{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1048, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1048, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0608, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2333, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1105 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1048 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0983 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0943 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0608 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0596, "0-1": 0.0608, "0-2": 0.032, "0-3": 0.0111, "0-4": 0.0029, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1048, "1-1": 0.1105, "1-2": 0.0573, "1-3": 0.0199, "1-4": 0.0052, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0943, "2-1": 0.0983, "2-2": 0.0512, "2-3": 0.0178, "2-4": 0.0046, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0563, "3-1": 0.0586, "3-2": 0.0305, "3-3": 0.0106, "3-4": 0.0028, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0252, "4-1": 0.0262, "4-2": 0.0137, "4-3": 0.0047, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.009, "5-1": 0.0094, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0017, "6-0": 0.0027, "6-1": 0.0028, "6-2": 0.0015, "6-3": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5482, "draw": 0.2333, "away_win": 0.2185 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5379, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4621, "btts_yes": 0.5397, "btts_no": 0.4603, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3527, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1671 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 7.05, "ATR": 6.96, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.96, "MCR": 6.96, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.95 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Chelsea vs Tottenham. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Chelsea 7W-1D-2L vs Tottenham over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): João Pedro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Rogers vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.17, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.789, "away_lambda": 1.042, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 7, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0357, "away_multiplier": 0.9643 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1105, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5482, "draw": 0.2333, "away_win": 0.2185 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5482, "fair_spread": 0.747, "fair_total": 2.831, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.789, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.042, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5379, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5397, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3527, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1671, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.5385, "probability": 0.4164, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Solanke (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2266, "probability": 0.2028, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pedro Neto (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2299, "probability": 0.2054, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sandro Tonali (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.1285, "probability": 0.1206, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.831, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 956, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5482, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.75 goals and fair total 2.83.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tottenham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on João Pedro against Conor Gallagher, Micky van de Ven in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through João Pedro; bench watchlist: Estêvão, Geovany Quenda, Valentín Barco.", "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sávio, Xavi Simons, Mykhailo Mudryk.", "Assist usage should flow through Pedro Neto; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.42 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tottenham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Tottenham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Chelsea": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "João Pedro": { "player_id": 975079, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 186, "market_value": 92000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5385, "goal_rate": 0.4632, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 13.1183, "dispossessed": 1.3732, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2868, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.7285, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0427, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Conor Gallagher, Micky van de Ven", "opponent_faced": "Conor Gallagher, Micky van de Ven", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4164, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0866, "finishing_factor": 1.077, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363884, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2776, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5957, "expected_assists": 0.0998, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2868, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2265, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.627, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5945, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1746, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4644, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1846, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 173, "combined_rank_score": 148.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 275.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0294, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "João Pedro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Víctor Felipe Méndez", "ranking": 168 }, { "player_name": "Serhou Guirassy", "ranking": 169 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Hall", "ranking": 170 }, { "player_name": "Reinaldo", "ranking": 171 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Martínez", "ranking": 172 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dostonbek Khamdamov", "ranking": 174 }, { "player_name": "Deniz Undav", "ranking": 175 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Fernández", "ranking": 176 }, { "player_name": "Rey Manaj", "ranking": 177 }, { "player_name": "Seon-min Kim", "ranking": 178 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0497, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 }, { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": 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"margin": 0.364283 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.186399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.116827 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110711 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.068852 } ], "others_margin": 0.077107 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8407631516456604, "model_output": 0.8408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0788 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0242 } ], "others": 0.146, "total": 0.8408, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.311281 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.179963 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.092019 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.035395 } ], "others_margin": 0.190812 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.6485068798065186, "model_output": 2.6485, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.858 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.134 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0626 } ], "others": 0.3313, "total": 2.6485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.858003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.201914 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.134026 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063778 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.062581 } ], "others_margin": 0.33131 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.049674987792969, "model_output": 7.0497, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0927 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0287, "total": 7.0497, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.092694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044179 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.024906 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.023608 } ], "others_margin": 0.028738 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0153, quality 0.894)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7669, "expected_assists": 0.1539, "assists": 0.1927, "assist_rate": 0.1927, "expected_goals": 0.2209, "goals": 0.2541, "goal_rate": 0.2541, "shots_on_target": 0.8536, "total_shots": 2.689, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 88.28, "total_pass": 34.4456, "accurate_pass": 29.0809, "duels_won": 4.5972, "total_long_balls": 2.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0168, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3056, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2063, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8746, "crosses_total": 1.3069, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 53.0263, "possession_lost": 12.2655, "dispossessed": 1.7345, "duels_lost": 5.0839, "aerial_won": 0.068, "aerial_lost": 0.1449, "interceptions": 0.3445, "tackles_won": 0.4406, "tackles": 1.3125, "clearances": 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 6.7447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018348 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016078 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.01318 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011344 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.008799 } ], "others_margin": 0.004418 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.038, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.2979, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.383, "fouls_drawn": 0.2239, "blocks": 0.5965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2171, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2203, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8383, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2239, "after": 0.2327 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.038, "after": 1.0317 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9281, "after": 0.9231 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2203, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2203, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9579, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.053 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1845, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9505, "total_progression": 25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9579, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2453, "fifa_rank": 1127.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { 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25.8115, "progressive_carries": 1.0446, "key_pass": 0.5536, "shots_off_target": 0.2979, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9579, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0027, "squad_weight_total": 2.007, "weight_share": 0.0013, "finishing_factor": 0.9579, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.58, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.58, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3892 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9231, "tackles": 1.714, "tackles_won": 1.0317, "clearances": 2.387, "aerial_won": 0.946, "total_shots": 0.3001, "rating": 6.7447, "minutes": 75.45, "total_pass": 34.5157, "accurate_pass": 30.5849, "duels_won": 3.837, "total_long_balls": 1.9366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4637, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7133, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0749, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8714, "crosses_total": 0.0463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4558, "possession_lost": 6.6356, "dispossessed": 0.1615, "duels_lost": 2.3584, "aerial_lost": 1.2953, "total_contest": 0.8131, "won_contest": 0.754, "ball_recovery": 2.7457, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.2327, "blocks": 0.5965, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2203, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.053, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.3261, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143468 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.062825 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.056743 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039279 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.03023 } ], "others_margin": -0.079783 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9378040432929993, "model_output": 0.9378, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1514 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": -0.1116, "total": 0.9378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151447 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.104119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042317 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.02418 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023282 } ], "others_margin": -0.111565 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.078125476837158, "model_output": 7.0781, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 7.0781, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.100605 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.072978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026553 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.026115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020952 } ], "others_margin": -0.02513 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2625, "expected_assists": 0.1326, "assists": 0.1275, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goals": 0.0983, "goal_rate": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.3253, "total_shots": 0.9355, "rating": 7.0781, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 54.5599, "accurate_pass": 44.7526, "duels_won": 1.9597, "total_long_balls": 6.1639, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6412, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1115, "crosses_total": 3.0375, "crosses_accurate": 0.8236, "touches": 64.5342, "possession_lost": 13.1916, "dispossessed": 0.244, "duels_lost": 2.0427, "aerial_won": 0.8207, "aerial_lost": 0.6977, "interceptions": 0.4438, "tackles_won": 0.4948, "tackles": 0.8835, "clearances": 1.4909, "total_contest": 0.3479, "won_contest": 0.1512, "challenges_lost": 0.4989, "fouls": 0.4054, "fouls_drawn": 0.1256, "blocks": 0.4013, "big_chances_created": 0.2211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0792, "ball_carries": 11.7572, "total_progression": 21.7247, "progressive_carries": 0.5294, "shots_off_target": 0.6102 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2625, "expected_assists": 0.1326, "assists": 0.1275, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goals": 0.0983, "goal_rate": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.3253, "total_shots": 0.9355, "rating": 7.0781, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 54.5599, "accurate_pass": 44.7526, "duels_won": 1.9597, "total_long_balls": 6.1639, 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"expected_assists": 0.1326, "assists": 0.1275, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "expected_goals": 0.0762, "goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.3148, "total_shots": 0.9052, "rating": 7.0781, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 54.5599, "accurate_pass": 44.7526, "duels_won": 1.9597, "total_long_balls": 6.1639, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6412, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1115, "crosses_total": 3.0375, "crosses_accurate": 0.8236, "touches": 64.5342, "possession_lost": 13.1916, "dispossessed": 0.244, "duels_lost": 2.0427, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6977, "interceptions": 0.4438, "tackles_won": 0.4948, "tackles": 0.8835, "clearances": 1.4909, "total_contest": 0.3479, "won_contest": 0.1512, "challenges_lost": 0.4989, "fouls": 0.4054, "fouls_drawn": 0.1256, "blocks": 0.4013, "big_chances_created": 0.2211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0766, "ball_carries": 11.7572, "total_progression": 21.7247, "progressive_carries": 0.5294, "shots_off_target": 0.5904, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9676, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9676, "skill_edge": -0.042, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5308, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5308 } ], "xg_override": 0.0762 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8207, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9355, "after": 0.9052 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6102, "after": 0.5904 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3253, "after": 0.3148 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2625, "expected_assists": 0.1326, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0762, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3148, "total_shots": 0.9052, "rating": 7.0781, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 54.5599, "accurate_pass": 44.7526, "duels_won": 1.9597, "total_long_balls": 6.1639, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6412, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1115, "crosses_total": 3.0375, "crosses_accurate": 0.8236, "touches": 64.5342, "possession_lost": 13.1916, "dispossessed": 0.244, "duels_lost": 2.0427, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6977, "interceptions": 0.4438, "tackles_won": 0.4948, "tackles": 0.8835, "clearances": 1.4909, "total_contest": 0.3479, "won_contest": 0.1512, "challenges_lost": 0.4989, "fouls": 0.4054, "fouls_drawn": 0.1256, "blocks": 0.4013, "big_chances_created": 0.2211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0766, "ball_carries": 11.7572, "total_progression": 21.7247, "progressive_carries": 0.5294, "shots_off_target": 0.5904, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9676, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2625, "expected_assists": 0.181, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3148, "total_shots": 0.9052, "rating": 7.0781, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 54.5599, "accurate_pass": 44.7526, "duels_won": 1.9597, "total_long_balls": 6.1639, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2943, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6412, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1115, 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1.4385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.254371 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123821 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.094845 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083027 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.070693 } ], "others_margin": 0.121861 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.888096809387207, "model_output": 6.8881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.147, "goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.2158, "shots_on_target": 0.6583, "total_shots": 1.7967, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "key_pass": 1.4547, "rating": 6.8881, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 28.4129, "accurate_pass": 24.3377, "duels_won": 3.7104, "total_long_balls": 1.2342, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5109, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9707, "crosses_total": 4.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.8618, "touches": 46.5555, "possession_lost": 11.7348, "dispossessed": 0.5477, "duels_lost": 5.3107, "aerial_lost": 0.8488, "total_contest": 2.8943, "won_contest": 1.2946, "ball_recovery": 3.0238, "challenges_lost": 1.2487, "fouls": 1.0658, "fouls_drawn": 0.664, "assists": 0.2623, "assist_rate": 0.2623, "interceptions": 0.4283, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 0.358, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117876 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047548 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010739 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008764 } ], "others_margin": -0.035447 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831425189971924, "model_output": 6.8314, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0314, "total": 6.8314, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.043736 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021497 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021288 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017087 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0359, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0111, "tackles": 0.9761, "tackles_won": 0.6005, "clearances": 5.6972, "aerial_won": 2.6997, "total_shots": 0.3709, "rating": 6.8314, "minutes": 88.45, "total_pass": 60.3709, "accurate_pass": 53.4341, "duels_won": 4.1784, "total_long_balls": 4.0346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0384, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6119, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7194, "crosses_total": 0.0685, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.3138, "possession_lost": 7.8065, "dispossessed": 0.0806, "duels_lost": 2.2145, "aerial_lost": 1.5148, "total_contest": 0.0948, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 2.9595, "challenges_lost": 0.1311, "fouls": 0.488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2437, "blocks": 0.4919, "goals": 0.0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0154, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 893, "combined_rank_score": 418.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 457.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8914, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 380.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8051, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yeferson Soteldo", "ranking": 888 }, { "player_name": "Victor Stina", "ranking": 889 }, { "player_name": "Balde", "ranking": 890 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking": 896 }, { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", 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0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7757 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5711 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3786 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.146 } ], "others": 0.493, "total": 6.1131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.204143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127478 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.076357 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060931 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.026319 } ], "others_margin": 0.084089 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.187079668045044, "model_output": 2.1871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.147 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0787 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 2.1871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.203364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109962 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.074728 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.037348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036469 } ], "others_margin": -0.005119 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.510793149471283, "model_output": 0.5108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 0.5108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017422 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016639 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010187 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008188 } ], "others_margin": -0.022917 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.805134296417236, "model_output": 6.8051, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 6.8051, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015619 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011797 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.011171 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.010843 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010297 } ], "others_margin": 0.006855 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2062, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.732, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5167, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8644, "fouls_drawn": 0.3576, "blocks": 0.7199, "goals": 0.0165, "goal_rate": 0.0165, "assists": 0.0691, "assist_rate": 0.0691, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "shots_on_target": 0.2885, "big_chances_created": 0.0749, "xgot": 0.0309, "ball_carries": 17.2177, "total_progression": 53.4137, "progressive_carries": 0.5318, "key_pass": 0.1443, "shots_off_target": 0.2282 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 64000000, "quality_factor": 0.8608, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, 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"after": 0.7433 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8609, "fouls_drawn": 0.3588, "blocks": 0.7199, "goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "shots_on_target": 0.2858, "big_chances_created": 0.0749, "xgot": 0.0309, "ball_carries": 17.2177, "total_progression": 53.4137, "progressive_carries": 0.5318, "key_pass": 0.1443, "shots_off_target": 0.2282 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8609, "fouls_drawn": 0.3588, "blocks": 0.7199, "goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "shots_on_target": 0.2858, "big_chances_created": 0.0749, "xgot": 0.0309, "ball_carries": 17.2177, "total_progression": 53.4137, "progressive_carries": 0.5318, "key_pass": 0.1443, "shots_off_target": 0.2282, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8609, "fouls_drawn": 0.3588, "blocks": 0.7199, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "shots_on_target": 0.2858, "big_chances_created": 0.0749, "xgot": 0.0309, "ball_carries": 17.2177, "total_progression": 53.4137, "progressive_carries": 0.5318, "key_pass": 0.1443, "shots_off_target": 0.2282, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, 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"squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0807, "after": 0.1019 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0238, "after": 0.0325 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8609, "fouls_drawn": 0.3588, "blocks": 0.7199, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1019, "expected_assists": 0.0325, 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893, "fifa_rank": 380.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.0146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0032, "touches": 62.5683, "possession_lost": 5.7105, "dispossessed": 0.1571, "duels_lost": 3.0406, "aerial_lost": 1.7835, "total_contest": 0.0881, "won_contest": 0.079, "ball_recovery": 2.3654, "challenges_lost": 0.2335, "fouls": 0.8609, "fouls_drawn": 0.3588, "blocks": 0.7199, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1019, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.2858, "big_chances_created": 0.0749, "xgot": 0.039, "ball_carries": 17.2177, "total_progression": 53.4137, "progressive_carries": 0.5318, "key_pass": 0.1443, "shots_off_target": 0.2282, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0969, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0969, "goal_rate": 0.0163, "scorer_weight": 0.0815, "squad_weight_total": 2.007, "weight_share": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.58, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.58, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3892 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2041, "tackles": 1.2907, "tackles_won": 0.7433, "clearances": 6.1828, "aerial_won": 2.212, "total_shots": 0.5164, "rating": 6.8051, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 47.9995, "accurate_pass": 43.1956, "duels_won": 4.7244, "total_long_balls": 3.7063, "accurate_long_balls": 1.969, "total_own_half_passes": 30.3507, 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"model_output": 6.6297, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0551, "total": 6.6297, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044688 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018266 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013505 } ], "others_margin": -0.055012 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0110, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0517, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8237 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0237, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0517, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 15.9304, "progressive_carries": 0.6848, "key_pass": 0.1768, "shots_off_target": 0.2381, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8237, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3448, "fifa_rank": 2182.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6991, "tackles": 1.9671, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "clearances": 2.6059, "aerial_won": 0.8279, "total_shots": 0.32, "rating": 6.6297, "minutes": 82.74, "total_pass": 40.7534, "accurate_pass": 36.036, "duels_won": 4.8218, "total_long_balls": 2.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 24.079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9768, "crosses_total": 0.4621, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1984, "possession_lost": 9.6782, "dispossessed": 0.6177, "duels_lost": 3.2785, "aerial_lost": 0.8975, "total_contest": 1.6019, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 3.195, "challenges_lost": 0.5368, "fouls": 0.5742, "fouls_drawn": 0.8438, "blocks": 0.3135, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0517, "ball_carries": 12.427, "total_progression": 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} ] } } ] }, "Mike Penders": { "player_id": 1149148, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 199, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.081, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1125.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9886, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 }, { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Wales", "ranking": 1458 }, { "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking": 1459 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0409, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Chelsea, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0703, "goals_prevented": -0.182, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.0, "accurate_pass": 4.0, "total_long_balls": 11.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 18.0, "clearances": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 4.0, "high_claims": 1.0, "punches": 1.0, "aerial_won": 2.0, "sweeper_actions": 2.0, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.0, "possession_lost": 7.0, "duels_won": 2.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:04:55.355626+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.3333, "saves": 1.0, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.31, "save_contribution": 1.326, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 1.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0702738761901855, "model_output": 3.0703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 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"punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1246 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0897 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0576, "total": -0.182, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.124567 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.089702 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.061709 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017664 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017468 } ], "others_margin": -0.057662 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.988606929779053, "model_output": 6.9886, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0315, "total": 6.9886, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.990849, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.054798 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.039756 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.027993 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.019358 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.017866 } ], "others_margin": -0.031581 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0409, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0409, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.081, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.081 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.081, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.081, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.3, "after": 9.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.52, "after": 2.42 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.86, "after": 0.83 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1958, "goals_prevented": -0.1894, "rating": 6.9886, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 11.4499, "accurate_pass": 4.1636, "total_long_balls": 11.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 18.7362, "clearances": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "high_claims": 1.0409, "punches": 1.0409, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "sweeper_actions": 2.0818, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0818, "saves_inside_box": 1.0409, "possession_lost": 7.2863, "duels_won": 2.0818, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0409, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.081, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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"predicted": 7.108041286468506, "model_output": 7.108, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1113 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0644, "total": 7.108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.11131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.025178 }, { "name": 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"name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.02, "total": -0.0952, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.057616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.024774 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024431 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.014972 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014574 } ], "others_margin": 0.019842 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886404514312744, "model_output": 6.8864, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0351 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9908, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.630)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8321, "goals_prevented": -0.0957, "rating": 6.8864, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 35.1694, "accurate_pass": 21.9286, "total_long_balls": 18.3406, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4758, "touches": 46.4432, "clearances": 0.67, "ball_recovery": 8.407, "high_claims": 1.5975, "punches": 0.6157, "aerial_won": 0.3932, "sweeper_actions": 0.787, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7851, "saves_inside_box": 2.421, "possession_lost": 13.4207, "duels_won": 0.8144, "duels_lost": 0.0499, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4619, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19900000, "quality_factor": 0.6301, "boost_factor": 1.0046, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, 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substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.5108, "goals_prevented": -0.0173, "rating": 6.8864, "minutes": 5.16, "total_pass": 6.3615, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "total_long_balls": 3.3175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9905, "touches": 8.4007, "clearances": 0.1212, "ball_recovery": 1.5207, "high_claims": 0.289, "punches": 0.1114, "aerial_won": 0.0711, "sweeper_actions": 0.1424, "sweeper_accurate": 0.142, "saves_inside_box": 0.4379, "possession_lost": 2.4275, "duels_won": 0.1473, "duels_lost": 0.009, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.0831, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.147, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.147, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.5108, "goals_prevented": -0.0173, "rating": 6.8864, "minutes": 5.16, "total_pass": 6.3615, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "total_long_balls": 3.3175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9905, "touches": 8.4007, "clearances": 0.1212, "ball_recovery": 1.5207, "high_claims": 0.289, "punches": 0.1114, "aerial_won": 0.0711, "sweeper_actions": 0.1424, "sweeper_accurate": 0.142, "saves_inside_box": 0.4379, "possession_lost": 2.4275, "duels_won": 0.1473, "duels_lost": 0.009, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.0831, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.147, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.103, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.4073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0312 } ], "others": 0.0946, "total": 0.7008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.407272 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.303658 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.035658 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032212 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.031231 } ], "others_margin": 0.094449 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.925846576690674, "model_output": 6.9258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], 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{ "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0472 } ], "others": 0.3946, "total": 1.3746, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.696209 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.200443 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050279 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05015 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.049369 } ], "others_margin": 0.338343 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20955272018909454, "model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0509 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.223258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.050862 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013597 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010525 } ], "others_margin": 0.017582 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.833507537841797, "model_output": 6.8335, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": 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3.9947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4294, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6965, "possession_lost": 1.0458, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2403, "aerial_lost": 0.284, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5728, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3326, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0011, "total_progression": 4.2626, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1793, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.99, "projection_minutes": 17.72, "minutes_scale": 0.846, "appearance_probability": 0.363 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 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0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1793, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2807, "tackles": 0.3213, "tackles_won": 0.2213, "clearances": 1.4426, "aerial_won": 1.1759, "total_shots": 0.1793, "rating": 6.8335, "minutes": 14.99, "total_pass": 10.7053, "accurate_pass": 9.8997, "duels_won": 0.6651, "total_long_balls": 0.5653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2826, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4703, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4294, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6965, "possession_lost": 1.0458, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2403, "aerial_lost": 0.284, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5728, "challenges_lost": 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.033365 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031754 } ], "others_margin": 0.029266 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6308159828186035, "model_output": 6.6308, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0573, "total": 6.6308, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0660, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2417, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0444, "shots_on_target": 0.1379, "total_shots": 0.3046, "rating": 6.6308, "minutes": 16.88, "total_pass": 3.1115, "accurate_pass": 1.6422, "duels_won": 0.4898, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6422, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.9795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.6469, "possession_lost": 2.9387, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4694, "aerial_won": 0.4898, "aerial_lost": 0.4898, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5762, "total_contest": 0.9795, 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"contribution": 0.0356 } ], "others": -0.1784, "total": 0.4166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.304987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.1234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046722 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.037634 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.03561 } ], "others_margin": -0.178438 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75588846206665, "model_output": 6.7559, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0554, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3482, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.4397, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4656, "tackles_won": 1.2308, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6452, "fouls_drawn": 1.518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3391 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0554, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3482, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0553, "assist_rate": 0.0553, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1003, "total_shots": 0.4436, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, 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1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3169, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "assist_rate": 0.0503, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0913, "total_shots": 0.4037, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3169, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0503, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0913, "total_shots": 0.4037, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1504, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.721 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.245, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471962 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110371 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0546 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047218 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.037309 } ], "others_margin": -0.136212 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6572679877281189, "model_output": 0.6573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4652 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1419 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0371 } ], "others": -0.0606, "total": 0.6573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.465237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.141877 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.046952 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.045801 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.037072 } ], "others_margin": -0.060685 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02572668343782425, "model_output": 0.0257, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.0257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.156508 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.108862 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.087506 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.057593 } ], "others_margin": -0.047308 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30849987268447876, "model_output": 0.3085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2719 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.3085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510103 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062651 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034884 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.03183 } ], "others_margin": -0.099028 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6239142417907715, "model_output": 6.6239, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0687, "total": 6.6239, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063446 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025265 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012919 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011631 } ], "others_margin": -0.068691 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0178, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0639, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "total_shots": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.314, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 14.43, "total_pass": 4.9288, "accurate_pass": 3.9223, "duels_won": 1.0195, "total_long_balls": 0.324, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0103, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0576, "touches": 8.8388, "possession_lost": 3.2108, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 1.3374, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.1634, "won_contest": 0.4643, "ball_recovery": 0.5313, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.3161, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0945, "tackles_won": 0.0203, "tackles": 0.2391, "clearances": 0.041, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0618, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0524, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 2.8769, "total_progression": 17.3396, "progressive_carries": 0.8233, "shots_off_target": 0.4195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0178, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 14.43, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0852, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0393, "after": 0.0343 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 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"possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 6.6055, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048357 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011405 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010977 } ], "others_margin": -0.052042 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0562, quality 0.805)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6199, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2327, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 13.35, "total_pass": 5.0254, "accurate_pass": 4.0832, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0885, "crosses_total": 0.6979, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.6657, "possession_lost": 1.6403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2967, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2967, "ball_carries": 1.7449, "total_progression": 9.7612, "progressive_carries": 0.6979, "shots_off_target": 0.3414 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 45000000, "quality_factor": 0.8047, "boost_factor": 1.0562, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.2777, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2327, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 13.35, "total_pass": 5.0254, "accurate_pass": 4.0832, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0885, "crosses_total": 0.696, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.6657, "possession_lost": 1.6403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2967, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 1.7449, "total_progression": 9.7612, "progressive_carries": 0.6979, "shots_off_target": 0.3414 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0027, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1483, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.3 to 17.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0948, "goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.99, "projection_minutes": 13.35, "minutes_scale": 1.2727, "appearance_probability": 0.749 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0948, "goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0948, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.749 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0948, "after": 0.0897 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2957, "fifa_rank": 1804.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0845, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0845, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "scorer_weight": 0.0937, "squad_weight_total": 2.007, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "appearance_weight": 0.749, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.58, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.58, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3892 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3534, "total_shots": 0.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0845, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0174, "squad_weight_total": 1.2634, "weight_share": 0.0138, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.749, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.2874, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2874, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2537, "blocked_own_goal": [ "João Pedro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Geovany Quenda": { "player_id": 1403165, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 172, "market_value": 45000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0845, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363884, "match_date": 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2957, "combined_rank_score": 983.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 163.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1804.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1497 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0301 } ], "others": -0.1178, "total": 0.5868, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498526 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149669 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052573 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05037 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030123 } ], "others_margin": -0.117802 } }, { "target": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506793 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091945 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.08115 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077406 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.069512 } ], "others_margin": -0.300836 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.605506420135498, "model_output": 6.6055, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 6.6055, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048357 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011405 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010977 } ], "others_margin": -0.052042 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0562, quality 0.805)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6199, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2327, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 13.35, "total_pass": 5.0254, "accurate_pass": 4.0832, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0885, "crosses_total": 0.6979, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.6657, "possession_lost": 1.6403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2967, 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0.0213, "key_pass": 0.2961, "rating": 6.6055, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 6.3956, "accurate_pass": 5.1965, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9306, "crosses_total": 0.8858, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4832, "possession_lost": 2.0875, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2999, "ball_carries": 2.2207, "total_progression": 12.4227, "progressive_carries": 0.8882, "shots_off_target": 0.4345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.99, "projection_minutes": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0356 } ], "others": -0.1784, "total": 0.4166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.304987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.1234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046722 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.037634 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.03561 } ], "others_margin": -0.178438 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75588846206665, "model_output": 6.7559, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 6.7559, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106283 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028648 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022009 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011024 } ], "others_margin": -0.004567 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0554, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3482, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.4397, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4656, "tackles_won": 1.2308, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6452, "fouls_drawn": 1.518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3391 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0554, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3482, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0553, "assist_rate": 0.0553, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1003, "total_shots": 0.4436, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, 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17.0 to 15.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3169, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "assists": 0.0503, "assist_rate": 0.0503, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.0913, "total_shots": 0.4037, "rating": 6.7559, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3169, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "assist_rate": 0.0503, 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.0257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.156508 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.108862 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.087506 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.057593 } ], "others_margin": -0.047308 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30849987268447876, "model_output": 0.3085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2719 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.3085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510103 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062651 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034884 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.03183 } ], "others_margin": -0.099028 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6239142417907715, "model_output": 6.6239, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0687, "total": 6.6239, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063446 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025265 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012919 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011631 } ], "others_margin": -0.068691 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0178, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0639, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "total_shots": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.314, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 14.43, "total_pass": 4.9288, "accurate_pass": 3.9223, "duels_won": 1.0195, "total_long_balls": 0.324, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0103, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0576, "touches": 8.8388, "possession_lost": 3.2108, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 1.3374, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.1634, "won_contest": 0.4643, "ball_recovery": 0.5313, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.3161, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0945, "tackles_won": 0.0203, "tackles": 0.2391, "clearances": 0.041, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0618, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0524, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 2.8769, "total_progression": 17.3396, "progressive_carries": 0.8233, "shots_off_target": 0.4195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0178, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 14.43, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.4165, xG scale 1.2629, xA scale 1.3652, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.789, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4165, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8518, "team_expected_assists": 1.1628, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2629, "xa_scale": 1.3652, "opponent_lambda": 1.042, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0852, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0393, "after": 0.0343 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0652, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "scorer_weight": 0.0742, "squad_weight_total": 2.007, "weight_share": 0.037, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.58, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.58, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3892 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 0.471, "rating": 6.6239, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6292, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0652, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0274, "squad_weight_total": 1.2634, "weight_share": 0.0217, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.2874, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2874, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2537, "blocked_own_goal": [ "João Pedro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.79, "expected_assists": 1.16, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 471, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.92, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5 } }, "Tottenham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Dominic Solanke": { "player_id": 361420, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 186, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2266, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2052, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0448, "finishing_factor": 1.0328, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363890, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3056, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6745, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", 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"total": 6.7268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042096 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016208 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012077 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010887 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009323 } ], "others_margin": -0.056832 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3261, "goals": 0.3398, "goal_rate": 0.3398, "shots_on_target": 0.7159, "total_shots": 2.1078, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2189, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6689, "fouls_drawn": 0.6913, "assists": 0.1661, "assist_rate": 0.1661, "interceptions": 0.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5842, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.5207, "xgot": 0.2953, "offsides": 0.4989, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.3919 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0032)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3261, "goals": 0.3387, "goal_rate": 0.3387, "shots_on_target": 0.7201, "total_shots": 2.1141, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assists": 0.1656, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.5207, "xgot": 0.2953, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.3919 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0032, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8818, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6913, "after": 0.7032 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1078, "after": 2.1141 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.4989, "after": 0.5044 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6689, "after": 1.6635 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3261, "goals": 0.3387, "goal_rate": 0.3387, "shots_on_target": 0.7201, "total_shots": 2.1141, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assists": 0.1656, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.5207, "xgot": 0.2953, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.3919 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2792, "goals": 0.29, "goal_rate": 0.29, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assists": 0.1656, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.4458, "xgot": 0.2528, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.1916, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "skill_edge": -0.0839, "height_edge": -0.014, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.8806, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 } ], "xg_override": 0.2792 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1141, "after": 1.8099 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3919, "after": 1.1916 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7201, "after": 0.6165 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5207, "after": 0.4458 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3387, "after": 0.29 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3261, "after": 0.2792 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2953, "after": 0.2528 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.4458, "xgot": 0.2528, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.1916, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2266, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.4458, "xgot": 0.2052, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.1916, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0328, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2792, "after": 0.2266 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0458 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2266, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.4458, 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"fifa_rank": 859.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2266, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, "fouls": 1.6635, "fouls_drawn": 0.7032, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0452, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.1184, "blocks": 0.4392, "big_chances_created": 0.0737, "big_chances_missed": 0.4458, "xgot": 0.2052, "offsides": 0.5044, "ball_carries": 8.5421, "total_progression": 26.2414, "progressive_carries": 2.1232, "shots_off_target": 1.1916, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0328, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2028, "goal_rate": 0.29, "scorer_weight": 0.234, "squad_weight_total": 1.0921, "weight_share": 0.2143, "finishing_factor": 1.0328, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2266, "goal_rate": 0.29, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.8099, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "key_pass": 0.6821, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 13.4, "accurate_pass": 10.7091, "duels_won": 3.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.1075, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0407, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6414, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.6353, "possession_lost": 7.6889, "dispossessed": 1.1336, "duels_lost": 6.6884, "aerial_lost": 2.6981, "total_contest": 1.5346, "won_contest": 0.6574, "ball_recovery": 3.2522, "challenges_lost": 0.3559, 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072899 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050075 } ], "others_margin": -0.12059 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7425923347473145, "model_output": 0.7426, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1964 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0013, "total": 0.7426, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253617 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.059447 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.03606 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030128 } ], "others_margin": 0.001632 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759800434112549, "model_output": 6.7598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 6.7598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052987 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013661 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012657 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010058 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.006526 } ], "others_margin": -0.043876 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1791, "goals": 0.209, "goal_rate": 0.209, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.8941, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "key_pass": 0.7543, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 78.9, "total_pass": 17.0253, "accurate_pass": 15.2668, "duels_won": 3.9464, "total_long_balls": 0.4199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2169, "crosses_total": 1.5249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.1916, "possession_lost": 8.9591, "dispossessed": 1.9912, "duels_lost": 6.6345, "aerial_lost": 1.1067, "total_contest": 3.1983, "won_contest": 1.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7737, "challenges_lost": 0.7, "fouls": 1.5615, "fouls_drawn": 1.1695, "assists": 0.1416, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles_won": 0.5932, "tackles": 0.8114, "clearances": 0.0802, "blocks": 0.0802, "big_chances_created": 0.058, "big_chances_missed": 0.2281, "xgot": 0.1082, "offsides": 0.4906, "ball_carries": 10.0445, "total_progression": 34.7681, "progressive_carries": 1.5718, "shots_off_target": 1.3029 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1791, "goals": 0.209, "goal_rate": 0.209, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.8941, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "key_pass": 0.7543, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 78.9, "total_pass": 17.0253, "accurate_pass": 15.2668, "duels_won": 3.9464, "total_long_balls": 0.4199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2169, 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"expected_assists": 0.0534, "key_pass": 0.7543, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 78.9, "total_pass": 17.0253, "accurate_pass": 15.2668, "duels_won": 3.9464, "total_long_balls": 0.4199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2169, "crosses_total": 1.5249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.1916, "possession_lost": 8.9591, "dispossessed": 1.9912, "duels_lost": 6.6345, "aerial_lost": 1.1067, "total_contest": 3.1983, "won_contest": 1.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7737, "challenges_lost": 0.7, "fouls": 1.5615, "fouls_drawn": 1.1695, "assists": 0.1416, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles_won": 0.5932, "tackles": 0.8114, "clearances": 0.0802, "blocks": 0.0802, "big_chances_created": 0.058, "big_chances_missed": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.1012, "offsides": 0.4906, "ball_carries": 10.0445, "total_progression": 34.7681, "progressive_carries": 1.5718, "shots_off_target": 1.2181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9349, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9349, "skill_edge": -0.0183, "height_edge": -0.026, "attacker_skill": 0.8399, "defender_skill": 0.8806, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 } ], "xg_override": 0.1674 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8941, "after": 1.7708 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3029, "after": 1.2181 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5911, "after": 0.5526 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2281, "after": 0.2133 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.209, "after": 0.1954 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1791, "after": 0.1674 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1082, "after": 0.1012 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.1954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5526, "total_shots": 1.7708, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "key_pass": 0.7543, 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"crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goal_rate": 0.1954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5526, "total_shots": 1.7708, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.7543, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 78.9, "total_pass": 17.0253, "accurate_pass": 15.2668, "duels_won": 3.9464, "total_long_balls": 0.4199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2169, "crosses_total": 1.5249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.1916, "possession_lost": 8.9591, "dispossessed": 1.9912, "duels_lost": 6.6345, "aerial_lost": 1.1067, "total_contest": 3.1983, "won_contest": 1.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7737, "challenges_lost": 0.7, "fouls": 1.5615, "fouls_drawn": 1.1695, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles_won": 0.5932, "tackles": 0.8114, "clearances": 0.0802, "blocks": 0.0802, "big_chances_created": 0.058, "big_chances_missed": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0821, "offsides": 0.4906, "ball_carries": 10.0445, "total_progression": 34.7681, "progressive_carries": 1.5718, "shots_off_target": 1.2181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9349, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1674, "after": 0.1359 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0534, "after": 0.0433 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 382.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goal_rate": 0.1954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5526, "total_shots": 1.7708, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.7543, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 78.9, "total_pass": 17.0253, "accurate_pass": 15.2668, "duels_won": 3.9464, "total_long_balls": 0.4199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2169, "crosses_total": 1.5249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.1916, "possession_lost": 8.9591, "dispossessed": 1.9912, "duels_lost": 6.6345, "aerial_lost": 1.1067, "total_contest": 3.1983, "won_contest": 1.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7737, "challenges_lost": 0.7, "fouls": 1.5615, "fouls_drawn": 1.1695, "assist_rate": 0.1416, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2023, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 6.8482, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031925 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01649 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008769 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.006227 } ], "others_margin": -0.018312 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7023, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "assists": 0.0725, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0879, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.9431, "rating": 6.8482, "minutes": 77.58, "total_pass": 36.0496, "accurate_pass": 32.0328, "duels_won": 4.9028, "total_long_balls": 1.5435, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0874, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2973, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7354, "crosses_total": 1.3828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1773, "touches": 51.6356, "possession_lost": 9.2034, "dispossessed": 1.3667, "duels_lost": 5.166, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9162, "interceptions": 1.2631, "tackles_won": 1.4093, "tackles": 2.0709, "clearances": 0.2621, "total_contest": 1.4007, "won_contest": 0.5325, "challenges_lost": 0.4724, "fouls": 1.5707, "fouls_drawn": 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1.5707, "fouls_drawn": 1.8355, "blocks": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.0497, "big_chances_missed": 0.1888, "xgot": 0.1127, "ball_carries": 12.1266, "total_progression": 8.0269, "progressive_carries": 0.4519, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Pedro Neto, Morgan Rogers", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7023, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0793, "goal_rate": 0.0879, "goals": 0, 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1515 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": -0.0863, "total": 1.0558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151471 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028358 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025913 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025883 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.022066 } ], "others_margin": 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6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.1412 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101381 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.033191 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029684 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028296 } ], "others_margin": 0.101279 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.275, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.3343, "total_shots": 1.1699, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 59.5147, "accurate_pass": 52.5683, "duels_won": 4.141, "total_long_balls": 3.1849, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4157, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9179, "crosses_total": 1.5217, "crosses_accurate": 0.5356, "touches": 74.7417, "possession_lost": 10.355, "dispossessed": 0.8633, "duels_lost": 2.5758, "aerial_won": 0.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.2657, "interceptions": 0.7781, "tackles_won": 1.0043, "tackles": 1.9763, "clearances": 1.6652, "total_contest": 0.7649, "won_contest": 0.4215, "challenges_lost": 0.552, "fouls": 0.6749, "fouls_drawn": 1.1704, "blocks": 0.3246, "big_chances_created": 0.2733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0097, "xgot": 0.0143, "ball_carries": 20.6674, "total_progression": 71.2156, "progressive_carries": 1.7288, "shots_off_target": 0.8356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 83000000, "quality_factor": 0.8845, "boost_factor": 1.0121, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.275, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "assists": 0.1196, "assist_rate": 0.1196, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.0889, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 1.1732, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 59.5147, "accurate_pass": 52.5683, "duels_won": 4.141, "total_long_balls": 3.1849, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4157, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9179, "crosses_total": 1.5178, "crosses_accurate": 0.5356, "touches": 74.7417, "possession_lost": 10.355, "dispossessed": 0.8633, "duels_lost": 2.5758, "aerial_won": 0.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.2657, "interceptions": 0.776, "tackles_won": 1.0003, "tackles": 1.9763, "clearances": 1.6652, "total_contest": 0.7649, "won_contest": 0.4215, "challenges_lost": 0.552, "fouls": 0.6737, "fouls_drawn": 1.1738, "blocks": 0.3246, "big_chances_created": 0.2733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0097, "xgot": 0.0143, "ball_carries": 20.6674, "total_progression": 71.2156, "progressive_carries": 1.7288, "shots_off_target": 0.8356 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9503, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.275, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "assists": 0.1196, "assist_rate": 0.1196, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.0889, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 1.1732, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 59.5147, "accurate_pass": 52.5683, "duels_won": 4.141, "total_long_balls": 3.1849, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4157, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9179, "crosses_total": 1.5178, "crosses_accurate": 0.5356, "touches": 74.7417, "possession_lost": 10.355, "dispossessed": 0.8633, "duels_lost": 2.5758, "aerial_won": 0.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.2657, "interceptions": 0.776, "tackles_won": 1.0003, "tackles": 1.9763, "clearances": 1.6652, "total_contest": 0.7649, "won_contest": 0.4215, "challenges_lost": 0.552, "fouls": 0.6737, "fouls_drawn": 1.1738, 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"assist_rate": 0.1196, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0851, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3217, "total_shots": 1.1235, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 59.5147, "accurate_pass": 52.5683, "duels_won": 4.141, "total_long_balls": 3.1849, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4157, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9179, "crosses_total": 1.5178, "crosses_accurate": 0.5356, "touches": 74.7417, "possession_lost": 10.355, "dispossessed": 0.8633, "duels_lost": 2.5758, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2657, "interceptions": 0.776, "tackles_won": 1.0003, "tackles": 1.9763, "clearances": 1.6652, "total_contest": 0.7649, "won_contest": 0.4215, "challenges_lost": 0.552, "fouls": 0.6737, "fouls_drawn": 1.1738, "blocks": 0.3246, "big_chances_created": 0.2733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0093, "xgot": 0.0137, "ball_carries": 20.6674, "total_progression": 71.2156, 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"EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.275, "expected_assists": 0.1285, "assist_rate": 0.1196, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.0851, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3217, "total_shots": 1.1235, "rating": 7.2911, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 59.5147, "accurate_pass": 52.5683, "duels_won": 4.141, "total_long_balls": 3.1849, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4157, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9179, "crosses_total": 1.5178, "crosses_accurate": 0.5356, "touches": 74.7417, "possession_lost": 10.355, "dispossessed": 0.8633, "duels_lost": 2.5758, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2657, "interceptions": 0.776, "tackles_won": 1.0003, "tackles": 1.9763, "clearances": 1.6652, "total_contest": 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"totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": 0.5108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059566 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.014578 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013733 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01162 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011322 } ], "others_margin": 0.004298 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8823065757751465, "model_output": 6.8823, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 6.8823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.054619 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.025564 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.009569 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009361 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.008913 } ], "others_margin": 0.002621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8619, "tackles": 1.1614, "tackles_won": 0.6771, "clearances": 3.7791, "aerial_won": 1.8274, "total_shots": 0.5161, "rating": 6.8823, "minutes": 88.18, "total_pass": 66.3016, "accurate_pass": 62.239, "duels_won": 4.7372, "total_long_balls": 2.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.2972, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.8197, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4195, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.4386, "possession_lost": 4.8772, "dispossessed": 0.2755, "duels_lost": 3.1377, "aerial_lost": 1.552, "total_contest": 0.3088, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 3.6746, "challenges_lost": 0.3112, "fouls": 1.0465, "fouls_drawn": 1.1467, "blocks": 0.5156, "goals": 0.0132, 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"blocks": 0.5156, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.078, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "shots_on_target": 0.0213, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 26.9133, "total_progression": 109.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.3432, "key_pass": 0.042, "shots_off_target": 0.4946, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8625, "tackles": 1.1614, "tackles_won": 0.6785, "clearances": 3.7791, "aerial_won": 1.8274, "total_shots": 0.5159, "rating": 6.8823, "minutes": 88.18, "total_pass": 66.3016, "accurate_pass": 62.239, "duels_won": 4.7372, "total_long_balls": 2.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.2972, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.8197, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4195, "crosses_total": 0.0351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.4386, "possession_lost": 4.8772, "dispossessed": 0.2755, "duels_lost": 3.1377, "aerial_lost": 1.552, "total_contest": 0.3088, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 3.6746, "challenges_lost": 0.3112, "fouls": 1.0508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1459, "blocks": 0.5156, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.0213, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0098, "ball_carries": 26.9133, "total_progression": 109.5362, "progressive_carries": 1.3432, "key_pass": 0.042, "shots_off_target": 0.4946, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9121 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, 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0.1148, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.2299, "big_chances_created": 0.1232, "xgot": 0.1039, "ball_carries": 39.4834, "total_progression": 226.1004, "progressive_carries": 3.6762, "key_pass": 0.7418, "shots_off_target": 0.3639, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2572, "tackles": 1.6665, "tackles_won": 0.977, "clearances": 4.7747, "aerial_won": 2.2247, "total_shots": 0.5938, "rating": 7.2122, "minutes": 89.81, "total_pass": 79.3667, "accurate_pass": 70.928, 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"importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1282 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.0651, "total": 0.7151, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057695 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03673 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024506 } ], "others_margin": -0.065091 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.779728412628174, "model_output": 6.7797, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0312, "total": 6.7797, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039622 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024384 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015389 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008746 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.005855 } ], "others_margin": -0.031094 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6758, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0526, "shots_on_target": 0.1967, "total_shots": 0.7225, "rating": 6.7797, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 31.0934, "accurate_pass": 26.0524, "duels_won": 3.5393, "total_long_balls": 2.098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8444, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3315, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4433, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7619, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6091, "crosses_total": 1.2512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1141, "touches": 47.9666, "possession_lost": 9.9115, "dispossessed": 0.6792, "duels_lost": 3.1195, "aerial_won": 0.5464, "aerial_lost": 0.4525, "interceptions": 1.4151, "tackles_won": 0.9393, "tackles": 1.2542, "clearances": 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0.9752, "after": 0.9879 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7225, "after": 0.7149 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6758, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.7204, "rating": 6.7797, "minutes": 83.35, "total_pass": 31.0934, "accurate_pass": 26.0524, "duels_won": 3.5393, "total_long_balls": 2.098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8444, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3315, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4433, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7619, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6091, "crosses_total": 1.2495, "crosses_accurate": 0.1141, "touches": 47.9666, "possession_lost": 9.9115, "dispossessed": 0.6792, "duels_lost": 3.1195, "aerial_won": 0.5464, "aerial_lost": 0.4525, "interceptions": 1.4117, "tackles_won": 0.9351, "tackles": 1.2542, "clearances": 1.5909, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3491 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:04:55.355626+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-19", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1672, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1421, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1208, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1027, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0873, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0742, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0631, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0536, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0456, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0387, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 14.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.6084, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9431, "saves": 1.86, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.1666, "save_contribution": 1.5424, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.3491 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.722560405731201, "model_output": 2.7226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": 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-0.14068657159805298, "model_output": -0.1407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0403 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": -0.1407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.046684 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.031676 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.020567 }, { "name": 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"margin": -0.029846 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021244 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017475 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014515 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.013257 } ], "others_margin": -0.001162 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7417, "goals_prevented": -0.142, "rating": 6.9548, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.155, "accurate_pass": 20.5341, "total_long_balls": 13.2217, "accurate_long_balls": 3.768, "touches": 39.0327, "clearances": 1.1364, "ball_recovery": 6.2164, "high_claims": 0.7821, "punches": 0.9358, "aerial_won": 0.2393, "sweeper_actions": 0.8325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8325, "saves_inside_box": 1.5383, "possession_lost": 9.6958, "duels_won": 0.52, "duels_lost": 0.1498, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2743, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6244, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5161, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7268, "shots_faced": 16.4, "expected_saves": 4.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.38, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Morgan Rogers", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7417, "goals_prevented": -0.142, "rating": 6.9548, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.155, "accurate_pass": 20.5341, "total_long_balls": 13.2217, "accurate_long_balls": 3.768, "touches": 39.0327, "clearances": 1.1364, "ball_recovery": 6.2164, "high_claims": 0.7821, "punches": 0.9358, "aerial_won": 0.2393, "sweeper_actions": 0.8325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8325, "saves_inside_box": 1.5383, "possession_lost": 9.6958, "duels_won": 0.52, "duels_lost": 0.1498, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2743, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6244, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5161, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7268, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Morgan Rogers", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 16.4, "after": 17.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.01, "after": 4.16 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.38, "after": 1.43 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1821, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1027, "expected_assists": 0.1628, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 221, "combined_rank_score": 167.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 60.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.66, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 274.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8332, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedro Porro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jeremías Ledesma", "ranking": 216 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Neves", "ranking": 217 }, { "player_name": "Fagner", "ranking": 218 }, { "player_name": "Javohir Ilyosov", "ranking": 219 }, { "player_name": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "ranking": 220 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Garro", "ranking": 222 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 223 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 }, { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 226 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.971976588065374, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.246, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0102, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Tottenham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (37 historical appearances) to 15.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3596, "tackles": 0.9368, "tackles_won": 0.6834, "clearances": 0.9129, "aerial_won": 0.2778, "total_shots": 0.5376, "rating": 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"margin": -0.422696 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.073126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.072335 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.030732 } ], "others_margin": -0.224509 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5376040935516357, "model_output": 0.5376, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3154 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.5376, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.346491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.315439 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.0474 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.021807 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018375 } ], "others_margin": -0.012356 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.833198070526123, "model_output": 6.8332, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], 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"totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.064463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057944 } ], "others_margin": -0.157363 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3024338483810425, "model_output": 0.3024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7758 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1516 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 0.3024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.821211 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.28598 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.123844 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.094469 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.037431 } ], "others_margin": -0.158774 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.12064115703105927, "model_output": 0.1206, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1963 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.1206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088417 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02133 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.009552 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008765 } ], "others_margin": -0.029921 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.620786190032959, "model_output": 6.6208, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0668, "total": 6.6208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045698 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014829 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014488 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014403 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013436 } ], "others_margin": -0.066744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3399, "tackles": 0.7199, "tackles_won": 0.4339, "clearances": 0.7698, "aerial_won": 0.3055, "total_shots": 0.1219, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9703, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6845, "fouls_drawn": 0.6483, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1087, "assist_rate": 0.1087, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.1218 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0102, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3391, "tackles": 0.7199, "tackles_won": 0.4349, "clearances": 0.7698, "aerial_won": 0.3055, "total_shots": 0.1216, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9721, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6849, "fouls_drawn": 0.6488, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.1218 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2647, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 23.82, "minutes_scale": 0.5995, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0241 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1635, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.583901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.255744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.137474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.046592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036686 } ], "others_margin": 0.083178 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2633490562438965, "model_output": 0.2633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1634 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0453 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0255 } ], "others": 0.008, "total": 0.8624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.358231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045315 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.025715 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.025517 } ], "others_margin": 0.007924 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78196907043457, "model_output": 6.782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0999 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0256, "total": 6.782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010575 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.007998 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007438 } ], "others_margin": 0.025716 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.091, "assists": 0.1149, "assist_rate": 0.1149, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.2668, "total_shots": 0.8738, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, "total_contest": 1.3411, "won_contest": 0.8439, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 5.8059, "total_progression": 18.0009, "progressive_carries": 1.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.607 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assists": 0.106, "assist_rate": 0.106, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.39, "projection_minutes": 25.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9227, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assists": 0.106, "assist_rate": 0.106, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0379, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "creation_factor": 1.1642 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0704, "after": 0.0322 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.084, "after": 0.0384 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, 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{ "player_name": "Zafar Hakimov", "ranking": 1959 }, { "player_name": "Jani Atanasov", "ranking": 1960 }, { "player_name": "Isi", "ranking": 1961 }, { "player_name": "Can Uzun", "ranking": 1962 }, { "player_name": "Dan Ndoye", "ranking": 1963 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Marín", "ranking": 1965 }, { "player_name": "Reno Piscopo", "ranking": 1966 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kang In", "ranking": 1967 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Tete", "ranking": 1968 }, { "player_name": "Djed Spence", "ranking": 1969 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", 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{ "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02834 } ], "others_margin": -0.127483 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1455155611038208, "model_output": 0.1455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.1455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.565613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26904 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.155946 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103225 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02679 } ], "others_margin": 0.002023 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3519459068775177, "model_output": 0.3519, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3665 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 0.3519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.36654 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.224961 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037289 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020191 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.014506 } ], "others_margin": 0.018537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.677145004272461, "model_output": 6.6771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": 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0.0801, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0801, "xgot": 0.0464, "ball_carries": 5.1706, "total_progression": 12.4904, "progressive_carries": 0.6015, "shots_off_target": 0.2622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 18.62, "minutes_scale": 1.2542, "appearance_probability": 0.335 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4158, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0573, "assist_rate": 0.0573, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "total_shots": 0.4465, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.4627, "accurate_pass": 9.9131, "duels_won": 1.9253, "total_long_balls": 0.6117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1595, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1751, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.852, 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0951, "total": 6.95, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067092 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040975 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037979 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030284 } ], "others_margin": 0.095126 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.284, "total_shots": 0.8566, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "key_pass": 0.69, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.5726 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.027, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0863, "after": 0.0441 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1274, "after": 0.0652 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013696 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.010736 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010018 } ], "others_margin": -0.068949 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 0.6087, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "key_pass": 0.3217, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.143, "total_progression": 19.6452, "progressive_carries": 1.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.2781 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0715, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 18.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4297, "appearance_probability": 0.622 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1362, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0276, "after": 0.0139 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, 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"shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0651, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0137, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0137, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0111, "squad_weight_total": 0.7886, "weight_share": 0.0141, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sávio": { "player_id": 1046795, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.1729, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0297 } ], "others": 0.1082, "total": 0.68, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.567399 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.131714 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.096127 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.053306 } ], "others_margin": 0.173481 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9499897956848145, "model_output": 6.95, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0951, "total": 6.95, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067092 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040975 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037979 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030284 } ], "others_margin": 0.095126 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.284, "total_shots": 0.8566, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "key_pass": 0.69, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.5726 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.027, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0863, "after": 0.0441 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1274, "after": 0.0652 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.027, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.8589, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1302, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 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"Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.2849, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 1.035, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.027, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 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"team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1635, "combined_rank_score": 663.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6208, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Destiny Udogie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yu-chan Lee", "ranking": 1630 }, { "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking": 1631 }, { "player_name": "Ozan Kabak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Fausto Grillo", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Fayziev", "ranking": 1634 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jae-yul Yeo", "ranking": 1636 }, { "player_name": "Paul Mbong", "ranking": 1637 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Fernández", "ranking": 1638 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", 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0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4469 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0157, "total": 0.4295, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.752633 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078407 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.033831 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027698 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.027367 } ], "others_margin": -0.035977 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7619981169700623, "model_output": 0.762, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0041 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.102 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0629 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0532 } ], "others": -0.1299, "total": 0.762, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.879774 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.247011 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.096378 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.064463 }, { "name": 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"margin": -0.196314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088417 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02133 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.009552 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008765 } ], "others_margin": -0.029921 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.620786190032959, "model_output": 6.6208, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0668, "total": 6.6208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045698 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014829 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014488 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014403 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013436 } ], "others_margin": -0.066744 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3399, "tackles": 0.7199, "tackles_won": 0.4339, "clearances": 0.7698, "aerial_won": 0.3055, "total_shots": 0.1219, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9703, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6845, "fouls_drawn": 0.6483, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1087, "assist_rate": 0.1087, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.1218 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0102, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3391, "tackles": 0.7199, "tackles_won": 0.4349, "clearances": 0.7698, "aerial_won": 0.3055, "total_shots": 0.1216, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9721, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6849, "fouls_drawn": 0.6488, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.1218 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2647, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 23.82, "minutes_scale": 0.5995, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0241 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1635, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0005, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0005, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.0921, "weight_share": 0.0009, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2033, "tackles": 0.4316, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "clearances": 0.4615, "aerial_won": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.073, "rating": 6.6208, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0005, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0005, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0236, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.065, "provider_weight": 0.0284, "squad_weight_total": 0.7886, "weight_share": 0.036, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Mykhailo Mudryk": { "player_id": 958966, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 175, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0651, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0137, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, 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"margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048817 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013696 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.010736 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010018 } ], "others_margin": -0.068949 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 0.6087, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "key_pass": 0.3217, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.143, "total_progression": 19.6452, "progressive_carries": 1.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.2781 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0715, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 18.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4297, "appearance_probability": 0.622 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1362, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0276, "after": 0.0139 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8185, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 0.8702, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.4599, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, 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"margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.358231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045315 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.025715 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.025517 } ], "others_margin": 0.007924 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78196907043457, "model_output": 6.782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0999 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0256, "total": 6.782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010575 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.007998 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007438 } ], "others_margin": 0.025716 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8277, "expected_assists": 0.091, "assists": 0.1149, "assist_rate": 0.1149, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.2668, "total_shots": 0.8738, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, "total_contest": 1.3411, "won_contest": 0.8439, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 5.8059, "total_progression": 18.0009, "progressive_carries": 1.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.607 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assists": 0.106, "assist_rate": 0.106, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.39, "projection_minutes": 25.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9227, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assists": 0.106, "assist_rate": 0.106, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.084, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.2837, xG scale 0.8117, xA scale 0.8117, team xA 0.75 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0379, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "creation_factor": 1.1642 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.042, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2837, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9299, "team_expected_assists": 0.7549, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8117, "xa_scale": 0.8117, "opponent_lambda": 1.789, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0704, "after": 0.0322 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.084, "after": 0.0384 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0379, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "creation_factor": 1.1642, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 654, "fifa_rank": 513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0379, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0313, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "creation_factor": 1.1642, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0313, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "scorer_weight": 0.0376, "squad_weight_total": 1.0921, "weight_share": 0.0344, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7637, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.8063, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0379, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.5601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0313, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0371, "finishing_factor": 1.1678, "creation_factor": 1.1642, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.106, "provider_weight": 0.0447, "squad_weight_total": 0.7886, "weight_share": 0.0567, "creation_factor": 1.1642, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.75, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 485, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.92, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.773, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "xg_contribution": 0.4265, "xg_multiplier": 1.0427, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Gallagher", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (SS) is evenly matched against Conor Gallagher and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.426 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.773, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.226, "xg_contribution": 0.1375, "xg_multiplier": 0.9354, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Gallagher", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Conor Gallagher and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 101000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.894, "defenders": [ "Antonín Kinský" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.62, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.2365, "xg_multiplier": 1.0707, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonín Kinský", "role": "GK", "market_value": 18900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (LWB) is slightly favored against Antonín Kinský in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€101M vs €19M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.237 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Henderson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0762, "xg_multiplier": 0.9676, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Henderson (RWB) is evenly matched against Andy Robertson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Conor Gallagher" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.532, "xg_contribution": 0.2531, "xg_multiplier": 1.1202, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Gallagher", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.468 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CM) is slightly favored against Conor Gallagher in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.253 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Conor Gallagher" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.495, "xg_contribution": 0.0387, "xg_multiplier": 1.0664, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Gallagher", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.505 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) is slightly favored against Conor Gallagher in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mateus Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.84, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.0758, "xg_multiplier": 0.9422, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateus Fernandes (LW) is evenly matched against Levi Colwill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 83000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0678, "xg_multiplier": 0.9576, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Rogers", "role": "CM", "market_value": 115000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (CAM) is evenly matched against Morgan Rogers in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€83M vs €115M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1674, "xg_multiplier": 0.9349, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.167 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Solanke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2792, "xg_multiplier": 0.8561, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Solanke (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €60M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.279 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mohammed Kudus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1143, "xg_multiplier": 0.8809, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammed Kudus (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.806, "away_midfield_power": 0.831, "home_creative_power": 0.831, "away_creative_power": 0.756, "home_defensive_power": 0.76, "away_defensive_power": 0.749, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.492, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Cole Palmer", "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson", "Morgan Rogers" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Mateus Fernandes", "Sandro Tonali", "Archie Gray" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Rogers vs Sandro Tonali", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.002, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.001 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.789, "away_lambda": 1.042, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Antonín Kinský", "Archie Gray" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Andy Robertson", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Conor Gallagher", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Conor Gallagher" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mike Penders": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Josh Acheampong": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Solanke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jorrel Hato": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Conor Gallagher": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Pedro Neto", "Morgan Rogers", "Moisés Caicedo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominic Solanke": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohammed Kudus": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Archie Gray": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Rogers vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.17, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9358, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9159, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1534, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.918, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8846, "home_midfield_factor": 1.002, "away_midfield_factor": 1.001, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8084, "away_avg_quality": 0.7753, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0331, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.346, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3871, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2988, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1001, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0551, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.032, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1685, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2389 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 1.2414 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1793 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.3562 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0986, "result": 1.4899 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9358, "result": 1.3942 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.918, "result": 1.2799 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.4599 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4599, "result": 1.4599, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1001, "factor": 1.0551, "pre": 1.4599, "result": 1.5402 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5402 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1868, "result": 1.7268 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.7268 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7268, "result": 1.727, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0357, "pre": 1.727, "result": 1.7887, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.789 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.789 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.789, "result": 1.789, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.789 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7045, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8909 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.001, "result": 0.8918 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.9364 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9364 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9697, "result": 0.908 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9159, "result": 0.8316 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8846, "result": 0.7357 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1534, "result": 0.8891 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8891, "result": 0.8891, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1001, "factor": 0.968, "pre": 0.8891, "result": 0.8606 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8606 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.081 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.081 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.081, "result": 1.081, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9643, "pre": 1.081, "result": 1.0424, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.042 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.042 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.042, "result": 1.042, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.042 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1868, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.789, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.042, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7268, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.081, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.789, "final_away_lambda": 1.042 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0986, "attack_index": 1.318, "defense_concede_index": 0.945, "form_multiplier": 1.03, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.91, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.37, "team_ppg": 1.63, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9697, "attack_index": 0.807, "defense_concede_index": 1.165, "form_multiplier": 0.97, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.17, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.69, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.63 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Chelsea vs Tottenham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.727, Away 1.081). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.789, Away 1.042 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.789, "away_lambda": 1.042, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.727, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.081 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:32:05Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }