715, "tackles_won": 0.7116, "clearances": 4.9418, "aerial_won": 2.0798, "total_shots": 0.52, "rating": 6.7093, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.7386, "accurate_pass": 47.0272, "duels_won": 2.3693, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 34.155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8321, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1952, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.3889, "possession_lost": 4.9136, "dispossessed": 0.3162, "duels_lost": 2.6002, "aerial_lost": 0.3883, "total_contest": 0.3162, "won_contest": 0.3162, "ball_recovery": 3.1907, "challenges_lost": 0.585, "fouls": 1.5391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8134, "blocks": 0.766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 22.6107, "total_progression": 102.5157, "progressive_carries": 1.66, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2513 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12900000, "quality_factor": 0.5559, "boost_factor": 1.0076, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2338, "tackles": 1.0715, "tackles_won": 0.7116, "clearances": 4.9418, "aerial_won": 2.0798, "total_shots": 0.52, "rating": 6.7093, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.7386, "accurate_pass": 47.0272, "duels_won": 2.3693, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 34.155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8321, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1952, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.3889, "possession_lost": 4.9136, "dispossessed": 0.3162, "duels_lost": 2.6002, "aerial_lost": 0.3883, "total_contest": 0.3162, "won_contest": 0.3162, "ball_recovery": 3.1907, "challenges_lost": 0.585, "fouls": 1.5391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8134, "blocks": 0.766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 22.6107, "total_progression": 102.5157, "progressive_carries": 1.66, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2513 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2338, "tackles": 1.0715, "tackles_won": 0.7116, "clearances": 4.9418, "aerial_won": 2.0798, "total_shots": 0.52, "rating": 6.7093, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.7386, "accurate_pass": 47.0272, "duels_won": 2.3693, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 34.155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8321, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1952, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.3889, "possession_lost": 4.9136, "dispossessed": 0.3162, "duels_lost": 2.6002, "aerial_lost": 0.3883, "total_contest": 0.3162, "won_contest": 0.3162, "ball_recovery": 3.1907, "challenges_lost": 0.585, "fouls": 1.5391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8134, "blocks": 0.766, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 22.6107, "total_progression": 102.5157, "progressive_carries": 1.66, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2513, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2338, "tackles": 1.0715, "tackles_won": 0.7116, "clearances": 4.9418, "aerial_won": 2.0798, "total_shots": 0.52, "rating": 6.7093, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.7386, "accurate_pass": 47.0272, "duels_won": 2.3693, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 34.155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8321, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1952, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.3889, "possession_lost": 4.9136, "dispossessed": 0.3162, "duels_lost": 2.6002, "aerial_lost": 0.3883, "total_contest": 0.3162, "won_contest": 0.3162, "ball_recovery": 3.1907, "challenges_lost": 0.585, "fouls": 1.5391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8134, "blocks": 0.766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 22.6107, "total_progression": 102.5157, "progressive_carries": 1.66, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2513, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2338, "tackles": 1.0715, "tackles_won": 0.7116, "clearances": 4.9418, "aerial_won": 2.0798, "total_shots": 0.52, "rating": 6.7093, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.7386, "accurate_pass": 47.0272, "duels_won": 2.3693, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 34.155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8321, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1952, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.3889, "possession_lost": 4.9136, "dispossessed": 0.3162, "duels_lost": 2.6002, "aerial_lost": 0.3883, "total_contest": 0.3162, "won_contest": 0.3162, "ball_recovery": 3.1907, "challenges_lost": 0.585, "fouls": 1.5391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8134, "blocks": 0.766, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.019, "ball_carries": 22.6107, "total_progression": 102.5157, "progressive_carries": 1.66, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2513, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.846 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.133202 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113038 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.091266 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.069155 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049324 } ], "others_margin": -0.125244 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47853100299835205, "model_output": 0.4785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1301, "tackles": 1.643, "tackles_won": 0.9878, "clearances": 5.7661, "aerial_won": 1.9119, "total_shots": 0.4745, "rating": 6.8777, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 54.9113, "accurate_pass": 49.0891, "duels_won": 5.5213, "total_long_balls": 4.1586, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2816, "total_own_half_passes": 35.1111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.2922, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7968, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2768, "possession_lost": 7.4659, "dispossessed": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 3.4371, "aerial_lost": 1.9297, "total_contest": 0.4252, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 5.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.4815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2948, "blocks": 0.3634, "goals": 0.0, 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"pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1612, "tackles": 1.643, "tackles_won": 1.0235, "clearances": 5.7661, "aerial_won": 1.9119, "total_shots": 0.4688, "rating": 6.8777, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 54.9113, "accurate_pass": 49.0891, "duels_won": 5.5213, "total_long_balls": 4.1586, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2816, "total_own_half_passes": 35.1111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.2922, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7968, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2768, "possession_lost": 7.4659, "dispossessed": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 3.4371, "aerial_lost": 1.9297, "total_contest": 0.4252, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 5.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.4828, "fouls_drawn": 1.2866, "blocks": 0.3634, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1669, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0057, "ball_carries": 24.4667, "total_progression": 90.3958, "progressive_carries": 1.1779, "key_pass": 0.3448, "shots_off_target": 0.3019, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1612, "tackles": 1.643, "tackles_won": 1.0235, "clearances": 5.7661, "aerial_won": 1.9119, "total_shots": 0.4688, "rating": 6.8777, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 54.9113, "accurate_pass": 49.0891, "duels_won": 5.5213, "total_long_balls": 4.1586, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2816, "total_own_half_passes": 35.1111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.2922, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7968, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2768, "possession_lost": 7.4659, "dispossessed": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 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"creation_factor": 0.8347 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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], "others_margin": -0.005852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7346, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2586, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0203)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0203, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7346, "after": 2.7468 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2586, "after": 0.2669 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4702, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4702 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4702, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4702, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.41, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.0, "after": 13.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.43, "after": 3.41 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.18, "after": 1.17 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4702, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.41, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 932, "fifa_rank": 433.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2669, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8481, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4702, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.41, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7468, "goals_prevented": 0.3852, "rating": 7.1118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.9638, "accurate_pass": 17.1837, "total_long_balls": 7.3671, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5896, "touches": 35.4107, "clearances": 1.3272, "ball_recovery": 8.565, "high_claims": 1.2016, "punches": 1.1583, "aerial_won": 0.3193, "sweeper_actions": 1.5109, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4237, "saves_inside_box": 2.4876, "possession_lost": 4.7851, "duels_won": 0.776, "duels_lost": 0.1194, 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0.3651, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1384, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matteo Prati": { "player_id": 1111640, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 5000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "assist_rate": 0.0647, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8438, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0284, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0462, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 1.0541, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, 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"match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4525, "combined_rank_score": 2558.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 4158.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": 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0.326, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 0.1571, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.241045 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.199556 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106078 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.040855 } ], "others_margin": -0.28112 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5892771482467651, "model_output": 0.5893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1863 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.038 } ], "others": -0.1985, "total": 0.5893, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.186289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126607 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067796 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043585 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.038027 } ], "others_margin": -0.198528 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.843753337860107, "model_output": 6.8438, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0457, "total": 6.8438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030054 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022939 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020521 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.016198 } ], "others_margin": -0.045619 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.462)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5379, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "goals": 0.0458, "goal_rate": 0.0458, "shots_on_target": 0.1562, "total_shots": 0.5859, "rating": 6.8438, "minutes": 84.14, "total_pass": 42.2515, "accurate_pass": 36.2995, "duels_won": 4.6649, "total_long_balls": 2.3349, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4834, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5148, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8162, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.687, "possession_lost": 8.0284, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4086, "aerial_won": 0.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.9287, "interceptions": 0.6897, "tackles_won": 1.4858, "tackles": 2.1464, "clearances": 2.7827, "total_contest": 1.9116, "won_contest": 1.0976, "challenges_lost": 1.5013, "fouls": 0.1646, "fouls_drawn": 0.9249, "blocks": 0.6629, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.8417, "total_progression": 32.0287, "progressive_carries": 0.14, "shots_off_target": 0.4297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5000000, "quality_factor": 0.4622, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5379, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0647, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "shots_on_target": 0.155, "total_shots": 0.5813, "rating": 6.8438, "minutes": 84.14, "total_pass": 42.2515, "accurate_pass": 36.2995, "duels_won": 4.6649, "total_long_balls": 2.3349, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, 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[ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 6.6398, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.036429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016324 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015653 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015354 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014826 } ], "others_margin": -0.052045 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3935, "tackles": 0.5031, "tackles_won": 0.3009, "clearances": 1.772, "aerial_won": 0.5496, "total_shots": 0.1469, "rating": 6.6398, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 19.8272, "accurate_pass": 15.7066, "duels_won": 2.4919, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.5452, "possession_lost": 4.2846, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7406, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9406, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.4975, "fouls_drawn": 0.6127, "blocks": 0.9197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1383, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3705, "tackles": 0.4737, "tackles_won": 0.2833, "clearances": 1.6684, "aerial_won": 0.5175, "total_shots": 0.1383, "rating": 6.6398, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1383, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3705, "tackles": 0.4737, "tackles_won": 0.2833, "clearances": 1.6684, "aerial_won": 0.5175, "total_shots": 0.1383, "rating": 6.6398, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1383, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5579, "fifa_rank": 6974.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Pedro Felipe": { "player_id": 1485292, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5436, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.8779, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1780, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5436, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedro Felipe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tsenov", "ranking": 1775 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Myakish", "ranking": 1776 }, { "player_name": "Jun'ai 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}, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3069, "tackles": 0.6196, "tackles_won": 0.3895, "clearances": 0.9684, "aerial_won": 0.4922, "total_shots": 0.1431, "rating": 6.5436, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 5.8377, "accurate_pass": 4.7794, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4489, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.1079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3304, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6754, "possession_lost": 1.7279, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9436, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7191, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 1.1662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, 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"contribution": 0.0481 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0384 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 0.4922, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.857258 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.288128 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.103692 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.077823 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.075462 } ], "others_margin": 0.004745 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14309148490428925, "model_output": 0.1431, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0537, "total": 0.1431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.184421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073274 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021767 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.014969 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013596 } ], "others_margin": -0.053759 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.543575286865234, "model_output": 6.5436, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 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"shots_off_target": 0.1555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3335, "tackles": 0.6733, "tackles_won": 0.4232, "clearances": 1.0524, "aerial_won": 0.535, "total_shots": 0.1555, "rating": 6.5436, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 6.3443, "accurate_pass": 5.1941, "duels_won": 0.8449, "total_long_balls": 0.3591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8349, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.204, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3591, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.6017, "possession_lost": 1.8779, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1122, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7815, "challenges_lost": 0.7676, 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"xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6593, "total_progression": 5.089, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1780, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "player_id": 1174889, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 171, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0581, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.0519, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 99, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 11, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 4, "fouls_drawn": 4, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 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90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3575, "combined_rank_score": 1536.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2915.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0519, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gustavo Puerta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "ranking": 3570 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Roldan", "ranking": 3571 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Pereyra", "ranking": 3572 }, { "player_name": "Moise Bombito", "ranking": 3573 }, { "player_name": "Germán Berterame", "ranking": 3574 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Ojeda", "ranking": 3576 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gómez", "ranking": 3577 }, { "player_name": "David Douděra", "ranking": 3578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Peretz", "ranking": 3579 }, { "player_name": "Callum McGregor", "ranking": 3580 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", 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}, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0022, "total": 0.0518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31161 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.120814 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.106034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093602 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.089343 } ], "others_margin": -0.043884 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.023121753707528114, "model_output": 0.0231, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.0231, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550813 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.357346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137958 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.133935 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 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-0.179563 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.138698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.099236 } ], "others_margin": 0.059494 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.09816884249448776, "model_output": 0.0982, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1449 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.0982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.245851 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.160426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103383 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.064255 } ], "others_margin": -0.038403 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3145357072353363, "model_output": 0.3145, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3319 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1488 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0337 } ], "others": -0.1707, "total": 0.3145, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331896 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.148752 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050363 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.047654 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033695 } ], "others_margin": -0.170725 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.051945209503174, "model_output": 7.0519, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1003 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0812 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0242, "total": 7.0519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.136452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081168 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028482 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025708 } ], "others_margin": 0.024377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0221, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5103, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.1003, "total_shots": 0.3215, "rating": 7.0519, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, "total_own_half_passes": 28.436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1624, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9546, "crosses_total": 0.3377, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.651, "possession_lost": 12.0904, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 8.8343, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.5741, "tackles_won": 1.0817, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 0.6844, "total_contest": 1.8078, "won_contest": 0.735, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.4547, "fouls_drawn": 3.3375, "blocks": 0.3973, "big_chances_created": 0.2871, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.7591, "total_progression": 45.6318, "progressive_carries": 0.5741, "shots_off_target": 0.2212 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0221, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5103, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.0922, "total_shots": 0.3069, "rating": 7.0519, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.481301 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.264512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.141805 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.096653 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.068378 } ], "others_margin": -0.13633 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13040241599082947, "model_output": 0.1304, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.1304, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.520357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.174132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087928 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.053671 } ], "others_margin": 0.013711 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4163864850997925, "model_output": 0.4164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.4164, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.376593 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222627 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053638 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026112 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015574 } ], "others_margin": 0.006757 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77570104598999, "model_output": 6.7757, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1038 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 6.7757, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103836 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025093 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014581 }, { "name": "totalProgression", 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"model_output": 0.3517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2569 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": 0.0212, "total": 0.3517, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.08374 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066293 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065464 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032687 } ], "others_margin": 0.062326 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6224260330200195, "model_output": 6.6224, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.072 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0434, "total": 6.6224, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072049 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025706 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016916 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011998 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009675 } ], "others_margin": -0.043341 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.3032, "total_shots": 1.0181, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3517, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 5.9118, "accurate_pass": 5.141, "duels_won": 0.9527, "total_long_balls": 0.1041, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0923, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7768, "crosses_total": 0.1777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.1621, "possession_lost": 2.741, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 1.5877, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.5536, "won_contest": 0.2856, "ball_recovery": 1.0669, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.354, "fouls_drawn": 0.5005, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0485, "tackles_won": 0.0593, "tackles": 0.1665, "clearances": 0.3427, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0163, "xgot": 0.0646, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 4.9065, "total_progression": 14.652, "progressive_carries": 1.0137, "shots_off_target": 0.7149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 18.14, "minutes_scale": 1.4082, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0951, "after": 0.0632 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.032, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5059, "fifa_rank": 5917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "scorer_weight": 0.0682, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0493, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": 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{ "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0704, "total": 6.5866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.046471 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028665 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01222 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011633 } ], "others_margin": -0.070377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9906, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.5083, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.2148, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 13.92, "total_pass": 2.2982, "accurate_pass": 1.8916, "duels_won": 0.7865, "total_long_balls": 0.164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.164, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8452, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2605, "possession_lost": 0.937, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.0118, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.42, "ball_recovery": 0.55, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1395, "fouls_drawn": 0.3664, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1395, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.227, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1775, "total_progression": 1.4517, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "shots_off_target": 0.3116 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9906, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.31, "projection_minutes": 13.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.11, "after": 0.0719 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "scorer_weight": 0.0745, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0539, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0075, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0075, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0062, "squad_weight_total": 0.9828, "weight_share": 0.0063, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.3651, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3651, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1384, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Pablo García": { "player_id": 1893910, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 175, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1087, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.072 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0434, "total": 6.6224, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072049 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025706 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016916 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011998 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009675 } ], "others_margin": -0.043341 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.3032, "total_shots": 1.0181, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3517, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 5.9118, "accurate_pass": 5.141, "duels_won": 0.9527, "total_long_balls": 0.1041, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0923, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7768, "crosses_total": 0.1777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.1621, "possession_lost": 2.741, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 1.5877, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.5536, "won_contest": 0.2856, "ball_recovery": 1.0669, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.354, "fouls_drawn": 0.5005, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0485, "tackles_won": 0.0593, "tackles": 0.1665, "clearances": 0.3427, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0163, "xgot": 0.0646, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 4.9065, "total_progression": 14.652, "progressive_carries": 1.0137, "shots_off_target": 0.7149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 18.14, "minutes_scale": 1.4082, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0951, "after": 0.0632 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.032, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5059, "fifa_rank": 5917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "scorer_weight": 0.0682, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0493, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.4953, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.3249, "accurate_pass": 7.2394, "duels_won": 1.3416, "total_long_balls": 0.1466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.13, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3184, "crosses_total": 0.2502, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7182, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 2.2358, "aerial_lost": 0.0312, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.4022, "ball_recovery": 1.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.2759, "fouls": 0.4985, "fouls_drawn": 0.7048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.0835, "tackles": 0.2345, "clearances": 0.4826, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.023, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.1295, "ball_carries": 6.9092, "total_progression": 20.6326, "progressive_carries": 1.4275, "shots_off_target": 1.0067, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0786, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.017, "squad_weight_total": 0.9828, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.3651, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3651, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1384, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "player_id": 965257, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0075, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3663, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9906, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.5083, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.2148, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 13.92, "total_pass": 2.2982, "accurate_pass": 1.8916, "duels_won": 0.7865, "total_long_balls": 0.164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.164, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8452, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2605, "possession_lost": 0.937, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.0118, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.42, "ball_recovery": 0.55, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1395, "fouls_drawn": 0.3664, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1395, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.227, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1775, "total_progression": 1.4517, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "shots_off_target": 0.3116 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9906, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.31, "projection_minutes": 13.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.31 (squad xG sum 1.1245, xG scale 1.1667, xA scale 1.1667, team xA 0.98 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.312, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8366, "team_expected_assists": 0.9761, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.744, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1667, "xa_scale": 1.1667, "opponent_lambda": 1.46, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.11, "after": 0.0719 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "scorer_weight": 0.0745, "squad_weight_total": 1.3832, "weight_share": 0.0539, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.5461, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5461, "runner_up": "Andrés Martín", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2591 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.7624, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.3222, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.4674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0075, "finishing_factor": 1.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0075, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0062, "squad_weight_total": 0.9828, "weight_share": 0.0063, "creation_factor": 0.8104, "appearance_weight": 0.56, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "weight": 0.3651, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3651, "runner_up": "Jorge Salinas", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1384, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.31, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 454, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Espanyol": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Edu Expósito": { "player_id": 877262, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 175, "market_value": 4500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1975, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1407, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9973, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1313, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1792, "finishing_factor": 1.0555, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421071, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1762, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0597, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, 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"key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.456)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assists": 0.1033, "assist_rate": 0.1033, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1172, "shots_on_target": 0.4221, "total_shots": 1.2737, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.6204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.905, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5306, "tackles_won": 1.3697, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9327, "fouls_drawn": 0.5599, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4500000, "quality_factor": 0.456, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assists": 0.1021, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.4211, "total_shots": 1.2945, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.905, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9072, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.6204, "after": 3.5898 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2737, "after": 1.2945 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assists": 0.1021, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.4211, "total_shots": 1.2945, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.905, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8516 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assists": 0.1021, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "expected_goals": 0.1068, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0186, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9973, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9973, "skill_edge": 0.0101, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4622, "defender_skill": 0.4396, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4396 } ], "xg_override": 0.1068 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.905, "after": 0.9 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1068, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0186, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, 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"shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9973, 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"description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.1975, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1407, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 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"fifa_rank": 1553.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.1975, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1407, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3228, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9582, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0153, "crosses_total": 3.5898, "crosses_accurate": 0.9116, "touches": 54.9791, "possession_lost": 12.1384, "dispossessed": 0.9203, "duels_lost": 4.4785, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.4848, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 1.3694, "tackles": 2.0268, "clearances": 1.5512, "total_contest": 1.7045, "won_contest": 1.173, "challenges_lost": 0.6459, "fouls": 0.9297, "fouls_drawn": 0.5612, "blocks": 0.2163, "big_chances_created": 0.3201, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 12.7528, "total_progression": 58.7089, "progressive_carries": 1.4307, "shots_off_target": 0.8493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9973, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1313, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0555, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1313, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "scorer_weight": 0.1485, "squad_weight_total": 1.4744, "weight_share": 0.1007, "finishing_factor": 1.0555, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.6148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6148, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1869 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.413, "expected_assists": 0.1975, "assist_rate": 0.1021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1407, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.42, "total_shots": 1.291, "rating": 7.0414, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 38.1902, "accurate_pass": 31.9736, "duels_won": 4.6516, "total_long_balls": 3.5025, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9929, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.9079, "tackles_won": 1.1399, "clearances": 2.8838, "aerial_won": 0.8673, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6073, "minutes": 77.98, "total_pass": 29.6658, "accurate_pass": 24.396, "duels_won": 3.5948, "total_long_balls": 3.1683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3029, "total_own_half_passes": 14.633, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.899, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.497, "crosses_total": 0.1977, "crosses_accurate": 0.0909, "touches": 45.0288, "possession_lost": 7.3821, "dispossessed": 0.5045, "duels_lost": 3.6896, "aerial_lost": 1.3917, "total_contest": 0.3709, "won_contest": 0.0909, "ball_recovery": 3.5548, "challenges_lost": 0.6654, "fouls": 0.9735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3961, "blocks": 0.0909, "goals": 0.0, 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"step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8266, "tackles": 1.9079, "tackles_won": 1.1674, "clearances": 2.8838, "aerial_won": 0.8673, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6073, "minutes": 77.98, "total_pass": 29.6658, "accurate_pass": 24.396, "duels_won": 3.5948, "total_long_balls": 3.1683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3029, "total_own_half_passes": 14.633, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.899, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.497, "crosses_total": 0.2019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0909, "touches": 45.0288, "possession_lost": 7.3821, "dispossessed": 0.5045, "duels_lost": 3.6896, "aerial_lost": 1.3917, "total_contest": 0.3709, "won_contest": 0.0909, "ball_recovery": 3.5548, "challenges_lost": 0.6654, "fouls": 0.9685, "fouls_drawn": 0.3911, "blocks": 0.0909, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0084, "expected_assists": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1652, "total_progression": 53.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.9962, "key_pass": 0.2397, "shots_off_target": 0.324, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ramón, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8266, "tackles": 1.9079, "tackles_won": 1.1674, "clearances": 2.8838, "aerial_won": 0.8673, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6073, 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"margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.336689 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.111698 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106885 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.074204 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053432 } ], "others_margin": 0.070185 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.690240740776062, "model_output": 0.6902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1474 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.6902, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.147378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053468 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024626 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020852 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.014548 } ], "others_margin": -0.003867 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8226823806762695, "model_output": 6.8227, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.8227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.026105 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.024578 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02055 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014687 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013291 } ], "others_margin": 0.011618 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2624, "blocks": 0.511, "goals": 0.0072, "goal_rate": 0.0072, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1205, "big_chances_created": 0.0022, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 10.895, "total_progression": 37.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "key_pass": 0.0712, "shots_off_target": 0.5682 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 930000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2624, "blocks": 0.511, "goals": 0.0072, "goal_rate": 0.0072, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1205, "big_chances_created": 0.0022, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 10.895, "total_progression": 37.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "key_pass": 0.0712, "shots_off_target": 0.5682 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2624, "blocks": 0.511, "goals": 0.0072, "goal_rate": 0.0072, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1205, "big_chances_created": 0.0022, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 10.895, "total_progression": 37.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "key_pass": 0.0712, "shots_off_target": 0.5682, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2624, "blocks": 0.511, "goal_rate": 0.0072, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1205, "big_chances_created": 0.0022, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 10.895, "total_progression": 37.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "key_pass": 0.0712, "shots_off_target": 0.5682, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2624, "blocks": 0.511, "goal_rate": 0.0072, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "expected_assists": 0.039, "shots_on_target": 0.1205, "big_chances_created": 0.0022, "xgot": 0.0232, "ball_carries": 10.895, "total_progression": 37.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "key_pass": 0.0712, "shots_off_target": 0.5682, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0556, "after": 0.0732 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0296, "after": 0.039 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1948.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.1243, "tackles_won": 0.6306, "clearances": 6.5284, "aerial_won": 2.9353, "total_shots": 0.6888, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.3884, "accurate_pass": 38.6332, "duels_won": 3.9873, "total_long_balls": 7.0101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.924, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.7183, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.915, "crosses_total": 0.2682, "crosses_accurate": 0.0247, "touches": 61.1586, "possession_lost": 9.5898, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.962, "aerial_lost": 1.6774, "total_contest": 0.0547, "won_contest": 0.0223, "ball_recovery": 2.8801, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 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{ "player_name": "Seung-wan Ryu", "ranking": 816 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.513, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", 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0.184 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1923 } ], "others": -0.1271, "total": 4.144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136006 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.124553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117054 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.046151 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.046064 } ], "others_margin": -0.030186 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4160631895065308, "model_output": 1.4161, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3198 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1543 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1274 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.1052 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1008 } ], "others": 0.0646, "total": 1.4161, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.262473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135218 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.099363 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.075169 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071939 } ], "others_margin": 0.046725 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.36745747923851013, "model_output": 0.3675, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0992 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 0.3675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.099172 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045884 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021442 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01525 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013422 } ], "others_margin": -0.046964 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.66876745223999, "model_output": 6.6688, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 6.6688, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035982 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.03421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017091 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016348 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012747 } ], "others_margin": -0.005238 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9939, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6788, "tackles": 1.4702, "tackles_won": 0.8876, "clearances": 4.1187, "aerial_won": 1.4074, "total_shots": 0.3653, "rating": 6.6688, "minutes": 82.97, "total_pass": 20.5812, "accurate_pass": 16.1598, "duels_won": 2.7574, "total_long_balls": 3.4857, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7945, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7243, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7451, "possession_lost": 4.7332, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0929, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6423, "fouls_drawn": 0.6761, "blocks": 0.7626, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049674 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015101 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008128 } ], "others_margin": -0.005699 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.748248100280762, "model_output": 6.7482, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0235, "total": 6.7482, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015688 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01379 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009684 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008725 } ], "others_margin": 0.023589 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.908, "tackles": 1.0633, "tackles_won": 0.6238, "clearances": 5.0403, "aerial_won": 1.7852, "total_shots": 0.3584, "rating": 6.7482, "minutes": 86.19, "total_pass": 45.0941, "accurate_pass": 38.841, "duels_won": 3.4439, "total_long_balls": 5.9294, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0462, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.8302, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0107, "crosses_total": 0.024, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 56.5441, "possession_lost": 6.9985, "dispossessed": 0.0934, "duels_lost": 3.4598, "aerial_lost": 1.587, "total_contest": 0.4059, "won_contest": 0.4059, "ball_recovery": 2.7409, "challenges_lost": 0.4387, "fouls": 1.4847, "fouls_drawn": 0.3095, "blocks": 0.4861, "goals": 0.0, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.3589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.126988 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048978 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022445 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012745 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011041 } ], "others_margin": -0.036677 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.761118412017822, "model_output": 6.7611, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.7611, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01765 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01751 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01414 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01185 } ], "others_margin": -0.016459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.589)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0164, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1883, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5741, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0623, "fouls_drawn": 0.8407, "blocks": 0.4615, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0927, "assist_rate": 0.0927, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15900000, "quality_factor": 0.5889, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.983, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.5741, "after": 2.5878 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8407, "after": 0.8295 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1883, "after": 1.1812 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1254, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9745 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0952, "after": 0.1254 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1254, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3547, "fifa_rank": 2410.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1254, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4744, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.6148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6148, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1869 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0203, "tackles": 1.7793, "tackles_won": 1.1812, "clearances": 3.3423, "aerial_won": 1.2641, "total_shots": 0.3598, "rating": 6.7611, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 26.6483, "accurate_pass": 20.9769, "duels_won": 4.725, "total_long_balls": 3.4942, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5644, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4426, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5343, "crosses_total": 2.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.6234, "touches": 49.6281, "possession_lost": 10.7124, "dispossessed": 0.3158, "duels_lost": 3.7039, "aerial_lost": 1.1004, "total_contest": 0.4657, "won_contest": 0.2765, "ball_recovery": 2.3198, "challenges_lost": 0.4222, "fouls": 2.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.8295, "blocks": 0.4615, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1254, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8353, "total_progression": 32.9431, "progressive_carries": 0.9506, "key_pass": 0.4105, "shots_off_target": 0.3598, "opponent_faced": "Jorge Salinas, Julen Agirrezabala", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1179, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "provider_weight": 0.1222, "squad_weight_total": 0.8905, "weight_share": 0.1372, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2107, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2107, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.158, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ángel Fortuño": { "player_id": 1082734, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 183, "market_value": 290000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 3, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3032, "shots_faced": 12.5, "expected_saves": 3.06, "high_pressure_saves": 1.05, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", 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"goals_prevented": 0.2618 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 24, "combined_rank_score": 25.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 35.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9343, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Angel Fortuno", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gustavo Henrique", "ranking": 19 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "ranking": 20 }, { "player_name": "Marc Bartra", "ranking": 21 }, { "player_name": "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia", "ranking": 22 }, { "player_name": "Danijel Petković", "ranking": 23 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hyun-woo Cho", "ranking": 25 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Kimmich", "ranking": 26 }, { "player_name": "Ljupche Doriev", "ranking": 27 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Romo", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Michael Olise", "ranking": 29 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", 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0.8434, "saves": 4.4879, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3584, "save_contribution": 4.7561, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 11.966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.980564594268799, "model_output": 2.9806, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0183, "total": 2.9806, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.00985 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.006914 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006213 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.005996 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004423 } ], "others_margin": 0.006173 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08741598576307297, "model_output": -0.0874, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0532, "total": -0.0874, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.02771 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.017608 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.016364 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012088 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.011778 } ], "others_margin": -0.053286 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.934327125549316, "model_output": 6.9343, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 6.9343, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015161 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014152 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014069 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013737 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013382 } ], "others_margin": -0.014326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 290000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3032, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3032 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3032, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3032, "shots_faced": 12.5, "expected_saves": 3.06, "high_pressure_saves": 1.05, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.4, "after": 12.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.04, "after": 3.06 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.04, "after": 1.05 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9427, "goals_prevented": -0.0863, "rating": 6.9343, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.4221, "accurate_pass": 16.7035, "total_long_balls": 20.4848, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7663, "touches": 47.3107, "clearances": 0.3262, "ball_recovery": 12.1565, "high_claims": 3.0751, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5546, "sweeper_actions": 1.42, "sweeper_accurate": 1.42, "saves_inside_box": 2.3008, "possession_lost": 14.2732, "duels_won": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8139, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3032, "shots_faced": 12.5, "expected_saves": 3.06, "high_pressure_saves": 1.05, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Andrés Martín", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7114, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3425, "total_shots": 1.0009, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 77.69, "total_pass": 32.9171, "accurate_pass": 27.1135, "duels_won": 3.3481, "total_long_balls": 1.9224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6511, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1462, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0364, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0771, "crosses_total": 0.959, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 44.6619, "possession_lost": 8.1553, "dispossessed": 0.4135, "duels_lost": 3.8769, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7603, "interceptions": 0.7865, "tackles_won": 1.1377, "tackles": 1.8342, "clearances": 1.1732, "total_contest": 0.469, "won_contest": 0.2746, "challenges_lost": 1.0354, "fouls": 1.4892, "fouls_drawn": 0.8489, "blocks": 0.2446, 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10.1449, "total_progression": 21.8416, "progressive_carries": 0.5954, "shots_off_target": 0.6551, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9029, "creation_factor": 0.9808 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.09, 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"importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2112 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0918 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.096 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0776 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0497 } ], "others": 0.2726, "total": 1.4794, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.270327 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.097941 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093173 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.069412 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.042076 } ], "others_margin": 0.2037 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.961441516876221, "model_output": 6.9614, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0462, "total": 6.9614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063474 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.049032 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029195 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.024713 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.019515 } ], "others_margin": 0.046262 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1426, "goals": 0.1546, "goal_rate": 0.1546, "shots_on_target": 0.5457, "total_shots": 1.6634, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "key_pass": 1.4785, "rating": 6.9614, "minutes": 77.13, "total_pass": 21.3054, "accurate_pass": 17.0746, "duels_won": 4.8778, "total_long_balls": 1.9984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2296, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5348, "crosses_total": 4.3909, "crosses_accurate": 1.2764, "touches": 40.5648, "possession_lost": 13.1652, "dispossessed": 0.591, "duels_lost": 4.896, "aerial_lost": 0.4938, "total_contest": 4.6588, "won_contest": 2.1768, "ball_recovery": 2.3918, "challenges_lost": 0.668, "fouls": 0.6612, "fouls_drawn": 1.7225, "assists": 0.0442, "assist_rate": 0.0442, "interceptions": 0.0375, 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11.5348, "crosses_total": 4.3909, "crosses_accurate": 1.2764, "touches": 40.5648, "possession_lost": 13.1652, "dispossessed": 0.591, "duels_lost": 4.896, "aerial_lost": 0.4938, "total_contest": 4.6588, "won_contest": 2.1768, "ball_recovery": 2.3918, "challenges_lost": 0.668, "fouls": 0.6612, "fouls_drawn": 1.7225, "assists": 0.0442, "assist_rate": 0.0442, "interceptions": 0.0375, "tackles_won": 0.6175, "tackles": 0.9408, "clearances": 0.1631, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1941, "offsides": 0.2458, "ball_carries": 18.4136, "total_progression": 97.221, "progressive_carries": 4.4094, "shots_off_target": 1.1176 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1274, "goals": 0.1382, "goal_rate": 0.1382, "shots_on_target": 0.4877, "total_shots": 1.4866, 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17.0746, "duels_won": 4.8778, "total_long_balls": 1.9984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2296, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5348, "crosses_total": 4.3909, "crosses_accurate": 1.2764, "touches": 40.5648, "possession_lost": 13.1652, "dispossessed": 0.591, "duels_lost": 4.896, "aerial_lost": 0.4938, "total_contest": 4.6588, "won_contest": 2.1768, "ball_recovery": 2.3918, "challenges_lost": 0.668, "fouls": 0.6612, "fouls_drawn": 1.7225, "assist_rate": 0.0442, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0375, "tackles_won": 0.6175, "tackles": 0.9408, "clearances": 0.1631, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1735, "offsides": 0.2458, "ball_carries": 18.4136, "total_progression": 97.221, "progressive_carries": 4.4094, "shots_off_target": 0.9988, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8937, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jeanuël Belocian, Alvaro Mantilla", "opponent_faced": "Jeanuël Belocian, Alvaro Mantilla", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1678, "goal_rate": 0.1382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4877, "total_shots": 1.4866, "expected_assists": 0.1906, "key_pass": 1.4785, "rating": 6.9614, "minutes": 77.13, "total_pass": 21.3054, "accurate_pass": 17.0746, "duels_won": 4.8778, "total_long_balls": 1.9984, "accurate_long_balls": 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"keyPass", "predicted": 0.5615322589874268, "model_output": 0.5615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1866 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0286 } ], "others": -0.1382, "total": 0.5615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24238 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06803 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058589 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4047, "goals": 0.4238, "goal_rate": 0.4238, "shots_on_target": 1.0517, "total_shots": 2.2827, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.5637, "rating": 6.8284, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 10.6146, "accurate_pass": 7.1419, "duels_won": 4.4815, "total_long_balls": 0.3371, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1471, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2621, "crosses_total": 0.1356, "crosses_accurate": 0.0081, "touches": 22.5623, "possession_lost": 7.6522, "dispossessed": 0.4477, "duels_lost": 5.8958, "aerial_lost": 3.1377, "total_contest": 0.5758, "won_contest": 0.2354, "ball_recovery": 1.0526, "challenges_lost": 0.5989, "fouls": 1.5359, "fouls_drawn": 1.538, "assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0261, "interceptions": 0.1213, 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-0.3181 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.7533 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7879 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1310, "combined_rank_score": 568.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9847, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (44 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8825, "goals_prevented": 0.0384, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5859, "accurate_pass": 16.4781, "total_long_balls": 14.4926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4232, "touches": 38.9317, "clearances": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 10.9523, "high_claims": 1.8074, "punches": 0.6176, "aerial_won": 0.2246, "sweeper_actions": 1.6054, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4353, "saves_inside_box": 2.0161, "possession_lost": 9.2489, "duels_won": 0.3388, "duels_lost": 0.2334, "total_contest": 0.0922, "won_contest": 0.0922, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3167 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:04:55.355626+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.2489, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8664, "saves": 3.4154, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0773, "save_contribution": 3.3589, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.3167 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8824687004089355, "model_output": 2.8825, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.136 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.021, "total": 2.8825, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047444 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.012805 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.008671 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.006225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.005883 } ], "others_margin": 0.007311 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.03836139664053917, "model_output": 0.0384, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.0384, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.042415 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.019496 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013454 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.012611 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.012098 } ], "others_margin": 0.004837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.984735012054443, "model_output": 6.9847, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": 0.0161, "total": 6.9847, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.027383 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025656 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.025185 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.020544 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019197 } ], "others_margin": 0.015996 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8764, "goals_prevented": 0.0383, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1589, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 650000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8564, "goals_prevented": 0.0383, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8764, "after": 2.8564 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4402, "goals_prevented": 0.0059, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4402, "goals_prevented": 0.0059, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4402, "goals_prevented": 0.0059, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4402, "goals_prevented": 0.0059, "rating": 6.9847, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0512, "total": 0.1072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.211315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084142 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023773 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009694 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.007032 } ], "others_margin": -0.051137 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.693054676055908, "model_output": 6.6931, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 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0.0312, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 5.4214, "total_progression": 16.4798, "progressive_carries": 0.2376, "key_pass": 0.4545, "shots_off_target": 0.0301, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3658, "fifa_rank": 2417.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Unai Núñez": { 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"8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", 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"others": -0.0661, "total": 0.6512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.80733 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.103628 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.037821 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032095 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.024434 } ], "others_margin": -0.096578 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17604754865169525, "model_output": 0.176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2628 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 0.176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.262807 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023312 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010013 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008925 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008905 } ], "others_margin": -0.031555 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7547712326049805, "model_output": 6.7548, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 6.7548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011024 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010432 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008322 } ], "others_margin": 0.002436 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9960, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4689, "tackles": 0.5836, "tackles_won": 0.3443, "clearances": 1.5062, "aerial_won": 0.6486, "total_shots": 0.1753, "rating": 6.7548, "minutes": 26.61, "total_pass": 15.2012, "accurate_pass": 12.1381, "duels_won": 1.806, "total_long_balls": 3.1612, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7859, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4297, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7084, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3949, "possession_lost": 3.9069, "dispossessed": 0.2656, "duels_lost": 1.6141, "aerial_lost": 0.4577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1565, "challenges_lost": 0.3125, "fouls": 0.5783, "fouls_drawn": 0.3839, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7553, "total_progression": 11.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.2656, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1753 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4615, "tackles": 0.5836, "tackles_won": 0.3403, "clearances": 1.5062, "aerial_won": 0.6486, "total_shots": 0.1706, "rating": 6.7548, "minutes": 26.61, "total_pass": 15.2012, "accurate_pass": 12.1381, "duels_won": 1.806, "total_long_balls": 3.1612, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7859, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4297, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1932, 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"weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.0513, "totalShots": 0.2608, "expectedGoals": 0.0051, "expectedAssists": 0.0194, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0026 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2887357473373413, "model_output": 0.2887, "scale": "count 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"expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017593320459127426, "model_output": 0.0176, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0176, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559793 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.22507 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.193362 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.112016 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.070915 } ], "others_margin": -0.424362 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03899843990802765, "model_output": 0.039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 0.039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.306314 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.17211 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.129507 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085405 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083197 } ], "others_margin": -0.030438 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.01690134033560753, "model_output": 0.0169, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0169, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.546621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.412087 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.159375 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.07717 } ], "others_margin": -0.272906 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.026023345068097115, "model_output": 0.026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.026, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409965 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.225591 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.193717 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.137839 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103833 } ], "others_margin": -0.268372 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.06836678087711334, "model_output": 0.0684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1492 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 0.0684, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.611967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.303662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.219316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169263 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.047553 } ], "others_margin": -0.210335 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28745004534721375, "model_output": 0.2875, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1936 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": -0.0719, "total": 0.2875, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.335873 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.19358 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028099 } ], "others_margin": -0.071917 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691384315490723, "model_output": 6.6914, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.6914, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063374 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037652 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012674 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007846 } ], "others_margin": -0.026987 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2891, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.039, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0261, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "shots_on_target": 0.0684, "total_shots": 0.2878, "rating": 6.6914, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 10.5233, "accurate_pass": 8.126, "duels_won": 1.8634, "total_long_balls": 0.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1714, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9546, "crosses_total": 0.135, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7683, "possession_lost": 3.5092, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2979, "aerial_won": 0.4247, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.3822, "tackles_won": 0.8641, "tackles": 0.8641, "clearances": 0.7972, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4569, "fouls_drawn": 0.5746, "blocks": 0.2303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1115, "total_progression": 29.9963, "progressive_carries": 1.3232, "shots_off_target": 0.2193 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2891, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.0678, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.6914, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 10.5233, "accurate_pass": 8.126, "duels_won": 1.8634, "total_long_balls": 0.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1714, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9546, "crosses_total": 0.1337, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7683, "possession_lost": 3.5092, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2979, "aerial_won": 0.4247, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.3809, "tackles_won": 0.8572, "tackles": 0.8641, "clearances": 0.7972, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4549, "fouls_drawn": 0.5715, "blocks": 0.2303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1115, "total_progression": 29.9963, "progressive_carries": 1.3232, "shots_off_target": 0.2193 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0093, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2581, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8641, "after": 0.8572 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2786, "expected_assists": 0.017, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.0653, "total_shots": 0.2766, "rating": 6.6914, "minutes": 22.38, "total_pass": 10.1394, "accurate_pass": 7.8296, "duels_won": 1.7954, "total_long_balls": 0.3771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0922, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7374, "crosses_total": 0.1288, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1931, "possession_lost": 3.3812, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2141, "aerial_won": 0.4092, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.367, "tackles_won": 0.8259, "tackles": 0.8326, "clearances": 0.7681, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4383, "fouls_drawn": 0.5507, "blocks": 0.2219, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.925, "total_progression": 28.9021, "progressive_carries": 1.2749, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.315, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.38, "projection_minutes": 23.23, "minutes_scale": 0.9635, "appearance_probability": 0.315 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2786, "expected_assists": 0.017, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.0653, "total_shots": 0.2766, "rating": 6.6914, "minutes": 22.38, "total_pass": 10.1394, "accurate_pass": 7.8296, "duels_won": 1.7954, "total_long_balls": 0.3771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0922, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7374, "crosses_total": 0.1288, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1931, "possession_lost": 3.3812, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2141, "aerial_won": 0.4092, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.367, "tackles_won": 0.8259, "tackles": 0.8326, "clearances": 0.7681, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4383, "fouls_drawn": 0.5507, "blocks": 0.2219, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.925, "total_progression": 28.9021, "progressive_carries": 1.2749, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.315, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2786, "expected_assists": 0.017, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "assists": 0, 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0.4879, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1453 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0524 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 0.4879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.347992 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.145324 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052411 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.042912 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.026125 } ], "others_margin": -0.03232 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657656192779541, "model_output": 6.6577, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0336, "total": 6.6577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053939 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04926 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036532 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013335 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01185 } ], "others_margin": -0.033479 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0343, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1156, "total_shots": 0.487, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.91, "total_pass": 9.8054, "accurate_pass": 8.9644, "duels_won": 2.3909, "total_long_balls": 0.9981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7177, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.847, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1175, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0317, "possession_lost": 2.0612, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 2.2183, "aerial_won": 0.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6101, "tackles": 1.7809, "clearances": 0.8904, "total_contest": 0.6101, "won_contest": 0.3298, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3298, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 4.618, "total_progression": 11.3397, "progressive_carries": 0.388, "shots_off_target": 0.3714 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.0339, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1201, "total_shots": 0.4875, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.91, "total_pass": 9.8054, "accurate_pass": 8.9644, "duels_won": 2.3909, "total_long_balls": 0.9981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7177, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.847, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1175, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0317, "possession_lost": 2.0612, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 2.2183, "aerial_won": 0.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6092, "tackles": 1.7809, "clearances": 0.8904, "total_contest": 0.6101, "won_contest": 0.3298, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3262, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 4.618, "total_progression": 11.3397, "progressive_carries": 0.388, "shots_off_target": 0.3714 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2657, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 34.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.016, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 23.91, "minutes_scale": 1.4529, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.016, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.016, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0441, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "scorer_weight": 0.0509, "squad_weight_total": 1.4744, 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"others_margin": -0.239921 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5458202362060547, "model_output": 0.5458, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1379 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": -0.1311, "total": 0.5458, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464941 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13786 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 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"name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.4583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455243 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04389 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041186 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040881 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032586 } ], "others_margin": -0.010671 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676875591278076, "model_output": 6.6769, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 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"name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0528, "total": 6.6156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061803 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01382 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.008041 } ], "others_margin": -0.052744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1032, "goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "shots_on_target": 0.2372, "total_shots": 0.6831, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.3484, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 12.01, "total_pass": 3.0619, "accurate_pass": 2.7815, "duels_won": 0.2804, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1642, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.9525, "possession_lost": 0.8906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9966, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.6103, "won_contest": 0.2804, "ball_recovery": 0.388, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2275, "total_progression": 0.6802, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4459 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1548, "after": 0.1158 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.048, "after": 0.0359 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "scorer_weight": 0.1127, "squad_weight_total": 1.4744, "weight_share": 0.0765, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.6148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6148, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1869 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.8905, "weight_share": 0.0323, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2107, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2107, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.158, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Gabriel Moscardo": { "player_id": 1485309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 185, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0441, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421071, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.004, 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"press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 0.4879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.347992 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.145324 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052411 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.042912 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.026125 } ], "others_margin": -0.03232 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657656192779541, "model_output": 6.6577, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0343, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1156, "total_shots": 0.487, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.91, "total_pass": 9.8054, "accurate_pass": 8.9644, "duels_won": 2.3909, "total_long_balls": 0.9981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7177, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.847, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1175, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0317, "possession_lost": 2.0612, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 2.2183, "aerial_won": 0.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6101, "tackles": 1.7809, "clearances": 0.8904, 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6.4076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.847, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1175, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0317, "possession_lost": 2.0612, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 2.2183, "aerial_won": 0.2804, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6092, "tackles": 1.7809, "clearances": 0.8904, "total_contest": 0.6101, "won_contest": 0.3298, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3262, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 4.618, "total_progression": 11.3397, "progressive_carries": 0.388, "shots_off_target": 0.3714 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2657, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 34.7 expected minutes 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0.016, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 23.91, "minutes_scale": 1.4529, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.016, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, 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"accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, "total_contest": 0.8864, "won_contest": 0.4792, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 6.7097, "total_progression": 16.476, "progressive_carries": 0.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.5396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2932, "possession_lost": 2.9948, "dispossessed": 0.9399, "duels_lost": 3.2231, "aerial_won": 0.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.2804, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8851, "tackles": 2.5876, "clearances": 1.2937, 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"weight_share": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.6148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6148, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1869 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.347, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "total_shots": 0.7141, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 14.2467, "accurate_pass": 13.0248, "duels_won": 3.4739, "total_long_balls": 1.4502, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0428, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4954, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9368, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 1.1163, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.015, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "provider_weight": 0.019, "squad_weight_total": 0.8905, "weight_share": 0.0213, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2107, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2107, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.158, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Javi Puado": { "player_id": 891511, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 7000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, 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"contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0528, "total": 6.6156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061803 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01382 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.008041 } ], "others_margin": -0.052744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1032, "goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "shots_on_target": 0.2372, "total_shots": 0.6831, "expected_assists": 0.032, "key_pass": 0.3484, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 12.01, "total_pass": 3.0619, "accurate_pass": 2.7815, "duels_won": 0.2804, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1642, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.9525, "possession_lost": 0.8906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9966, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.6103, "won_contest": 0.2804, "ball_recovery": 0.388, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2275, "total_progression": 0.6802, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4459 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1548, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1085, xG scale 1.3171, xA scale 1.3171, team xA 0.96 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.46, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1085, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7277, "team_expected_assists": 0.9585, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6565, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3171, "xa_scale": 1.3171, "opponent_lambda": 1.312, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1548, "after": 0.1158 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.048, "after": 0.0359 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "scorer_weight": 0.1127, "squad_weight_total": 1.4744, "weight_share": 0.0765, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.6148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6148, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1869 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3558, "total_shots": 1.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6156, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 4.5929, "accurate_pass": 4.1723, "duels_won": 0.4206, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9287, "possession_lost": 1.3359, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9949, "aerial_lost": 1.0565, "total_contest": 0.9154, "won_contest": 0.4206, "ball_recovery": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9154, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3413, "total_progression": 1.0203, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6689, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.246, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1048, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 0.9736, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.8905, "weight_share": 0.0323, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2107, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2107, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.158, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.46, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 341, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.4102, "xg_multiplier": 1.0879, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is slightly favored against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€22M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.410 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0844, "xg_multiplier": 0.9529, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (ST) is evenly matched against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0978, "xg_multiplier": 0.9135, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Martín", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2407, "xg_multiplier": 0.9657, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Martín (ST) is evenly matched against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.241 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.262, "xg_contribution": 0.4418, "xg_multiplier": 1.0916, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738 }, { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is slightly favored against Jeanuël Belocian and Alvaro Mantilla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.442 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1274, "xg_multiplier": 0.8937, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jeanuël Belocian and Alvaro Mantilla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.1515, "xg_multiplier": 0.9687, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (LM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.152 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Roger Hinojo", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Julen Agirrezabala" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0079, "xg_multiplier": 0.9384, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 }, { "player": "Julen Agirrezabala", "role": "GK", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Hinojo (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Ramón and Julen Agirrezabala in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.008 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Omar El Hilali", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 15900000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.589, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Julen Agirrezabala" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.346, "xg_contribution": 0.0949, "xg_multiplier": 1.0679, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 }, { "player": "Julen Agirrezabala", "role": "GK", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar El Hilali (RWB) is slightly favored against Jorge Salinas and Julen Agirrezabala in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.1068, "xg_multiplier": 0.9973, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (CM) is evenly matched against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.09, "xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (CM) is evenly matched against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.425, "away_midfield_power": 0.469, "home_creative_power": 0.382, "away_creative_power": 0.492, "home_defensive_power": 0.382, "away_defensive_power": 0.401, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.475, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Edu Expósito", "Javier Hernández", "Pol Lozano" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Matteo Prati vs Javier Hernández", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.312, "away_lambda": 1.46, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Andrés Martín": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández", "Roger Hinojo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Roger Hinojo", "Omar El Hilali" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito", "Pol Lozano", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Canales", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Canales", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roger Hinojo": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Julen Agirrezabala" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Julen Agirrezabala" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Fortuño": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Matteo Prati vs Javier Hernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.047, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.104, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.988, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9855, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4908, "away_avg_quality": 0.4923, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0015, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0328, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0237, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0443, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0009, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8331, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0037 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.993, "result": 0.9967 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9867 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1347 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9683, "result": 1.0987 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.1104 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.988, "result": 1.0971 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.047, "result": 1.1441 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1441, "result": 1.1441, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1441, "result": 1.1441 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1441 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1592, "result": 1.3032 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.3032 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3032, "result": 1.303, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.303, "result": 1.3123, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.312 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.312 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.312, "result": 1.312, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.312 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0203, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1027 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.014, "result": 1.1182 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.1293 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1293 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0883, "result": 1.2291 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.993, "result": 1.2204 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9855, "result": 1.2027 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.104, "result": 1.3067 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3067, "result": 1.3067, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3067, "result": 1.3067 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3067 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1632, "result": 1.4702 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.4702 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4702, "result": 1.47, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.47, "result": 1.4596, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.46 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.46 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.46, "result": 1.46, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.46 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1592, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1632, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.312, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.46, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3032, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4702, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.312, "final_away_lambda": 1.46 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9683, "attack_index": 1.024, "defense_concede_index": 0.901, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.57, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0883, "attack_index": 0.871, "defense_concede_index": 1.415, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.34, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.17, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Racing Club vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.303, Away 1.470). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.312, Away 1.460 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.312, "away_lambda": 1.46, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.303, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.47 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:32:00Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }