{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1045, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1045, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.057, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2269, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1074 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1045 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.099 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0974 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0612 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0573, "0-1": 0.057, "0-2": 0.0293, "0-3": 0.0099, "0-4": 0.0025, "0-5": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1045, "1-1": 0.1074, "1-2": 0.0543, "1-3": 0.0184, "1-4": 0.0047, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0974, "2-1": 0.099, "2-2": 0.0503, "2-3": 0.017, "2-4": 0.0043, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0602, "3-1": 0.0612, "3-2": 0.0311, "3-3": 0.0105, "3-4": 0.0027, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0279, "4-1": 0.0284, "4-2": 0.0144, "4-3": 0.0049, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0104, "5-1": 0.0105, "5-2": 0.0053, "5-3": 0.0018, "6-0": 0.0032, "6-1": 0.0032, "6-2": 0.0017, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0008, "7-1": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5693, "draw": 0.2269, "away_win": 0.2038 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5471, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4529, "btts_yes": 0.5387, "btts_no": 0.4613, "home_clean_sheet": 0.362, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1566 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.16, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.03 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.98, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 7.01 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Arsenal 7W-2D-1L vs Everton over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kai Havertz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Declan Rice vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.854, "away_lambda": 1.016, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 7, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0429, "away_multiplier": 0.9571 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1074, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5693, "draw": 0.2269, "away_win": 0.2038 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5693, "fair_spread": 0.838, "fair_total": 2.87, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.854, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.016, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5471, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5387, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.362, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1566, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kai Havertz (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.5261, "probability": 0.4091, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.3553, "probability": 0.299, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.2645, "probability": 0.2324, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Everton)", "estimate": 0.1484, "probability": 0.1379, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.87, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 943, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.7, "possession_away_pct": 49.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5693, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.84 goals and fair total 2.87.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Everton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Kai Havertz against Vitaliy Mykolenko, Jarrad Branthwaite in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Kai Havertz; bench watchlist: Bruno Guimarães, Martín Zubimendi, Viktor Gyökeres.", "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Hayden Hackney, Brennan Johnson, Tyrique George.", "Assist usage should flow through Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Everton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Everton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Arsenal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kai Havertz": { "player_id": 836705, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 193, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5261, "goal_rate": 0.3657, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8381, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 7.8707, "dispossessed": 0.5026, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0695, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.491, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0622, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaliy Mykolenko, Jarrad Branthwaite", "opponent_faced": "Vitaliy Mykolenko, Jarrad Branthwaite", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4091, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0597, "finishing_factor": 0.9094, "creation_factor": 1.2231, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363889, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.329, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1423, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7791, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2698, "expected_assists": 0.2681, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3989, "expected_assists": 0.1832, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3932, "expected_assists": 0.3301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 635, "combined_rank_score": 324.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 143.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 505.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8381, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kingsley Coman", "ranking": 630 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Torres", "ranking": 631 }, { "player_name": "Achraf Hakimi", "ranking": 632 }, { "player_name": "Bong-jin Choi", "ranking": 633 }, { "player_name": "João Félix", "ranking": 634 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Makhmud Makhamadzhonov", "ranking": 636 }, { "player_name": "Ji-hyun Kim", "ranking": 637 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Sepúlveda", "ranking": 638 }, { "player_name": "Ratinho", "ranking": 639 }, { "player_name": "Trincão", "ranking": 640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 19, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 19, "data_confidence": 0.77, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1935 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1097 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0989 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.098 } ], "others": 0.3957, "total": 1.6862, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.250284 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.118445 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105677 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086608 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.078996 } ], "others_margin": 0.267426 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9246745109558105, "model_output": 6.9247, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": 0.0423, "total": 6.9247, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062183 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.055216 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032751 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.018087 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01801 } ], "others_margin": 0.04234 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1228, "goals": 0.216, "goal_rate": 0.216, "shots_on_target": 0.5356, "total_shots": 1.9822, "expected_assists": 0.1334, "key_pass": 1.7087, "rating": 6.9247, "minutes": 70.95, "total_pass": 25.8189, "accurate_pass": 20.7778, "duels_won": 3.6164, "total_long_balls": 1.0885, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5674, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6799, "crosses_total": 4.1335, "crosses_accurate": 1.3705, "touches": 42.5819, "possession_lost": 12.4577, "dispossessed": 0.9383, "duels_lost": 4.4284, "aerial_lost": 0.4013, "total_contest": 2.9551, "won_contest": 1.5792, "ball_recovery": 2.47, "challenges_lost": 1.1146, "fouls": 0.5982, "fouls_drawn": 0.4738, "assists": 0.0376, "assist_rate": 0.0376, "interceptions": 0.2436, 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"contribution": 0.034 } ], "others": 0.1248, "total": 7.3409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.125168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105493 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.051488 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.043805 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034003 } ], "others_margin": 0.124887 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0160, quality 0.888)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "assists": 0.1894, "assist_rate": 0.1894, "expected_goals": 0.169, "goals": 0.1579, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "shots_on_target": 0.5262, "total_shots": 1.3413, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2763, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 0.0593, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 0.3191, "tackles_won": 0.4598, "tackles": 0.7266, "clearances": 0.3582, "total_contest": 1.4228, "won_contest": 0.4414, "challenges_lost": 0.295, "fouls": 0.556, "fouls_drawn": 0.7867, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3324, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1061, "ball_carries": 27.1366, "total_progression": 60.9932, "progressive_carries": 1.7253, "shots_off_target": 0.815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 88000000, "quality_factor": 0.8879, "boost_factor": 1.016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "assists": 0.1876, "assist_rate": 0.1876, "expected_goals": 0.169, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.5265, "total_shots": 1.35, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2803, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 0.0593, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles_won": 0.4717, "tackles": 0.7266, "clearances": 0.3582, "total_contest": 1.4228, "won_contest": 0.4414, "challenges_lost": 0.295, "fouls": 0.5506, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3324, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1061, "ball_carries": 27.1366, "total_progression": 60.9932, "progressive_carries": 1.7253, "shots_off_target": 0.815 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9036, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4598, "after": 0.4717 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3413, "after": 1.35 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.556, "after": 0.5506 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "assists": 0.1876, "assist_rate": 0.1876, "expected_goals": 0.169, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.5265, "total_shots": 1.35, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2803, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 0.0593, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 0.316, 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"opponent_faced": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.616, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2001, "skill_edge": 0.1361, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.8879, "defender_skill": 0.5854, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "market_value": 10900000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5854 } ], "xg_override": 0.2028 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0593, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.35, "after": 1.6201 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.815, "after": 0.9781 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5265, "after": 0.6319 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2645, "assist_rate": 0.1876, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2621, "goal_rate": 0.1942, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6319, "total_shots": 1.6201, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2803, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles_won": 0.4717, "tackles": 0.7266, "clearances": 0.3582, "total_contest": 1.4228, "won_contest": 0.4414, "challenges_lost": 0.295, "fouls": 0.5506, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3324, "big_chances_missed": 0.1717, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 27.1366, "total_progression": 60.9932, "progressive_carries": 1.7253, "shots_off_target": 0.9781, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2001, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.616, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "opponent_faced": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.966, "creation_factor": 0.9332 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2028, "after": 0.2621 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2046, "after": 0.2645 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2645, "assist_rate": 0.1876, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2621, "goal_rate": 0.1942, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6319, "total_shots": 1.6201, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2803, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles_won": 0.4717, "tackles": 0.7266, "clearances": 0.3582, "total_contest": 1.4228, "won_contest": 0.4414, "challenges_lost": 0.295, "fouls": 0.5506, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "blocks": 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"fifa_rank": 95.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8764, "expected_assists": 0.2645, "assist_rate": 0.1876, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2621, "goal_rate": 0.1942, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6319, "total_shots": 1.6201, "rating": 7.3409, "minutes": 81.32, "total_pass": 54.0891, "accurate_pass": 48.2952, "duels_won": 2.0141, "total_long_balls": 3.5367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6809, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7057, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.6786, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.5895, "crosses_total": 1.2803, "crosses_accurate": 0.1849, "touches": 65.7414, "possession_lost": 11.2679, "dispossessed": 0.7721, "duels_lost": 2.9882, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 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"model_output": 1.3083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0873 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0228 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 1.3083, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167702 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087276 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.034685 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.026835 }, { "name": "goalAssist", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7783, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0699, "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "shots_on_target": 0.4327, "total_shots": 1.3244, "rating": 6.799, "minutes": 69.89, "total_pass": 24.3334, "accurate_pass": 20.4721, "duels_won": 3.5143, "total_long_balls": 1.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6736, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1288, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3434, "crosses_total": 0.2238, "crosses_accurate": 0.067, "touches": 35.2545, "possession_lost": 6.9914, "dispossessed": 1.3234, "duels_lost": 3.6143, "aerial_won": 0.4691, "aerial_lost": 1.0753, "interceptions": 0.2886, "tackles_won": 0.214, "tackles": 0.3204, "clearances": 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"crosses_total": 0.223, "crosses_accurate": 0.067, "touches": 35.2545, "possession_lost": 6.9914, "dispossessed": 1.3234, "duels_lost": 3.6143, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0753, "interceptions": 0.2876, "tackles_won": 0.2132, "tackles": 0.3204, "clearances": 0.2163, "total_contest": 1.2964, "won_contest": 0.8533, "challenges_lost": 0.3441, "fouls": 0.4736, "fouls_drawn": 1.8766, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.0601, "big_chances_missed": 0.0075, "xgot": 0.3016, "ball_carries": 10.8313, "total_progression": 9.8337, "progressive_carries": 0.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9586, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0751, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Merlin Röhl", "opponent_faced": "Merlin Röhl", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Merlin Röhl", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0751, "skill_edge": 0.1031, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.876, "defender_skill": 0.6469, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Merlin Röhl", "market_value": 18400000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6469 } ], "xg_override": 0.1162 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4691, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3238, "after": 1.4232 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8916, "after": 0.9586 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4312, "after": 0.4636 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2805, "after": 0.3016 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1081, "after": 0.1162 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1075, "after": 0.1156 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7783, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1156, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4636, "total_shots": 1.4232, "rating": 6.799, "minutes": 69.89, "total_pass": 24.3334, "accurate_pass": 20.4721, "duels_won": 3.5143, "total_long_balls": 1.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6736, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1288, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3434, "crosses_total": 0.223, "crosses_accurate": 0.067, "touches": 35.2545, "possession_lost": 6.9914, "dispossessed": 1.3234, "duels_lost": 3.6143, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0753, "interceptions": 0.2876, "tackles_won": 0.2132, "tackles": 0.3204, "clearances": 0.2163, 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lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7783, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1502, "goal_rate": 0.1156, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4636, "total_shots": 1.4232, "rating": 6.799, "minutes": 69.89, "total_pass": 24.3334, "accurate_pass": 20.4721, "duels_won": 3.5143, "total_long_balls": 1.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6736, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1288, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3434, "crosses_total": 0.223, "crosses_accurate": 0.067, "touches": 35.2545, "possession_lost": 6.9914, "dispossessed": 1.3234, "duels_lost": 3.6143, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0753, "interceptions": 0.2876, "tackles_won": 0.2132, "tackles": 0.3204, "clearances": 0.2163, "total_contest": 1.2964, "won_contest": 0.8533, "challenges_lost": 0.3441, "fouls": 0.4736, "fouls_drawn": 1.8766, 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.808, "expected_assists": 0.1927, "assists": 0.2122, "assist_rate": 0.2122, "expected_goals": 0.0595, "goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.1958, "total_shots": 0.7608, "rating": 7.3416, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 71.6011, "accurate_pass": 63.9642, "duels_won": 3.7752, "total_long_balls": 5.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8671, "total_own_half_passes": 27.5977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6085, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.0034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38.3557, "crosses_total": 3.6522, "crosses_accurate": 0.8726, "touches": 86.5553, "possession_lost": 12.264, "dispossessed": 0.6916, "duels_lost": 3.1628, "aerial_won": 1.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.9089, "interceptions": 1.0603, "tackles_won": 0.8929, "tackles": 1.5893, "clearances": 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6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029523 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015585 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012313 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012073 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010658 } ], "others_margin": -0.035586 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.695, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9445, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7555, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 2.4845, "challenges_lost": 0.4106, "fouls": 0.6229, "fouls_drawn": 0.1715, "blocks": 0.2241, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0.1298, "assist_rate": 0.1298, "expected_goals": 0.1551, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.3457, "big_chances_created": 0.0683, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 10.3344, "total_progression": 46.7699, "progressive_carries": 1.2061, "key_pass": 0.8001, "shots_off_target": 0.4098 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 2.4845, "challenges_lost": 0.4106, "fouls": 0.6213, "fouls_drawn": 0.1748, "blocks": 0.2241, "goals": 0.1307, "goal_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0.1386, "assist_rate": 0.1386, "expected_goals": 0.1551, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.342, "big_chances_created": 0.0683, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 10.3344, "total_progression": 46.7699, "progressive_carries": 1.2061, "key_pass": 0.8001, "shots_off_target": 0.4098 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8983, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1298, "after": 0.1386 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9445, "after": 0.9394 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 2.4845, "challenges_lost": 0.4106, "fouls": 0.6213, "fouls_drawn": 0.1748, "blocks": 0.2241, "goals": 0.1307, "goal_rate": 0.1307, "assists": 0.1386, "assist_rate": 0.1386, "expected_goals": 0.1551, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.342, "big_chances_created": 0.0683, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 10.3344, "total_progression": 46.7699, "progressive_carries": 1.2061, "key_pass": 0.8001, "shots_off_target": 0.4098 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 2.4845, "challenges_lost": 0.4106, "fouls": 0.6213, "fouls_drawn": 0.1748, "blocks": 0.2241, "goal_rate": 0.1307, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1551, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.342, "big_chances_created": 0.0683, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 10.3344, "total_progression": 46.7699, "progressive_carries": 1.2061, "key_pass": 0.8001, "shots_off_target": 0.4098, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 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"creation_factor": 1.1549 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1551, "after": 0.2005 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1133, "after": 0.1464 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 2.4845, "challenges_lost": 0.4106, "fouls": 0.6213, "fouls_drawn": 0.1748, "blocks": 0.2241, "goal_rate": 0.1307, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2005, "expected_assists": 0.1464, 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"global_player_rank": 360, "fifa_rank": 384.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1078, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7376, "crosses_total": 0.8253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1474, "touches": 47.0366, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 0.5021, "duels_lost": 3.0618, "aerial_lost": 1.2632, "total_contest": 0.7834, "won_contest": 0.3818, "ball_recovery": 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1817, "goal_rate": 0.1307, "scorer_weight": 0.1766, "squad_weight_total": 1.7964, "weight_share": 0.0983, "finishing_factor": 0.881, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.4784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4784, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.4878, "tackles_won": 0.9394, "clearances": 2.0812, "aerial_won": 1.2362, "total_shots": 0.7575, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 31.5044, "accurate_pass": 27.1221, "duels_won": 3.447, "total_long_balls": 1.0608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3931, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.402562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112909 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072411 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.065888 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.038868 } ], "others_margin": 0.075781 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7721182703971863, "model_output": 0.7721, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1795 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 0.7721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.179517 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058841 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023252 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.018239 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016379 } ], "others_margin": 0.000951 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.990055084228516, "model_output": 6.9901, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.4709, "tackles_won": 0.7856, "clearances": 5.7639, "aerial_won": 2.798, "total_shots": 0.7839, "rating": 6.9901, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.612, "accurate_pass": 50.9599, "duels_won": 5.3361, "total_long_balls": 5.2189, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8315, "total_own_half_passes": 32.73, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.9344, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0257, "crosses_total": 0.1, "crosses_accurate": 0.0082, "touches": 73.1301, "possession_lost": 8.1114, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.3251, 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0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0167, "tackles": 1.4709, "tackles_won": 0.7856, "clearances": 5.7639, "aerial_won": 2.798, "total_shots": 0.7839, "rating": 6.9901, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.612, "accurate_pass": 50.9599, "duels_won": 5.3361, "total_long_balls": 5.2189, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8315, "total_own_half_passes": 32.73, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.9344, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0257, "crosses_total": 0.1, "crosses_accurate": 0.0082, "touches": 73.1301, "possession_lost": 8.1114, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.3251, "aerial_lost": 2.3409, "total_contest": 0.0687, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.7931, "challenges_lost": 0.4537, "fouls": 0.7932, "fouls_drawn": 1.2345, "blocks": 1.2116, "goal_rate": 0.0067, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0258, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1871, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.259, "big_chances_created": 0.0284, "xgot": 0.0825, "ball_carries": 18.7773, "total_progression": 57.5032, "progressive_carries": 0.7109, "key_pass": 0.3222, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8469 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1448, "after": 0.1871 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0511 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.1169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.3743, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024925 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012569 } ], "others_margin": -0.008732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8321380615234375, "model_output": 6.8321, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 6.8321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.049053 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.029666 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022508 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010768 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010711 } ], "others_margin": 0.007022 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average 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0.3272, "key_pass": 0.1541, "shots_off_target": 0.3755, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1719, "tackles": 1.3697, "tackles_won": 0.7678, "clearances": 3.8459, "aerial_won": 1.85, "total_shots": 0.3784, "rating": 6.8321, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 61.0327, "accurate_pass": 58.8554, "duels_won": 4.7831, "total_long_balls": 2.2469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7252, "total_own_half_passes": 41.9233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.0482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1093, 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"trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-18", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.1849, "aerialWon": 2.5428, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2449, "totalTackle": 1.114, "defensive_actions": 1.6433 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.33567923307418823, "model_output": 0.3357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], 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"name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7423 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0636, "total": 0.5063, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.769415 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.035974 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02876 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.026445 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.026218 } ], "others_margin": -0.118085 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3178178668022156, "model_output": 0.3178, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1002 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3151 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0639 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0633 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 1.8419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.949803 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.21339 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03861 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036802 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035145 } ], "others_margin": 0.005507 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7867105603218079, "model_output": 0.7867, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8372 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1641 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0273 } ], "others": -0.0443, "total": 0.7867, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.927375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.261932 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06193 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.059105 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033378 } ], "others_margin": -0.054681 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15974901616573334, "model_output": 0.1597, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1957 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 0.1597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195732 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088442 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014896 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012917 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011589 } ], "others_margin": 0.008385 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.883539199829102, "model_output": 6.8835, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0188, "total": 6.8835, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.199792 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079569 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021857 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.013619 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.012342 } ], "others_margin": -0.019768 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.653026580810547, "model_output": 6.653, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": 6.653, 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"tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 39, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1946 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 0.4455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021662 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018677 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017604 } ], "others_margin": -0.054557 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725793361663818, "model_output": 6.7258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0981 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.7258, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098074 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021538 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015028 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.01026 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007738 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0636, "total": 0.6068, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.422689 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.039599 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.019469 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018682 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.018392 } ], "others_margin": -0.063581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.076498031616211, "model_output": 7.0765, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0819 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0711 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 7.0765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.17772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081884 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030528 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027759 } ], "others_margin": -0.004744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6105, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0886, "goal_rate": 0.0886, "shots_on_target": 0.2145, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 28.48, "total_pass": 18.5591, "accurate_pass": 16.7759, "duels_won": 3.4231, "total_long_balls": 1.6386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8446, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3644, "crosses_total": 1.0499, "crosses_accurate": 0.168, "touches": 27.9287, "possession_lost": 4.8015, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 2.2175, "aerial_won": 0.7796, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.2325, "tackles_won": 0.4005, "tackles": 0.5685, "clearances": 0.2735, "total_contest": 0.504, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.4415, "fouls_drawn": 1.9071, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3748, "ball_carries": 8.8092, "total_progression": 28.595, "progressive_carries": 0.7094, "shots_off_target": 0.401 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6105, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0683, "assist_rate": 0.0683, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.2143, "total_shots": 0.6148, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 28.48, "total_pass": 18.5591, "accurate_pass": 16.7759, "duels_won": 3.4231, "total_long_balls": 1.6386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8446, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3644, "crosses_total": 1.0487, "crosses_accurate": 0.168, "touches": 27.9287, "possession_lost": 4.8015, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 2.2175, "aerial_won": 0.7796, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.2322, "tackles_won": 0.4001, "tackles": 0.5685, "clearances": 0.2735, "total_contest": 0.504, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.441, "fouls_drawn": 1.905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3748, "ball_carries": 8.8092, "total_progression": 28.595, "progressive_carries": 0.7094, "shots_off_target": 0.401 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3164, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 21.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goals": 0.0673, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.67, "projection_minutes": 28.48, "minutes_scale": 0.7609, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goals": 0.0673, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 100, "fifa_rank": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0378, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "scorer_weight": 0.0485, "squad_weight_total": 1.7964, "weight_share": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.728, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.4784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4784, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 116, "combined_rank_score": 110.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 125.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6451, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jérémy Doku", "ranking": 111 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Lamas", "ranking": 112 }, { "player_name": "Jun-ho Son", "ranking": 113 }, { "player_name": "Luka Modrić", "ranking": 114 }, { "player_name": "Jean Meneses", "ranking": 115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 0.3849, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054925 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.038556 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037996 } ], "others_margin": 0.061203 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645051956176758, "model_output": 6.6451, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.6451, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010926 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00998 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009672 } ], "others_margin": -0.025917 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.094, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2396, "total_shots": 0.5968, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3894, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8895, "accurate_pass": 3.7014, "duels_won": 0.8848, "total_long_balls": 0.1438, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1438, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9717, "crosses_total": 0.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0883, "touches": 9.3176, "possession_lost": 3.2799, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.3447, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.554, "won_contest": 0.0883, "ball_recovery": 1.0567, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 0.9648, "fouls_drawn": 0.3292, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1438, "tackles": 0.2188, "clearances": 0.1382, "blocks": 0.1099, "big_chances_created": 0.3663, "big_chances_missed": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.0918, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0081, "total_progression": 15.9594, "progressive_carries": 0.9119, "shots_off_target": 0.3571 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1654, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1096, "after": 0.0898 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0385 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0837, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.135, "scorer_weight": 0.1041, "squad_weight_total": 1.7964, "weight_share": 0.0579, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.4784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4784, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0837, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0374, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0308, "squad_weight_total": 1.3507, "weight_share": 0.0228, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2675, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2675, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2468, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Bruno Guimarães": { "player_id": 866469, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 182, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0378, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363889, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 7.0765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.17772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081884 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030528 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027759 } ], "others_margin": -0.004744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6105, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0886, "goal_rate": 0.0886, "shots_on_target": 0.2145, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 28.48, "total_pass": 18.5591, "accurate_pass": 16.7759, "duels_won": 3.4231, "total_long_balls": 1.6386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8446, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3644, "crosses_total": 1.0499, "crosses_accurate": 0.168, "touches": 27.9287, "possession_lost": 4.8015, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 2.2175, "aerial_won": 0.7796, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.2325, "tackles_won": 0.4005, "tackles": 0.5685, "clearances": 0.2735, "total_contest": 0.504, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.4415, "fouls_drawn": 1.9071, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3748, "ball_carries": 8.8092, "total_progression": 28.595, "progressive_carries": 0.7094, "shots_off_target": 0.401 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6105, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0683, "assist_rate": 0.0683, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.2143, "total_shots": 0.6148, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 28.48, "total_pass": 18.5591, "accurate_pass": 16.7759, "duels_won": 3.4231, "total_long_balls": 1.6386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8446, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4115, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3644, "crosses_total": 1.0487, "crosses_accurate": 0.168, "touches": 27.9287, "possession_lost": 4.8015, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 2.2175, "aerial_won": 0.7796, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.2322, "tackles_won": 0.4001, "tackles": 0.5685, "clearances": 0.2735, "total_contest": 0.504, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.441, "fouls_drawn": 1.905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3748, "ball_carries": 8.8092, "total_progression": 28.595, "progressive_carries": 0.7094, "shots_off_target": 0.401 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3164, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 21.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goals": 0.0673, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.67, "projection_minutes": 28.48, "minutes_scale": 0.7609, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goals": 0.0673, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2852, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 100, "fifa_rank": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8861, "crosses_total": 0.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.1278, "touches": 21.2505, "possession_lost": 3.6534, "dispossessed": 0.9341, "duels_lost": 1.6873, "aerial_won": 0.5932, "aerial_lost": 0.2735, "interceptions": 0.1767, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "tackles": 0.4326, "clearances": 0.2081, "total_contest": 0.3835, "won_contest": 0.1278, "challenges_lost": 0.2325, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.4495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2683, "ball_carries": 6.7028, "total_progression": 21.7575, "progressive_carries": 0.5398, "shots_off_target": 0.3051, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.67, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0378, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0139, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "scorer_weight": 0.0485, "squad_weight_total": 1.7964, "weight_share": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.728, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.4784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4784, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4645, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0673, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1631, "total_shots": 0.4682, "rating": 7.0765, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 14.1213, "accurate_pass": 12.7645, "duels_won": 2.6046, "total_long_balls": 1.2468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6426, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8784, "total_opp_half_passes": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1379 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.1096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.55003 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270533 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.056416 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.036877 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.03545 } ], "others_margin": -0.140822 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.445474773645401, "model_output": 0.4455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1946 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 0.4455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021662 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018677 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017604 } ], "others_margin": -0.054557 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725793361663818, "model_output": 6.7258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0981 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.7258, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098074 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021538 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015028 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.01026 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007738 } ], "others_margin": -0.028196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2518, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1109, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 21.79, "total_pass": 17.0055, "accurate_pass": 14.1613, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.633, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6255, "tackles_won": 0.5139, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, 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"total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6247, "tackles_won": 0.5143, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 0.0744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2398, "total_progression": 10.3227, "progressive_carries": 0.0787, "shots_off_target": 0.3398 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2421, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2186, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "assists": 0.0377, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "shots_on_target": 0.0961, "total_shots": 0.3912, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.295, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.92, "projection_minutes": 21.79, "minutes_scale": 0.8683, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2186, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "assists": 0.0377, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "shots_on_target": 0.0961, "total_shots": 0.3912, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.295, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2186, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0961, "total_shots": 0.3912, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.295, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2186, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0961, "total_shots": 0.3912, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.295, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2186, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0961, "total_shots": 0.3912, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 0.3849, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054925 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.038556 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037996 } ], "others_margin": 0.061203 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645051956176758, "model_output": 6.6451, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.094, "goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.1158, "shots_on_target": 0.2396, "total_shots": 0.5968, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3894, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8895, "accurate_pass": 3.7014, "duels_won": 0.8848, "total_long_balls": 0.1438, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1438, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9717, "crosses_total": 0.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0883, "touches": 9.3176, "possession_lost": 3.2799, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.3447, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.554, "won_contest": 0.0883, "ball_recovery": 1.0567, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 0.9648, "fouls_drawn": 0.3292, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1438, "tackles": 0.2188, "clearances": 0.1382, "blocks": 0.1099, "big_chances_created": 0.3663, "big_chances_missed": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.0918, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0081, "total_progression": 15.9594, "progressive_carries": 0.9119, "shots_off_target": 0.3571 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1654, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goals": 0.135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4345, xG scale 1.2924, xA scale 1.2924, team xA 1.35 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.6955, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6451, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6984, "accurate_pass": 4.3138, "duels_won": 1.0312, "total_long_balls": 0.1676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1676, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4633, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8591, "possession_lost": 3.8225, "dispossessed": 0.3462, "duels_lost": 2.7326, "aerial_lost": 0.7207, "total_contest": 0.6457, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2315, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1244, "fouls_drawn": 0.3837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1676, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.854, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4345, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0469, "team_expected_assists": 1.3531, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7298, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2924, "xa_scale": 1.2924, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1096, "after": 0.0898 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0385 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0877, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5058, "total_progression": 18.5997, "progressive_carries": 1.0628, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.847, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1591, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { 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4.2855, "total_progression": 12.1265, "progressive_carries": 0.7242, "shots_off_target": 1.3038 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3662, "goals": 0.4328, "goal_rate": 0.4328, "shots_on_target": 1.0873, "total_shots": 2.3252, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.5115, "rating": 6.8505, "minutes": 84.44, "total_pass": 13.482, "accurate_pass": 9.4164, "duels_won": 6.4548, "total_long_balls": 0.1105, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0097, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.283, "crosses_total": 0.2071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0761, "touches": 27.2067, "possession_lost": 9.4882, "dispossessed": 0.7993, "duels_lost": 7.9639, "aerial_lost": 5.6507, "total_contest": 0.8546, "won_contest": 0.3834, "ball_recovery": 1.3852, "challenges_lost": 0.3288, "fouls": 0.8741, "fouls_drawn": 1.0476, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2887, "tackles_won": 0.1159, "tackles": 0.1208, "clearances": 0.8686, "blocks": 0.2433, "big_chances_created": 0.0481, "big_chances_missed": 1.3012, "xgot": 0.4356, "offsides": 0.3727, "ball_carries": 4.2855, "total_progression": 12.1265, "progressive_carries": 0.7242, "shots_off_target": 1.2378, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9494, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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0.037871 } ], "others_margin": 0.178714 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.090134382247925, "model_output": 2.0901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1703 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0419 } ], "others": 0.1959, "total": 2.0901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.671656 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.170345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049346 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047891 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041908 } ], "others_margin": 0.19591 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.159195423126221, "model_output": 7.1592, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0794 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0766, "total": 7.1592, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.118704 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079407 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026899 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025127 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.023593 } ], "others_margin": 0.076599 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9271, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assists": 0.1321, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goals": 0.2351, "goal_rate": 0.2351, "shots_on_target": 0.8108, "total_shots": 2.1117, "rating": 7.1592, "minutes": 88.91, "total_pass": 38.6316, "accurate_pass": 32.9338, "duels_won": 5.0292, "total_long_balls": 2.7783, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1024, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0091, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9247, "crosses_total": 3.601, "crosses_accurate": 0.7581, "touches": 58.189, "possession_lost": 13.095, "dispossessed": 2.0046, "duels_lost": 4.9066, "aerial_won": 0.3465, "aerial_lost": 0.5305, "interceptions": 0.3355, "tackles_won": 0.7884, "tackles": 1.6389, "clearances": 0.5943, "total_contest": 2.0357, "won_contest": 1.0389, "challenges_lost": 0.8532, "fouls": 0.5286, "fouls_drawn": 2.0119, "blocks": 0.3249, "big_chances_created": 0.5712, "big_chances_missed": 0.2619, "xgot": 0.2069, "ball_carries": 19.2603, "total_progression": 93.9498, "progressive_carries": 3.2781, "shots_off_target": 1.3009 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9271, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assists": 0.1308, "assist_rate": 0.1308, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goals": 0.2377, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "shots_on_target": 0.8127, "total_shots": 2.1154, "rating": 7.1592, "minutes": 88.91, "total_pass": 38.6316, "accurate_pass": 32.9338, "duels_won": 5.0292, "total_long_balls": 2.7783, "accurate_long_balls": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 6.7876, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028257 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017587 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00916 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008136 } ], "others_margin": -0.027839 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.615)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7039, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0534, "goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0656, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.7914, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 83.85, "total_pass": 21.3783, "accurate_pass": 17.4012, "duels_won": 4.0095, "total_long_balls": 1.1454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9429, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4758, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6448, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7564, "crosses_total": 1.4174, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 40.4397, "possession_lost": 9.258, "dispossessed": 0.6256, "duels_lost": 5.6294, "aerial_won": 1.1384, "aerial_lost": 2.1367, "interceptions": 0.5815, "tackles_won": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.6295, "clearances": 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squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7039, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.0654, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2239, "total_shots": 0.7282, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 83.85, "total_pass": 21.3783, "accurate_pass": 17.4012, "duels_won": 4.0095, "total_long_balls": 1.1454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9429, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4758, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6448, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7564, "crosses_total": 1.4344, "crosses_accurate": 0.2432, "touches": 40.4397, "possession_lost": 9.258, "dispossessed": 0.6256, "duels_lost": 5.6294, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 2.1367, "interceptions": 0.58, "tackles_won": 1.1137, "tackles": 1.6295, "clearances": 1.8128, "total_contest": 1.1705, "won_contest": 0.2393, "challenges_lost": 0.5273, "fouls": 1.3935, 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}, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03827 } ], "others_margin": -0.017816 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09474717080593109, "model_output": 0.0947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.0947, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132268 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.095908 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084673 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.067162 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.054848 } ], "others_margin": -0.202914 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.37265199422836304, "model_output": 0.3727, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.3727, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.157183 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.063697 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035752 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02641 } ], "others_margin": 0.023984 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9923387765884399, "model_output": 0.9923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.9923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087807 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048705 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021621 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.017497 } ], "others_margin": -0.003147 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.804436206817627, "model_output": 6.8044, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 6.8044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027524 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026622 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014498 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.006676 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005593 } ], "others_margin": -0.023947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "assists": 0.0878, "assist_rate": 0.0878, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.3776, "total_shots": 1.0055, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.706, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.743, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9581, "crosses_total": 0.2236, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9793, "possession_lost": 9.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1081, "duels_lost": 4.5726, "aerial_won": 0.6285, "aerial_lost": 1.2346, "interceptions": 0.4556, "tackles_won": 0.9462, "tackles": 1.4024, "clearances": 1.7009, "total_contest": 1.0218, "won_contest": 0.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.5955, "fouls": 1.1461, "fouls_drawn": 1.1051, "blocks": 0.4905, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.1998, "xgot": 0.0088, "ball_carries": 12.4011, "total_progression": 39.6908, "progressive_carries": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.6279 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0165)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goals": 0.0944, "goal_rate": 0.0944, "shots_on_target": 0.3714, "total_shots": 0.9889, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.706, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.743, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9581, "crosses_total": 0.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9793, "possession_lost": 9.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1081, "duels_lost": 4.5726, "aerial_won": 0.6285, "aerial_lost": 1.2346, "interceptions": 0.4803, "tackles_won": 0.9548, "tackles": 1.4024, "clearances": 1.7009, "total_contest": 1.0218, "won_contest": 0.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.5955, "fouls": 1.1675, "fouls_drawn": 1.103, "blocks": 0.4905, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.1998, "xgot": 0.0088, "ball_carries": 12.4011, "total_progression": 39.6908, "progressive_carries": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.6279 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0165, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9288, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4556, "after": 0.4803 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1461, "after": 1.1675 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0055, "after": 0.9889 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9462, "after": 0.9548 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.0944 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3776, "after": 0.3714 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goals": 0.0944, "goal_rate": 0.0944, "shots_on_target": 0.3714, "total_shots": 0.9993, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.706, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.743, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9581, "crosses_total": 0.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9793, "possession_lost": 9.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1081, "duels_lost": 4.5726, "aerial_won": 0.6285, "aerial_lost": 1.2346, "interceptions": 0.4803, "tackles_won": 0.9548, "tackles": 1.4024, "clearances": 1.7009, "total_contest": 1.0218, "won_contest": 0.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.5955, "fouls": 1.1675, "fouls_drawn": 1.103, "blocks": 0.4905, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.1998, "xgot": 0.0088, "ball_carries": 12.4011, "total_progression": 39.6908, "progressive_carries": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.6279 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "goals": 0.0861, "goal_rate": 0.0861, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9113, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.706, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.743, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9581, "crosses_total": 0.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9793, "possession_lost": 9.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1081, "duels_lost": 4.5726, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2346, "interceptions": 0.4803, "tackles_won": 0.9548, "tackles": 1.4024, "clearances": 1.7009, "total_contest": 1.0218, "won_contest": 0.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.5955, "fouls": 1.1675, "fouls_drawn": 1.103, "blocks": 0.4905, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 12.4011, "total_progression": 39.6908, "progressive_carries": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.5726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9119, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice", "opponent_faced": "Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9119, "skill_edge": -0.068, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.7364, "defender_skill": 0.8874, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "market_value": 63000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.876 }, { "player": "Declan Rice", "market_value": 114000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8988 } ], "xg_override": 0.0844 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6285, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9993, "after": 0.9113 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6279, "after": 0.5726 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3714, "after": 0.3387 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1998, "after": 0.1822 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0944, "after": 0.0861 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0925, "after": 0.0844 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0861, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9113, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.706, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.743, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9581, "crosses_total": 0.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9793, "possession_lost": 9.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1081, "duels_lost": 4.5726, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2346, "interceptions": 0.4803, "tackles_won": 0.9548, "tackles": 1.4024, "clearances": 1.7009, "total_contest": 1.0218, "won_contest": 0.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.5955, "fouls": 1.1675, "fouls_drawn": 1.103, "blocks": 0.4905, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 12.4011, "total_progression": 39.6908, "progressive_carries": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.5726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9119, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice", "opponent_faced": "Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8599, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0944, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0819, "goal_rate": 0.0861, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9113, "rating": 6.8044, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 29.5871, "accurate_pass": 24.7012, "duels_won": 3.6695, 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"importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": -0.1291, "total": 0.8411, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.123926 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035945 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.032936 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023914 } ], "others_margin": -0.129005 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.159599781036377, "model_output": 7.1596, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 7.1596, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.11828 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.039634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027529 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0985, "tackles": 2.194, "tackles_won": 1.3485, "clearances": 2.8754, "aerial_won": 1.4242, "total_shots": 0.4073, "rating": 6.738, "minutes": 89.95, "total_pass": 43.4895, "accurate_pass": 36.4801, "duels_won": 5.7248, "total_long_balls": 4.2134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3008, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8076, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8226, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6726, "crosses_total": 2.4151, "crosses_accurate": 0.463, "touches": 68.8821, "possession_lost": 13.9951, "dispossessed": 0.1764, "duels_lost": 3.5122, "aerial_lost": 1.2852, "total_contest": 0.9951, "won_contest": 0.5699, "ball_recovery": 4.6975, "challenges_lost": 1.0391, "fouls": 0.5899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1588, "blocks": 0.4931, "goals": 0.0, 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0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.5939, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062273 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034111 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019749 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.009912 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.006703 } ], "others_margin": -0.013829 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831112861633301, "model_output": 6.8311, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0271, "total": 6.8311, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019907 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.017452 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014555 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.01329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.012542 } ], "others_margin": 0.026999 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0207, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1565, "tackles": 1.4, "tackles_won": 0.8268, "clearances": 5.6987, "aerial_won": 2.1177, "total_shots": 0.6062, "rating": 6.8311, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 50.209, "accurate_pass": 43.4838, "duels_won": 4.2976, "total_long_balls": 5.7655, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7512, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.702, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7817, "crosses_total": 0.3679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1775, "possession_lost": 8.1301, "dispossessed": 0.178, "duels_lost": 2.9623, "aerial_lost": 1.7398, "total_contest": 0.1534, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1974, "challenges_lost": 0.4985, "fouls": 0.5631, "fouls_drawn": 0.8179, "blocks": 1.3501, "goals": 0.0375, 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0.8018 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3679, "after": 0.3607 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1565, "after": 1.1631 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1631, "tackles": 1.4, "tackles_won": 0.8301, "clearances": 5.6987, "aerial_won": 2.1177, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.8311, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 50.209, "accurate_pass": 43.4838, "duels_won": 4.2976, "total_long_balls": 5.7655, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7512, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.702, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7817, "crosses_total": 0.3607, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1775, "possession_lost": 8.1301, "dispossessed": 0.178, "duels_lost": 2.9623, "aerial_lost": 1.7398, "total_contest": 0.1534, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1974, "challenges_lost": 0.4985, "fouls": 0.5618, "fouls_drawn": 0.8018, 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0.178, "duels_lost": 2.9623, "aerial_lost": 1.7398, "total_contest": 0.1534, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1974, "challenges_lost": 0.4985, "fouls": 0.5618, "fouls_drawn": 0.8018, "blocks": 1.3501, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.3304, "big_chances_created": 0.1998, "xgot": 0.0346, "ball_carries": 14.3675, "total_progression": 44.4923, "progressive_carries": 0.5644, "key_pass": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.2792, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.795, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.946, "clearances": 2.6784, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "total_shots": 0.4618, "rating": 6.6165, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.1829, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4618, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.384, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.795, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.946, "clearances": 2.6784, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "total_shots": 0.4618, "rating": 6.6165, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4618, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.384, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1829, "after": 0.1484 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 96, "combined_rank_score": 93.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 49.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0105, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Nematov", "ranking": 91 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Suárez", "ranking": 92 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Dotor", "ranking": 93 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Martínez", "ranking": 94 }, { "player_name": "Luka Stankovski", "ranking": 95 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luke Brattan", "ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Caicedo", "ranking": 98 }, { "player_name": "Danrlei", "ranking": 99 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Guimarães", "ranking": 100 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Tonali", "ranking": 101 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 5.6 }, { 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"goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0272, "total": 0.043, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.028786 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025819 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.01239 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010958 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009767 } ], "others_margin": 0.027111 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0105061531066895, "model_output": 7.0105, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0019, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9404, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0181, "fouls_drawn": 0.3273, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.0019, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3273, "after": 0.3375 }, { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9404, "after": 2.9496 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 16.3, "expected_saves": 3.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.37, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.7125 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 16.3, "expected_saves": 3.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.37, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 16.3, "after": 17.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.99, "after": 4.31 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.37, "after": 1.48 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 96, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1461, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.9496, "goals_prevented": 0.043, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.0671, "accurate_pass": 24.7948, "total_long_balls": 20.795, "accurate_long_balls": 6.7304, "touches": 48.6069, "clearances": 1.2427, "ball_recovery": 9.2156, "high_claims": 0.6475, "punches": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.1394, "sweeper_actions": 0.9921, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9916, "saves_inside_box": 1.8159, "possession_lost": 14.3752, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.0193, "total_contest": 0.0924, "won_contest": 0.0924, "fouls": 0.0179, "fouls_drawn": 0.3375, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9962, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7125, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.8126, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Mark Travers": { "player_id": 856720, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 191, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4093, "combined_rank_score": 2074.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3940.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mark Travers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alfredo Morelos", "ranking": 4088 }, { "player_name": "Éverton Ribeiro", "ranking": 4089 }, { "player_name": "Vítězslav Jaroš", "ranking": 4090 }, { "player_name": "Willian José", "ranking": 4091 }, { "player_name": "Hwang Hee-chan", "ranking": 4092 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Michael Svoboda", "ranking": 4094 }, { "player_name": "Romeo Vermant", "ranking": 4095 }, { "player_name": "Kaine Kesler-Hayden", "ranking": 4096 }, { "player_name": "Luke Woolfenden", "ranking": 4097 }, { "player_name": "Adam Smith", "ranking": 4098 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,800,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, 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0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.879243 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.24548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074488 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.039541 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022967 } ], "others_margin": -0.058322 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20852133631706238, "model_output": 0.2085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2087 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.2085, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20869 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.049558 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023886 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023697 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010898 } ], "others_margin": 0.002539 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.607372283935547, "model_output": 6.6074, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 189, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0146, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"global_player_rank": 4547, "combined_rank_score": 2610.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 471.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8833, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 4750.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7293, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan Patterson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Valera", "ranking": 4542 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Fernández", "ranking": 4543 }, { "player_name": "Ximo Navarro", "ranking": 4544 }, { "player_name": "João Virgínia", "ranking": 4545 }, { "player_name": "Dimitri Foulquier", "ranking": 4546 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Isaac Price", "ranking": 4548 }, { "player_name": "Andy Irving", "ranking": 4549 }, { "player_name": "Abel Ruíz", "ranking": 4550 }, { "player_name": "Enzo 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"totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.950580115654624, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.31593545980248294, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (7 historical appearances) to 14.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw 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"2025-12-30", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2158, "aerialWon": 0.9217, "totalClearance_p90": 22.8224, "totalTackle": 1.3145, "defensive_actions": 1.548 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2878425419330597, "model_output": 0.2878, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4581 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 0.2878, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.760359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11937 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.064128 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028401 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.028398 } ], "others_margin": -0.09424 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5740498900413513, "model_output": 0.574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7599 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.574, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797243 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.041614 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.040276 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.038813 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032577 } ], "others_margin": -0.08967 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.30020907521247864, "model_output": 0.3002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4628 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.021, "total": 0.3002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.79349 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.091289 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.030815 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.026129 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.025799 } ], "others_margin": -0.067352 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0450459718704224, "model_output": 1.045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0957 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1876 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0428 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 1.045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.946427 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.152121 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.108924 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043494 } ], "others_margin": 0.038979 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.419201523065567, "model_output": 0.4192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8336 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1186 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0248 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.4192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.92085 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.242096 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.088043 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071102 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.057859 } ], "others_margin": 0.008644 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1927, "model_output": 0.1817, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0831 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.1817, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.083059 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.028041 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.017423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010993 } ], "others_margin": 0.008198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729252338409424, "model_output": 6.7293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 6.7293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.040428 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.028347 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01629 } ], "others_margin": -0.039384 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2888, "tackles": 0.5761, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "clearances": 1.0487, "aerial_won": 0.4207, "total_shots": 0.1934, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 11.11, "total_pass": 2.0401, "accurate_pass": 0.9965, "duels_won": 0.4611, "total_long_balls": 0.4611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.5354, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5354, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5047, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.4611, "crosses_total": 0.9964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.4609, "possession_lost": 2.2676, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2676, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.1934, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 0.1934, "total_progression": 0.8529, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.1 to 14.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.7234, "tackles_won": 0.3783, "clearances": 1.3168, "aerial_won": 0.5283, "total_shots": 0.2428, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 2.5617, "accurate_pass": 1.2513, "duels_won": 0.579, "total_long_balls": 0.579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.579, "crosses_total": 1.2512, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.6015, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.336, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.2428, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0146, "ball_carries": 0.2428, "total_progression": 1.071, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.95, "projection_minutes": 11.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2557, "appearance_probability": 0.316 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.7234, "tackles_won": 0.3783, "clearances": 1.3168, "aerial_won": 0.5283, "total_shots": 0.2428, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 2.5617, "accurate_pass": 1.2513, "duels_won": 0.579, "total_long_balls": 0.579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.579, "crosses_total": 1.2512, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.6015, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.336, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.2428, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0146, "ball_carries": 0.2428, "total_progression": 1.071, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.7234, "tackles_won": 0.3783, "clearances": 1.3168, "aerial_won": 0.5283, "total_shots": 0.2428, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 2.5617, "accurate_pass": 1.2513, "duels_won": 0.579, "total_long_balls": 0.579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.579, "crosses_total": 1.2512, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.6015, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.336, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2529 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0343 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.3216, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.252916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03638 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034287 } ], "others_margin": 0.004422 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.693068504333496, "model_output": 6.6931, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0938 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.6931, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093792 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014685 } ], "others_margin": -0.02345 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0337, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3431, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assists": 0.0593, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3325, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2014, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2175 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0337, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0236)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3431, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.1123, "total_shots": 0.3281, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.9042, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0034, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2001, "fouls_drawn": 0.0103, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2175 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0236, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1748, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0103 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.912, "after": 0.9042 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "assists": 0.0868, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, 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5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0364, "after": 0.0185 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0473, "after": 0.0202 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, 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0.0064 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.06, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.101017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.076477 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.065139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06142 } ], "others_margin": -0.027888 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3724459707736969, "model_output": 0.3724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0966 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0376, "total": 0.3724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351196 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.148657 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.092712 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.082843 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.053557 } ], "others_margin": 0.106536 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.73585444688797, "model_output": 0.7359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4028 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0297 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.7359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.402751 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.054204 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030597 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.029709 } ], "others_margin": -0.016991 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667901992797852, "model_output": 6.6679, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0794 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.6679, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079382 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.052007 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050594 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016914 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014725 } ], "others_margin": -0.037807 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2918, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.061, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3738, "total_shots": 0.7386, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 7.2145, "accurate_pass": 5.9146, "duels_won": 1.1361, "total_long_balls": 0.6589, "accurate_long_balls": 0.343, "total_own_half_passes": 1.888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7024, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2122, "crosses_total": 0.2176, "crosses_accurate": 0.1863, "touches": 10.9803, "possession_lost": 2.3418, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.3779, "aerial_won": 0.1425, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0876, "tackles_won": 0.3629, "tackles": 0.3868, "clearances": 0.1319, "total_contest": 0.5311, "won_contest": 0.2085, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.3983, "blocks": 0.1211, "big_chances_created": 0.0438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0198, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 3.6436, "total_progression": 15.2523, "progressive_carries": 0.252, "shots_off_target": 0.3647 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0008)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2918, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.061, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3753, "total_shots": 0.7416, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 7.2145, "accurate_pass": 5.9146, "duels_won": 1.1361, "total_long_balls": 0.6589, "accurate_long_balls": 0.343, "total_own_half_passes": 1.888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7024, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2122, "crosses_total": 0.2174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1863, "touches": 10.9803, "possession_lost": 2.3418, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.3779, "aerial_won": 0.1425, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0875, "tackles_won": 0.3638, "tackles": 0.3868, "clearances": 0.1319, "total_contest": 0.5311, "won_contest": 0.2085, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.3869, "fouls_drawn": 0.398, "blocks": 0.1211, "big_chances_created": 0.0438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0198, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 3.6436, "total_progression": 15.2523, "progressive_carries": 0.252, "shots_off_target": 0.3647 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0008, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1526, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.7 to 11.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2504, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goals": 0.0517, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6363, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 6.1899, "accurate_pass": 5.0746, "duels_won": 0.9747, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.57, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.614, "crosses_total": 0.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1598, "touches": 9.4208, "possession_lost": 2.0092, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.1822, "aerial_won": 0.1223, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0751, "tackles_won": 0.3121, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.1132, "total_contest": 0.4557, "won_contest": 0.1789, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.332, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "blocks": 0.1039, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 3.1261, "total_progression": 13.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.2162, "shots_off_target": 0.3129, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.78, "projection_minutes": 13.73, "minutes_scale": 0.858, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2504, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goals": 0.0517, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6363, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 6.1899, "accurate_pass": 5.0746, "duels_won": 0.9747, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.57, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.614, "crosses_total": 0.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1598, "touches": 9.4208, "possession_lost": 2.0092, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.1822, "aerial_won": 0.1223, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0751, "tackles_won": 0.3121, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.1132, "total_contest": 0.4557, "won_contest": 0.1789, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.332, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "blocks": 0.1039, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 3.1261, "total_progression": 13.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.2162, "shots_off_target": 0.3129, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2504, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6363, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 6.1899, "accurate_pass": 5.0746, "duels_won": 0.9747, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.57, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.614, "crosses_total": 0.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1598, "touches": 9.4208, "possession_lost": 2.0092, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.1822, "aerial_won": 0.1223, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0751, "tackles_won": 0.3121, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.1132, "total_contest": 0.4557, "won_contest": 0.1789, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.332, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "blocks": 0.1039, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 3.1261, "total_progression": 13.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.2162, "shots_off_target": 0.3129, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2504, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6363, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 6.1899, "accurate_pass": 5.0746, "duels_won": 0.9747, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.57, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.614, "crosses_total": 0.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1598, "touches": 9.4208, "possession_lost": 2.0092, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.1822, "aerial_won": 0.1223, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0751, "tackles_won": 0.3121, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.1132, "total_contest": 0.4557, "won_contest": 0.1789, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.332, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "blocks": 0.1039, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 3.1261, "total_progression": 13.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.2162, "shots_off_target": 0.3129, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9941, "creation_factor": 1.1654 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0523, "after": 0.0357 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0183, "after": 0.0104 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2504, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6363, "rating": 6.6679, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 6.1899, "accurate_pass": 5.0746, "duels_won": 0.9747, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.57, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.614, "crosses_total": 0.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1598, "touches": 9.4208, "possession_lost": 2.0092, "dispossessed": 0.1299, "duels_lost": 1.1822, "aerial_won": 0.1223, "aerial_lost": 0.292, "interceptions": 0.0751, "tackles_won": 0.3121, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.1132, "total_contest": 0.4557, "won_contest": 0.1789, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.332, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "blocks": 0.1039, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 3.1261, "total_progression": 13.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.2162, "shots_off_target": 0.3129, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9941, "creation_factor": 1.1654, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3596, "fifa_rank": 2215.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", 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{ "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.600615978240967, "model_output": 6.6006, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0543, "total": 6.6006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.043322 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032837 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.1119, "shots_on_target": 0.2167, "total_shots": 0.6124, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3445, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7727, "accurate_pass": 2.3485, "duels_won": 0.6777, "total_long_balls": 0.6776, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3774, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1466, "crosses_total": 0.3049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1417, "touches": 7.2124, "possession_lost": 2.0749, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1192, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1746, "won_contest": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.7289, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.1857, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1078, "tackles": 0.3416, "clearances": 0.4921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1763, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.275, "ball_carries": 1.4234, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.3957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goals": 0.1117, "goal_rate": 0.1117, "shots_on_target": 0.2163, "total_shots": 0.6112, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3445, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7727, "accurate_pass": 2.3485, "duels_won": 0.6777, "total_long_balls": 0.6776, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3774, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1466, "crosses_total": 0.3043, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.069, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2185, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.348, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.81, "total_pass": 3.8111, "accurate_pass": 2.3724, "duels_won": 0.6846, "total_long_balls": 0.6845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3812, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1583, "crosses_total": 0.3074, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1174, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.743 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0957, "after": 0.069 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0255, "after": 0.0154 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0218, "total": 0.4913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493986 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.128392 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.093974 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057616 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042 } ], "others_margin": 0.04556 } }, { "target": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2072, "total_shots": 0.6161, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.4962, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 11.26, "accurate_pass": 10.0398, "duels_won": 1.0967, "total_long_balls": 0.4384, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3836, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6998, "crosses_total": 0.9358, "crosses_accurate": 0.254, "touches": 16.7836, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 1.9514, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.5332, "won_contest": 0.5127, "ball_recovery": 1.1199, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.1915, "fouls_drawn": 0.2282, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0717, "tackles_won": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3417, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2172, "big_chances_missed": 0.012, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 8.4266, "total_progression": 35.3193, "progressive_carries": 1.3093, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0128)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.2064, "total_shots": 0.6213, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.4962, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 11.26, "accurate_pass": 10.0398, "duels_won": 1.0967, "total_long_balls": 0.4384, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3836, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6998, "crosses_total": 0.9313, 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0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.025, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338366 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.132545 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.11068 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.081367 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064051 } ], "others_margin": -0.349041 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3420029282569885, "model_output": 0.342, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2322 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": 0.342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4173 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079287 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.038396 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029609 } ], "others_margin": -0.065315 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.600615978240967, "model_output": 6.6006, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0543, "total": 6.6006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.043322 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032837 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011744 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011492 } ], "others_margin": -0.054153 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.1119, "shots_on_target": 0.2167, "total_shots": 0.6124, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3445, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7727, "accurate_pass": 2.3485, "duels_won": 0.6777, "total_long_balls": 0.6776, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3774, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1466, "crosses_total": 0.3049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1417, "touches": 7.2124, "possession_lost": 2.0749, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1192, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1746, "won_contest": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.7289, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3492, "fouls_drawn": 0.1857, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1078, "tackles": 0.3416, "clearances": 0.4921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1763, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.275, "ball_carries": 1.4234, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.3957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goals": 0.1117, "goal_rate": 0.1117, "shots_on_target": 0.2163, "total_shots": 0.6112, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3445, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7727, "accurate_pass": 2.3485, "duels_won": 0.6777, "total_long_balls": 0.6776, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3774, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1466, "crosses_total": 0.3043, "crosses_accurate": 0.1417, "touches": 7.2124, "possession_lost": 2.0749, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1192, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1746, "won_contest": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.7289, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3508, "fouls_drawn": 0.1865, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1076, "tackles": 0.3416, "clearances": 0.4921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1763, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2756, "ball_carries": 1.4234, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.3957 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2399, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 21.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0957, 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"shots_off_target": 0.3997, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.743, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.81 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.81, "projection_minutes": 21.59, "minutes_scale": 1.0102, "appearance_probability": 0.743 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.1128, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.2185, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "key_pass": 0.348, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.81, "total_pass": 3.8111, "accurate_pass": 2.3724, "duels_won": 0.6846, "total_long_balls": 0.6845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3812, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1583, "crosses_total": 0.3074, "crosses_accurate": 0.1431, "touches": 7.2859, "possession_lost": 2.096, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1306, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1764, "won_contest": 0.0715, "ball_recovery": 0.7363, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3544, "fouls_drawn": 0.1884, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1087, "tackles": 0.3451, "clearances": 0.4971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1781, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2756, "ball_carries": 1.4379, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1362, "shots_off_target": 0.3997, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.743, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.81 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2185, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "key_pass": 0.348, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.81, "total_pass": 3.8111, "accurate_pass": 2.3724, "duels_won": 0.6846, "total_long_balls": 0.6845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3812, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1583, "crosses_total": 0.3074, "crosses_accurate": 0.1431, "touches": 7.2859, "possession_lost": 2.096, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1306, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1764, "won_contest": 0.0715, "ball_recovery": 0.7363, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3544, "fouls_drawn": 0.1884, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1087, "tackles": 0.3451, "clearances": 0.4971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1781, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2756, "ball_carries": 1.4379, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1362, "shots_off_target": 0.3997, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.743, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.069, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2185, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.348, "rating": 6.6006, "minutes": 21.81, "total_pass": 3.8111, "accurate_pass": 2.3724, "duels_won": 0.6846, "total_long_balls": 0.6845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3812, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1583, "crosses_total": 0.3074, "crosses_accurate": 0.1431, "touches": 7.2859, "possession_lost": 2.096, "dispossessed": 0.1357, "duels_lost": 1.1306, "aerial_lost": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.1764, "won_contest": 0.0715, "ball_recovery": 0.7363, "challenges_lost": 0.1814, "fouls": 0.3544, "fouls_drawn": 0.1884, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1087, "tackles": 0.3451, "clearances": 0.4971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1781, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2756, "ball_carries": 1.4379, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1362, "shots_off_target": 0.3997, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.743, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.81, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4028 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0297 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.7359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.402751 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.054204 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030597 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.029709 } ], "others_margin": -0.016991 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667901992797852, "model_output": 6.6679, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { 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{ "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.0384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494863 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.219652 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.18446 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088635 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.083795 } ], "others_margin": 0.120027 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11123881489038467, "model_output": 0.1112, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.1112, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530787 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.329597 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.25738 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089385 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.066942 } ], "others_margin": -0.113864 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32160237431526184, "model_output": 0.3216, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2529 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0343 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.3216, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.252916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03638 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034287 } ], "others_margin": 0.004422 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.693068504333496, "model_output": 6.6931, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0938 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.6931, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093792 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014685 } ], "others_margin": -0.02345 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0337, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3431, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assists": 0.0593, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3325, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, 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"total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.9042, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0034, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2001, "fouls_drawn": 0.0103, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2175 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0236, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1748, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0103 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.912, "after": 0.9042 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "assists": 0.0868, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.73, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "assists": 0.0868, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5147, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1684, "total_shots": 0.4947, "rating": 6.6931, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, 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"player_name": "Alberto Reina", "ranking": 4127 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Osorio", "ranking": 4128 }, { "player_name": "Leo Sauer", "ranking": 4129 }, { "player_name": "Isac Lidberg", "ranking": 4130 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Pedersen", "ranking": 4131 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 }, { "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking": 4135 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 22, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", 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"model_output": 0.4913, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0218, "total": 0.4913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493986 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.128392 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.093974 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057616 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042 } ], "others_margin": 0.04556 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.694619655609131, "model_output": 6.6946, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.6946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078554 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028544 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015478 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012701 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010425 } ], "others_margin": -0.036852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2072, "total_shots": 0.6161, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.4962, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 11.26, "accurate_pass": 10.0398, "duels_won": 1.0967, "total_long_balls": 0.4384, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3836, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6998, "crosses_total": 0.9358, "crosses_accurate": 0.254, "touches": 16.7836, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 1.9514, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.5332, "won_contest": 0.5127, "ball_recovery": 1.1199, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.1915, "fouls_drawn": 0.2282, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0717, "tackles_won": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3417, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2172, "big_chances_missed": 0.012, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 8.4266, "total_progression": 35.3193, "progressive_carries": 1.3093, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0128)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.2064, "total_shots": 0.6213, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.4962, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 11.26, "accurate_pass": 10.0398, "duels_won": 1.0967, "total_long_balls": 0.4384, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3836, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6998, "crosses_total": 0.9313, "crosses_accurate": 0.254, "touches": 16.7836, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 1.9514, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.5332, "won_contest": 0.5127, "ball_recovery": 1.1199, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.189, "fouls_drawn": 0.2271, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0745, "tackles_won": 0.2445, "tackles": 0.3417, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2172, "big_chances_missed": 0.012, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 8.4266, "total_progression": 35.3193, "progressive_carries": 1.3093, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0128, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2342, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6161, "after": 0.6213 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0634, "goals": 0.0853, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "shots_on_target": 0.2573, "total_shots": 0.7744, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0328, "offsides": 0.159, 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0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0328, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 10.5036, "total_progression": 44.025, "progressive_carries": 1.632, "shots_off_target": 0.5096, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0471, xG scale 0.9703, xA scale 0.8122, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2573, "total_shots": 0.7744, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "key_pass": 0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0113, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 10.5036, "total_progression": 44.025, "progressive_carries": 1.632, "shots_off_target": 0.5096, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1931, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0471, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0007, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9703, "xa_scale": 0.8122, "opponent_lambda": 1.854, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.354 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0634, "after": 0.0218 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0166 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2573, "total_shots": 0.7744, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "key_pass": 0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0113, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 10.5036, "total_progression": 44.025, "progressive_carries": 1.632, "shots_off_target": 0.5096, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1931, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4132, "fifa_rank": 3928.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2573, "total_shots": 0.7744, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "key_pass": 0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0113, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 10.5036, "total_progression": 44.025, "progressive_carries": 1.632, "shots_off_target": 0.5096, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1931, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "scorer_weight": 0.026, "squad_weight_total": 1.1461, "weight_share": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 1.1931, "appearance_weight": 0.354, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2573, "total_shots": 0.7744, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "key_pass": 0.6185, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 14.0354, "accurate_pass": 12.5145, "duels_won": 1.367, "total_long_balls": 0.5465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3512, "crosses_total": 1.1609, "crosses_accurate": 0.3166, "touches": 20.9205, "possession_lost": 4.8719, "dispossessed": 0.5167, "duels_lost": 2.4324, "aerial_lost": 0.061, "total_contest": 1.9111, "won_contest": 0.6391, "ball_recovery": 1.3959, "challenges_lost": 0.1617, "fouls": 0.2356, "fouls_drawn": 0.2831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0929, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2707, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0113, "offsides": 0.159, "ball_carries": 10.5036, "total_progression": 44.025, "progressive_carries": 1.632, "shots_off_target": 0.5096, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.652, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "finishing_factor": 1.1931, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0133, "squad_weight_total": 0.8126, "weight_share": 0.0163, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.354, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.81, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 443, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.616, "xg_contribution": 0.2028, "xg_multiplier": 1.2001, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.384 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Ainsley Maitland-Niles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kai Havertz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.4072, "xg_multiplier": 1.0622, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kai Havertz (ST) is slightly favored against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.407 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Noni Madueke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.12, "xg_multiplier": 0.977, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noni Madueke (ST) is evenly matched against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Merlin Röhl" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.615, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.1162, "xg_multiplier": 1.0751, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Merlin Röhl", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CDM) is slightly favored against Merlin Röhl in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Merlin Röhl" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.615, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.521, "xg_contribution": 0.0684, "xg_multiplier": 1.149, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Merlin Röhl", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.479 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (CDM) is slightly favored against Merlin Röhl in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.1743, "xg_multiplier": 0.9388, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "role": "RB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Myles Lewis-Skelly in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €69M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Harrison Armstrong", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0843, "xg_multiplier": 0.9119, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harrison Armstrong (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €88M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.865, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3662, "xg_multiplier": 0.9494, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is evenly matched against Gabriel Magalhães and Riccardo Calafiori in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.366 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jack Grealish", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.865, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0735, "xg_multiplier": 0.7836, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Grealish (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gabriel Magalhães and Riccardo Calafiori in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Merlin Röhl", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18400000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.615, "defenders": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0494, "xg_multiplier": 0.9249, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Merlin Röhl (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Eberechi Eze in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.0588, "xg_multiplier": 1.0114, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CDM) is evenly matched against Eberechi Eze in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.881, "away_midfield_power": 0.769, "home_creative_power": 0.927, "away_creative_power": 0.686, "home_defensive_power": 0.73, "away_defensive_power": 0.699, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.534, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Eberechi Eze", "Declan Rice" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Merlin Röhl", "Harrison Armstrong", "James Garner" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Declan Rice vs James Garner", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.017, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.99 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.854, "away_lambda": 1.016, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "James Garner" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noni Madueke": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Merlin Röhl", "Harrison Armstrong", "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Merlin Röhl", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Riccardo Calafiori": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ainsley Maitland-Niles": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Merlin Röhl": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jack Grealish": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Declan Rice vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9382, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.859, "home_midfield_factor": 1.017, "away_midfield_factor": 0.99, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8473, "away_avg_quality": 0.6865, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1608, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7955, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6322, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5796, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3189, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1754, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1021, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9146, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0484 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.017, "result": 1.0663 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0663 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2262 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.972, "result": 1.1919 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9575, "result": 1.1412 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9382, "result": 1.0706 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.2506 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2506, "result": 1.2506, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3189, "factor": 1.1754, "pre": 1.2506, "result": 1.47 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.47 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1578, "result": 1.6278 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.7125 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7125, "result": 1.712, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0429, "pre": 1.712, "result": 1.7854, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0847, "pre": 1.7854, "result": 1.937 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.937 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.957, "input_total": 2.87, "result": 1.8537 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.8537, "result": 1.854, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.854 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8065, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9674 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9577 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9577 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9577 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.887, "result": 0.8495 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8871, "result": 0.7535 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.859, "result": 0.6473 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 0.8273 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8273, "result": 0.8273, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3189, "factor": 0.8979, "pre": 0.8273, "result": 0.7429 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7429 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1688, "result": 0.9118 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.134 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.134, "result": 1.134, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9571, "pre": 1.134, "result": 1.0854, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9781, "pre": 1.0854, "result": 1.062 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.062 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.957, "input_total": 2.87, "result": 1.0163 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.0163, "result": 1.016, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.016 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1578, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1688, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3189, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0847, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9781, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.7854, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.0854, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.937, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.062, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7125, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.134, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.854, "final_away_lambda": 1.016 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.972, "attack_index": 1.088, "defense_concede_index": 0.841, "form_multiplier": 1.033, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.58, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 2.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.887, "attack_index": 0.876, "defense_concede_index": 0.858, "form_multiplier": 0.967, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.24, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 2.01 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Arsenal vs Everton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.712, Away 1.134). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.854, Away 1.016 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.854, "away_lambda": 1.016, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.712, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.134 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:31:11Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }