{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Fulham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1294, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0975, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1054, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2723, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1294 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1054 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0975 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0835 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0831 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0835, "0-1": 0.1054, "0-2": 0.0692, "0-3": 0.0299, "0-4": 0.0097, "0-5": 0.0025, "0-6": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0975, "1-1": 0.1294, "1-2": 0.0831, "1-3": 0.0359, "1-4": 0.0116, "1-5": 0.003, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0593, "2-1": 0.0769, "2-2": 0.0499, "2-3": 0.0216, "2-4": 0.007, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0237, "3-1": 0.0308, "3-2": 0.02, "3-3": 0.0086, "3-4": 0.0028, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0071, "4-1": 0.0092, "4-2": 0.006, "4-3": 0.0026, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0017, "5-1": 0.0022, "5-2": 0.0014, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.341, "draw": 0.2723, "away_win": 0.3867 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4557, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5443, "btts_yes": 0.5092, "btts_no": 0.4908, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2734, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3009 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.72, "GK": 6.62 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 7.13, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Fulham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Coventry 2W-0D-0L vs Fulham over 2 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Taiwo Awoniyi, Gonzalo García", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Caleb Yirenkyi vs Josh King will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 0.99. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.297, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 2, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0333, "away_multiplier": 0.9667 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1294, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.341, "draw": 0.2723, "away_win": 0.3867 }, "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3867, "fair_spread": -0.096, "fair_total": 2.498, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.201, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.297, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4557, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5092, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2734, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3009, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.2958, "probability": 0.2561, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonzalo García (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.3354, "probability": 0.2849, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.177, "probability": 0.1622, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Iwobi (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.2094, "probability": 0.1889, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.498, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 826, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.3, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3867, "script": "Fulham is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.10 goals and fair total 2.50.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Fulham lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Fulham chance creation leans on Gonzalo García against Ethan Pinnock, Bobby Thomas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through Taiwo Awoniyi; bench watchlist: Sidiki Cherif, Victor Torp.", "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Gonzalo García; bench watchlist: Kevin, Rodrigo Muniz, Emile Smith Rowe.", "Assist usage should flow through Jack Rudoni, Alex Iwobi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Fulham tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.25 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Fulham.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Coventry": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Taiwo Awoniyi": { "player_id": 359664, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 183, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2958, "goal_rate": 0.2401, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0521, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6978, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.7246, "dispossessed": 0.4064, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3936, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8857, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2561, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0508, "finishing_factor": 0.9175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363890, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2757, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 53, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3131, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9255, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1654, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1819, "expected_assists": 0.3489, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.153, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1098, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3704, "combined_rank_score": 1659.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2677.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6978, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean Lucas", "ranking": 3699 }, { "player_name": "André Almeida", "ranking": 3700 }, { "player_name": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "ranking": 3701 }, { "player_name": "Kervin Arriaga", "ranking": 3702 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 3703 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ismail Jakobs", "ranking": 3705 }, { "player_name": "Denis Suárez", "ranking": 3706 }, { "player_name": "Ernest Muçi", "ranking": 3707 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Suazo", "ranking": 3708 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 3709 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 22, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 22, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9994, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2756, "expected_assists": 0.1483, "assists": 0.1214, "assist_rate": 0.1214, "expected_goals": 0.1975, "goals": 0.2275, "goal_rate": 0.2275, "shots_on_target": 0.6473, "total_shots": 1.751, "rating": 6.8583, "minutes": 79.34, "total_pass": 19.8856, "accurate_pass": 14.9208, "duels_won": 4.545, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5509, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3701, "crosses_total": 4.0375, "crosses_accurate": 1.4827, "touches": 39.7332, "possession_lost": 14.1054, "dispossessed": 1.1653, "duels_lost": 6.3441, "aerial_won": 1.1146, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "interceptions": 0.4135, "tackles_won": 0.3048, "tackles": 0.9033, "clearances": 0.8996, "total_contest": 2.4711, "won_contest": 0.875, "challenges_lost": 0.8875, "fouls": 1.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.652, "blocks": 0.3048, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3665, "xgot": 0.4327, "ball_carries": 9.6276, "total_progression": 55.7069, "progressive_carries": 2.3401, "shots_off_target": 1.1036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2756, "expected_assists": 0.1483, "assists": 0.1214, "assist_rate": 0.1214, "expected_goals": 0.1975, "goals": 0.2275, "goal_rate": 0.2275, "shots_on_target": 0.6473, "total_shots": 1.751, "rating": 6.8583, "minutes": 79.34, "total_pass": 19.8856, "accurate_pass": 14.9208, "duels_won": 4.545, "total_long_balls": 0.5639, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0357 } ], "others": -0.1026, "total": 0.5731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.224179 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053839 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.05164 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051437 } ], "others_margin": -0.164769 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738209247589111, "model_output": 6.7382, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.7382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041921 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016016 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008762 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008728 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.008673 } ], "others_margin": -0.029812 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0113, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1429, "goals": 0.1841, "goal_rate": 0.1841, "shots_on_target": 0.4917, "total_shots": 1.7295, "expected_assists": 0.031, "key_pass": 0.5795, "rating": 6.7382, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 11.2785, "accurate_pass": 5.9655, "duels_won": 8.5048, "total_long_balls": 0.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5395, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3078, "crosses_total": 0.694, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.191, "possession_lost": 11.7897, "dispossessed": 0.5466, "duels_lost": 7.4319, "aerial_lost": 4.1531, "total_contest": 2.7666, "won_contest": 1.0457, "ball_recovery": 3.2439, "challenges_lost": 0.694, "fouls": 0.3173, "fouls_drawn": 3.1159, "assists": 0.5872, "assist_rate": 0.5872, "interceptions": 2.6488, "tackles_won": 0.2697, "tackles": 1.8621, "clearances": 0.9232, "blocks": 0.5395, "big_chances_created": 0.3173, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0046, "offsides": 0.3173, "ball_carries": 10.1318, "total_progression": 57.3881, "progressive_carries": 0.9232, "shots_off_target": 1.2378 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0113, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0199)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1429, "goals": 0.1804, "goal_rate": 0.1804, "shots_on_target": 0.4819, "total_shots": 1.6952, "expected_assists": 0.031, "key_pass": 0.5795, "rating": 6.7382, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 11.2785, "accurate_pass": 5.9655, "duels_won": 8.5048, "total_long_balls": 0.7344, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5395, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3078, "crosses_total": 0.7129, 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0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2414 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1274 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0601 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0361 } ], "others": -0.1666, "total": 0.5811, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.241374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12744 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038959 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036133 } ], "others_margin": -0.166689 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.84909725189209, "model_output": 6.8491, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9950, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "assists": 0.066, "assist_rate": 0.066, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.1396, "total_shots": 0.5782, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.3455, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 0.9206, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.493, "tackles_won": 0.7664, "tackles": 1.8105, "clearances": 1.7698, 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"total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 0.9206, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.4752, "tackles_won": 0.7387, "tackles": 1.8105, "clearances": 1.7698, "total_contest": 0.1587, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.6078, "blocks": 0.3122, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.98, "total_progression": 58.3942, "progressive_carries": 0.3171, "shots_off_target": 0.4386 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0361, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9718, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.3455, "after": 2.4362 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9812, "after": 0.9458 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7664, "after": 0.7387 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.493, "after": 0.4752 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5942, "after": 0.6078 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1396, "after": 0.1346 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "assists": 0.0636, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1346, "total_shots": 0.5749, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, 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87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.4752, "tackles_won": 0.7387, "tackles": 1.8105, "clearances": 1.7698, "total_contest": 0.1587, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.6078, "blocks": 0.3122, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.98, "total_progression": 58.3942, "progressive_carries": 0.3171, "shots_off_target": 0.3285, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.749, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.749, "skill_edge": -0.1107, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4759, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0257 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5749, "after": 0.4306 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4386, "after": 0.3285 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9206, "after": 1.0 }, { 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1008, "total_shots": 0.4306, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.4752, "tackles_won": 0.7387, "tackles": 1.8105, "clearances": 1.7698, "total_contest": 0.1587, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.6078, "blocks": 0.3122, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.98, "total_progression": 58.3942, "progressive_carries": 0.3171, "shots_off_target": 0.3285, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.749, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 1.0098 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0625, "after": 0.0746 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1008, "total_shots": 0.4306, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.4752, "tackles_won": 0.7387, "tackles": 1.8105, "clearances": 1.7698, "total_contest": 0.1587, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9458, "fouls_drawn": 0.6078, "blocks": 0.3122, 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SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1008, "total_shots": 0.4306, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4984, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4143, "crosses_total": 2.4362, "crosses_accurate": 0.3911, "touches": 54.752, "possession_lost": 9.7941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6442, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8601, "interceptions": 0.4752, "tackles_won": 0.7387, "tackles": 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"goal_rate": 0.0389, "scorer_weight": 0.0336, "squad_weight_total": 1.2197, "weight_share": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7198, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1008, "total_shots": 0.4306, "rating": 6.8491, "minutes": 87.46, "total_pass": 43.9593, "accurate_pass": 36.9126, "duels_won": 3.3252, "total_long_balls": 5.7826, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7614, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1213, 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{ "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0547, "total": 6.7064, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042128 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032903 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030335 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.020561 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010299 } ], "others_margin": -0.054531 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0193, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0547, "assist_rate": 0.0547, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1439, "total_shots": 0.6122, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3674, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.082, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0581, "tackles_won": 0.4672, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, "challenges_lost": 0.7071, "fouls": 2.2731, "fouls_drawn": 1.0034, "blocks": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0243, "total_progression": 30.8865, "progressive_carries": 0.8993, "shots_off_target": 0.4683 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0193, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "shots_on_target": 0.14, "total_shots": 0.6114, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, 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1.0581, "after": 1.0294 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.2731, "after": 2.2572 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4672, "after": 0.4545 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3674, "after": 0.3727 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "shots_on_target": 0.14, "total_shots": 0.6114, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.082, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, "challenges_lost": 0.7071, "fouls": 2.2572, "fouls_drawn": 1.0067, "blocks": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0243, "total_progression": 30.8865, "progressive_carries": 0.8993, "shots_off_target": 0.4683 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goals": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, "challenges_lost": 0.7071, "fouls": 2.2572, "fouls_drawn": 1.0067, "blocks": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0243, "total_progression": 30.8865, "progressive_carries": 0.8993, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9055, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9055, "skill_edge": -0.0123, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.6946, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0344 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6114, "after": 0.5536 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4683, "after": 0.424 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.082, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.14, "after": 0.1268 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, 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scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, "challenges_lost": 0.7071, "fouls": 2.2572, "fouls_drawn": 1.0067, "blocks": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0243, "total_progression": 30.8865, "progressive_carries": 0.8993, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9055, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0498, "creation_factor": 1.1661 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0385, "after": 0.046 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 1.4491, "clearances": 1.1371, "total_contest": 1.6692, "won_contest": 0.4322, "challenges_lost": 0.7071, "fouls": 2.2572, "fouls_drawn": 1.0067, "blocks": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0243, "total_progression": 30.8865, "progressive_carries": 0.8993, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9055, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0498, "creation_factor": 1.1661, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4068, "fifa_rank": 3222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6153, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7064, "minutes": 75.91, "total_pass": 23.1936, "accurate_pass": 21.4902, "duels_won": 3.9667, "total_long_balls": 1.2379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9769, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5133, "crosses_total": 0.3727, "crosses_accurate": 0.1688, "touches": 34.6016, "possession_lost": 5.6902, "dispossessed": 0.4436, "duels_lost": 6.0452, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3843, "interceptions": 1.0294, 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{ "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0402 } ], "others": -0.0899, "total": 0.6967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.379644 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.156712 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117609 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.097279 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.049886 } ], "others_margin": -0.12128 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4708714783191681, "model_output": 0.4709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0308, "total": 0.4709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063531 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.028316 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.018898 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01713 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.010233 } ], "others_margin": -0.030819 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6313629150390625, "model_output": 6.6314, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0045, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.781, "tackles": 1.6842, "tackles_won": 1.1039, "clearances": 2.1522, "aerial_won": 0.6999, "total_shots": 0.4731, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 28.0729, "accurate_pass": 23.7072, "duels_won": 2.9526, "total_long_balls": 1.5809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8709, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3441, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8512, "crosses_total": 2.7522, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 41.8458, "possession_lost": 8.0269, "dispossessed": 0.4231, "duels_lost": 3.3463, "aerial_lost": 1.0732, "total_contest": 1.1426, "won_contest": 0.8596, "ball_recovery": 2.1526, "challenges_lost": 0.8647, "fouls": 0.7021, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.1602, 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"before": 0.781, "after": 0.7708 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.7522, "after": 2.7426 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2587, "after": 0.2673 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7021, "after": 0.6947 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1885, "after": 0.1817 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1602, "after": 0.1544 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7708, "tackles": 1.6842, "tackles_won": 1.1, "clearances": 2.1522, "aerial_won": 0.6999, "total_shots": 0.4817, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 28.0729, "accurate_pass": 23.7072, "duels_won": 2.9526, "total_long_balls": 1.5809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8709, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3441, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8512, "crosses_total": 2.7426, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 41.8458, "possession_lost": 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7708, "tackles": 1.6842, "tackles_won": 1.1, "clearances": 2.1522, "aerial_won": 0.6999, "total_shots": 0.4817, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 28.0729, "accurate_pass": 23.7072, "duels_won": 2.9526, "total_long_balls": 1.5809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8709, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3441, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8512, "crosses_total": 2.7426, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 41.8458, "possession_lost": 8.0269, "dispossessed": 0.4231, "duels_lost": 3.3463, "aerial_lost": 1.0732, "total_contest": 1.1426, "won_contest": 0.8596, "ball_recovery": 2.1526, "challenges_lost": 0.8647, "fouls": 0.6947, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.1544, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1817, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "shots_on_target": 0.2673, "big_chances_created": 0.1362, "xgot": 0.0592, "ball_carries": 9.3526, "total_progression": 32.4065, "progressive_carries": 0.6798, "key_pass": 0.9587, "shots_off_target": 0.2144, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7708, "tackles": 1.6842, "tackles_won": 1.1, "clearances": 2.1522, "aerial_won": 0.6999, "total_shots": 0.4817, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 89.55, "total_pass": 28.0729, "accurate_pass": 23.7072, "duels_won": 2.9526, "total_long_balls": 1.5809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8709, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3441, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8512, "crosses_total": 2.7426, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 41.8458, "possession_lost": 8.0269, "dispossessed": 0.4231, "duels_lost": 3.3463, "aerial_lost": 1.0732, "total_contest": 1.1426, "won_contest": 0.8596, "ball_recovery": 2.1526, "challenges_lost": 0.8647, "fouls": 0.6947, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.1544, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1817, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "shots_on_target": 0.2673, "big_chances_created": 0.1362, "xgot": 0.0658, "ball_carries": 9.3526, 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0.126664 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.083764 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040649 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.032906 } ], "others_margin": 0.059664 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.8752245903015137, "model_output": 2.8752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5441 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2424 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2209 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2286 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2017 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 2.8752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.331321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118352 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.096893 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.091236 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.074126 } ], "others_margin": 0.018386 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5000573992729187, "model_output": 0.5001, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.5001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057511 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011527 } ], "others_margin": -0.035025 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7442851066589355, "model_output": 6.7443, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.7443, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.0447 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.025295 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014008 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01299 } ], "others_margin": -0.015352 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.086, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8181, "tackles": 1.1476, "tackles_won": 0.6474, "clearances": 5.9504, "aerial_won": 2.8557, "total_shots": 0.4967, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 87.91, "total_pass": 25.1438, "accurate_pass": 20.3229, "duels_won": 3.9841, "total_long_balls": 3.828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8934, "total_own_half_passes": 14.887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4715, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8514, "crosses_total": 0.1191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.1003, "possession_lost": 6.1943, "dispossessed": 0.0622, "duels_lost": 3.0603, "aerial_lost": 2.1707, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 1.9269, "challenges_lost": 0.625, "fouls": 0.1012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3089, "blocks": 1.9993, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 5.4829, "total_progression": 12.0851, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.019, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 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"name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2786 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0289 } ], "others": 0.0448, "total": 0.8156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.278627 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050875 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.041804 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.037099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.02888 } ], "others_margin": 0.044743 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.985676288604736, "model_output": 6.9857, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { 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"history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.194, "tackles": 1.322, "tackles_won": 0.6963, "clearances": 6.7847, "aerial_won": 4.0387, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.9857, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 32.9884, "accurate_pass": 25.785, "duels_won": 5.3913, "total_long_balls": 5.0545, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8587, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.955, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8301, "crosses_total": 0.0997, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.4926, "possession_lost": 7.6318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.653, "aerial_lost": 2.1019, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 2.8691, "challenges_lost": 0.857, "fouls": 0.7937, "fouls_drawn": 0.9388, "blocks": 1.3215, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0793, "expected_assists": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1172, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.2418, "total_progression": 19.8247, "progressive_carries": 0.0997, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.8295 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0343)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.153, "tackles": 1.322, "tackles_won": 0.6903, "clearances": 6.7847, "aerial_won": 4.0387, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.9857, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 32.9884, "accurate_pass": 25.785, "duels_won": 5.3913, "total_long_balls": 5.0545, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8587, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.955, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1818, 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"pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.153, "tackles": 1.322, "tackles_won": 0.6903, "clearances": 6.7847, "aerial_won": 4.0387, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.9857, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 32.9884, "accurate_pass": 25.785, "duels_won": 5.3913, "total_long_balls": 5.0545, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8587, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.955, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8301, "crosses_total": 0.1142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.4926, "possession_lost": 7.6318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.653, "aerial_lost": 2.1019, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 2.8691, "challenges_lost": 0.857, "fouls": 0.8201, "fouls_drawn": 0.9781, "blocks": 1.3215, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0793, "expected_assists": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1172, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.2418, "total_progression": 19.8247, "progressive_carries": 0.0997, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.8295, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.153, "tackles": 1.322, "tackles_won": 0.6903, "clearances": 6.7847, "aerial_won": 4.0387, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.9857, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 32.9884, "accurate_pass": 25.785, "duels_won": 5.3913, "total_long_balls": 5.0545, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8587, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.955, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8301, "crosses_total": 0.1142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.4926, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0793, "after": 0.0881 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.052, "after": 0.0621 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.153, "tackles": 1.322, "tackles_won": 0.6903, "clearances": 6.7847, "aerial_won": 4.0387, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.9857, "minutes": 89.09, "total_pass": 32.9884, "accurate_pass": 25.785, "duels_won": 5.3913, "total_long_balls": 5.0545, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8587, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.955, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8301, "crosses_total": 0.1142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.4926, "possession_lost": 7.6318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.653, "aerial_lost": 2.1019, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 2.8691, "challenges_lost": 0.857, "fouls": 0.8201, 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"ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.3723, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050299 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.013698 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012502 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011341 } ], "others_margin": -0.020491 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74716854095459, "model_output": 6.7472, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0389, "total": 6.7472, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020927 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015102 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012771 } ], "others_margin": -0.038889 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0211, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.155, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3396, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 0.9911, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.7293, "fouls_drawn": 0.8102, "blocks": 0.6049, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0211, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3652, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3396, "after": 1.3065 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8102, "after": 0.7783 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.155, "after": 1.1292 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9911, "after": 1.0111 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3802, "after": 0.3652 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7293, "after": 0.74 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4178, "total_progression": 48.4012, "progressive_carries": 1.0003, "key_pass": 1.3811, "shots_off_target": 0.3802, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0717, "after": 0.0856 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1292, "tackles": 2.1067, "tackles_won": 1.3065, "clearances": 3.4602, "aerial_won": 1.3193, "total_shots": 0.3802, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0455, "accurate_pass": 22.548, "duels_won": 4.3701, "total_long_balls": 4.6676, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6008, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8, "crosses_total": 1.0111, "crosses_accurate": 0.6537, "touches": 50.5181, "possession_lost": 11.2156, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.489, "aerial_lost": 0.2868, "total_contest": 1.5098, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 2.7963, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 0.74, "fouls_drawn": 0.7783, "blocks": 0.6049, "goal_rate": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1502, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1379, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0361, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.1502, "after": 3.0906 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1379, "after": 0.1329 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.342, "shots_faced": 12.7, "expected_saves": 3.1, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.342 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.342, "shots_faced": 12.7, "expected_saves": 3.1, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.342, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.7, "after": 12.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.1, "after": 3.01 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.07, "after": 1.04 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0906, "goals_prevented": -0.1529, "rating": 6.6194, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7847, "accurate_pass": 21.7148, "total_long_balls": 31.7033, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0507, "touches": 52.9084, "clearances": 0.4394, "ball_recovery": 10.359, "high_claims": 1.4053, "punches": 0.4673, "aerial_won": 0.1172, "sweeper_actions": 1.1796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8726, "saves_inside_box": 0.9256, "possession_lost": 22.0515, "duels_won": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 0.1909, "total_contest": 0.1172, "won_contest": 0.1172, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1329, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0243, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.342, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9512, "goals_prevented": -0.0577, "rating": 6.9659, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 29.0564, "accurate_pass": 14.0865, "total_long_balls": 19.3071, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3372, "touches": 40.62, "clearances": 1.6696, "ball_recovery": 8.9261, "high_claims": 1.0, "punches": 1.5806, "aerial_won": 0.3887, "sweeper_actions": 1.2721, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2721, "saves_inside_box": 2.3392, "possession_lost": 14.9699, "duels_won": 1.1662, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7775, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6997, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9718 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:04:55.355626+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 14.9699, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7251, "saves": 2.3392, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.4738, "save_contribution": 2.4271, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 10.9718 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9511821269989014, "model_output": 2.9512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1336 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.02 } ], "others": 0.0267, "total": 2.9512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.046591 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020062 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008362 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.007453 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006859 } ], "others_margin": 0.009098 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.05766338109970093, "model_output": -0.0577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0512, "total": -0.0577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.053895 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027809 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.018295 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.016071 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.012792 } ], "others_margin": -0.051177 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.96591329574585, "model_output": 6.9659, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 6.9659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.053955 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0417 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.020278 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.016869 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015404 } ], "others_margin": -0.031493 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9137, "goals_prevented": -0.0569, "rating": 6.9659, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.6874, "accurate_pass": 13.9076, "total_long_balls": 19.0619, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2821, "touches": 40.1041, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.8127, "high_claims": 0.9873, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 0.3838, "sweeper_actions": 1.2559, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2559, "saves_inside_box": 2.3095, "possession_lost": 14.7798, "duels_won": 1.1514, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7676, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8325 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 730000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.449, "goals_prevented": -0.0088, "rating": 6.9659, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.449, "goals_prevented": -0.0088, "rating": 6.9659, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.449, "goals_prevented": -0.0088, "rating": 6.9659, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3516, "combined_rank_score": 1492.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2692.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7993, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aurèle Amenda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robin Zentner", "ranking": 3511 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Diks", "ranking": 3512 }, { "player_name": "Zuriko Davitashvili", "ranking": 3513 }, { "player_name": "Grischa Prömel", "ranking": 3514 }, { "player_name": "Pol Lozano", "ranking": 3515 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Morlanes", "ranking": 3517 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Claude-Maurice", "ranking": 3518 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Cáceres", "ranking": 3519 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Caci", "ranking": 3520 }, { "player_name": "Amar Memić", "ranking": 3521 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.155021941280786, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.229, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0133, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (4 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { 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"progressive_carries": 1.1336, "key_pass": 0.3138, "shots_off_target": 0.1746 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:05:47.447103+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.899, "aerialWon": 3.7427, "totalClearance_p90": 3.899, "totalTackle": 0.2667, "defensive_actions": 1.1611 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3408767879009247, "model_output": 0.3409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4858 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 0.3409, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.831638 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.038128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.033945 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.025444 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.023739 } ], "others_margin": -0.04915 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4011653661727905, "model_output": 0.4012, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7805 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.072, "total": 0.4012, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.830791 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.093721 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.079395 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035628 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.033106 } ], "others_margin": -0.16504 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.2510870695114136, "model_output": 0.2511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4565 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 0.2511, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.77699 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.102465 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.076343 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042869 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.026389 } ], "others_margin": -0.188498 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4560891389846802, "model_output": 1.4561, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1378 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1688 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0774 } ], "others": -0.1171, "total": 1.4561, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978626 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.123228 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.084455 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05755 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.05045 } ], "others_margin": -0.077325 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8242449164390564, "model_output": 0.8242, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8227 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3531 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0366 } ], "others": -0.1484, "total": 0.8242, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.901299 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.487278 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.058843 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.038447 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.036932 } ], "others_margin": -0.16544 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17461305856704712, "model_output": 0.1746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0404, "total": 0.1746, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.21155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.033459 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026285 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.015483 } ], "others_margin": -0.040347 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7992939949035645, "model_output": 6.7993, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0224, "total": 6.7993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027957 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.02527 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.013901 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011584 } ], "others_margin": 0.02238 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3454, "tackles": 0.4065, "tackles_won": 0.2544, "clearances": 1.4755, "aerial_won": 0.8352, "total_shots": 0.1769, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9617, "possession_lost": 7.6898, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 3.54, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.2297, "won_contest": 0.2297, "ball_recovery": 2.6326, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.5134, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9039, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.6149, "total_progression": 72.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.1487, "key_pass": 0.318, "shots_off_target": 0.1769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3288, "tackles": 0.4065, "tackles_won": 0.2422, "clearances": 1.4755, "aerial_won": 0.8352, "total_shots": 0.1732, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9617, "possession_lost": 7.6898, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 3.54, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.2297, "won_contest": 0.2297, "ball_recovery": 2.6326, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.455, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9039, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.6149, "total_progression": 72.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.1487, "key_pass": 0.318, "shots_off_target": 0.1769 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5134, "after": 1.455 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3454, "after": 0.3288 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2544, "after": 0.2422 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.1905, "clearances": 1.1603, "aerial_won": 0.6568, "total_shots": 0.1391, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.16, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7864, "appearance_probability": 0.229 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.1905, "clearances": 1.1603, "aerial_won": 0.6568, "total_shots": 0.1391, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.1905, "clearances": 1.1603, "aerial_won": 0.6568, "total_shots": 0.1391, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 0.0258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.612401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.409662 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.074474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.066042 } ], "others_margin": -0.046017 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03976423293352127, "model_output": 0.0398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": 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"others_margin": 0.056721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28536364436149597, "model_output": 0.2854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2651 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 0.2854, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377676 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265068 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025418 } ], "others_margin": -0.030789 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658990383148193, "model_output": 6.659, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0588 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0319, "total": 6.659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058831 }, { "name": 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0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 1.0712 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0354, "after": 0.0277 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0382 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 1.0712, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4103, "fifa_rank": 3267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 1.0712, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "scorer_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 1.2197, "weight_share": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 1.0712, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "provider_weight": 0.0409, "squad_weight_total": 0.7398, "weight_share": 0.0553, "creation_factor": 1.0712, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.153, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.153, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi" ] } ] } } ] }, "Josh Eccles": { "player_id": 944245, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 181, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22, 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"player_name": "Evren Eren Elmalı", "ranking": 4429 }, { "player_name": "Mikey Johnston", "ranking": 4430 }, { "player_name": "Dorgeles Nene", "ranking": 4431 }, { "player_name": "Josh Laurent", "ranking": 4432 }, { "player_name": "Matěj Šín", "ranking": 4433 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.290281584086227, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5131946174584648, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5177, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€9,600,000) scaled to 22.3 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8, "assists": 0.12, "assist_rate": 0.12, "expected_assists": 0.144, "expected_goals": 0.092, "total_shots": 1.4, "total_pass": 53.0, "accurate_pass": 43.0, "ball_recovery": 5.3, "duels_won": 6.3, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0, "crosses_total": 1.4, "crosses_accurate": 0.7, "touches": 68.0, "possession_lost": 8.6, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 4.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "interceptions": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.4, "tackles": 1.9, "clearances": 0.8, "total_contest": 4.1, "won_contest": 2.3, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 1.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "goals": 0.07, 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0.013885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011349 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010906 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.009996 } ], "others_margin": -0.10074 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0255, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goals": 0.1149, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2728, "total_shots": 0.7143, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.295, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 6.5935, "accurate_pass": 5.9158, "duels_won": 2.7975, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9664, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2888, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.146, "possession_lost": 5.6278, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 6.8148, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.6867, "won_contest": 0.3986, "ball_recovery": 1.475, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3986, "fouls_drawn": 1.0255, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6867, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3986, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5543, "xgot": 0.1247, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 3.6366, "total_progression": 5.6789, "progressive_carries": 0.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.4415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0255, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1186, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.0922, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1629, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1035, "after": 0.0684 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0219, "after": 0.0156 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.0922, "offsides": 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.042, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", 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"away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2026, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0096, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025041, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4005, "combined_rank_score": 1987.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3276.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6359, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking": 4002 }, { "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking": 4003 }, { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Amondarain", "ranking": 4008 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Velázquez", "ranking": 4009 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Pizarro", "ranking": 4010 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", 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"Arsenal", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0527, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.8407, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.3201, "accuratePass": 11.065, "totalShots": 1.2092 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.060455821454524994, "model_output": 0.0605, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": 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} ], "others_margin": -0.145079 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.24021558463573456, "model_output": 0.2402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1964 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 0.2402, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.456081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.060609 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.049107 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.045041 } ], "others_margin": -0.11835 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6939674615859985, "model_output": 0.694, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4514 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0916 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.085, "total": 0.694, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 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"margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.34822 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0948 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.065728 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049809 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.044461 } ], "others_margin": 0.102778 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.394815593957901, "model_output": 0.3948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2445 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.3948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.445215 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055819 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054829 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035871 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.035015 } ], "others_margin": 0.01237 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.635948657989502, "model_output": 6.6359, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 6.6359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05714 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02417 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010864 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.006686 } ], "others_margin": -0.046452 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.2413, "total_shots": 0.6973, "expected_assists": 0.0434, "key_pass": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6359, "minutes": 24.17, "total_pass": 6.8488, "accurate_pass": 5.3836, "duels_won": 0.7726, "total_long_balls": 0.3699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6418, "crosses_total": 1.2075, "crosses_accurate": 0.2828, "touches": 12.4414, "possession_lost": 4.118, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.7362, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.6772, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 0.7182, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.0394, "tackles": 0.1029, "clearances": 0.0658, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0838, "offsides": 0.1609, "ball_carries": 2.2602, "total_progression": 3.904, "progressive_carries": 0.3446, "shots_off_target": 0.4559 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6958, "expected_assists": 0.0434, "key_pass": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6359, "minutes": 24.17, "total_pass": 6.8488, "accurate_pass": 5.3836, "duels_won": 0.7726, "total_long_balls": 0.3699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6418, "crosses_total": 1.2079, 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"shots_off_target": 0.4909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.03, "projection_minutes": 24.17, "minutes_scale": 1.0769, "appearance_probability": 0.349 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.7493, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4272, "rating": 6.6359, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, 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"substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.349, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.7493, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.4272, "rating": 6.6359, "minutes": 26.03, "total_pass": 7.3752, "accurate_pass": 5.7974, "duels_won": 0.832, "total_long_balls": 0.3983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2222, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9217, "crosses_total": 1.3007, "crosses_accurate": 0.3045, "touches": 13.3976, "possession_lost": 4.4345, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 1.8696, "aerial_lost": 0.4345, "total_contest": 0.7292, "won_contest": 0.2616, "ball_recovery": 0.7734, "challenges_lost": 0.5317, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.3599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0208, "tackles_won": 0.0437, "tackles": 0.1108, "clearances": 0.0709, "blocks": 0.1733, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0902, "offsides": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 2.4339, "total_progression": 4.204, "progressive_carries": 0.3711, "shots_off_target": 0.4909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.349, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.03, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4005, "fifa_rank": 3276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Victor Torp": { "player_id": 837011, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 178, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 1.0712, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363874, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1114, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4103, "combined_rank_score": 2091.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3267.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.659, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Torp", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adam Smith", "ranking": 4098 }, { "player_name": "Dayne St. Clair", "ranking": 4099 }, { "player_name": "Kieffer Moore", "ranking": 4100 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Giles", "ranking": 4101 }, { "player_name": "Alex Tóth", "ranking": 4102 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dro Fernández", "ranking": 4104 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Sández", "ranking": 4105 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tuanzebe", "ranking": 4106 }, { "player_name": "Abdoul Ouattara", "ranking": 4107 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 4108 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.505, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0115, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0387, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0398, "goal_rate": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.1146, "total_shots": 0.2854, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.1474, "accurate_pass": 6.1874, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9129, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3724, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8151, "crosses_total": 1.4194, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 10.2447, "possession_lost": 2.5191, "dispossessed": 0.1927, "duels_lost": 0.6462, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1927, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2267, "fouls": 0.2267, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9845, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1708 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:06:41.574598+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.2407, "totalShots": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0635, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4448159337043762, "model_output": 0.4448, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4005 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.0332, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643418 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.096083 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.074639 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.052944 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.046812 } ], "others_margin": -0.143412 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03865394741296768, "model_output": 0.0387, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": 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0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.002 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.0398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.228452 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.167807 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.075779 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054878 } ], "others_margin": 0.03586 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11455610394477844, "model_output": 0.1146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1423 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": 0.0064, "total": 0.1146, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.335327 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195143 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": 0.044311 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.04296 } ], "others_margin": 0.056721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28536364436149597, "model_output": 0.2854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2651 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 0.2854, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377676 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265068 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025418 } ], "others_margin": -0.030789 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658990383148193, "model_output": 6.659, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0588 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0319, "total": 6.659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058831 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038975 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009785 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009594 } ], "others_margin": -0.031899 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4499, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.0391, "assist_rate": 0.0391, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0402, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "total_shots": 0.2887, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8705, "crosses_total": 1.4357, "crosses_accurate": 0.5123, "touches": 10.3625, "possession_lost": 2.5481, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.2293, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1949, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0073, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1728 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4499, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1145, "total_shots": 0.2852, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8705, "crosses_total": 1.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.5123, "touches": 10.3625, "possession_lost": 2.5481, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1973, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.2313, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1949, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0073, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1728 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1958, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 23.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.88, "projection_minutes": 17.62, "minutes_scale": 1.3553, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6097, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3894, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.554399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.061501 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.040308 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.038675 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.035276 } ], "others_margin": -0.105206 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019091308116912842, "model_output": 0.0191, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 0.2877, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.081867 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078759 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.062623 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.047371 } ], "others_margin": -0.163024 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6085052490234375, "model_output": 6.6085, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.1008, "total": 6.6085, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062479 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011349 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010906 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.009996 } ], "others_margin": -0.10074 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0255, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goals": 0.1149, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2728, "total_shots": 0.7143, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.295, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 6.5935, "accurate_pass": 5.9158, "duels_won": 2.7975, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9664, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2888, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.146, "possession_lost": 5.6278, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 6.8148, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.6867, "won_contest": 0.3986, "ball_recovery": 1.475, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3986, "fouls_drawn": 1.0255, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6867, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3986, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5543, "xgot": 0.1247, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 3.6366, "total_progression": 5.6789, "progressive_carries": 0.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.4415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0255, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1186, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.1395, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.0809, xG scale 1.1111, xA scale 1.1940, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.0922, "offsides": 0.6269, "ball_carries": 4.068, "total_progression": 6.3525, "progressive_carries": 0.7581, "shots_off_target": 0.4939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1629, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0809, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6538, "team_expected_assists": 0.7807, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1111, "xa_scale": 1.194, "opponent_lambda": 1.297, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1035, "after": 0.0684 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0219, "after": 0.0156 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6201, "xgot": 0.0922, "offsides": 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.7991, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.6085, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 7.3756, "accurate_pass": 6.6175, "duels_won": 3.1293, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4369, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6789, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2985, "possession_lost": 6.2954, "dispossessed": 1.1362, "duels_lost": 7.6232, "aerial_lost": 4.9919, "total_contest": 0.7682, "won_contest": 0.4459, "ball_recovery": 1.65, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4459, "fouls_drawn": 1.1471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7682, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4459, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0843, "tackles": 2.273, "tackles_won": 1.5398, "clearances": 2.5137, "aerial_won": 0.8207, "total_shots": 0.6233, "rating": 6.7354, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 44.762, "accurate_pass": 37.1394, "duels_won": 4.7967, "total_long_balls": 3.0583, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4888, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3066, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.174, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9655, "crosses_total": 3.5301, "crosses_accurate": 0.5165, "touches": 70.1861, "possession_lost": 15.16, "dispossessed": 0.512, "duels_lost": 4.7143, "aerial_lost": 0.9363, "total_contest": 1.3819, "won_contest": 0.6594, "ball_recovery": 4.2314, "challenges_lost": 1.7168, "fouls": 0.8352, "fouls_drawn": 0.6986, "blocks": 0.3572, "goals": 0.0497, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1663 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1388 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0568 } ], "others": -0.1167, "total": 1.5331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.093748 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057283 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.035028 } ], "others_margin": -0.073296 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5523774027824402, "model_output": 0.5524, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0308, "total": 0.5524, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06142 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.036944 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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"squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7698, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 }, { "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking": 3172 }, { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4719 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.297 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2384 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0956 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0923 } ], "others": -0.0254, "total": 3.3395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129066 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079275 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.068523 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027061 } ], "others_margin": -0.007539 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1196705102920532, "model_output": 1.1197, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2919 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1442 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0329 } ], "others": -0.0681, "total": 1.1197, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.236612 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12392 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.034614 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034485 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.028085 } ], "others_margin": -0.059075 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5300911664962769, "model_output": 0.5301, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.5301, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021936 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010036 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008065 } ], "others_margin": -0.020156 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.76981782913208, "model_output": 6.7698, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 6.7698, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015959 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008058 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007466 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.006015 } ], "others_margin": -0.019433 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9523, "tackles": 1.5337, "tackles_won": 0.9402, "clearances": 3.3382, "aerial_won": 1.1192, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 86.01, "total_pass": 48.2628, "accurate_pass": 41.0677, "duels_won": 4.0767, "total_long_balls": 3.5596, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0801, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.1048, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9629, "crosses_total": 1.884, "crosses_accurate": 0.358, "touches": 69.3701, "possession_lost": 10.7903, "dispossessed": 0.2068, "duels_lost": 3.7554, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 1.1763, "won_contest": 0.786, "ball_recovery": 3.32, "challenges_lost": 0.2526, "fouls": 1.2111, "fouls_drawn": 0.7704, "blocks": 0.5709, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8248, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0453, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1616, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1616 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1616, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1616, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.0, "after": 11.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.69, "after": 2.79 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.93, "after": 0.96 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1616, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1616, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Taiwo Awoniyi, Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3663, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8263, "goals_prevented": -0.0072, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1807, "accurate_pass": 31.3961, "total_long_balls": 12.1244, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7104, "touches": 48.9155, "clearances": 0.9448, "ball_recovery": 8.6917, "high_claims": 0.6329, "punches": 0.4457, "aerial_won": 0.2379, "sweeper_actions": 1.4592, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4592, "saves_inside_box": 1.5127, "possession_lost": 8.831, "duels_won": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.0058, 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"runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1066, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Gonzalo García" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sander Berge": { "player_id": 793167, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 195, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0871, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.251, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.591, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0774, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.07, "finishing_factor": 1.0873, "creation_factor": 1.0875, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363885, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "expected_assists": 0.0882, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 94, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1896, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "expected_assists": 0.021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1012, "total_shots": 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"contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0838, "total": 0.8715, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15054 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088559 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062212 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021573 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019745 } ], "others_margin": -0.083807 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0561113357543945, "model_output": 7.0561, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 7.0561, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032836 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028985 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027036 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020863 } ], "others_margin": -0.000839 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0768, "assists": 0.0886, "assist_rate": 0.0886, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0781, "shots_on_target": 0.3077, "total_shots": 0.8766, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 0.9697, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5788, "tackles_won": 0.8444, "tackles": 1.3426, "clearances": 1.4801, "total_contest": 0.5326, "won_contest": 0.119, "challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9457, "fouls_drawn": 0.3303, "blocks": 0.3903, "big_chances_created": 0.0885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0637, "xgot": 0.0736, "ball_carries": 22.8401, "total_progression": 48.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.1337, "shots_off_target": 0.5689 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0078)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0768, "assists": 0.0879, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3053, "total_shots": 0.874, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 0.9697, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, "tackles_won": 0.8378, "tackles": 1.3426, "clearances": 1.4801, "total_contest": 0.5326, "won_contest": 0.119, "challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9426, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.3903, "big_chances_created": 0.0885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0637, "xgot": 0.0736, "ball_carries": 22.8401, "total_progression": 48.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.1337, "shots_off_target": 0.5689 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0078, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9333, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8444, "after": 0.8378 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0768, "assists": 0.0879, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3053, "total_shots": 0.8742, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 0.9697, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, "tackles_won": 0.8378, "tackles": 1.3426, "clearances": 1.4801, "total_contest": 0.5326, "won_contest": 0.119, "challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9426, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.3903, "big_chances_created": 0.0885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0637, "xgot": 0.0736, "ball_carries": 22.8401, "total_progression": 48.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.1337, "shots_off_target": 0.5689 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0768, "assists": 0.0879, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.3819, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, "tackles_won": 0.8378, "tackles": 1.3426, "clearances": 1.4801, "total_contest": 0.5326, "won_contest": 0.119, "challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9426, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.3903, "big_chances_created": 0.0885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0797, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 22.8401, "total_progression": 48.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.1337, "shots_off_target": 0.7117, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.591, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.591, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.251, "skill_edge": 0.1107, "height_edge": 0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.0852 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9697, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8742, "after": 1.0936 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5689, "after": 0.7117 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3053, "after": 0.3819 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0775, "after": 0.097 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0736, "after": 0.0921 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0681, "after": 0.0852 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0637, "after": 0.0797 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3819, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, 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"challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9426, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.3903, "big_chances_created": 0.0885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0797, "xgot": 0.0871, "ball_carries": 22.8401, "total_progression": 48.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.1337, "shots_off_target": 0.7117, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.591, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0873, "creation_factor": 1.0875 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3819, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, "tackles_won": 0.8378, "tackles": 1.3426, "clearances": 1.4801, "total_contest": 0.5326, "won_contest": 0.119, "challenges_lost": 0.4887, "fouls": 0.9426, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3819, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6753, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0193, "crosses_total": 0.1925, "crosses_accurate": 0.0078, "touches": 69.884, "possession_lost": 8.6422, "dispossessed": 0.6241, "duels_lost": 3.327, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8548, "interceptions": 0.5743, "tackles_won": 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"goal_probability": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.097, "scorer_weight": 0.0876, "squad_weight_total": 1.3663, "weight_share": 0.0641, "finishing_factor": 1.0873, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0879, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3819, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 59.751, "accurate_pass": 53.6946, "duels_won": 2.7616, "total_long_balls": 2.5661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5325, "total_own_half_passes": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 7.0384, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.079818 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.056551 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03086 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030077 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020081 } ], "others_margin": -0.035056 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0433, "shots_on_target": 0.1282, "total_shots": 0.5539, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.1988, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.1519, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8767, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4441, "fouls_drawn": 0.782, "blocks": 1.5009, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5644, "total_progression": 70.5527, "progressive_carries": 1.9603, "shots_off_target": 0.4257 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "assists": 0.058, "assist_rate": 0.058, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.127, "total_shots": 0.5814, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.1519, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4401, "fouls_drawn": 0.7749, "blocks": 1.5009, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5644, "total_progression": 70.5527, "progressive_carries": 1.9603, "shots_off_target": 0.4257 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9404, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5539, "after": 0.5814 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1988, "after": 0.214 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8767, "after": 0.8858 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.782, "after": 0.7749 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "assists": 0.058, "assist_rate": 0.058, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.127, "total_shots": 0.5814, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.1519, 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1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4401, "fouls_drawn": 0.7749, "blocks": 1.5009, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5644, "total_progression": 70.5527, "progressive_carries": 1.9603, "shots_off_target": 0.5175, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2156, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2156, "skill_edge": 0.1027, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.704, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.0497 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.1519, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5814, "after": 0.7067 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4257, "after": 0.5175 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.127, "after": 0.1544 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0429, "after": 0.0521 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0409, "after": 0.0497 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1544, "total_shots": 0.7067, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4401, "fouls_drawn": 0.7749, "blocks": 1.5009, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5644, "total_progression": 70.5527, "progressive_carries": 1.9603, "shots_off_target": 0.5175, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2156, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1544, "total_shots": 0.7067, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4401, "fouls_drawn": 0.7749, "blocks": 1.5009, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.5644, "total_progression": 70.5527, "progressive_carries": 1.9603, "shots_off_target": 0.5175, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2156, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0241, "creation_factor": 0.916 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1544, "total_shots": 0.7067, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 1.1332, "total_contest": 1.6869, "won_contest": 0.7453, "challenges_lost": 1.0876, "fouls": 0.4401, "fouls_drawn": 0.7749, "blocks": 1.5009, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8094, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1544, "total_shots": 0.7067, "rating": 7.0384, "minutes": 84.64, "total_pass": 53.9175, "accurate_pass": 49.6997, "duels_won": 4.5389, "total_long_balls": 1.9347, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3086, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3911, "crosses_total": 0.214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2755, "possession_lost": 7.8117, "dispossessed": 0.678, "duels_lost": 3.9477, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "interceptions": 1.8857, "tackles_won": 0.8858, "tackles": 1.8597, "clearances": 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"step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1538, "goals": 0.1945, "goal_rate": 0.1945, "shots_on_target": 0.5277, "total_shots": 1.4749, "expected_assists": 0.1192, "key_pass": 1.3455, "rating": 6.9138, "minutes": 72.41, "total_pass": 24.5857, "accurate_pass": 20.4867, "duels_won": 3.9137, "total_long_balls": 0.5236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.022, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4563, "crosses_total": 2.5239, "crosses_accurate": 0.6552, "touches": 40.7696, "possession_lost": 10.6798, "dispossessed": 0.929, "duels_lost": 3.6093, "aerial_lost": 0.616, "total_contest": 2.39, "won_contest": 0.9165, "ball_recovery": 3.2325, "challenges_lost": 0.4005, "fouls": 0.2249, "fouls_drawn": 1.3318, "assists": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.01, "interceptions": 0.6398, "tackles_won": 0.5394, "tackles": 1.4135, "clearances": 0.0315, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, 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2.001347780227661, "model_output": 2.0013, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4556 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1751 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0476 } ], "others": 0.2025, "total": 2.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.455577 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.175094 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.075187 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048353 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0096, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6296, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.1784, "goals": 0.2167, "goal_rate": 0.2167, "shots_on_target": 0.8619, "total_shots": 2.0206, "rating": 7.0115, "minutes": 77.06, "total_pass": 29.341, "accurate_pass": 24.3968, "duels_won": 4.0313, "total_long_balls": 1.1641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.51, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3303, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0665, "crosses_total": 1.3261, "crosses_accurate": 0.1558, "touches": 42.7438, "possession_lost": 9.8231, "dispossessed": 0.7715, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_won": 0.1325, "aerial_lost": 0.4821, "interceptions": 0.1605, "tackles_won": 0.6089, "tackles": 0.9632, "clearances": 0.5428, "total_contest": 2.5481, "won_contest": 1.1329, "challenges_lost": 0.3908, "fouls": 0.8241, "fouls_drawn": 1.8028, "blocks": 0.16, "big_chances_created": 0.3605, "big_chances_missed": 0.3849, "xgot": 0.2268, "ball_carries": 19.0631, "total_progression": 72.4162, "progressive_carries": 3.6937, "shots_off_target": 1.1587 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0096, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6296, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.1784, "goals": 0.2167, "goal_rate": 0.2167, "shots_on_target": 0.8619, "total_shots": 2.0206, "rating": 7.0115, "minutes": 77.06, "total_pass": 29.341, "accurate_pass": 24.3968, "duels_won": 4.0313, "total_long_balls": 1.1641, 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"model_output": 0.8511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2171 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.086, "total": 0.8511, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276886 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071985 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3301, "goals": 0.3022, "goal_rate": 0.3022, "shots_on_target": 0.8987, "total_shots": 2.093, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "key_pass": 0.8588, "rating": 6.7185, "minutes": 82.22, "total_pass": 18.9203, "accurate_pass": 15.2584, "duels_won": 3.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.4169, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1389, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1155, "crosses_total": 0.4893, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8431, "possession_lost": 8.5575, "dispossessed": 0.6101, "duels_lost": 5.819, "aerial_lost": 2.5593, "total_contest": 1.5514, "won_contest": 0.5403, "ball_recovery": 1.4353, "challenges_lost": 0.6247, "fouls": 1.0137, "fouls_drawn": 0.3708, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1449, "tackles_won": 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0.0343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0312 } ], "others": 0.167, "total": 7.3979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.172894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09356 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04278 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.034252 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031203 } ], "others_margin": 0.167126 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2215, "assists": 0.1336, "assist_rate": 0.1336, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "goals": 0.217, "goal_rate": 0.217, "shots_on_target": 0.67, "total_shots": 2.0182, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3923, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 0.0833, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3538, "tackles_won": 0.6812, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2737, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.274, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.3482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2215, "assists": 0.1322, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "goals": 0.2147, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "shots_on_target": 0.6629, "total_shots": 2.0018, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 0.0833, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.274, "xgot": 0.0921, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.3482 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.924, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.3923, "after": 4.3703 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0182, "after": 2.0018 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3538, "after": 0.3647 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.67, "after": 0.6629 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2215, "assists": 0.1322, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "goals": 0.2147, "goal_rate": 0.2147, "shots_on_target": 0.6629, "total_shots": 2.0111, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, 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"accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0905, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.325, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "skill_edge": -0.0437, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.7379, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "market_value": 23000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7379 } ], "xg_override": 0.1571 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0833, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0111, "after": 1.9765 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3482, "after": 1.325 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6629, "after": 0.6515 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2215, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goal_rate": 0.211, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6515, "total_shots": 1.9765, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0905, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.325, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.211, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6515, "total_shots": 1.9765, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0856, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.325, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1571, "after": 0.1485 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2215, "after": 0.2094 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.211, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6515, "total_shots": 1.9765, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.225, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.211, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6515, "total_shots": 1.9765, "rating": 7.3979, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 55.8003, "accurate_pass": 49.8364, "duels_won": 2.2524, "total_long_balls": 4.0954, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3468, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0867, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7498, "crosses_total": 4.3703, "crosses_accurate": 1.7449, "touches": 70.525, "possession_lost": 11.9818, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.985, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1273, "interceptions": 0.3647, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.4759, "total_contest": 1.4651, "won_contest": 0.8468, "challenges_lost": 0.2155, "fouls": 0.2757, "fouls_drawn": 0.3866, "blocks": 0.0489, "big_chances_created": 0.7846, "big_chances_missed": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0856, "ball_carries": 24.3244, "total_progression": 83.9403, "progressive_carries": 2.2726, "shots_off_target": 1.325, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.138, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, 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"ranking": 1038 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 1039 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", 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], "others_margin": 0.037786 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.47804343700408936, "model_output": 0.478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7617 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0656, "total": 0.478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.800163 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051277 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.033462 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.024709 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024388 } ], "others_margin": -0.128353 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3098628520965576, "model_output": 0.3099, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4358 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.3099, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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1.9994, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.949818 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.245295 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.085658 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050139 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042827 } ], "others_margin": -0.012391 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9883418679237366, "model_output": 0.9883, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7976 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2027 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0553 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": 0.0415, "total": 0.9883, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.857571 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.296403 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.070384 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.063192 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.047189 } ], "others_margin": 0.04286 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2312099188566208, "model_output": 0.2312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2406 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.2312, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.240602 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.038041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.028408 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.013079 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.010263 } ], "others_margin": -0.015577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.790297031402588, "model_output": 6.7903, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0825 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0459, "total": 6.7903, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082476 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.017678 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017209 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015547 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013921 } ], "others_margin": 0.045879 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5232, "tackles": 0.4804, "tackles_won": 0.3114, "clearances": 2.0094, "aerial_won": 0.9933, "total_shots": 0.2324, "rating": 6.7903, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "crosses_total": 0.2138, "crosses_accurate": 0.0444, "touches": 72.0959, "possession_lost": 8.7703, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2.1112, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0537, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 2.9207, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7938, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.414, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "big_chances_created": 0.0205, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 19.4522, "total_progression": 67.4058, "progressive_carries": 0.8904, "key_pass": 0.4802, "shots_off_target": 0.158 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5213, "tackles": 0.4804, "tackles_won": 0.3098, "clearances": 2.0094, "aerial_won": 0.9933, "total_shots": 0.2312, "rating": 6.7903, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0444, "touches": 72.0959, "possession_lost": 8.7703, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2.1112, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0537, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 2.9207, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7923, "fouls_drawn": 0.4526, "blocks": 0.414, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.074, "big_chances_created": 0.0205, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 19.4522, "total_progression": 67.4058, "progressive_carries": 0.8904, "key_pass": 0.4802, "shots_off_target": 0.158 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1703, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.3 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4889, "tackles": 0.4506, "tackles_won": 0.2906, "clearances": 1.8845, "aerial_won": 0.9316, "total_shots": 0.2176, "rating": 6.7903, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1776, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", 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"importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0586 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.307 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0816 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0523 } ], "others": -0.1186, "total": 0.7452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.91889 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.254455 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.080108 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065316 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.058824 } ], "others_margin": -0.147609 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.309447705745697, "model_output": 0.3094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7696 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2143 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": 0.0126, "total": 0.3094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.810957 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.427944 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.109737 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.108456 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.083385 } ], "others_margin": 0.041697 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6066142916679382, "model_output": 0.6066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2107 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1941 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.068, "total": 0.6066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.210731 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.194097 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022751 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.02138 } ], "others_margin": 0.068072 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.692570686340332, "model_output": 6.6926, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0453 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": -0.0895, "total": 6.6926, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045324 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.037271 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027666 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.023328 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.020667 } ], "others_margin": -0.089539 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0519, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5249, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3972, "tackles": 0.688, "tackles_won": 0.4665, "clearances": 0.7887, "aerial_won": 0.3275, "total_shots": 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"bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.618, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3121, "combined_rank_score": 1081.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 744.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6676, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6874, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 }, { "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking": 3117 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking": 3126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0411, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.077936 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050043 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030879 } ], "others_margin": -0.124108 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.16029050946235657, "model_output": 0.1603, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1448 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.1603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17772 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101985 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.067551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025594 } ], "others_margin": -0.089059 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.45911508798599243, "model_output": 0.4591, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3958 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1766 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 0.4591, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.176587 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057028 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022971 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.021937 } ], "others_margin": -0.021401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.68735408782959, "model_output": 6.6874, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 6.6874, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069335 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037745 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027015 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008497 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007983 } ], "others_margin": -0.018123 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.614)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1609, "total_shots": 0.4608, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0574, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2164, "tackles_won": 0.234, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1677, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2999 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18300000, "quality_factor": 0.614, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1607, "total_shots": 0.4615, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0573, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2162, "tackles_won": 0.2338, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2999 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1969, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.309, "total_shots": 0.8521, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.4464, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1754, "tackles_won": 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0.8228614926338196, "model_output": 0.8229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": 0.0202, "total": 0.8229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.600855 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.08592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066642 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.036651 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.03309 } ], "others_margin": 0.020127 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.006602001376450062, "model_output": 0.0066, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478149 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.329423 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.271482 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.17068 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.097531 } ], "others_margin": -0.931155 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.20955617725849152, "model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2686 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0932, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502158 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.095054 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087408 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.083011 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.042789 } ], "others_margin": -0.367357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.606597900390625, "model_output": 6.6066, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 6.6066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049721 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024029 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010685 } ], "others_margin": -0.053313 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "shots_on_target": 0.2899, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0.211, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.51, "total_pass": 3.1175, "accurate_pass": 1.5231, "duels_won": 2.9795, "total_long_balls": 0.0804, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0321, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0874, "crosses_total": 0.0523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5564, "possession_lost": 3.3104, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.1992, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1696, "won_contest": 0.0523, "ball_recovery": 0.1378, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2082, "fouls_drawn": 0.3281, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1339, 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"goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.71, "projection_minutes": 16.51, "minutes_scale": 1.0121, "appearance_probability": 0.736 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.736 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.101, "after": 0.0703 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, 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13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010645 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009696 } ], "others_margin": -0.066203 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.309, "total_shots": 0.8521, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.4464, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1754, "tackles_won": 0.3472, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.5431 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0616, "goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.3084, "total_shots": 0.8506, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9694, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.499, "fouls_drawn": 0.4456, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1751, "tackles_won": 0.3466, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.5431 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.232, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.082, "goal_rate": 0.082, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 20.88, "minutes_scale": 0.9085, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.082, "goal_rate": 0.082, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.082, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.082, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0752, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2453, "creation_factor": 0.854 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.056, "after": 0.0391 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0322, "after": 0.0225 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.082, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0752, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2453, "creation_factor": 0.854, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3248, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.082, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0752, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2453, "creation_factor": 0.854, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.082, "scorer_weight": 0.0487, "squad_weight_total": 1.3663, "weight_share": 0.0356, "finishing_factor": 1.2453, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.082, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.7736, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3429, "rating": 6.6419, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0752, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.4934, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "finishing_factor": 1.2453, "creation_factor": 0.854, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "provider_weight": 0.0192, "squad_weight_total": 0.758, "weight_share": 0.0254, "creation_factor": 0.854, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Iwobi", "weight": 0.1675, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1675, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1066, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Gonzalo García" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "player_id": 1015256, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 184, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0164, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1592, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", 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"76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3299, "combined_rank_score": 1249.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6066, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 3301 }, { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 3303 }, { "player_name": "Kaiki", "ranking": 3304 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ 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0.8228614926338196, "model_output": 0.8229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": 0.0202, "total": 0.8229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.600855 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.08592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066642 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.036651 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.03309 } ], "others_margin": 0.020127 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.006602001376450062, "model_output": 0.0066, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478149 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.329423 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.271482 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.17068 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.097531 } ], "others_margin": -0.931155 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.20955617725849152, "model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2686 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0932, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502158 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.095054 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087408 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.083011 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.042789 } ], "others_margin": -0.367357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.606597900390625, "model_output": 6.6066, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 6.6066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049721 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024029 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010685 } ], "others_margin": -0.053313 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "shots_on_target": 0.2899, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0.211, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.51, "total_pass": 3.1175, "accurate_pass": 1.5231, "duels_won": 2.9795, "total_long_balls": 0.0804, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0321, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0874, "crosses_total": 0.0523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5564, "possession_lost": 3.3104, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.1992, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1696, "won_contest": 0.0523, "ball_recovery": 0.1378, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2082, "fouls_drawn": 0.3281, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1339, "tackles": 0.2227, "clearances": 0.5858, "blocks": 0.0642, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.0948, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0338, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.291, "total_shots": 0.8293, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0.211, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.51, "total_pass": 3.1175, "accurate_pass": 1.5231, "duels_won": 2.9795, "total_long_balls": 0.0804, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0321, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0874, "crosses_total": 0.0523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5564, "possession_lost": 3.3104, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.1992, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1696, "won_contest": 0.0523, "ball_recovery": 0.1378, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2081, "fouls_drawn": 0.3279, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1338, "tackles": 0.2227, "clearances": 0.5858, "blocks": 0.0642, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.0948, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0338, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1834, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.5 to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.71, "projection_minutes": 16.51, "minutes_scale": 1.0121, "appearance_probability": 0.736 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.736 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.101, "after": 0.0703 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3299, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "scorer_weight": 0.0879, "squad_weight_total": 1.3663, "weight_share": 0.0643, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8398, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1553, "accurate_pass": 1.5416, "duels_won": 3.0156, "total_long_balls": 0.0814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0325, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0529, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6479, "possession_lost": 3.3505, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.2258, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1717, "won_contest": 0.0529, "ball_recovery": 0.1395, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2106, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1354, "tackles": 0.2254, "clearances": 0.5929, "blocks": 0.065, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "offsides": 0.0615, "ball_carries": 1.1081, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.5452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8818, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0041, "squad_weight_total": 0.758, "weight_share": 0.0055, "creation_factor": 0.8818, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Iwobi", "weight": 0.1675, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1675, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1066, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Gonzalo García" ] } ] } } ] }, "Emile Smith Rowe": { "player_id": 867445, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 18300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"contribution": -0.3958 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1766 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 0.4591, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.176587 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057028 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022971 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.021937 } ], "others_margin": -0.021401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.68735408782959, "model_output": 6.6874, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 6.6874, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069335 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037745 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027015 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008497 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007983 } ], "others_margin": -0.018123 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.614)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1609, "total_shots": 0.4608, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0574, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2164, "tackles_won": 0.234, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1677, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2999 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18300000, "quality_factor": 0.614, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1607, "total_shots": 0.4615, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0573, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2162, "tackles_won": 0.2338, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2999 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1969, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 18.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0411, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.45, "projection_minutes": 17.72, "minutes_scale": 1.0412, "appearance_probability": 0.706 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0411, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0411, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3718, xG scale 0.9454, xA scale 0.9454, team xA 0.89 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0198, "creation_factor": 1.1794 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.297, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3718, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9435, "team_expected_assists": 0.8921, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9454, "xa_scale": 0.9454, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.706 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0411, "after": 0.0274 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0172 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0198, "creation_factor": 1.1794, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3121, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0198, "creation_factor": 1.1794, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "scorer_weight": 0.0279, "squad_weight_total": 1.3663, "weight_share": 0.0205, "finishing_factor": 1.0198, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.312, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.312, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2158 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.361, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4805, "rating": 6.6874, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3123, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.348, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 1.0198, "creation_factor": 1.1794, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "provider_weight": 0.0203, "squad_weight_total": 0.758, "weight_share": 0.0268, "creation_factor": 1.1794, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Iwobi", "weight": 0.1675, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1675, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1066, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Gonzalo García" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 0.89, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 535, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.97, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.1918, "xg_multiplier": 0.971, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (LW) is evenly matched against David Affengruber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1336, "xg_multiplier": 0.9352, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brandon Thomas-Asante (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2663, "xg_multiplier": 0.8857, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Taiwo Awoniyi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.266 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1769, "xg_multiplier": 0.9283, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ephron Mason-Clark (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.0257, "xg_multiplier": 0.749, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.0344, "xg_multiplier": 0.9055, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.1571, "xg_multiplier": 0.9828, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "RB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (LW) is evenly matched against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Josh King", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.562, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.1949, "xg_multiplier": 1.0926, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 }, { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Josh King (CAM) is slightly favored against Matt Grimes and Caleb Yirenkyi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €14M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "xg_contribution": 0.3547, "xg_multiplier": 1.0745, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 }, { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is slightly favored against Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.355 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.194, "xg_contribution": 0.1524, "xg_multiplier": 0.991, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 }, { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (ST) is evenly matched against Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.152 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.591, "xg_contribution": 0.0852, "xg_multiplier": 1.251, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.409 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Matt Grimes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Shea Charles", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.567, "xg_contribution": 0.0497, "xg_multiplier": 1.2156, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.433 } ], "duel_analysis": "Shea Charles (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Matt Grimes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.588, "away_midfield_power": 0.72, "home_creative_power": 0.564, "away_creative_power": 0.698, "home_defensive_power": 0.478, "away_defensive_power": 0.576, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.45, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sander Berge", "Shea Charles", "Josh King", "Alex Iwobi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Caleb Yirenkyi vs Josh King", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.024 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.297, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Shea Charles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brandon Thomas-Asante": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Taiwo Awoniyi": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Josh King" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Taiwo Awoniyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Taiwo Awoniyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Josh King": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Shea Charles": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Brandon Thomas-Asante" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Caleb Yirenkyi vs Josh King will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 0.99. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.092, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0101, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9438, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.024, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5736, "away_avg_quality": 0.6718, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0982, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5065, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3832, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6102, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1728, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0951, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0553, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8287, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.984 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.988, "result": 0.9722 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9722 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.118 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9372, "result": 1.0478 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.998, "result": 1.0457 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9438, "result": 0.987 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.092, "result": 1.079 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.079, "result": 1.079, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1728, "factor": 0.9447, "pre": 1.079, "result": 1.0193 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0193 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1426, "result": 1.1616 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.1616 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1616, "result": 1.162, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0333, "pre": 1.162, "result": 1.2007, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.201 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.201 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.201, "result": 1.201, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.201 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.994, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.108 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.024, "result": 1.1346 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1346 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1346 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.004, "result": 1.1391 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.0563 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9605, "result": 1.0146 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0101, "result": 1.0246 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0246, "result": 1.0246, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1728, "factor": 1.0951, "pre": 1.0246, "result": 1.122 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.122 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.342 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.342 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.342, "result": 1.342, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9667, "pre": 1.342, "result": 1.2973, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.297 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.297 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.297, "result": 1.297, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.297 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1426, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.201, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.297, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1616, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.342, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.201, "final_away_lambda": 1.297 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9372, "attack_index": 0.897, "defense_concede_index": 0.945, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.3, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.37, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.004, "attack_index": 0.841, "defense_concede_index": 1.203, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.22, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.74, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Coventry vs Fulham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.162, Away 1.342). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.201, Away 1.297 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.297, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.162, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.342 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:31:07Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }