{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Man City", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1027, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0311, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1027, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1532, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1027 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0914 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0896 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0798 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0781 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0302, "0-1": 0.0781, "0-2": 0.1027, "0-3": 0.0896, "0-4": 0.0587, "0-5": 0.0307, "0-6": 0.0134, "0-7": 0.005, "0-8": 0.0016, "1-0": 0.0264, "1-1": 0.0701, "1-2": 0.0914, "1-3": 0.0798, "1-4": 0.0522, "1-5": 0.0274, "1-6": 0.0119, "1-7": 0.0045, "1-8": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0119, "2-1": 0.0311, "2-2": 0.0407, "2-3": 0.0355, "2-4": 0.0232, "2-5": 0.0122, "2-6": 0.0053, "2-7": 0.002, "2-8": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0035, "3-1": 0.0092, "3-2": 0.0121, "3-3": 0.0105, "3-4": 0.0069, "3-5": 0.0036, "3-6": 0.0016, "3-7": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0008, "4-1": 0.002, "4-2": 0.0027, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0015, "4-5": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1039, "draw": 0.1532, "away_win": 0.7429 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6807, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3193, "btts_yes": 0.5467, "btts_no": 0.4533, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0729, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4107 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.04 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.03, "MCR": 7.03, "ATR": 7.36, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Aston Villa vs Man City. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Aston Villa 4W-1D-5L vs Man City over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Boubacar Kamara vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 1.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.8, "home_lambda": 0.89, "away_lambda": 2.619, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9929, "away_multiplier": 1.0071 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-2", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1027, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1039, "draw": 0.1532, "away_win": 0.7429 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7429, "fair_spread": -1.729, "fair_total": 3.509, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 0.89, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 2.619, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6807, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5467, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0729, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4107, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.2597, "probability": 0.2287, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 0.9851, "probability": 0.6266, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ian Maatsen (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.0924, "probability": 0.0883, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jérémy Doku (Man City)", "estimate": 0.3351, "probability": 0.2847, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.509, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 1003, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7429, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.73 goals and fair total 3.51.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Aston Villa must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Johan Manzambi, Matteo Ruggeri, Ollie Watkins.", "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Matheus Nunes, Tijjani Reijnders.", "Assist usage should flow through Jérémy Doku; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.75 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Aston Villa is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Aston Villa wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Aston Villa": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Victor Lindelöf": { "player_id": 143334, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 187, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0497, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 85, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8967, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 48, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 42, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 13, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4366, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0843, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 110, "accurate_pass": 105, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3087, "combined_rank_score": 1054.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1410.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8079, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 }, { "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking": 3083 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 }, { "player_name": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "ranking": 3089 }, { "player_name": "Luis Romo", "ranking": 3090 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Sessegnon", "ranking": 3091 }, { "player_name": "Albian Hajdari", "ranking": 3092 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 24, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 24 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7933, "tackles": 0.8225, "tackles_won": 0.5498, "clearances": 6.3027, "aerial_won": 1.8049, "total_shots": 0.3668, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.6729, "accurate_pass": 49.2546, "duels_won": 1.3245, "total_long_balls": 3.2431, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3285, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1449, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.2642, "possession_lost": 4.9552, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 1.4773, "aerial_lost": 1.1364, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6169, "challenges_lost": 0.0803, "fouls": 0.1523, "fouls_drawn": 0.0367, "blocks": 0.4705, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.01, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0973, "big_chances_created": 0.0225, "xgot": 0.0726, "ball_carries": 22.9882, "total_progression": 85.3996, "progressive_carries": 0.6675, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.2695 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1531, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1301, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0577, "rating": 5.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0355, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.4368, "aerialWon": 0.993, "totalClearance_p90": 5.6797, "totalTackle": 0.211, "defensive_actions": 0.6565 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.793292760848999, "model_output": 0.7933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.11 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 0.7933, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120344 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.0976 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029043 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028344 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.027255 } ], "others_margin": -0.019219 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8225424289703369, "model_output": 0.8225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1605 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1547 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1331 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0681 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0605 } ], "others": -0.2931, "total": 0.8225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.123386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119134 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.101609 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.056289 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.052834 } ], "others_margin": -0.30467 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5498074889183044, "model_output": 0.5498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0782 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": -0.1159, "total": 0.5498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.144248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108906 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.100725 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.062295 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040234 } ], "others_margin": -0.19119 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.30266809463501, "model_output": 6.3027, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.6904 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5652 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.5008 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3374 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.1582 } ], "others": 0.6256, "total": 6.3027, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.183633 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101654 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.063081 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.028262 } ], "others_margin": 0.104527 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8049124479293823, "model_output": 1.8049, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1519 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1205 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1216 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0666 } ], "others": 0.1664, "total": 1.8049, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.162148 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121275 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.086745 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080522 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.041509 } ], "others_margin": 0.096793 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3667680621147156, "model_output": 0.3668, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1148 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0197, "total": 0.3668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.114809 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050595 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014754 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.014002 } ], "others_margin": -0.019838 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.807854652404785, "model_output": 6.8079, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.032, "total": 6.8079, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02903 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022246 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017297 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.016665 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.012722 } ], "others_margin": 0.031925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7915, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5485, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.366, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1519, "fouls_drawn": 0.0366, "blocks": 0.4694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.01, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0971, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0724, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0149)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3605, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0724, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0149, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.966, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7915, "after": 0.7797 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5485, "after": 0.5403 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.366, "after": 0.3605 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0724, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0724, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0724, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0497, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8967 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0497, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8967, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3087, "fifa_rank": 1410.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0497, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8967, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0273, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0291, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.8207, "tackles_won": 0.5403, "clearances": 6.2882, "aerial_won": 1.8008, "total_shots": 0.3645, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 53.5495, "accurate_pass": 49.1413, "duels_won": 1.3215, "total_long_balls": 3.2356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3254, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.121, "possession_lost": 4.9438, "dispossessed": 0.1081, "duels_lost": 1.4739, "aerial_lost": 1.1338, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6132, "challenges_lost": 0.0801, "fouls": 0.1496, "fouls_drawn": 0.0361, "blocks": 0.4694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "big_chances_created": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0497, "ball_carries": 22.9353, "total_progression": 85.2032, "progressive_carries": 0.666, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.2689, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8967, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "provider_weight": 0.0115, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0218, "creation_factor": 0.8967, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Matty Cash": { "player_id": 833956, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 185, "market_value": 19800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2025, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 57, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1468, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 894, "combined_rank_score": 419.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 502.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7355, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Victor Stina", "ranking": 889 }, { "player_name": "Balde", "ranking": 890 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking": 896 }, { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 }, { "player_name": "Do-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 899 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 167.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.54, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8665, "tackles": 1.8529, "tackles_won": 1.223, "clearances": 2.7605, "aerial_won": 0.7902, "total_shots": 0.4718, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.2561, "accurate_pass": 34.4541, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 3.4994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1794, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5464, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9076, "crosses_total": 2.4824, "crosses_accurate": 0.4896, "touches": 63.0423, "possession_lost": 12.0439, "dispossessed": 0.3661, "duels_lost": 3.9581, "aerial_lost": 0.937, "total_contest": 0.3577, "won_contest": 0.0919, "ball_recovery": 1.9021, "challenges_lost": 0.8605, "fouls": 1.6073, "fouls_drawn": 1.0384, "blocks": 0.6296, "goals": 0.0054, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "shots_on_target": 0.0646, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.5674, "total_progression": 24.1196, "progressive_carries": 0.7986, "key_pass": 0.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.4072 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.2744, "aerialWon": 0.4742, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6193, "totalTackle": 2.2878, "defensive_actions": 2.6825 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.866491973400116, "model_output": 0.8665, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 } ], "others": 0.0254, "total": 0.8665, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129356 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.072054 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.027822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.026122 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.025969 } ], "others_margin": 0.029756 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.8529325723648071, "model_output": 1.8529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1973 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0805 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0331 } ], "others": 0.0141, "total": 1.8529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133381 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.062137 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.046745 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.024411 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.01816 } ], "others_margin": 0.007636 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2229968309402466, "model_output": 1.223, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1237 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0811 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0345 } ], "others": 0.0539, "total": 1.223, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136657 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.080418 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.042117 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.035541 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.029979 } ], "others_margin": 0.044993 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.76049542427063, "model_output": 2.7605, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3964 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2962 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2133 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0997 } ], "others": 0.0605, "total": 2.7605, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.162012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.093773 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.073427 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036255 } ], "others_margin": 0.022157 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7902098894119263, "model_output": 0.7902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4607 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0822 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": -0.066, "total": 0.7902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.404354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120339 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.082113 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.077215 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037762 } ], "others_margin": -0.080169 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4717717468738556, "model_output": 0.4718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0509, "total": 0.4718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061383 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027773 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012612 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011148 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009542 } ], "others_margin": -0.050997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735494613647461, "model_output": 6.7355, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 6.7355, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014823 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011943 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010942 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009874 } ], "others_margin": -0.010173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.629)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.87, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2279, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4737, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.4923, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6137, "fouls_drawn": 1.0426, "blocks": 0.6321, "goals": 0.0054, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "assists": 0.0568, "assist_rate": 0.0568, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0649, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19800000, "quality_factor": 0.6291, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goals": 0.0054, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9653, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4923, "after": 2.47 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2279, "after": 1.2396 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0426, "after": 1.0515 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goals": 0.0054, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goals": 0.0054, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2025 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0328, "after": 0.0225 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0384, "after": 0.0294 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2025, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 894, "fifa_rank": 502.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2025, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "scorer_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0192, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8668, "tackles": 1.8603, "tackles_won": 1.2396, "clearances": 2.7715, "aerial_won": 0.7934, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7355, "minutes": 86.88, "total_pass": 40.4171, "accurate_pass": 34.5919, "duels_won": 4.3752, "total_long_balls": 3.5134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0316, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6166, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9752, "crosses_total": 2.47, "crosses_accurate": 0.4916, "touches": 63.2945, "possession_lost": 12.0921, "dispossessed": 0.3676, "duels_lost": 3.9739, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.3591, "won_contest": 0.0923, "ball_recovery": 1.9097, "challenges_lost": 0.8639, "fouls": 1.6174, "fouls_drawn": 1.0515, "blocks": 0.6321, "goal_rate": 0.0054, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.0241, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 14.6257, "total_progression": 24.2161, "progressive_carries": 0.8018, "key_pass": 0.527, "shots_off_target": 0.4088, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2025, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "provider_weight": 0.0354, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0671, "creation_factor": 1.2025, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Zion Suzuki": { "player_id": 905351, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 189, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 58, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 3, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 24.9, "expected_saves": 6.1, "high_pressure_saves": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.252 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.41 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.3189 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.3448 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1679 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2047 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3424, "combined_rank_score": 1415.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1915.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0367, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zion Suzuki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kodai Sano", "ranking": 3419 }, { "player_name": "Torbjørn Heggem", "ranking": 3420 }, { "player_name": "Alphonse Aréola", "ranking": 3421 }, { "player_name": "Yarek", "ranking": 3422 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Hofmann", "ranking": 3423 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Esmir Bajraktarević", "ranking": 3425 }, { "player_name": "Ilia Gruev", "ranking": 3426 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Hickey", "ranking": 3427 }, { "player_name": "Joaquin Seys", "ranking": 3428 }, { "player_name": "Julián Araujo", "ranking": 3429 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.635, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.635, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.03, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8948, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.271, "accurate_pass": 26.332, "total_long_balls": 21.4126, "accurate_long_balls": 6.9469, "touches": 55.9696, "clearances": 2.9032, "ball_recovery": 10.5426, "high_claims": 2.7333, "punches": 1.5405, "aerial_won": 0.5144, "sweeper_actions": 1.8169, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8169, "saves_inside_box": 1.9964, "possession_lost": 15.3056, "duels_won": 0.96, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7191, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0164 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 15.3056, "distribution_accuracy": 0.945, "saves": 3.0741, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.044, "save_contribution": 2.9519, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 22.0164 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.894785165786743, "model_output": 2.8948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 2.8948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014158 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.014139 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012036 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.009099 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005139 } ], "others_margin": -0.005995 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.05807548761367798, "model_output": -0.0581, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0768, "total": -0.0581, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.062527 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.061118 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061014 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.035855 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.022619 } ], "others_margin": -0.076887 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.036701679229736, "model_output": 7.0367, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0585, "total": 7.0367, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.039744 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.030842 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027588 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.026364 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.020133 } ], "others_margin": -0.058551 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0300, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9816, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7407, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.03, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0197)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0197, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9816, "after": 2.9425 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7407, "after": 0.7261 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 21.6, "expected_saves": 5.29, "high_pressure_saves": 1.82, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.271 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 21.6, "expected_saves": 5.29, "high_pressure_saves": 1.82, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 24.9, "expected_saves": 6.1, "high_pressure_saves": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 21.6, "after": 24.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 5.29, "after": 6.1 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.82, "after": 2.1 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 24.9, "expected_saves": 6.1, "high_pressure_saves": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3424, "fifa_rank": 1915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 24.9, "expected_saves": 6.1, "high_pressure_saves": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.9425, "goals_prevented": -0.0598, "rating": 7.0367, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.5091, "accurate_pass": 27.122, "total_long_balls": 22.055, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1553, "touches": 57.6487, "clearances": 2.9903, "ball_recovery": 10.8589, "high_claims": 2.8153, "punches": 1.5867, "aerial_won": 0.5298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8714, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8714, "saves_inside_box": 2.0563, "possession_lost": 15.7648, "duels_won": 0.9888, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7261, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6769, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.271, "shots_faced": 24.9, "expected_saves": 6.1, "high_pressure_saves": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Tyrone Mings": { "player_id": 303638, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 195, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 52, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 70, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0876, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1092, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 70, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.217, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 71, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 59, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2983, "combined_rank_score": 993.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1408.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7822, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrone Mings", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ruslan Lisakovich", "ranking": 2978 }, { "player_name": "Brando Bailey-Joseph", "ranking": 2979 }, { "player_name": "Dirk Carlson", "ranking": 2980 }, { "player_name": "Evann Guessand", "ranking": 2981 }, { "player_name": "Melvin Bard", "ranking": 2982 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Salim Mustafoev", "ranking": 2984 }, { "player_name": "Julian Del Rio", "ranking": 2985 }, { "player_name": "Takehiro Tomiyasu", "ranking": 2986 }, { "player_name": "Victor Luis", "ranking": 2987 }, { "player_name": "José Alí Gutiérrez", "ranking": 2988 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9965, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 23 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8174, "tackles": 0.9479, "tackles_won": 0.5744, "clearances": 6.0185, "aerial_won": 2.1357, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.4024, "accurate_pass": 51.9048, "duels_won": 2.8511, "total_long_balls": 5.3738, "accurate_long_balls": 1.896, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9674, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6106, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2941, "crosses_total": 0.1597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, "touches": 69.5279, "possession_lost": 7.6621, "dispossessed": 0.1263, "duels_lost": 2.451, "aerial_lost": 1.6211, "total_contest": 0.2984, "won_contest": 0.1181, "ball_recovery": 3.1646, "challenges_lost": 0.0937, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.4101, "blocks": 0.4032, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "expected_assists": 0.017, "shots_on_target": 0.0504, "big_chances_created": 0.0318, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4889, "total_progression": 70.3364, "progressive_carries": 0.7653, "key_pass": 0.2613, "shots_off_target": 0.4643 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.5406, "aerialWon": 1.9107, "totalClearance_p90": 5.7815, "totalTackle": 0.469, "defensive_actions": 0.9357 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8174217939376831, "model_output": 0.8174, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1034 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0834 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.8174, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113519 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.090482 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.030275 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.023952 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.023887 } ], "others_margin": 0.003922 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.947929859161377, "model_output": 0.9479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1669 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1588 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0936 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0799 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0529 } ], "others": -0.2169, "total": 0.9479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113936 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.108093 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.069624 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.063587 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044434 } ], "others_margin": -0.205972 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5743870735168457, "model_output": 0.5744, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0956 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0305 } ], "others": -0.1336, "total": 0.5744, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107128 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.097299 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.0932 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042128 } ], "others_margin": -0.209089 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.018548965454102, "model_output": 6.0185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.762 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3463 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3024 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.1613 } ], "others": 0.4746, "total": 6.0186, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.200889 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122769 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070595 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.057825 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.029521 } ], "others_margin": 0.082125 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.1357123851776123, "model_output": 2.1357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.187 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1576 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0944 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.07 } ], "others": 0.1682, "total": 2.1357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.126665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.095543 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.053148 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036202 } ], "others_margin": 0.082019 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5146855115890503, "model_output": 0.5147, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0608 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0348, "total": 0.5147, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060787 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015074 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010984 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.00903 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008856 } ], "others_margin": -0.034837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.782195091247559, "model_output": 6.7822, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 6.7822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019696 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014599 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012031 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010638 } ], "others_margin": 0.004225 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8146, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5724, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5129, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1591, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6505, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "blocks": 0.4018, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0502, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9965, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0015)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5121, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0015, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9889, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5724, "after": 0.5791 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0565, "after": 0.0388 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2983, "fifa_rank": 1408.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.031, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0331, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8133, "tackles": 0.9446, "tackles_won": 0.5791, "clearances": 5.9975, "aerial_won": 2.1282, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 6.7822, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 58.198, "accurate_pass": 51.7231, "duels_won": 2.8411, "total_long_balls": 5.355, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8894, "total_own_half_passes": 36.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4895, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2336, "crosses_total": 0.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0696, "touches": 69.2846, "possession_lost": 7.6353, "dispossessed": 0.1259, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 1.6154, "total_contest": 0.2974, "won_contest": 0.1177, "ball_recovery": 3.1535, "challenges_lost": 0.0934, "fouls": 0.6495, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.4018, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0501, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 22.4102, "total_progression": 70.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.7626, "key_pass": 0.2604, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0103, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0196, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ian Maatsen": { "player_id": 976263, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 178, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0883, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1784, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4212, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "expected_assists": 0.138, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3879, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1481, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2353, "combined_rank_score": 855.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 840.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5828, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 871.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7068, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ian Maatsen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aaron Ramsdale", "ranking": 2348 }, { "player_name": "Temur Ismoilov", "ranking": 2349 }, { "player_name": "Khumoyun Murtazoev", "ranking": 2350 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Araújo", "ranking": 2351 }, { "player_name": "Harrison Steele", "ranking": 2352 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "ranking": 2354 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Rakhmatilloev", "ranking": 2355 }, { "player_name": "Chai-min Lim", "ranking": 2356 }, { "player_name": "Jasur Yakubov", "ranking": 2357 }, { "player_name": "Yashnarbek Berdirakhmonov", "ranking": 2358 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.009, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 171.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.58, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.216, "tackles": 1.9602, "tackles_won": 1.3583, "clearances": 2.3706, "aerial_won": 0.6406, "total_shots": 0.6791, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.6084, "accurate_pass": 25.4019, "duels_won": 3.3642, "total_long_balls": 1.2343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8319, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0774, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3245, "crosses_total": 2.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3934, "touches": 56.9018, "possession_lost": 13.3146, "dispossessed": 0.5756, "duels_lost": 4.9877, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "total_contest": 2.5608, "won_contest": 0.5015, "ball_recovery": 3.0792, "challenges_lost": 0.9144, "fouls": 0.9865, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "blocks": 0.0688, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.0497, "expected_goals": 0.0531, "expected_assists": 0.1197, "shots_on_target": 0.1945, "big_chances_created": 0.157, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3507, "total_progression": 58.2872, "progressive_carries": 2.3644, "key_pass": 0.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.4846 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.3481, "aerialWon": 0.3978, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6777, "totalTackle": 1.5511, "defensive_actions": 2.9192 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.2160074710845947, "model_output": 1.216, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0982 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0388 } ], "others": 0.0677, "total": 1.216, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132657 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.095265 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.054547 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.039543 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.033256 } ], "others_margin": 0.057263 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9602001905441284, "model_output": 1.9602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.189 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0758 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0446 } ], "others": 0.156, "total": 1.9602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128066 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.047121 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.036726 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028889 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025039 } ], "others_margin": 0.082906 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.358258843421936, "model_output": 1.3583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1214 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0729 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0663 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.1916, "total": 1.3583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134263 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.072768 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.06188 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.031933 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021826 } ], "others_margin": 0.151935 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.3706376552581787, "model_output": 2.3706, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.423 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3064 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2742 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1567 } ], "others": -0.229, "total": 2.3706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.161625 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135534 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.096311 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.094851 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.058527 } ], "others_margin": -0.092184 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6406425833702087, "model_output": 0.6406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4818 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1112 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0851 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0725 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.049 } ], "others": -0.1674, "total": 0.6406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.427424 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116068 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.087578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081163 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.058824 } ], "others_margin": -0.232179 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6790947318077087, "model_output": 0.6791, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.6791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.150702 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057033 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04375 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.035382 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.016411 } ], "others_margin": -0.011622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706761837005615, "model_output": 6.7068, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 6.7068, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.046257 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030649 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018673 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013886 } ], "others_margin": -0.020442 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.227, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3705, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6853, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0573, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 0.9954, "fouls_drawn": 0.4069, "blocks": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0501, "assist_rate": 0.0501, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "shots_on_target": 0.1963, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9273, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0573, "after": 2.0407 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9954, "after": 1.0107 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3705, "after": 1.3612 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6853, "after": 0.6935 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.227, "after": 1.2347 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0536, "after": 0.0368 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1208, "after": 0.0924 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2353, "fifa_rank": 871.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0294, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0314, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2347, "tackles": 1.9778, "tackles_won": 1.3612, "clearances": 2.392, "aerial_won": 0.6464, "total_shots": 0.6935, "rating": 6.7068, "minutes": 83.46, "total_pass": 29.8749, "accurate_pass": 25.6305, "duels_won": 3.3945, "total_long_balls": 1.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8394, "total_own_half_passes": 13.653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4444, "crosses_total": 2.0407, "crosses_accurate": 0.3969, "touches": 57.4139, "possession_lost": 13.4344, "dispossessed": 0.5808, "duels_lost": 5.0326, "aerial_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 2.5838, "won_contest": 0.506, "ball_recovery": 3.1069, "challenges_lost": 0.9226, "fouls": 1.0107, "fouls_drawn": 0.4026, "blocks": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "big_chances_created": 0.1584, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 13.4709, "total_progression": 58.8118, "progressive_carries": 2.3857, "key_pass": 0.8145, "shots_off_target": 0.489, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Phil Foden", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0883, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0883, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "provider_weight": 0.0739, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1403, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "player_id": 826204, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 184, "market_value": 49000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0113, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 1.196, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 88, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025058, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0662, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025276, "match_date": "2026-01-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1498, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 93, "accurate_pass": 86, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 14, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025240, "match_date": "2025-12-27", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1773, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 328, "combined_rank_score": 220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 244.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1222, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 197.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9871, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 323 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0158, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6217, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.1746, "total_shots": 0.6346, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.1197, "accurate_pass": 41.9006, "duels_won": 6.7858, "total_long_balls": 2.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.797, "total_own_half_passes": 20.794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4694, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.4312, "crosses_total": 0.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.5356, "possession_lost": 9.9882, "dispossessed": 0.8457, "duels_lost": 5.4136, "aerial_won": 1.4864, "aerial_lost": 1.0202, "interceptions": 0.8333, "tackles_won": 1.4761, "tackles": 2.3436, "clearances": 1.8784, "total_contest": 1.6691, "won_contest": 0.7501, "challenges_lost": 0.9995, "fouls": 1.6291, "fouls_drawn": 2.3492, "blocks": 0.7671, "big_chances_created": 0.1106, "big_chances_missed": 0.0401, "xgot": 0.0169, "ball_carries": 14.1047, "total_progression": 25.2525, "progressive_carries": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.46 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-03", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.3386, "totalShots": 0.382, "expectedGoals": 0.024, "expectedAssists": 0.0405, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0655 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6216617226600647, "model_output": 0.6217, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1192 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1082 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0722 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0347 } ], "others": -0.1359, "total": 0.6217, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125105 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.112893 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.083096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050431 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044808 } ], "others_margin": -0.197729 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0446719229221344, "model_output": 0.0447, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.0447, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.239642 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.170462 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127156 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.072918 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.069289 } ], "others_margin": -0.228536 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06396567076444626, "model_output": 0.064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 0.064, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.11437 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096901 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077281 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.049439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040067 } ], "others_margin": -0.208024 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04580030217766762, "model_output": 0.0458, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0458, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.421856 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.153955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.115331 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.049859 } ], "others_margin": -0.103709 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.045476123690605164, "model_output": 0.0455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.0455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.271944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175397 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.155712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.092302 } ], "others_margin": -0.158967 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17459776997566223, "model_output": 0.1746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 0.1746, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.296566 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.213116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142146 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.104485 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.054725 } ], "others_margin": -0.097752 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6346226334571838, "model_output": 0.6346, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2527 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0326 } ], "others": -0.0917, "total": 0.6346, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.25268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118464 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05718 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046552 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03264 } ], "others_margin": -0.091684 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.987141132354736, "model_output": 6.9871, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.085 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0427, "total": 6.9871, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.08496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062016 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029306 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.020325 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017733 } ], "others_margin": -0.0426 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0158, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.1774, "total_shots": 0.6447, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1376, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.5099, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8465, "tackles_won": 1.4994, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6548, "fouls_drawn": 2.3863, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0407, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4673 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0158, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.6354, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.5099, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0407, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4673 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9738, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.3863, "after": 2.3589 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6548, "after": 1.6661 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6447, "after": 0.6354 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4994, "after": 1.4918 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8465, "after": 0.8413 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1376, "after": 0.1426 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.6421, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.5099, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0407, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4673 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "skill_edge": -0.0225, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.847, "defender_skill": 0.8969, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "market_value": 98000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8969 } ], "xg_override": 0.0447 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.5099, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6421, "after": 0.6171 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4673, "after": 0.4491 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1748, "after": 0.168 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0113, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 1.196 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0447, "after": 0.0307 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0454, "after": 0.0347 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0113, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 1.196, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 328, "fifa_rank": 197.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0113, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 1.196, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "scorer_weight": 0.0304, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6315, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.168, "total_shots": 0.6171, "rating": 6.9871, "minutes": 87.64, "total_pass": 48.88, "accurate_pass": 42.5626, "duels_won": 6.893, "total_long_balls": 2.4533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7612, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8014, "crosses_total": 0.1426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5553, "possession_lost": 10.146, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 5.4991, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0363, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.4918, "tackles": 2.3806, "clearances": 1.9081, "total_contest": 1.6955, "won_contest": 0.762, "challenges_lost": 1.0153, "fouls": 1.6661, "fouls_drawn": 2.3589, "blocks": 0.7792, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "big_chances_missed": 0.0391, "xgot": 0.0113, "ball_carries": 14.3276, "total_progression": 25.6515, "progressive_carries": 0.3455, "shots_off_target": 0.4491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 1.196, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "provider_weight": 0.0415, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0788, "creation_factor": 1.196, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "João Gomes": { "player_id": 1015267, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 35, "height": 176, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.022, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "creation_factor": 1.1926, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 40, "rating": 5.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.1749, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024022, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0677, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025029, "match_date": "2026-04-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2402, "combined_rank_score": 873.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 618.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7714, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 1128.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8332, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "João Gomes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sardor Rakhmanov", "ranking": 2397 }, { "player_name": "Giannis Konstantelias", "ranking": 2398 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Véjar", "ranking": 2399 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Begić", "ranking": 2400 }, { "player_name": "Mark Flekken", "ranking": 2401 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mahamadou Dembélé", "ranking": 2403 }, { "player_name": "Je-ho Lee", "ranking": 2404 }, { "player_name": "Juan Camilo Zapata", "ranking": 2405 }, { "player_name": "John Kennedy", "ranking": 2406 }, { "player_name": "Amir Saidov", "ranking": 2407 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 39.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7197, "expected_assists": 0.058, "assists": 0.0789, "assist_rate": 0.0789, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0449, "goal_rate": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.5631, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.6015, "accurate_pass": 30.9851, "duels_won": 6.4504, "total_long_balls": 2.538, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4459, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3137, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7863, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.1987, "crosses_total": 0.5732, "crosses_accurate": 0.2993, "touches": 51.7776, "possession_lost": 8.3252, "dispossessed": 1.8582, "duels_lost": 6.6334, "aerial_won": 0.6462, "aerial_lost": 1.0468, "interceptions": 0.8322, "tackles_won": 1.9237, "tackles": 3.2224, "clearances": 1.223, "total_contest": 1.5584, "won_contest": 0.9595, "challenges_lost": 1.4935, "fouls": 1.7251, "fouls_drawn": 1.6223, "blocks": 0.3231, "big_chances_created": 0.1887, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0475, "ball_carries": 14.3505, "total_progression": 38.2611, "progressive_carries": 1.148, "shots_off_target": 0.3826 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 40.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 5.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.2708, "totalShots": 0.2721, "expectedGoals": 0.0156, "expectedAssists": 0.077, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0985 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7196881771087646, "model_output": 0.7197, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1115 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0369 } ], "others": -0.0665, "total": 0.7197, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11747 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.083289 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.068214 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.049196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.045854 } ], "others_margin": -0.088349 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.058020997792482376, "model_output": 0.058, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 0.058, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139035 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.11966 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.105276 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.077793 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057936 } ], "others_margin": -0.286475 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07887987047433853, "model_output": 0.0789, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.0789, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.107088 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.084961 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067998 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.062326 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.045326 } ], "others_margin": 0.004559 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03660862147808075, "model_output": 0.0366, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0366, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.448701 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232822 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.156076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128866 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.052951 } ], "others_margin": -0.180868 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.044934194535017014, "model_output": 0.0449, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.0449, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.25781 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194701 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.116734 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103043 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.101242 } ], "others_margin": -0.225667 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18045973777770996, "model_output": 0.1805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.1805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.280209 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.201776 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.152143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132577 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040131 } ], "others_margin": -0.049793 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5630427598953247, "model_output": 0.563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2642 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1266 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0522 } ], "others": -0.1277, "total": 0.563, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264213 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126615 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.063342 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052212 } ], "others_margin": -0.127581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.833230018615723, "model_output": 6.8332, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.044, "total": 6.8332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046283 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033106 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.026914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021983 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009436 } ], "others_margin": -0.04388 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assists": 0.0796, "assist_rate": 0.0796, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.182, "total_shots": 0.5679, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.5781, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8394, "tackles_won": 1.9402, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7399, "fouls_drawn": 1.6363, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3859 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assists": 0.0794, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.1816, "total_shots": 0.5668, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3859 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9066, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.9402, "after": 1.9453 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assists": 0.0794, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.1816, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3859 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assists": 0.0794, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "skill_edge": -0.0469, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.7926, "defender_skill": 0.8969, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "market_value": 98000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8969 } ], "xg_override": 0.0324 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6518, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5675, "after": 0.4984 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3859, "after": 0.3389 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1816, "after": 0.1595 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0479, "after": 0.0421 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0452, "after": 0.0397 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "creation_factor": 1.1926 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0324, "after": 0.0222 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0447 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "creation_factor": 1.1926, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2402, "fifa_rank": 1128.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.022, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "creation_factor": 1.1926, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "scorer_weight": 0.0242, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0258, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7259, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1595, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 35.9077, "accurate_pass": 31.2516, "duels_won": 6.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.5598, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 16.454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9135, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.338, "crosses_total": 0.577, "crosses_accurate": 0.3019, "touches": 52.2229, "possession_lost": 8.3968, "dispossessed": 1.8742, "duels_lost": 6.6904, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0558, "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles_won": 1.9453, "tackles": 3.2501, "clearances": 1.2335, "total_contest": 1.5718, "won_contest": 0.9678, "challenges_lost": 1.5063, "fouls": 1.7409, "fouls_drawn": 1.6375, "blocks": 0.3259, "big_chances_created": 0.1903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 14.4739, "total_progression": 38.5901, "progressive_carries": 1.1579, "shots_off_target": 0.3389, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.022, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 1.0886, "creation_factor": 1.1926, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "provider_weight": 0.0533, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1012, "creation_factor": 1.1926, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "player_id": 1085381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 186, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2597, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2127, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 81, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2287, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0815, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3628, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4249, "expected_assists": 0.1295, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2356, "expected_assists": 0.4392, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1269, "combined_rank_score": 551.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 224.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1571, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 879.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1093, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 }, { "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking": 1266 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Gavi", "ranking": 1272 }, { "player_name": "Martin Boakye", "ranking": 1273 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Caseres", "ranking": 1274 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.633, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.633, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0403, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 70.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3865, "goals": 0.4686, "goal_rate": 0.4686, "shots_on_target": 1.119, "total_shots": 2.6536, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "key_pass": 1.0407, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 15.514, "accurate_pass": 12.052, "duels_won": 3.8013, "total_long_balls": 0.3787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3602, "crosses_total": 0.4066, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 30.405, "possession_lost": 8.8075, "dispossessed": 0.8746, "duels_lost": 6.5879, "aerial_lost": 3.0759, "total_contest": 3.9537, "won_contest": 2.1198, "ball_recovery": 1.5756, "challenges_lost": 0.4817, "fouls": 0.3219, "fouls_drawn": 0.5044, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2408, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4094, "clearances": 0.174, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1257, "big_chances_missed": 0.4148, "xgot": 0.3169, "offsides": 0.4737, "ball_carries": 9.7959, "total_progression": 77.8816, "progressive_carries": 3.6157, "shots_off_target": 1.5345 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.3071, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 12.1268, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.3601, "accuratePass": 12.052, "totalShots": 3.0775 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3864755630493164, "model_output": 0.3865, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.07 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 0.3865, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.302784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148262 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.086277 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.085535 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.040707 } ], "others_margin": 0.005683 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4686345160007477, "model_output": 0.4686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0469 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.4686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.336664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.144038 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.120581 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.117644 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10705 } ], "others_margin": 0.014074 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.1190298795700073, "model_output": 1.119, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2128 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0896 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0808 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0814 } ], "others": 0.0367, "total": 1.119, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.334218 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.103269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.102447 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.078218 } ], "others_margin": 0.033444 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.6535518169403076, "model_output": 2.6536, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2688 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1316 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.081 } ], "others": 0.1102, "total": 2.6536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.586388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.268828 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.131576 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.094855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.080958 } ], "others_margin": 0.110198 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10691870003938675, "model_output": 0.1069, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 0.1069, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.201258 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.160029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.132289 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085642 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.059031 } ], "others_margin": 0.132608 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.040733814239502, "model_output": 1.0407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1752 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0872 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0919 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0483 } ], "others": 0.0096, "total": 1.0407, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.229046 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097026 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.092981 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051561 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047949 } ], "others_margin": 0.009472 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.10926628112793, "model_output": 7.1093, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1011 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0769 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.0064, "total": 7.1093, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.101145 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.076885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067045 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.06459 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.024965 } ], "others_margin": 0.006354 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0403, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4021, "goals": 0.4875, "goal_rate": 0.4875, "shots_on_target": 1.1641, "total_shots": 2.7605, "expected_assists": 0.1112, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.423, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3349, "fouls_drawn": 0.5247, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2505, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4315, "xgot": 0.3297, "offsides": 0.4928, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5963 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0403, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0157)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4021, "goals": 0.4798, "goal_rate": 0.4798, "shots_on_target": 1.1458, "total_shots": 2.717, "expected_assists": 0.1112, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4315, "xgot": 0.3297, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5963 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0157, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8917, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7605, "after": 2.717 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.1641, "after": 1.1458 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.423, "after": 0.4339 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5247, "after": 0.5164 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.4928, "after": 0.485 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4875, "after": 0.4798 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.3349, "after": 0.3296 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4021, "goals": 0.4798, "goal_rate": 0.4798, "shots_on_target": 1.1458, "total_shots": 2.7421, "expected_assists": 0.1112, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4315, "xgot": 0.3297, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5963 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3779, "goals": 0.4509, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.1112, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.3098, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "skill_edge": -0.037, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.8826, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 } ], "xg_override": 0.3779 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7421, "after": 2.5768 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5963, "after": 1.5 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.1458, "after": 1.0767 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4798, "after": 0.4509 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4315, "after": 0.4055 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4021, "after": 0.3779 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3297, "after": 0.3098 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3779, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.1112, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.3098, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2597, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.2127, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3779, "after": 0.2597 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1112, "after": 0.085 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2597, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.2127, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1269, "fifa_rank": 879.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2597, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.2127, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2287, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2287, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "scorer_weight": 0.304, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.3244, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2597, "goal_rate": 0.4509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0767, "total_shots": 2.5768, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0827, "rating": 7.1093, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 16.1392, "accurate_pass": 12.5377, "duels_won": 3.9545, "total_long_balls": 0.394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7374, "crosses_total": 0.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1112, "touches": 31.6303, "possession_lost": 9.1624, "dispossessed": 0.9098, "duels_lost": 6.8534, "aerial_lost": 3.1999, "total_contest": 4.113, "won_contest": 2.2052, "ball_recovery": 1.6391, "challenges_lost": 0.5011, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.5164, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4259, "clearances": 0.181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1308, "big_chances_missed": 0.4055, "xgot": 0.2127, "offsides": 0.485, "ball_carries": 10.1907, "total_progression": 81.0202, "progressive_carries": 3.7614, "shots_off_target": 1.5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2287, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0815, "finishing_factor": 1.1706, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0815, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.068, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1291, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ibrahim Mbaye": { "player_id": 1590918, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 175, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 70, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1055, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0598, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2884, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.035, "expected_assists": 0.0706, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3297, "combined_rank_score": 1244.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 672.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.725, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9142, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ionuț Andrei Radu", "ranking": 3292 }, { "player_name": "Nobel Mendy", "ranking": 3293 }, { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking": 3299 }, { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 3301 }, { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0342, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1926, "goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "shots_on_target": 0.8958, "total_shots": 1.6486, "expected_assists": 0.0781, "key_pass": 1.1909, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.1992, "accurate_pass": 6.2332, "duels_won": 2.562, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "crosses_total": 0.4595, "crosses_accurate": 0.1927, "touches": 15.2492, "possession_lost": 3.7662, "dispossessed": 0.7202, "duels_lost": 2.7673, "aerial_lost": 0.6276, "total_contest": 1.448, "won_contest": 0.9415, "ball_recovery": 1.0871, "challenges_lost": 0.4935, "fouls": 0.4194, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6276, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4595, "clearances": 0.2667, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3138, "xgot": 0.0824, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7868, "total_progression": 67.5227, "progressive_carries": 3.1156, "shots_off_target": 0.7527 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1035, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.9194, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.9534, "accuratePass": 6.2332, "totalShots": 1.4009 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1925685703754425, "model_output": 0.1926, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.1926, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.277259 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.19092 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.102613 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061801 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.053661 } ], "others_margin": -0.019235 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2283431887626648, "model_output": 0.2283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0701 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.2283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.297417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.148979 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.115755 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.111626 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.036828 } ], "others_margin": -0.06006 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.895845353603363, "model_output": 0.8958, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.209 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.09 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0744 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0513 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.8958, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.329193 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.113963 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.085308 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.076587 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.059122 } ], "others_margin": 0.002276 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6485742330551147, "model_output": 1.6486, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4461 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1425 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0844 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0806 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0719 } ], "others": -0.2726, "total": 1.6486, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.446071 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.142499 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084415 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.080567 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.07192 } ], "others_margin": -0.272649 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07807005196809769, "model_output": 0.0781, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.0781, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.240305 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.122394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.084758 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.084077 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.075733 } ], "others_margin": -0.002509 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1909252405166626, "model_output": 1.1909, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2351 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.2268 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0769 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0534 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 1.1909, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296723 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.221287 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06518 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053314 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.045192 } ], "others_margin": -0.01535 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.914190292358398, "model_output": 6.9142, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 6.9142, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.072836 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055054 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.041343 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.033499 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.017474 } ], "others_margin": -0.039348 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0342, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1992, "goals": 0.2362, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "shots_on_target": 0.9265, "total_shots": 1.705, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3245, "xgot": 0.0852, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.7784 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0342, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1992, "goals": 0.2362, "goal_rate": 0.2362, "shots_on_target": 0.9265, "total_shots": 1.705, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3245, "xgot": 0.0852, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.7784 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1624, "goals": 0.1926, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0695, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "skill_edge": -0.0777, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.71, "defender_skill": 0.8826, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 } ], "xg_override": 0.1624 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.705, "after": 1.3901 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9265, "after": 0.7554 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7784, "after": 0.6346 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3245, "after": 0.2646 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2362, "after": 0.1926 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1992, "after": 0.1624 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0852, "after": 0.0695 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1624, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0695, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1624, "after": 0.1115 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0807, "after": 0.0617 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1055, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1055, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "scorer_weight": 0.1274, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.1359, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7554, "total_shots": 1.3901, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "key_pass": 1.2317, "rating": 6.9142, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 7.4454, "accurate_pass": 6.4464, "duels_won": 2.6496, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.4752, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 15.7707, "possession_lost": 3.895, "dispossessed": 0.7448, "duels_lost": 2.8619, "aerial_lost": 0.6491, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.9737, "ball_recovery": 1.1243, "challenges_lost": 0.5104, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6491, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4752, "clearances": 0.2758, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2646, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0189, "total_progression": 69.832, "progressive_carries": 3.2222, "shots_off_target": 0.6346, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1055, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0598, "finishing_factor": 1.1422, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0598, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0494, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Emiliano Buendía": { "player_id": 783126, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 170, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0366, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0759, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2245, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4116, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.154, "expected_assists": 0.0708, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6148, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1287, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0823, "expected_assists": 0.0593, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.2068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1418, "combined_rank_score": 587.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 506.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8556, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 668.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.858, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emiliano Buendía", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Zeki Çelik", "ranking": 1413 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Rațiu", "ranking": 1414 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Politano", "ranking": 1415 }, { "player_name": "Seong-jun Min", "ranking": 1416 }, { "player_name": "Martin Baturina", "ranking": 1417 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santi Cazorla", "ranking": 1419 }, { "player_name": "Mattéo Guendouzi", "ranking": 1420 }, { "player_name": "Maxim De Cuyper", "ranking": 1421 }, { "player_name": "Denis Zakaria", "ranking": 1422 }, { "player_name": "Oleg Zoteev", "ranking": 1423 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0022, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2005, "goals": 0.2076, "goal_rate": 0.2076, "shots_on_target": 0.6331, "total_shots": 1.8857, "expected_assists": 0.103, "key_pass": 1.1769, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7157, "accurate_pass": 22.2115, "duels_won": 6.4346, "total_long_balls": 1.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7601, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1206, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5528, "crosses_total": 1.155, "crosses_accurate": 0.0572, "touches": 45.4544, "possession_lost": 11.0287, "dispossessed": 1.3203, "duels_lost": 6.0957, "aerial_lost": 1.3818, "total_contest": 1.2743, "won_contest": 0.6242, "ball_recovery": 4.5233, "challenges_lost": 1.7493, "fouls": 1.0338, "fouls_drawn": 2.0839, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles_won": 1.9031, "tackles": 2.9016, "clearances": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.0466, "big_chances_created": 0.1212, "big_chances_missed": 0.2246, "xgot": 0.0751, "offsides": 0.083, "ball_carries": 9.498, "total_progression": 36.6356, "progressive_carries": 1.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.2526 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.184, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 16.5534, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.313, "accuratePass": 20.082, "totalShots": 1.7961 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.20045533776283264, "model_output": 0.2005, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.2005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.300818 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.087881 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.080453 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057755 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034533 } ], "others_margin": -0.027426 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20759715139865875, "model_output": 0.2076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0048, "total": 0.2076, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281253 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.107077 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.060408 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.056144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.054959 } ], "others_margin": 0.023162 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6330857872962952, "model_output": 0.6331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1729 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0091, "total": 0.6331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27955 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.098299 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.051819 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051086 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028752 } ], "others_margin": 0.014348 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8856849670410156, "model_output": 1.8857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4821 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1416 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0375 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 1.8857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.482133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.141631 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.065612 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050747 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.037495 } ], "others_margin": -0.039965 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10296744853258133, "model_output": 0.103, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.103, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.214314 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.187186 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.038415 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032649 } ], "others_margin": 0.002506 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1768614053726196, "model_output": 1.1769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1028 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0881 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0379 } ], "others": 0.0924, "total": 1.1769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.239353 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087168 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.061582 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.034324 } ], "others_margin": 0.081686 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.857994079589844, "model_output": 6.858, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 6.858, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047456 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.024597 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01605 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014228 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.012483 } ], "others_margin": 0.031967 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0022, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2009, "goals": 0.2081, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "shots_on_target": 0.6345, "total_shots": 1.8899, "expected_assists": 0.1032, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.2251, "xgot": 0.0753, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 1.2554 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0022, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2009, "goals": 0.2081, "goal_rate": 0.2081, "shots_on_target": 0.6345, "total_shots": 1.8899, "expected_assists": 0.1032, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.2251, "xgot": 0.0753, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 1.2554 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1423, "goals": 0.1474, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.1032, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0533, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "skill_edge": -0.1385, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5748, "defender_skill": 0.8826, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 } ], "xg_override": 0.1423 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8899, "after": 1.3385 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2554, "after": 0.8891 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6345, "after": 0.4494 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2251, "after": 0.1594 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2081, "after": 0.1474 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2009, "after": 0.1423 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0753, "after": 0.0533 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1423, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.1032, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0533, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0366, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1423, "after": 0.0977 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1032, "after": 0.0789 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0366, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1418, "fifa_rank": 668.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0366, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "scorer_weight": 0.1003, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.107, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4494, "total_shots": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "key_pass": 1.1795, "rating": 6.858, "minutes": 75.96, "total_pass": 28.7789, "accurate_pass": 22.2604, "duels_won": 6.4488, "total_long_balls": 1.7607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5826, "crosses_total": 1.1575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0573, "touches": 45.5544, "possession_lost": 11.053, "dispossessed": 1.3232, "duels_lost": 6.1091, "aerial_lost": 1.3848, "total_contest": 1.2771, "won_contest": 0.6256, "ball_recovery": 4.5333, "challenges_lost": 1.7531, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 2.0885, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8839, "tackles_won": 1.9073, "tackles": 2.908, "clearances": 0.2775, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.1594, "xgot": 0.0366, "offsides": 0.0832, "ball_carries": 9.5189, "total_progression": 36.7162, "progressive_carries": 1.3781, "shots_off_target": 0.8891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0759, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "provider_weight": 0.0631, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1198, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Alysson": { "player_id": 1631879, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 184, "market_value": 16200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0155, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0909, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023979, "match_date": "2026-02-27", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025206, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5030, "combined_rank_score": 3195.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 5569.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6768, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alysson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stav Lemkin", "ranking": 5025 }, { "player_name": "Edwin Herrera", "ranking": 5026 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Kvilitaia", "ranking": 5027 }, { "player_name": "Kamil Piątkowski", "ranking": 5028 }, { "player_name": "Francis De Vries", "ranking": 5029 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Juan Cornejo", "ranking": 5031 }, { "player_name": "Ole Didrik Blomberg", "ranking": 5032 }, { "player_name": "Romain Esse", "ranking": 5033 }, { "player_name": "Tom Lawrence", "ranking": 5034 }, { "player_name": "Tobias Bech", "ranking": 5035 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 9, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0093, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 9 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1741, "goals": 0.139, "goal_rate": 0.139, "shots_on_target": 0.4487, "total_shots": 1.3456, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "key_pass": 0.731, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.1818, "accurate_pass": 6.8657, "duels_won": 1.5709, "total_long_balls": 0.1731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1199, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1189, "crosses_total": 0.4769, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.0309, "possession_lost": 4.546, "dispossessed": 0.141, "duels_lost": 2.0803, "aerial_lost": 0.4089, "total_contest": 1.5357, "won_contest": 0.4614, "ball_recovery": 1.0403, "challenges_lost": 0.1199, "fouls": 0.5315, "fouls_drawn": 0.1942, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2578, "tackles_won": 0.579, "tackles": 0.579, "clearances": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2062, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0282, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9137, "total_progression": 26.495, "progressive_carries": 0.7976, "shots_off_target": 0.8969 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1952, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1659, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.141, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1199, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1019, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0866, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0736, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-27", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0626, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0532, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 9.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0124, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.0987, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.1189, "accuratePass": 6.8658, "totalShots": 0.2147 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17409123480319977, "model_output": 0.1741, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.1741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.299482 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.186361 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.060989 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.053501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.034654 } ], "others_margin": -0.161526 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1389557421207428, "model_output": 0.139, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0455, "total": 0.139, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.266945 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.201449 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.131093 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.085472 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.058495 } ], "others_margin": -0.283043 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4487091302871704, "model_output": 0.4487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0739 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0309 } ], "others": -0.105, "total": 0.4487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112469 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.109226 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.062223 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.057384 } ], "others_margin": -0.210304 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3456039428710938, "model_output": 1.3456, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0536 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0407 } ], "others": -0.0899, "total": 1.3456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.426903 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213304 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.064457 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.053597 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.040747 } ], "others_margin": -0.089944 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05859185382723808, "model_output": 0.0586, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.0586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.246185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.203215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.113249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.111423 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.099251 } ], "others_margin": -0.04074 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7310324311256409, "model_output": 0.731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2167 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.0816, "total": 0.731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276443 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06622 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060551 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.0553 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049426 } ], "others_margin": -0.105698 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676815509796143, "model_output": 6.6768, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0708, "total": 6.6768, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.040029 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018902 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013508 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012576 } ], "others_margin": -0.070768 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0093, quality 0.592)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1757, "goals": 0.1402, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "shots_on_target": 0.4529, "total_shots": 1.3581, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4813, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5364, "fouls_drawn": 0.196, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2602, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0285, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.9052 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16200000, "quality_factor": 0.5921, "boost_factor": 1.0093, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1757, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.4508, "total_shots": 1.3518, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.6052, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0285, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.9052 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7592, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5844, "after": 0.6052 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3581, "after": 1.3518 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1757, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.4508, "total_shots": 1.356, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0285, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.9052 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goals": 0.1102, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "skill_edge": -0.1307, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.5921, "defender_skill": 0.8826, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 } ], "xg_override": 0.1388 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.356, "after": 1.0715 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9052, "after": 0.7153 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4508, "after": 0.3562 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1757, "after": 0.1388 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1395, "after": 0.1102 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0285, "after": 0.0225 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1388, "after": 0.0953 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0452 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5030, "fifa_rank": 5569.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0909, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0909, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "scorer_weight": 0.0809, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0863, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.1102, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.7378, "rating": 6.6768, "minutes": 68.33, "total_pass": 8.2579, "accurate_pass": 6.9296, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.1747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.121, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1665, "crosses_total": 0.4791, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1707, "possession_lost": 4.5883, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 2.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.4127, "total_contest": 1.55, "won_contest": 0.4657, "ball_recovery": 1.05, "challenges_lost": 0.121, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1951, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.259, "tackles_won": 0.5844, "tackles": 0.5844, "clearances": 0.2298, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2081, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9501, "total_progression": 26.7414, "progressive_carries": 0.805, "shots_off_target": 0.7153, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0909, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.8485, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0362, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0686, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Marco Bizot": { "player_id": 100390, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 40, "height": 194, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 6, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.4111 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.513 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.4742 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025058, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.5296 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025210, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.2732 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025129, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 38, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.8059 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025091, "match_date": "2025-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.5531 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025016, "match_date": "2025-08-16", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6442 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3175, "combined_rank_score": 1143.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 881.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5429, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1406.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9512, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 }, { "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking": 3172 }, { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 }, { "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking": 3179 }, { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7794, "goals_prevented": 0.0017, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.6728, "accurate_pass": 25.0234, "total_long_balls": 13.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8243, "touches": 43.4928, "clearances": 1.6207, "ball_recovery": 6.7776, "high_claims": 1.3953, "punches": 0.8333, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "sweeper_actions": 1.0335, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0335, "saves_inside_box": 1.9513, "possession_lost": 8.947, "duels_won": 0.2153, "duels_lost": 0.0778, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0778, "fouls_drawn": 0.1076, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9965 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.947, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9213, "saves": 2.821, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2922, "save_contribution": 2.738, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 21.9965 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.779387950897217, "model_output": 2.7794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.136 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 2.7794, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047444 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.007116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004876 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004866 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004644 } ], "others_margin": -0.004805 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0016914722509682178, "model_output": 0.0017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.0017, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.023201 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014002 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013577 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010047 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.009437 } ], "others_margin": 0.006233 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.951164722442627, "model_output": 6.9512, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.9512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.016922 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.016914 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01679 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.015324 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.00976 } ], "others_margin": -0.028202 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7577, "goals_prevented": 0.0017, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0772, "fouls_drawn": 0.1068, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7306, "goals_prevented": 0.0017, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0759, "fouls_drawn": 0.105, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3778, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7577, "after": 2.7306 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 34.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3527, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 34.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1292, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.3527, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.3527, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3527, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 6.9512, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3175, "fifa_rank": 1406.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "player_id": 965011, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2805, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.2177, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2325, "combined_rank_score": 844.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.62, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matteo Ruggeri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Asadbek Karimov", "ranking": 2320 }, { "player_name": "Sunnatilla Poyonov", "ranking": 2321 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Torres", "ranking": 2322 }, { "player_name": "Lars Traber", "ranking": 2323 }, { "player_name": "Adem Zorgane", "ranking": 2324 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oihan Sancet", "ranking": 2326 }, { "player_name": "Dušan Tadić", "ranking": 2327 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 2328 }, { "player_name": "Yerko Leiva", "ranking": 2329 }, { "player_name": "Sergiño Dest", "ranking": 2330 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.623, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0081, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 11.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4332, "tackles": 0.549, "tackles_won": 0.3094, "clearances": 1.0656, "aerial_won": 0.4045, "total_shots": 0.1634, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 14.9828, "accurate_pass": 12.7619, "duels_won": 0.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.9463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4053, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0387, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3707, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7233, "crosses_total": 1.0255, "crosses_accurate": 0.2491, "touches": 22.2232, "possession_lost": 3.9323, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9424, "aerial_lost": 0.2153, "total_contest": 0.1322, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.0661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1266, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9913, "total_progression": 3.7337, "progressive_carries": 0.4194, "key_pass": 0.0915, "shots_off_target": 0.1634 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.241, "aerialWon": 0.7362, "totalClearance_p90": 4.3036, "totalTackle": 0.6201, "defensive_actions": 2.0112 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.43324100971221924, "model_output": 0.4332, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4947 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.4332, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.855659 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.105802 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.036804 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026876 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.02219 } ], "others_margin": -0.022028 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5489940643310547, "model_output": 0.549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.798 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 0.549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.860292 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067067 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028448 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.026894 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.026514 } ], "others_margin": -0.078464 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3094169795513153, "model_output": 0.3094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4999 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0174, "total": 0.3094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.895429 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.074389 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035759 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.030419 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.026483 } ], "others_margin": 0.057814 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0655735731124878, "model_output": 1.0656, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0309 } ], "others": -0.0916, "total": 1.0656, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.908328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065252 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.043504 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.04171 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.026342 } ], "others_margin": -0.082474 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4045020043849945, "model_output": 0.4045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7686 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1614 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.4045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.809429 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.303536 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.05122 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040507 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.035739 } ], "others_margin": 0.009516 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16340778768062592, "model_output": 0.1634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0801 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.1634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.209277 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080081 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019257 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.014093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.00771 } ], "others_margin": -0.0093 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62003755569458, "model_output": 6.62, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0957, "total": 6.62, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017774 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015186 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.014151 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013875 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013618 } ], "others_margin": -0.095742 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4368, "tackles": 0.5534, "tackles_won": 0.3119, "clearances": 1.0742, "aerial_won": 0.4078, "total_shots": 0.1647, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1647 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0006)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4365, "tackles": 0.5534, "tackles_won": 0.3117, "clearances": 1.0742, "aerial_won": 0.4078, "total_shots": 0.1646, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1647 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0006, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2454, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 11.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.51, "projection_minutes": 22.09, "minutes_scale": 0.5211, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0164, "after": 0.0078 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2325, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0011, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0062, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0118, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Taylor Harwood-Bellis": { "player_id": 980637, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.2157, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.345, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3194, "combined_rank_score": 1153.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2230.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Taylor Harwood-Bellis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mërgim Vojvoda", "ranking": 3189 }, { "player_name": "Sorba Thomas", "ranking": 3190 }, { "player_name": "Samson Baidoo", "ranking": 3191 }, { "player_name": "Guéla Doué", "ranking": 3192 }, { "player_name": "Amar Dedić", "ranking": 3193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 }, { "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking": 3196 }, { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.588753327668249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3449433330758295, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6941, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€27,000,000) scaled to 14.6 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.69)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.9, "tackles": 2.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "clearances": 3.2, "aerial_won": 2.8, "duels_won": 6.5, "total_pass": 50.0, "accurate_pass": 40.0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 6.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6, "total_own_half_passes": 32.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0, "crosses_total": 1.1, "crosses_accurate": 0.5, "touches": 66.0, "possession_lost": 7.5, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4.1, "aerial_lost": 2.4, "total_contest": 4.8, "won_contest": 2.7, "ball_recovery": 5.8, "challenges_lost": 1.2, "fouls": 1.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.9, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.05, "assist_rate": 0.05, "expected_assists": 0.066, "total_shots": 0.45, "shots_on_target": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.26, "big_chances_created": 0.05, "xgot": 0.017, "key_pass": 0.8, "ball_carries": 24.0, "total_progression": 72.0, "progressive_carries": 5.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.308, "tackles": 0.4701, "tackles_won": 0.2918, "clearances": 0.5187, "aerial_won": 0.4539, "duels_won": 1.0536, "total_pass": 8.1049, "accurate_pass": 6.4839, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 14.59, "total_long_balls": 0.9726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5836, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4589, "crosses_total": 0.1783, "crosses_accurate": 0.081, "touches": 10.6984, "possession_lost": 1.2157, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.6646, "aerial_lost": 2.4, "total_contest": 0.7781, "won_contest": 0.4377, "ball_recovery": 0.9402, "challenges_lost": 1.2, "fouls": 0.1945, "fouls_drawn": 0.1297, "blocks": 0.1459, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.0308, "shots_off_target": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0.1297, "ball_carries": 3.8903, "total_progression": 11.671, "progressive_carries": 0.8105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.345, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.59, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1621, "appearance_probability": 0.345 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.308, "tackles": 0.4701, "tackles_won": 0.2918, "clearances": 0.5187, "aerial_won": 0.4539, "duels_won": 1.0536, "total_pass": 8.1049, "accurate_pass": 6.4839, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 14.59, "total_long_balls": 0.9726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5836, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4589, "crosses_total": 0.1783, "crosses_accurate": 0.081, "touches": 10.6984, "possession_lost": 1.2157, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.6646, "aerial_lost": 2.4, "total_contest": 0.7781, "won_contest": 0.4377, "ball_recovery": 0.9402, "challenges_lost": 1.2, "fouls": 0.1945, "fouls_drawn": 0.1297, "blocks": 0.1459, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.0308, "shots_off_target": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0.1297, "ball_carries": 3.8903, "total_progression": 11.671, "progressive_carries": 0.8105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.345, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.308, "tackles": 0.4701, "tackles_won": 0.2918, "clearances": 0.5187, "aerial_won": 0.4539, "duels_won": 1.0536, "total_pass": 8.1049, "accurate_pass": 6.4839, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 14.59, "total_long_balls": 0.9726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5836, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4589, "crosses_total": 0.1783, "crosses_accurate": 0.081, "touches": 10.6984, "possession_lost": 1.2157, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.6646, "aerial_lost": 2.4, "total_contest": 0.7781, "won_contest": 0.4377, "ball_recovery": 0.9402, "challenges_lost": 1.2, "fouls": 0.1945, "fouls_drawn": 0.1297, "blocks": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.0308, "shots_off_target": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0.1297, "ball_carries": 3.8903, "total_progression": 11.671, "progressive_carries": 0.8105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.345, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.345, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.308, "tackles": 0.4701, "tackles_won": 0.2918, "clearances": 0.5187, "aerial_won": 0.4539, "duels_won": 1.0536, "total_pass": 8.1049, "accurate_pass": 6.4839, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 14.59, "total_long_balls": 0.9726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5836, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4589, "crosses_total": 0.1783, "crosses_accurate": 0.081, "touches": 10.6984, "possession_lost": 1.2157, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.6646, "aerial_lost": 2.4, "total_contest": 0.7781, "won_contest": 0.4377, "ball_recovery": 0.9402, "challenges_lost": 1.2, "fouls": 0.1945, "fouls_drawn": 0.1297, "blocks": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.0308, "shots_off_target": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0.1297, "ball_carries": 3.8903, "total_progression": 11.671, "progressive_carries": 0.8105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.345, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3194, "fifa_rank": 2230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Johan Manzambi": { "player_id": 1518931, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 182, "market_value": 71000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4459, "expected_assists": 0.172, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5403, "expected_assists": 0.1571, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4462, "expected_assists": 0.1564, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1127, "combined_rank_score": 506.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 702.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8845, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Johan Manzambi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Min-jae", "ranking": 1122 }, { "player_name": "Hak-min Lee", "ranking": 1123 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin White", "ranking": 1124 }, { "player_name": "Đorđe Petrović", "ranking": 1125 }, { "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking": 1126 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rasul Yuldashev", "ranking": 1128 }, { "player_name": "Muhammad Yuldashev", "ranking": 1129 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 1130 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Diomande", "ranking": 1131 }, { "player_name": "Rui Silva", "ranking": 1132 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69342660781507, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5769739367188669, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0612, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.58)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8975, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1382, "goal_rate": 0.1382, "shots_on_target": 0.3402, "total_shots": 1.3103, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 18.8746, "accurate_pass": 15.8861, "duels_won": 3.4218, "total_long_balls": 1.2667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7602, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2022, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6839, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.1464, "possession_lost": 8.1491, "dispossessed": 0.3138, "duels_lost": 3.6546, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.7417, "interceptions": 0.3138, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4194, "clearances": 0.2267, "total_contest": 2.9869, "won_contest": 1.3878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6146, "blocks": 0.2267, "big_chances_created": 0.2267, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4298, "ball_carries": 12.5263, "total_progression": 61.4921, "progressive_carries": 3.2822, "shots_off_target": 0.9701 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.8407, "totalShots": 3.7155, "expectedGoals": 0.3852, "expectedAssists": 0.1469, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.034 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8975252509117126, "model_output": 0.8975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3537 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1251 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": 0.153, "total": 0.8975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503295 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.208143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.101339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.071728 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.061446 } ], "others_margin": 0.186924 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08508697897195816, "model_output": 0.0851, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 0.0851, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532548 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.185639 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.14072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.134709 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.101513 } ], "others_margin": 0.242047 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.18004068732261658, "model_output": 0.18, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0724, "total": 0.18, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.188292 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.137769 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.126269 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.109018 } ], "others_margin": 0.514117 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09884373098611832, "model_output": 0.0988, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.0988, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.674621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.36152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193194 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.06957 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067237 } ], "others_margin": 0.033804 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1381739228963852, "model_output": 0.1382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 0.1382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.299455 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.181802 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.159615 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.090947 } ], "others_margin": 0.074468 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3401542007923126, "model_output": 0.3402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1617 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": 0.043, "total": 0.3402, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.685175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.296768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148983 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.078343 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068738 } ], "others_margin": 0.134759 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3102304935455322, "model_output": 1.3102, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.792 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7338 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0962 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0628 } ], "others": 0.1454, "total": 1.3102, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.791997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.733802 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.096183 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.076299 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062798 } ], "others_margin": 0.145457 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.884523391723633, "model_output": 6.8845, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0853 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 6.8845, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085274 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.056543 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029775 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016483 } ], "others_margin": -0.004914 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0612, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9525, "expected_assists": 0.0903, "assists": 0.1911, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "expected_goals": 0.1049, "goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.1466, "shots_on_target": 0.361, "total_shots": 1.3905, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 20.0297, "accurate_pass": 16.8583, "duels_won": 3.6312, "total_long_balls": 1.3442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8067, "total_own_half_passes": 5.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.399, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2362, "possession_lost": 8.6478, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 3.8783, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.333, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4451, "clearances": 0.2406, "total_contest": 3.1697, "won_contest": 1.4727, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7134, "blocks": 0.2406, "big_chances_created": 0.2406, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4561, "ball_carries": 13.2929, "total_progression": 65.2554, "progressive_carries": 3.4831, "shots_off_target": 1.0295 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0612, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 23.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assists": 0.2089, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.69, "projection_minutes": 21.67, "minutes_scale": 1.0934, "appearance_probability": 0.577 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assists": 0.2089, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.577 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1147, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0987, "after": 0.0435 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1127, "fifa_rank": 702.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "scorer_weight": 0.0568, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0606, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.577, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "provider_weight": 0.0544, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.577, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Amadou Onana": { "player_id": 923973, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 195, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2772, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.04, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024014, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1685, "expected_assists": 0.2327, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1802, "expected_assists": 0.1239, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023979, "match_date": "2026-02-27", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2164, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3502, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025206, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0739, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025155, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 877, "combined_rank_score": 414.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 308.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.036, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 520.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7324, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amadou Onana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sung-joon Kim", "ranking": 872 }, { "player_name": "Derlan", "ranking": 873 }, { "player_name": "Vladimír Coufal", "ranking": 874 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Neuer", "ranking": 875 }, { "player_name": "Antonee Robinson", "ranking": 876 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Hyeong-jin", "ranking": 878 }, { "player_name": "Sancet", "ranking": 879 }, { "player_name": "Jaloliddin Jumaboyev", "ranking": 880 }, { "player_name": "Vivian", "ranking": 881 }, { "player_name": "Edmond Tapsoba", "ranking": 882 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.352352570132027, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5614705713696376, "market_value_adjustment": 1.014, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (25 historical appearances) to 23.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3244, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0391, "assist_rate": 0.0391, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1114, "total_shots": 0.4357, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 19.34, "total_pass": 7.6559, "accurate_pass": 6.777, "duels_won": 1.6862, "total_long_balls": 0.5335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2667, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2411, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5359, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.6709, "possession_lost": 1.3324, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6462, "aerial_won": 0.9189, "aerial_lost": 0.4194, "interceptions": 0.4935, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.5405, "clearances": 1.034, "total_contest": 0.2267, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4935, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6025, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3243 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-27", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.2138, "totalShots": 1.1151, "expectedGoals": 0.1041, "expectedAssists": 0.0437, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3196 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32442134618759155, "model_output": 0.3244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3841 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0696, "total": 0.3244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.087072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.081385 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.049953 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04037 } ], "others_margin": -0.194339 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017128054052591324, "model_output": 0.0171, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.647952 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.210271 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.142559 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.097261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.093712 } ], "others_margin": -0.420564 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.039097849279642105, "model_output": 0.0391, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.264798 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.190854 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.133658 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.081239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079108 } ], "others_margin": -0.217246 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04481962323188782, "model_output": 0.0448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548463 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.146877 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.138229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06928 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.066514 } ], "others_margin": -0.20314 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04885194078087807, "model_output": 0.0489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 0.0489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412208 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.127273 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.113769 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.087003 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.079533 } ], "others_margin": -0.063737 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11139853298664093, "model_output": 0.1114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1547 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0544, "total": 0.1114, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643694 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.148441 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.103421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.069834 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.057223 } ], "others_margin": -0.397767 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.43566980957984924, "model_output": 0.4357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4137 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0902, "total": 0.4357, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.413713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037449 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.026977 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.023542 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.016355 } ], "others_margin": -0.090274 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732378005981445, "model_output": 6.7324, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0427, "total": 6.7324, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088379 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.056054 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.026786 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009795 } ], "others_margin": -0.042668 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.329, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.4418, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 19.34, "total_pass": 7.7631, "accurate_pass": 6.8719, "duels_won": 1.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2865, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5854, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8343, "possession_lost": 1.3511, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6552, "aerial_won": 0.9318, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.5004, "tackles_won": 0.3182, "tackles": 0.5481, "clearances": 1.0485, "total_contest": 0.2299, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6389, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3288 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.3 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0478, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.1364, "total_shots": 0.5335, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 19.34, "minutes_scale": 1.2075, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0478, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.1364, "total_shots": 0.5335, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1364, "total_shots": 0.5335, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.561, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1364, "total_shots": 0.5335, "rating": 6.7324, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 877, "fifa_rank": 520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Alejandro Garnacho": { "player_id": 1135873, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1783, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1609, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023990, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1526, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4648, "expected_assists": 0.8643, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2716, "combined_rank_score": 941.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6291, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Garnacho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matteo Vitaioli", "ranking": 2711 }, { "player_name": "Georgi Milanov", "ranking": 2712 }, { "player_name": "Zakhar Volkov", "ranking": 2713 }, { "player_name": "Valerii Bondar", "ranking": 2714 }, { "player_name": "Sam Byram", "ranking": 2715 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ferhat Sağlam", "ranking": 2717 }, { "player_name": "Yong-hwan Kim", "ranking": 2718 }, { "player_name": "Naoaki Senaga", "ranking": 2719 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Kayumov", "ranking": 2720 }, { "player_name": "Renzo Saravia", "ranking": 2721 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.739, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0085, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (27 historical appearances) to 16.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0498, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.5313, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4409, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.313, "accurate_pass": 8.8849, "duels_won": 1.0011, "total_long_balls": 0.2137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2137, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2099, "crosses_total": 0.7215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0336, "touches": 15.5931, "possession_lost": 3.8714, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.6165, "aerial_lost": 0.1686, "total_contest": 0.8913, "won_contest": 0.4313, "ball_recovery": 0.9579, "challenges_lost": 0.1488, "fouls": 0.0891, "fouls_drawn": 0.365, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1805, "tackles": 0.1805, "clearances": 0.1699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2246, "ball_carries": 5.6298, "total_progression": 19.649, "progressive_carries": 0.8162, "shots_off_target": 0.3486 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0728, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9646, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.4888, "accuratePass": 12.349, "totalShots": 0.7695 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.049772970378398895, "model_output": 0.0498, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.0498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.603385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.171659 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.092687 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.048895 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.047712 } ], "others_margin": -0.416012 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07406331598758698, "model_output": 0.0741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503373 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.133167 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.070894 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040558 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037869 } ], "others_margin": -0.218992 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1826731264591217, "model_output": 0.1827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.217 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 0.1827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518678 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122332 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.078518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.063598 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052014 } ], "others_margin": -0.241654 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5312851071357727, "model_output": 0.5313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1365 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": -0.1261, "total": 0.5313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.136472 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.048751 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.040284 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.029292 } ], "others_margin": -0.126273 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.042003195732831955, "model_output": 0.042, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377663 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105302 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.093651 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.053609 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045461 } ], "others_margin": 0.037037 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4409388601779938, "model_output": 0.4409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0187, "total": 0.4409, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398935 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.048467 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039669 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027508 } ], "others_margin": 0.043561 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629055023193359, "model_output": 6.6291, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 6.6291, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065722 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013635 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011255 } ], "others_margin": -0.032287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.182, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2265, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "shots_on_target": 0.184, "total_shots": 0.5351, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2616, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.5 to 16.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.77, "projection_minutes": 23.54, "minutes_scale": 0.7124, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0358, "after": 0.0182 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0302, "after": 0.0171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2716, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "scorer_weight": 0.0219, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0233, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ollie Watkins": { "player_id": 555386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2447, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.5225, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1392, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.393, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2204, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024014, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6446, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2025, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 784, "combined_rank_score": 378.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 485.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8703, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 271.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9711, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ollie Watkins", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roderick Miranda", "ranking": 779 }, { "player_name": "Fabian Schär", "ranking": 780 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Shukurullaev", "ranking": 781 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-un Hong", "ranking": 782 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Khozhimirzaev", "ranking": 783 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 785 }, { "player_name": "Harry Maguire", "ranking": 786 }, { "player_name": "Ho-jun Son", "ranking": 787 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.27590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6034502969476605, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0065, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (37 historical appearances) to 26.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1958, "goals": 0.2204, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "shots_on_target": 0.5383, "total_shots": 1.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.3873, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 27.8, "total_pass": 6.5402, "accurate_pass": 4.6683, "duels_won": 2.3724, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8351, "possession_lost": 4.5216, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3.2243, "aerial_lost": 0.8389, "total_contest": 1.5711, "won_contest": 0.7262, "ball_recovery": 1.4911, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5405, "fouls_drawn": 0.5405, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2267, "clearances": 0.1927, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2667, "xgot": 0.6006, "offsides": 0.428, "ball_carries": 3.9825, "total_progression": 14.5834, "progressive_carries": 0.9189, "shots_off_target": 0.9804 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.6295, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.8233, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6709, "accuratePass": 9.8232, "totalShots": 2.9621 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19578304886817932, "model_output": 0.1958, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0929 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": 0.0382, "total": 0.1958, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.633995 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.210159 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.079592 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.071646 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044576 } ], "others_margin": 0.217208 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22038555145263672, "model_output": 0.2204, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0518, "total": 0.2204, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.6184 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.221552 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.090553 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.06225 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.061987 } ], "others_margin": 0.267665 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5383000373840332, "model_output": 0.5383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2415 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.1088, "total": 0.5383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.14372 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100845 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.071214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.060956 } ], "others_margin": 0.225721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5186845064163208, "model_output": 1.5187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0857 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0584 } ], "others": 0.2716, "total": 1.5187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.617416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.115444 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08569 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.058361 } ], "others_margin": 0.271533 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.028198232874274254, "model_output": 0.0282, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 0.0282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.121382 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.100965 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.095067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.080373 } ], "others_margin": -0.016517 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.38730427622795105, "model_output": 0.3873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2449 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.3873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446026 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.104266 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045502 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043495 } ], "others_margin": -0.05872 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.971113204956055, "model_output": 6.9711, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": 0.019, "total": 6.9711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.119261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063557 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061534 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.024087 } ], "others_margin": 0.019092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1971, "goals": 0.2218, "goal_rate": 0.2218, "shots_on_target": 0.5418, "total_shots": 1.5286, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "key_pass": 0.3898, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 27.8, "total_pass": 6.5827, "accurate_pass": 4.6986, "duels_won": 2.3878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0825, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 4.551, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.2453, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.5813, "won_contest": 0.7309, "ball_recovery": 1.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.544, "fouls_drawn": 0.544, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2282, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2684, "xgot": 0.6045, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 4.0084, "total_progression": 14.6782, "progressive_carries": 0.9249, "shots_off_target": 0.9868 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0065, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goals": 0.2096, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 27.8, "minutes_scale": 0.9452, "appearance_probability": 0.603 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goals": 0.2096, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.603 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1863, "after": 0.0771 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0268, "after": 0.0124 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 784, "fifa_rank": 271.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "scorer_weight": 0.0847, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0904, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "appearance_weight": 0.603, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0099, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0188, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.603, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alejandro Garnacho": { "player_id": 1135873, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1783, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1609, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023990, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1526, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4648, "expected_assists": 0.8643, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2716, "combined_rank_score": 941.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6291, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Garnacho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matteo Vitaioli", "ranking": 2711 }, { "player_name": "Georgi Milanov", "ranking": 2712 }, { "player_name": "Zakhar Volkov", "ranking": 2713 }, { "player_name": "Valerii Bondar", "ranking": 2714 }, { "player_name": "Sam Byram", "ranking": 2715 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ferhat Sağlam", "ranking": 2717 }, { "player_name": "Yong-hwan Kim", "ranking": 2718 }, { "player_name": "Naoaki Senaga", "ranking": 2719 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Kayumov", "ranking": 2720 }, { "player_name": "Renzo Saravia", "ranking": 2721 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.739, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0085, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (27 historical appearances) to 16.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0498, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.5313, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4409, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.313, "accurate_pass": 8.8849, "duels_won": 1.0011, "total_long_balls": 0.2137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2137, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2099, "crosses_total": 0.7215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0336, "touches": 15.5931, "possession_lost": 3.8714, "dispossessed": 0.75, "duels_lost": 1.6165, "aerial_lost": 0.1686, "total_contest": 0.8913, "won_contest": 0.4313, "ball_recovery": 0.9579, "challenges_lost": 0.1488, "fouls": 0.0891, "fouls_drawn": 0.365, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1805, "tackles": 0.1805, "clearances": 0.1699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2246, "ball_carries": 5.6298, "total_progression": 19.649, "progressive_carries": 0.8162, "shots_off_target": 0.3486 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0728, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9646, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.4888, "accuratePass": 12.349, "totalShots": 0.7695 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.049772970378398895, "model_output": 0.0498, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.0498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.603385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.171659 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.092687 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.048895 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.047712 } ], "others_margin": -0.416012 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07406331598758698, "model_output": 0.0741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503373 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.133167 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.070894 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040558 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037869 } ], "others_margin": -0.218992 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1826731264591217, "model_output": 0.1827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.217 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 0.1827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518678 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122332 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.078518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.063598 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052014 } ], "others_margin": -0.241654 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5312851071357727, "model_output": 0.5313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1365 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": -0.1261, "total": 0.5313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.136472 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.048751 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.040284 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.029292 } ], "others_margin": -0.126273 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.042003195732831955, "model_output": 0.042, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377663 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105302 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.093651 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.053609 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045461 } ], "others_margin": 0.037037 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4409388601779938, "model_output": 0.4409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0187, "total": 0.4409, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398935 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.048467 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039669 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027508 } ], "others_margin": 0.043561 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629055023193359, "model_output": 6.6291, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 6.6291, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065722 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013635 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011255 } ], "others_margin": -0.032287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.182, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2265, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "shots_on_target": 0.184, "total_shots": 0.5351, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2616, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.5 to 16.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.77, "projection_minutes": 23.54, "minutes_scale": 0.7124, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0358, "after": 0.0182 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0302, "after": 0.0171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2716, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "scorer_weight": 0.0219, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0233, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1311, "total_shots": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0.3168, "rating": 6.6291, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.2016, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "player_id": 965011, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2805, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.2177, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2325, "combined_rank_score": 844.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.62, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matteo Ruggeri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Asadbek Karimov", "ranking": 2320 }, { "player_name": "Sunnatilla Poyonov", "ranking": 2321 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Torres", "ranking": 2322 }, { "player_name": "Lars Traber", "ranking": 2323 }, { "player_name": "Adem Zorgane", "ranking": 2324 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oihan Sancet", "ranking": 2326 }, { "player_name": "Dušan Tadić", "ranking": 2327 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 2328 }, { "player_name": "Yerko Leiva", "ranking": 2329 }, { "player_name": "Sergiño Dest", "ranking": 2330 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.623, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0081, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 11.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4332, "tackles": 0.549, "tackles_won": 0.3094, "clearances": 1.0656, "aerial_won": 0.4045, "total_shots": 0.1634, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 14.9828, "accurate_pass": 12.7619, "duels_won": 0.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.9463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4053, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0387, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3707, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7233, "crosses_total": 1.0255, "crosses_accurate": 0.2491, "touches": 22.2232, "possession_lost": 3.9323, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9424, "aerial_lost": 0.2153, "total_contest": 0.1322, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.0661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1266, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9913, "total_progression": 3.7337, "progressive_carries": 0.4194, "key_pass": 0.0915, "shots_off_target": 0.1634 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.241, "aerialWon": 0.7362, "totalClearance_p90": 4.3036, "totalTackle": 0.6201, "defensive_actions": 2.0112 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.43324100971221924, "model_output": 0.4332, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4947 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.4332, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.855659 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.105802 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.036804 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026876 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.02219 } ], "others_margin": -0.022028 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5489940643310547, "model_output": 0.549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.798 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 0.549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.860292 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067067 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028448 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.026894 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.026514 } ], "others_margin": -0.078464 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3094169795513153, "model_output": 0.3094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4999 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0174, "total": 0.3094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.895429 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.074389 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035759 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.030419 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.026483 } ], "others_margin": 0.057814 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0655735731124878, "model_output": 1.0656, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0309 } ], "others": -0.0916, "total": 1.0656, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.908328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065252 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.043504 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.04171 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.026342 } ], "others_margin": -0.082474 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4045020043849945, "model_output": 0.4045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7686 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1614 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.4045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.809429 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.303536 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.05122 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040507 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.035739 } ], "others_margin": 0.009516 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16340778768062592, "model_output": 0.1634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0801 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.1634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.209277 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080081 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019257 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.014093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.00771 } ], "others_margin": -0.0093 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62003755569458, "model_output": 6.62, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0957, "total": 6.62, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017774 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015186 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.014151 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013875 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013618 } ], "others_margin": -0.095742 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4368, "tackles": 0.5534, "tackles_won": 0.3119, "clearances": 1.0742, "aerial_won": 0.4078, "total_shots": 0.1647, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1647 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0006)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4365, "tackles": 0.5534, "tackles_won": 0.3117, "clearances": 1.0742, "aerial_won": 0.4078, "total_shots": 0.1646, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1647 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0006, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2454, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 11.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.51, "projection_minutes": 22.09, "minutes_scale": 0.5211, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0164, "after": 0.0078 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2325, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0011, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles": 0.2883, "tackles_won": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5597, "aerial_won": 0.2125, "total_shots": 0.0858, "rating": 6.62, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0062, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0118, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ollie Watkins": { "player_id": 555386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2447, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.5225, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1392, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.393, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2204, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024014, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6446, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2025, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 784, "combined_rank_score": 378.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 485.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8703, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 271.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9711, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ollie Watkins", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roderick Miranda", "ranking": 779 }, { "player_name": "Fabian Schär", "ranking": 780 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Shukurullaev", "ranking": 781 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-un Hong", "ranking": 782 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Khozhimirzaev", "ranking": 783 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 785 }, { "player_name": "Harry Maguire", "ranking": 786 }, { "player_name": "Ho-jun Son", "ranking": 787 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.27590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6034502969476605, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0065, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (37 historical appearances) to 26.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1958, "goals": 0.2204, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "shots_on_target": 0.5383, "total_shots": 1.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.3873, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 27.8, "total_pass": 6.5402, "accurate_pass": 4.6683, "duels_won": 2.3724, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8351, "possession_lost": 4.5216, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3.2243, "aerial_lost": 0.8389, "total_contest": 1.5711, "won_contest": 0.7262, "ball_recovery": 1.4911, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5405, "fouls_drawn": 0.5405, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2267, "clearances": 0.1927, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2667, "xgot": 0.6006, "offsides": 0.428, "ball_carries": 3.9825, "total_progression": 14.5834, "progressive_carries": 0.9189, "shots_off_target": 0.9804 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.6295, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.8233, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6709, "accuratePass": 9.8232, "totalShots": 2.9621 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19578304886817932, "model_output": 0.1958, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0929 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": 0.0382, "total": 0.1958, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.633995 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.210159 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.079592 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.071646 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044576 } ], "others_margin": 0.217208 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22038555145263672, "model_output": 0.2204, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0518, "total": 0.2204, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.6184 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.221552 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.090553 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.06225 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.061987 } ], "others_margin": 0.267665 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5383000373840332, "model_output": 0.5383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2415 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.1088, "total": 0.5383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.14372 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100845 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.071214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.060956 } ], "others_margin": 0.225721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5186845064163208, "model_output": 1.5187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0857 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0584 } ], "others": 0.2716, "total": 1.5187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.617416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.115444 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08569 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.058361 } ], "others_margin": 0.271533 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.028198232874274254, "model_output": 0.0282, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 0.0282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.121382 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.100965 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.095067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.080373 } ], "others_margin": -0.016517 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.38730427622795105, "model_output": 0.3873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2449 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.3873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446026 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.104266 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045502 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043495 } ], "others_margin": -0.05872 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.971113204956055, "model_output": 6.9711, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": 0.019, "total": 6.9711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.119261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063557 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061534 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.024087 } ], "others_margin": 0.019092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1971, "goals": 0.2218, "goal_rate": 0.2218, "shots_on_target": 0.5418, "total_shots": 1.5286, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "key_pass": 0.3898, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 27.8, "total_pass": 6.5827, "accurate_pass": 4.6986, "duels_won": 2.3878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0825, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 4.551, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.2453, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.5813, "won_contest": 0.7309, "ball_recovery": 1.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.544, "fouls_drawn": 0.544, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2282, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2684, "xgot": 0.6045, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 4.0084, "total_progression": 14.6782, "progressive_carries": 0.9249, "shots_off_target": 0.9868 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0065, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goals": 0.2096, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 27.8, "minutes_scale": 0.9452, "appearance_probability": 0.603 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goals": 0.2096, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1863, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.603 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1863, "after": 0.0771 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0268, "after": 0.0124 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 784, "fifa_rank": 271.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "scorer_weight": 0.0847, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0904, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "appearance_weight": 0.603, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5121, "total_shots": 1.4448, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.3684, "rating": 6.9711, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 6.2218, "accurate_pass": 4.441, "duels_won": 2.2569, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8587, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2103, "possession_lost": 4.3015, "dispossessed": 1.0065, "duels_lost": 3.0674, "aerial_lost": 0.8444, "total_contest": 1.4946, "won_contest": 0.6908, "ball_recovery": 1.4185, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5142, "fouls_drawn": 0.5142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2157, "clearances": 0.1834, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2537, "xgot": 0.2366, "offsides": 0.4308, "ball_carries": 3.7886, "total_progression": 13.8735, "progressive_carries": 0.8742, "shots_off_target": 0.9327, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0724, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "finishing_factor": 1.0986, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0099, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.0188, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.603, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Johan Manzambi": { "player_id": 1518931, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 182, "market_value": 71000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4459, "expected_assists": 0.172, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5403, "expected_assists": 0.1571, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4462, "expected_assists": 0.1564, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1127, "combined_rank_score": 506.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 702.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8845, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Johan Manzambi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Min-jae", "ranking": 1122 }, { "player_name": "Hak-min Lee", "ranking": 1123 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin White", "ranking": 1124 }, { "player_name": "Đorđe Petrović", "ranking": 1125 }, { "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking": 1126 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rasul Yuldashev", "ranking": 1128 }, { "player_name": "Muhammad Yuldashev", "ranking": 1129 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 1130 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Diomande", "ranking": 1131 }, { "player_name": "Rui Silva", "ranking": 1132 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69342660781507, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5769739367188669, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0612, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.58)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8975, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1382, "goal_rate": 0.1382, "shots_on_target": 0.3402, "total_shots": 1.3103, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 18.8746, "accurate_pass": 15.8861, "duels_won": 3.4218, "total_long_balls": 1.2667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7602, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2022, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6839, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.1464, "possession_lost": 8.1491, "dispossessed": 0.3138, "duels_lost": 3.6546, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.7417, "interceptions": 0.3138, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4194, "clearances": 0.2267, "total_contest": 2.9869, "won_contest": 1.3878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6146, "blocks": 0.2267, "big_chances_created": 0.2267, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4298, "ball_carries": 12.5263, "total_progression": 61.4921, "progressive_carries": 3.2822, "shots_off_target": 0.9701 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.8407, "totalShots": 3.7155, "expectedGoals": 0.3852, "expectedAssists": 0.1469, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.034 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8975252509117126, "model_output": 0.8975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3537 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1251 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": 0.153, "total": 0.8975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503295 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.208143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.101339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.071728 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.061446 } ], "others_margin": 0.186924 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08508697897195816, "model_output": 0.0851, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 0.0851, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532548 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.185639 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.14072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.134709 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.101513 } ], "others_margin": 0.242047 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.18004068732261658, "model_output": 0.18, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0724, "total": 0.18, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.188292 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.137769 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.126269 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.109018 } ], "others_margin": 0.514117 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09884373098611832, "model_output": 0.0988, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.0988, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.674621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.36152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193194 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.06957 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067237 } ], "others_margin": 0.033804 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1381739228963852, "model_output": 0.1382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 0.1382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.299455 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.181802 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.159615 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.090947 } ], "others_margin": 0.074468 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3401542007923126, "model_output": 0.3402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1617 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": 0.043, "total": 0.3402, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.685175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.296768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148983 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.078343 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068738 } ], "others_margin": 0.134759 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3102304935455322, "model_output": 1.3102, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.792 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7338 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0962 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0628 } ], "others": 0.1454, "total": 1.3102, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.791997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.733802 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.096183 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.076299 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062798 } ], "others_margin": 0.145457 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.884523391723633, "model_output": 6.8845, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0853 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 6.8845, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085274 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.056543 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029775 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016483 } ], "others_margin": -0.004914 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0612, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9525, "expected_assists": 0.0903, "assists": 0.1911, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "expected_goals": 0.1049, "goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.1466, "shots_on_target": 0.361, "total_shots": 1.3905, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 21.67, "total_pass": 20.0297, "accurate_pass": 16.8583, "duels_won": 3.6312, "total_long_balls": 1.3442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8067, "total_own_half_passes": 5.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4594, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.399, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2362, "possession_lost": 8.6478, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 3.8783, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.333, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4451, "clearances": 0.2406, "total_contest": 3.1697, "won_contest": 1.4727, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7134, "blocks": 0.2406, "big_chances_created": 0.2406, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4561, "ball_carries": 13.2929, "total_progression": 65.2554, "progressive_carries": 3.4831, "shots_off_target": 1.0295 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0612, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 23.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assists": 0.2089, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.69, "projection_minutes": 21.67, "minutes_scale": 1.0934, "appearance_probability": 0.577 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assists": 0.2089, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4987, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.89 (squad xG sum 1.2961, xG scale 0.6867, xA scale 0.7646, team xA 0.58 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.89, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2961, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7566, "team_expected_assists": 0.5785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6867, "xa_scale": 0.7646, "opponent_lambda": 2.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.577 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1147, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0987, "after": 0.0435 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1127, "fifa_rank": 702.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "scorer_weight": 0.0568, "squad_weight_total": 0.9371, "weight_share": 0.0606, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.577, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8845, "minutes": 23.69, "total_pass": 21.9, "accurate_pass": 18.4324, "duels_won": 3.9703, "total_long_balls": 1.4697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 5.503, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8758, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5568, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6197, "possession_lost": 9.4553, "dispossessed": 0.333, "duels_lost": 4.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.8483, "interceptions": 0.3641, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4867, "clearances": 0.2631, "total_contest": 3.4657, "won_contest": 1.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8734, "blocks": 0.2631, "big_chances_created": 0.2631, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1976, "ball_carries": 14.5341, "total_progression": 71.3486, "progressive_carries": 3.8083, "shots_off_target": 1.1256, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.577, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.103, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.2089, "provider_weight": 0.0544, "squad_weight_total": 0.5267, "weight_share": 0.1032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.577, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.89, "expected_assists": 0.58, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 413, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } }, "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Erling Haaland": { "player_id": 839956, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 195, "market_value": 240000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9851, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 4, "expected_assists": 0.098, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.5175, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6266, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0934, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1071, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8668, "expected_assists": 0.2287, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3995, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0873, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8665, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0642, "expected_assists": 0.4759, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6641, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7433, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2337, "expected_assists": 0.5618, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.093, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5237, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3, "combined_rank_score": 10.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 17.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2125, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.7052, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0126, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 5.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 1.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5313, "goals": 0.8608, "goal_rate": 0.8608, "shots_on_target": 1.3726, "total_shots": 3.0718, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.8635, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.5601, "accurate_pass": 8.4834, "duels_won": 3.1421, "total_long_balls": 0.4026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2392, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.494, "crosses_total": 0.0343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0131, "touches": 24.4814, "possession_lost": 6.9647, "dispossessed": 0.8976, "duels_lost": 4.3552, "aerial_lost": 1.9648, "total_contest": 1.2235, "won_contest": 0.6942, "ball_recovery": 1.7213, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.894, "fouls_drawn": 0.7583, "assists": 0.0789, "assist_rate": 0.0789, "interceptions": 0.1543, "tackles_won": 0.0564, "tackles": 0.2221, "clearances": 1.1617, "blocks": 0.1292, "big_chances_created": 0.4574, "big_chances_missed": 0.7572, "xgot": 0.8184, "offsides": 0.2538, "ball_carries": 6.1699, "total_progression": 25.6544, "progressive_carries": 1.4589, "shots_off_target": 1.6992 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.746, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.2881, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.4652, "accuratePass": 8.4463, "totalShots": 3.6871 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.5313315987586975, "model_output": 0.5313, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0724 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 } ], "others": 0.1165, "total": 0.5313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.311629 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.208073 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.088783 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.066948 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064531 } ], "others_margin": 0.247601 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.8608242869377136, "model_output": 0.8608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0867 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0362 } ], "others": 0.3252, "total": 0.8608, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.356687 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.27382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.143129 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.130066 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.069987 } ], "others_margin": 0.474428 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.3725649118423462, "model_output": 1.3726, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2044 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1682 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0748 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0563 } ], "others": 0.2369, "total": 1.3726, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.322959 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.204695 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.100208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071813 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.050802 } ], "others_margin": 0.189467 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 3.071814775466919, "model_output": 3.0718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.62 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5867 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1332 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0929 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0619 } ], "others": 0.1964, "total": 3.0718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.620035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.586733 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.133213 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.092936 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.061852 } ], "others_margin": 0.196295 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06582396477460861, "model_output": 0.0658, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0658, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.248725 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.128294 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.099649 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.099375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.046647 } ], "others_margin": -0.052316 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8635277152061462, "model_output": 0.8635, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1864 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.116 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0369 } ], "others": -0.0438, "total": 0.8635, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.242058 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.125573 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.066682 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054896 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041482 } ], "others_margin": -0.049278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.70518684387207, "model_output": 7.7052, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1803 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1335 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0918 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0637 } ], "others": 0.3745, "total": 7.7052, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180336 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.133491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093149 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.091788 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.063677 } ], "others_margin": 0.374463 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.538, "goals": 0.8717, "goal_rate": 0.8717, "shots_on_target": 1.3899, "total_shots": 3.1105, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.9053, "fouls_drawn": 0.7679, "assists": 0.0799, "assist_rate": 0.0799, "interceptions": 0.1562, "tackles_won": 0.0571, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.7667, "xgot": 0.8287, "offsides": 0.257, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 1.7206 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 240000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.0126, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.538, "goals": 0.8726, "goal_rate": 0.8726, "shots_on_target": 1.3995, "total_shots": 3.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assists": 0.0792, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.7667, "xgot": 0.8287, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 1.7206 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9746, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.1105, "after": 3.1267 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.3899, "after": 1.3995 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9053, "after": 0.897 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.538, "goals": 0.8726, "goal_rate": 0.8726, "shots_on_target": 1.3995, "total_shots": 3.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assists": 0.0792, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.7667, "xgot": 0.8287, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 1.7206 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6708, "goals": 1.088, "goal_rate": 1.088, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assists": 0.0792, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.0333, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "skill_edge": 0.148, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.9, "defender_skill": 0.5712, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "market_value": 19800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6892 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 } ], "xg_override": 0.6708 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.1267, "after": 3.8987 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.7206, "after": 2.1454 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.3995, "after": 1.745 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.8726, "after": 1.088 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.8287, "after": 1.0333 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.7667, "after": 0.956 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.538, "after": 0.6708 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6708, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.0333, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9851, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.098, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.5175, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1071 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.6708, "after": 0.9851 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0667, "after": 0.098 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 91.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9851, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.098, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.5175, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1071, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 91.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9851, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.098, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.5175, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6266, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1071, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6266, "goal_rate": 1.088, "scorer_weight": 1.2314, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.4016, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9851, "goal_rate": 1.088, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1.745, "total_shots": 3.8987, "expected_assists": 0.098, "key_pass": 0.8744, "rating": 7.7052, "minutes": 87.71, "total_pass": 12.7184, "accurate_pass": 8.5903, "duels_won": 3.1817, "total_long_balls": 0.4077, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5632, "crosses_total": 0.0344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0133, "touches": 24.7899, "possession_lost": 7.0525, "dispossessed": 0.9089, "duels_lost": 4.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.9896, "total_contest": 1.2389, "won_contest": 0.7029, "ball_recovery": 1.743, "challenges_lost": 0.2512, "fouls": 0.897, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1548, "tackles_won": 0.0566, "tackles": 0.2249, "clearances": 1.1763, "blocks": 0.1308, "big_chances_created": 0.4632, "big_chances_missed": 0.956, "xgot": 1.5175, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 6.2476, "total_progression": 25.9776, "progressive_carries": 1.4773, "shots_off_target": 2.1454, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6266, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0934, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1071, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0792, "provider_weight": 0.1085, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0564, "creation_factor": 1.1071, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jérémy Doku": { "player_id": 934386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 173, "market_value": 70000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2909, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.6084, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 250, "progressive_carries": 12, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2524, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2847, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "expected_assists": 0.3561, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2288, "expected_assists": 0.3193, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0518, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0927, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1645, "expected_assists": 0.4616, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1286, "expected_assists": 0.3258, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 14, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0798, "expected_assists": 0.3695, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025039, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "expected_assists": 0.1113, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 111, "combined_rank_score": 109.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 14.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.325, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.4293, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jérémy Doku", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Paulo Dybala", "ranking": 106 }, { "player_name": "Eric García", "ranking": 107 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Castellón", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Ben White", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 110 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bruno Lamas", "ranking": 112 }, { "player_name": "Jun-ho Son", "ranking": 113 }, { "player_name": "Luka Modrić", "ranking": 114 }, { "player_name": "Jean Meneses", "ranking": 115 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 116 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.176, "goals": 0.3163, "goal_rate": 0.3163, "shots_on_target": 0.9443, "total_shots": 2.468, "expected_assists": 0.225, "key_pass": 2.4248, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.0405, "accurate_pass": 32.6285, "duels_won": 7.5089, "total_long_balls": 0.9416, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6641, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3081, "crosses_total": 3.0002, "crosses_accurate": 0.8623, "touches": 62.869, "possession_lost": 16.912, "dispossessed": 1.6208, "duels_lost": 5.9859, "aerial_lost": 0.2711, "total_contest": 5.7246, "won_contest": 3.1231, "ball_recovery": 4.0005, "challenges_lost": 0.5208, "fouls": 0.9718, "fouls_drawn": 3.1546, "assists": 0.2966, "assist_rate": 0.2966, "interceptions": 0.5128, "tackles_won": 0.556, "tackles": 1.1315, "clearances": 0.182, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6765, "big_chances_missed": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.368, "offsides": 0.0404, "ball_carries": 31.2921, "total_progression": 246.7879, "progressive_carries": 11.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.5237 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 9.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1056, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 23.1984, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 19.1361, "accuratePass": 22.7167, "totalShots": 1.6115 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17597736418247223, "model_output": 0.176, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0719 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0555 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 0.176, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.310028 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.230457 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.073395 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063088 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058001 } ], "others_margin": -0.128728 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3163411319255829, "model_output": 0.3163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.3163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.298955 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.126915 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.107966 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.095143 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.060083 } ], "others_margin": 0.011816 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9443164467811584, "model_output": 0.9443, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2057 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0687 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.044 } ], "others": 0.0369, "total": 0.9443, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.324648 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.102633 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.080248 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.065783 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047332 } ], "others_margin": 0.039987 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.468003273010254, "model_output": 2.468, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5587 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1705 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1676 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.1491 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0901 } ], "others": 0.2495, "total": 2.468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.55867 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.170524 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167573 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.149053 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.090138 } ], "others_margin": 0.249402 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.2250426858663559, "model_output": 0.225, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0845, "total": 0.225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.221293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.216217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.152575 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10289 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.086188 } ], "others_margin": 0.471337 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.424773931503296, "model_output": 2.4248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2005 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1484 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1392 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1088 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1128 } ], "others": 1.0346, "total": 2.4248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.258261 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.155662 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.126842 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.088988 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.084601 } ], "others_margin": 0.556371 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.429308891296387, "model_output": 7.4293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0561 } ], "others": 0.3432, "total": 7.4293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076131 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.067494 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.061038 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.057148 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.056135 } ], "others_margin": 0.343082 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1785, "goals": 0.3209, "goal_rate": 0.3209, "shots_on_target": 0.9579, "total_shots": 2.5036, "expected_assists": 0.2283, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assists": 0.3009, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0356, "xgot": 0.3733, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.5456 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1785, "goals": 0.3209, "goal_rate": 0.3209, "shots_on_target": 0.9579, "total_shots": 2.5036, "expected_assists": 0.2283, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assists": 0.3009, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0356, "xgot": 0.3733, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.5456 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goals": 0.3562, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.2283, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assists": 0.3009, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.4143, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "skill_edge": 0.1348, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.8707, "defender_skill": 0.5712, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "market_value": 19800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6892 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 } ], "xg_override": 0.1981 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.5036, "after": 2.7787 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5456, "after": 1.7155 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9579, "after": 1.0632 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3733, "after": 0.4143 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3209, "after": 0.3562 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1785, "after": 0.1981 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.2283, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.4143, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2909, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.6084, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1981, "after": 0.2909 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2283, "after": 0.3351 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2909, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.6084, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2909, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.6084, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2524, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "scorer_weight": 0.3636, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.1186, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2909, "goal_rate": 0.3562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0632, "total_shots": 2.7787, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "key_pass": 2.4597, "rating": 7.4293, "minutes": 81.91, "total_pass": 39.6027, "accurate_pass": 33.0984, "duels_won": 7.617, "total_long_balls": 0.9552, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6737, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.6743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.7013, "crosses_total": 3.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.8747, "touches": 63.7743, "possession_lost": 17.1555, "dispossessed": 1.6441, "duels_lost": 6.0721, "aerial_lost": 0.275, "total_contest": 5.807, "won_contest": 3.1681, "ball_recovery": 4.0581, "challenges_lost": 0.5283, "fouls": 0.9858, "fouls_drawn": 3.2, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0.5202, "tackles_won": 0.564, "tackles": 1.1478, "clearances": 0.1846, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 0.0395, "xgot": 0.6084, "offsides": 0.041, "ball_carries": 31.7427, "total_progression": 250.3416, "progressive_carries": 11.8688, "shots_off_target": 1.7155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2524, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2847, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2847, "assist_rate": 0.3009, "provider_weight": 0.4189, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.2178, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Phil Foden": { "player_id": 859765, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 171, "market_value": 62000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2896, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3052, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2284, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.263, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2514, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.0138, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6178, "expected_assists": 0.5369, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 4.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6151, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.8716, "expected_assists": 0.4531, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1203, "expected_assists": 0.3997, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 9.0, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.5969, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6655, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 336, "combined_rank_score": 224.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 250.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 198.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9851, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 }, { "player_name": "Steven Benda", "ranking": 338 }, { "player_name": "Iker Monreal Agundez", "ranking": 339 }, { "player_name": "Exequiel Palacios", "ranking": 340 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Locatelli", "ranking": 341 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0123, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 171.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.0526315789473684, "shots_per90": 2.63, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 1.0526315789473684)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0364, "expected_assists": 0.1948, "assists": 0.1917, "assist_rate": 0.1917, "expected_goals": 0.2078, "goals": 0.2258, "goal_rate": 0.2258, "shots_on_target": 0.6881, "total_shots": 1.7023, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 44.4549, "accurate_pass": 38.8509, "duels_won": 3.6689, "total_long_balls": 2.8342, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9462, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.3095, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5413, "crosses_total": 3.7274, "crosses_accurate": 1.3673, "touches": 61.7301, "possession_lost": 12.1108, "dispossessed": 1.5919, "duels_lost": 4.2361, "aerial_won": 0.5073, "aerial_lost": 0.4472, "interceptions": 0.2421, "tackles_won": 0.4434, "tackles": 1.2932, "clearances": 0.5127, "total_contest": 2.0552, "won_contest": 0.8331, "challenges_lost": 0.4543, "fouls": 0.5505, "fouls_drawn": 1.0353, "blocks": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.8602, "big_chances_missed": 0.2749, "xgot": 0.1556, "ball_carries": 17.8221, "total_progression": 33.7852, "progressive_carries": 1.7806, "shots_off_target": 1.0142 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 4.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.8428, "totalShots": 1.3678, "expectedGoals": 0.296, "expectedAssists": 0.2141, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4287 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.03640079498291, "model_output": 2.0364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.2034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1438 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1299 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0864 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0656 } ], "others": 0.5128, "total": 2.0364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.204878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.099499 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.06109 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044042 } ], "others_margin": 0.290131 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.19480673968791962, "model_output": 0.1948, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0672, "total": 0.1948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.144092 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.119874 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115388 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.076544 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.060356 } ], "others_margin": 0.42343 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1917356550693512, "model_output": 0.1917, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0568, "total": 0.1917, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.147616 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073901 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.072186 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.072033 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.067865 } ], "others_margin": 0.352025 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.20784759521484375, "model_output": 0.2078, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 0.2078, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.425437 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.092464 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086869 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042718 } ], "others_margin": 0.048213 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22584901750087738, "model_output": 0.2258, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0438, "total": 0.2258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.180622 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.178932 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.089145 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.07958 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077135 } ], "others_margin": 0.216143 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6881480813026428, "model_output": 0.6881, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.0934, "total": 0.6881, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.204582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.189275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.095154 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.05958 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052427 } ], "others_margin": 0.146004 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7023006677627563, "model_output": 1.7023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2829 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1615 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0808 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0584 } ], "others": 0.1727, "total": 1.7023, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.282893 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161475 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.080787 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.065931 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058417 } ], "others_margin": 0.172736 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.985103130340576, "model_output": 6.9851, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0281, "total": 6.9851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063503 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04251 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032738 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026778 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020419 } ], "others_margin": 0.028122 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1972, "assists": 0.1941, "assist_rate": 0.1941, "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goals": 0.2286, "goal_rate": 0.2286, "shots_on_target": 0.6966, "total_shots": 1.7233, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7732, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.5135, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2451, "tackles_won": 0.4489, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5573, "fouls_drawn": 1.048, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.1575, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0267 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 62000000, "quality_factor": 0.8569, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1972, "assists": 0.2006, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goals": 0.2264, "goal_rate": 0.2264, "shots_on_target": 0.6899, "total_shots": 1.7276, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.5135, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.1575, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0267 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8271, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.7732, "after": 3.7871 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5573, "after": 0.5645 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6966, "after": 0.6899 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.048, "after": 1.0546 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1941, "after": 0.2006 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1972, "assists": 0.2006, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goals": 0.2264, "goal_rate": 0.2264, "shots_on_target": 0.6899, "total_shots": 1.7276, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.5135, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.1575, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0267 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1972, "assists": 0.2006, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "expected_goals": 0.2078, "goals": 0.2236, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "skill_edge": 0.0195, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8569, "defender_skill": 0.8135, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "market_value": 33000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8135 } ], "xg_override": 0.2078 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5135, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7276, "after": 1.706 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0267, "after": 1.0139 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6899, "after": 0.6813 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1972, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2078, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.2896, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3052, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.2284, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.0138 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2078, "after": 0.3052 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1972, "after": 0.2896 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.2896, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3052, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.2284, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.0138, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 336, "fifa_rank": 198.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.2896, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3052, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.2284, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.263, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.0138, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.263, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "scorer_weight": 0.3239, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.1056, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0614, "expected_assists": 0.2896, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3052, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.706, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 45.0017, "accurate_pass": 39.3288, "duels_won": 3.714, "total_long_balls": 2.8691, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9701, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4609, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.8678, "crosses_total": 3.7871, "crosses_accurate": 1.3841, "touches": 62.4894, "possession_lost": 12.2598, "dispossessed": 1.6115, "duels_lost": 4.2882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4527, "interceptions": 0.2428, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 1.3091, "clearances": 0.519, "total_contest": 2.0805, "won_contest": 0.8433, "challenges_lost": 0.4599, "fouls": 0.5645, "fouls_drawn": 1.0546, "blocks": 0.0708, "big_chances_created": 0.8708, "big_chances_missed": 0.2748, "xgot": 0.2284, "ball_carries": 18.0413, "total_progression": 34.2008, "progressive_carries": 1.8025, "shots_off_target": 1.0139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ian Maatsen", "opponent_faced": "Ian Maatsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.263, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2514, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.0138, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2514, "assist_rate": 0.2006, "provider_weight": 0.2936, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.1527, "creation_factor": 1.0138, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "player_id": 1564180, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 185, "market_value": 98000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0782, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9915, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1194, "combined_rank_score": 525.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9516, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 }, { "player_name": "Murodbek Rahmatov", "ranking": 1196 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Lienhart", "ranking": 1197 }, { "player_name": "Seung-Yong Jeong", "ranking": 1198 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dae-Woo", "ranking": 1199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.501, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.501, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0646, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6969, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0513, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "shots_on_target": 0.1379, "total_shots": 0.5797, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 36.1045, "accurate_pass": 33.3618, "duels_won": 2.7372, "total_long_balls": 2.7016, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6676, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4554, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9064, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.9399, "possession_lost": 4.9394, "dispossessed": 0.6276, "duels_lost": 2.1496, "aerial_won": 0.3138, "aerial_lost": 0.3138, "interceptions": 0.5065, "tackles_won": 0.9414, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.9414, "total_contest": 1.1682, "won_contest": 0.5406, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5806, "fouls_drawn": 0.9414, "blocks": 0.4535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.5746, "total_progression": 42.0088, "progressive_carries": 1.0131, "shots_off_target": 0.4418 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.2365, "totalShots": 0.2667, "expectedGoals": 0.0062, "expectedAssists": 0.0385, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6969058513641357, "model_output": 0.6969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1261 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1143 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0837 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0639 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": -0.1043, "total": 0.6969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131914 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.118765 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.096917 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.080915 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05455 } ], "others_margin": -0.139465 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05199633538722992, "model_output": 0.052, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.052, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.18505 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.159154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144401 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.078066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076506 } ], "others_margin": -0.303621 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05125246196985245, "model_output": 0.0513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.0513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.187387 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.127033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.11484 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1018 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.092678 } ], "others_margin": -0.113589 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03881607949733734, "model_output": 0.0388, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.403186 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.242269 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.156106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141528 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.040557 } ], "others_margin": -0.183412 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06269068270921707, "model_output": 0.0627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.0627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.271635 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.163067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087104 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.086565 } ], "others_margin": 0.018987 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1379135400056839, "model_output": 0.1379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 0.1379, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.311471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.22916 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135376 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.110049 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.084317 } ], "others_margin": -0.260734 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5797197818756104, "model_output": 0.5797, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.102 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": -0.1738, "total": 0.5797, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.281292 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058006 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048639 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042462 } ], "others_margin": -0.173699 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9515814781188965, "model_output": 6.9516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0379 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 6.9516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.061267 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037926 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.029139 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.024775 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022402 } ], "others_margin": -0.021701 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0646, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1468, "total_shots": 0.6172, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 0.3341, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5392, "tackles_won": 1.0022, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6181, "fouls_drawn": 1.0022, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4703 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 98000000, "quality_factor": 0.8926, "boost_factor": 1.0646, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0665, "shots_on_target": 0.1464, "total_shots": 0.6157, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 0.3341, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4703 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9703, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5392, "after": 0.5614 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0665, "shots_on_target": 0.1464, "total_shots": 0.6167, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 0.3341, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4703 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0691, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "skill_edge": 0.0225, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.8969, "defender_skill": 0.847, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.847 } ], "xg_override": 0.0429 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3341, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6167, "after": 0.6407 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4703, "after": 0.4886 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1464, "after": 0.1521 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9915 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0429, "after": 0.063 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0814 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9915, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1194, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9915, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "scorer_weight": 0.0788, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.6407, "rating": 6.9516, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 38.4369, "accurate_pass": 35.517, "duels_won": 2.914, "total_long_balls": 2.8761, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7753, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.583, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.934, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7784, "possession_lost": 5.2585, "dispossessed": 0.6681, "duels_lost": 2.2885, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.5614, "tackles_won": 0.9998, "tackles": 1.0022, "clearances": 1.0022, "total_contest": 1.2437, "won_contest": 0.5755, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6166, "fouls_drawn": 0.9998, "blocks": 0.4828, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4515, "total_progression": 44.7226, "progressive_carries": 1.0785, "shots_off_target": 0.4886, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0782, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9915, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0782, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "provider_weight": 0.0807, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.042, "creation_factor": 0.9915, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Enzo Fernández": { "player_id": 974505, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 177, "market_value": 116000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.282, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 52, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2212, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 85, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1787, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2457, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 40, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4474, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 63, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.2607, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.127, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1263, "expected_assists": 0.1198, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "expected_assists": 0.4792, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2872, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1456, "expected_assists": 0.2943, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 176, "combined_rank_score": 148.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 210.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.18, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 87.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1571, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Reinaldo", "ranking": 171 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Martínez", "ranking": 172 }, { "player_name": "João Pedro", "ranking": 173 }, { "player_name": "Dostonbek Khamdamov", "ranking": 174 }, { "player_name": "Deniz Undav", "ranking": 175 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rey Manaj", "ranking": 177 }, { "player_name": "Seon-min Kim", "ranking": 178 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Merino", "ranking": 179 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Honório", "ranking": 180 }, { "player_name": "Giovino Flamarion", "ranking": 181 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0125, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 26.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Chelsea, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8778, "expected_assists": 0.1896, "assists": 0.1233, "assist_rate": 0.1233, "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1861, "goal_rate": 0.1861, "shots_on_target": 0.5801, "total_shots": 1.539, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.1764, "accurate_pass": 51.8163, "duels_won": 4.1931, "total_long_balls": 3.945, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6548, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9148, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.745, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.2616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.0713, "crosses_total": 3.7136, "crosses_accurate": 0.83, "touches": 76.6414, "possession_lost": 14.2995, "dispossessed": 0.8843, "duels_lost": 5.2165, "aerial_won": 0.8965, "aerial_lost": 0.917, "interceptions": 0.7897, "tackles_won": 0.5364, "tackles": 1.1109, "clearances": 0.7166, "total_contest": 1.1413, "won_contest": 0.4542, "challenges_lost": 1.5785, "fouls": 1.2586, "fouls_drawn": 1.7316, "blocks": 0.2293, "big_chances_created": 0.2342, "big_chances_missed": 0.1399, "xgot": 0.1497, "ball_carries": 21.2417, "total_progression": 84.2269, "progressive_carries": 1.973, "shots_off_target": 0.9589 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 40.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.7649, "totalShots": 1.5851, "expectedGoals": 0.165, "expectedAssists": 0.1771, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.7782 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.8777735233306885, "model_output": 1.8778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1409 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1365 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1197 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0542 } ], "others": 0.4621, "total": 1.8778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.146312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123859 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.097258 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.052739 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.039011 } ], "others_margin": 0.282414 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.18962648510932922, "model_output": 0.1896, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0499, "total": 0.1896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.148786 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.115341 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099761 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.074482 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.047873 } ], "others_margin": 0.305778 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12327389419078827, "model_output": 0.1233, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.1233, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.09625 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.081128 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.070174 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066216 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.064866 } ], "others_margin": 0.097714 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13337242603302002, "model_output": 0.1334, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.1334, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.259758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.12629 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.123874 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086013 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061624 } ], "others_margin": -0.059502 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18612779676914215, "model_output": 0.1861, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0201, "total": 0.1861, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.304757 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.204704 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.190628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.134003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06071 } ], "others_margin": 0.114577 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5801163911819458, "model_output": 0.5801, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.092 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0989 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.06 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": 0.0578, "total": 0.5801, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.248461 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.212388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.123336 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.094995 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.038813 } ], "others_margin": 0.104926 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.539014458656311, "model_output": 1.539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1229 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0607 } ], "others": 0.1206, "total": 1.539, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.401691 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122899 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.082559 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.081238 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.060687 } ], "others_margin": 0.12064 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.157102108001709, "model_output": 7.1571, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0838 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0324 } ], "others": 0.0747, "total": 7.1571, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.110951 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083811 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03594 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035044 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.032373 } ], "others_margin": 0.07481 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.192, "assists": 0.1248, "assist_rate": 0.1248, "expected_goals": 0.135, "goals": 0.1885, "goal_rate": 0.1885, "shots_on_target": 0.5874, "total_shots": 1.5583, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.76, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 0.9077, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7996, "tackles_won": 0.5431, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2743, "fouls_drawn": 1.7532, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1416, "xgot": 0.1516, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9709 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 116000000, "quality_factor": 0.897, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.192, "assists": 0.1246, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "expected_goals": 0.135, "goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "shots_on_target": 0.5866, "total_shots": 1.5561, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 0.9077, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1416, "xgot": 0.1516, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9709 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9531, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.76, "after": 3.7548 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.192, "assists": 0.1246, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "expected_goals": 0.135, "goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "shots_on_target": 0.5866, "total_shots": 1.5575, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 0.9077, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1416, "xgot": 0.1516, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9709 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.192, "assists": 0.1246, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "expected_goals": 0.1341, "goals": 0.1869, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.1506, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "skill_edge": 0.0234, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8989, "defender_skill": 0.847, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.847 } ], "xg_override": 0.1341 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9077, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5575, "after": 1.5469 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9709, "after": 0.9643 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.192, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1341, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.1506, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.282, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.2212, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1341, "after": 0.1969 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.192, "after": 0.282 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.282, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.2212, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 176, "fifa_rank": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.282, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.2212, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1787, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "scorer_weight": 0.2461, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0803, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9012, "expected_assists": 0.282, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5826, "total_shots": 1.5469, "rating": 7.1571, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 60.9286, "accurate_pass": 52.464, "duels_won": 4.2455, "total_long_balls": 3.9943, "accurate_long_balls": 2.688, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.7399, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.4722, "crosses_total": 3.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.8404, "touches": 77.5994, "possession_lost": 14.4782, "dispossessed": 0.8954, "duels_lost": 5.2817, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9285, "interceptions": 0.7985, "tackles_won": 0.5423, "tackles": 1.1248, "clearances": 0.7256, "total_contest": 1.1556, "won_contest": 0.4599, "challenges_lost": 1.5982, "fouls": 1.2725, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "blocks": 0.2322, "big_chances_created": 0.2371, "big_chances_missed": 0.1406, "xgot": 0.2212, "ball_carries": 21.5072, "total_progression": 85.2797, "progressive_carries": 1.9977, "shots_off_target": 0.9643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1787, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2457, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2457, "assist_rate": 0.1246, "provider_weight": 0.2256, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.1173, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "player_id": 964994, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 186, "market_value": 69000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1878, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2081, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0911, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1712, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0854, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.6253, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1937, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025286, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 51, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 143, "combined_rank_score": 130.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 117.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.42, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 143.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8499, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 138 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 139 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 }, { "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking": 141 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 }, { "player_name": "Esteban Kirkman", "ranking": 147 }, { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0182, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 164.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 0.55, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.5555555555555556, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0644, "tackles": 1.613, "tackles_won": 0.9339, "clearances": 2.5929, "aerial_won": 1.4786, "total_shots": 0.6401, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 51.5657, "accurate_pass": 44.8664, "duels_won": 5.1676, "total_long_balls": 2.994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2902, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3706, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9201, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.9463, "crosses_total": 0.3279, "crosses_accurate": 0.1845, "touches": 68.1416, "possession_lost": 9.1826, "dispossessed": 0.597, "duels_lost": 3.8017, "aerial_lost": 2.1647, "total_contest": 0.7028, "won_contest": 0.5422, "ball_recovery": 3.647, "challenges_lost": 0.2144, "fouls": 0.6765, "fouls_drawn": 0.807, "blocks": 0.5754, "goals": 0.1336, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "assists": 0.3099, "assist_rate": 0.3099, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "expected_assists": 0.1256, "shots_on_target": 0.2481, "big_chances_created": 0.1649, "xgot": 0.1392, "ball_carries": 20.2837, "total_progression": 75.7531, "progressive_carries": 1.6688, "key_pass": 0.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.392 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 51.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9743, "aerialWon": 1.693, "totalClearance_p90": 2.7503, "totalTackle": 1.1489, "defensive_actions": 2.0651 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0644352436065674, "model_output": 1.0644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1204 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 1.0644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050314 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.04058 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029846 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.027267 } ], "others_margin": -0.006454 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6129802465438843, "model_output": 1.613, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1972 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 1.613, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133309 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.056081 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.034766 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.029556 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.018511 } ], "others_margin": -0.022304 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9338814616203308, "model_output": 0.9339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1161 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0253 } ], "others": 0.0453, "total": 0.9339, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12879 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039944 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.035233 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032103 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.028834 } ], "others_margin": 0.049652 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.5928990840911865, "model_output": 2.5929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5558 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3772 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2178 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0678 } ], "others": -0.0829, "total": 2.5929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.177057 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12352 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.091916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076373 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02502 } ], "others_margin": -0.031501 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.47855806350708, "model_output": 1.4786, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2766 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1708 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1572 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1168 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0592 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 1.4786, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.182072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097838 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.089709 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.072271 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.038717 } ], "others_margin": -0.013961 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6401184797286987, "model_output": 0.6401, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0142, "total": 0.6401, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064993 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035767 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.014758 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014279 } ], "others_margin": 0.014254 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849928855895996, "model_output": 6.8499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0578, "total": 6.8499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039492 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021443 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.017433 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014834 } ], "others_margin": -0.057902 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0182, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9509, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6518, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.3339, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.8217, "blocks": 0.5859, "goals": 0.136, "goal_rate": 0.136, "assists": 0.3155, "assist_rate": 0.3155, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.1279, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 69000000, "quality_factor": 0.8692, "boost_factor": 1.0182, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.65, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "assists": 0.3181, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.1279, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9321, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8217, "after": 0.811 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3339, "after": 0.343 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9509, "after": 0.9453 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "assists": 0.3181, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.1279, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "assists": 0.3181, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.1279, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.1279, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.1417, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1878, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.2081, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.065, "after": 0.0955 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1279, "after": 0.1878 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1878, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.2081, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 143, "fifa_rank": 143.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1878, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.2081, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0911, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0911, "goal_rate": 0.141, "scorer_weight": 0.1194, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0389, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 1.6423, "tackles_won": 0.9453, "clearances": 2.6401, "aerial_won": 1.5055, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5042, "accurate_pass": 45.683, "duels_won": 5.2617, "total_long_balls": 3.0485, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3137, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3821, "crosses_total": 0.343, "crosses_accurate": 0.1879, "touches": 69.3818, "possession_lost": 9.3497, "dispossessed": 0.6079, "duels_lost": 3.8709, "aerial_lost": 2.2041, "total_contest": 0.7156, "won_contest": 0.5521, "ball_recovery": 3.7134, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.6933, "fouls_drawn": 0.811, "blocks": 0.5859, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1878, "shots_on_target": 0.256, "big_chances_created": 0.1679, "xgot": 0.2081, "ball_carries": 20.6529, "total_progression": 77.1318, "progressive_carries": 1.6992, "key_pass": 0.522, "shots_off_target": 0.3991, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0911, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1712, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1712, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "provider_weight": 0.2347, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.1221, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marc Guéhi": { "player_id": 877994, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 182, "market_value": 71000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 80, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 44, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 97, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 115, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1238, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0826, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1234, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 116, "accurate_pass": 108, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 123, "accurate_pass": 113, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 113, "accurate_pass": 111, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8937, "expected_assists": 0.3199, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1212, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 131, "accurate_pass": 124, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 81, "combined_rank_score": 86.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 33.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 140.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2056, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 76 }, { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "ranking": 82 }, { "player_name": "Valdívia", "ranking": 83 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 84 }, { "player_name": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 85 }, { "player_name": "Arturo Vidal", "ranking": 86 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0117, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8229, "tackles": 1.0677, "tackles_won": 0.6227, "clearances": 3.8296, "aerial_won": 1.9978, "total_shots": 0.5314, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 84.2653, "accurate_pass": 78.6708, "duels_won": 4.9264, "total_long_balls": 3.8963, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9966, "total_own_half_passes": 43.3223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.112, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.9431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.5589, "crosses_total": 0.3061, "crosses_accurate": 0.1585, "touches": 96.1871, "possession_lost": 7.1011, "dispossessed": 0.562, "duels_lost": 2.9412, "aerial_lost": 1.3307, "total_contest": 0.5707, "won_contest": 0.5593, "ball_recovery": 3.3653, "challenges_lost": 0.2947, "fouls": 0.8702, "fouls_drawn": 1.2803, "blocks": 0.5495, "goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.077, "assists": 0.1398, "assist_rate": 0.1398, "expected_goals": 0.089, "expected_assists": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.1245, "big_chances_created": 0.0692, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 29.8608, "total_progression": 113.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.4644, "key_pass": 0.6714, "shots_off_target": 0.4069 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.721, "aerialWon": 2.4136, "totalClearance_p90": 3.721, "totalTackle": 0.6732, "defensive_actions": 1.3411 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8228667974472046, "model_output": 0.8229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1048 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0195 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 0.8229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114998 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.038406 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.030698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.028657 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.022503 } ], "others_margin": -0.039249 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.0676982402801514, "model_output": 1.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1896 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1593 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1312 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.1136 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0677 } ], "others": -0.2604, "total": 1.0677, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128453 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.106773 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.09741 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.084887 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049725 } ], "others_margin": -0.218228 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6227261424064636, "model_output": 0.6227, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1128 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0783 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": -0.1016, "total": 0.6227, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.143215 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.114841 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113225 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.048367 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.039011 } ], "others_margin": -0.15106 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.829589366912842, "model_output": 3.8296, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4027 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3208 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2774 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1415 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1103 } ], "others": -0.0728, "total": 3.8296, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111165 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.080486 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.069213 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.03591 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.02787 } ], "others_margin": -0.018844 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.9978235960006714, "model_output": 1.9978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.4038 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.162 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0776 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0651 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 1.9978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.255839 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086664 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.040572 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.035594 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.032978 } ], "others_margin": -0.004261 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5314342975616455, "model_output": 0.5314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0253 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.5314, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037482 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032548 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031236 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.026264 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025347 } ], "others_margin": -0.043855 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2055840492248535, "model_output": 7.2056, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1423 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": 0.1176, "total": 7.2056, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.142258 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.047187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04001 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.037297 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030815 } ], "others_margin": 0.117635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8325, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.63, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.5377, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3097, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2953, "blocks": 0.5559, "goals": 0.0779, "goal_rate": 0.0779, "assists": 0.1414, "assist_rate": 0.1414, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.63, "after": 0.6426 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8325, "after": 0.8387 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.09, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.09, "after": 0.1322 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0587, "after": 0.0862 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 81, "fifa_rank": 140.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1238, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "scorer_weight": 0.1245, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8387, "tackles": 1.0802, "tackles_won": 0.6426, "clearances": 3.8744, "aerial_won": 2.0212, "total_shots": 0.542, "rating": 7.2056, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 85.2512, "accurate_pass": 79.5912, "duels_won": 4.984, "total_long_balls": 3.9419, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 43.8292, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.593, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.4221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.9983, "crosses_total": 0.3068, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 97.3125, "possession_lost": 7.1842, "dispossessed": 0.5686, "duels_lost": 2.9756, "aerial_lost": 1.3463, "total_contest": 0.5774, "won_contest": 0.5658, "ball_recovery": 3.4047, "challenges_lost": 0.2981, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 1.2972, "blocks": 0.5559, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0626, "ball_carries": 30.2102, "total_progression": 114.9507, "progressive_carries": 1.4815, "key_pass": 0.6793, "shots_off_target": 0.4117, "opponent_faced": "Alysson", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1238, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0826, "finishing_factor": 0.9414, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "provider_weight": 0.1077, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rúben Dias": { "player_id": 318941, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 188, "market_value": 55000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 78, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 48, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 93, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.08, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 134, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0954, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2175, "expected_assists": 0.0949, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 126, "accurate_pass": 121, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 60, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2034, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 44, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 123, "accurate_pass": 116, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "expected_assists": 0.5653, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 107, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 128, "accurate_pass": 112, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023984, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 81, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 61, "combined_rank_score": 74.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 58.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0513, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 }, { "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking": 59 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Paquetá", "ranking": 60 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0132, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8755, "tackles": 0.8988, "tackles_won": 0.5819, "clearances": 4.779, "aerial_won": 2.2224, "total_shots": 0.5719, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 82.9049, "accurate_pass": 76.8299, "duels_won": 3.2382, "total_long_balls": 6.4494, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5978, "total_own_half_passes": 47.4388, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45.4492, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3808, "crosses_total": 0.1924, "crosses_accurate": 0.0652, "touches": 91.3379, "possession_lost": 6.819, "dispossessed": 0.0241, "duels_lost": 3.7269, "aerial_lost": 1.9543, "total_contest": 0.3613, "won_contest": 0.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.8618, "challenges_lost": 0.3257, "fouls": 1.3875, "fouls_drawn": 0.1532, "blocks": 0.3506, "goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0674, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "shots_on_target": 0.419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0538, "ball_carries": 33.6917, "total_progression": 132.2862, "progressive_carries": 1.3791, "key_pass": 0.5204, "shots_off_target": 0.1529 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.6956, "aerialWon": 2.4448, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9219, "totalTackle": 0.4316, "defensive_actions": 1.1035 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8755024075508118, "model_output": 0.8755, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1133 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 0.8755, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.027926 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.025817 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.01831 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.017767 } ], "others_margin": -0.016389 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8987920880317688, "model_output": 0.8988, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1542 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1437 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1307 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0569 } ], "others": -0.216, "total": 0.8988, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.118193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110593 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.100055 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.058223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.049825 } ], "others_margin": -0.215299 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5818649530410767, "model_output": 0.5819, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0989 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0758 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0291 } ], "others": -0.1024, "total": 0.5819, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.124479 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.109435 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10733 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042821 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.0416 } ], "others_margin": -0.162111 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.778957843780518, "model_output": 4.779, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.425 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3143 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3277 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.204 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1661 } ], "others": 0.3248, "total": 4.779, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116979 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.078465 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.075754 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046485 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.038007 } ], "others_margin": 0.070379 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.222371816635132, "model_output": 2.2224, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.173 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0991 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0456 } ], "others": 0.315, "total": 2.2224, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.228765 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.09475 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.050495 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.030473 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.02364 } ], "others_margin": 0.152862 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5718708634376526, "model_output": 0.5719, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0059, "total": 0.5719, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049789 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.036517 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030918 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.01574 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010388 } ], "others_margin": 0.005835 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.051280975341797, "model_output": 7.0513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1547 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.041, "total": 7.0513, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.154734 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.043394 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.03252 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029093 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025238 } ], "others_margin": 0.040959 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8871, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5895, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5794, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1949, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.4058, "fouls_drawn": 0.1552, "blocks": 0.3552, "goals": 0.0159, "goal_rate": 0.0159, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.4245, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0545, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5784, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0545, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0114, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.984, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4058, "after": 1.3898 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0545, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0545, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0545, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.08, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0683, "after": 0.1003 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.1097 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.08, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 61, "fifa_rank": 58.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 87.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.08, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0954, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "scorer_weight": 0.0802, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8826, "tackles": 0.9107, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "clearances": 4.842, "aerial_won": 2.2517, "total_shots": 0.5802, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 83.9992, "accurate_pass": 77.8441, "duels_won": 3.2809, "total_long_balls": 6.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6453, "total_own_half_passes": 48.065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.0491, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.9344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.795, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0661, "touches": 92.5436, "possession_lost": 6.909, "dispossessed": 0.0244, "duels_lost": 3.7761, "aerial_lost": 1.9801, "total_contest": 0.3661, "won_contest": 0.2198, "ball_recovery": 2.8996, "challenges_lost": 0.33, "fouls": 1.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.159, "blocks": 0.3552, "goal_rate": 0.0157, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.08, "ball_carries": 34.1364, "total_progression": 134.0324, "progressive_carries": 1.3973, "key_pass": 0.5273, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0954, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0878, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "player_id": 1194333, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 45, "height": 186, "market_value": 47000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 73, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0418, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0622, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 76, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 92, "accurate_pass": 89, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.1982, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 74, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 102, "accurate_pass": 94, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0115, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025039, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1115, "expected_assists": 0.1076, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 705, "combined_rank_score": 340.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 389.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.018, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ji-ung Baek", "ranking": 700 }, { "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking": 701 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Villagra", "ranking": 702 }, { "player_name": "Bo-seob Kim", "ranking": 703 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Retegui", "ranking": 704 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bradley Barcola", "ranking": 706 }, { "player_name": "Luka Jovanovic", "ranking": 707 }, { "player_name": "Jung-won Choi", "ranking": 708 }, { "player_name": "Cristhofer Mesías", "ranking": 709 }, { "player_name": "Luis Javier Suárez", "ranking": 710 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0154, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 178.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0599, "tackles": 1.5165, "tackles_won": 0.8943, "clearances": 3.0092, "aerial_won": 1.2258, "total_shots": 0.4684, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 77.2442, "accurate_pass": 72.1102, "duels_won": 3.8238, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0039, "total_own_half_passes": 42.0139, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.9849, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1253, "crosses_total": 0.4538, "crosses_accurate": 0.0508, "touches": 90.6941, "possession_lost": 6.7073, "dispossessed": 0.0467, "duels_lost": 1.6541, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.5689, "won_contest": 0.4203, "ball_recovery": 4.5179, "challenges_lost": 0.2206, "fouls": 0.8181, "fouls_drawn": 0.2917, "blocks": 0.5692, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0287, "expected_assists": 0.043, "shots_on_target": 0.0508, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25.7303, "total_progression": 74.0272, "progressive_carries": 1.1563, "key_pass": 0.2473, "shots_off_target": 0.4176 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.0177, "aerialWon": 1.1098, "totalClearance_p90": 2.1123, "totalTackle": 1.4352, "defensive_actions": 2.913 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.059897780418396, "model_output": 1.0599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1111 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0788 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0199 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 1.0599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121497 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.078009 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.046682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.033783 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.018838 } ], "others_margin": 0.015052 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.5165406465530396, "model_output": 1.5165, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1741 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0543 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0481 } ], "others": -0.0321, "total": 1.5165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11856 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.035467 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.033434 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.031818 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.031585 } ], "others_margin": -0.020929 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8943104147911072, "model_output": 0.8943, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0276 } ], "others": -0.1147, "total": 0.8943, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116633 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.042708 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.042608 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033168 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.02773 } ], "others_margin": -0.120732 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.009158134460449, "model_output": 3.0092, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4767 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3924 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1752 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1429 } ], "others": -0.3075, "total": 3.0092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.149871 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124946 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.108073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056772 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044051 } ], "others_margin": -0.097288 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2257524728775024, "model_output": 1.2258, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2008 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.166 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0537 } ], "others": 0.0504, "total": 1.2258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.156584 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131137 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.113224 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.07233 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046768 } ], "others_margin": 0.041972 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4684082865715027, "model_output": 0.4684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.4684, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018838 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012306 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010792 } ], "others_margin": 0.006443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0180253982543945, "model_output": 7.018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0748 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0366, "total": 7.018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07475 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.058131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.037368 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.036926 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.016172 } ], "others_margin": 0.036641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0154, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0762, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9081, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4756, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8307, "fouls_drawn": 0.2962, "blocks": 0.578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0516, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0154, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4687, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9829, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9081, "after": 0.9305 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8307, "after": 0.8187 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4608, "after": 0.4683 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4756, "after": 0.4687 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0427 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0437, "after": 0.0642 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 705, "fifa_rank": 389.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0418, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0342, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0749, "tackles": 1.5399, "tackles_won": 0.9305, "clearances": 3.0555, "aerial_won": 1.2446, "total_shots": 0.4749, "rating": 7.018, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 78.4338, "accurate_pass": 73.2207, "duels_won": 3.8827, "total_long_balls": 4.1379, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0348, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.6007, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.62, "crosses_total": 0.4683, "crosses_accurate": 0.0516, "touches": 92.0908, "possession_lost": 6.8106, "dispossessed": 0.0474, "duels_lost": 1.6796, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.5777, "won_contest": 0.4268, "ball_recovery": 4.5875, "challenges_lost": 0.224, "fouls": 0.8187, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.0509, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.1265, "total_progression": 75.1672, "progressive_carries": 1.1741, "key_pass": 0.2511, "shots_off_target": 0.424, "opponent_faced": "Emiliano Buendía", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0418, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0622, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0622, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0514, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "player_id": 824509, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2045 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.678 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2751 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.7595 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.954 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6972 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2179 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3224 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 141, "combined_rank_score": 128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 27.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0176, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Fraser", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Fabrício Bruno", "ranking": 137 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 138 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 139 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 }, { "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking": 143 }, { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0099, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8664, "goals_prevented": 0.0292, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.3576, "accurate_pass": 19.8236, "total_long_balls": 12.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6307, "touches": 36.9096, "clearances": 0.8431, "ball_recovery": 6.7811, "high_claims": 1.3474, "punches": 0.6819, "aerial_won": 0.3818, "sweeper_actions": 0.4453, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2743, "saves_inside_box": 1.8262, "possession_lost": 7.8713, "duels_won": 0.674, "duels_lost": 0.1199, "total_contest": 0.1307, "won_contest": 0.1307, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1614, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9793, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2559 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:03:38.130505+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.8713, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8885, "saves": 2.7879, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2829, "save_contribution": 3.0571, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.2559 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8664050102233887, "model_output": 2.8664, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9357, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0524, "total": 2.8664, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.076962, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.006131 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.003774 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.003477 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.003111 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.00305 } ], "others_margin": -0.01813 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.029169786721467972, "model_output": 0.0292, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.0292, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024824 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.01303 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.007883 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.007696 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.005996 } ], "others_margin": -0.002702 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.017602443695068, "model_output": 7.0176, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 7.0176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026387 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.012871 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.01209 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.011765 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.011443 } ], "others_margin": -0.022061 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0099, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8948, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.163, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0099, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8948, "after": 2.8864 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 9.8, "expected_saves": 2.4, "high_pressure_saves": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.031 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 9.8, "expected_saves": 2.4, "high_pressure_saves": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.8, "after": 8.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.4, "after": 2.08 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.82, "after": 0.71 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 141, "fifa_rank": 27.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8864, "goals_prevented": 0.0295, "rating": 7.0176, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6284, "accurate_pass": 20.0199, "total_long_balls": 12.1452, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6765, "touches": 37.275, "clearances": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 6.8482, "high_claims": 1.3607, "punches": 0.6887, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "sweeper_actions": 0.4497, "sweeper_accurate": 0.277, "saves_inside_box": 1.8443, "possession_lost": 7.9492, "duels_won": 0.6807, "duels_lost": 0.1211, "total_contest": 0.132, "won_contest": 0.132, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1615, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4267, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.031, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "player_id": 914309, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3044, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2279, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2624, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.8827, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1041, "expected_assists": 0.1435, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2433, "expected_assists": 0.3204, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.053, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3645, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 430, "combined_rank_score": 262.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 387.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9569, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 }, { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lisandro Martínez", "ranking": 431 }, { "player_name": "Park Chang-Hwan", "ranking": 432 }, { "player_name": "Venício Tomás", "ranking": 433 }, { "player_name": "Edoardo Colombo", "ranking": 434 }, { "player_name": "Teddy Sharman-Lowe", "ranking": 435 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0121, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 75.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Everton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.181, "goals": 0.2096, "goal_rate": 0.2096, "shots_on_target": 0.7313, "total_shots": 1.7404, "expected_assists": 0.1294, "key_pass": 1.2987, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.0544, "accurate_pass": 27.9593, "duels_won": 5.5336, "total_long_balls": 0.3279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1112, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3671, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0004, "crosses_total": 2.3429, "crosses_accurate": 0.2834, "touches": 52.6354, "possession_lost": 12.6051, "dispossessed": 1.9742, "duels_lost": 6.8749, "aerial_lost": 1.2488, "total_contest": 3.9754, "won_contest": 1.948, "ball_recovery": 3.8659, "challenges_lost": 0.8179, "fouls": 0.8066, "fouls_drawn": 1.3507, "assists": 0.2344, "assist_rate": 0.2344, "interceptions": 0.4593, "tackles_won": 1.1456, "tackles": 1.823, "clearances": 0.5624, "blocks": 0.0158, "big_chances_created": 0.3957, "big_chances_missed": 0.2417, "xgot": 0.1356, "offsides": 0.1772, "ball_carries": 18.5301, "total_progression": 96.1098, "progressive_carries": 4.638, "shots_off_target": 1.0091 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2299, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 21.266, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 18.0747, "accuratePass": 26.5384, "totalShots": 1.6535 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1810237020254135, "model_output": 0.181, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0435, "total": 0.181, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.167753 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.150557 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.085179 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.079691 } ], "others_margin": -0.21531 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20962408185005188, "model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0653 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.279841 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.121602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.109997 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.080234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.064599 } ], "others_margin": -0.08786 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.731286883354187, "model_output": 0.7313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1968 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0372 } ], "others": 0.1182, "total": 0.7313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.312688 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.10283 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.084678 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067827 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.058827 } ], "others_margin": 0.176134 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7404227256774902, "model_output": 1.7404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5075 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1458 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1312 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0985 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0587 } ], "others": -0.173, "total": 1.7404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.50746 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.145805 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.131216 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.098488 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.058707 } ], "others_margin": -0.172977 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.12942096590995789, "model_output": 0.1294, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": 0.0142, "total": 0.1294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.201885 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.17573 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.075013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.071932 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.056071 } ], "others_margin": 0.116648 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2986867427825928, "model_output": 1.2987, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1928 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1125 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0914 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0505 } ], "others": 0.1172, "total": 1.2987, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.249456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.12122 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088685 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048766 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.043647 } ], "others_margin": 0.094567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956903457641602, "model_output": 6.9569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0283 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 6.9569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05825 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056157 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052663 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039731 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.028262 } ], "others_margin": -0.046441 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1832, "goals": 0.2122, "goal_rate": 0.2122, "shots_on_target": 0.7401, "total_shots": 1.7615, "expected_assists": 0.131, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.3712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8164, "fouls_drawn": 1.367, "assists": 0.2372, "assist_rate": 0.2372, "interceptions": 0.4649, "tackles_won": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2446, "xgot": 0.1372, "offsides": 0.1793, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.0213 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0121, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1832, "goals": 0.2101, "goal_rate": 0.2101, "shots_on_target": 0.7465, "total_shots": 1.7624, "expected_assists": 0.131, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assists": 0.2394, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2446, "xgot": 0.1372, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.0213 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9269, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.3712, "after": 2.357 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.367, "after": 1.3581 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1595, "after": 1.1526 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7401, "after": 0.7465 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1832, "goals": 0.2101, "goal_rate": 0.2101, "shots_on_target": 0.7465, "total_shots": 1.7678, "expected_assists": 0.131, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assists": 0.2394, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2446, "xgot": 0.1372, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.0213 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2073, "goals": 0.2377, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.131, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assists": 0.2394, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.1552, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "skill_edge": 0.1295, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.8589, "defender_skill": 0.5712, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "market_value": 19800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6892 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 } ], "xg_override": 0.2073 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7678, "after": 2.0003 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0213, "after": 1.1556 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7465, "after": 0.8447 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2446, "after": 0.2768 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2101, "after": 0.2377 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1832, "after": 0.2073 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1372, "after": 0.1552 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2073, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.131, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.1552, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3044, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.2279, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2073, "after": 0.3044 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.131, "after": 0.1924 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3044, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.2279, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 430, "fifa_rank": 387.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3044, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.2279, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2624, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2624, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "scorer_weight": 0.3404, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.111, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3044, "goal_rate": 0.2377, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8447, "total_shots": 2.0003, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "key_pass": 1.3144, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 83.42, "total_pass": 32.4423, "accurate_pass": 28.2976, "duels_won": 5.6006, "total_long_balls": 0.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2303, "crosses_total": 2.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2868, "touches": 53.2723, "possession_lost": 12.7576, "dispossessed": 1.9981, "duels_lost": 6.9581, "aerial_lost": 1.2639, "total_contest": 4.0235, "won_contest": 1.9716, "ball_recovery": 3.9127, "challenges_lost": 0.8278, "fouls": 0.8175, "fouls_drawn": 1.3581, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 1.1526, "tackles": 1.8451, "clearances": 0.5692, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4005, "big_chances_missed": 0.2768, "xgot": 0.2279, "offsides": 0.1775, "ball_carries": 18.7543, "total_progression": 97.2727, "progressive_carries": 4.6941, "shots_off_target": 1.1556, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "opponent_faced": "Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2624, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "finishing_factor": 1.1182, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "assist_rate": 0.2394, "provider_weight": 0.2405, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.1251, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Gerónimo Rulli": { "player_id": 128383, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 189, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0242, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0151, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1208, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.115, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 958, "combined_rank_score": 443.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 706.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hyun-Jun Suk", "ranking": 953 }, { "player_name": "Theo Hernández", "ranking": 954 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Diaby", "ranking": 955 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking": 956 }, { "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking": 957 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 }, { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 961 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 }, { "player_name": "Dani Ceballos", "ranking": 963 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.529104686408814, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.11495930392767335, "market_value_adjustment": 0.472, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€5,800,000) scaled to 4.5 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.47)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0, "goals_prevented": 0.48, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 9.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.6, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.7, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.151, "goals_prevented": 0.0242, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 1.3587, "accurate_pass": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.4529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2013, "touches": 1.6103, "clearances": 0.0503, "ball_recovery": 0.0604, "high_claims": 0.0302, "punches": 0.0151, "aerial_won": 0.0352, "sweeper_actions": 0.0604, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0403, "saves_inside_box": 0.0604, "possession_lost": 0.1208, "duels_won": 0.0201, "duels_lost": 0.0101, "total_contest": 0.0201, "won_contest": 0.0101, "fouls": 0.0101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.115, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.53, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0503, "appearance_probability": 0.115 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.151, "goals_prevented": 0.0242, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 1.3587, "accurate_pass": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.4529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2013, "touches": 1.6103, "clearances": 0.0503, "ball_recovery": 0.0604, "high_claims": 0.0302, "punches": 0.0151, "aerial_won": 0.0352, "sweeper_actions": 0.0604, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0403, "saves_inside_box": 0.0604, "possession_lost": 0.1208, "duels_won": 0.0201, "duels_lost": 0.0101, "total_contest": 0.0201, "won_contest": 0.0101, "fouls": 0.0101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.115, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.151, "goals_prevented": 0.0242, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 1.3587, "accurate_pass": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.4529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2013, "touches": 1.6103, "clearances": 0.0503, "ball_recovery": 0.0604, "high_claims": 0.0302, "punches": 0.0151, "aerial_won": 0.0352, "sweeper_actions": 0.0604, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0403, "saves_inside_box": 0.0604, "possession_lost": 0.1208, "duels_won": 0.0201, "duels_lost": 0.0101, "total_contest": 0.0201, "won_contest": 0.0101, "fouls": 0.0101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.115, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.115, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.151, "goals_prevented": 0.0242, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 1.3587, "accurate_pass": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.4529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2013, "touches": 1.6103, "clearances": 0.0503, "ball_recovery": 0.0604, "high_claims": 0.0302, "punches": 0.0151, "aerial_won": 0.0352, "sweeper_actions": 0.0604, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0403, "saves_inside_box": 0.0604, "possession_lost": 0.1208, "duels_won": 0.0201, "duels_lost": 0.0101, "total_contest": 0.0201, "won_contest": 0.0101, "fouls": 0.0101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.115, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 958, "fifa_rank": 706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "player_id": 1142703, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 193, "market_value": 76000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0594, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1849, "expected_assists": 0.0794, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.783, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "expected_assists": 0.4109, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5885, "expected_assists": 0.037, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2626, "expected_assists": 0.2043, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.714, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 793, "combined_rank_score": 381.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 483.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8706, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 279.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7136, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico O'Reilly", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 }, { "player_name": "Julian Andres Bonilla Tovar", "ranking": 790 }, { "player_name": "Murillo", "ranking": 791 }, { "player_name": "Djalma Celestino Evaristo", "ranking": 792 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christoph Baumgartner", "ranking": 794 }, { "player_name": "Matías Viña", "ranking": 795 }, { "player_name": "Valeri Gromyko", "ranking": 796 }, { "player_name": "Islomzhon Kobilov", "ranking": 797 }, { "player_name": "Khurshid Giyosov", "ranking": 798 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.317350167092924, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.253, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0124, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (40 historical appearances) to 15.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3191, "tackles": 0.7323, "tackles_won": 0.4805, "clearances": 0.6479, "aerial_won": 0.26, "total_shots": 0.3953, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 19.96, "total_pass": 12.4593, "accurate_pass": 10.8672, "duels_won": 1.43, "total_long_balls": 0.1595, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.976, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.448, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6328, "possession_lost": 3.2043, "dispossessed": 0.6902, "duels_lost": 2.6039, "aerial_lost": 0.4828, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.098, "ball_recovery": 1.3474, "challenges_lost": 0.4917, "fouls": 0.4955, "fouls_drawn": 0.1356, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1891, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "shots_on_target": 0.2208, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0765, "ball_carries": 5.1629, "total_progression": 48.7639, "progressive_carries": 1.1396, "key_pass": 0.2508, "shots_off_target": 0.1745 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.1547, "aerialWon": 0.9004, "totalClearance_p90": 1.3094, "totalTackle": 0.8395, "defensive_actions": 1.1247 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3191258907318115, "model_output": 0.3191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4666 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0452, "total": 0.3191, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.781558 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.088785 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.068365 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.043405 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.036406 } ], "others_margin": -0.132826 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7323257923126221, "model_output": 0.7323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7361 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0987, "total": 0.7323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.759717 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.060444 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.039717 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.03407 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033688 } ], "others_margin": 0.144996 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4805019199848175, "model_output": 0.4805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4245 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0489, "total": 0.4805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.697827 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.064913 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.062148 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.05983 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041206 } ], "others_margin": 0.107281 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.6478734612464905, "model_output": 0.6479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2858 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0998 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0644 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.054 } ], "others": -0.1852, "total": 0.6479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.940619 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.240448 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.099738 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.070119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062756 } ], "others_margin": -0.251503 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2599785327911377, "model_output": 0.26, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8164 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1327 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.074 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0522, "total": 0.26, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.890114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.265783 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.186098 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.090551 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.057934 } ], "others_margin": -0.182492 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.39528408646583557, "model_output": 0.3953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1656 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 } ], "others": -0.0503, "total": 0.3953, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.226309 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.165602 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.027745 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024835 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021067 } ], "others_margin": -0.050462 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.713646411895752, "model_output": 6.7136, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0533, "total": 6.7136, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023299 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013918 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012076 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01198 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008834 } ], "others_margin": -0.053227 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.878)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3231, "tackles": 0.7414, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "clearances": 0.6559, "aerial_won": 0.2632, "total_shots": 0.4002, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 19.96, "total_pass": 12.6138, "accurate_pass": 11.002, "duels_won": 1.4477, "total_long_balls": 0.1615, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4616, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5404, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8514, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.6362, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.5484, "won_contest": 0.0992, "ball_recovery": 1.3641, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1914, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.2235, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 5.2269, "total_progression": 49.3686, "progressive_carries": 1.1537, "key_pass": 0.2539, "shots_off_target": 0.1767 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 76000000, "quality_factor": 0.8781, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3205, "tackles": 0.7414, "tackles_won": 0.4836, "clearances": 0.6559, "aerial_won": 0.2632, "total_shots": 0.3991, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 19.96, "total_pass": 12.6138, "accurate_pass": 11.002, "duels_won": 1.4477, "total_long_balls": 0.1615, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4616, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5404, "crosses_total": 0.0043, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8514, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.6362, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.5484, "won_contest": 0.0992, "ball_recovery": 1.3641, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.4996, "fouls_drawn": 0.1362, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1914, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.2217, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 5.2269, "total_progression": 49.3686, "progressive_carries": 1.1537, "key_pass": 0.2539, "shots_off_target": 0.1767 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2218, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.0 to 15.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.246, "tackles": 0.569, "tackles_won": 0.3711, "clearances": 0.5033, "aerial_won": 0.202, "total_shots": 0.3063, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6799, "accurate_pass": 8.443, "duels_won": 1.111, "total_long_balls": 0.1239, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6564, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7865, "crosses_total": 0.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6992, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.4208, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 1.0468, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.3834, "fouls_drawn": 0.1045, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0.1701, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "ball_carries": 4.0111, "total_progression": 37.8856, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "key_pass": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.1356, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.32, "projection_minutes": 19.96, "minutes_scale": 0.7674, "appearance_probability": 0.253 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.246, "tackles": 0.569, "tackles_won": 0.3711, "clearances": 0.5033, "aerial_won": 0.202, "total_shots": 0.3063, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6799, "accurate_pass": 8.443, "duels_won": 1.111, "total_long_balls": 0.1239, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6564, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7865, "crosses_total": 0.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6992, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.4208, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 1.0468, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.3834, "fouls_drawn": 0.1045, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0.1701, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "ball_carries": 4.0111, "total_progression": 37.8856, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "key_pass": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.1356, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.246, "tackles": 0.569, "tackles_won": 0.3711, "clearances": 0.5033, "aerial_won": 0.202, "total_shots": 0.3063, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6799, "accurate_pass": 8.443, "duels_won": 1.111, "total_long_balls": 0.1239, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6564, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7865, "crosses_total": 0.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6992, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.4208, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 1.0468, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.3834, "fouls_drawn": 0.1045, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0.1701, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "ball_carries": 4.0111, "total_progression": 37.8856, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "key_pass": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.1356, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.253, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.246, "tackles": 0.569, "tackles_won": 0.3711, "clearances": 0.5033, "aerial_won": 0.202, "total_shots": 0.3063, "rating": 6.7136, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6799, "accurate_pass": 8.443, "duels_won": 1.111, "total_long_balls": 0.1239, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6564, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7865, "crosses_total": 0.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6992, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_lost": 0.4888, "total_contest": 0.4208, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 1.0468, "challenges_lost": 0.4978, "fouls": 0.3834, "fouls_drawn": 0.1045, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0.1701, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "ball_carries": 4.0111, "total_progression": 37.8856, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "key_pass": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.1356, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 793, "fifa_rank": 279.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Matheus Nunes": { "player_id": 945122, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 183, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 80, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 91, "accurate_pass": 84, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 661, "combined_rank_score": 335.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 394.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9471, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8499, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Nunes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Tigrão", "ranking": 656 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Montiel", "ranking": 657 }, { "player_name": "Orkun Kökçü", "ranking": 658 }, { "player_name": "Keon-woo Bak", "ranking": 659 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Jurman", "ranking": 660 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Plaza", "ranking": 662 }, { "player_name": "Yerko González", "ranking": 663 }, { "player_name": "Kim Tae-han", "ranking": 664 }, { "player_name": "Kwang-yeon Lee", "ranking": 665 }, { "player_name": "Shahzodbek Rahmatullayev", "ranking": 666 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.633, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0106, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (39 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4093, "tackles": 0.615, "tackles_won": 0.4075, "clearances": 0.9919, "aerial_won": 0.5171, "total_shots": 0.1968, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.069, "accurate_pass": 14.3003, "duels_won": 1.9417, "total_long_balls": 2.4295, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1079, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0739, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4131, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8872, "crosses_total": 0.7775, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.447, "possession_lost": 5.0991, "dispossessed": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 1.2225, "aerial_lost": 0.3304, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3304, "challenges_lost": 0.6113, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.0, "total_progression": 64.3268, "progressive_carries": 2.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1968 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.6971, "aerialWon": 1.5451, "totalClearance_p90": 2.8743, "totalTackle": 1.5687, "defensive_actions": 2.1437 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4093440771102905, "model_output": 0.4093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.449 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.4093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.73798 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.119304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.076753 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.024714 } ], "others_margin": 0.016729 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6150302886962891, "model_output": 0.615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7905 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.847662 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.050564 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033486 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.032509 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.024869 } ], "others_margin": -0.037177 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.40749427676200867, "model_output": 0.4075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4857 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.4075, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.855226 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.049442 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.032857 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.026323 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.024668 } ], "others_margin": 0.045255 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9918666481971741, "model_output": 0.9919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9602 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.151 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0494 } ], "others": -0.1315, "total": 0.9919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849341 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.108824 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.056183 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.043 } ], "others_margin": -0.124518 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5170992016792297, "model_output": 0.5171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7258 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0398 } ], "others": -0.0921, "total": 0.5171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.742344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.11307 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.065707 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.063287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.063275 } ], "others_margin": -0.163793 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19676198065280914, "model_output": 0.1968, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2052 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.092 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.1968, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092046 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.020719 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.015941 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014271 } ], "others_margin": -0.00328 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849871635437012, "model_output": 6.8499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.8499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.118638 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070728 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025761 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01331 } ], "others_margin": -0.023475 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4137, "tackles": 0.6215, "tackles_won": 0.4118, "clearances": 1.0024, "aerial_won": 0.5226, "total_shots": 0.1989, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.2499, "accurate_pass": 14.4519, "duels_won": 1.9623, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1196, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4917, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9602, "crosses_total": 0.7857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7273, "possession_lost": 5.1532, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.2355, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3551, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0106, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1378, "total_progression": 65.0087, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1989 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4129, "tackles": 0.6215, "tackles_won": 0.411, "clearances": 1.0024, "aerial_won": 0.5226, "total_shots": 0.1985, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.2499, "accurate_pass": 14.4519, "duels_won": 1.9623, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1196, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4917, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9602, "crosses_total": 0.7872, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7273, "possession_lost": 5.1532, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.2355, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3551, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0101, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1378, "total_progression": 65.0087, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1989 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3096, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.48, "projection_minutes": 27.86, "minutes_scale": 0.9146, "appearance_probability": 0.633 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 661, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0003, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0062, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rayan Cherki": { "player_id": 979128, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 176, "market_value": 120000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "assist_rate": 0.2833, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 5.8058, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.537, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5757, "expected_assists": 0.16, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "expected_assists": 0.129, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.21, "expected_assists": 0.302, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3453, "expected_assists": 0.5505, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4955, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4462, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 49, "combined_rank_score": 60.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 23.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2248, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Euller", "ranking": 44 }, { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.537, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0134, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 28.0, "goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "assists_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (39 historical appearances) to 26.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 28.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.573, "expected_assists": 0.1737, "assists": 0.2674, "assist_rate": 0.2674, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.5175, "total_shots": 1.2643, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 25.07, "total_pass": 16.8622, "accurate_pass": 14.809, "duels_won": 1.7375, "total_long_balls": 0.811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4274, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1981, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6109, "crosses_total": 1.7613, "crosses_accurate": 0.4684, "touches": 24.0399, "possession_lost": 5.5008, "dispossessed": 0.283, "duels_lost": 1.7988, "aerial_won": 0.0527, "aerial_lost": 0.2618, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2979, "clearances": 0.0599, "total_contest": 1.7378, "won_contest": 0.8713, "challenges_lost": 0.1222, "fouls": 0.2653, "fouls_drawn": 0.5155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3613, "big_chances_missed": 0.0423, "xgot": 0.037, "ball_carries": 9.2533, "total_progression": 44.7361, "progressive_carries": 1.4333, "shots_off_target": 0.7468 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.9413, "totalShots": 2.3972, "expectedGoals": 0.2086, "expectedAssists": 0.2345, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6615 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5730031728744507, "model_output": 1.573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3577 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1443 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0589 } ], "others": 0.6391, "total": 1.573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510605 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.238121 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.177134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.073364 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.065102 } ], "others_margin": 0.521378 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1737310290336609, "model_output": 0.1737, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0822, "total": 0.1737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.42624 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.161356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.155229 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.095281 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.077561 } ], "others_margin": 0.641285 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.26735958456993103, "model_output": 0.2674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0975, "total": 0.2674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.208162 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.14185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.115344 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.105183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.094138 } ], "others_margin": 0.453426 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0960673987865448, "model_output": 0.0961, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.0961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.577433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.222823 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180383 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083143 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.079337 } ], "others_margin": 0.03396 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1337057203054428, "model_output": 0.1337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.1337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.3095 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.148852 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.138048 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.087882 } ], "others_margin": 0.161177 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5175277590751648, "model_output": 0.5175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0734 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.1623, "total": 0.5175, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.513709 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.319224 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.151585 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.067453 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061182 } ], "others_margin": 0.376346 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2643221616744995, "model_output": 1.2643, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.737 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1323 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0524 } ], "others": 0.1445, "total": 1.2643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.737014 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.611449 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132268 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.063808 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.052364 } ], "others_margin": 0.144552 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2247796058654785, "model_output": 7.2248, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1506 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0967 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.088 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": 0.1305, "total": 7.2248, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.150602 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096692 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087964 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.04391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035019 } ], "others_margin": 0.13047 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.898)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5941, "expected_assists": 0.1761, "assists": 0.2709, "assist_rate": 0.2709, "expected_goals": 0.0974, "goals": 0.1355, "goal_rate": 0.1355, "shots_on_target": 0.5245, "total_shots": 1.2813, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 25.07, "total_pass": 17.0882, "accurate_pass": 15.0074, "duels_won": 1.7608, "total_long_balls": 0.8219, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4331, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.241, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7665, "crosses_total": 1.7849, "crosses_accurate": 0.4747, "touches": 24.362, "possession_lost": 5.5745, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8229, "aerial_won": 0.0534, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0557, "tackles_won": 0.2485, "tackles": 0.3019, "clearances": 0.0607, "total_contest": 1.7611, "won_contest": 0.883, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2689, "fouls_drawn": 0.5224, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3661, "big_chances_missed": 0.0429, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 9.3773, "total_progression": 45.3356, "progressive_carries": 1.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.7568 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 120000000, "quality_factor": 0.8975, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0059)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5941, "expected_assists": 0.1761, "assists": 0.272, "assist_rate": 0.272, "expected_goals": 0.0974, "goals": 0.1374, "goal_rate": 0.1374, "shots_on_target": 0.5255, "total_shots": 1.2778, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 25.07, "total_pass": 17.0882, "accurate_pass": 15.0074, "duels_won": 1.7608, "total_long_balls": 0.8219, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4331, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.241, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7665, "crosses_total": 1.7826, "crosses_accurate": 0.4747, "touches": 24.362, "possession_lost": 5.5745, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8229, "aerial_won": 0.0534, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.247, "tackles": 0.3019, "clearances": 0.0607, "total_contest": 1.7611, "won_contest": 0.883, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2728, "fouls_drawn": 0.5193, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3661, "big_chances_missed": 0.0429, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 9.3773, "total_progression": 45.3356, "progressive_carries": 1.4525, "shots_off_target": 0.7568 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0059, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2786, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6602, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "assists": 0.2833, "assist_rate": 0.2833, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.5473, "total_shots": 1.3355, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 26.11, "total_pass": 17.7971, "accurate_pass": 15.63, "duels_won": 1.8338, "total_long_balls": 0.856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4511, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3754, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2546, "crosses_total": 1.8565, "crosses_accurate": 0.4944, "touches": 25.3726, "possession_lost": 5.8058, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8985, "aerial_won": 0.0556, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0577, "tackles_won": 0.2572, "tackles": 0.3144, "clearances": 0.0632, "total_contest": 1.8342, "won_contest": 0.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2841, "fouls_drawn": 0.5408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0447, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 9.7663, "total_progression": 47.2163, "progressive_carries": 1.5128, "shots_off_target": 0.7882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.537, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.11, "projection_minutes": 25.07, "minutes_scale": 1.0415, "appearance_probability": 0.537 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6602, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "assists": 0.2833, "assist_rate": 0.2833, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.5473, "total_shots": 1.3355, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 26.11, "total_pass": 17.7971, "accurate_pass": 15.63, "duels_won": 1.8338, "total_long_balls": 0.856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4511, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3754, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2546, "crosses_total": 1.8565, "crosses_accurate": 0.4944, "touches": 25.3726, "possession_lost": 5.8058, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8985, "aerial_won": 0.0556, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0577, "tackles_won": 0.2572, "tackles": 0.3144, "clearances": 0.0632, "total_contest": 1.8342, "won_contest": 0.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2841, "fouls_drawn": 0.5408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0447, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 9.7663, "total_progression": 47.2163, "progressive_carries": 1.5128, "shots_off_target": 0.7882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.537, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6602, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "assist_rate": 0.2833, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5473, "total_shots": 1.3355, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 26.11, "total_pass": 17.7971, "accurate_pass": 15.63, "duels_won": 1.8338, "total_long_balls": 0.856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4511, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3754, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2546, "crosses_total": 1.8565, "crosses_accurate": 0.4944, "touches": 25.3726, "possession_lost": 5.8058, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8985, "aerial_won": 0.0556, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0577, "tackles_won": 0.2572, "tackles": 0.3144, "clearances": 0.0632, "total_contest": 1.8342, "won_contest": 0.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2841, "fouls_drawn": 0.5408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0447, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 9.7663, "total_progression": 47.2163, "progressive_carries": 1.5128, "shots_off_target": 0.7882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.537, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.537, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6602, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "assist_rate": 0.2833, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5473, "total_shots": 1.3355, "rating": 7.2248, "minutes": 26.11, "total_pass": 17.7971, "accurate_pass": 15.63, "duels_won": 1.8338, "total_long_balls": 0.856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4511, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3754, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2546, "crosses_total": 1.8565, "crosses_accurate": 0.4944, "touches": 25.3726, "possession_lost": 5.8058, "dispossessed": 0.2868, "duels_lost": 1.8985, "aerial_won": 0.0556, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "interceptions": 0.0577, "tackles_won": 0.2572, "tackles": 0.3144, "clearances": 0.0632, "total_contest": 1.8342, "won_contest": 0.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1238, "fouls": 0.2841, "fouls_drawn": 0.5408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0447, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 9.7663, "total_progression": 47.2163, "progressive_carries": 1.5128, "shots_off_target": 0.7882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.537, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 49, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Elliot Anderson": { "player_id": 994546, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 179, "market_value": 109000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 86, "possession_lost": 12.1353, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0453, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1006, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 73, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 158, "accurate_pass": 146, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 100, "accurate_pass": 92, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2536, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.393, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.6846, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.025, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 233, "combined_rank_score": 174.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 141.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3368, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 207.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1346, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Elliot Anderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ikram Alibaev", "ranking": 228 }, { "player_name": "Roger Brugué", "ranking": 229 }, { "player_name": "Luis Sinisterra", "ranking": 230 }, { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "William Saliba", "ranking": 232 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 234 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 235 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Isak", "ranking": 236 }, { "player_name": "Aleix García", "ranking": 237 }, { "player_name": "Gerson", "ranking": 238 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 45, "data_confidence": 0.766, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.787059415337968, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.344, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0117, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (45 historical appearances) to 23.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6148, "expected_assists": 0.0657, "assists": 0.063, "assist_rate": 0.063, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.5082, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 64.7628, "accurate_pass": 57.3082, "duels_won": 6.9911, "total_long_balls": 4.6073, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3658, "total_own_half_passes": 30.6255, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.7181, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.1373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.59, "crosses_total": 2.1653, "crosses_accurate": 0.6395, "touches": 83.2779, "possession_lost": 11.7745, "dispossessed": 1.0348, "duels_lost": 4.6482, "aerial_won": 1.0065, "aerial_lost": 0.9808, "interceptions": 1.0774, "tackles_won": 1.0907, "tackles": 1.9506, "clearances": 1.5944, "total_contest": 1.6514, "won_contest": 1.0052, "challenges_lost": 0.9476, "fouls": 1.0551, "fouls_drawn": 3.0406, "blocks": 0.1694, "big_chances_created": 0.3111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.044, "ball_carries": 25.3288, "total_progression": 72.2918, "progressive_carries": 0.8101, "shots_off_target": 0.3712 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:23.571433+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 903, "rows": 24475 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.4383, "totalShots": 0.9688, "expectedGoals": 0.0388, "expectedAssists": 0.1184, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1541 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6148309707641602, "model_output": 0.6148, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0524 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0316 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4026 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.02 } ], "others": 0.0433, "total": 0.6148, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.111507, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.105813 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.045923 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037419 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035555 } ], "others_margin": 0.073314 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06568804383277893, "model_output": 0.0657, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0472 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0033 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0112, "total": 0.0657, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.454719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570747 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.143122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.139978 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.064684 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.046957 } ], "others_margin": 0.187842 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06300799548625946, "model_output": 0.063, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0874, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0031, "total": 0.063, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.437263, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.321429 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.11079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089795 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.083159 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.061009 } ], "others_margin": 0.050614 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0346706360578537, "model_output": 0.0347, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0273 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.094, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.158894 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.121503 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.121173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036564 } ], "others_margin": -0.096369 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04917715862393379, "model_output": 0.0492, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.0492, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.367063 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.170564 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137815 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.107798 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078759 } ], "others_margin": 0.159115 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1369723379611969, "model_output": 0.137, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1326 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 0.137, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522291 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.103575 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091152 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.082142 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.08042 } ], "others_margin": 0.012376 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5081682205200195, "model_output": 0.5082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": -0.1174, "total": 0.5082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.345436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.037807 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037008 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.019294 } ], "others_margin": -0.117353 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.134562015533447, "model_output": 7.1346, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1108 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0848 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": 0.055, "total": 7.1346, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.181981 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110802 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084821 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039538 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027978 } ], "others_margin": 0.054994 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.896)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.622, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "goals": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.1386, "total_shots": 0.5141, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 65.5205, "accurate_pass": 57.9787, "duels_won": 7.0729, "total_long_balls": 4.6612, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3935, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0541, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9245, "crosses_total": 2.1906, "crosses_accurate": 0.647, "touches": 84.2523, "possession_lost": 11.9123, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7026, "aerial_won": 1.0183, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles_won": 1.1035, "tackles": 1.9734, "clearances": 1.6131, "total_contest": 1.6707, "won_contest": 1.017, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0674, "fouls_drawn": 3.0762, "blocks": 0.1714, "big_chances_created": 0.3147, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 25.6251, "total_progression": 73.1376, "progressive_carries": 0.8196, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 109000000, "quality_factor": 0.8957, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0069)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.622, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0633, "assist_rate": 0.0633, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1388, "total_shots": 0.5128, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 65.5205, "accurate_pass": 57.9787, "duels_won": 7.0729, "total_long_balls": 4.6612, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3935, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0541, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.5367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9245, "crosses_total": 2.1799, "crosses_accurate": 0.647, "touches": 84.2523, "possession_lost": 11.9123, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7026, "aerial_won": 1.0183, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.0881, "tackles_won": 1.1003, "tackles": 1.9734, "clearances": 1.6131, "total_contest": 1.6707, "won_contest": 1.017, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0645, "fouls_drawn": 3.0582, "blocks": 0.1714, "big_chances_created": 0.3147, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 25.6251, "total_progression": 73.1376, "progressive_carries": 0.8196, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0069, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2594, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 3.0762, "after": 3.0582 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.1906, "after": 2.1799 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6336, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.5239, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 66.7469, "accurate_pass": 59.0639, "duels_won": 7.2053, "total_long_balls": 4.7484, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.5979, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4659, "crosses_total": 2.2207, "crosses_accurate": 0.6591, "touches": 85.8293, "possession_lost": 12.1353, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7906, "aerial_won": 1.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.1085, "tackles_won": 1.1209, "tackles": 2.0103, "clearances": 1.6433, "total_contest": 1.702, "won_contest": 1.036, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0844, "fouls_drawn": 3.1154, "blocks": 0.1746, "big_chances_created": 0.3206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0453, "ball_carries": 26.1047, "total_progression": 74.5066, "progressive_carries": 0.8349, "shots_off_target": 0.3825, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.79, "projection_minutes": 23.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0187, "appearance_probability": 0.344 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6336, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.5239, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 66.7469, "accurate_pass": 59.0639, "duels_won": 7.2053, "total_long_balls": 4.7484, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.5979, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4659, "crosses_total": 2.2207, "crosses_accurate": 0.6591, "touches": 85.8293, "possession_lost": 12.1353, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7906, "aerial_won": 1.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.1085, "tackles_won": 1.1209, "tackles": 2.0103, "clearances": 1.6433, "total_contest": 1.702, "won_contest": 1.036, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0844, "fouls_drawn": 3.1154, "blocks": 0.1746, "big_chances_created": 0.3206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0453, "ball_carries": 26.1047, "total_progression": 74.5066, "progressive_carries": 0.8349, "shots_off_target": 0.3825, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6336, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.5239, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 66.7469, "accurate_pass": 59.0639, "duels_won": 7.2053, "total_long_balls": 4.7484, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.5979, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4659, "crosses_total": 2.2207, "crosses_accurate": 0.6591, "touches": 85.8293, "possession_lost": 12.1353, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7906, "aerial_won": 1.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.1085, "tackles_won": 1.1209, "tackles": 2.0103, "clearances": 1.6433, "total_contest": 1.702, "won_contest": 1.036, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0844, "fouls_drawn": 3.1154, "blocks": 0.1746, "big_chances_created": 0.3206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0453, "ball_carries": 26.1047, "total_progression": 74.5066, "progressive_carries": 0.8349, "shots_off_target": 0.3825, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.344, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6336, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.5239, "rating": 7.1346, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 66.7469, "accurate_pass": 59.0639, "duels_won": 7.2053, "total_long_balls": 4.7484, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.5979, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4659, "crosses_total": 2.2207, "crosses_accurate": 0.6591, "touches": 85.8293, "possession_lost": 12.1353, "dispossessed": 1.0469, "duels_lost": 4.7906, "aerial_won": 1.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.9923, "interceptions": 1.1085, "tackles_won": 1.1209, "tackles": 2.0103, "clearances": 1.6433, "total_contest": 1.702, "won_contest": 1.036, "challenges_lost": 0.9587, "fouls": 1.0844, "fouls_drawn": 3.1154, "blocks": 0.1746, "big_chances_created": 0.3206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0001, "xgot": 0.0453, "ball_carries": 26.1047, "total_progression": 74.5066, "progressive_carries": 0.8349, "shots_off_target": 0.3825, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 233, "fifa_rank": 207.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "player_id": 934354, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 42, "height": 185, "market_value": 85000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 130, "progressive_carries": 7, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.3134, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "expected_assists": 0.1725, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0567, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.3442, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "expected_assists": 0.5659, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0975, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3029, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 357, "combined_rank_score": 231.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 322.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0189, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 141.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.821, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Renê", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Amanov", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Aboubacar Toungara", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Alarcón", "ranking": 362 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 27.068308036908746, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.37, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0117, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (44 historical appearances) to 27.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0576, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2404, "total_shots": 0.6558, "expected_assists": 0.0792, "key_pass": 0.8619, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 25.8918, "accurate_pass": 22.8705, "duels_won": 2.7181, "total_long_balls": 0.5216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0796, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2496, "crosses_total": 1.9626, "crosses_accurate": 0.3197, "touches": 41.0143, "possession_lost": 10.6709, "dispossessed": 1.6591, "duels_lost": 5.4338, "aerial_lost": 0.5416, "total_contest": 2.8712, "won_contest": 0.9945, "ball_recovery": 2.2139, "challenges_lost": 0.42, "fouls": 1.0657, "fouls_drawn": 0.5297, "assists": 0.261, "assist_rate": 0.261, "interceptions": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8941, "clearances": 0.2517, "blocks": 0.0799, "big_chances_created": 0.3475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0121, "xgot": 0.1474, "offsides": 0.7533, "ball_carries": 17.4253, "total_progression": 85.3525, "progressive_carries": 4.496, "shots_off_target": 0.4154 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0927, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 18.4504, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 16.2496, "accuratePass": 22.8705, "totalShots": 1.2515 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05755528435111046, "model_output": 0.0576, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0928 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.0576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.632617 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.161838 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.057641 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.057125 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.055889 } ], "others_margin": -0.269965 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08882679045200348, "model_output": 0.0888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0136, "total": 0.0888, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533971 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.111286 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.063152 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058208 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.040148 } ], "others_margin": -0.142624 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2403944432735443, "model_output": 0.2404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2254 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.2404, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.545366 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.087032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055511 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.047771 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.034996 } ], "others_margin": -0.101528 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6558253765106201, "model_output": 0.6558, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0865 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0383 } ], "others": -0.0727, "total": 0.6558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.509138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.086474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.048265 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.046647 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.038347 } ], "others_margin": -0.072747 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0791502371430397, "model_output": 0.0792, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0168, "total": 0.0792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.345193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.203793 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.106595 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.04675 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.044234 } ], "others_margin": 0.237846 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8619334697723389, "model_output": 0.8619, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2298 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0846 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.1506, "total": 0.8619, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.41215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.178873 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.145836 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.069994 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.061662 } ], "others_margin": 0.192194 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.820955276489258, "model_output": 6.821, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0272, "total": 6.821, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071934 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038205 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01953 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017551 } ], "others_margin": 0.027227 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.886)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0582, "goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.2432, "total_shots": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0801, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 26.1947, "accurate_pass": 23.1381, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 0.5277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0805, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4397, "crosses_total": 1.9856, "crosses_accurate": 0.3234, "touches": 41.4942, "possession_lost": 10.7957, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 5.4974, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 2.9048, "won_contest": 1.0061, "ball_recovery": 2.2398, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.0782, "fouls_drawn": 0.5359, "assists": 0.2641, "assist_rate": 0.2641, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.4882, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.2546, "blocks": 0.0808, "big_chances_created": 0.3516, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.1491, "offsides": 0.7621, "ball_carries": 17.6292, "total_progression": 86.3511, "progressive_carries": 4.5486, "shots_off_target": 0.4203 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 85000000, "quality_factor": 0.8859, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0582, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.2428, "total_shots": 0.6602, "expected_assists": 0.0801, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 26.1947, "accurate_pass": 23.1381, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 0.5277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0805, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4397, "crosses_total": 1.9724, "crosses_accurate": 0.3234, "touches": 41.4942, "possession_lost": 10.7957, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 5.4974, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 2.9048, "won_contest": 1.0061, "ball_recovery": 2.2398, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.0713, "fouls_drawn": 0.5346, "assists": 0.2626, "assist_rate": 0.2626, "interceptions": 0.2473, "tackles_won": 0.4848, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.2546, "blocks": 0.0808, "big_chances_created": 0.3516, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.1491, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 17.6292, "total_progression": 86.3511, "progressive_carries": 4.5486, "shots_off_target": 0.4203 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9856, "after": 1.9724 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0782, "after": 1.0713 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.7621, "after": 0.7571 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goals": 0.1336, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 0.9947, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "key_pass": 1.308, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6595, "crosses_total": 2.9586, "crosses_accurate": 0.4851, "touches": 62.2413, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8.2461, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 4.3572, "won_contest": 1.5091, "ball_recovery": 3.3597, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8019, "assists": 0.3939, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "interceptions": 0.371, "tackles_won": 0.7272, "tackles": 1.3569, "clearances": 0.3819, "blocks": 0.1212, "big_chances_created": 0.5274, "big_chances_missed": 0.0183, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 26.4438, "total_progression": 129.5267, "progressive_carries": 6.8229, "shots_off_target": 0.6304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.07, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.37 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goals": 0.1336, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 0.9947, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "key_pass": 1.308, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6595, "crosses_total": 2.9586, "crosses_accurate": 0.4851, "touches": 62.2413, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8.2461, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 4.3572, "won_contest": 1.5091, "ball_recovery": 3.3597, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8019, "assists": 0.3939, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "interceptions": 0.371, "tackles_won": 0.7272, "tackles": 1.3569, "clearances": 0.3819, "blocks": 0.1212, "big_chances_created": 0.5274, "big_chances_missed": 0.0183, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 26.4438, "total_progression": 129.5267, "progressive_carries": 6.8229, "shots_off_target": 0.6304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 0.9947, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "key_pass": 1.308, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6595, "crosses_total": 2.9586, "crosses_accurate": 0.4851, "touches": 62.2413, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8.2461, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 4.3572, "won_contest": 1.5091, "ball_recovery": 3.3597, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8019, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.371, "tackles_won": 0.7272, "tackles": 1.3569, "clearances": 0.3819, "blocks": 0.1212, "big_chances_created": 0.5274, "big_chances_missed": 0.0183, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 26.4438, "total_progression": 129.5267, "progressive_carries": 6.8229, "shots_off_target": 0.6304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.37, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.1336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 0.9947, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "key_pass": 1.308, "rating": 6.821, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6595, "crosses_total": 2.9586, "crosses_accurate": 0.4851, "touches": 62.2413, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8.2461, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 4.3572, "won_contest": 1.5091, "ball_recovery": 3.3597, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8019, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.371, "tackles_won": 0.7272, "tackles": 1.3569, "clearances": 0.3819, "blocks": 0.1212, "big_chances_created": 0.5274, "big_chances_missed": 0.0183, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 26.4438, "total_progression": 129.5267, "progressive_carries": 6.8229, "shots_off_target": 0.6304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 357, "fifa_rank": 141.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1144, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023993, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "expected_assists": 0.1454, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2732, "expected_assists": 0.1761, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025116, "match_date": "2026-01-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025079, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025061, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1294, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025286, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.2415, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 257, "combined_rank_score": 193.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 184.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2286, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7279, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Carvallo", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Seong-Jin Kang", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking": 256 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.794636121884068, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6270289146310939, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0142, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (28 historical appearances) to 26.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goals": 0.0969, "goal_rate": 0.0969, "shots_on_target": 0.4215, "total_shots": 1.0677, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.7051, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.3404, "accurate_pass": 9.9684, "duels_won": 0.9588, "total_long_balls": 0.1252, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1252, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1646, "crosses_total": 1.5107, "crosses_accurate": 0.5729, "touches": 17.4997, "possession_lost": 3.4109, "dispossessed": 0.1398, "duels_lost": 1.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.2679, "ball_recovery": 1.0184, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.2147, "fouls_drawn": 0.307, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2821, "clearances": 0.4729, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1199, "xgot": 0.0623, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.156, "total_progression": 36.9446, "progressive_carries": 1.0168, "shots_off_target": 0.6462 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 8.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1699, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.8868, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.1616, "accuratePass": 18.6901, "totalShots": 1.8918 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07558724284172058, "model_output": 0.0756, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0756, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.686154 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.070414 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.055452 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.045419 } ], "others_margin": -0.051793 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09689608216285706, "model_output": 0.0969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.566331 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.069226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046254 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04052 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.030937 } ], "others_margin": -0.075374 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42145490646362305, "model_output": 0.4215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1956 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 0.4215, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.09347 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.071554 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.046626 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036687 } ], "others_margin": 0.038097 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0676747560501099, "model_output": 1.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1498 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0381 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 1.0677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530625 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.149753 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.044793 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039459 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.038146 } ], "others_margin": -0.0546 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05680103227496147, "model_output": 0.0568, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.0568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377104 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.16473 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.101683 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.101443 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.062209 } ], "others_margin": 0.02369 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7050543427467346, "model_output": 0.7051, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.1263, "total": 0.7051, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.348021 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.12607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.088167 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050987 } ], "others_margin": 0.1975 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727874755859375, "model_output": 6.7279, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0222, "total": 6.7279, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025864 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.023868 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.013183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011615 } ], "others_margin": 0.022256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0983, "goal_rate": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.4274, "total_shots": 1.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.7151, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.6554 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1116, "after": 0.1028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0838, "after": 0.0772 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "scorer_weight": 0.1228, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0401, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0618, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0321, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Matheus Nunes": { "player_id": 945122, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 183, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 80, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 91, "accurate_pass": 84, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 661, "combined_rank_score": 335.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 394.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9471, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8499, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Nunes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Tigrão", "ranking": 656 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Montiel", "ranking": 657 }, { "player_name": "Orkun Kökçü", "ranking": 658 }, { "player_name": "Keon-woo Bak", "ranking": 659 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Jurman", "ranking": 660 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Plaza", "ranking": 662 }, { "player_name": "Yerko González", "ranking": 663 }, { "player_name": "Kim Tae-han", "ranking": 664 }, { "player_name": "Kwang-yeon Lee", "ranking": 665 }, { "player_name": "Shahzodbek Rahmatullayev", "ranking": 666 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.633, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0106, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (39 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4093, "tackles": 0.615, "tackles_won": 0.4075, "clearances": 0.9919, "aerial_won": 0.5171, "total_shots": 0.1968, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.069, "accurate_pass": 14.3003, "duels_won": 1.9417, "total_long_balls": 2.4295, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1079, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0739, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4131, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8872, "crosses_total": 0.7775, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.447, "possession_lost": 5.0991, "dispossessed": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 1.2225, "aerial_lost": 0.3304, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3304, "challenges_lost": 0.6113, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.0, "total_progression": 64.3268, "progressive_carries": 2.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1968 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:04:32.310343+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.6971, "aerialWon": 1.5451, "totalClearance_p90": 2.8743, "totalTackle": 1.5687, "defensive_actions": 2.1437 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4093440771102905, "model_output": 0.4093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.449 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.4093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.150447, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.73798 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.119304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.076753 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.024714 } ], "others_margin": 0.016729 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6150302886962891, "model_output": 0.615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2494 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3831, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7905 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.847662 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.050564 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033486 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.032509 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.024869 } ], "others_margin": -0.037177 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.40749427676200867, "model_output": 0.4075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4857 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.4075, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.855226 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.049442 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.032857 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.026323 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.024668 } ], "others_margin": 0.045255 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9918666481971741, "model_output": 0.9919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9602 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.151 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0494 } ], "others": -0.1315, "total": 0.9919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849341 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.108824 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.056183 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.043 } ], "others_margin": -0.124518 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5170992016792297, "model_output": 0.5171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7258 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0398 } ], "others": -0.0921, "total": 0.5171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.742344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.11307 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.065707 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.063287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.063275 } ], "others_margin": -0.163793 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19676198065280914, "model_output": 0.1968, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2052 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.092 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.1968, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092046 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.020719 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.015941 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014271 } ], "others_margin": -0.00328 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849871635437012, "model_output": 6.8499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.8499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.118638 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070728 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025761 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01331 } ], "others_margin": -0.023475 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4137, "tackles": 0.6215, "tackles_won": 0.4118, "clearances": 1.0024, "aerial_won": 0.5226, "total_shots": 0.1989, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.2499, "accurate_pass": 14.4519, "duels_won": 1.9623, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1196, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4917, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9602, "crosses_total": 0.7857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7273, "possession_lost": 5.1532, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.2355, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3551, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0106, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1378, "total_progression": 65.0087, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1989 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4129, "tackles": 0.6215, "tackles_won": 0.411, "clearances": 1.0024, "aerial_won": 0.5226, "total_shots": 0.1985, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.86, "total_pass": 17.2499, "accurate_pass": 14.4519, "duels_won": 1.9623, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1196, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4917, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0904, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9602, "crosses_total": 0.7872, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7273, "possession_lost": 5.1532, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.2355, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3551, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0101, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1378, "total_progression": 65.0087, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1989 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3096, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.48, "projection_minutes": 27.86, "minutes_scale": 0.9146, "appearance_probability": 0.633 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 661, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0003, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.5684, "tackles_won": 0.3759, "clearances": 0.9168, "aerial_won": 0.478, "total_shots": 0.1819, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 25.48, "total_pass": 15.7763, "accurate_pass": 13.2173, "duels_won": 1.7947, "total_long_balls": 2.2456, "accurate_long_balls": 1.024, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4625, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8517, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3656, "crosses_total": 0.72, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.4441, "possession_lost": 4.713, "dispossessed": 0.2839, "duels_lost": 1.13, "aerial_lost": 0.3339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.1539, "challenges_lost": 0.6178, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.0155, "total_progression": 59.4552, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0062, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1144, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023993, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "expected_assists": 0.1454, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2732, "expected_assists": 0.1761, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025116, "match_date": "2026-01-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025079, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025061, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1294, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025286, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.2415, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 257, "combined_rank_score": 193.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 184.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2286, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7279, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Carvallo", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Seong-Jin Kang", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking": 256 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.794636121884068, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6270289146310939, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0142, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (28 historical appearances) to 26.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goals": 0.0969, "goal_rate": 0.0969, "shots_on_target": 0.4215, "total_shots": 1.0677, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.7051, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.3404, "accurate_pass": 9.9684, "duels_won": 0.9588, "total_long_balls": 0.1252, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1252, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1646, "crosses_total": 1.5107, "crosses_accurate": 0.5729, "touches": 17.4997, "possession_lost": 3.4109, "dispossessed": 0.1398, "duels_lost": 1.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.2679, "ball_recovery": 1.0184, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.2147, "fouls_drawn": 0.307, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2821, "clearances": 0.4729, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1199, "xgot": 0.0623, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.156, "total_progression": 36.9446, "progressive_carries": 1.0168, "shots_off_target": 0.6462 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-23T10:05:54.625928+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 8.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1699, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.8868, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.1616, "accuratePass": 18.6901, "totalShots": 1.8918 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07558724284172058, "model_output": 0.0756, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0756, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.686154 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.070414 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.055452 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.045419 } ], "others_margin": -0.051793 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09689608216285706, "model_output": 0.0969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.566331 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.069226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046254 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04052 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.030937 } ], "others_margin": -0.075374 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42145490646362305, "model_output": 0.4215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1956 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 0.4215, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.09347 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.071554 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.046626 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036687 } ], "others_margin": 0.038097 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0676747560501099, "model_output": 1.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1498 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0381 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 1.0677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530625 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.149753 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.044793 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039459 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.038146 } ], "others_margin": -0.0546 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05680103227496147, "model_output": 0.0568, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.0568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377104 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.16473 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.101683 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.101443 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.062209 } ], "others_margin": 0.02369 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7050543427467346, "model_output": 0.7051, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.1263, "total": 0.7051, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.348021 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.12607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.088167 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050987 } ], "others_margin": 0.1975 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727874755859375, "model_output": 6.7279, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0222, "total": 6.7279, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025864 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.023868 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.013183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011615 } ], "others_margin": 0.022256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0983, "goal_rate": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.4274, "total_shots": 1.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.7151, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.6554 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goals": 0.1431, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.7834, xG scale 1.4686, xA scale 1.4686, team xA 1.82 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7834, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2382, "team_expected_assists": 1.8184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6943, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4686, "xa_scale": 1.4686, "opponent_lambda": 0.89, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1116, "after": 0.1028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0838, "after": 0.0772 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "scorer_weight": 0.1228, "squad_weight_total": 3.0662, "weight_share": 0.0401, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.2314, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.2314, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.524, "runner_up": "Jérémy Doku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3636 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6221, "total_shots": 1.576, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 1.0408, "rating": 6.7279, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0847, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9539, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.511, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0948, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "finishing_factor": 1.1949, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0618, "squad_weight_total": 1.923, "weight_share": 0.0321, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.4189, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4189, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2936, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.62, "expected_assists": 1.82, "total_shots": 19, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 590, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.855, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3778, "xg_multiplier": 0.9397, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.378 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.855, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1624, "xg_multiplier": 0.8153, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Mbaye (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Emiliano Buendía", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.855, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1423, "xg_multiplier": 0.7082, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emiliano Buendía (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alysson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.855, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1388, "xg_multiplier": 0.7902, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alysson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.893, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0447, "xg_multiplier": 0.9611, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 98000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (CDM) is evenly matched against Ayyoub Bouaddi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €98M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "João Gomes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.893, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.0324, "xg_multiplier": 0.8781, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 98000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Gomes (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ayyoub Bouaddi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €98M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Phil Foden", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 62000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.857, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.2078, "xg_multiplier": 0.9875, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Phil Foden (LW) is evenly matched against Ian Maatsen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€62M vs €33M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.6708, "xg_multiplier": 1.2469, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Matty Cash and Tyrone Mings in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.671 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jérémy Doku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 70000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.871, "defenders": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.1981, "xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jérémy Doku (ST) is slightly favored against Matty Cash and Tyrone Mings in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€70M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Iliman Ndiaye", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.2073, "xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iliman Ndiaye (ST) is slightly favored against Matty Cash and Tyrone Mings in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.0429, "xg_multiplier": 1.0389, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayyoub Bouaddi (CDM) is evenly matched against Boubacar Kamara in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.1341, "xg_multiplier": 0.9932, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (CDM) is evenly matched against Boubacar Kamara in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.764, "away_midfield_power": 0.882, "home_creative_power": 0.697, "away_creative_power": 0.925, "home_defensive_power": 0.785, "away_defensive_power": 0.759, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.464, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Phil Foden", "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Enzo Fernández" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 3.4, "key_personal_duel": "Boubacar Kamara vs Enzo Fernández", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.89, "away_lambda": 2.619, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ibrahim Mbaye": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emiliano Buendía": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alysson": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Enzo Fernández", "Phil Foden" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Phil Foden" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matty Cash": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Jérémy Doku", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyrone Mings": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Jérémy Doku", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Jérémy Doku" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Ibrahim Mbaye", "Emiliano Buendía", "Alysson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Ibrahim Mbaye", "Emiliano Buendía", "Alysson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Phil Foden": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jérémy Doku": { "opponents": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Ibrahim Mbaye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Alysson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "opponents": [ "Emiliano Buendía" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Boubacar Kamara vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 1.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1659, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8623, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9648, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6523, "away_avg_quality": 0.867, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2147, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.2444, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.1019, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.1984, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4596, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2528, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1471, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8984, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0363 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.989, "result": 1.0249 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0249 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1786 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9004, "result": 1.0612 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.9109 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8623, "result": 0.7855 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1659, "result": 0.9514 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9514, "result": 0.9514, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4596, "factor": 0.8529, "pre": 0.9514, "result": 0.8115 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8115 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.031 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.031 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.031, "result": 1.031, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.0 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.0, "result": 0.9929, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.964, "pre": 0.9929, "result": 0.957 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.957 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9298, "input_total": 3.509, "result": 0.8898 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8898, "result": 0.89, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.89 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.461, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.4582 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.014, "result": 1.4787 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4787 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4787 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1441, "result": 1.6917 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.5104 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9648, "result": 1.4571 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.6371 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.6371, "result": 1.6371, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4596, "factor": 1.2528, "pre": 1.6371, "result": 2.051 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.051 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.271 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 2.271 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.271, "result": 2.271, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 2.498 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 2.498, "result": 2.5157, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1199, "pre": 2.5157, "result": 2.817 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 2.817 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9298, "input_total": 3.509, "result": 2.6192 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.6192, "result": 2.619, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.619 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4596, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1199, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.964, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.9929, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.5157, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.031, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.271, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.89, "final_away_lambda": 2.619 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9004, "attack_index": 0.935, "defense_concede_index": 0.841, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.36, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.24, "opponent_ppg": 2.24 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1441, "attack_index": 1.255, "defense_concede_index": 1.088, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.82, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.58, "team_ppg": 2.24, "opponent_ppg": 1.24 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Aston Villa vs Man City. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.031, Away 2.271). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.890, Away 2.619 (most likely score 0-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.89, "away_lambda": 2.619, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.031, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.271 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T13:32:14Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }